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基于Flood Area模型的邢台市小马河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险分布特征 被引量:5
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作者 赵志楠 王丽荣 +1 位作者 王丛梅 韩晓庆 《干旱气象》 2021年第3期486-493,共8页
利用邢台市小马河流域26个区域站2014—2019年及周边7个国家站1980—2019年的逐日降水资料,基于泰森多边形法和MuDFiT软件计算不同重现期面雨量。运行Flood Area模型对该流域不同重现期下的淹没范围进行模拟,基于此叠加承灾体数据,得到... 利用邢台市小马河流域26个区域站2014—2019年及周边7个国家站1980—2019年的逐日降水资料,基于泰森多边形法和MuDFiT软件计算不同重现期面雨量。运行Flood Area模型对该流域不同重现期下的淹没范围进行模拟,基于此叠加承灾体数据,得到各承灾体受损率。为验证模拟结果的准确性,选取2016年7月19—20日强降雨过程对百年一遇暴雨洪涝灾害风险分布特征进行验证,结果与模拟淹没范围基本一致。研究表明随着重现期不断增大,洪水逐渐向中下游地区推进,淹没范围不断扩大加深。当淹没深度在0.1~0.3 m及1.0 m以上时,林地受损率最高,淹没深度小于0.1 m时,林地受损率最低。人口、GDP、城镇用地、耕地、草地等其他承灾体淹没深度在0.1 m以下时受损率最高,在0.1~0.3 m时受损率次之,在1.0 m以上时受损率居中,在0.3~0.5 m时受损率较低,淹没深度位于0.5~1.0 m时受损率最低。 展开更多
关键词 暴雨洪涝 小马河流域 flood area模型 淹没模拟
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基于FloodArea模型的云南山洪淹没模拟研究 被引量:34
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作者 张明达 李蒙 +1 位作者 戴丛蕊 黄玮 《灾害学》 CSCD 2016年第1期78-82,共5页
致灾临界雨量法被普遍用于山洪预警,结合Flood Area模型动态模拟山洪灾害淹没是获取临界雨量的新方法。对2012年云南宣威"7.12"山洪灾害进行实地调查,获取山洪沟基本参数及隐患点淹没高度,利用周边气象站逐时降雨量进行淹没... 致灾临界雨量法被普遍用于山洪预警,结合Flood Area模型动态模拟山洪灾害淹没是获取临界雨量的新方法。对2012年云南宣威"7.12"山洪灾害进行实地调查,获取山洪沟基本参数及隐患点淹没高度,利用周边气象站逐时降雨量进行淹没模拟。结果表明:当临界雨量分别为42 mm、85 mm、136 mm和180 mm时,达到各山洪灾害等级淹没高度,即得出各等级致灾临界雨量。对比实测值和模拟值后得出,此模型具有一定的参考价值,但需更精确的地理信息数据支撑。 展开更多
关键词 floodarea 云南 山洪 临界雨量 淹没模拟
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A new multi-source remote sensing image sample dataset with high resolution for flood area extraction:GF-FloodNet
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作者 Yuwei Zhang Peng Liu +3 位作者 Lajiao Chen Mengzhen Xu Xingyan Guo Lingjun Zhao 《International Journal of Digital Earth》 SCIE EI 2023年第1期2522-2554,共33页
Deep learning algorithms show good prospects for remote sensingflood monitoring.They mostly rely on huge amounts of labeled data.However,there is a lack of available labeled data in actual needs.In this paper,we propo... Deep learning algorithms show good prospects for remote sensingflood monitoring.They mostly rely on huge amounts of labeled data.However,there is a lack of available labeled data in actual needs.In this paper,we propose a high-resolution multi-source remote sensing dataset forflood area extraction:GF-FloodNet.GF-FloodNet contains 13388 samples from Gaofen-3(GF-3)and Gaofen-2(GF-2)images.We use a multi-level sample selection and interactive annotation strategy based on active learning to construct it.Compare with otherflood-related datasets,GF-FloodNet not only has a spatial resolution of up to 1.5 m and provides pixel-level labels,but also consists of multi-source remote sensing data.We thoroughly validate and evaluate the dataset using several deep learning models,including quantitative analysis,qualitative analysis,and validation on large-scale remote sensing data in real scenes.Experimental results reveal that GF-FloodNet has significant advantages by multi-source data.It can support different deep learning models for training to extractflood areas.There should be a potential optimal boundary for model training in any deep learning dataset.The boundary seems close to 4824 samples in GF-FloodNet.We provide GF-FloodNet at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/pengliuair/gf-floodnet and https://pan.baidu.com/s/1vdUCGNAfFwG5UjZ9RLLFMQ?pwd=8v6o. 展开更多
关键词 flood area extraction dataset construction multi-source remote sensing data deep learning
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Visualization and Damage Assessment for Flooded Area
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作者 SU Guozhong YAN Li +1 位作者 LIU Nan LIU Renyi 《Geo-Spatial Information Science》 2004年第3期180-186,共7页
