Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and ...Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).After feature selection via Elastic Net Regularization,we applied DLNMs to evaluate the lagged effects of risk factors.Disability was defined as the presence of any difficulties in basic activities of daily living(BADL).The cumulative relative risk(CRR)was calculated by summing the lag-specific risk estimates,representing the cumulative disability risk over the specified lag period.Effect modifications and sensitivity analyses were also performed.Results This study included a total of 2,318 participants.Early-phase lag factors,such as the difficulty in stooping(CRR=3.58;95%CI:2.31-5.55;P<0.001)and walking(CRR=2.77;95%CI:1.39-5.55;P<0.001),exerted the strongest effects immediately upon occurrence.Mid-phase lag factors,such as arthritis(CRR=1.51;95%CI:1.10-2.06;P=0.001),showed a resurgence in disability risk within 2-3 years.Late-phase lag factors,including depressive symptoms(CRR=2.38;95%CI:1.30-4.35;P<0.001)and elevated systolic blood pressure(CRR=1.64;95%CI:1.06-2.79;P=0.02),exhibited significant long-term cumulative risks.Conversely,grip strength(CRR=0.80;95%CI:0.54-0.95;P=0.02)and social participation(CRR=0.89;95%CI:0.73-0.99;P=0.04)were significant protective factors.Conclusions The findings underscore the importance of tailored interventions that account for various lag characteristics of different factors to effectively mitigate disability risk.Future studies should explore the underlying biological and sociological mechanisms of these lagged effects,identify intervention strategies that target risk factors with different lagged patterns,and evaluate their effectiveness.展开更多
Many experiments have supported the contact models,such as the GW and MB models,but the majority of previous validations have been performed under light loads,resulting in a linear relationship between normal force an...Many experiments have supported the contact models,such as the GW and MB models,but the majority of previous validations have been performed under light loads,resulting in a linear relationship between normal force and contact area.However,the real contact area fraction should never equal one;there must be a limit smaller than the apparent area,implying that the real contact area cannot increase linearly indefinitely.In this paper,the real contact area between two polymethylmethacrylate(PMMA)blocks under heavy load is measured using the total reflection method,and the contact area is analyzed using the image processing method.The results show that the real contact area increases with normal load linearly in light loads but non-linearly in heavy loads;the number of contact spots increases with load linearly in light loads but also non-linearly in heavy loads,synchronous with the change in the real contact area.The GW,MB,and Zhao,Maietta,and Chang(ZMC)models were used to predict the experiment results,but none of them predicted the non-linear stage.A revised GW model based on the bulk deformation hypothesis performs better in predicting the non-linear stage.The study’s findings can be applied to PMMA or other similar materials,and they can serve as a useful reference for future research on the contact mechanisms of other materials.展开更多
Fluid imbibition from hydraulic fractures into shale formations is mainly affected by a combination of capillary forces and viscous resistance,both of which are closely related to the pore geometry.This study establis...Fluid imbibition from hydraulic fractures into shale formations is mainly affected by a combination of capillary forces and viscous resistance,both of which are closely related to the pore geometry.This study established five self-imbibition models with idealized pore structures and conducted a comparative analysis of these models.These models include circular,square,and equilateral triangular capillaries;a triangular star-shaped cross-section formed by three tangent spherical particles;and a traditional porous medium representation method.All these models are derived based on Newton’s second law,where capillary pressure is described by the Young-Laplace equation and viscous resistance is characterized by the Hagen-Poiret equation and Darcy’s law.All derived models predict that the fluid imbibition distance is proportional to the square root of time,in accordance with the classical Lucas-Washburn law.However,different pore structures exhibit significantly different characteristic imbibition rates.Compared to the single pore model,the conventional Darcy’s law-based model for porous media predicts significantly lower imbibition rates,which is consistent with the relatively slower uptake rates in actual shale nanoscale pore networks.These findings emphasize the important role played by pore geometry in fluid imbibition dynamics and further point to the need for optimizing pore structure to extend fluid imbibition duration in shale reservoirs in practical operations.展开更多
The complex geometrical features of mechanical components significantly influence contact interactions and system dynamics.However,directly modeling contact forces on surfaces with intricate geometries presents consid...The complex geometrical features of mechanical components significantly influence contact interactions and system dynamics.However,directly modeling contact forces on surfaces with intricate geometries presents considerable challenges.This study focuses on the helically twisted wire rope-sheave contact and proposes a contact force model that incorporates complex geometric features through a parameter identification approach.The model's impact on contact forces and system dynamics is thoroughly investigated.Leveraging a point contact model and an elliptic integral approximation,a loss function is formulated using the finite element(FE)contact model results as the reference data.Geometric parameters are subsequently determined by optimizing this loss function via a genetic algorithm(GA).The findings reveal that the contact stiffness increases with the wire rope pitch length,the radius of principal curvature,and the elliptic eccentricity of the contact zone.The proposed contact force model is integrated into a rigid-flexible coupled dynamics model,developed by the absolute node coordinate formulation,to examine the effects of contact geometry on system dynamics.The results demonstrate that the variations in wire rope geometry alter the contact stiffness,which in turn affects dynamic rope tension through frictional energy dissipation.The enhanced model's predictions exhibit superior alignment with the experimental data,thereby validating the methodology.This approach provides new insights for deducing the contact geometry from kinetic parameters and monitoring the performance degradation of mechanical components.展开更多
