An SST model which is good at predicting offshore-SST anomaly (O-SSTA) has been developed. It is composed of three parts: equations of dynamics, equations of model's physics and equations of affecting factors of ...An SST model which is good at predicting offshore-SST anomaly (O-SSTA) has been developed. It is composed of three parts: equations of dynamics, equations of model's physics and equations of affecting factors of O-SSTA. Initial field of SST is prepared for a case of O-SSTA on last decade of July 1994, in which there are a center of warm anomaly in the Huanghai Sea and a center of cold anomaly in the East China Sea to be developing simultaneously. Using the Observed atmospheric forcing, the (decade) experiment forecast is made. Forecasting accuracy of warm (cold) anomaly is 32/44 (29/33 )' the ensemble accuracy reaches R = 91% and AMD = 0. 67 t. The chief affecting factors of O-SSTA for this case are shown, for warm anomaly: (1 ) afar radiation (weight is 64 % ), (2) the convergence of warm water (9% ), (3 ) shallow-water effects; and for cold anomaly: (l) pumping of typhoon (44 % ), (2) entrainment of storm (24 % ), (3) latent heat (19 % ), respectively. It is identified that the formation of warm (cold) anomaly is a slower (faster) process.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study the obtaining method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [Method] Based on the national standard surface observation data and secondary data bank obtai...[Objective] The aim was to study the obtaining method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [Method] Based on the national standard surface observation data and secondary data bank obtained by means of distance weight interpolation method, the model of climate forecast was established, and the timing, fixed-point and quantitative meticulous climate forecast of meteorological elements was obtained by using many forecast methods and artificial revision, finally the forecast effect was tested. [Result] At present, meticulous climate forecast system was used to predict the daily, five-day, ten-day, monthly, seasonal and annual variation of six meteorological elements (including average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, average pressure and sunshine) in 10 meteorological stations in Guangzhou City. The forecast effect of meteorological elements in 10 stations in Guangzhou City from 2006 to 2010 was tested, and the average scores of monthly precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 75.0, 94.5, 98.6 and 88.9, respectively, while the scores of five-day meteorological elements were 77.1, 90.6, 90.1 and 82.8, which met the requirement of objective management of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory. [Conclusion] Meticulous climate forecast system could be widely used in the forecast of agricultural meteorological disasters and fixed-point forecast in large reservoir, new airport and nuclear power station.展开更多
文摘An SST model which is good at predicting offshore-SST anomaly (O-SSTA) has been developed. It is composed of three parts: equations of dynamics, equations of model's physics and equations of affecting factors of O-SSTA. Initial field of SST is prepared for a case of O-SSTA on last decade of July 1994, in which there are a center of warm anomaly in the Huanghai Sea and a center of cold anomaly in the East China Sea to be developing simultaneously. Using the Observed atmospheric forcing, the (decade) experiment forecast is made. Forecasting accuracy of warm (cold) anomaly is 32/44 (29/33 )' the ensemble accuracy reaches R = 91% and AMD = 0. 67 t. The chief affecting factors of O-SSTA for this case are shown, for warm anomaly: (1 ) afar radiation (weight is 64 % ), (2) the convergence of warm water (9% ), (3 ) shallow-water effects; and for cold anomaly: (l) pumping of typhoon (44 % ), (2) entrainment of storm (24 % ), (3) latent heat (19 % ), respectively. It is identified that the formation of warm (cold) anomaly is a slower (faster) process.
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the obtaining method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [Method] Based on the national standard surface observation data and secondary data bank obtained by means of distance weight interpolation method, the model of climate forecast was established, and the timing, fixed-point and quantitative meticulous climate forecast of meteorological elements was obtained by using many forecast methods and artificial revision, finally the forecast effect was tested. [Result] At present, meticulous climate forecast system was used to predict the daily, five-day, ten-day, monthly, seasonal and annual variation of six meteorological elements (including average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, average pressure and sunshine) in 10 meteorological stations in Guangzhou City. The forecast effect of meteorological elements in 10 stations in Guangzhou City from 2006 to 2010 was tested, and the average scores of monthly precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 75.0, 94.5, 98.6 and 88.9, respectively, while the scores of five-day meteorological elements were 77.1, 90.6, 90.1 and 82.8, which met the requirement of objective management of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory. [Conclusion] Meticulous climate forecast system could be widely used in the forecast of agricultural meteorological disasters and fixed-point forecast in large reservoir, new airport and nuclear power station.