A practical method for visualizing flood area and evaluating damage is presented,which consists of two technical approaches:self-programming and adapting commercial GIS platforms.The low-cost and easy-to-use GIS-Based... A practical method for visualizing flood area and evaluating damage is presented,which consists of two technical approaches:self-programming and adapting commercial GIS platforms.The low-cost and easy-to-use GIS-Based model developed by self-programming can meet current requirements of most local authorities,especially in developing countries.In this model,two cases,non-source flood and source flood,are distinguished and the Seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flood is discussed;The flood damage is assessed by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and other related social and economic data.and all thematic maps are converted to raster format before overlay analysis.Two measures are taken to improve the operation efficiency of speed seed-spread algorithm.The accuracy of the model mainly depends on the resolution and precision of the DEM data,and the accuracy of registering all raster layers and the quality of attribute data. 展开更多
关键词 flood area visualization damage assessment seed spread algorithm
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基于Flood Area模型的模袋混凝土衬砌渠道糙率系数改进技术研究
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作者 张海玲 霍轶珍 +1 位作者 郭彦芬 王文达 《河套学院论坛》 2019年第1期90-93,共4页
以河套灌区建设一分干模袋混凝土衬砌渠道为研究对象,利用Flood Area模型,将糙率系数的设置做区分化处理;对渠道区域与坡面区域进行划分和赋值,在经验参数的基础上,结合建设一分干模袋混凝土衬砌渠道实际情况,设置栅格糙率系数,增加糙... 以河套灌区建设一分干模袋混凝土衬砌渠道为研究对象,利用Flood Area模型,将糙率系数的设置做区分化处理;对渠道区域与坡面区域进行划分和赋值,在经验参数的基础上,结合建设一分干模袋混凝土衬砌渠道实际情况,设置栅格糙率系数,增加糙率系数的精度。结果表明改进后的方法提高了流速,简化了率定流程,解决了模拟流速普遍偏低的问题。利用高程与糙率系数的函数关系,较全面、真实地仿真模拟模袋混凝土衬砌渠道的流场。 展开更多
关键词 flood area模型 模袋混凝土 糙率 TOPMODEL 区分化处理
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基于FloodArea模型的山西山谷地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险特征分析 被引量:1
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作者 岳江 范志宣 +3 位作者 师莉红 裴真 贺洁颖 王红霞 《河南科学》 2023年第9期1309-1316,共8页
基于1992—2021年降水观测数据和气象灾情数据,采用FloodArea模型对沁水经济技术开发区所在山谷地区不同重现期下的暴雨洪涝淹没范围进行模拟评估.结果表明:研究区所在地区不同重现期小时雨型呈多峰分布,山谷效应导致雨水汇流,淹没水深... 基于1992—2021年降水观测数据和气象灾情数据,采用FloodArea模型对沁水经济技术开发区所在山谷地区不同重现期下的暴雨洪涝淹没范围进行模拟评估.结果表明:研究区所在地区不同重现期小时雨型呈多峰分布,山谷效应导致雨水汇流,淹没水深和面积增加,具有一定的暴雨洪涝风险;区内大部分淹没面积在10cm^(2)以下;内涝等级为一般性内涝风险(10~25cm)的淹没面积为0.48km^(2),主要呈散点状分布于研究区各片区;中度内涝风险(25~50cm)的淹没面积为0.41km^(2),主要呈散点状分布在端氏综合服务中心周围;严重内涝风险(50~80cm)的淹没面积较少,为0.32km^(2);特别严重内涝风险(>80cm)的淹没面积为4.74km^(2),主要集中分布于北部产业片区和南部产业片区的偏西地区.各重现期淹没风险较大的区域主要分布在各个片区内低洼地区,与实际灾情相符. 展开更多
关键词 floodarea 山谷地区 暴雨洪涝 风险特征
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A GIS-based method for flooded area calculation and damage evaluation 被引量:1
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作者 LIU Ren-yi, LIU Nan (The Zhejiang Provincial GIS Lab, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310028, China) 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2001年第2期187-192,共6页
Using geographic information system to study flooded area and damage evaluation has been a hotspot in environmental disaster research for years. In this paper, a model for flooded area calculation and damage evaluatio... Using geographic information system to study flooded area and damage evaluation has been a hotspot in environmental disaster research for years. In this paper, a model for flooded area calculation and damage evaluation is presented. Flooding is divided into two types: ‘soruce flood’ and ‘non-source flood’. The source-flood area calculation is based on seed spread algorithm. The flood damage evaluation is calculated by overlaying the flooded ara range with thematic maps and relating the results to other social and economic data. To raise the operational efficiency of the model, a skipping approach is used to speed seed spread algorithm and all thematic maps are converted to raster format before overlay analysis. The accuracy of flooded area calculation and damage evaluation is mainly dependent upon the resolution and precision of the digital elevation model (DEM) data, upon the accuracy of registering all raster layers, and upon the quality of economic information. This model has been successfully used in the Zhejiang Province Comprehensive Water Management Information System developed by the authors. The applications show that this model is especially useful for most counties of China and other developing countries. 展开更多
