Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed...Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.展开更多
Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware los...Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.展开更多
Accurately counting dense objects in complex and diverse backgrounds is a significant challenge in computer vision,with applications ranging from crowd counting to various other object counting tasks.To address this,w...Accurately counting dense objects in complex and diverse backgrounds is a significant challenge in computer vision,with applications ranging from crowd counting to various other object counting tasks.To address this,we propose HUANNet(High-Resolution Unified Attention Network),a convolutional neural network designed to capture both local features and rich semantic information through a high-resolution representation learning framework,while optimizing computational distribution across parallel branches.HUANNet introduces three core modules:the High-Resolution Attention Module(HRAM),which enhances feature extraction by optimizing multiresolution feature fusion;the Unified Multi-Scale Attention Module(UMAM),which integrates spatial,channel,and convolutional kernel information through an attention mechanism applied across multiple levels of the network;and the Grid-Assisted Point Matching Module(GPMM),which stabilizes and improves point-to-point matching by leveraging grid-based mechanisms.Extensive experiments show that HUANNet achieves competitive results on the ShanghaiTech Part A/B crowd counting datasets and sets new state-of-the-art performance on dense object counting datasets such as CARPK and XRAY-IECCD,demonstrating the effectiveness and versatility of HUANNet.展开更多
The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and na...The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.展开更多
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning ...Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.展开更多
Background:Diabetic foot,a severe complication of diabetes,is characterized by chronic refractory wounds.Sanhuang Oil,a topical herbal formula,demonstrates significant therapeutic effects including antibacterial,anti-...Background:Diabetic foot,a severe complication of diabetes,is characterized by chronic refractory wounds.Sanhuang Oil,a topical herbal formula,demonstrates significant therapeutic effects including antibacterial,anti-inflammatory,and immunomodulatory activities.However,its active constituents and mechanisms of action against diabetic foot remain to be elucidated.Methods:In this study,the chemical constituents of Sanhuang Oil were identified using UPLC-QE-Orbitrap-MS.Subsequently,the mechanism by which Sanhuang Oil promotes diabetic foot ulcer healing was predicted by integrating network pharmacology and molecular docking.Additionally,diabetic mouse model was established in ICR mice using a combination of a high-fat diet(HFD)and streptozotocin(STZ)chemical induction.A full-thickness skin defect was created on the dorsum of the mice.Wound healing and the healing rate were observed following Sanhuang Oil intervention.The mechanism underlying Sanhuang Oil’s promotion of diabetic ulcer healing was further investigated using transcriptomics and histopathological examination(H&E staining).Results:A total of 97 active ingredients were identified from Sanhuang Oil.Network pharmacology analysis predicted 543 common targets,and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG)pathway enrichment analysis identified 203 relevant pathways.Molecular docking further confirmed high binding affinity(binding energy≤−5.0 kcal/mol)between specific active components in Sanhuang Oil(e.g.,coptisine,phellodendrine,baicalein)and key targets associated with diabetic foot ulcers(e.g.,EGFR,AKT1,STAT3).In vivo experimental results demonstrated that the wound healing rate was significantly higher in Sanhuang Oil-treated groups compared to the model group(P<0.001).HE staining revealed that the high-dose Sanhuang Oil group exhibited more pronounced epithelial tissue coverage over the wound,reduced inflammatory cell infiltration,and increased collagen deposition and fibroblast proliferation.transcriptomic analysis identified Pdk4,Ttn,Csrp3,Actn2,Myoz2,Tnnc2,Myod1,Myog,Myot,and Myf6 as key regulatory proteins involved in promoting wound healing.Conclusion:Sanhuang Oil promotes wound healing in diabetic ulcer mice,potentially by mitigating inflammation and regulating key targets such as Pdk4 to enhance fibroblast function.These findings provide novel insights into the multi-target,multi-pathway mechanism of Sanhuang Oil for treating diabetic foot ulcers.展开更多
The Ordos Basin is a large superimposed hydrocarbon-bearing basin in China,and further research on the sedimentary characteristics and sedimentary evolution of the sequence framework of target layers is of great theor...The Ordos Basin is a large superimposed hydrocarbon-bearing basin in China,and further research on the sedimentary characteristics and sedimentary evolution of the sequence framework of target layers is of great theoretical and practical significance for guiding oil and gas exploration.The sedimentary facies and sedimentary evolution of the high-resolution sequence framework of the Carboniferous Taiyuan Formation in the Hangjinqi area have been systematically analyzed for the first time by drilling,logging and seismic data.The results show that four types of sequence interfaces can be identified in the Taiyuan Formation:regional unconformity surfaces,scour surfaces,lithologic-lithofacies transformation surfaces and flooding surfaces.According to the sedimentary response caused by the upward and downward movements of the base level at different levels,the Taiyuan Formation can be divided into 2 long-term cycles(LSC_(1)-LSC_(2)),4 mid-term cycles(MSC_(1)-MSC4)and 7 short-term cycles(SSC_(1)-SSC7).The long-and mid-term cycles correspond to members T_(1)and T_(2)and layers T_(1)-1,T_(1-2),T_(2-1),and T_(2)-2,respectively.Long-term cycles are dominated by C_(1);mid-term cycles are dominated by C_(1)and C_(2),followed by A2;and short-term cycles are dominated by C_(1),C_(2),A1 and A2.Under the high-resolution sequence stratigraphic framework,the Hangjinqi area underwent a transformation of fan delta and tidal flat depositional systems during the Taiyuan Formation sedimentary period.In the MSC_(1)-MSC_(2)stage,owing to a large-scale paleocontinent,the fan delta sedimentary body,which was limited in scale and scope,developed only in the southeastern corner and gradually transitioned basinward to tidal flat facies.In the MSC3-MSC4 stage,as the paleocontinent continuously decreased and the sedimentary range expanded,fan-delta plain sedimentation began in the study area.Several braided distributary channels with poor connectivity developed on the fan-delta plain,and between them were floodplains and peat swamps.展开更多
Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep...Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.展开更多
Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The prese...Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.展开更多
Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-iti...Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.展开更多
A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and D...A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.展开更多
The Maenggol Channel and Uldolmok Strait, located on the south-west coast of Korea, have notably strong and complex currents due to tidal effects and to local geological factors. In these areas, electric power has bee...The Maenggol Channel and Uldolmok Strait, located on the south-west coast of Korea, have notably strong and complex currents due to tidal effects and to local geological factors. In these areas, electric power has been generated using strong tidal currents, the speed of which is more than 3 m/s during spring tides. The region also provides a shortcut for navigation. These tidal conditions are therefore sometimes useful, but may also cause terrible accidents or severe economic damage, in the absence of accurate information regarding ocean conditions. In April 2014, the passenger ferry MV Sewol capsized in the Maenggol Channel, with 295 passengers killed and 9 still missing. While this was unquestionably a man-made disaster, strong currents were one of the contributing causes. It was also difficult to conduct scuba diving rescue operations given strong current speeds,and accurate prediction of the time when the tide would turn was thus critically needed. In this research, we used the high-resolution coastal circulation forecasting system of KOOS（Korea Operational Oceanographic System） for analysis and simulation of strong tidal currents in such areas with many small islands, using measurements and modeling from this research area. For accurate prediction of tidal currents, small grid size-modeling was needed,and in this study, we identified a suitable grid size that offers efficiency as well as accuracy.展开更多
The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predict...The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predicting this extreme event and the feasibility of weather forecast-based hydrological forecasts. To achieve this goal, high-resolution precipitation forecasts from the Tianji weather system and the forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were evaluated with the spatial verification metrics of structure, amplitude, and location. The results showed that Tianji weather forecasts accurately predicted the amplitude of 12-h accumulated precipitation with a lead time of 12 h. The location and structure of the rainfall areas in Tianji forecasts were closer to the observations than ECMWF forecasts. Tianji hourly precipitation forecasts were also more accurate than ECMWF hourly forecasts, especially at lead times shorter than 8 h. The precipitation forecasts were used as the inputs to a hydrological model to evaluate their hydrological applications. The results showed that the runoff forecasts driven by Tianji weather forecasts could effectively predict the extreme flood event. The runoff forecasts driven by Tianji forecasts were more accurate than those driven by ECMWF forecasts in terms of amplitude and location. This study demonstrates that high-resolution weather forecasts and corresponding hydrological forecasts can provide valuable information in advance for disaster warnings and leave time for people to act on the event. The results encourage further hydrological applications of high-resolution weather forecasts, such as Tianji weather forecasts, in the future.展开更多
High-resolution transmission electron microscopy(HRTEM)promises rapid atomic-scale dynamic structure imaging.Yet,the precision limitations of aberration parameters and the challenge of eliminating aberrations in Cs-co...High-resolution transmission electron microscopy(HRTEM)promises rapid atomic-scale dynamic structure imaging.Yet,the precision limitations of aberration parameters and the challenge of eliminating aberrations in Cs-corrected transmission electron microscopy constrain resolution.A machine learning algorithm is developed to determine the aberration parameters with higher precision from small,lattice-periodic crystal images.The proposed algorithm is then validated with simulated HRTEM images of graphene and applied to the experimental images of a molybdenum disulfide(MoS_(2))monolayer with 25 variables(14 aberrations)resolved in wide ranges.Using these measured parameters,the phases of the exit-wave functions are reconstructed for each image in a focal series of MoS_(2)monolayers.The images were acquired due to the unexpected movement of the specimen holder.Four-dimensional data extraction reveals time-varying atomic structures and ripple.In particular,the atomic evolution of the sulfur-vacancy point and line defects,as well as the edge structure near the amorphous,is visualized as the resolution has been improved from about 1.75?to 0.9 A.This method can help salvage important transmission electron microscope images and is beneficial for the images obtained from electron microscopes with average stability.展开更多
Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predict...Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predictability,deep learning has yet to be sufficiently explored for complex deformation patterns associated with landslides and is inherently opaque.Herein,we developed a holistic landslide deformation forecasting method that considers spatiotemporal correlations of landslide deformation by integrating domain knowledge into interpretable deep learning.By spatially capturing the interconnections between multiple deformations from different observation points,our method contributes to the understanding and forecasting of landslide systematic behavior.By integrating specific domain knowledge relevant to each observation point and merging internal properties with external variables,the local heterogeneity is considered in our method,identifying deformation temporal patterns in different landslide zones.Case studies involving reservoir-induced landslides and creeping landslides demonstrated that our approach(1)enhances the accuracy of landslide deformation forecasting,(2)identifies significant contributing factors and their influence on spatiotemporal deformation characteristics,and(3)demonstrates how identifying these factors and patterns facilitates landslide forecasting.Our research offers a promising and pragmatic pathway toward a deeper understanding and forecasting of complex landslide behaviors.展开更多
Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficie...Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficiency and how they process solar radiation.This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning models in predicting PV power generation for three panel technologies:Hybrid-Si,Mono-Si,and Poly-Si,across three forecasting horizons:1-step,12-step,and 24-step.Among the tested models,the Convolutional Neural Network—Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-LSTM)architecture exhibited superior performance,particularly for the 24-step horizon,achieving R^(2)=0.9793 and MAE 0.0162 for the Poly-Si array,followed by Mono-Si(R^(2)=0.9768)and Hybrid-Si arrays(R^(2)=0.9769).These findings demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM model can provide accurate and reliable PV power predictions for all studied technologies.By identifying the most suitable predictive model for each panel technology,this study contributes to optimizing PV power forecasting and improving energy management strategies.展开更多
It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using...It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using an identical reference.In this study,three physically reasonable DLMs are implemented for the forecasting of the sea surface temperature(SST),sea level anomaly(SLA),and sea surface velocity in the South China Sea.The DLMs are validated against both the testing dataset and the“OceanPredict”Class 4 dataset.Results show that the DLMs'RMSEs against the latter increase by 44%,245%,302%,and 109%for SST,SLA,current speed,and direction,respectively,compared to those against the former.Therefore,different references have significant influences on the validation,and it is necessary to use an identical and independent reference to intercompare the DLMs and OFSs.Against the Class 4 dataset,the DLMs present significantly better performance for SLA than the OFSs,and slightly better performances for other variables.The error patterns of the DLMs and OFSs show a high degree of similarity,which is reasonable from the viewpoint of predictability,facilitating further applications of the DLMs.For extreme events,the DLMs and OFSs both present large but similar forecast errors for SLA and current speed,while the DLMs are likely to give larger errors for SST and current direction.This study provides an evaluation of the forecast skills of commonly used DLMs and provides an example to objectively intercompare different DLMs.展开更多
Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devi...Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting,where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradi...Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting,where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power production.Ensemble simulations from such weather models aim to quantify uncertainty in the future development of the weather,and can be used to propagate this uncertainty through the model chain to generate probabilistic solar energy predictions.However,ensemble prediction systems are known to exhibit systematic errors,and thus require post-processing to obtain accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts.The overarching aim of our study is to systematically evaluate different strategies to apply post-processing in model chain approaches with a specific focus on solar energy:not applying any post-processing at all;post-processing only the irradiance predictions before the conversion;post-processing only the solar power predictions obtained from the model chain;or applying post-processing in both steps.In a case study based on a benchmark dataset for the Jacumba solar plant in the U.S.,we develop statistical and machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble predictions of global horizontal irradiance(GHI)and solar power generation.Further,we propose a neural-network-based model for direct solar power forecasting that bypasses the model chain.Our results indicate that postprocessing substantially improves the solar power generation forecasts,in particular when post-processing is applied to the power predictions.The machine learning methods for post-processing slightly outperform the statistical methods,and the direct forecasting approach performs comparably to the post-processing strategies.展开更多
As financial markets grow increasingly complex and volatile,timeseriesbased stock price forecasting has become a critical research focus in the field of finance.Traditional forecasting methods face significant limitat...As financial markets grow increasingly complex and volatile,timeseriesbased stock price forecasting has become a critical research focus in the field of finance.Traditional forecasting methods face significant limitations in handling nonlinear and high-dimensional data,while neural networks(NNs)have demonstrated great potential due to their powerful feature extraction and pattern recognition capabilities.Although several existing surveys discuss the applications of NNs in stock forecasting,they often lack a detailed examination of models that use time-series data as input and fail to cover the latest research developments.In response,this paper reviews relevant literature from 2015 to 2025 and classifies timeseriesbased stock forecasting methods into four categories:NNs,recurrent NNs(RNNs),convolutional NNs(CNNs),Transformers and other models.We analyze their performance under different market conditions,highlight strengths and limitations,and identify recent trends in model design.Our findings show that hybrid architectures and attention-based models consistently achieve superior forecasting stability and adaptability across volatile market scenarios.This survey offers a systematic reference for researchers and practitioners and outlines promising future research directions.展开更多
