The four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation systems used in most operational and research centers use initial condition increments as control variables and adjust initial increments to find optimal a...The four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation systems used in most operational and research centers use initial condition increments as control variables and adjust initial increments to find optimal analysis solutions. This approach may sometimes create discontinuities in analysis fields and produce undesirable spin ups and spin downs. This study explores using incremental analysis updates （IAU） in 4D-Var to reduce the analysis discontinuities. IAU-based 4D-Var has almost the same mathematical formula as conventional 4D-Var if the initial condition increments are replaced with time-integrated increments as control variables. The IAU technique was implemented in the NASA/GSFC 4D-Var prototype and compared against a control run without IAU. The results showed that the initial precipitation spikes were removed and that other discontinuities were also reduced, especially for the analysis of surface temperature.展开更多
Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refr...Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refresh system to improve the prediction of Typhoon Lekima (2019). Two numerical sensitivity experiments with or without application of the IAU technique after performing vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures were conducted for comparison with the control experiment, which did not involve a typhoon initialization scheme. Analysis of the initial fields indicated that the relocation procedure shifted the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon region, and the wind speeds became closer to the observations following the wind adjustment procedure. Comparison of the results of the sensitivity and control experiments revealed that the vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures could improve the prediction of typhoon track and intensity in the first 6-h period, and that these improvements were extended throughout the first 12-h period of the prediction by the IAU technique. The new typhoon initialization scheme also improved the simulated typhoon structure in terms of not only the wind speed and warm core prediction but also the organization of the eye of Typhoon Lekima. Diagnosis of the tendencies of variables showed that use of the IAU technique in a typhoon initialization scheme is efficacious in resolving the spurious high-frequency noise problem such that the model is able to reach equilibrium as soon as possible.展开更多
In the traditional incremental analysis update(IAU)process,all analysis increments are treated as constant forcing in a model’s prognostic equations over a certain time window.This approach effectively reduces high-f...In the traditional incremental analysis update(IAU)process,all analysis increments are treated as constant forcing in a model’s prognostic equations over a certain time window.This approach effectively reduces high-frequency oscillations introduced by data assimilation.However,as different scales of increments have unique evolutionary speeds and life histories in a numerical model,the traditional IAU scheme cannot fully meet the requirements of short-term forecasting for the damping of high-frequency noise and may even cause systematic drifts.Therefore,a multi-scale IAU scheme is proposed in this paper.Analysis increments were divided into different scale parts using a spatial filtering technique.For each scale increment,the optimal relaxation time in the IAU scheme was determined by the skill of the forecasting results.Finally,different scales of analysis increments were added to the model integration during their optimal relaxation time.The multi-scale IAU scheme can effectively reduce the noise and further improve the balance between large-scale and small-scale increments in the model initialization stage.To evaluate its performance,several numerical experiments were conducted to simulate the path and intensity of Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)and showed that:(1)the multi-scale IAU scheme had an obvious effect on noise control at the initial stage of data assimilation;(2)the optimal relaxation time for large-scale and small-scale increments was estimated as 6 h and 3 h,respectively;(3)the forecast performance of the multi-scale IAU scheme in the prediction of Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)was better than that of the traditional IAU scheme.The results demonstrate the superiority of the multi-scale IAU scheme.展开更多
The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initializatio...The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initialization scheme,developed based on the incremental analysis updates(IAU)technique,effectively reduces initial bias.However,the original IAU-based TC initialization scheme only adjusts the wind field at the analysis moment,with other variables adjusted implicitly under the model's constraints according to a gradually inserted wind increment(named“univariate adjustment scheme”hereafter).The univariate adjustment scheme requires approximately 3 h to reach a dynamic equilibrium state,which constrains the assimilation of hourly TC observations and causes excessive dissipation of meaningful short-wave information in adjustment increments.To address this limitation,this study develops a multivariate adjustment IAU-based TC initialization scheme that incorporates gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance as its largescale constraints.Numerical experiments with TC Hato(2017)demonstrate that the multivariate adjustment scheme reduces the IAU relaxation time to 1 h while marginally improving forecast skill.These findings are consistently replicated across 12 additional TC cases.The development of the IAU-based multivariate adjustment initialization scheme establishes a foundation for 4-D initialization using hourly TC observations.展开更多
In traditional simulations of heavy rainfall events, the regional model is often initialized by using a global reanalysis dataset and a cold start method. An alternative to using global analysis data is to gradually i...In traditional simulations of heavy rainfall events, the regional model is often initialized by using a global reanalysis dataset and a cold start method. An alternative to using global analysis data is to gradually introduce the analysis field via an incremental analysis update(IAU) method under the replay configuration. We found substantial differences in the forecast of a heavy rainfall event in southern China between a precipitation forecast using the traditional method and a forecast using the IAU method in the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(TRAMS),based on the ECMWF global analysis. The IAU method is efficient in removing spurious high-frequency gravity wave noise, especially when the relaxation time is more than 90 min. The regional model needs to be pre-integrated for about 12 h to warm up the convective system in the background field. The improvement by the IAU method is supported by verification of simulations over 1 month(1–30 April 2019). In general, the IAU technique improves the initialization and spin-up process in the simulation of the heavy rainfall event.展开更多
