Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction.This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date(when power is consumed)and w...Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction.This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date(when power is consumed)and when measurement values are obtained.To this end,this letter proposes an online learning-based probabilistic load forecasting method considering the impact of the data gap.Specifically,an adaptive ensemble backpropagation-enabled online quantile regression algorithm is developed to optimize the parameters of the attention network recursively using the newly obtained load observations.To further improve the reliability and sharpness of prediction intervals under significant data gaps,we introduce an online interval calibration technique.The proposed online learning method allows us to adaptively capture the dynamic changes in load patterns and alleviate the information lags caused by data gaps.Comparative tests utilizing real-world datasets reveal the superiority of the proposed method.展开更多
This study focuses on an extreme rainfall event in East China during the mei-yu season,in which the capital city(Nanjing)of Jiangsu Province experienced a maximum 14-h rainfall accumulation of 209.6 mm and a peak hour...This study focuses on an extreme rainfall event in East China during the mei-yu season,in which the capital city(Nanjing)of Jiangsu Province experienced a maximum 14-h rainfall accumulation of 209.6 mm and a peak hourly rainfall of 118.8 mm.The performance of two sets of convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs),each with 30 members and a 3-km horizontal grid spacing,is evaluated.The CEFS_ICBCs,using multiple initial and boundary conditions(ICs and BCs),and the CEFS_ICBCs Phys,which incorporates both multi-physics schemes and ICs/BCs,are compared to the CMA-REPS(China Meteorological Administration-Regional Ensemble Prediction System)with a coarser 10-km grid spacing.The two CEFSs demonstrate more uniform rank histograms and lower Brier scores(with higher resolution),improving precipitation intensity predictions and providing more reliable probability forecasts,although they overestimate precipitation over Mt.Dabie.It is challenging for the CEFSs to capture the evolution of mesoscale rainstorms that are known to be related to the errors in predicting the southwesterly low-level winds.Sensitivity experiments reveal that the microphysics and radiation schemes introduce considerable uncertainty in predicting the intensity and location of heavy rainfall in and near Nanjing and Mt.Dabie.In particular,the Asymmetric Convection Model 2(ACM2)planetary boundary layer scheme combined with the Pleim-Xiu surface layer scheme tends to produce a biased northeastward extension of the boundary-layer jet,contributing to the northeastward bias of heavy precipitation around Nanjing in the CEFS_ICBCs.展开更多
This study investigates the load-bearing capacity of open-ended pipe piles in sandy soil, with a specific focus on the impact of soil plug constraints at four levels(no plug, 25% plug, 50% plug, and full plug). Levera...This study investigates the load-bearing capacity of open-ended pipe piles in sandy soil, with a specific focus on the impact of soil plug constraints at four levels(no plug, 25% plug, 50% plug, and full plug). Leveraging a dataset comprising open-ended pipe piles with varying geometrical and geotechnical properties, this research employs shallow neural network(SNN) and deep neural network(DNN) models to predict plugging conditions for both driven and pressed installation types. This paper underscores the importance of key parameters such as the settlement value,applied load, installation type, and soil configuration(loose, medium, and dense) in accurately predicting pile settlement. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing pile design and construction in geotechnical engineering,addressing a longstanding challenge in the field. The study demonstrates the potential of the SNN and DNN models in precisely identifying plugging conditions before pile driving, with the SNN achieving R2 values ranging from0.444 to 0.711 and RMSPE values ranging from 24.621% to 48.663%, whereas the DNN exhibits superior performance, with R2 values ranging from 0.815 to 0.942 and RMSPE values ranging from 4.419% to 10.325%. These results have significant implications for enhancing construction practices and reducing uncertainties associated with pile foundation projects in addition to leveraging artificial intelligence tools to avoid long experimental procedures.展开更多