The intracontinental subduction of a>200-km-long section of the Tajik-Tarim lithosphere beneath the Pamir Mountains is proposed to explain nearly 30 km of shortening in the Tajik fold-thrust belt and the Pamir upli...The intracontinental subduction of a>200-km-long section of the Tajik-Tarim lithosphere beneath the Pamir Mountains is proposed to explain nearly 30 km of shortening in the Tajik fold-thrust belt and the Pamir uplift.Seismic imaging revealed that the upper slab was scraped and that the lower slab had subducted to a depth of>150 km.These features constitute the tectonic complexity of the Pamirs,as well as the thermal subduction mechanism involved,which remains poorly understood.Hence,in this study,high-resolution three-dimensional(3D)kinematic modeling is applied to investigate the thermal structure and geometry of the subducting slab beneath the Pamirs.The modeled slab configuration reveals distinct along-strike variations,with a steeply dipping slab beneath the southern Pamirs,a more gently inclined slab beneath the northern Pamirs,and apparent upper slab termination at shallow depths beneath the Pamirs.The thermal field reveals a cold slab core after delamination,with temperatures ranging from 400℃to 800℃,enveloped by a hotter mantle reaching~1400℃.The occurrence of intermediate-depth earthquakes aligns primarily with colder slab regions,particularly near the slab tear-off below the southwestern Pamirs,indicating a strong correlation between slab temperature and seismicity.In contrast,the northern Pamirs exhibit reduced seismicity at depth,which is likely associated with thermal weakening and delamination.The central Pamirs show a significant thermal anomaly caused by a concave slab,where the coldest crust does not descend deeply,further suggesting crustal detachment or mechanical failure.The lateral asymmetry in slab temperature possibly explains the mechanism of lateral tearing and differential slab-mantle coupling.展开更多
Rice metallothionein-like protein (rgMT) shows characteristics of a three-section pattern composed of two highly conserved cysteine rich (CR) domains in the terminals and a spacer without cysteine (cys) residues in th...Rice metallothionein-like protein (rgMT) shows characteristics of a three-section pattern composed of two highly conserved cysteine rich (CR) domains in the terminals and a spacer without cysteine (cys) residues in the center of the molecule. In this paper, the two CR domains and the spacer region were modeled by the distance geometry and homology methods separately. For the CR domains, twenty random models were generated for each cys combination based on the constraint conditions of CXC (C represents cys, X represents any amino acid other than cys), and CXXC motifs and a metal-sulfur chelating cluster. Four models for the N-terminal and two for C-terminal CR domain containing metal chelating structures formed by different combinations of cys were selected from 900 possible conformations. The GOR method was used to predict the secondary structure of the spacer region and its model was built by the homology method. After three parts of the protein were modeled, they were connected to form a three-dimensional structure model of rgMT. The whole conformation showed that rgMT could form two independent metal-sulfur chelating structures connected by a spacer peptide, without a structural or energy barrier for them to form two independent metal-chelating clusters just as mammalian metallothionein (MT) proteins. As all plant metallothionein-like (MT-L) proteins have the same primary structural characteristic, two CR domains connected by a spacer region, and many have the same cys arrangement pattern as rgMT, the three-dimensional structure model of rgMT will provide an important reference for the structural study of other plant MT-L proteins.展开更多
The objective of this work was to develop a dynamic model for describing leaf curves and a the rice leaf （including sub-models for unexpanded leaf blades, expanded leaf blades, and dimensional （3D） dynamic visualiz...The objective of this work was to develop a dynamic model for describing leaf curves and a the rice leaf （including sub-models for unexpanded leaf blades, expanded leaf blades, and dimensional （3D） dynamic visualization of rice leaves by combining relevant models detailed spatial geometry model of leaf sheaths）, and to realize three- Based on the experimental data of different cultivars and nitrogen （N） rates, the time-course spatial data of leaf curves on the main stem were collected during the rice development stage, then a dynamic model of the rice leaf curve was developed using quantitative modeling technology. Further, a detailed 3D geometric model of rice leaves was built based on the spatial geometry technique and the non-uniform rational B-spline （NURBS） method. Validating the rice leaf curve model with independent field experiment data showed that the average distances between observed and predicted curves were less than 0.89 and 1.20 cm at the tilling and jointing stages, respectively. The proposed leaf curve model and leaf spatial geometry model together with the relevant previous models were used to simulate the spatial morphology and the color dynamics of a single leaf and of leaves on the rice plant after different growing days by 3D visualization technology. The validation of the leaf curve model and the results of leaf 3D visualization indicated that our leaf curve model and leaf spatial geometry model could efficiently predict the dynamics of rice leaf spatial morphology during leaf development stages. These results provide a technical support for related research on virtual rice.展开更多
In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative m...In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative method the data points on each section curve are calculated and the generalized waterlines and transverse section curves are determined.Then using the non-uniform B-spline expression,the control vertex net of the hull is calculated based on the generalized waterlines and section curves.A ship with tunnel stern was taken as test case.The numerical results prove that the proposed approach for geometry modeling of 3-D ship hull surface is accurate and effective.展开更多
This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field ...This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field maple,and hornbeam from forests in Northwest Iran.1920 trees were measured in 6 sampling plots(every sampling plot has 1 ha area).The fit of the best height–diameter models for each species were compared based on R2,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Akaike information criterion(AIC),standard error,and relative ranking performance criteria.In the final step,verification of results was performed by paired sample t-test to compare the observed height and estimated height.Results showed that among 23 height-diameter models,the best models were obtained from the top five ones including Modified-logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential.Comparison between the actual observed height and estimated height for Caucasian oak showed that Modified–Logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential performed better than the others,respectively(There were no statistically significant differences between observed heights and predicted height(p≥0.05)).Prodan,Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch evaluated field maple tree height correctly,and Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch had better fitness compared to the others for hornbeam,respectively.Although other models were introduced as appropriate criteria,they could not reliably predict the height of trees.Using the Rank analysis,the Modified-Logistic model for the Caucasian oak and Prodan model for field maple and hornbeam had the best performance.Finally,to complement the results of this study,it is suggested to assess how environmental factors such as elevation,climate parameters,forest protection policy and forest structure will modify height-diameter allometry models and will enhance the prediction accuracy of tree heights prediction in mixed stands.展开更多
