The seriousness of losses caused by disaster dependent on the hazard degree of environment,vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,and emergency response capacity of the region is studied in this article.The study on ...The seriousness of losses caused by disaster dependent on the hazard degree of environment,vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,and emergency response capacity of the region is studied in this article.The study on hazard-affected bodies is of importance to disaster risk management,regional hazard prevention,reduction,and investment in disaster insurance.With summarizing of various assessment methods of vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,this paper presents a refined Spatial Quantification Model of regional vulnerability which combines refined spatial geographic data and land-use type data.A quantitative study on regional vulnerability was carried out by defining fine spatial grid as the basic evaluation unit based on GIS.展开更多
Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats...Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.展开更多
基金funded by the Science and Technology project of the Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province in 2010(No.2010ZD05)Science and Technology projects in Zhejiang Province(No.2007C33062).
文摘The seriousness of losses caused by disaster dependent on the hazard degree of environment,vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,and emergency response capacity of the region is studied in this article.The study on hazard-affected bodies is of importance to disaster risk management,regional hazard prevention,reduction,and investment in disaster insurance.With summarizing of various assessment methods of vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies,this paper presents a refined Spatial Quantification Model of regional vulnerability which combines refined spatial geographic data and land-use type data.A quantitative study on regional vulnerability was carried out by defining fine spatial grid as the basic evaluation unit based on GIS.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41201551)the Project of Science and Technology Innovation in Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science (CAAS-ASTIP-201X-AII-01)the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund in Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS (2015-J-16)
文摘Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.
