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Amplified Risks of the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River to Glacier Hazard Chains due to Multi-Hazard Transformation 被引量:1
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作者 Ruochen Jiang Limin Zhang +4 位作者 Ming Peng Wenjun Lu Dalei Peng Shihao Xiao Xin He 《Engineering》 2025年第10期187-202,共16页
A glacier hazard chain can form a long-runout mass flow and generate a large flood,affecting downstream areas hundreds of kilometers away from the initiating hazard site.This study focuses on the Yarlung Zangbo Daxiag... A glacier hazard chain can form a long-runout mass flow and generate a large flood,affecting downstream areas hundreds of kilometers away from the initiating hazard site.This study focuses on the Yarlung Zangbo Daxiagu.The objective is to address two key unresolved issues:the evolution of detached glacier materials into debris flows or debris floods and the amplification of the impact range and threats.A comprehensive framework is developed that considers the impacts of near-field and far-field hazards.Numerical modeling,remote sensing,and field investigations were integrated to understand the interactions,transformations,and amplifications of hazards in the glacier hazard chain.The results indicate that extensive,nearly saturated sediments on the glacier valley floor,when entrained,amplify the magnitude of the mass flow.The topography plays a crucial role.When the valley outlet is perpendicular to the river course,topographic obstacles cause immediate halting,resulting in the formation of high barrier dams.Conversely,when the glacier valley aligns nearly parallel to the river course,the mass flow can travel a much longer distance upon entering the river,causing an enlarged affected area.The barrier dams can breach rapidly,causing breaching floods that amplify the downstream impact from several kilometers to hundreds of kilometers.Our analysis reveals that the overall impacts remain spatially limited.Specifically,downstream areas along the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River are unlikely to face greater threats from the upstream floods than local monsoon floods.Our findings provide the foundation for the management of glacier hazard chains. 展开更多
关键词 Glacier hazard chain Multi-hazard transformation Risk amplification Mass flow River damming Flood risk Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra River
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A numerical model for cascading glacier mass flow analysis(GMFA):Erosion-deposition dynamics,phase changes,and multi-hazard chain transformations
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作者 Ruochen Jiang Limin Zhang +4 位作者 Wenjun Lu Dalei Peng Xin He Shihao Xiao Mingdong Wei 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 2026年第1期299-316,共18页
Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard... Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard types,ice-water phase change,and enhanced mobility of the mass flow.Scientifically simulating these physical phenomena proves challenging.This study introduces GMFA(glacier mass flow analysis),an integrated numerical model that advances the field by:(1)proposing depth-averaged fluctuation energy and internal energy equations,(2)incorporating the ice-water phase change and the entrainment-deposition process,and(3)capturing their effects on mass flow runout characteristics.The model employs the finite volume method to solve the multi-physics coupled governing equations,enabling efficient large-scale simulations.The model is verified through three numerical tests covering flow dynamics,temperature evolution,and thermo-hydro-mechanical runout processes.The model is applied to analyze a hazard chain that occurred on 10 September 2020 on the Tibetan Plateau.The multi-scenario simulation results indicate an entrained mass volume of(4.95±0.11)×10^(5)m^(3),and a ratio of entrained mass volume to source material volume of 0.44.The solid concentration decreases from 0.6-0.7 to 0.1-0.15 with increasing runout distance,indicating a transition from avalanche to debris flood.The internal energy rises by(3-4)×10^(3)kJ/m^(3),driving rapid ice melting from 0.1 to 0.2 to near-zero concentration.The model effectively quantifies volume amplification,ice-water phase changes,and multi-hazard transformations.This model pushes the geoscience frontier,extending computational capability from single-to multi-hazard simulations and providing a powerful tool for analyzing glacier cascading hazards. 展开更多
关键词 Glacier hazard chains LANDSLIDES Debris flows Phase change Erosion and deposition hazard transformation
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Three-dimensional fault model and features of chained hazards of the Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquake,Sichuan Province,China
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作者 Xiwei Xu Qixin Wang +6 位作者 Junjie Ren Kang Li Qi Yao Chong Xu Yongsheng Li Yanfen An Jia Cheng 《Earthquake Research Advances》 CSCD 2024年第4期21-30,共10页
The M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior.This area is where the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,Daliangshan and Longmenshan ... The M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake in 2022 is located on the NNW-trending Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault with left-lateral strike-slip behavior.This area is where the Xianshuihe,Anninghe,Daliangshan and Longmenshan faults intersect.China Earthquake Administration has identified that intersection area,among the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault,the Anninghe fault,the Daliangshan fault and the southern part of the Longmenshan fault,as a high-magnitude earthquake hazard area.According to existing data on the Luding earthquake,including the focal parameters,the spatial distribution of re-located aftershocks,dominated azimuth of the earthquake intensities and earthquake-induced ground fissures,we built a 3D earthquake