In this paper, a novel real time non-linear model predictive controller(NMPC) for a multi-variable coupled tank system(CTS) is designed. CTSs are highly non-linear and can be found in many industrial process applicati...In this paper, a novel real time non-linear model predictive controller(NMPC) for a multi-variable coupled tank system(CTS) is designed. CTSs are highly non-linear and can be found in many industrial process applications. The involvement of multi-input multi-output(MIMO) system makes the design of an effective controller a challenging task. MIMO systems have inherent couplings,interactions in-between the process input-output variables and generally have an complex internal structure. The aim of this paper is to design, simulate, and implement a novel real time constrained NMPC for a multi-variable CTS with the aid of intelligent system techniques. There are two major formidable challenges hindering the success of the implementation of a NMPC strategy in the MIMO case. The first is the difficulty of obtaining a good non-linear model by training a non-convex complex network to avoid being trapped in a local minimum solution. The second is the online real time optimisation(RTO) of the manipulated variable at every sampling time.A novel wavelet neural network(WNN) with high predicting precision and time-frequency localisation characteristic was selected for an MIMO model and a fast stochastic wavelet gradient algorithm was used for initial training of the network. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm was used to obtain the optimised parameters of the WNN as well as the RTO during the NMPC strategy. The proposed strategy performed well in both simulation and real time on an MIMO CTS. The results indicated that WNN provided better trajectory regulation with less mean-squared-error and average control energy compared to an artificial neural network. It is also shown that the WNN is more robust during abnormal operating conditions.展开更多
The parameters that describe the complex degree of a certain casting are of some uncertainty. Therefore, a new method based on the fuzzy theory to classify the complex degree of castings has been presented in this pap...The parameters that describe the complex degree of a certain casting are of some uncertainty. Therefore, a new method based on the fuzzy theory to classify the complex degree of castings has been presented in this paper. The feasibility of fuzzy theory in describing the complex degree of castings has been discussed and the procedure of this method has been specified by analyzing the complex degrees of some typical castings. The element factors that influence the casting complexity, have been summarized, which include the wall-thickness and the number of transition surface, etc. The results show that it is reasonable and practicable to classify the complex degree of castings with the fuzzy theory.展开更多
A more general narrowband regular-shaped geometry-based statistical model(RS-GBSM) combined with the line of sight(LoS) and single bounce(SB) rays for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) ...A more general narrowband regular-shaped geometry-based statistical model(RS-GBSM) combined with the line of sight(LoS) and single bounce(SB) rays for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel is proposed in this paper. The channel characteristics, including space-time correlation function(STCF), Doppler power spectral density(DPSD), level crossing rate(LCR) and average fade duration(AFD), are derived based on the single sphere reference model for a non-isotropic environment. The corresponding sum-of-sinusoids(SoS) simulation models including both the deterministic model and statistical model with finite scatterers are also proposed for practicable implementation. The simulation results illustrate that the simulation models well reproduce the channel characteristics of the single sphere reference model with sufficient simulation scatterers. And the statistical model has a better approximation of the reference model in comparison with the deterministic one when the simulation trials of the stochastic model are sufficient. The effects of the parameters such as flight height, moving direction and Rice factor on the characteristics are also studied.展开更多
The present paper discusses the modeling of tool geometry effects on the friction stir aluminum welds using response surface methodology. The friction stir welding tools were designed with different shoulder and tool ...The present paper discusses the modeling of tool geometry effects on the friction stir aluminum welds using response surface methodology. The friction stir welding tools were designed with different shoulder and tool probe geometries based on a design matrix. The matrix for the tool designing was made for three types of tools, based on three types of probes, with three levels each for defining the shoulder surface type and probe profile geometries. Then, the effects of tool shoulder and probe geometries on friction stirred aluminum welds were experimentally investigated with respect to weld strength, weld cross section area, grain size of weld and grain size of thermo-mechanically affected zone. These effects were modeled using multiple and response surface regression analysis. The response surface regression modeling were found to be appropriate for defining the friction stir weldment characteristics.展开更多
In this study the copper and lead adsorption efficiency onto banana peels powder was investigated. The agroindustrial waste recovery represents one of the Circular Economy pillars. In the view of the synthesis of an e...In this study the copper and lead adsorption efficiency onto banana peels powder was investigated. The agroindustrial waste recovery represents one of the Circular Economy pillars. In the view of the synthesis of an environmentally friendly adsorbent material, the powder was used without any preliminary chemical or thermal activation, but only after simple washing, drying and grinding. The bio-adsorbent was characterized by the FTIR technique and tested in batch mode on synthetic aqueous solutions containing Pb and Cu in the range 10–90 mg·L^(-1). A selection of two(Langmuir, Freundlich) and three(Sips, Redlich–Peterson, Koble–Corrigan) parameter isotherm models was chosen to fit adsorption equilibrium data by non-linear regression procedure. The best fit isotherm model was selected relying on the error function with the lowest average percentage error(APE) value, among those characterized by the highest R^2 values. As expected, the three-parameter models are found to better represent both metals bio-adsorption, with APE and R^2 values always lower and higher, respectively, than the corresponding values obtained for the two-parameter models.展开更多
