In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using concept...In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.展开更多
The furnace process is very important in boiler operation,and furnace pressure works as an important parameter in furnace process.Therefore,there is a need to analyze and monitor the pressure signal in furnace.However...The furnace process is very important in boiler operation,and furnace pressure works as an important parameter in furnace process.Therefore,there is a need to analyze and monitor the pressure signal in furnace.However,little work has been conducted on the relationship with the pressure sequence and boiler’s load under different working conditions.Since pressure sequence contains complex information,it demands feature extraction methods from multi-aspect consideration.In this paper,fuzzy c-means analysis method based on weighted validity index(VFCM)has been proposed for the working condition classification based on feature extraction.To deal with the fluctuating and time-varying pressure sequence,feature extraction is taken as nonlinear analysis based on entropy theory.Three kinds of entropy values,extracted from pressure sequence in time-frequency domain,are studied as the clustering objects for work condition classification.Weighted validity index,taking the close and separation degree into consideration,is calculated on the base of Silhouette index and Krzanowski-Lai index to obtain the optimal clustering number.Each time FCM runs,the weighted validity index evaluates the clustering result and the optimal clustering number will be obtained when it reaches the maximum value.Four datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository are presented to certify the effectiveness in VFCM.Pressure sequences got from a 300 MW boiler are then taken for case study.The result of the pressure sequence case study with an error rate of 0.5332%shows the valuable information on boiler’s load and pressure sequence in furnace.The relationship between boiler’s load and entropy values extracted from pressure sequence is proposed.Moreover,the method can be considered to be a reference method for data mining in other fluctuating and time-varying sequences.展开更多
基金Project(08SK1002) supported by the Major Project of Science and Technology Department of Hunan Province,China
文摘In order to enhance forecasting precision of problems about nonlinear time series in a complex industry system,a new nonlinear fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting model was established by using conceptions of the relative error,the change tendency of the forecasted object,gray basic weight and adaptive control coefficient on the basis of the method of fuzzy variable weight.Based on Visual Basic 6.0 platform,a fuzzy adaptive variable weight combined forecasting and management system was developed.The application results reveal that the forecasting precisions from the new nonlinear combined forecasting model are higher than those of other single combined forecasting models and the combined forecasting and management system is very powerful tool for the required decision in complex industry system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51176030)Jiangsu Science and Technology Department(Grant No.BY2015070-17)
文摘The furnace process is very important in boiler operation,and furnace pressure works as an important parameter in furnace process.Therefore,there is a need to analyze and monitor the pressure signal in furnace.However,little work has been conducted on the relationship with the pressure sequence and boiler’s load under different working conditions.Since pressure sequence contains complex information,it demands feature extraction methods from multi-aspect consideration.In this paper,fuzzy c-means analysis method based on weighted validity index(VFCM)has been proposed for the working condition classification based on feature extraction.To deal with the fluctuating and time-varying pressure sequence,feature extraction is taken as nonlinear analysis based on entropy theory.Three kinds of entropy values,extracted from pressure sequence in time-frequency domain,are studied as the clustering objects for work condition classification.Weighted validity index,taking the close and separation degree into consideration,is calculated on the base of Silhouette index and Krzanowski-Lai index to obtain the optimal clustering number.Each time FCM runs,the weighted validity index evaluates the clustering result and the optimal clustering number will be obtained when it reaches the maximum value.Four datasets from UCI Machine Learning Repository are presented to certify the effectiveness in VFCM.Pressure sequences got from a 300 MW boiler are then taken for case study.The result of the pressure sequence case study with an error rate of 0.5332%shows the valuable information on boiler’s load and pressure sequence in furnace.The relationship between boiler’s load and entropy values extracted from pressure sequence is proposed.Moreover,the method can be considered to be a reference method for data mining in other fluctuating and time-varying sequences.