基金Science and Technology Development Program of the“Taihu Light”(K20231023)CMA Numerical Weather Prediction R&D Project(TCYF2024QH007)+1 种基金“Qing Lan”Project of Jiangsu Province for C.H.LUWuxi University Research Start-up Fund for Introduced Talents(2023r037)。
文摘Since the initiation of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction project by the World Meteorological Organization,the accuracy of model forecasts has improved notably.However,substantial discrepancies have been observed among forecast results produced by different ensemble members when applied to South China.To enhance the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region,it is essential to develop new methods that can effectively leverage multiple predictive models.This study introduces a weighted ensemble forecasting method based on online learning to improve forecast accuracy.We utilized ensemble forecasts from three models:the Integrated Forecasting System model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction,and the Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3 model from the China Meteorological Administration.The ensemble weights are trained using an online learning approach.The results indicate that the forecasts obtained through online learning outperform those of the original dynamical models.Compared to the simple ensemble results of the three models,the weighted ensemble model showed a stronger capability to capture temperature and precipitation patterns in South China.Therefore,this method has the potential to improve the accuracy of sub-seasonal forecasts in this region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘Wind speed is a crucial parameter affecting wind energy utilization.However,its volatility leads to time-varying power output.Herein,a novel Seq2Seq model integrating deep learning,data denoising,and a shape-aware loss function is proposed for accurate multistep wind speed forecasting.In this model,the wind speed data is first denoised using the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform.Next,an encoder-decoder network based on a temporal convolutional network,bidirectional gated recurrent unit,and multihead self-attention is employed for forecasting.Additionally,to enhance the ability of the model to identify temporal dynamics,a shape-aware loss function,ITILDE-Q,is employed in the model.To verify the effectiveness of the proposed model,a comparative experiment and an ablation experiment were conducted using three datasets of measured wind speeds.Three error metrics and a similarity metric were adopted for comprehensive evaluation.The experimental results showed that the proposed model consistently outperforms benchmark models in all tested forecasting scenarios,with particularly pronounced differences in performance over longer forecast horizons.Furthermore,the synergistic interaction of the three key components contributes to the extraordinary performance of the proposed model.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62273213,62472262,62572287)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2024MF144)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province for Innovation and Development Joint Funds(ZR2022LZH001)Taishan Scholarship Construction Engineering.
文摘Accurately counting dense objects in complex and diverse backgrounds is a significant challenge in computer vision,with applications ranging from crowd counting to various other object counting tasks.To address this,we propose HUANNet(High-Resolution Unified Attention Network),a convolutional neural network designed to capture both local features and rich semantic information through a high-resolution representation learning framework,while optimizing computational distribution across parallel branches.HUANNet introduces three core modules:the High-Resolution Attention Module(HRAM),which enhances feature extraction by optimizing multiresolution feature fusion;the Unified Multi-Scale Attention Module(UMAM),which integrates spatial,channel,and convolutional kernel information through an attention mechanism applied across multiple levels of the network;and the Grid-Assisted Point Matching Module(GPMM),which stabilizes and improves point-to-point matching by leveraging grid-based mechanisms.Extensive experiments show that HUANNet achieves competitive results on the ShanghaiTech Part A/B crowd counting datasets and sets new state-of-the-art performance on dense object counting datasets such as CARPK and XRAY-IECCD,demonstrating the effectiveness and versatility of HUANNet.
基金supported by the Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University(ZK20202204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(12250005,12073040,12273059,11973056,12003051,11573037,12073041,11427901,11572005,11611530679 and 12473052)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the China Academy of Sciences(XDB0560000,XDA15052200,XDB09040200,XDA15010700,XDB0560301,and XDA15320102)the Chinese Meridian Project(CMP).
文摘The solar cycle(SC),a phenomenon caused by the quasi-periodic regular activities in the Sun,occurs approximately every 11 years.Intense solar activity can disrupt the Earth’s ionosphere,affecting communication and navigation systems.Consequently,accurately predicting the intensity of the SC holds great significance,but predicting the SC involves a long-term time series,and many existing time series forecasting methods have fallen short in terms of accuracy and efficiency.The Time-series Dense Encoder model is a deep learning solution tailored for long time series prediction.Based on a multi-layer perceptron structure,it outperforms the best previously existing models in accuracy,while being efficiently trainable on general datasets.We propose a method based on this model for SC forecasting.Using a trained model,we predict the test set from SC 19 to SC 25 with an average mean absolute percentage error of 32.02,root mean square error of 30.3,mean absolute error of 23.32,and R^(2)(coefficient of determination)of 0.76,outperforming other deep learning models in terms of accuracy and training efficiency on sunspot number datasets.Subsequently,we use it to predict the peaks of SC 25 and SC 26.For SC 25,the peak time has ended,but a stronger peak is predicted for SC 26,of 199.3,within a range of 170.8-221.9,projected to occur during April 2034.
