Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action...Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer?s Cervialto Mountains(southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for longterm predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction(EDis P) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing(ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m^3 s^(-1). These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with changepoints detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030.展开更多
In civil and mining operations that involve ground excavation and support, the loads are distributed between the ground and support depending on their relative stiffness. This paper presents the development of concept...In civil and mining operations that involve ground excavation and support, the loads are distributed between the ground and support depending on their relative stiffness. This paper presents the development of conceptual single-degree-of-freedom models, which are used to derive equations for estimating displacements and stresses for ground-support interaction problems encountered in pillars in room-andpillar mining(natural support system), and liners for circular vertical shafts(artificial support systems).For pillar assessment, mine-pillar interaction curves can be constructed using a double spring analogy.Additionally, the effectiveness of different support systems can be evaluated depending on their effect upon the mine-pillar system. For shaft design, an initial estimation of the required lining strength and thickness can be readily made based on a double ring analogue. For both problems, the results from the proposed approach compare well with those obtained by finite element numerical simulations.展开更多
文摘Groundwater extraction is used to alleviate drought in many habitats. However, widespread drought decreases spring discharge and there is a need to integrate climate change research into resource management and action. Accurate estimates of groundwater discharge may be valuable in improving decision support systems of hydrogeological resource exploitation. The present study performs a forecast for groundwater discharge in Aquifer?s Cervialto Mountains(southern Italy). A time series starting in 1883 was the basis for longterm predictions. An Ensemble Discharge Prediction(EDis P) was applied, and the progress of the discharge ensemble forecast was inferred with the aid of an Exponential Smoothing(ES) model initialized at different annual times. EDisP-ES hindcast model experiments were tested, and discharge plume-patterns forecast was assessed with horizon placed in the year 2044. A 46-year cycle pattern was identified by comparing simulations and observations, which is essential for the forecasting purpose. ED is P-ES performed an ensemble mean path for the coming decades that indicates a discharge regime within ± 1 standard deviation around the mean value of 4.1 m^3 s^(-1). These fluctuations are comparable with those observed in the period 1961-1980 and further back, with changepoints detectable around the years 2025 and 2035. Temporary drought conditions are expected after the year 2030.
文摘In civil and mining operations that involve ground excavation and support, the loads are distributed between the ground and support depending on their relative stiffness. This paper presents the development of conceptual single-degree-of-freedom models, which are used to derive equations for estimating displacements and stresses for ground-support interaction problems encountered in pillars in room-andpillar mining(natural support system), and liners for circular vertical shafts(artificial support systems).For pillar assessment, mine-pillar interaction curves can be constructed using a double spring analogy.Additionally, the effectiveness of different support systems can be evaluated depending on their effect upon the mine-pillar system. For shaft design, an initial estimation of the required lining strength and thickness can be readily made based on a double ring analogue. For both problems, the results from the proposed approach compare well with those obtained by finite element numerical simulations.