The financial health of leading enterprises has a significant impact on the sustainable development of the global economy.Most data-driven financial health forecasts are based on the direct use of small-scale machine ...The financial health of leading enterprises has a significant impact on the sustainable development of the global economy.Most data-driven financial health forecasts are based on the direct use of small-scale machine learning.In this study,we proposed the idea of optimization coupling learning to improve these machine learning models in financial health forecasting.It not only revealed lagging,immediate,continuous impacts of various indicators in different fiscal year,but also had the same low computational cost and complexity as known small-scale machine learning models.We used our optimization coupling learning to investigate 3424 leading enterprises in China and revealed inner triggering mechanisms and differences of enterprises’financial health status from individual behavior to macro level.展开更多
Grid forecasting can be used to effectively enhance the spatial and temporal density of forecast products,thereby improving the capability of short-term marine disaster forecasting and warnings in terms of proximity.T...Grid forecasting can be used to effectively enhance the spatial and temporal density of forecast products,thereby improving the capability of short-term marine disaster forecasting and warnings in terms of proximity.The traditional method that relies on forecasters'subjective correction of station observation data for forecasting has been unable to meet the practical needs of refined forecasting.To address this problem,this paper proposes a Transformer-enhanced UNet(TransUNet)model for wave forecast AI correction,which fuses wind and wave information.The Transformer structure is integrated into the encoder of the UNet model,and instead of using the traditional upsampling method,the dual-sampling module is employed in the decoder to enhance the feature extraction capability.This paper compares the TransUNet model with the traditional UNet model using wind speed forecast data,wave height forecast data,and significant wave height reanalysis data provided by ECMWF.The experimental results indicate that the TransUNet model yields smaller root-meansquare errors,mean errors,and standard deviations of the corrected results for the next 24-h forecasts than does the UNet model.Specifically,the root-mean-square error decreased by more than 21.55%compared to its precorrection value.According to the statistical analysis,87.81%of the corrected wave height errors for the next 24-h forecast were within±0.2m,with only 4.56%falling beyond±0.3 m.This model effectively limits the error range and enhances the ability to forecast wave heights.展开更多
The impacts of lateral boundary conditions(LBCs)provided by numerical models and data-driven networks on convective-scale ensemble forecasts are investigated in this study.Four experiments are conducted on the Hangzho...The impacts of lateral boundary conditions(LBCs)provided by numerical models and data-driven networks on convective-scale ensemble forecasts are investigated in this study.Four experiments are conducted on the Hangzhou RDP(19th Hangzhou Asian Games Research Development Project on Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction and Application)testbed,with the LBCs respectively sourced from National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecast System(GFS)forecasts with 33 vertical levels(Exp_GFS),Pangu forecasts with 13 vertical levels(Exp_Pangu),Fuxi forecasts with 13 vertical levels(Exp_Fuxi),and NCEP GFS forecasts with the vertical levels reduced to 13(the same as those of Exp_Pangu and Exp_Fuxi)(Exp_GFSRDV).In general,Exp_Pangu performs comparably to Exp_GFS,while Exp_Fuxi shows slightly inferior performance compared to Exp_Pangu,possibly due to its less accurate large-scale predictions.Therefore,the ability of using data-driven networks to efficiently provide LBCs for convective-scale ensemble forecasts has been demonstrated.Moreover,Exp_GFSRDV has the worst convective-scale forecasts among the four experiments,which indicates the potential improvement of using data-driven networks for LBCs by increasing the vertical levels of the networks.However,the ensemble spread of the four experiments barely increases with lead time.Thus,each experiment has insufficient ensemble spread to present realistic forecast uncertainties,which will be investigated in a future study.展开更多