文摘Accurate short-term electricity price forecasts are essential for market participants to optimize bidding strategies,hedge risk and plan generation schedules.By leveraging advanced data analytics and machine learning methods,accurate and reliable price forecasts can be achieved.This study forecasts day-ahead prices in Türkiye’s electricity market using eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost).We benchmark XGBoost against four alternatives—Support Vector Machines(SVM),Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM),Random Forest(RF),and Gradient Boosting(GBM)—using 8760 hourly observations from 2023 provided by Energy Exchange Istanbul(EXIST).All models were trained on an identical chronological 80/20 train–test split,with hyperparameters tuned via 5-fold cross-validation on the training set.XGBoost achieved the best performance(Mean Absolute Error(MAE)=144.8 TRY/MWh,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE)=201.8 TRY/MWh,coefficient of determination(R^(2))=0.923)while training in 94 s.To enhance interpretability and identify key drivers,we employed Shapley Additive Explanations(SHAP),which highlighted a strong association between higher prices and increased natural-gas-based generation.The results provide a clear performance benchmark and practical guidance for selecting forecasting approaches in day-ahead electricity markets.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Provincial Department of Education(D20232101)Shandong Second Medical University 2024 Affiliated Hospital(Teaching Hospital)Scientific Research Development Fund Project(2024FYQ026)+3 种基金the innovative Research Programme of Xiangyang No.1 People’s Hospital(XYY2023ZY01)Faculty Development Grants of Xiangyang No.1 People’s Hospital Affiliated to Hubei University of Medicine(XYY2023D05)Joint supported by Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation and Xiangyang of China(2025AFD091)Traditional Chinese Medicine Scientific Research Project of Hubei Provincial Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine(ZY2025D019).
文摘Background:Diabetic foot,a severe complication of diabetes,is characterized by chronic refractory wounds.Sanhuang Oil,a topical herbal formula,demonstrates significant therapeutic effects including antibacterial,anti-inflammatory,and immunomodulatory activities.However,its active constituents and mechanisms of action against diabetic foot remain to be elucidated.Methods:In this study,the chemical constituents of Sanhuang Oil were identified using UPLC-QE-Orbitrap-MS.Subsequently,the mechanism by which Sanhuang Oil promotes diabetic foot ulcer healing was predicted by integrating network pharmacology and molecular docking.Additionally,diabetic mouse model was established in ICR mice using a combination of a high-fat diet(HFD)and streptozotocin(STZ)chemical induction.A full-thickness skin defect was created on the dorsum of the mice.Wound healing and the healing rate were observed following Sanhuang Oil intervention.The mechanism underlying Sanhuang Oil’s promotion of diabetic ulcer healing was further investigated using transcriptomics and histopathological examination(H&E staining).Results:A total of 97 active ingredients were identified from Sanhuang Oil.Network pharmacology analysis predicted 543 common targets,and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG)pathway enrichment analysis identified 203 relevant pathways.Molecular docking further confirmed high binding affinity(binding energy≤−5.0 kcal/mol)between specific active components in Sanhuang Oil(e.g.,coptisine,phellodendrine,baicalein)and key targets associated with diabetic foot ulcers(e.g.,EGFR,AKT1,STAT3).In vivo experimental results demonstrated that the wound healing rate was significantly higher in Sanhuang Oil-treated groups compared to the model group(P<0.001).HE staining revealed that the high-dose Sanhuang Oil group exhibited more pronounced epithelial tissue coverage over the wound,reduced inflammatory cell infiltration,and increased collagen deposition and fibroblast proliferation.transcriptomic analysis identified Pdk4,Ttn,Csrp3,Actn2,Myoz2,Tnnc2,Myod1,Myog,Myot,and Myf6 as key regulatory proteins involved in promoting wound healing.Conclusion:Sanhuang Oil promotes wound healing in diabetic ulcer mice,potentially by mitigating inflammation and regulating key targets such as Pdk4 to enhance fibroblast function.These findings provide novel insights into the multi-target,multi-pathway mechanism of Sanhuang Oil for treating diabetic foot ulcers.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Liaoning Universities(Grant No.LJ202410166012).
