Today,with the rapid development of the internet,a large amount of information often accompanies the rapid transmission of disease outbreaks,and increasing numbers of scholars are studying the relationship between inf...Today,with the rapid development of the internet,a large amount of information often accompanies the rapid transmission of disease outbreaks,and increasing numbers of scholars are studying the relationship between information and the disease transmission process using complex networks.In fact,the disease transmission process is very complex.Besides this information,there will often be individual behavioral measures and other factors to consider.Most of the previous research has aimed to establish a two-layer network model to consider the impact of information on the transmission process of disease,rarely divided into information and behavior,respectively.To carry out a more in-depth analysis of the disease transmission process and the intrinsic influencing mechanism,this paper divides information and behavior into two layers and proposes the establishment of a complex network to study the dynamic co-evolution of information diffusion,vaccination behavior,and disease transmission.This is achieved by considering four influential relationships between adjacent layers in multilayer networks.In the information layer,the diffusion process of negative information is described,and the feedback effects of local and global vaccination are considered.In the behavioral layer,an individual's vaccination behavior is described,and the probability of an individual receiving a vaccination is influenced by two factors:the influence of negative information,and the influence of local and global disease severity.In the disease layer,individual susceptibility is considered to be influenced by vaccination behavior.The state transition equations are derived using the micro Markov chain approach(MMCA),and disease prevalence thresholds are obtained.It is demonstrated through simulation experiments that the negative information diffusion is less influenced by local vaccination behavior,and is mainly influenced by global vaccination behavior;vaccination behavior is mainly influenced by local disease conditions,and is less influenced by global disease conditions;the disease transmission threshold increases with the increasing vaccination rate;and the scale of disease transmission increases with the increasing negative information diffusion rate and decreases with the increasing vaccination rate.Finally,it is found that when individual vaccination behavior considers both the influence of negative information and disease,it can increase the disease transmission threshold and reduce the scale of disease transmission.Therefore,we should resist the diffusion of negative information,increase vaccination proportions,and take appropriate protective measures in time.展开更多
Today,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and a host of global challenges continue to emerge.The international community urgently requires effective global governance.As Chinese President Xi J...Today,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and a host of global challenges continue to emerge.The international community urgently requires effective global governance.As Chinese President Xi Jinping has pointed out,multilateralism is the inevitable choice for addressing the world’s difficulties and challenges.1 However,various negative trends in international politics are undermining or impeding the effectiveness of multilateralism and aggravating the global governance deficit.Against this backdrop,it is essential to reassess the importance of multilateralism in global governance,identify the challenges it faces,and explore feasible pathways for collective action to advance global governance.展开更多
The detonation of an IED near a military vehicle induces different damage effects on the vehicle and its occupants. There are local effects from fragments and projectiles but there are also global effects from a momen...The detonation of an IED near a military vehicle induces different damage effects on the vehicle and its occupants. There are local effects from fragments and projectiles but there are also global effects from a momentum transfer on the complete vehicle structure and a subsequent dynamical motion of the vehicle with phenomena like overturning or vehicle displacement from the road.Questions like this can be answered with numerical finite-element simulations but there is also the need for engineering tools that allow a quick and nearly instantaneous simulation of these phenomena. The following work presents an approach for a fast analysis of global IED effects on vehicles. The physical modelling is based on analytical formula and empirical data that describe the momentum transfer of a detonation on a nearby structure. This momentum is the initial condition for the calculation of the following vehicle motion and the simulation of vehicle dynamics and jump height.The software itself has a modern GUI that allows the generation of the vehicle structure and the threat scenario together with an interactive analysis of the simulation results.The engineering tool is validated with small size generic vehicle tests where jump height and the vehicle motion are compared. The software allows a detailed analysis of global IED effects and can be additionally used in an inverse mode for the analysis of incidents with the determination of used HE masses in an IED attack.展开更多
The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses accurate atomic clocks in satellites and on the ground to provide world-wide position and time determination. These clocks have gravitational and motional frequency shifts whic...The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses accurate atomic clocks in satellites and on the ground to provide world-wide position and time determination. These clocks have gravitational and motional frequency shifts which are so large that, without properly accounting for relativistic effects, the system would not work. As a practical matter, therefore, many individuals who use the GPS need to understand how relativistic effects accounted for in the system. This paper discusses relativistic effects arising from both special relativity and general relativity, and how these effects are incorporated in GPS operations. Two introductory sections on kinematics in special and general relativity, respectively, are followed by a section which describes how relativistic effects should be accounted for. The concept of synchroization in the Earth-Centered Inertial frame is discussed in detail. Numerical and experimental examples are given, showing the sizes of the various effects. The treatment of special and general relativity is sufficiently complete that a person should be able to follow the development without much reference to external material, except that a few standard results have been quoted from textbooks without derivation.展开更多
