Theauthor proposes a dual layer source grid load storage collaborative planning model based on Benders decomposition to optimize the low-carbon and economic performance of the distribution network.The model plans the ...Theauthor proposes a dual layer source grid load storage collaborative planning model based on Benders decomposition to optimize the low-carbon and economic performance of the distribution network.The model plans the configuration of photovoltaic(3.8 MW),wind power(2.5 MW),energy storage(2.2 MWh),and SVC(1.2 Mvar)through interaction between upper and lower layers,and modifies lines 2–3,8–9,etc.to improve transmission capacity and voltage stability.The author uses normal distribution and Monte Carlo method to model load uncertainty,and combines Weibull distribution to describe wind speed characteristics.Compared to the traditional three-layer model(TLM),Benders decomposition-based two-layer model(BLBD)has a 58.1%reduction in convergence time(5.36 vs.12.78 h),a 51.1%reduction in iteration times(23 vs.47 times),a 8.07%reduction in total cost(12.436 vs.13.528 million yuan),and a 9.62%reduction in carbon emissions(12,456 vs.13,782 t).After optimization,the peak valley difference decreased from4.1 to 2.9MW,the renewable energy consumption rate reached 93.4%,and the energy storage efficiency was 87.6%.Themodel has been validated in the IEEE 33 node system,demonstrating its superiority in terms of economy,low-carbon,and reliability.展开更多
Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns.The genus of Asian bamboo,Phyllostachys,possesses significant ecological and economic values,and represents the most species...Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns.The genus of Asian bamboo,Phyllostachys,possesses significant ecological and economic values,and represents the most speciesrich genus in the Bambusoideae subfamily.Based on the distribution data of 46 species and 20 environmental variables,we used the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS calculations to simulate current and future potential richness distributions under three distinct CO_(2) emission scenarios.The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good predictive ability,with a mean area under the working characteristic curve(AUC value)of 0.91 for all species.The main environmental variables that impacted the future distribution of most Phyllostachys species were elevation,variations of seasonal precipitation,and mean diurnal range.Phyllostachys species are currently concentrated in southeastern China.Under future climate projections,18 species exhibited significant habitat contraction across three or more future climate scenarios,but suitable habitats for other species will expand.This enhancement is most pronounced under the extreme climate scenario(2090s-SSP585),primarily driven by high species gains contributing to elevated turnover values across scenarios.The center of maximum richness will progressively shift southwestward over time.Predictive modeling of Phyllostachys richness distribution dynamics under climate change enhances our understanding of its biogeography and informs strategic introduction programs to bamboo management and augments China’s carbon sequestration capacity.展开更多
Giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera,an important foundation species with great ecological and economic value,is threatened by climate change.To better understand the impact of climate warming on M.pyrifera,we investigated...Giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera,an important foundation species with great ecological and economic value,is threatened by climate change.To better understand the impact of climate warming on M.pyrifera,we investigated its global distribution dynamics by an optimized species distribution model(SDM).Results showed that wave height,sea surface temperature,benthic temperature,and benthic phosphate concentration were key factors shaping the distribution of M.pyrifera.In addition to currently known distribution regions,the model revealed potential suitable habitats globally.Under future climate scenarios,the habitat suitability of M.pyrifera would decrease at low latitudes and increase at high latitudes,resulting in a poleward shift of suitable habitats.In the regions currently occupied by M.pyrifera,the high suitable habitats were predicted to shrink,which implies that the existing M.pyrifera would be adversely impacted.These results serve as references for the conservation and utilization of M.pyrifera resource.展开更多
Resilience studies for water distribution systems(WDS)coupled with other interdependent infrastructure systems attract increasing attention from stakeholders and researchers.However,most existing large-scale WDS model...Resilience studies for water distribution systems(WDS)coupled with other interdependent infrastructure systems attract increasing attention from stakeholders and researchers.However,most existing large-scale WDS models are single infrastructure-based without consideration of other infrastructure systems.This is due to a lack of needed information on systems coupling,the structure of the simulator used,and the computation load involved.To address these gaps,this paper presents a synthetic modeling framework for a real-world WDS as coordinating with other infrastructure systems via a building-mediated clustering approach through consideration of physical distance and node capacity.First,the WDS network topology and operation parameters are inferred via bulk open-source information.A building-mediated clustering approach is designed to systematically derive the interdependence between the WDS and the power system similarly created as a case study.Second,a novel linearization method is developed in formulating the WDS model that can relieve computation load while maintaining accuracy.Finally,a disruption-recovery framework is developed to demonstrate the proposed methodology in modelling WDS resilience.The framework is applied to a neighborhood in Queenstown,Singapore,an area of 20.43 km^(2) and 96,000 population.The near-real-time simulations on the coupled system involving 308 nodes and 384 links showcase the effectiveness and application of the proposed synthetic modeling and formulation.展开更多
Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba),widely distributes around Antarctica,is a key species supporting the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resou...Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba),widely distributes around Antarctica,is a key species supporting the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources(CCAMLR)has thus managed the krill fishery according to a precautionary way.Currently,CCAMLR is making effort to develop a refined krill fishery management approach based on more solid science,which requires accurate predictions of krill distribution.To address this need,this study investigated the effects of algorithm and spatial resolution on the performance of Antarctic krill distribution modelling.We integrated acoustic data from 4 surveys conducted in the waters adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula with 11 environmental variables characterizing krill prey conditions,water mass properties,and seafloor topography.These data were processed at 4 spatial resolutions(5,10,15,and 20 km)to fit distribution models using 4 algorithms:Random Forests(RF),Generalized Additive Models(GAM),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).Model performance was assessed and compared in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy.The results showed that RF achieved the highest predictive performance at most resolutions,whereas GAM performed best at the coarsest resolution(20 km).XGBoost closely following RF in accuracy and demonstrated robustness as evidenced by the highly consistent partial dependence curves across resolutions.In contrast,ANN exhibited limitations with smaller sample sizes,resulting in comparatively poorer predictive performance.The analysis revealed a trade-off whereby reducing spatial resolution improved model fit and mitigated zero-inflation at the expense of fine-scale information and overall predictive accuracy.Ensemble models,integrating RF,GAM,and XGBoost,are proposed as potential balanced solutions to improve predictive stability,offering a more robust scientific basis for the refinement of krill management.展开更多
The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with clim...The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.展开更多
Regard to the real-time dynamic digital twin modelling problem of a new-type distribution network that includes distributed resources such as distributed photovoltaic,energy storage,charging pile,and electric vehicle,...Regard to the real-time dynamic digital twin modelling problem of a new-type distribution network that includes distributed resources such as distributed photovoltaic,energy storage,charging pile,and electric vehicle,a new-type distribution network digital twin topology modeling method based on Common Information Model(CIM)specifications and spectral clustering is proposed.Firstly,according to the specifications of the CIM standard,the digital twin topology models of distributed resources are extended and established.Secondly,based on the digital twin topology models of distributed resources,a digital twin aggregation modelling method for new-type distribution network is proposed based on spectral clustering.Furthermore,an online linked update strategy for the digital twin model of new-type distribution network that integrates real-time topology states is proposed.Finally,a case study is conducted on a distribution network in a certain demonstration area in China,and the results verify the practicability and effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.This lays the foundation for the application of electrical network twin analysis,such as power flow calculation,optimal power flow,economic dispatch,and safety check,in a new-type distribution network that includes diversified distributed resources.展开更多
Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characterist...Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characteristic,rendering traditional distribution models and parameter estimation methods less effective.To address this,this paper proposes a dual compound-Gaussian model with inverse Gaussian texture(CG-IG)distribution model and combines it with an improved Adam algorithm to introduce a method for parameter correction.This method effectively fits sea clutter with heavy-tailed characteristics.Experiments with real measured sea clutter data show that the dual CGIG distribution model,after parameter correction,accurately describes the heavy-tailed phenomenon in sea clutter amplitude distribution,and the overall mean square error of the distribution is reduced.展开更多
A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncer...A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.展开更多
For studying the carbon thermal reduction rules of titanium in hot metal and providing a theoretical basis for the blast furnace（BF） hearth protection, the distribution behavior of titanium between low-titanium slag...For studying the carbon thermal reduction rules of titanium in hot metal and providing a theoretical basis for the blast furnace（BF） hearth protection, the distribution behavior of titanium between low-titanium slag system of CaO-SiO2-MgO-Al2O3-TiO2 and hot metal was studied using analytical reagents in a temperature range from 1350 °C to 1600 °C. Through high temperature melting, rapid quenching, chemical analysis and thermodynamic model calculating, the results showed that the increase of reaction temperature, which improved the titanium distribution L（Ti） and lowered the system activity coefficient γsys, leads to the rise of equilibrium constant. Combined with Wagner and congregated electron phase models, the data obtained in distribution experiments were used to fit out the Gibbs free energy formula of titanium carbothermic reduction. Finally, the relations between the contents of Si and Ti in hot metal and the titanium load to reach the minimum w（Ti） for the formation of Ti C were given.展开更多
For performance optimization such as placement,interconnect synthesis,and routing, an efficient and accurate interconnect delay metric is critical,even in design tools development like design for yield （DFY） and des...For performance optimization such as placement,interconnect synthesis,and routing, an efficient and accurate interconnect delay metric is critical,even in design tools development like design for yield （DFY） and design for manufacture （DFM）. In the nanometer regime, the recently proposed delay models for RLC interconnects based on statistical probability density function （PDF）interpretation such as PRIMO,H-gamma,WED and RLD bridge the gap between accuracy and efficiency. However, these models always require table look-up when operating. In this paper, a novel delay model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution （BSD） is presented. BSD can accomplish interconnect delay estimation fast and accurately without table look-up operations. Furthermore, it only needs the first two moments to match. Experimental results in 90nm technology show that BSD is robust, easy to implement,efficient,and accurate.展开更多
