Taking the flood resources utilization in Baicheng,Jilin during 2002–2007 as the research background,and based on the entropy weight and multi-level&multi-objective fuzzy optimization theory,this research establi...Taking the flood resources utilization in Baicheng,Jilin during 2002–2007 as the research background,and based on the entropy weight and multi-level&multi-objective fuzzy optimization theory,this research established a multi-level&semi-constructive index system and dynamic successive evaluation model for comprehensive benefit evaluation of regional flood resources utilization.With the year 2002 as the base year,the analyzing results showed that there existed a close positive correlation between flood utilization volume and its benefits,comprehensive evaluation value and its comparison increment.Within the six successive evaluation years,the comprehensive benefit of 2003 was the best,in which the benefit evaluation increment reached 82.8%whereas the year of 2004 was the worst,in which the increment was only 18.2%.Thus the sustainability and correctness of the evaluation were verified by six years successive evaluation and increment comparison.The analyzing results showed that the economic benefits,ecological benefits and social benefits of flood utilization were remarkable,and that the comprehensive benefit could be improved by increasing flood utilization capacity,which would promote the regional sustainable development as well.The established dynamic successive evaluation provides a stable theoretical basis and technical support for further flood utilization.展开更多
It is of great significance to study the encounter possibility of typhoon and plum rain in the Taihu Lake Basin in order to adjust the schemes of design storm and utilize flood resource and make the decision of real-t...It is of great significance to study the encounter possibility of typhoon and plum rain in the Taihu Lake Basin in order to adjust the schemes of design storm and utilize flood resource and make the decision of real-time scheduling for flood control in the Basin.Based upon the existing research findings of description of encounter phenomena of typhoon and plum rain,the initial time of typhoon affecting the Taihu Lake Basin,the start time of plum rain season and the end time of plum rain season were selected as the characteristic indices of typhoon and plum rain,respectively.According to their synchronous data from 1954 to 2009,the distribution functions of the above-mentioned three random variables were identified and a formula expressing the encounter possibility of typhoon and plum rain was derived.In view of the complexity and solution of this formula,joint distribution functions of typhoon and plum rain were constructed by the use of Gumbel Copula function on the basis of the adaptability comparison among three functions(Gumbel Copula,Clayton Copula and Frank Copula)in Archimedean functions.For the characteristics of the formula with the joint distribution functions based on Gumbel Copula function,two methods,i.e.,numerical integration and Monte Carlo simulation,were selected to solve the encounter probability,and the validity of the computed results was analyzed finally.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50679012)National Key Technologies Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2006BAB14B05)
文摘Taking the flood resources utilization in Baicheng,Jilin during 2002–2007 as the research background,and based on the entropy weight and multi-level&multi-objective fuzzy optimization theory,this research established a multi-level&semi-constructive index system and dynamic successive evaluation model for comprehensive benefit evaluation of regional flood resources utilization.With the year 2002 as the base year,the analyzing results showed that there existed a close positive correlation between flood utilization volume and its benefits,comprehensive evaluation value and its comparison increment.Within the six successive evaluation years,the comprehensive benefit of 2003 was the best,in which the benefit evaluation increment reached 82.8%whereas the year of 2004 was the worst,in which the increment was only 18.2%.Thus the sustainability and correctness of the evaluation were verified by six years successive evaluation and increment comparison.The analyzing results showed that the economic benefits,ecological benefits and social benefits of flood utilization were remarkable,and that the comprehensive benefit could be improved by increasing flood utilization capacity,which would promote the regional sustainable development as well.The established dynamic successive evaluation provides a stable theoretical basis and technical support for further flood utilization.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.50909063 and 51079037)Modern Water Science and Technology Innovation Project(Grant No.XDS2007-04)Non-Profit Special Industry Research Project both funded by the Ministry Water Resources of China(Grant Nos.200901044 and 200901030)
文摘It is of great significance to study the encounter possibility of typhoon and plum rain in the Taihu Lake Basin in order to adjust the schemes of design storm and utilize flood resource and make the decision of real-time scheduling for flood control in the Basin.Based upon the existing research findings of description of encounter phenomena of typhoon and plum rain,the initial time of typhoon affecting the Taihu Lake Basin,the start time of plum rain season and the end time of plum rain season were selected as the characteristic indices of typhoon and plum rain,respectively.According to their synchronous data from 1954 to 2009,the distribution functions of the above-mentioned three random variables were identified and a formula expressing the encounter possibility of typhoon and plum rain was derived.In view of the complexity and solution of this formula,joint distribution functions of typhoon and plum rain were constructed by the use of Gumbel Copula function on the basis of the adaptability comparison among three functions(Gumbel Copula,Clayton Copula and Frank Copula)in Archimedean functions.For the characteristics of the formula with the joint distribution functions based on Gumbel Copula function,two methods,i.e.,numerical integration and Monte Carlo simulation,were selected to solve the encounter probability,and the validity of the computed results was analyzed finally.