The Role of Manning AgenciesThe decline of the era where the people that owned the ships, managed the ships and hired their own crews saw the development of ship management firms and manning agencies. As the supply of...The Role of Manning AgenciesThe decline of the era where the people that owned the ships, managed the ships and hired their own crews saw the development of ship management firms and manning agencies. As the supply of seafarers moved from the traditional maritime nations to India, the Far East and Asia, the services of the manning agencies were gradually built into the system.展开更多
A global mean ocean model including atmospheric heating, heat capacity of the mixed layer ocean, and vertical thermal diffusivity in the lower ocean, proposed by Cess and Goldenberg (1981), is used in this paper to st...A global mean ocean model including atmospheric heating, heat capacity of the mixed layer ocean, and vertical thermal diffusivity in the lower ocean, proposed by Cess and Goldenberg (1981), is used in this paper to study the sensitivity of global warming to the vertical diffusivity. The results suggest that the behaviour of upper ocean temperature is mainly determined by the magnitude of upper layer diffusivity and an ocean with a larger diffusivity leads to a less increase of sea surface temperature and a longer time delay for the global warming induced by increasing CO2 than that with smaller one. The global warming relative to four scenarios of CO2 emission assumed by Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also estimated by using the model with two kinds of thermal diffusivities. The result shows that for various combinations of the CO2 emission scenarios and the diffusivities, the oceanic time delay to the global warming varies from 15 years to 70 years.展开更多
The most appropriate heteroskedastic models for predicting volatility of daily stocks prices of 10 major Nigerian banks are proposed. The banks are Access, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust, Skye, Diamond, ...The most appropriate heteroskedastic models for predicting volatility of daily stocks prices of 10 major Nigerian banks are proposed. The banks are Access, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust, Skye, Diamond, Fidelity, Sterling,?Union, ETI and Zenith banks;and these are examined from 2004 to 2014.?The models employed are Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH(1)), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH(1, 1)),?Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic?(EGARCH(1, 1))?and Glosten, Jagananthan and Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic?(GJR-GARCH(1, 1)). The results show that all the?bank returns are highly leptokurtic, significantly skewed and thus non-normal across the four periods except for Fidelity bank during financial crises;findings similar to those of other global markets. Also noticed is the strong evidence for the presence of heteroscedasticity, and that volatility persistence during crisis?is?higher than before the crisis across the 10 banks, with that of UBA taking the lead, about 11 times higher during the crisis. The same with persistence?levels in volatility, which were relatively higher during financial crises across the ten banks compared to before the crises.?Findings further indicate that Asymmetric GARCH models outperformed the symmetric GARCH models, especially during the financial crises and post the crises. Thus with these findings, one could generally conclude that Nigerian banks’?returns are volatility persistent during and after the crises, and are characterized by leverage effects of negative and positive shocks during these periods.展开更多
By using a nine-layer global spectral model involving fuller parameterization of physical processes, with a rhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15, experiments are performed in terms of two numerical schemes, one with...By using a nine-layer global spectral model involving fuller parameterization of physical processes, with a rhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15, experiments are performed in terms of two numerical schemes, one with long-term mean coverage of Arctic ice (Exp.1), the other without the ice (Exp.2). Results indicate that the Arctic region is a heat source in Exp.2 relative to the case in Exp.1. Under the influence of the polar heat source simulated, there still exist stationary wavetrains that produce WA-EUP and weak PNA patterns in Northern winter. That either the Arctic or the tropical heat source can cause identical climatic effects is due to the fact that the anomaly of the Arctic ice cover will directly induce a south-propagating wavetrain, and bring about the redistribution of the tropical heat source / sink. The redistribution is responsible for new wavetrains that will exert impact on the global climate. The simulation results bear out further that the polar region in Exp.2 as a heat source, can produce, by local forcing, a pair of positive and negative difference centers, which circle the Arctic moving eastwards. Observed in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is a 40-50 day oscillation in relation to the moving pair, both having the same period.展开更多
The geodetic and geophysical applications of Earth Gravity Field parameters computed from Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) are quite on the increase despite the inherent commission and omission errors of these models...The geodetic and geophysical applications of Earth Gravity Field parameters computed from Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) are quite on the increase despite the inherent commission and omission errors of these models. In view of this, this study focuses on refining and quantifying terrain-induced effects on Bouguer gravity anomalies computed directly from a total of seven recent GGMs. In the study, the Residual Terrain Model (RTM) technique was used to estimate the residual terrain effects that were added to the GGM-computed Bouguer gravity anomalies at the sixty test points in Enugu State, Nigeria. The computed residual terrain effects range from -24.6 to 37.5 mgal while the percentage of the omission errors of the GGMs based on their Root-Mean-Square (RMS) differences ranges from 7.8% to 44.7%. It can be concluded that GGM-refined Bouguer gravity anomalies are better in accuracy than the unrefined GGM-computed Bouguer gravity anomalies and hence there is need for accurate height information in the development of GGMs. We, therefore, recommend that refined Bouguer gravity anomalies obtained from HUST-Grace2016s, EIGEN-6C4 and GECO that gave best improvement amongst the seven GGMs under consideration should be used to supplement the available terrestrial Bouguer anomalies for geodetic and geophysical applications within the study area.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 72174121 and 71774111)the Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learningthe Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai (Grant No. 21ZR1444100)