The assimilation of dual-polarization(dual-pol)radar data plays a crucial role in enhancing the simulation of hydrometeors and improving the short-term precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction(NWP)model...The assimilation of dual-polarization(dual-pol)radar data plays a crucial role in enhancing the simulation of hydrometeors and improving the short-term precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.However,existing dual-pol radar data assimilation(DA)methods exhibit limitations in terms of computational efficiency and data utilization.In this study,a new dual-pol radar DA approach is developed that utilizes a UNet-based model to retrieve mixing ratio information for four hydrometeor species from dual-pol radar data.The validation results for the UNet-based model indicate that the distributions of the retrieved hydrometeor mixing ratios provided by the model align well with the labeled data,yielding a reasonable range of root mean square errors(RMSEs).On this basis,the hydrometeor analysis increments retrieved by the UNet-based model are incorporated into the model integration process through the incremental analysis update(IAU)scheme,establishing a complete dual-pol radar DA framework for the CMA-MESO model.To evaluate the efficacy of this DA scheme,comparative simulation experiments were conducted for Typhoon Lekima(2019).Verification results indicate that using the hydrometeor DA scheme generally improves the threat scores(TSs)for 3-hour accumulated precipitation during medium-and heavy-rainfall events.Additionally,the 24-hour accumulated rainfall TSs for the medium-,heavy-,and extreme-precipitation categories in the DA experiment are all superior to those in the control experiment.The DA method also yields superior predictions of the spatial distribution of extremerainfall events.These results demonstrate that the proposed dual-pol radar DA approach effectively enhances the precipitation forecasting capabilities of numerical weather models.展开更多
基金supported by NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
文摘The four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation systems used in most operational and research centers use initial condition increments as control variables and adjust initial increments to find optimal analysis solutions. This approach may sometimes create discontinuities in analysis fields and produce undesirable spin ups and spin downs. This study explores using incremental analysis updates （IAU） in 4D-Var to reduce the analysis discontinuities. IAU-based 4D-Var has almost the same mathematical formula as conventional 4D-Var if the initial condition increments are replaced with time-integrated increments as control variables. The IAU technique was implemented in the NASA/GSFC 4D-Var prototype and compared against a control run without IAU. The results showed that the initial precipitation spikes were removed and that other discontinuities were also reduced, especially for the analysis of surface temperature.
基金Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Province(LGF20D050001)East China Regional Meteorological Science and Technology Innovation Fund Cooperation Project(QYHZ201805)Meteorological Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Meteorological Service(2018ZD01,2019ZD11)。
文摘Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refresh system to improve the prediction of Typhoon Lekima (2019). Two numerical sensitivity experiments with or without application of the IAU technique after performing vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures were conducted for comparison with the control experiment, which did not involve a typhoon initialization scheme. Analysis of the initial fields indicated that the relocation procedure shifted the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon region, and the wind speeds became closer to the observations following the wind adjustment procedure. Comparison of the results of the sensitivity and control experiments revealed that the vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures could improve the prediction of typhoon track and intensity in the first 6-h period, and that these improvements were extended throughout the first 12-h period of the prediction by the IAU technique. The new typhoon initialization scheme also improved the simulated typhoon structure in terms of not only the wind speed and warm core prediction but also the organization of the eye of Typhoon Lekima. Diagnosis of the tendencies of variables showed that use of the IAU technique in a typhoon initialization scheme is efficacious in resolving the spurious high-frequency noise problem such that the model is able to reach equilibrium as soon as possible.
基金jointly sponsored by the Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission (Grant No. KCXFZ20201221173610028)the key program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42130605)
文摘In the traditional incremental analysis update(IAU)process,all analysis increments are treated as constant forcing in a model’s prognostic equations over a certain time window.This approach effectively reduces high-frequency oscillations introduced by data assimilation.However,as different scales of increments have unique evolutionary speeds and life histories in a numerical model,the traditional IAU scheme cannot fully meet the requirements of short-term forecasting for the damping of high-frequency noise and may even cause systematic drifts.Therefore,a multi-scale IAU scheme is proposed in this paper.Analysis increments were divided into different scale parts using a spatial filtering technique.For each scale increment,the optimal relaxation time in the IAU scheme was determined by the skill of the forecasting results.Finally,different scales of analysis increments were added to the model integration during their optimal relaxation time.The multi-scale IAU scheme can effectively reduce the noise and further improve the balance between large-scale and small-scale increments in the model initialization stage.To evaluate its performance,several numerical experiments were conducted to simulate the path and intensity of Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)and showed that:(1)the multi-scale IAU scheme had an obvious effect on noise control at the initial stage of data assimilation;(2)the optimal relaxation time for large-scale and small-scale increments was estimated as 6 h and 3 h,respectively;(3)the forecast performance of the multi-scale IAU scheme in the prediction of Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)was better than that of the traditional IAU scheme.The results demonstrate the superiority of the multi-scale IAU scheme.