Due to the fact that the emergency medicine distribution is vital to the quick response to urgent demand when an epidemic occurs, the optimal vaccine distribution approach is explored according to the epidemic diffusi...Due to the fact that the emergency medicine distribution is vital to the quick response to urgent demand when an epidemic occurs, the optimal vaccine distribution approach is explored according to the epidemic diffusion rule and different urgency degrees of affected areas with the background of the epidemic outbreak in a given region. First, the SIQR （susceptible, infected, quarantined,recovered） epidemic model with pulse vaccination is introduced to describe the epidemic diffusion rule and obtain the demanded vaccine in each pulse. Based on the SIQR model, the affected areas are clustered by using the self-organizing map （SOM） neutral network to qualify the results. Then, a dynamic vaccine distribution model is formulated, incorporating the results of clustering the affected areas with the goals of both reducing the transportation cost and decreasing the unsatisfied demand for the emergency logistics network. Numerical study with twenty affected areas and four distribution centers is carried out. The corresponding numerical results indicate that the proposed approach can make an outstanding contribution to controlling the affected areas with a relatively high degree of urgency, and the comparison results prove that the performance of the clustering method is superior to that of the non-clustering method on controlling epidemic diffusion.展开更多
A computer model has been developed to simulate the distribution behaviors of Ni, Co. Sn. Ph,Zn, As, Sb, Bi, An and Ag in copper smelting process. The model assumes that the copper smelting furnaceis in thermodynamic ...A computer model has been developed to simulate the distribution behaviors of Ni, Co. Sn. Ph,Zn, As, Sb, Bi, An and Ag in copper smelting process. The model assumes that the copper smelting furnaceis in thermodynamic equilibrium. As many as 21 elements (Cu. S, Fe. Ni, Co. Sn, As, Sb. Bi, Ph. Zn.An. Ag. O, N, C, H, Ca, Mg, Al, and St) and 73 compounds are considered. This model accounts forphysical entrainment in the melts. The predictions by the present computer model are compared with theknown commercial data from Guixi Smelter in China, Home Smelter in Canada and Naoshima Smelter inJapan. The agreements between the computer predictions and the commercial data are excellent, so that thepresent computer model can be used to monitor and optimize the actual industrial operations of copper smelting. It is applicable to simulation of almost all copper pyrometallurgical processes.展开更多
We used GIS and maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of six snake species belong to three families in Kroumiria（Northwestern Tunisia）： Natricidae（Natrix maura and Natrix astreptophora）, Colubrida...We used GIS and maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of six snake species belong to three families in Kroumiria（Northwestern Tunisia）： Natricidae（Natrix maura and Natrix astreptophora）, Colubridae（Hemorrhois hippocrepis, Coronella girondica and Macroprotodon mauritanicus）, and Lamprophiidae（Malpolon insignitus）. The suitable habitat for each species was modelled using the maximum entropy algorithm, combining presence field data（collected during 16 years：2000–2015） with a set of seven environmental variables（mean annual precipitation, elevation, slope gradient,aspect, distance to watercourses, land surface temperature and normalized Differential Vegetation Index. The relative importance of these environmental variables was evaluated by jackknife tests and the predictive power of our models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic. The main explicative variables of the species distribution were distance from streams and elevation, with contributions ranging from 60 to 77 and from 10 to 25%,respectively. Our study provided the first habitat suitability models for snakes in Kroumiria and this information can be used by conservation biologists and land managers concerned with preserving snakes in Kroumiria.展开更多
This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key de...This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key design parameters including casing dimensions and detonation positions.The paper details the finite element analysis for fragmentation,the characterizations of the dynamic hardening and fracture models,the generation of comprehensive datasets,and the training of the ANN model.The results show the influence of casing dimensions on fragment velocity distributions,with the tendencies indicating increased resultant velocity with reduced thickness,increased length and diameter.The model's predictive capability is demonstrated through the accurate predictions for both training and testing datasets,showing its potential for the real-time prediction of fragmentation performance.展开更多
With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distr...With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2000 based on a cloud model. The spatial variation of the temporal distribution characteristics and the temporal variation of the spatial distribution characteristics were both analyzed. In addition, the relationships between the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation were also studied. The results show that, using a cloud model, it is possible to intuitively describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in cloud images. Water resources in Guangdong Province and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are differentiated by their geographic locations. Downstream and coastal areas have a larger amount of water resources with greater uniformity and stronger stability in terms of temporal distribution. Regions with more precipitation possess larger amounts of water resources, and years with more precipitation show greater nonuniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources. The correlation between the nonuniformity of the temporal distribution and local precipitation is small, and no correlation is found between the stability of the nonuniformity of the temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation. The amount of water resources in Guangdong Province shows an increasing trend from 1956 to 2000, the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources declines, and the stability of the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources is enhanced.展开更多