文摘Today,with the rapid development of the internet,a large amount of information often accompanies the rapid transmission of disease outbreaks,and increasing numbers of scholars are studying the relationship between information and the disease transmission process using complex networks.In fact,the disease transmission process is very complex.Besides this information,there will often be individual behavioral measures and other factors to consider.Most of the previous research has aimed to establish a two-layer network model to consider the impact of information on the transmission process of disease,rarely divided into information and behavior,respectively.To carry out a more in-depth analysis of the disease transmission process and the intrinsic influencing mechanism,this paper divides information and behavior into two layers and proposes the establishment of a complex network to study the dynamic co-evolution of information diffusion,vaccination behavior,and disease transmission.This is achieved by considering four influential relationships between adjacent layers in multilayer networks.In the information layer,the diffusion process of negative information is described,and the feedback effects of local and global vaccination are considered.In the behavioral layer,an individual's vaccination behavior is described,and the probability of an individual receiving a vaccination is influenced by two factors:the influence of negative information,and the influence of local and global disease severity.In the disease layer,individual susceptibility is considered to be influenced by vaccination behavior.The state transition equations are derived using the micro Markov chain approach(MMCA),and disease prevalence thresholds are obtained.It is demonstrated through simulation experiments that the negative information diffusion is less influenced by local vaccination behavior,and is mainly influenced by global vaccination behavior;vaccination behavior is mainly influenced by local disease conditions,and is less influenced by global disease conditions;the disease transmission threshold increases with the increasing vaccination rate;and the scale of disease transmission increases with the increasing negative information diffusion rate and decreases with the increasing vaccination rate.Finally,it is found that when individual vaccination behavior considers both the influence of negative information and disease,it can increase the disease transmission threshold and reduce the scale of disease transmission.Therefore,we should resist the diffusion of negative information,increase vaccination proportions,and take appropriate protective measures in time.
文摘Today,the world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century,and a host of global challenges continue to emerge.The international community urgently requires effective global governance.As Chinese President Xi Jinping has pointed out,multilateralism is the inevitable choice for addressing the world’s difficulties and challenges.1 However,various negative trends in international politics are undermining or impeding the effectiveness of multilateralism and aggravating the global governance deficit.Against this backdrop,it is essential to reassess the importance of multilateralism in global governance,identify the challenges it faces,and explore feasible pathways for collective action to advance global governance.
基金TRDir K. Hüsing from the German test range WTD-91 GF-440 in MeppenTRDir K. Neugebauer from BAAINBw for funding this work
文摘The detonation of an IED near a military vehicle induces different damage effects on the vehicle and its occupants. There are local effects from fragments and projectiles but there are also global effects from a momentum transfer on the complete vehicle structure and a subsequent dynamical motion of the vehicle with phenomena like overturning or vehicle displacement from the road.Questions like this can be answered with numerical finite-element simulations but there is also the need for engineering tools that allow a quick and nearly instantaneous simulation of these phenomena. The following work presents an approach for a fast analysis of global IED effects on vehicles. The physical modelling is based on analytical formula and empirical data that describe the momentum transfer of a detonation on a nearby structure. This momentum is the initial condition for the calculation of the following vehicle motion and the simulation of vehicle dynamics and jump height.The software itself has a modern GUI that allows the generation of the vehicle structure and the threat scenario together with an interactive analysis of the simulation results.The engineering tool is validated with small size generic vehicle tests where jump height and the vehicle motion are compared. The software allows a detailed analysis of global IED effects and can be additionally used in an inverse mode for the analysis of incidents with the determination of used HE masses in an IED attack.
基金This work was supported in pert by NIST Contract No. 40RANB9B8112.
文摘The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses accurate atomic clocks in satellites and on the ground to provide world-wide position and time determination. These clocks have gravitational and motional frequency shifts which are so large that, without properly accounting for relativistic effects, the system would not work. As a practical matter, therefore, many individuals who use the GPS need to understand how relativistic effects accounted for in the system. This paper discusses relativistic effects arising from both special relativity and general relativity, and how these effects are incorporated in GPS operations. Two introductory sections on kinematics in special and general relativity, respectively, are followed by a section which describes how relativistic effects should be accounted for. The concept of synchroization in the Earth-Centered Inertial frame is discussed in detail. Numerical and experimental examples are given, showing the sizes of the various effects. The treatment of special and general relativity is sufficiently complete that a person should be able to follow the development without much reference to external material, except that a few standard results have been quoted from textbooks without derivation.