Laser welding (LW) becomes one of the most economical high quality joining processes. LW offers the advantage of very controlled heat input resulting in low distortion and the ability to weld heat sensitive components...Laser welding (LW) becomes one of the most economical high quality joining processes. LW offers the advantage of very controlled heat input resulting in low distortion and the ability to weld heat sensitive components. To exploit efficiently the benefits presented by LW, it is necessary to develop an integrated approach to identify and control the welding process variables in order to produce the desired weld characteristics without being forced to use the traditional and fastidious trial and error procedures. The paper presents a study of weld bead geometry characteristics prediction for laser overlap welding of low carbon galvanized steel using 3D numerical modelling and experimental validation. The temperature dependent material properties, metallurgical transformations and enthalpy method constitute the foundation of the proposed modelling approach. An adaptive 3D heat source is adopted to simulate both keyhole and conduction mode of the LW process. The simulations are performed using 3D finite element model on commercial software. The model is used to estimate the weld bead geometry characteristics for various LW parameters, such as laser power, welding speed and laser beam diameter. The calibration and validation of the 3D numerical model are based on experimental data achieved using a 3 kW Nd:Yag laser system, a structured experimental design and confirmed statistical analysis tools. The results reveal that the modelling approach can provide not only a consistent and accurate prediction of the weld characteristics under variable welding parameters and conditions but also a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of process parameters effects on the weld quality. The results show great concordance between predicted and measured values for weld bead geometry characteristics, such as depth of penetration, bead width at the top surface and bead width at the interface between sheets, with an average accuracy greater than 95%.展开更多
A mathematical modeling of tumor therapy with oncolytic viruses is discussed. The model consists of two coupled, deterministic differential equations allowing for cell reproduction and death, and cell infection. The m...A mathematical modeling of tumor therapy with oncolytic viruses is discussed. The model consists of two coupled, deterministic differential equations allowing for cell reproduction and death, and cell infection. The model is one of the conceptual mathematical models of tumor growth that treat a tumor as a dynamic society of interacting cells. In this paper, we obtain an approximate analytical expression of uninfected and infected cell population by solving the non-linear equations using Homotopy analysis method (HAM). Furthermore, the results are compared with the numerical simulation of the problem using Matlab program. The obtained results are valid for the whole solution domain.展开更多
The Cox proportional hazard model is being used extensively in oncology in studying the relationship between survival times and prognostic factors. The main question that needs to be addressed with respect to the appl...The Cox proportional hazard model is being used extensively in oncology in studying the relationship between survival times and prognostic factors. The main question that needs to be addressed with respect to the applicability of the Cox PH model is whether the proportional hazard assumption is met. Failure to justify the subject assumption will lead to misleading results. In addition, identifying the correct functional form of the continuous covariates is an important aspect in the development of a Cox proportional hazard model. The purpose of this study is to develop an extended Cox regression model for breast cancer survival data which takes non-proportional hazards and non-linear effects that exist in prognostic factors into consideration. Non-proportional hazards and non-linear effects are detected using methods based on residuals. An extended Cox model with non-linear effects and time-varying effects is proposed to adjust the Cox proportional hazard model. Age and tumor size were found to have nonlinear effects. Progesterone receptor assay status and age violated the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox model. Quadratic effect of age and progesterone receptor assay status had hazard ratio that changes with time. We have introduced a statistical model to overcome the presence of the proportional hazard assumption violation for the Cox proportional hazard model for breast cancer data. The proposed extended model considers the time varying nature of the hazard ratio and non-linear effects of the covariates. Our improved Cox model gives a better insight on the hazard rates associated with the breast cancer risk factors.展开更多
<span style="font-family:Verdana;">This study presents an intelligent approach for load frequency control (LFC) of small hydropower plants (SHPs). The approach which is based on fuzzy logic (FL), takes...<span style="font-family:Verdana;">This study presents an intelligent approach for load frequency control (LFC) of small hydropower plants (SHPs). The approach which is based on fuzzy logic (FL), takes into account the non-linearity of SHPs—something which is not possible using traditional controllers. Most intelligent methods use two-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">input fuzzy controllers, but because such controllers are expensive, there is </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">economic interest in the relatively cheaper single-input controllers. A n</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">on-</span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">linear control model based on one-input fuzzy logic PI (FLPI) controller was developed and applied to control the non-linear SHP. Using MATLAB/Si</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">- </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mulink SimScape, the SHP was simulated with linear and non-linear plant models. The performance of the FLPI controller was investigated and compared with that of the conventional PI/PID controller. Results show that the settling time for the FLPI controller is about 8 times shorter;while the overshoot is about 15 times smaller compared to the conventional PI/PID controller. Therefore, the FLPI controller performs better than the conventional PI/PID controller not only in meeting the LFC control objective but also in ensuring increased dynamic stability of SHPs.</span>展开更多
A statistical manifold of non-exponential type coming from a model for economics describing stock return process is constructed, with its geometric structure investigated and both Gaussian curvatures and mean curvatur...A statistical manifold of non-exponential type coming from a model for economics describing stock return process is constructed, with its geometric structure investigated and both Gaussian curvatures and mean curvatures of its curved exponential submanifolds deducted. A few graphs describing relevant scalar curvature, mean curvature and Gaussian curvature are also introduced.展开更多
This paper investigates the mathematic features of non-linear models and discusses the processing way of non-linear factors which contributes to the non-linearity of a non-linear model. On the basis of the error defin...This paper investigates the mathematic features of non-linear models and discusses the processing way of non-linear factors which contributes to the non-linearity of a non-linear model. On the basis of the error definition,this paper puts forward a new adjustment criterion, SGPE.Last,this paper investigates the solution of a non-linear regression model in the non-linear model space and makes the comparison between the estimated values in non-linear model space and those in linear model space.展开更多
基金supported by ScientificResearch Fund of National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China-Major Science and Technology Program for Medicine and Health in Zhejiang Province(WKJ-ZJ-2406).