Moisture conditions are crucial for the maintenance and development of severe convection.In the indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity,hydrometeors and water vapor retrieved from reflectivity are assimilated to a...Moisture conditions are crucial for the maintenance and development of severe convection.In the indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity,hydrometeors and water vapor retrieved from reflectivity are assimilated to avoid the nonlinearity issues associated with the observation operator.In a widely applied water vapor retrieval scheme,a cloud is assumed to be saturated when the radar reflectivity exceeds a certain threshold.This study replaces the traditional retrieval scheme with the“Z-RH”(radar reflectivity and relative humidity)linear statistical relationship for estimating the water vapor content,which is implemented to reduce the uncertainty caused by empirical relationships.The“Z-RH”relationship is statistically obtained from the humidity and the observations for rainfall rate at different temperature intervals with the use of the Z-R(radar reflectivity-rain rate)relationship.The impacts of these two retrieval approaches are investigated in the analyses and forecasts based on the radar reflectivity.The results suggest that both water vapor retrieval schemes yield similar reflectivity analyses,with“Z-RH”showing slightly stronger reflectivity intensities.Utilizing a“Z-RH”scheme contributes significantly to the improved analyses and forecasts of humidity and wind fields,resulting in more reasonable thermodynamic and dynamic structures.As the“Z-RH”relationship obtained by real-time statistics in a specific area provides a scientific basis for the retrieval of water vapor,a“Z-RH”scheme is beneficial to obtain more accurate reflectivity forecasts.The overall scores for the predicted precipitation of a“Z-RH”scheme are roughly 10%-20%higher compared to those of the traditional scheme.展开更多
目的探究老年急性A型主动脉夹层(acute type A aortic dissection,ATAAD)患者新发术后心房颤动(postoperative atrial fibrillation,POAF)的列线图预测模型构建。方法选择2023年5月至2025年5月于南阳医学高等专科学校第一附属医院心脏...目的探究老年急性A型主动脉夹层(acute type A aortic dissection,ATAAD)患者新发术后心房颤动(postoperative atrial fibrillation,POAF)的列线图预测模型构建。方法选择2023年5月至2025年5月于南阳医学高等专科学校第一附属医院心脏外科手术治疗的老年ATAAD患者150例,根据有无POAF分为POAF组67例和无POAF组83例。采用R软件构建老年ATAAD患者合并POAF的风险列线图模型;采用ROC曲线评估列线图模型的预测能力。结果POAF组年龄、体外循环时间、C反应蛋白、左心房直径明显高于无POAF组(P<0.01)。年龄、体外循环时间、C反应蛋白、左心房直径为老年ATAAD患者合并POAF的危险因素(P<0.05),老年ATAAD患者合并POAF的风险列线图模型预测患者合并POAF的敏感性为79.10%,特异性为87.95%,ROC曲线下面积为0.832(95%CI:0.762~0.903)。结论老年ATAAD患者合并POAF与年龄、体外循环时间、C反应蛋白、左心房直径有关,基于此构建的列线图预测模型对老年ATAAD患者合并POAF有较好的预测能力。展开更多
基金supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 72401055in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52277083in part by the joint founding of Guangdong,and Dongguan under Grant 2023A1515110939.
文摘Existing load forecasting methods typically assume that recent load data are available for prediction.This is not in conformity with reality since there is a time gap between the flow date(when power is consumed)and when measurement values are obtained.To this end,this letter proposes an online learning-based probabilistic load forecasting method considering the impact of the data gap.Specifically,an adaptive ensemble backpropagation-enabled online quantile regression algorithm is developed to optimize the parameters of the attention network recursively using the newly obtained load observations.To further improve the reliability and sharpness of prediction intervals under significant data gaps,we introduce an online interval calibration technique.The proposed online learning method allows us to adaptively capture the dynamic changes in load patterns and alleviate the information lags caused by data gaps.Comparative tests utilizing real-world datasets reveal the superiority of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030610 and 42205006)the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST(2023r121)。
文摘This study focuses on an extreme rainfall event in East China during the mei-yu season,in which the capital city(Nanjing)of Jiangsu Province experienced a maximum 14-h rainfall accumulation of 209.6 mm and a peak hourly rainfall of 118.8 mm.The performance of two sets of convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs),each with 30 members and a 3-km horizontal grid spacing,is evaluated.The CEFS_ICBCs,using multiple initial and boundary conditions(ICs and BCs),and the CEFS_ICBCs Phys,which incorporates both multi-physics schemes and ICs/BCs,are compared to the CMA-REPS(China Meteorological Administration-Regional Ensemble Prediction System)with a coarser 10-km grid spacing.The two CEFSs demonstrate more uniform rank histograms and lower Brier scores(with higher resolution),improving precipitation intensity predictions and providing more reliable probability forecasts,although they overestimate precipitation over Mt.Dabie.It is challenging for the CEFSs to capture the evolution of mesoscale rainstorms that are known to be related to the errors in predicting the southwesterly low-level winds.Sensitivity experiments reveal that the microphysics and radiation schemes introduce considerable uncertainty in predicting the intensity and location of heavy rainfall in and near Nanjing and Mt.Dabie.In particular,the Asymmetric Convection Model 2(ACM2)planetary boundary layer scheme combined with the Pleim-Xiu surface layer scheme tends to produce a biased northeastward extension of the boundary-layer jet,contributing to the northeastward bias of heavy precipitation around Nanjing in the CEFS_ICBCs.