文摘The Role of Manning AgenciesThe decline of the era where the people that owned the ships, managed the ships and hired their own crews saw the development of ship management firms and manning agencies. As the supply of seafarers moved from the traditional maritime nations to India, the Far East and Asia, the services of the manning agencies were gradually built into the system.
文摘A global mean ocean model including atmospheric heating, heat capacity of the mixed layer ocean, and vertical thermal diffusivity in the lower ocean, proposed by Cess and Goldenberg (1981), is used in this paper to study the sensitivity of global warming to the vertical diffusivity. The results suggest that the behaviour of upper ocean temperature is mainly determined by the magnitude of upper layer diffusivity and an ocean with a larger diffusivity leads to a less increase of sea surface temperature and a longer time delay for the global warming induced by increasing CO2 than that with smaller one. The global warming relative to four scenarios of CO2 emission assumed by Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also estimated by using the model with two kinds of thermal diffusivities. The result shows that for various combinations of the CO2 emission scenarios and the diffusivities, the oceanic time delay to the global warming varies from 15 years to 70 years.
文摘The most appropriate heteroskedastic models for predicting volatility of daily stocks prices of 10 major Nigerian banks are proposed. The banks are Access, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust, Skye, Diamond, Fidelity, Sterling,?Union, ETI and Zenith banks;and these are examined from 2004 to 2014.?The models employed are Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH(1)), Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH(1, 1)),?Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic?(EGARCH(1, 1))?and Glosten, Jagananthan and Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic?(GJR-GARCH(1, 1)). The results show that all the?bank returns are highly leptokurtic, significantly skewed and thus non-normal across the four periods except for Fidelity bank during financial crises;findings similar to those of other global markets. Also noticed is the strong evidence for the presence of heteroscedasticity, and that volatility persistence during crisis?is?higher than before the crisis across the 10 banks, with that of UBA taking the lead, about 11 times higher during the crisis. The same with persistence?levels in volatility, which were relatively higher during financial crises across the ten banks compared to before the crises.?Findings further indicate that Asymmetric GARCH models outperformed the symmetric GARCH models, especially during the financial crises and post the crises. Thus with these findings, one could generally conclude that Nigerian banks’?returns are volatility persistent during and after the crises, and are characterized by leverage effects of negative and positive shocks during these periods.
文摘By using a nine-layer global spectral model involving fuller parameterization of physical processes, with a rhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15, experiments are performed in terms of two numerical schemes, one with long-term mean coverage of Arctic ice (Exp.1), the other without the ice (Exp.2). Results indicate that the Arctic region is a heat source in Exp.2 relative to the case in Exp.1. Under the influence of the polar heat source simulated, there still exist stationary wavetrains that produce WA-EUP and weak PNA patterns in Northern winter. That either the Arctic or the tropical heat source can cause identical climatic effects is due to the fact that the anomaly of the Arctic ice cover will directly induce a south-propagating wavetrain, and bring about the redistribution of the tropical heat source / sink. The redistribution is responsible for new wavetrains that will exert impact on the global climate. The simulation results bear out further that the polar region in Exp.2 as a heat source, can produce, by local forcing, a pair of positive and negative difference centers, which circle the Arctic moving eastwards. Observed in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics is a 40-50 day oscillation in relation to the moving pair, both having the same period.
文摘The geodetic and geophysical applications of Earth Gravity Field parameters computed from Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) are quite on the increase despite the inherent commission and omission errors of these models. In view of this, this study focuses on refining and quantifying terrain-induced effects on Bouguer gravity anomalies computed directly from a total of seven recent GGMs. In the study, the Residual Terrain Model (RTM) technique was used to estimate the residual terrain effects that were added to the GGM-computed Bouguer gravity anomalies at the sixty test points in Enugu State, Nigeria. The computed residual terrain effects range from -24.6 to 37.5 mgal while the percentage of the omission errors of the GGMs based on their Root-Mean-Square (RMS) differences ranges from 7.8% to 44.7%. It can be concluded that GGM-refined Bouguer gravity anomalies are better in accuracy than the unrefined GGM-computed Bouguer gravity anomalies and hence there is need for accurate height information in the development of GGMs. We, therefore, recommend that refined Bouguer gravity anomalies obtained from HUST-Grace2016s, EIGEN-6C4 and GECO that gave best improvement amongst the seven GGMs under consideration should be used to supplement the available terrestrial Bouguer anomalies for geodetic and geophysical applications within the study area.
