In this paper, the status quo and modeling principles of R/S analysis of non-linear theory are introduced and reviewed. Given the hydro-geological conditions of the Wutongzhuang coal mine, Hurst exponents of mine infl...In this paper, the status quo and modeling principles of R/S analysis of non-linear theory are introduced and reviewed. Given the hydro-geological conditions of the Wutongzhuang coal mine, Hurst exponents of mine inflow for the main shaft, venti- lating shaft and auxiliary shaft were obtained using R/S analysis, which are 0.772 0, 0.824 7 and 0.905 1 respectively. Since all of the three Hurst exponents are larger than 0.5, it can be concluded that the trend of mine inflow are a long-term as well as persistent problem. Based on the level of duration, the shafts can be listed in decreasing order as the auxiliary shaft, the ventilation shaft and the main shaft, which appears identical with the actual situation of the mine inflow. With R/S analysis, a new method for long-term forecasting of mine inflows is provided.展开更多
This paper evaluates the performances of the models that incorporate forecasting inflow for cascaded hydropower reservoirs operation. These models are constructed separately on the concepts of explicit stochastic opti...This paper evaluates the performances of the models that incorporate forecasting inflow for cascaded hydropower reservoirs operation. These models are constructed separately on the concepts of explicit stochastic optimization （ESO） and implicit sto- chastic optimization （ISO） as well as parametefization-simulation-optimization （PSO）. Firstly, the aggregation-disaggregation method is implemented in ESO models to reduce the complexity of stochastic dynamic programming （SDP）. And the aggre- gate flow SDP （AF-SDP） and aggregation-disaggregation SDP （AD-SDP） are constructed respectively. Secondly, in ISO mod- el, decision tree is the well-known and widespread algorithm. The algorithm C 5.0 is selected to extract the if-then-else rules for reservoir operation. Thirdly, based on the PSO model, the hedging rule curves （HRCs） are pre-defined by fusing the storage and inflow as state variable. The parameters of the HRCs are determined by using the simulation-optimization model. Finally, China＇s Hun River cascade hydropower reservoirs system is taken as an example to illustrate the efficiency and reliability of the models. In addition, the values of quantitative precipitation forecasts of the global forecast system （10 days lead-time） are implemented to forecast the 10 days inflow.展开更多
基金Project 40472146 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘In this paper, the status quo and modeling principles of R/S analysis of non-linear theory are introduced and reviewed. Given the hydro-geological conditions of the Wutongzhuang coal mine, Hurst exponents of mine inflow for the main shaft, venti- lating shaft and auxiliary shaft were obtained using R/S analysis, which are 0.772 0, 0.824 7 and 0.905 1 respectively. Since all of the three Hurst exponents are larger than 0.5, it can be concluded that the trend of mine inflow are a long-term as well as persistent problem. Based on the level of duration, the shafts can be listed in decreasing order as the auxiliary shaft, the ventilation shaft and the main shaft, which appears identical with the actual situation of the mine inflow. With R/S analysis, a new method for long-term forecasting of mine inflows is provided.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51379027,51109025)National Basic Research Program of China("973" project)(Grant No.2013CB036401)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.DUT13JS06)Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(Grant No.20100041120004)the Hun River Cas-cade Hydropower Reservoirs Development Company,Ltd
文摘This paper evaluates the performances of the models that incorporate forecasting inflow for cascaded hydropower reservoirs operation. These models are constructed separately on the concepts of explicit stochastic optimization （ESO） and implicit sto- chastic optimization （ISO） as well as parametefization-simulation-optimization （PSO）. Firstly, the aggregation-disaggregation method is implemented in ESO models to reduce the complexity of stochastic dynamic programming （SDP）. And the aggre- gate flow SDP （AF-SDP） and aggregation-disaggregation SDP （AD-SDP） are constructed respectively. Secondly, in ISO mod- el, decision tree is the well-known and widespread algorithm. The algorithm C 5.0 is selected to extract the if-then-else rules for reservoir operation. Thirdly, based on the PSO model, the hedging rule curves （HRCs） are pre-defined by fusing the storage and inflow as state variable. The parameters of the HRCs are determined by using the simulation-optimization model. Finally, China＇s Hun River cascade hydropower reservoirs system is taken as an example to illustrate the efficiency and reliability of the models. In addition, the values of quantitative precipitation forecasts of the global forecast system （10 days lead-time） are implemented to forecast the 10 days inflow.
