Enhancing the accuracy of real-time ship roll prediction is crucial for maritime safety and operational efficiency.To address the challenge of accurately predicting the ship roll status with nonlinear time-varying dyn...Enhancing the accuracy of real-time ship roll prediction is crucial for maritime safety and operational efficiency.To address the challenge of accurately predicting the ship roll status with nonlinear time-varying dynamic characteristics,a real-time ship roll prediction scheme is proposed on the basis of a data preprocessing strategy and a novel stochastic trainer-based feedforward neural network.The sliding data window serves as a ship time-varying dynamic observer to enhance model prediction stability.The variational mode decomposition method extracts effective information on ship roll motion and reduces the non-stationary characteristics of the series.The energy entropy method reconstructs the mode components into high-frequency,medium-frequency,and low-frequency series to reduce model complexity.An improved black widow optimization algorithm trainer-based feedforward neural network with enhanced local optimal avoidance predicts the high-frequency component,enabling accurate tracking of abrupt signals.Additionally,the deterministic algorithm trainer-based neural network,characterized by rapid processing speed,predicts the remaining two mode components.Thus,real-time ship roll forecasting can be achieved through the reconstruction of mode component prediction results.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid prediction scheme for ship roll motion are demonstrated through the measured data of a full-scale ship trial.The proposed prediction scheme achieves real-time ship roll prediction with superior prediction accuracy.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52231014 and 52271361)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China(Grant No.2023A1515010684).
文摘Enhancing the accuracy of real-time ship roll prediction is crucial for maritime safety and operational efficiency.To address the challenge of accurately predicting the ship roll status with nonlinear time-varying dynamic characteristics,a real-time ship roll prediction scheme is proposed on the basis of a data preprocessing strategy and a novel stochastic trainer-based feedforward neural network.The sliding data window serves as a ship time-varying dynamic observer to enhance model prediction stability.The variational mode decomposition method extracts effective information on ship roll motion and reduces the non-stationary characteristics of the series.The energy entropy method reconstructs the mode components into high-frequency,medium-frequency,and low-frequency series to reduce model complexity.An improved black widow optimization algorithm trainer-based feedforward neural network with enhanced local optimal avoidance predicts the high-frequency component,enabling accurate tracking of abrupt signals.Additionally,the deterministic algorithm trainer-based neural network,characterized by rapid processing speed,predicts the remaining two mode components.Thus,real-time ship roll forecasting can be achieved through the reconstruction of mode component prediction results.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid prediction scheme for ship roll motion are demonstrated through the measured data of a full-scale ship trial.The proposed prediction scheme achieves real-time ship roll prediction with superior prediction accuracy.