文摘This study investigates the load-bearing capacity of open-ended pipe piles in sandy soil, with a specific focus on the impact of soil plug constraints at four levels(no plug, 25% plug, 50% plug, and full plug). Leveraging a dataset comprising open-ended pipe piles with varying geometrical and geotechnical properties, this research employs shallow neural network(SNN) and deep neural network(DNN) models to predict plugging conditions for both driven and pressed installation types. This paper underscores the importance of key parameters such as the settlement value,applied load, installation type, and soil configuration(loose, medium, and dense) in accurately predicting pile settlement. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing pile design and construction in geotechnical engineering,addressing a longstanding challenge in the field. The study demonstrates the potential of the SNN and DNN models in precisely identifying plugging conditions before pile driving, with the SNN achieving R2 values ranging from0.444 to 0.711 and RMSPE values ranging from 24.621% to 48.663%, whereas the DNN exhibits superior performance, with R2 values ranging from 0.815 to 0.942 and RMSPE values ranging from 4.419% to 10.325%. These results have significant implications for enhancing construction practices and reducing uncertainties associated with pile foundation projects in addition to leveraging artificial intelligence tools to avoid long experimental procedures.
基金supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 Framework Program No.861584the Taishan Distinguished Professor Fund No.20190910.
文摘The financial health of leading enterprises has a significant impact on the sustainable development of the global economy.Most data-driven financial health forecasts are based on the direct use of small-scale machine learning.In this study,we proposed the idea of optimization coupling learning to improve these machine learning models in financial health forecasting.It not only revealed lagging,immediate,continuous impacts of various indicators in different fiscal year,but also had the same low computational cost and complexity as known small-scale machine learning models.We used our optimization coupling learning to investigate 3424 leading enterprises in China and revealed inner triggering mechanisms and differences of enterprises’financial health status from individual behavior to macro level.
基金supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(Grant No.SML2023SP214)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62071279 and 42206029)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFA0608804)。
文摘Grid forecasting can be used to effectively enhance the spatial and temporal density of forecast products,thereby improving the capability of short-term marine disaster forecasting and warnings in terms of proximity.The traditional method that relies on forecasters'subjective correction of station observation data for forecasting has been unable to meet the practical needs of refined forecasting.To address this problem,this paper proposes a Transformer-enhanced UNet(TransUNet)model for wave forecast AI correction,which fuses wind and wave information.The Transformer structure is integrated into the encoder of the UNet model,and instead of using the traditional upsampling method,the dual-sampling module is employed in the decoder to enhance the feature extraction capability.This paper compares the TransUNet model with the traditional UNet model using wind speed forecast data,wave height forecast data,and significant wave height reanalysis data provided by ECMWF.The experimental results indicate that the TransUNet model yields smaller root-meansquare errors,mean errors,and standard deviations of the corrected results for the next 24-h forecasts than does the UNet model.Specifically,the root-mean-square error decreased by more than 21.55%compared to its precorrection value.According to the statistical analysis,87.81%of the corrected wave height errors for the next 24-h forecast were within±0.2m,with only 4.56%falling beyond±0.3 m.This model effectively limits the error range and enhances the ability to forecast wave heights.