文摘The Ordos Basin is a large superimposed hydrocarbon-bearing basin in China,and further research on the sedimentary characteristics and sedimentary evolution of the sequence framework of target layers is of great theoretical and practical significance for guiding oil and gas exploration.The sedimentary facies and sedimentary evolution of the high-resolution sequence framework of the Carboniferous Taiyuan Formation in the Hangjinqi area have been systematically analyzed for the first time by drilling,logging and seismic data.The results show that four types of sequence interfaces can be identified in the Taiyuan Formation:regional unconformity surfaces,scour surfaces,lithologic-lithofacies transformation surfaces and flooding surfaces.According to the sedimentary response caused by the upward and downward movements of the base level at different levels,the Taiyuan Formation can be divided into 2 long-term cycles(LSC_(1)-LSC_(2)),4 mid-term cycles(MSC_(1)-MSC4)and 7 short-term cycles(SSC_(1)-SSC7).The long-and mid-term cycles correspond to members T_(1)and T_(2)and layers T_(1)-1,T_(1-2),T_(2-1),and T_(2)-2,respectively.Long-term cycles are dominated by C_(1);mid-term cycles are dominated by C_(1)and C_(2),followed by A2;and short-term cycles are dominated by C_(1),C_(2),A1 and A2.Under the high-resolution sequence stratigraphic framework,the Hangjinqi area underwent a transformation of fan delta and tidal flat depositional systems during the Taiyuan Formation sedimentary period.In the MSC_(1)-MSC_(2)stage,owing to a large-scale paleocontinent,the fan delta sedimentary body,which was limited in scale and scope,developed only in the southeastern corner and gradually transitioned basinward to tidal flat facies.In the MSC3-MSC4 stage,as the paleocontinent continuously decreased and the sedimentary range expanded,fan-delta plain sedimentation began in the study area.Several braided distributary channels with poor connectivity developed on the fan-delta plain,and between them were floodplains and peat swamps.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 62376217]the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST[grant number 2023QNRC001]the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement[grant number 24NLTSZ003]。
文摘Deep learning-based methods have become alternatives to traditional numerical weather prediction systems,offering faster computation and the ability to utilize large historical datasets.However,the application of deep learning to medium-range regional weather forecasting with limited data remains a significant challenge.In this work,three key solutions are proposed:(1)motivated by the need to improve model performance in data-scarce regional forecasting scenarios,the authors innovatively apply semantic segmentation models,to better capture spatiotemporal features and improve prediction accuracy;(2)recognizing the challenge of overfitting and the inability of traditional noise-based data augmentation methods to effectively enhance model robustness,a novel learnable Gaussian noise mechanism is introduced that allows the model to adaptively optimize perturbations for different locations,ensuring more effective learning;and(3)to address the issue of error accumulation in autoregressive prediction,as well as the challenge of learning difficulty and the lack of intermediate data utilization in one-shot prediction,the authors propose a cascade prediction approach that effectively resolves these problems while significantly improving model forecasting performance.The method achieves a competitive result in The East China Regional AI Medium Range Weather Forecasting Competition.Ablation experiments further validate the effectiveness of each component,highlighting their contributions to enhancing prediction performance.
基金funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research and Libraries at Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University,through the“Nafea”Program,Grant No.(NP-45-082).
文摘Sustainable energy systems will entail a change in the carbon intensity projections,which should be carried out in a proper manner to facilitate the smooth running of the grid and reduce greenhouse emissions.The present article outlines the TransCarbonNet,a novel hybrid deep learning framework with self-attention characteristics added to the bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(Bi-LSTM)network to forecast the carbon intensity of the grid several days.The proposed temporal fusion model not only learns the local temporal interactions but also the long-term patterns of the carbon emission data;hence,it is able to give suitable forecasts over a period of seven days.TransCarbonNet takes advantage of a multi-head self-attention element to identify significant temporal connections,which means the Bi-LSTM element calculates sequential dependencies in both directions.Massive tests on two actual data sets indicate much improved results in comparison with the existing results,with mean relative errors of 15.3 percent and 12.7 percent,respectively.The framework has given explicable weights of attention that reveal critical periods that influence carbon intensity alterations,and informed decisions on the management of carbon sustainability.The effectiveness of the proposed solution has been validated in numerous cases of operations,and TransCarbonNet is established to be an effective tool when it comes to carbon-friendly optimization of the grid.
文摘Predicting the behavior of renewable energy systems requires models capable of generating accurate forecasts from limited historical data,a challenge that becomes especially pronounced when commissioning new facil-ities where operational records are scarce.This review aims to synthesize recent progress in data-efficient deep learning approaches for addressing such“cold-start”forecasting problems.It primarily covers three interrelated domains—solar photovoltaic(PV),wind power,and electrical load forecasting—where data scarcity and operational variability are most critical,while also including representative studies on hydropower and carbon emission prediction to provide a broader systems perspective.To this end,we examined trends from over 150 predominantly peer-reviewed studies published between 2019 and mid-2025,highlighting advances in zero-shot and few-shot meta-learning frameworks that enable rapid model adaptation with minimal labeled data.Moreover,transfer learning approaches combined with spatiotemporal graph neural networks have been employed to transfer knowledge from existing energy assets to new,data-sparse environments,effectively capturing hidden dependencies among geographic features,meteorological dynamics,and grid structures.Synthetic data generation has further proven valuable for expanding training samples and mitigating overfitting in cold-start scenarios.In addition,large language models and explainable artificial intelligence(XAI)—notably conversational XAI systems—have been used to interpret and communicate complex model behaviors in accessible terms,fostering operator trust from the earliest deployment stages.By consolidating methodological advances,unresolved challenges,and open-source resources,this review provides a coherent overview of deep learning strategies that can shorten the data-sparse ramp-up period of new energy infrastructures and accelerate the transition toward resilient,low-carbon electricity grids.
基金funded by "The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee" of "The National Key Research and Development Program of China"[grant number2016YFC1401409]
文摘A project entitled‘Development of a Global High-resolution Marine Dynamic Environmental Forecasting System’has been funded by‘The Program on Marine Environmental Safety Guarantee’of The National Key Research and Development Program of China.This project will accomplish its objectives through basic theoretical research,model development and expansion,and system establishment and application,with a focus on four key issues separated into nine tasks.A series of research achievements have already been obtained,including datasets,observations,theories,and model results.