文摘Objectives This study aimed to explore the lagged and cumulative effects of risk factors on disability in older adults using distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).Methods We utilized data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS).After feature selection via Elastic Net Regularization,we applied DLNMs to evaluate the lagged effects of risk factors.Disability was defined as the presence of any difficulties in basic activities of daily living(BADL).The cumulative relative risk(CRR)was calculated by summing the lag-specific risk estimates,representing the cumulative disability risk over the specified lag period.Effect modifications and sensitivity analyses were also performed.Results This study included a total of 2,318 participants.Early-phase lag factors,such as the difficulty in stooping(CRR=3.58;95%CI:2.31-5.55;P<0.001)and walking(CRR=2.77;95%CI:1.39-5.55;P<0.001),exerted the strongest effects immediately upon occurrence.Mid-phase lag factors,such as arthritis(CRR=1.51;95%CI:1.10-2.06;P=0.001),showed a resurgence in disability risk within 2-3 years.Late-phase lag factors,including depressive symptoms(CRR=2.38;95%CI:1.30-4.35;P<0.001)and elevated systolic blood pressure(CRR=1.64;95%CI:1.06-2.79;P=0.02),exhibited significant long-term cumulative risks.Conversely,grip strength(CRR=0.80;95%CI:0.54-0.95;P=0.02)and social participation(CRR=0.89;95%CI:0.73-0.99;P=0.04)were significant protective factors.Conclusions The findings underscore the importance of tailored interventions that account for various lag characteristics of different factors to effectively mitigate disability risk.Future studies should explore the underlying biological and sociological mechanisms of these lagged effects,identify intervention strategies that target risk factors with different lagged patterns,and evaluate their effectiveness.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11872033)Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.3172017)。
文摘Many experiments have supported the contact models,such as the GW and MB models,but the majority of previous validations have been performed under light loads,resulting in a linear relationship between normal force and contact area.However,the real contact area fraction should never equal one;there must be a limit smaller than the apparent area,implying that the real contact area cannot increase linearly indefinitely.In this paper,the real contact area between two polymethylmethacrylate(PMMA)blocks under heavy load is measured using the total reflection method,and the contact area is analyzed using the image processing method.The results show that the real contact area increases with normal load linearly in light loads but non-linearly in heavy loads;the number of contact spots increases with load linearly in light loads but also non-linearly in heavy loads,synchronous with the change in the real contact area.The GW,MB,and Zhao,Maietta,and Chang(ZMC)models were used to predict the experiment results,but none of them predicted the non-linear stage.A revised GW model based on the bulk deformation hypothesis performs better in predicting the non-linear stage.The study’s findings can be applied to PMMA or other similar materials,and they can serve as a useful reference for future research on the contact mechanisms of other materials.
文摘Fluid imbibition from hydraulic fractures into shale formations is mainly affected by a combination of capillary forces and viscous resistance,both of which are closely related to the pore geometry.This study established five self-imbibition models with idealized pore structures and conducted a comparative analysis of these models.These models include circular,square,and equilateral triangular capillaries;a triangular star-shaped cross-section formed by three tangent spherical particles;and a traditional porous medium representation method.All these models are derived based on Newton’s second law,where capillary pressure is described by the Young-Laplace equation and viscous resistance is characterized by the Hagen-Poiret equation and Darcy’s law.All derived models predict that the fluid imbibition distance is proportional to the square root of time,in accordance with the classical Lucas-Washburn law.However,different pore structures exhibit significantly different characteristic imbibition rates.Compared to the single pore model,the conventional Darcy’s law-based model for porous media predicts significantly lower imbibition rates,which is consistent with the relatively slower uptake rates in actual shale nanoscale pore networks.These findings emphasize the important role played by pore geometry in fluid imbibition dynamics and further point to the need for optimizing pore structure to extend fluid imbibition duration in shale reservoirs in practical operations.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFC3010400)。
文摘The complex geometrical features of mechanical components significantly influence contact interactions and system dynamics.However,directly modeling contact forces on surfaces with intricate geometries presents considerable challenges.This study focuses on the helically twisted wire rope-sheave contact and proposes a contact force model that incorporates complex geometric features through a parameter identification approach.The model's impact on contact forces and system dynamics is thoroughly investigated.Leveraging a point contact model and an elliptic integral approximation,a loss function is formulated using the finite element(FE)contact model results as the reference data.Geometric parameters are subsequently determined by optimizing this loss function via a genetic algorithm(GA).The findings reveal that the contact stiffness increases with the wire rope pitch length,the radius of principal curvature,and the elliptic eccentricity of the contact zone.The proposed contact force model is integrated into a rigid-flexible coupled dynamics model,developed by the absolute node coordinate formulation,to examine the effects of contact geometry on system dynamics.The results demonstrate that the variations in wire rope geometry alter the contact stiffness,which in turn affects dynamic rope tension through frictional energy dissipation.The enhanced model's predictions exhibit superior alignment with the experimental data,thereby validating the methodology.This approach provides new insights for deducing the contact geometry from kinetic parameters and monitoring the performance degradation of mechanical components.