Muon tomography is a capable imaging technique to measure the geometry of high-Z objects. However,most existed algorithms used in muon tomography have obscured the effects of angular distribution and momentum spectra ...Muon tomography is a capable imaging technique to measure the geometry of high-Z objects. However,most existed algorithms used in muon tomography have obscured the effects of angular distribution and momentum spectra of cosmic ray muons and reduced the spatial resolution. We present a modified multi-group model that takes into account these effects and calibrates the model by the material of lead. Performance tests establish that the model is capable of measuring the thickness of a Pb slab and identifying the material of an unknown slab on a reasonable exposure timescale, in both cases of complete and incomplete angular data. Results show that the modified multi-group model is helpful for improvements in image resolution in real applications.展开更多
Net Primary Productivity （NPP） is one of the important biophysical variables of vegetation activity, and it plays an important role in studying global carbon cycle, carbon source and sink of ecosystem, and spatial a...Net Primary Productivity （NPP） is one of the important biophysical variables of vegetation activity, and it plays an important role in studying global carbon cycle, carbon source and sink of ecosystem, and spatial and temporal distribution of CO2. Remote sensing can provide broad view quickly, timely and multi-temporally, which makes it an attractive and powerful tool for studying ecosystem primary productivity, at scales ranging from local to global. This paper aims to use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data to estimate and analyze spatial and temporal distribution of NPP of the northern Hebei Province in 2001 based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model. The spatial distribution of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation （APAR） of vegetation and light use efficiency in three geographical subregions, that is, Bashang Plateau Region, Basin Region in the northwestern Hebei Province and Yanshan Mountainous Region in the Northern Hebei Province were analyzed, and total NPP spatial distribution of the study area in 2001 was discussed. Based on 16-day MODIS Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation （FPAR） product, 16-day composite NPP dynamics were calculated using CASA model; the seasonal dynamics of vegetation NPP in three subreglons were also analyzed. Result reveals that the total NPP of the study area in 2001 was 25.1877 × 10^6gC/（m^2.a）, and NPP in 2001 ranged from 2 to 608gC/（m^2-a）, with an average of 337.516gC/（m^2.a）. NPP of the study area in 2001 accumulated mainly from May to September （DOY 129-272）, high NIP values appeared from June to August （DOY 177-204）, and the maximum NPP appeared from late July to mid-August （DOY 209-224）.展开更多
Advancement in field of GIS and Information Technology has taken conservation works and strategies a step further as most conservation works are now dependent on these technologies. The present study explores the pred...Advancement in field of GIS and Information Technology has taken conservation works and strategies a step further as most conservation works are now dependent on these technologies. The present study explores the prediction ability of MAXENT using a very low sample size by applying jackknife analysis over a well defined smaller region and using only climate data. Vanda bicolor is a horticulture important orchid grown in certain patches of North Eastern region of India and the species considered to be “Vulnerable”. Present study reports a distribution prediction model using different geo-climatic parameters for a small area. Model validation by ground truthing gives a significant successful result which clearly defines the ability of MAXENT prediction model to give high success rate (71%) with low training samples. Use of the low sample size over a larger area results in unstable models however application of these samples in smaller radius around the occurrence points could provide good working models.展开更多
Firstly, using the damage model for rock based on Lemaitre hypothesis about strain equivalence, a new technique for measuring strength of rock micro-cells by adopting the Mohr-Coulomb criterion was developed, and a st...Firstly, using the damage model for rock based on Lemaitre hypothesis about strain equivalence, a new technique for measuring strength of rock micro-cells by adopting the Mohr-Coulomb criterion was developed, and a statistical damage evolution equation was established based on the property that strength of micro-cells is consistent with normal distribution function, through discussing the characteristics of random distributions for strength of micro-cells, then a statistical damage constitutive model that can simulate the full process of rock strain softening under specific confining pressure was set up. Secondly, a new method to determine the model parameters which can be applied to the situations under different confining pressures was proposed, by deeply studying the relations between the model parameters and characteristic parameters of the full stress-strain curve under different confining pressures. Therefore, a unified statistical damage constitutive model for rock softening which can reflect the effect of different confining pressures was set up. This model makes the physical property of model parameters explicit, contains only conventional mechanical parameters, and leads its application more convenient. Finally, the rationality of this model and its parameters-determining method were identified via comparative analyses between theoretical and experimental curves.展开更多
文摘Theauthor proposes a dual layer source grid load storage collaborative planning model based on Benders decomposition to optimize the low-carbon and economic performance of the distribution network.The model plans the configuration of photovoltaic(3.8 MW),wind power(2.5 MW),energy storage(2.2 MWh),and SVC(1.2 Mvar)through interaction between upper and lower layers,and modifies lines 2–3,8–9,etc.to improve transmission capacity and voltage stability.The author uses normal distribution and Monte Carlo method to model load uncertainty,and combines Weibull distribution to describe wind speed characteristics.Compared to the traditional three-layer model(TLM),Benders decomposition-based two-layer model(BLBD)has a 58.1%reduction in convergence time(5.36 vs.12.78 h),a 51.1%reduction in iteration times(23 vs.47 times),a 8.07%reduction in total cost(12.436 vs.13.528 million yuan),and a 9.62%reduction in carbon emissions(12,456 vs.13,782 t).After optimization,the peak valley difference decreased from4.1 to 2.9MW,the renewable energy consumption rate reached 93.4%,and the energy storage efficiency was 87.6%.Themodel has been validated in the IEEE 33 node system,demonstrating its superiority in terms of economy,low-carbon,and reliability.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(32201643)the Key Research Projects of Yibin,research and integrated demonstration and key technologies for smart bamboo industry(YBZD2024-1).