基金The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries of Korea-"Development of Korea Operational Oceanographic System(KOOS)"and"Cooperative Project on Korea-China Bilateral Committee on Ocean Science"the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology Project of the under contract No.PE99325the CKJORC-"Cooperation on the Development of Basic Technologies for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea Operational Oceanographic System(YOOS)"
文摘The Maenggol Channel and Uldolmok Strait, located on the south-west coast of Korea, have notably strong and complex currents due to tidal effects and to local geological factors. In these areas, electric power has been generated using strong tidal currents, the speed of which is more than 3 m/s during spring tides. The region also provides a shortcut for navigation. These tidal conditions are therefore sometimes useful, but may also cause terrible accidents or severe economic damage, in the absence of accurate information regarding ocean conditions. In April 2014, the passenger ferry MV Sewol capsized in the Maenggol Channel, with 295 passengers killed and 9 still missing. While this was unquestionably a man-made disaster, strong currents were one of the contributing causes. It was also difficult to conduct scuba diving rescue operations given strong current speeds,and accurate prediction of the time when the tide would turn was thus critically needed. In this research, we used the high-resolution coastal circulation forecasting system of KOOS（Korea Operational Oceanographic System） for analysis and simulation of strong tidal currents in such areas with many small islands, using measurements and modeling from this research area. For accurate prediction of tidal currents, small grid size-modeling was needed,and in this study, we identified a suitable grid size that offers efficiency as well as accuracy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.42105142 and 51979004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.B210202014)the China PostDoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M701045).
文摘The extreme rainfall event of July 17 to 22, 2021 in Henan Province, China, led to severe urban waterlogging and flood disasters. This study investigated the performance of high-resolution weather forecasts in predicting this extreme event and the feasibility of weather forecast-based hydrological forecasts. To achieve this goal, high-resolution precipitation forecasts from the Tianji weather system and the forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were evaluated with the spatial verification metrics of structure, amplitude, and location. The results showed that Tianji weather forecasts accurately predicted the amplitude of 12-h accumulated precipitation with a lead time of 12 h. The location and structure of the rainfall areas in Tianji forecasts were closer to the observations than ECMWF forecasts. Tianji hourly precipitation forecasts were also more accurate than ECMWF hourly forecasts, especially at lead times shorter than 8 h. The precipitation forecasts were used as the inputs to a hydrological model to evaluate their hydrological applications. The results showed that the runoff forecasts driven by Tianji weather forecasts could effectively predict the extreme flood event. The runoff forecasts driven by Tianji forecasts were more accurate than those driven by ECMWF forecasts in terms of amplitude and location. This study demonstrates that high-resolution weather forecasts and corresponding hydrological forecasts can provide valuable information in advance for disaster warnings and leave time for people to act on the event. The results encourage further hydrological applications of high-resolution weather forecasts, such as Tianji weather forecasts, in the future.
基金financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61971201)。
文摘High-resolution transmission electron microscopy(HRTEM)promises rapid atomic-scale dynamic structure imaging.Yet,the precision limitations of aberration parameters and the challenge of eliminating aberrations in Cs-corrected transmission electron microscopy constrain resolution.A machine learning algorithm is developed to determine the aberration parameters with higher precision from small,lattice-periodic crystal images.The proposed algorithm is then validated with simulated HRTEM images of graphene and applied to the experimental images of a molybdenum disulfide(MoS_(2))monolayer with 25 variables(14 aberrations)resolved in wide ranges.Using these measured parameters,the phases of the exit-wave functions are reconstructed for each image in a focal series of MoS_(2)monolayers.The images were acquired due to the unexpected movement of the specimen holder.Four-dimensional data extraction reveals time-varying atomic structures and ripple.In particular,the atomic evolution of the sulfur-vacancy point and line defects,as well as the edge structure near the amorphous,is visualized as the resolution has been improved from about 1.75?to 0.9 A.This method can help salvage important transmission electron microscope images and is beneficial for the images obtained from electron microscopes with average stability.
基金supported by the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(Grant No.GZB20230685)the National Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42277161).
文摘Forecasting landslide deformation is challenging due to influence of various internal and external factors on the occurrence of systemic and localized heterogeneities.Despite the potential to improve landslide predictability,deep learning has yet to be sufficiently explored for complex deformation patterns associated with landslides and is inherently opaque.Herein,we developed a holistic landslide deformation forecasting method that considers spatiotemporal correlations of landslide deformation by integrating domain knowledge into interpretable deep learning.By spatially capturing the interconnections between multiple deformations from different observation points,our method contributes to the understanding and forecasting of landslide systematic behavior.By integrating specific domain knowledge relevant to each observation point and merging internal properties with external variables,the local heterogeneity is considered in our method,identifying deformation temporal patterns in different landslide zones.Case studies involving reservoir-induced landslides and creeping landslides demonstrated that our approach(1)enhances the accuracy of landslide deformation forecasting,(2)identifies significant contributing factors and their influence on spatiotemporal deformation characteristics,and(3)demonstrates how identifying these factors and patterns facilitates landslide forecasting.Our research offers a promising and pragmatic pathway toward a deeper understanding and forecasting of complex landslide behaviors.