基金the Chinese Academy of Sciences Pioneer Hundred Talents Program and the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0708)supported by a MEXT(Ministry of Education,Culture,Sports,Science and Technology)KAKENHI(Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research)grant(Grant No.21H05203)Kobe University Strategic International Collaborative Research Grant(Type B Fostering Joint Research).
文摘The intracontinental subduction of a>200-km-long section of the Tajik-Tarim lithosphere beneath the Pamir Mountains is proposed to explain nearly 30 km of shortening in the Tajik fold-thrust belt and the Pamir uplift.Seismic imaging revealed that the upper slab was scraped and that the lower slab had subducted to a depth of>150 km.These features constitute the tectonic complexity of the Pamirs,as well as the thermal subduction mechanism involved,which remains poorly understood.Hence,in this study,high-resolution three-dimensional(3D)kinematic modeling is applied to investigate the thermal structure and geometry of the subducting slab beneath the Pamirs.The modeled slab configuration reveals distinct along-strike variations,with a steeply dipping slab beneath the southern Pamirs,a more gently inclined slab beneath the northern Pamirs,and apparent upper slab termination at shallow depths beneath the Pamirs.The thermal field reveals a cold slab core after delamination,with temperatures ranging from 400℃to 800℃,enveloped by a hotter mantle reaching~1400℃.The occurrence of intermediate-depth earthquakes aligns primarily with colder slab regions,particularly near the slab tear-off below the southwestern Pamirs,indicating a strong correlation between slab temperature and seismicity.In contrast,the northern Pamirs exhibit reduced seismicity at depth,which is likely associated with thermal weakening and delamination.The central Pamirs show a significant thermal anomaly caused by a concave slab,where the coldest crust does not descend deeply,further suggesting crustal detachment or mechanical failure.The lateral asymmetry in slab temperature possibly explains the mechanism of lateral tearing and differential slab-mantle coupling.
文摘Rice metallothionein-like protein (rgMT) shows characteristics of a three-section pattern composed of two highly conserved cysteine rich (CR) domains in the terminals and a spacer without cysteine (cys) residues in the center of the molecule. In this paper, the two CR domains and the spacer region were modeled by the distance geometry and homology methods separately. For the CR domains, twenty random models were generated for each cys combination based on the constraint conditions of CXC (C represents cys, X represents any amino acid other than cys), and CXXC motifs and a metal-sulfur chelating cluster. Four models for the N-terminal and two for C-terminal CR domain containing metal chelating structures formed by different combinations of cys were selected from 900 possible conformations. The GOR method was used to predict the secondary structure of the spacer region and its model was built by the homology method. After three parts of the protein were modeled, they were connected to form a three-dimensional structure model of rgMT. The whole conformation showed that rgMT could form two independent metal-sulfur chelating structures connected by a spacer peptide, without a structural or energy barrier for them to form two independent metal-chelating clusters just as mammalian metallothionein (MT) proteins. As all plant metallothionein-like (MT-L) proteins have the same primary structural characteristic, two CR domains connected by a spacer region, and many have the same cys arrangement pattern as rgMT, the three-dimensional structure model of rgMT will provide an important reference for the structural study of other plant MT-L proteins.
基金supported by the National High-Tech R&D Program of China (2013AA100404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31201130,61471269,31571566)+3 种基金the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD),Chinathe Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province,China (BS2015DX001)the Science and Technology Development Project of Weifang,China (2016GX019)the Doctoral Foundation of Weifang University,China
文摘The objective of this work was to develop a dynamic model for describing leaf curves and a the rice leaf （including sub-models for unexpanded leaf blades, expanded leaf blades, and dimensional （3D） dynamic visualization of rice leaves by combining relevant models detailed spatial geometry model of leaf sheaths）, and to realize three- Based on the experimental data of different cultivars and nitrogen （N） rates, the time-course spatial data of leaf curves on the main stem were collected during the rice development stage, then a dynamic model of the rice leaf curve was developed using quantitative modeling technology. Further, a detailed 3D geometric model of rice leaves was built based on the spatial geometry technique and the non-uniform rational B-spline （NURBS） method. Validating the rice leaf curve model with independent field experiment data showed that the average distances between observed and predicted curves were less than 0.89 and 1.20 cm at the tilling and jointing stages, respectively. The proposed leaf curve model and leaf spatial geometry model together with the relevant previous models were used to simulate the spatial morphology and the color dynamics of a single leaf and of leaves on the rice plant after different growing days by 3D visualization technology. The validation of the leaf curve model and the results of leaf 3D visualization indicated that our leaf curve model and leaf spatial geometry model could efficiently predict the dynamics of rice leaf spatial morphology during leaf development stages. These results provide a technical support for related research on virtual rice.
基金The Special Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(No.20050248037)The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10572094)
文摘In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative method the data points on each section curve are calculated and the generalized waterlines and transverse section curves are determined.Then using the non-uniform B-spline expression,the control vertex net of the hull is calculated based on the generalized waterlines and section curves.A ship with tunnel stern was taken as test case.The numerical results prove that the proposed approach for geometry modeling of 3-D ship hull surface is accurate and effective.