文摘Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns.The genus of Asian bamboo,Phyllostachys,possesses significant ecological and economic values,and represents the most speciesrich genus in the Bambusoideae subfamily.Based on the distribution data of 46 species and 20 environmental variables,we used the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS calculations to simulate current and future potential richness distributions under three distinct CO_(2) emission scenarios.The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good predictive ability,with a mean area under the working characteristic curve(AUC value)of 0.91 for all species.The main environmental variables that impacted the future distribution of most Phyllostachys species were elevation,variations of seasonal precipitation,and mean diurnal range.Phyllostachys species are currently concentrated in southeastern China.Under future climate projections,18 species exhibited significant habitat contraction across three or more future climate scenarios,but suitable habitats for other species will expand.This enhancement is most pronounced under the extreme climate scenario(2090s-SSP585),primarily driven by high species gains contributing to elevated turnover values across scenarios.The center of maximum richness will progressively shift southwestward over time.Predictive modeling of Phyllostachys richness distribution dynamics under climate change enhances our understanding of its biogeography and informs strategic introduction programs to bamboo management and augments China’s carbon sequestration capacity.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFD2400800)the Laoshan Laboratory(Nos.LSKJ202203801,LSKJ202203204)+4 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Nos.ZR2023MD127,ZR2021MD075)the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund CAFS(Nos.2023TD28,20603022023012)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32373107)the China Agriculture Research System(No.CARS-50)the Taishan Scholars Program。
文摘Giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera,an important foundation species with great ecological and economic value,is threatened by climate change.To better understand the impact of climate warming on M.pyrifera,we investigated its global distribution dynamics by an optimized species distribution model(SDM).Results showed that wave height,sea surface temperature,benthic temperature,and benthic phosphate concentration were key factors shaping the distribution of M.pyrifera.In addition to currently known distribution regions,the model revealed potential suitable habitats globally.Under future climate scenarios,the habitat suitability of M.pyrifera would decrease at low latitudes and increase at high latitudes,resulting in a poleward shift of suitable habitats.In the regions currently occupied by M.pyrifera,the high suitable habitats were predicted to shrink,which implies that the existing M.pyrifera would be adversely impacted.These results serve as references for the conservation and utilization of M.pyrifera resource.
文摘Resilience studies for water distribution systems(WDS)coupled with other interdependent infrastructure systems attract increasing attention from stakeholders and researchers.However,most existing large-scale WDS models are single infrastructure-based without consideration of other infrastructure systems.This is due to a lack of needed information on systems coupling,the structure of the simulator used,and the computation load involved.To address these gaps,this paper presents a synthetic modeling framework for a real-world WDS as coordinating with other infrastructure systems via a building-mediated clustering approach through consideration of physical distance and node capacity.First,the WDS network topology and operation parameters are inferred via bulk open-source information.A building-mediated clustering approach is designed to systematically derive the interdependence between the WDS and the power system similarly created as a case study.Second,a novel linearization method is developed in formulating the WDS model that can relieve computation load while maintaining accuracy.Finally,a disruption-recovery framework is developed to demonstrate the proposed methodology in modelling WDS resilience.The framework is applied to a neighborhood in Queenstown,Singapore,an area of 20.43 km^(2) and 96,000 population.The near-real-time simulations on the coupled system involving 308 nodes and 384 links showcase the effectiveness and application of the proposed synthetic modeling and formulation.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant no.2022YFC2807504)the Marine S&T Fund of Shandong Province for Qingdao Marine Science and Technology Center(Grant no.2022QNLM030002-1)the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research(Grant no.2023TD02).