fault model.We found that two discontinuous NNW-trending vertical strike-slip faults with left stepping were the seismogenic faults of the Luding earthquake.Its coseismic left-lateral dislocation triggered transtensional slips and aftershocks on the NW-trending secondary faults at its northernmost tensile area.Meanwhile,local crustal coseismic shortening on the side of Mt.Gongga triggered the aftershocks on the NE-and NW-trending secondary conjugated strike-slip faults,which were confirmed by GNSS observations and In SAR deformation field around the epicenter.This earthquake rupturing pattern also controlled the spatial distribution of the earthquake intensity IX area and earthquake chain hazards.The Coulomb stress calculation shows that the Luding earthquake increases the risk of high-magnitude earthquake occurrence on the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and the Anninghe fault.Finally,we suggested doing good monitoring of the Anninghe fault and the southernmost part of the Xianshuihe fault and avoiding active faults with seismogenic capacity and areas prone to earthquake-chained hazards during the site selection and planning of reconstruction. 展开更多
关键词 Luding earthquake 3D earthquake fault Coseismic surface rupture Earthquake chained hazards Static coulomb stress Xianshuihe fault
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Case History of the Disastrous Debris Flows of Tianmo Watershed in Bomi County, Tibet, China: Some Mitigation Suggestions 被引量:26
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作者 GE Yong-gang CUI Peng +2 位作者 SU Feng-huan ZHANG Jian-qiang CHEN Xing-zhang 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2014年第5期1253-1265,共13页
Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Wat... Debris flows and landslides, extensively developing and frequently occurring along Parlung Zangbo, seriously damage the Highway from Sichuan to Tiebt(G318) at Bomi County. The disastrous debris flows of the Tianmo Watershed on Sept. 4, 2007, July 25, 2010 and Sept. 4, 2010, blocked Parlung Zangbo River and produced dammed lakes, whose outburst flow made 50 m high terrace collapse at the opposite bank due to intense scouring on the foot of the terrace. As a result, the traffic was interrupted for 16 days in 2010 because that 900 m highway base was destructed and 430 m ruined. These debris flows were initiated by the glacial melting which was induced by continuous higher temperature and the following intensive rainfall, and expanded by moraines along channels and then blocked Parlung Zangbo. At the outlet of watershed,the density, velocity and peak discharge of debris flow was 2.06 t/m3, 12.7 m/s and 3334 m3/s, respectively. When the discharge at the outlet and the deposition volume into river exceeds 2125 m3/s and 126×103 m3, respectively, debris flow will completely blocked Parlung Zangbo. Moreover,if the shear stress of river flow on the foot of terrace and the inclination angel of terrace overruns 0. 377 N/m2 and 26°, respectively, the unconsolidated terrace will be eroded by outburst flow and collapse. It was strongly recommended for mitigation that identify and evade disastrous debris flows, reduce the junction angel of channels between river and watershed, build protecting wall for highway base and keep appropriate distance between highway and the edge of unconsolidated terrace. 展开更多
关键词 Debris Flow Characteristics hazard Chain Formation Condition Tianmo Watershed
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The formation of the Wulipo landslide and the resulting debris flow in Dujiangyan City, China 被引量:16
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作者 CHEN Xing-zhang CUI Yi-fei 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第6期1100-1112,共13页
The Wulipo landslide, triggered by heavy rainfall on July 10, 2013, transformed into debris flow,resulted in the destruction of 12 houses, 44 deaths, and 117 missing. Our systematic investigation has led to the follow... The Wulipo landslide, triggered by heavy rainfall on July 10, 2013, transformed into debris flow,resulted in the destruction of 12 houses, 44 deaths, and 117 missing. Our systematic investigation has led to the following results and to a new understanding about the formation and evolution process of this hazard. The fundamental factors of the formation of the landslide are a high-steep free surface at the front of the slide mass and the sandstone-mudstone mixed stratum structure of the slope. The inducing factor of the landslide is hydrostatic and hydrodynamic pressure change caused by heavy continuous rainfall. The geological mechanical model of the landslide can be summarized as "instability-translational slide-tension fracture-collapse" and the formation mechanism as "translational landslide induced by heavy rainfall". The total volume of the landslide is 124.6×104 m3, and 16.3% of the sliding mass was dropped down from the cliff and transformed into debris flow during the sliding process, which enlarged 46.7% of the original sliding deposit area. The final accumulation area is found to be 9.2×104 m2. The hazard is a typical example of a disaster chain involving landslide and its induced debris flow. The concealment and disaster chain effect is the main reason for the heavy damage. In future risk assessment, it is suggested to enhance the research onpotential landslide identification for weakly intercalated slopes. By considering the influence of the behaviors of landslide-induced debris flow, the disaster area could be determined more reasonably. 展开更多
关键词 Landslide Debris flow Disaster chain effect Heavy rainfall Geological hazard area Wenchuan earthquake
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Emergency risk management for landslide dam breaks in 2018 on the Yangtze River,China 被引量:3
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作者 Jian He Limin Zhang +1 位作者 Te Xiao Chen Chen 《Resilient Cities and Structures》 2022年第3期1-11,共11页