文摘This study evaluated the total height of trees based on diameter at breast height by using 23 widely used height-diameter non-linear regression models for mixed-species forest stands consisting of Caucasian oak,field maple,and hornbeam from forests in Northwest Iran.1920 trees were measured in 6 sampling plots(every sampling plot has 1 ha area).The fit of the best height–diameter models for each species were compared based on R2,Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Akaike information criterion(AIC),standard error,and relative ranking performance criteria.In the final step,verification of results was performed by paired sample t-test to compare the observed height and estimated height.Results showed that among 23 height-diameter models,the best models were obtained from the top five ones including Modified-logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential.Comparison between the actual observed height and estimated height for Caucasian oak showed that Modified–Logistic,Prodan,Sibbesen,Burkhart,and Exponential performed better than the others,respectively(There were no statistically significant differences between observed heights and predicted height(p≥0.05)).Prodan,Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch evaluated field maple tree height correctly,and Modified-Logistic,Burkhart,and Loetch had better fitness compared to the others for hornbeam,respectively.Although other models were introduced as appropriate criteria,they could not reliably predict the height of trees.Using the Rank analysis,the Modified-Logistic model for the Caucasian oak and Prodan model for field maple and hornbeam had the best performance.Finally,to complement the results of this study,it is suggested to assess how environmental factors such as elevation,climate parameters,forest protection policy and forest structure will modify height-diameter allometry models and will enhance the prediction accuracy of tree heights prediction in mixed stands.
基金supported by Petroleum Training Development Fund,Nigeria
文摘In this paper, a novel real time non-linear model predictive controller(NMPC) for a multi-variable coupled tank system(CTS) is designed. CTSs are highly non-linear and can be found in many industrial process applications. The involvement of multi-input multi-output(MIMO) system makes the design of an effective controller a challenging task. MIMO systems have inherent couplings,interactions in-between the process input-output variables and generally have an complex internal structure. The aim of this paper is to design, simulate, and implement a novel real time constrained NMPC for a multi-variable CTS with the aid of intelligent system techniques. There are two major formidable challenges hindering the success of the implementation of a NMPC strategy in the MIMO case. The first is the difficulty of obtaining a good non-linear model by training a non-convex complex network to avoid being trapped in a local minimum solution. The second is the online real time optimisation(RTO) of the manipulated variable at every sampling time.A novel wavelet neural network(WNN) with high predicting precision and time-frequency localisation characteristic was selected for an MIMO model and a fast stochastic wavelet gradient algorithm was used for initial training of the network. Furthermore, a genetic algorithm was used to obtain the optimised parameters of the WNN as well as the RTO during the NMPC strategy. The proposed strategy performed well in both simulation and real time on an MIMO CTS. The results indicated that WNN provided better trajectory regulation with less mean-squared-error and average control energy compared to an artificial neural network. It is also shown that the WNN is more robust during abnormal operating conditions.
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50775050)the State Key Laboratory of Solidification Processing in NWPU(Grant No.200702)
文摘The parameters that describe the complex degree of a certain casting are of some uncertainty. Therefore, a new method based on the fuzzy theory to classify the complex degree of castings has been presented in this paper. The feasibility of fuzzy theory in describing the complex degree of castings has been discussed and the procedure of this method has been specified by analyzing the complex degrees of some typical castings. The element factors that influence the casting complexity, have been summarized, which include the wall-thickness and the number of transition surface, etc. The results show that it is reasonable and practicable to classify the complex degree of castings with the fuzzy theory.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 61622101 and Grant 61571020National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant 2018ZX03001031
文摘A more general narrowband regular-shaped geometry-based statistical model(RS-GBSM) combined with the line of sight(LoS) and single bounce(SB) rays for unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO) channel is proposed in this paper. The channel characteristics, including space-time correlation function(STCF), Doppler power spectral density(DPSD), level crossing rate(LCR) and average fade duration(AFD), are derived based on the single sphere reference model for a non-isotropic environment. The corresponding sum-of-sinusoids(SoS) simulation models including both the deterministic model and statistical model with finite scatterers are also proposed for practicable implementation. The simulation results illustrate that the simulation models well reproduce the channel characteristics of the single sphere reference model with sufficient simulation scatterers. And the statistical model has a better approximation of the reference model in comparison with the deterministic one when the simulation trials of the stochastic model are sufficient. The effects of the parameters such as flight height, moving direction and Rice factor on the characteristics are also studied.
基金supported by the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research(DSIR),India
文摘The present paper discusses the modeling of tool geometry effects on the friction stir aluminum welds using response surface methodology. The friction stir welding tools were designed with different shoulder and tool probe geometries based on a design matrix. The matrix for the tool designing was made for three types of tools, based on three types of probes, with three levels each for defining the shoulder surface type and probe profile geometries. Then, the effects of tool shoulder and probe geometries on friction stirred aluminum welds were experimentally investigated with respect to weld strength, weld cross section area, grain size of weld and grain size of thermo-mechanically affected zone. These effects were modeled using multiple and response surface regression analysis. The response surface regression modeling were found to be appropriate for defining the friction stir weldment characteristics.