关键词 MODEL flooded area calculation damage evaluation seed spread algorithm
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Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas 被引量:6
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作者 Li Zhijia Bao Hongjun +2 位作者 Xue Cangsheng Hu Yuzhong Fang Hong 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS 2008年第2期10-24,共15页
A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time err... A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin’anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin’anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas. 展开更多
关键词 flood forecasting and regulation Xin’anjiang model Muskingum method water stage simulating hydrologic method diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method flood diversion and retarding area Huai River
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基于FloodArea的三峡库区小流域山洪面雨量分析 被引量:14
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作者 周杰 刘晓冉 康俊 《气象科技》 2019年第4期697-704,共8页
以三峡库区普里河下游流域作为山洪灾害淹没模拟的研究区域,通过泰森多边形方法和算术平均方法分别计算流域面雨量,采用FloodArea模型对两种方法下的同一降水过程进行模拟,结合实地考察流域内淹没时间和淹没水深资料对比分析两者的模拟... 以三峡库区普里河下游流域作为山洪灾害淹没模拟的研究区域,通过泰森多边形方法和算术平均方法分别计算流域面雨量,采用FloodArea模型对两种方法下的同一降水过程进行模拟,结合实地考察流域内淹没时间和淹没水深资料对比分析两者的模拟结果。结论表明:泰森多边形方法下的山洪灾害淹没模拟能较好地反映普里河下游流域内的因降水导致的山洪推进路线、淹没范围及淹没水深,且该方法下推算的山洪灾害致灾临界面雨量更具有实际应用价值。该方法可用于推算流域内的山洪灾害致灾临界面雨量。 展开更多
关键词 临界面雨量 floodarea模型 泰森多边形 山洪灾害
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Prediction of the flooding area of the northeastern Caspian Sea from satellite images
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作者 Anzhelika T.Kamza Irina A.Kuznetsova Eugene L.Levin 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 CSCD 2023年第2期191-200,共10页
Studying the dynamic changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea is significant since the level of the Caspian is unstable,and the coastline change can cause enormous damage to the ecology,economy,and pop... Studying the dynamic changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea is significant since the level of the Caspian is unstable,and the coastline change can cause enormous damage to the ecology,economy,and population of the coastal part of Kazakhstan.In this work,we use remote sensing and Geographic Information System(GIS)technologies to study the changes in the coastline of the northeastern Caspian Sea and predict the extent of flooding with increasing water levels.The proposed methodology for creating dynamic maps can be used to monitor the coastline and forecast the extent of flooding in the area.As a result of this work,the main factors affecting changes in the coastline were identified.After analyzing the water level data from 1988 to 2019,it was revealed that the rise in water level was observed from 1980 to 1995.The maximum sea level rise was recorded at-26.04 m.After that,the sea level began to fall,and between 1996 and 2009,there were no significant changes;the water level fluctuated with an average of-27.18 m.Then,a map of the water level dynamics in the Caspian Sea from 1988 to 2019 was compiled.According to the dynamics map,water level rise and significant coastal retreat were revealed,especially in the northern part of the Caspian Sea and the northern and southern parts of Sora Kaydak.The method for predicting the estimated flooding area was described.As a result,based on a single map,the flooding area of the northeast coast was predicted.A comparative analysis of Landsat and SRTM data is presented. 展开更多
关键词 Caspian Sea SEABED Earth remote sensing GIS LANDSAT Prediction of the flooding area Ecology of coastline SRTM
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FLOOD SIMULATION IN DONGTING LAKE DRAINAGE AREA AND ITS FLOOD CONTROL 被引量:1
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作者 Huang Huaiyong Du Guoquan +1 位作者 Fan Weimin and Chen Guanghao(Changsha Institute of Geotectonics, Academia Sinica, Changsha 410013) 《Geotectonica et Metallogenia》 1998年第Z1期90-96,共7页