文摘Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba),widely distributes around Antarctica,is a key species supporting the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean ecosystem.The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources(CCAMLR)has thus managed the krill fishery according to a precautionary way.Currently,CCAMLR is making effort to develop a refined krill fishery management approach based on more solid science,which requires accurate predictions of krill distribution.To address this need,this study investigated the effects of algorithm and spatial resolution on the performance of Antarctic krill distribution modelling.We integrated acoustic data from 4 surveys conducted in the waters adjacent to the Antarctic Peninsula with 11 environmental variables characterizing krill prey conditions,water mass properties,and seafloor topography.These data were processed at 4 spatial resolutions(5,10,15,and 20 km)to fit distribution models using 4 algorithms:Random Forests(RF),Generalized Additive Models(GAM),Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and Artificial Neural Networks(ANN).Model performance was assessed and compared in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive accuracy.The results showed that RF achieved the highest predictive performance at most resolutions,whereas GAM performed best at the coarsest resolution(20 km).XGBoost closely following RF in accuracy and demonstrated robustness as evidenced by the highly consistent partial dependence curves across resolutions.In contrast,ANN exhibited limitations with smaller sample sizes,resulting in comparatively poorer predictive performance.The analysis revealed a trade-off whereby reducing spatial resolution improved model fit and mitigated zero-inflation at the expense of fine-scale information and overall predictive accuracy.Ensemble models,integrating RF,GAM,and XGBoost,are proposed as potential balanced solutions to improve predictive stability,offering a more robust scientific basis for the refinement of krill management.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.23ZR1427100)the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFD2401303)the Shanghai Talent Development Funding for the Project(No.2021078)。
文摘The Argentine shortfin squid Illex argentinus is an economically important short-lived species widely distributed in the southwest Atlantic Ocean.The abundance and distribution of I.argentinus are associated with climate change and environmental fluctuations.The potential distribution of I.argentinus was modeled with various environmental variables including sea surface temperature(SST),sea surface height(SSH),chlorophyll a,sea surface salinity(SSS),net primary productivity(NPP),mixed layer depth(MLD),eddy kinetic energy(EKE),and photosynthetically active radiation(PAR)using the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)approach during the peak fishing seasons(January–April).The habitat suitability index(HSI)was defined as the probability of species emergence from the MaxEnt model and the area of HSI≥0.6 was regarded as suitable.Results indicate that the predicted habitat correlated with the actual fishing position,with similar trends in the percentages of suitable habitats and catch per unit effort(CPUE)of I.argentinus from January to April.Moreover,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD were identified critical environmental variables for the distribution of I.argentinus.In addition,the median of preferred ranges of the critical environmental variables were concentrated within the suitable habitats of I.argentinus.The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)was greater than 0.96 for all four months.Variations in latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG and LONG)of fishing effort were consistent with latitudinal and longitudinal gravity centers(LATG_H and LONG_H)of the HSI.Our findings suggest that the MaxEnt model is an effective tool to predict the potential distribution of I.argentinus.Meanwhile,SST,SSH,PAR,and MLD should be given with more extensive attention in predicting the potential distribution of I.argentinus,as they are important environmental indicators that can help decision-makers search for the fishing ground of I.argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic.
基金Supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(5108-202218280A-2-396-XG).
文摘Regard to the real-time dynamic digital twin modelling problem of a new-type distribution network that includes distributed resources such as distributed photovoltaic,energy storage,charging pile,and electric vehicle,a new-type distribution network digital twin topology modeling method based on Common Information Model(CIM)specifications and spectral clustering is proposed.Firstly,according to the specifications of the CIM standard,the digital twin topology models of distributed resources are extended and established.Secondly,based on the digital twin topology models of distributed resources,a digital twin aggregation modelling method for new-type distribution network is proposed based on spectral clustering.Furthermore,an online linked update strategy for the digital twin model of new-type distribution network that integrates real-time topology states is proposed.Finally,a case study is conducted on a distribution network in a certain demonstration area in China,and the results verify the practicability and effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper.This lays the foundation for the application of electrical network twin analysis,such as power flow calculation,optimal power flow,economic dispatch,and safety check,in a new-type distribution network that includes diversified distributed resources.
文摘Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characteristic,rendering traditional distribution models and parameter estimation methods less effective.To address this,this paper proposes a dual compound-Gaussian model with inverse Gaussian texture(CG-IG)distribution model and combines it with an improved Adam algorithm to introduce a method for parameter correction.This method effectively fits sea clutter with heavy-tailed characteristics.Experiments with real measured sea clutter data show that the dual CGIG distribution model,after parameter correction,accurately describes the heavy-tailed phenomenon in sea clutter amplitude distribution,and the overall mean square error of the distribution is reduced.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U24B20156)the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China(No.JCKY2021204B051)the National Laboratory of Space Intelligent Control of China(Nos.HTKJ2023KL502005 and HTKJ2024KL502007)。
文摘A chance-constrained energy dispatch model based on the distributed stochastic model predictive control(DSMPC)approach for an islanded multi-microgrid system is proposed.An ambiguity set considering the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy sources(RESs)is constructed without requiring the full distribution knowledge of the uncertainties.The power balance chance constraint is reformulated within the framework of the distributionally robust optimization(DRO)approach.With the exchange of information and energy flow,each microgrid can achieve its local supply-demand balance.Furthermore,the closed-loop stability and recursive feasibility of the proposed algorithm are proved.The comparative results with other DSMPC methods show that a trade-off between robustness and economy can be achieved.
基金Project(2012CB720401)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(2011BAC01B02)supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program of China
文摘For studying the carbon thermal reduction rules of titanium in hot metal and providing a theoretical basis for the blast furnace（BF） hearth protection, the distribution behavior of titanium between low-titanium slag system of CaO-SiO2-MgO-Al2O3-TiO2 and hot metal was studied using analytical reagents in a temperature range from 1350 °C to 1600 °C. Through high temperature melting, rapid quenching, chemical analysis and thermodynamic model calculating, the results showed that the increase of reaction temperature, which improved the titanium distribution L（Ti） and lowered the system activity coefficient γsys, leads to the rise of equilibrium constant. Combined with Wagner and congregated electron phase models, the data obtained in distribution experiments were used to fit out the Gibbs free energy formula of titanium carbothermic reduction. Finally, the relations between the contents of Si and Ti in hot metal and the titanium load to reach the minimum w（Ti） for the formation of Ti C were given.
