The manuscript proposed a procedure designed to determine the hazard of total coastal flooding during the impact of hurricanes, which uses in its formulation the combination of river flooding and that caused by marine...The manuscript proposed a procedure designed to determine the hazard of total coastal flooding during the impact of hurricanes, which uses in its formulation the combination of river flooding and that caused by marine upwelling, which </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> multiplied by a density factor of the water that finds an explanation for the effect is shielding and rising of the water level when the currents of both floods collide in the coastal zone. The application of the procedure experimentally in the coastal sector Sevilla, of the municipality Guama province Santiago de Cuba, result</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ing</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> in the confirmation of areas previously mod</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">eled and estimated coastal flooding in the wake of extreme wea</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ther events in the study area;in addition to other new areas that confirm the actual visual and instrumental observations not included in previous studies.展开更多
Based on the systematic summary of current research on oil bank, the definition of oil bank in the process of fire flooding and its quantitative indices were proposed; and a new one-dimensional positive dry-fire flood...Based on the systematic summary of current research on oil bank, the definition of oil bank in the process of fire flooding and its quantitative indices were proposed; and a new one-dimensional positive dry-fire flooding model considering temperature gradient was established based on the steady flow theory of gas and liquid phases. Single factor analysis and orthogonal experiments were adopted to verify the reliability and reveal the formation mechanisms and the controlling factors of the oil bank. Then the optimal conditions for the oil bank to form were discussed. The study results show the formation of the oil bank is controlled by 3 factors:(1) Oil bank would come into being within a certain temperature interval and above a critical value of temperature gradient(absolute value), with temperature too high or too low and temperature gradient absolute value lower than the critical value, the oil bank couldn't form.(2) For fire flooding process in heavy oil reservoirs, the viscosity of oil influences the width of oil bank and the speed at which oil bank forms; the lower the oil viscosity is, the wider the oil bank is and the faster the oil bank forms.(3) Oil saturation could affect the developing temperature and speed of oil bank. The favorable temperature at which oil bank develops gets lower and the accumulating speed of oil gets faster when the oil saturation is higher. By orthogonal experiments with the model, the optimal combinations of reservoir conditions for forming oil bank during fire flooding in heavy oil reservoirs can be worked out.展开更多
Flood events vary with sub-regions, sites and time and show complex characteristics. This study investigated temporal variabilities in flood discharges and relationships with principal driving factors in data scarce W...Flood events vary with sub-regions, sites and time and show complex characteristics. This study investigated temporal variabilities in flood discharges and relationships with principal driving factors in data scarce Wabi Shebele River Basin. The preliminary analysis using exploratory data analysis (EDA) on annual and seasonal maximum discharge reveals that there are cycles of extreme flows at five- and ten-year intervals respectively throughout the basin. The statistical verification using the Mann-Kendall test and Quantile perturbation method indicates a significant trend in flood magnitude and frequency entire the basin in the early 21st century. For longest period (1980-2010) annual maximum stream flow shows significant positive trend (p-value < 0.05) in middle catchments and negative trend (p-value < 0.05) in eastern catchments. The years: 1986-1995, 2006-2010 are the years in which positive significant anomalies occurred in all seasons, while the years: 1980-1985, 1996-2005 are the occurrence years of significant negative anomalies. Rainfall from climate drivers;DA, BE, VS and fraction of sand from environmental background drivers;fraction of forest and population density from external factors were identified as the powerful driving factors of flood variabilities in the Wabi Shebele River Basin.展开更多
Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic di...Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that （l） the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; （2） considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and （3） under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.展开更多
文摘The manuscript proposed a procedure designed to determine the hazard of total coastal flooding during the impact of hurricanes, which uses in its formulation the combination of river flooding and that caused by marine upwelling, which </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">is</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> multiplied by a density factor of the water that finds an explanation for the effect is shielding and rising of the water level when the currents of both floods collide in the coastal zone. The application of the procedure experimentally in the coastal sector Sevilla, of the municipality Guama province Santiago de Cuba, result</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ing</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> in the confirmation of areas previously mod</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">eled and estimated coastal flooding in the wake of extreme wea</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ther events in the study area;in addition to other new areas that confirm the actual visual and instrumental observations not included in previous studies.