On the basis of water-balance equation in Dongting Lake and Xiang Zi Yuan-Li River drainage areas, a possib1e flood height relating to the rainfall precipitation in these areas has been inferred. According to the floo... On the basis of water-balance equation in Dongting Lake and Xiang Zi Yuan-Li River drainage areas, a possib1e flood height relating to the rainfall precipitation in these areas has been inferred. According to the flood simulation, some synthetic maintenance strategies to prevent future catastrophic f1oods in Dongting Lake drainage area have been also presented. 展开更多
关键词 Dongting LAKE drainage area flood SIMULATION SYNTHETIC maintenance
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Impacts of water surface area of watershed on design flood 被引量:1
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作者 Qing-hua ZHANG Yan-fang DIAO Jie DONG 《Water Science and Engineering》 EI CAS CSCD 2014年第1期41-48,共8页
In order to analyze the impact of the water surface area of a watershed on the design flood, the watershed was classified into a land watershed and a water surface watershed for flood flow calculation at the same time... In order to analyze the impact of the water surface area of a watershed on the design flood, the watershed was classified into a land watershed and a water surface watershed for flood flow calculation at the same time interval. Then, the design flood of the whole watershed was obtained by adding the two flood flows together. Using this method, we calculated design floods with different water surface areas of three reservoirs and analyzed the impact of water surface area on the flood volume and peak flow. The results indicate that larger water surface areas lead to greater impacts on the flood volume and peak flow. For the same watershed area, the impact of water surface area on the flood volume and peak flow is positively proportional to the flood frequency, i.e., the higher the frequency, the greater the impact becomes. 展开更多
关键词 WATERSHED water surface area design flood flood frequency flood volume peak Jlow
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Assessment of Flood Hazard of Jeddah Area 2009, Saudi Arabia
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作者 Mashael Al Saud 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 2010年第9期839-847,共9页
Due climatic variability and anthropogenic changes, floods have been raised lately in several regions worldwide. The resulting impact from floods is often harmful. This can be applied to Saudi Arabia, the country whic... Due climatic variability and anthropogenic changes, floods have been raised lately in several regions worldwide. The resulting impact from floods is often harmful. This can be applied to Saudi Arabia, the country which is known by dry climatic conditions, and it became lately a typical region for such natural hazard. Hence, floods are observed as a yearly disaster with high magnitude of influence. Jeddah, a coastal Saudi city on the Red Sea to the west, has witnessed severe event in November 2009, when flooded water and sediments (torrents) invaded the urban areas and resulted decease of many people and destroyed the infrastructure and civilized zones. The lack of mitigation implements exacerbated the problem. This study implies an assessment of flood hazard risk in Jeddah region. It aims to identify the zones subjected to flood and then inducing the influencing factors at different levels of effect. For this purpose space techniques were utilized, with a focus on IKONOS satellite images, which are characterized by high resolution in identifying terrain features. In addition Geographic Information System (GIS) was also used to support space techniques. Thus, damaged areas and the mechanism of flooding process were recognized. This helps avoiding further urban expansion in areas under flood risk and will aid decision maker to put new strategies for hazard management. 展开更多
关键词 DISASTER flooded areas SPACE TOOLS SAUDI ARABIA