文摘Photovoltaic(PV)power forecasting is essential for balancing energy supply and demand in renewable energy systems.However,the performance of PV panels varies across different technologies due to differences in efficiency and how they process solar radiation.This study evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning models in predicting PV power generation for three panel technologies:Hybrid-Si,Mono-Si,and Poly-Si,across three forecasting horizons:1-step,12-step,and 24-step.Among the tested models,the Convolutional Neural Network—Long Short-Term Memory(CNN-LSTM)architecture exhibited superior performance,particularly for the 24-step horizon,achieving R^(2)=0.9793 and MAE 0.0162 for the Poly-Si array,followed by Mono-Si(R^(2)=0.9768)and Hybrid-Si arrays(R^(2)=0.9769).These findings demonstrate that the CNN-LSTM model can provide accurate and reliable PV power predictions for all studied technologies.By identifying the most suitable predictive model for each panel technology,this study contributes to optimizing PV power forecasting and improving energy management strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42375062 and 42275158)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab)the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province(Grant No.22JR5RF1080)。
文摘It is fundamental and useful to investigate how deep learning forecasting models(DLMs)perform compared to operational oceanography forecast systems(OFSs).However,few studies have intercompared their performances using an identical reference.In this study,three physically reasonable DLMs are implemented for the forecasting of the sea surface temperature(SST),sea level anomaly(SLA),and sea surface velocity in the South China Sea.The DLMs are validated against both the testing dataset and the“OceanPredict”Class 4 dataset.Results show that the DLMs'RMSEs against the latter increase by 44%,245%,302%,and 109%for SST,SLA,current speed,and direction,respectively,compared to those against the former.Therefore,different references have significant influences on the validation,and it is necessary to use an identical and independent reference to intercompare the DLMs and OFSs.Against the Class 4 dataset,the DLMs present significantly better performance for SLA than the OFSs,and slightly better performances for other variables.The error patterns of the DLMs and OFSs show a high degree of similarity,which is reasonable from the viewpoint of predictability,facilitating further applications of the DLMs.For extreme events,the DLMs and OFSs both present large but similar forecast errors for SLA and current speed,while the DLMs are likely to give larger errors for SST and current direction.This study provides an evaluation of the forecast skills of commonly used DLMs and provides an example to objectively intercompare different DLMs.
文摘Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.
基金the Young Investigator Group“Artificial Intelligence for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting”funded by the Vector Stiftungfunding from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research(BMBF)and the Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Science as part of the Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments。
文摘Weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models play a central role in solar energy forecasting,where a cascade of physics-based models is used in a model chain approach to convert forecasts of solar irradiance to solar power production.Ensemble simulations from such weather models aim to quantify uncertainty in the future development of the weather,and can be used to propagate this uncertainty through the model chain to generate probabilistic solar energy predictions.However,ensemble prediction systems are known to exhibit systematic errors,and thus require post-processing to obtain accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts.The overarching aim of our study is to systematically evaluate different strategies to apply post-processing in model chain approaches with a specific focus on solar energy:not applying any post-processing at all;post-processing only the irradiance predictions before the conversion;post-processing only the solar power predictions obtained from the model chain;or applying post-processing in both steps.In a case study based on a benchmark dataset for the Jacumba solar plant in the U.S.,we develop statistical and machine learning methods for postprocessing ensemble predictions of global horizontal irradiance(GHI)and solar power generation.Further,we propose a neural-network-based model for direct solar power forecasting that bypasses the model chain.Our results indicate that postprocessing substantially improves the solar power generation forecasts,in particular when post-processing is applied to the power predictions.The machine learning methods for post-processing slightly outperform the statistical methods,and the direct forecasting approach performs comparably to the post-processing strategies.
文摘As financial markets grow increasingly complex and volatile,timeseriesbased stock price forecasting has become a critical research focus in the field of finance.Traditional forecasting methods face significant limitations in handling nonlinear and high-dimensional data,while neural networks(NNs)have demonstrated great potential due to their powerful feature extraction and pattern recognition capabilities.Although several existing surveys discuss the applications of NNs in stock forecasting,they often lack a detailed examination of models that use time-series data as input and fail to cover the latest research developments.In response,this paper reviews relevant literature from 2015 to 2025 and classifies timeseriesbased stock forecasting methods into four categories:NNs,recurrent NNs(RNNs),convolutional NNs(CNNs),Transformers and other models.We analyze their performance under different market conditions,highlight strengths and limitations,and identify recent trends in model design.Our findings show that hybrid architectures and attention-based models consistently achieve superior forecasting stability and adaptability across volatile market scenarios.This survey offers a systematic reference for researchers and practitioners and outlines promising future research directions.