基金Supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project(2016ZX05012-004)the PetroChina Science and Technology Project(2016B-1402)
文摘Based on the systematic summary of current research on oil bank, the definition of oil bank in the process of fire flooding and its quantitative indices were proposed; and a new one-dimensional positive dry-fire flooding model considering temperature gradient was established based on the steady flow theory of gas and liquid phases. Single factor analysis and orthogonal experiments were adopted to verify the reliability and reveal the formation mechanisms and the controlling factors of the oil bank. Then the optimal conditions for the oil bank to form were discussed. The study results show the formation of the oil bank is controlled by 3 factors:(1) Oil bank would come into being within a certain temperature interval and above a critical value of temperature gradient(absolute value), with temperature too high or too low and temperature gradient absolute value lower than the critical value, the oil bank couldn't form.(2) For fire flooding process in heavy oil reservoirs, the viscosity of oil influences the width of oil bank and the speed at which oil bank forms; the lower the oil viscosity is, the wider the oil bank is and the faster the oil bank forms.(3) Oil saturation could affect the developing temperature and speed of oil bank. The favorable temperature at which oil bank develops gets lower and the accumulating speed of oil gets faster when the oil saturation is higher. By orthogonal experiments with the model, the optimal combinations of reservoir conditions for forming oil bank during fire flooding in heavy oil reservoirs can be worked out.
文摘Flood events vary with sub-regions, sites and time and show complex characteristics. This study investigated temporal variabilities in flood discharges and relationships with principal driving factors in data scarce Wabi Shebele River Basin. The preliminary analysis using exploratory data analysis (EDA) on annual and seasonal maximum discharge reveals that there are cycles of extreme flows at five- and ten-year intervals respectively throughout the basin. The statistical verification using the Mann-Kendall test and Quantile perturbation method indicates a significant trend in flood magnitude and frequency entire the basin in the early 21st century. For longest period (1980-2010) annual maximum stream flow shows significant positive trend (p-value < 0.05) in middle catchments and negative trend (p-value < 0.05) in eastern catchments. The years: 1986-1995, 2006-2010 are the years in which positive significant anomalies occurred in all seasons, while the years: 1980-1985, 1996-2005 are the occurrence years of significant negative anomalies. Rainfall from climate drivers;DA, BE, VS and fraction of sand from environmental background drivers;fraction of forest and population density from external factors were identified as the powerful driving factors of flood variabilities in the Wabi Shebele River Basin.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51139001)
文摘Three stochastic mathematical models for calculation of the reservoir flood regulation process, river course flood release, and flood risk rate under flood control were established based on the theory of stochastic differential equations and features of flood control systems in the middle reach of the Huaihe River from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate, comprehensively considering uncertain factors of hydrology, hydraulics, and engineering control. They were used to calculate the flood risk rate with flood regulation of five key reservoirs, including the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Nianyushan, Mozitan, and Foziling reservoirs in the middle reach of the Huaihe River under different flood frequencies, the flood risk rate with river course flood release under design and check floods for the trunk of the Huaihe River in conjunction with relevant flood storage areas, and the flood risk rate with operation of the Linhuaigang Project under design and check floods. The calculated results show that （l） the five reservoirs can withstand design floods, but the Xianghongdian and Foziling reservoirs will suffer overtopping accidents under check floods; （2） considering the service of flood storage areas under the design flood conditions of the Huaihe River, the mean flood risk rate with flood regulation of dykes and dams from Xixian to the Bengbu floodgate is about 0.2, and the trunk of the Huaihe River can generally withstand design floods; and （3） under a check flood with the flood return period of 1 000 years, the risk rate of overtopping accidents of the Linhuaigang Project is not larger than 0.15, indicating that it has a high flood regulation capacity. Through regulation and application of the flood control system of the Linhuigang Project, the Huaihe River Basin can withstand large floods, and the safety of the protected area can be ensured.
