To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information ...To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.展开更多
【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,【方法】以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(information value model,IV)与随机森林模型(random forest,RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引...【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,【方法】以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(information value model,IV)与随机森林模型(random forest,RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引入空间约束采样策略优化负样本选取策略,开展滑坡易发性评价。通过ROC曲线和AUC值对3种模型进行对比分析,同时提出综合性能指数用于综合评价模型表现。【结果】1)IV-RF耦合模型表现优于单一模型,AUC=0.952,综合性能指数(Accuracy+F1+MCC)为2.593。极高-高易发区滑坡点分布密集,极低-低易发区滑坡点极少,验证模型具有较高的空间预测精度。2)工程地质岩组因子是影响研究区滑坡发育最重要的评价因子之一。【结论】IV-RF耦合模型结合IV的数据定量解译与RF的非线性识别能力,可有效提升模型识别精度,研究结果可为研究区滑坡灾害风险防控、水土保持和国土空间规划提供科学依据。展开更多
基金supported by the project of the China Geological Survey(DD20230591).
文摘To enhance the prediction accuracy of landslides in in Longyan City,China,this study developed a methodology for geologic hazard susceptibility assessment based on a coupled model composed of a Geographic Information System(GIS)with integrated spatial data,a frequency ratio(FR)model,and a random forest(RF)model(also referred to as the coupled FR-RF model).The coupled FR-RF model was constructed based on the analysis of nine influential factors,including distance from roads,normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI),and slope.The performance of the coupled FR-RF model was assessed using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)and Precision-Recall(PR)curves,yielding Area Under the Curve(AUC)values of 0.93 and 0.95,which indicate high predictive accuracy and reliability for geological hazard forecasting.Based on the model predictions,five susceptibility levels were determined in the study area,providing crucial spatial information for geologic hazard prevention and control.The contributions of various influential factors to landslide susceptibility were determined using SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)analysis and the Gini index,enhancing the model interpretability and transparency.Additionally,this study discussed the limitations of the coupled FR-RF model and the prospects for its improvement using new technologies.This study provides an innovative method and theoretical support for geologic hazard prediction and management,holding promising prospects for application.
文摘【目的】耒阳市滑坡灾害频发,对人民生命财产和生态安全构成严重威胁。为提高滑坡易发性评价的精度,【方法】以湖南省耒阳市为研究区,构建信息量模型(information value model,IV)与随机森林模型(random forest,RF)耦合的IV-RF模型,引入空间约束采样策略优化负样本选取策略,开展滑坡易发性评价。通过ROC曲线和AUC值对3种模型进行对比分析,同时提出综合性能指数用于综合评价模型表现。【结果】1)IV-RF耦合模型表现优于单一模型,AUC=0.952,综合性能指数(Accuracy+F1+MCC)为2.593。极高-高易发区滑坡点分布密集,极低-低易发区滑坡点极少,验证模型具有较高的空间预测精度。2)工程地质岩组因子是影响研究区滑坡发育最重要的评价因子之一。【结论】IV-RF耦合模型结合IV的数据定量解译与RF的非线性识别能力,可有效提升模型识别精度,研究结果可为研究区滑坡灾害风险防控、水土保持和国土空间规划提供科学依据。