基金the Dept. of Chemical Engineering Materials Environment of Sapienza University of Rome
文摘In this study the copper and lead adsorption efficiency onto banana peels powder was investigated. The agroindustrial waste recovery represents one of the Circular Economy pillars. In the view of the synthesis of an environmentally friendly adsorbent material, the powder was used without any preliminary chemical or thermal activation, but only after simple washing, drying and grinding. The bio-adsorbent was characterized by the FTIR technique and tested in batch mode on synthetic aqueous solutions containing Pb and Cu in the range 10–90 mg·L^(-1). A selection of two(Langmuir, Freundlich) and three(Sips, Redlich–Peterson, Koble–Corrigan) parameter isotherm models was chosen to fit adsorption equilibrium data by non-linear regression procedure. The best fit isotherm model was selected relying on the error function with the lowest average percentage error(APE) value, among those characterized by the highest R^2 values. As expected, the three-parameter models are found to better represent both metals bio-adsorption, with APE and R^2 values always lower and higher, respectively, than the corresponding values obtained for the two-parameter models.
文摘Laser welding (LW) becomes one of the most economical high quality joining processes. LW offers the advantage of very controlled heat input resulting in low distortion and the ability to weld heat sensitive components. To exploit efficiently the benefits presented by LW, it is necessary to develop an integrated approach to identify and control the welding process variables in order to produce the desired weld characteristics without being forced to use the traditional and fastidious trial and error procedures. The paper presents a study of weld bead geometry characteristics prediction for laser overlap welding of low carbon galvanized steel using 3D numerical modelling and experimental validation. The temperature dependent material properties, metallurgical transformations and enthalpy method constitute the foundation of the proposed modelling approach. An adaptive 3D heat source is adopted to simulate both keyhole and conduction mode of the LW process. The simulations are performed using 3D finite element model on commercial software. The model is used to estimate the weld bead geometry characteristics for various LW parameters, such as laser power, welding speed and laser beam diameter. The calibration and validation of the 3D numerical model are based on experimental data achieved using a 3 kW Nd:Yag laser system, a structured experimental design and confirmed statistical analysis tools. The results reveal that the modelling approach can provide not only a consistent and accurate prediction of the weld characteristics under variable welding parameters and conditions but also a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of process parameters effects on the weld quality. The results show great concordance between predicted and measured values for weld bead geometry characteristics, such as depth of penetration, bead width at the top surface and bead width at the interface between sheets, with an average accuracy greater than 95%.
文摘A mathematical modeling of tumor therapy with oncolytic viruses is discussed. The model consists of two coupled, deterministic differential equations allowing for cell reproduction and death, and cell infection. The model is one of the conceptual mathematical models of tumor growth that treat a tumor as a dynamic society of interacting cells. In this paper, we obtain an approximate analytical expression of uninfected and infected cell population by solving the non-linear equations using Homotopy analysis method (HAM). Furthermore, the results are compared with the numerical simulation of the problem using Matlab program. The obtained results are valid for the whole solution domain.
文摘The Cox proportional hazard model is being used extensively in oncology in studying the relationship between survival times and prognostic factors. The main question that needs to be addressed with respect to the applicability of the Cox PH model is whether the proportional hazard assumption is met. Failure to justify the subject assumption will lead to misleading results. In addition, identifying the correct functional form of the continuous covariates is an important aspect in the development of a Cox proportional hazard model. The purpose of this study is to develop an extended Cox regression model for breast cancer survival data which takes non-proportional hazards and non-linear effects that exist in prognostic factors into consideration. Non-proportional hazards and non-linear effects are detected using methods based on residuals. An extended Cox model with non-linear effects and time-varying effects is proposed to adjust the Cox proportional hazard model. Age and tumor size were found to have nonlinear effects. Progesterone receptor assay status and age violated the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox model. Quadratic effect of age and progesterone receptor assay status had hazard ratio that changes with time. We have introduced a statistical model to overcome the presence of the proportional hazard assumption violation for the Cox proportional hazard model for breast cancer data. The proposed extended model considers the time varying nature of the hazard ratio and non-linear effects of the covariates. Our improved Cox model gives a better insight on the hazard rates associated with the breast cancer risk factors.
文摘<span style="font-family:Verdana;">This study presents an intelligent approach for load frequency control (LFC) of small hydropower plants (SHPs). The approach which is based on fuzzy logic (FL), takes into account the non-linearity of SHPs—something which is not possible using traditional controllers. Most intelligent methods use two-</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">input fuzzy controllers, but because such controllers are expensive, there is </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">economic interest in the relatively cheaper single-input controllers. A n</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">on-</span></span><span style="font-family:;" "=""> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">linear control model based on one-input fuzzy logic PI (FLPI) controller was developed and applied to control the non-linear SHP. Using MATLAB/Si</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">- </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mulink SimScape, the SHP was simulated with linear and non-linear plant models. The performance of the FLPI controller was investigated and compared with that of the conventional PI/PID controller. Results show that the settling time for the FLPI controller is about 8 times shorter;while the overshoot is about 15 times smaller compared to the conventional PI/PID controller. Therefore, the FLPI controller performs better than the conventional PI/PID controller not only in meeting the LFC control objective but also in ensuring increased dynamic stability of SHPs.</span>
基金Sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(10871218)
文摘A statistical manifold of non-exponential type coming from a model for economics describing stock return process is constructed, with its geometric structure investigated and both Gaussian curvatures and mean curvatures of its curved exponential submanifolds deducted. A few graphs describing relevant scalar curvature, mean curvature and Gaussian curvature are also introduced.
文摘This paper investigates the mathematic features of non-linear models and discusses the processing way of non-linear factors which contributes to the non-linearity of a non-linear model. On the basis of the error definition,this paper puts forward a new adjustment criterion, SGPE.Last,this paper investigates the solution of a non-linear regression model in the non-linear model space and makes the comparison between the estimated values in non-linear model space and those in linear model space.