基金supported by the Strategic Research and Consulting Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering[grant number 2024-XBZD-14]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42192553 and 41922036]the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities–Cemac“GeoX”Interdisciplinary Program[grant number 020714380207]。
文摘The impacts of lateral boundary conditions(LBCs)provided by numerical models and data-driven networks on convective-scale ensemble forecasts are investigated in this study.Four experiments are conducted on the Hangzhou RDP(19th Hangzhou Asian Games Research Development Project on Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction and Application)testbed,with the LBCs respectively sourced from National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)Global Forecast System(GFS)forecasts with 33 vertical levels(Exp_GFS),Pangu forecasts with 13 vertical levels(Exp_Pangu),Fuxi forecasts with 13 vertical levels(Exp_Fuxi),and NCEP GFS forecasts with the vertical levels reduced to 13(the same as those of Exp_Pangu and Exp_Fuxi)(Exp_GFSRDV).In general,Exp_Pangu performs comparably to Exp_GFS,while Exp_Fuxi shows slightly inferior performance compared to Exp_Pangu,possibly due to its less accurate large-scale predictions.Therefore,the ability of using data-driven networks to efficiently provide LBCs for convective-scale ensemble forecasts has been demonstrated.Moreover,Exp_GFSRDV has the worst convective-scale forecasts among the four experiments,which indicates the potential improvement of using data-driven networks for LBCs by increasing the vertical levels of the networks.However,the ensemble spread of the four experiments barely increases with lead time.Thus,each experiment has insufficient ensemble spread to present realistic forecast uncertainties,which will be investigated in a future study.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42192553,Grant No.41805070)Open Grants of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather(2024LASW-B05)+7 种基金Natural Science Fund of Anhui Province of China under grant(2308085MD127)the China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key Laboratory(TKL202306)Beijige Funding from Jiangsu Research Institute of Meteorological Science(BJG202503)the Open Grants of China Meteorological Administration Radar Meteorology Key Laboratory(2023LRM-B03)the Open Project Fund of China Meteorological Administration Basin Heavy Rainfall Key Laboratory(2023BHRY20)the Shanghai Typhoon Research Foundation(TFJJ202107)Innovation and Development Projects of Anhui Provincial Meteorological Bureau(CXM202205)the High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work.
文摘Moisture conditions are crucial for the maintenance and development of severe convection.In the indirect assimilation of radar reflectivity,hydrometeors and water vapor retrieved from reflectivity are assimilated to avoid the nonlinearity issues associated with the observation operator.In a widely applied water vapor retrieval scheme,a cloud is assumed to be saturated when the radar reflectivity exceeds a certain threshold.This study replaces the traditional retrieval scheme with the“Z-RH”(radar reflectivity and relative humidity)linear statistical relationship for estimating the water vapor content,which is implemented to reduce the uncertainty caused by empirical relationships.The“Z-RH”relationship is statistically obtained from the humidity and the observations for rainfall rate at different temperature intervals with the use of the Z-R(radar reflectivity-rain rate)relationship.The impacts of these two retrieval approaches are investigated in the analyses and forecasts based on the radar reflectivity.The results suggest that both water vapor retrieval schemes yield similar reflectivity analyses,with“Z-RH”showing slightly stronger reflectivity intensities.Utilizing a“Z-RH”scheme contributes significantly to the improved analyses and forecasts of humidity and wind fields,resulting in more reasonable thermodynamic and dynamic structures.As the“Z-RH”relationship obtained by real-time statistics in a specific area provides a scientific basis for the retrieval of water vapor,a“Z-RH”scheme is beneficial to obtain more accurate reflectivity forecasts.The overall scores for the predicted precipitation of a“Z-RH”scheme are roughly 10%-20%higher compared to those of the traditional scheme.
文摘目的探究老年急性A型主动脉夹层(acute type A aortic dissection,ATAAD)患者新发术后心房颤动(postoperative atrial fibrillation,POAF)的列线图预测模型构建。方法选择2023年5月至2025年5月于南阳医学高等专科学校第一附属医院心脏外科手术治疗的老年ATAAD患者150例,根据有无POAF分为POAF组67例和无POAF组83例。采用R软件构建老年ATAAD患者合并POAF的风险列线图模型;采用ROC曲线评估列线图模型的预测能力。结果POAF组年龄、体外循环时间、C反应蛋白、左心房直径明显高于无POAF组(P<0.01)。年龄、体外循环时间、C反应蛋白、左心房直径为老年ATAAD患者合并POAF的危险因素(P<0.05),老年ATAAD患者合并POAF的风险列线图模型预测患者合并POAF的敏感性为79.10%,特异性为87.95%,ROC曲线下面积为0.832(95%CI:0.762~0.903)。结论老年ATAAD患者合并POAF与年龄、体外循环时间、C反应蛋白、左心房直径有关,基于此构建的列线图预测模型对老年ATAAD患者合并POAF有较好的预测能力。