文摘For performance optimization such as placement,interconnect synthesis,and routing, an efficient and accurate interconnect delay metric is critical,even in design tools development like design for yield （DFY） and design for manufacture （DFM）. In the nanometer regime, the recently proposed delay models for RLC interconnects based on statistical probability density function （PDF）interpretation such as PRIMO,H-gamma,WED and RLD bridge the gap between accuracy and efficiency. However, these models always require table look-up when operating. In this paper, a novel delay model based on the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution （BSD） is presented. BSD can accomplish interconnect delay estimation fast and accurately without table look-up operations. Furthermore, it only needs the first two moments to match. Experimental results in 90nm technology show that BSD is robust, easy to implement,efficient,and accurate.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70671021)
文摘Due to the fact that the emergency medicine distribution is vital to the quick response to urgent demand when an epidemic occurs, the optimal vaccine distribution approach is explored according to the epidemic diffusion rule and different urgency degrees of affected areas with the background of the epidemic outbreak in a given region. First, the SIQR （susceptible, infected, quarantined,recovered） epidemic model with pulse vaccination is introduced to describe the epidemic diffusion rule and obtain the demanded vaccine in each pulse. Based on the SIQR model, the affected areas are clustered by using the self-organizing map （SOM） neutral network to qualify the results. Then, a dynamic vaccine distribution model is formulated, incorporating the results of clustering the affected areas with the goals of both reducing the transportation cost and decreasing the unsatisfied demand for the emergency logistics network. Numerical study with twenty affected areas and four distribution centers is carried out. The corresponding numerical results indicate that the proposed approach can make an outstanding contribution to controlling the affected areas with a relatively high degree of urgency, and the comparison results prove that the performance of the clustering method is superior to that of the non-clustering method on controlling epidemic diffusion.
文摘A computer model has been developed to simulate the distribution behaviors of Ni, Co. Sn. Ph,Zn, As, Sb, Bi, An and Ag in copper smelting process. The model assumes that the copper smelting furnaceis in thermodynamic equilibrium. As many as 21 elements (Cu. S, Fe. Ni, Co. Sn, As, Sb. Bi, Ph. Zn.An. Ag. O, N, C, H, Ca, Mg, Al, and St) and 73 compounds are considered. This model accounts forphysical entrainment in the melts. The predictions by the present computer model are compared with theknown commercial data from Guixi Smelter in China, Home Smelter in Canada and Naoshima Smelter inJapan. The agreements between the computer predictions and the commercial data are excellent, so that thepresent computer model can be used to monitor and optimize the actual industrial operations of copper smelting. It is applicable to simulation of almost all copper pyrometallurgical processes.
基金Funding support for this work was provided by the Silvo-Pastoral Institute of Tabarka
文摘We used GIS and maximum entropy to predict the potential distribution of six snake species belong to three families in Kroumiria（Northwestern Tunisia）： Natricidae（Natrix maura and Natrix astreptophora）, Colubridae（Hemorrhois hippocrepis, Coronella girondica and Macroprotodon mauritanicus）, and Lamprophiidae（Malpolon insignitus）. The suitable habitat for each species was modelled using the maximum entropy algorithm, combining presence field data（collected during 16 years：2000–2015） with a set of seven environmental variables（mean annual precipitation, elevation, slope gradient,aspect, distance to watercourses, land surface temperature and normalized Differential Vegetation Index. The relative importance of these environmental variables was evaluated by jackknife tests and the predictive power of our models was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic. The main explicative variables of the species distribution were distance from streams and elevation, with contributions ranging from 60 to 77 and from 10 to 25%,respectively. Our study provided the first habitat suitability models for snakes in Kroumiria and this information can be used by conservation biologists and land managers concerned with preserving snakes in Kroumiria.
