To solve the medium and long term power load forecasting problem,the combination forecasting method is further expanded and a weighted combination forecasting model for power load is put forward.This model is divided ...To solve the medium and long term power load forecasting problem,the combination forecasting method is further expanded and a weighted combination forecasting model for power load is put forward.This model is divided into two stages which are forecasting model selection and weighted combination forecasting.Based on Markov chain conversion and cloud model,the forecasting model selection is implanted and several outstanding models are selected for the combination forecasting.For the weighted combination forecasting,a fuzzy scale joint evaluation method is proposed to determine the weight of selected forecasting model.The percentage error and mean absolute percentage error of weighted combination forecasting result of the power consumption in a certain area of China are 0.7439%and 0.3198%,respectively,while the maximum values of these two indexes of single forecasting models are 5.2278%and 1.9497%.It shows that the forecasting indexes of proposed model are improved significantly compared with the single forecasting models.展开更多
In this paper, we present a fuzzy linguistic scale, which is characterized by triangular fuzzy numbers on [1/9, 9], for the comparison between two alternatives, and introduce a possibility degree formula for comparing...In this paper, we present a fuzzy linguistic scale, which is characterized by triangular fuzzy numbers on [1/9, 9], for the comparison between two alternatives, and introduce a possibility degree formula for comparing triangular fuzzy numbers. We utilize the fuzzy linguistic scale to construct a linguistic preference matrix, and propose a fuzzy induced ordered weighted geometric averaging (FIOWGA) operator to aggregate linguistic preference information. A method based on the fuzzy linguistic scale and FIOWGA operator for decision-making problems is presented. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed method and to demonstrate its feasibility and effectiveness.展开更多
Turbulent motion could be regarded as the superposition of fluctuations with different scales. It's of great theoretical and practical importance to determine the classification of turbulent scales quantitatively ...Turbulent motion could be regarded as the superposition of fluctuations with different scales. It's of great theoretical and practical importance to determine the classification of turbulent scales quantitatively to the better description of vortex motions with different scales, and to the research of the interaction among different sclaes of vortex and the construction of better turbulent models. The mathematical method, which carries out the classification on a certain requirement, is called cluster analysis. In this paper, fuzzy cluster analysis method is used to study the classification of turbulent scales quantitatively in smooth and rough wall boundary conditions. Furthermore, the properties and interactions among all kinds of flow structures are also studied. The results are helpful to gain some insight into the properties and interactions of all kinds of turbulent scales in wall turbulent shear flow.展开更多
文摘To solve the medium and long term power load forecasting problem,the combination forecasting method is further expanded and a weighted combination forecasting model for power load is put forward.This model is divided into two stages which are forecasting model selection and weighted combination forecasting.Based on Markov chain conversion and cloud model,the forecasting model selection is implanted and several outstanding models are selected for the combination forecasting.For the weighted combination forecasting,a fuzzy scale joint evaluation method is proposed to determine the weight of selected forecasting model.The percentage error and mean absolute percentage error of weighted combination forecasting result of the power consumption in a certain area of China are 0.7439%and 0.3198%,respectively,while the maximum values of these two indexes of single forecasting models are 5.2278%and 1.9497%.It shows that the forecasting indexes of proposed model are improved significantly compared with the single forecasting models.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(79970093) the Ph.D. Dissertation Foundation of Southeast University- NARI-Relays Electric Co. Ltd.
文摘In this paper, we present a fuzzy linguistic scale, which is characterized by triangular fuzzy numbers on [1/9, 9], for the comparison between two alternatives, and introduce a possibility degree formula for comparing triangular fuzzy numbers. We utilize the fuzzy linguistic scale to construct a linguistic preference matrix, and propose a fuzzy induced ordered weighted geometric averaging (FIOWGA) operator to aggregate linguistic preference information. A method based on the fuzzy linguistic scale and FIOWGA operator for decision-making problems is presented. Finally, an illustrative example is given to verify the developed method and to demonstrate its feasibility and effectiveness.
文摘Turbulent motion could be regarded as the superposition of fluctuations with different scales. It's of great theoretical and practical importance to determine the classification of turbulent scales quantitatively to the better description of vortex motions with different scales, and to the research of the interaction among different sclaes of vortex and the construction of better turbulent models. The mathematical method, which carries out the classification on a certain requirement, is called cluster analysis. In this paper, fuzzy cluster analysis method is used to study the classification of turbulent scales quantitatively in smooth and rough wall boundary conditions. Furthermore, the properties and interactions among all kinds of flow structures are also studied. The results are helpful to gain some insight into the properties and interactions of all kinds of turbulent scales in wall turbulent shear flow.