In October and November of 2018,the upper reach of the Yangtze River was blocked twice by landslide dams.A large landslide dam on a major river can impound a huge amount of water and trigger catastrophic flooding once... In October and November of 2018,the upper reach of the Yangtze River was blocked twice by landslide dams.A large landslide dam on a major river can impound a huge amount of water and trigger catastrophic flooding once it fails,imposing great risk to the downstream communities.Considering the chain of large dams and densely populated cities along the river,there is an urgent need to improve the system resilience of the Yangtze River to the landslide dam break hazard.This study presents a basin-scale emergency risk management framework based on an overtopping-erosion based dam failure model and a 1-D flood routing analysis model.Basin-wide inundation and detailed flood risk analyses are carried out considering engineering risk mitigation measures,which will facilitate the decision-making on future emergency risk mitigation plans.The proposed framework is applied to the landslide dam on the Yangtze River in November 2018.Results show that excavating a 15 m-depth diversion channel could effectively mitigate the flood risk of downstream areas.Further mitigation measures,including evacuation,removal of obstacles in the river,and preparation of certain intercept capacity in downstream reservoirs,are suggested based on the hazard chain risk analysis.The mitigation results in the case prove the effectiveness of the proposed framework.The incorporation of open-access global databases enables the application of the framework to any large river basin worldwide. 展开更多
关键词 hazard chain Landslide dam Emergency management Dam break flood Risk analysis
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Geological-environmental hazard chain:Phenomena,process,and principle
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作者 Shuai ZHANG Jiale SONG +3 位作者 Liangtong ZHAN Qiang XU Limin ZHANG Yunmin CHEN 《Science China Earth Sciences》 2025年第10期3085-3107,共23页
Numerous contaminated rock and soil slopes are widely distributed around the world.When these slopes become destabilized and slide,they not only cause loss of life and property damage but also severely contaminate the... Numerous contaminated rock and soil slopes are widely distributed around the world.When these slopes become destabilized and slide,they not only cause loss of life and property damage but also severely contaminate the surrounding soil and water environments.A novel hazard chain characterized by both geological hazards and environmental pollution can be defined,profoundly impacting the human-social-ecological system.Based on extensive historical events,this paper introduces the concept of the geological-environmental hazard chain,clarifies its components,and explores its evolutionary processes,zonal and stratification characteristics,and structure.It analyzes the types of hazard chains,hazard formation modes,and control factors,revealing their amplification and overlapping effects,and ultimately synthesizes the principles of coupling with concomitance.The research indicates that:(1)The geological-environmental hazard chain consists of eight major elements:Potential instability sources and potential pollution sources,primary geological hazards and proximal environmental pollution,secondary geological hazards and regional environmental pollution,as well as elements at risk and pollution receptors.This chain is the result of the coupling between geological and environmental hazard chains.(2)Horizontally,the evolution process can be summarized into four zones:slope failure-polluted source release(Ⅰ),flow cascades-migration and dispersion(Ⅱ),damming and sedimentation-retention and precipitation(Ⅲ),and flood propagation-watershed pollution(Ⅳ).Vertically,the evolution can be categorized into three layers:surface water-soil pollution,vadose zone pollution,and saturated zone pollution.Each zone and layer has distinct hazard and pollution characteristics,together forming a spatial network structure of the hazard chain.(3)The types of hazard chains can be divided into two main categories and four subcategories:Surface sedimentation-type(Ⅰ-Ⅱ-Ⅲ)and watershed pollution-type(Ⅰ-Ⅱ-Ⅳ,Ⅰ-Ⅲ-Ⅳ,Ⅰ-Ⅱ-Ⅲ-Ⅳ),each with corresponding hazard formation modes.Internal factors primarily control the type of hazard,while external factors govern the chain combination pattern.This combined action determines the specific hazard type and pattern of chain combination,both of which collectively affect the occurrence and evolution of the hazard chain.(4)The amplification and overlapping effects within the geological-environmental hazard chain are categorized into three types:Geological hazard chain effects,environmental hazard chain effects,and inter-chain effects.The hazard chain adheres to the principle of coupling with concomitance:The entire process of geological hazards and subsequent environmental pollution is dominated by amplification effects such as increased hazard and pollution intensity or expanded impact range.It is also influenced by overlapping effects,including repeated hazards and the overlap of pollution plumes.Geological and environmental hazard chains are sequentially connected over time and interlinked in space,driven by consistent forces.This principle can be expressed in a matrix format,allowing for the scientific quantification of amplification and overlapping effects through iterative calculations to address specific geological-environmental hazard chain issues.From the perspective of hazard chains,this study provides fundamental research ideas and theoretical basis for the issues of coupling and concomitance of geological hazards and secondary environmental pollution,and offers guidance for hazard prevention and pollution control measures concerning major safety and environmental risks in China. 展开更多
关键词 Contaminated rock and soil slopes Geological-environmental hazard chain Slide-flow Pollutant transport Amplification and overlapping effects
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