基金supported by Poongsan-KAIST Future Research Center Projectthe fund support provided by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT)(Grant No.2023R1A2C2005661)。
文摘This study presents a machine learning-based method for predicting fragment velocity distribution in warhead fragmentation under explosive loading condition.The fragment resultant velocities are correlated with key design parameters including casing dimensions and detonation positions.The paper details the finite element analysis for fragmentation,the characterizations of the dynamic hardening and fracture models,the generation of comprehensive datasets,and the training of the ANN model.The results show the influence of casing dimensions on fragment velocity distributions,with the tendencies indicating increased resultant velocity with reduced thickness,increased length and diameter.The model's predictive capability is demonstrated through the accurate predictions for both training and testing datasets,showing its potential for the real-time prediction of fragmentation performance.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project of Water Pollution Control and Treatment(Grants No.2014ZX07405002,2012ZX07506007,2012ZX07506006,and 2012ZX07506002)the Natural Science Foundation of the Anhui Higher Education Institutions of China(Grant No.KJ2016A868)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘With a focus on the difficulty of quantitatively describing the degree of nonuniformity of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources, quantitative research was carried out on the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in Guangdong Province from 1956 to 2000 based on a cloud model. The spatial variation of the temporal distribution characteristics and the temporal variation of the spatial distribution characteristics were both analyzed. In addition, the relationships between the numerical characteristics of the cloud model of temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation were also studied. The results show that, using a cloud model, it is possible to intuitively describe the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of water resources in cloud images. Water resources in Guangdong Province and their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics are differentiated by their geographic locations. Downstream and coastal areas have a larger amount of water resources with greater uniformity and stronger stability in terms of temporal distribution. Regions with more precipitation possess larger amounts of water resources, and years with more precipitation show greater nonuniformity in the spatial distribution of water resources. The correlation between the nonuniformity of the temporal distribution and local precipitation is small, and no correlation is found between the stability of the nonuniformity of the temporal and spatial distributions of water resources and precipitation. The amount of water resources in Guangdong Province shows an increasing trend from 1956 to 2000, the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources declines, and the stability of the nonuniformity of the spatial distribution of water resources is enhanced.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Development Foundation of CAEP(No.2015B0103014)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11605163)
文摘Muon tomography is a capable imaging technique to measure the geometry of high-Z objects. However,most existed algorithms used in muon tomography have obscured the effects of angular distribution and momentum spectra of cosmic ray muons and reduced the spatial resolution. We present a modified multi-group model that takes into account these effects and calibrates the model by the material of lead. Performance tests establish that the model is capable of measuring the thickness of a Pb slab and identifying the material of an unknown slab on a reasonable exposure timescale, in both cases of complete and incomplete angular data. Results show that the modified multi-group model is helpful for improvements in image resolution in real applications.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40571117), the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX3-SW-338), Research foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Institute of Remote Sensing Applications, Chinese Academy of Sciences (KQ060006)
文摘Net Primary Productivity （NPP） is one of the important biophysical variables of vegetation activity, and it plays an important role in studying global carbon cycle, carbon source and sink of ecosystem, and spatial and temporal distribution of CO2. Remote sensing can provide broad view quickly, timely and multi-temporally, which makes it an attractive and powerful tool for studying ecosystem primary productivity, at scales ranging from local to global. This paper aims to use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data to estimate and analyze spatial and temporal distribution of NPP of the northern Hebei Province in 2001 based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model. The spatial distribution of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation （APAR） of vegetation and light use efficiency in three geographical subregions, that is, Bashang Plateau Region, Basin Region in the northwestern Hebei Province and Yanshan Mountainous Region in the Northern Hebei Province were analyzed, and total NPP spatial distribution of the study area in 2001 was discussed. Based on 16-day MODIS Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation （FPAR） product, 16-day composite NPP dynamics were calculated using CASA model; the seasonal dynamics of vegetation NPP in three subreglons were also analyzed. Result reveals that the total NPP of the study area in 2001 was 25.1877 × 10^6gC/（m^2.a）, and NPP in 2001 ranged from 2 to 608gC/（m^2-a）, with an average of 337.516gC/（m^2.a）. NPP of the study area in 2001 accumulated mainly from May to September （DOY 129-272）, high NIP values appeared from June to August （DOY 177-204）, and the maximum NPP appeared from late July to mid-August （DOY 209-224）.
文摘Advancement in field of GIS and Information Technology has taken conservation works and strategies a step further as most conservation works are now dependent on these technologies. The present study explores the prediction ability of MAXENT using a very low sample size by applying jackknife analysis over a well defined smaller region and using only climate data. Vanda bicolor is a horticulture important orchid grown in certain patches of North Eastern region of India and the species considered to be “Vulnerable”. Present study reports a distribution prediction model using different geo-climatic parameters for a small area. Model validation by ground truthing gives a significant successful result which clearly defines the ability of MAXENT prediction model to give high success rate (71%) with low training samples. Use of the low sample size over a larger area results in unstable models however application of these samples in smaller radius around the occurrence points could provide good working models.
基金Project (50378036) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (03JJY5024) supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China
文摘Firstly, using the damage model for rock based on Lemaitre hypothesis about strain equivalence, a new technique for measuring strength of rock micro-cells by adopting the Mohr-Coulomb criterion was developed, and a statistical damage evolution equation was established based on the property that strength of micro-cells is consistent with normal distribution function, through discussing the characteristics of random distributions for strength of micro-cells, then a statistical damage constitutive model that can simulate the full process of rock strain softening under specific confining pressure was set up. Secondly, a new method to determine the model parameters which can be applied to the situations under different confining pressures was proposed, by deeply studying the relations between the model parameters and characteristic parameters of the full stress-strain curve under different confining pressures. Therefore, a unified statistical damage constitutive model for rock softening which can reflect the effect of different confining pressures was set up. This model makes the physical property of model parameters explicit, contains only conventional mechanical parameters, and leads its application more convenient. Finally, the rationality of this model and its parameters-determining method were identified via comparative analyses between theoretical and experimental curves.