基金supported by the National University of Defense Technology(NUDT)Research Initiation Funding for High-Level Scientific and Technological Innovative Talents(202402-YJRC-LJ-001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2142213)+1 种基金the Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation of Guangdong Province(Grants 2025A1515011835,2022A1515011870)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42305167)。
文摘The operational Tropical Regional Atmospheric Model System(TRAMS)often underestimates initial typhoon intensity when using the global analysis field as the initial condition.The TRAMS tropical cyclone(TC)initialization scheme,developed based on the incremental analysis updates(IAU)technique,effectively reduces initial bias.However,the original IAU-based TC initialization scheme only adjusts the wind field at the analysis moment,with other variables adjusted implicitly under the model's constraints according to a gradually inserted wind increment(named“univariate adjustment scheme”hereafter).The univariate adjustment scheme requires approximately 3 h to reach a dynamic equilibrium state,which constrains the assimilation of hourly TC observations and causes excessive dissipation of meaningful short-wave information in adjustment increments.To address this limitation,this study develops a multivariate adjustment IAU-based TC initialization scheme that incorporates gradient wind balance and hydrostatic balance as its largescale constraints.Numerical experiments with TC Hato(2017)demonstrate that the multivariate adjustment scheme reduces the IAU relaxation time to 1 h while marginally improving forecast skill.These findings are consistently replicated across 12 additional TC cases.The development of the IAU-based multivariate adjustment initialization scheme establishes a foundation for 4-D initialization using hourly TC observations.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U1811464)Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province,China (2018B020208004)。
文摘In traditional simulations of heavy rainfall events, the regional model is often initialized by using a global reanalysis dataset and a cold start method. An alternative to using global analysis data is to gradually introduce the analysis field via an incremental analysis update(IAU) method under the replay configuration. We found substantial differences in the forecast of a heavy rainfall event in southern China between a precipitation forecast using the traditional method and a forecast using the IAU method in the Tropical Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(TRAMS),based on the ECMWF global analysis. The IAU method is efficient in removing spurious high-frequency gravity wave noise, especially when the relaxation time is more than 90 min. The regional model needs to be pre-integrated for about 12 h to warm up the convective system in the background field. The improvement by the IAU method is supported by verification of simulations over 1 month(1–30 April 2019). In general, the IAU technique improves the initialization and spin-up process in the simulation of the heavy rainfall event.
基金Major Key Project of PCL(PCL2025A10)Open Research Project of the China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory(23SWQXM036)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375160)Project of the Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sounding of China Meteorological Administration(2022KLAS06M)Science and Technology Research Project of the Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2024M04)。
文摘The assimilation of dual-polarization(dual-pol)radar data plays a crucial role in enhancing the simulation of hydrometeors and improving the short-term precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.However,existing dual-pol radar data assimilation(DA)methods exhibit limitations in terms of computational efficiency and data utilization.In this study,a new dual-pol radar DA approach is developed that utilizes a UNet-based model to retrieve mixing ratio information for four hydrometeor species from dual-pol radar data.The validation results for the UNet-based model indicate that the distributions of the retrieved hydrometeor mixing ratios provided by the model align well with the labeled data,yielding a reasonable range of root mean square errors(RMSEs).On this basis,the hydrometeor analysis increments retrieved by the UNet-based model are incorporated into the model integration process through the incremental analysis update(IAU)scheme,establishing a complete dual-pol radar DA framework for the CMA-MESO model.To evaluate the efficacy of this DA scheme,comparative simulation experiments were conducted for Typhoon Lekima(2019).Verification results indicate that using the hydrometeor DA scheme generally improves the threat scores(TSs)for 3-hour accumulated precipitation during medium-and heavy-rainfall events.Additionally,the 24-hour accumulated rainfall TSs for the medium-,heavy-,and extreme-precipitation categories in the DA experiment are all superior to those in the control experiment.The DA method also yields superior predictions of the spatial distribution of extremerainfall events.These results demonstrate that the proposed dual-pol radar DA approach effectively enhances the precipitation forecasting capabilities of numerical weather models.
