Water scarcity and environment deterioration have become main constraints to sustainable economic and social development.Scientifically assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity(WRCC)is essential for the optimal all...Water scarcity and environment deterioration have become main constraints to sustainable economic and social development.Scientifically assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity(WRCC)is essential for the optimal allocation of regional water resources.The hilly area at the northern foot of Yanshan Mountains is a key water conservation zone and an important water source for Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Grasping the current status and temporal trends of water quality and WRCC in representative small watersheds within this region is crucial for supporting rational water resources allocation and environment protection efforts.This study focuses on Pingquan City,a typical watershed in northern Hebei Province.Firstly,evaluation index systems for surface water quality,groundwater quality and WRCC were estab-lished based on the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)framework.Then,comprehensive evaluations of water quality and WRCC at the sub-watershed scale were conducted using the Varying Fuzzy Pattern Recogni-tion(VFPR)model.Finally,the rationality of the evaluation results was verified,and future scenarios were projected.Results showed that:(1)The average comprehensive evaluation scores for surface water and groundwater quality in the sub-watersheds were 1.44 and 1.46,respectively,indicating that both met the national Class II water quality standard and reflected a high-quality water environment.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the region's WRCC steadily improved,with scores rising from 2.99 to 2.83 and an average of 2.90,suggesting effective water resources management in Pingquan City.(3)According to scenario-based predic-tion,WRCC may slightly decline between 2025 and 2030,reaching 2.92 and 2.94,respectively,relative to 2020 levels.Therefore,future efforts should focus on strengthening scientific management and promoting the efficient use of water resources.Proactive measures are necessary to mitigate emerging contradiction and ensure the long-term stability and sustainability of the water resources system in the region.The evalua-tion system and spatiotemporal evolution patterns proposed in this study can provide a scientific basis for refined water resource management and ecological conservation in similar hilly areas.展开更多
基金financially supported by China Geological Survey Project(No.DD20220954)Open Funding Project of the Key Laboratory of Groundwater Sciences and Engineering,Ministry of Natural Resources(No.SK202301-4)+2 种基金Science and Technology Innovation Foundation of Comprehensive Survey&Command Center for Natural Resources(No.KC20240003)Yanzhao Shanshui Science and Innovation Fund of Langfang Integrated Natural Resources Survey Center,China Geological Survey(No.YZSSJJ202401-001)Open Foundation of the Key Laboratory of Coupling Process and Effect of Natural Resources Elements(No.2022KFKTC009).
文摘Water scarcity and environment deterioration have become main constraints to sustainable economic and social development.Scientifically assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity(WRCC)is essential for the optimal allocation of regional water resources.The hilly area at the northern foot of Yanshan Mountains is a key water conservation zone and an important water source for Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Grasping the current status and temporal trends of water quality and WRCC in representative small watersheds within this region is crucial for supporting rational water resources allocation and environment protection efforts.This study focuses on Pingquan City,a typical watershed in northern Hebei Province.Firstly,evaluation index systems for surface water quality,groundwater quality and WRCC were estab-lished based on the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)framework.Then,comprehensive evaluations of water quality and WRCC at the sub-watershed scale were conducted using the Varying Fuzzy Pattern Recogni-tion(VFPR)model.Finally,the rationality of the evaluation results was verified,and future scenarios were projected.Results showed that:(1)The average comprehensive evaluation scores for surface water and groundwater quality in the sub-watersheds were 1.44 and 1.46,respectively,indicating that both met the national Class II water quality standard and reflected a high-quality water environment.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the region's WRCC steadily improved,with scores rising from 2.99 to 2.83 and an average of 2.90,suggesting effective water resources management in Pingquan City.(3)According to scenario-based predic-tion,WRCC may slightly decline between 2025 and 2030,reaching 2.92 and 2.94,respectively,relative to 2020 levels.Therefore,future efforts should focus on strengthening scientific management and promoting the efficient use of water resources.Proactive measures are necessary to mitigate emerging contradiction and ensure the long-term stability and sustainability of the water resources system in the region.The evalua-tion system and spatiotemporal evolution patterns proposed in this study can provide a scientific basis for refined water resource management and ecological conservation in similar hilly areas.