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The Bivalve Mollusc <i>Abra ovata</i>: Role in Succession of Soft Bottom Communities on Newly Flooded Area of the Caspian Sea
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作者 Yuri Ya. Latypov 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2015年第3期239-247,共9页
The succession of an Abra ovata community that had formed at the flooded area in Sulaksky Bay (the Caspian Sea) since the mid-1980s was investigated. The resident species Abra ovata and Cerastoderma glaucum, the pione... The succession of an Abra ovata community that had formed at the flooded area in Sulaksky Bay (the Caspian Sea) since the mid-1980s was investigated. The resident species Abra ovata and Cerastoderma glaucum, the pioneer settlers, were found remaining dominant in the community structure and driving the course of its succession, despite some decrease in settlement density and in the rate of occurrence. It was the tolerance of the Sulaksky pioneer settlers for later colonists (macrophytes, mytilids, crustaceans and other organisms) that determined the development of the first succession stage. The next succession stage in Abra ovata communities of Sulaksky Bay does not quite agree with the pattern typical of solid substrates. On the one hand, the community development supports the tolerance model: the pioneer Abra, in spite of being dominant through all the succession stages, does not oppose the settling of other multiple colonists;on the other hand, it agrees with a facilitation model where the abundance of the original settlers, the grazing species, provokes appearance of sturgeon. 展开更多
关键词 Caspian Sea flooded area SUCCESSION Bottom Community BIVALVE MOLLUSC Abra ovata
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Effect of Flood Peak Discharge Control by a Small Reservoir in an Urbanized Area—Case Study in the Kurabe River Basin, Japan
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作者 Kouzo Ito Manabu Segawa +1 位作者 Hiroshi Takimoto Toshisuke Maruyama 《Open Journal of Modern Hydrology》 2017年第4期314-330,共17页
Recently severe damage of flooding by urbanization was frequently occurred. To prevent this damage, small reservoir was constructed in the urbanized residential area. This paper describes an effect of flood peak disch... Recently severe damage of flooding by urbanization was frequently occurred. To prevent this damage, small reservoir was constructed in the urbanized residential area. This paper describes an effect of flood peak discharge control by a small reservoir (control reservoir) caused by rapidly developed urbanization. Although work for this purpose was conducted, research on the effects of the control reservoir was not conducted until now. This research, conducted by simulation, was a case study in the Kurabe River Basin in the Tedori River Alluvial Fan Area, Japan, based on the precise investigation of the reservoir in the actual field. The study was conducted to determine not only the actual control reservoir capacity for the newly developed residential area but also the ideal capacity for all present residential areas and the largest capacity allowable for a maximum rainfall event that recently occurred. The control reservoir effects between individual blocks and the entire basin area were compared by dividing the test basin into 15 blocks (sub-basins). The results showed that the effects on the capacity per unit area of the residential area in blocks have close relationship with the decreasing ratio of peak discharge in blocks. Consequently, the effects of control reservoir capacity and the limitation were clarified. In the future, control reservoirs should be constructed for all of the already developed residential areas, for example, by utilizing underground car parking lot. The results of this research can contribute to the design of the control reservoir for protection against flooding damage in urbanized areas. 展开更多
关键词 flood Control RESERVOIR DISCHARGE from Urbanized area Unit flood DISCHARGE PEAK DISCHARGE DECREASING Ratio Simulation of Drainage DISCHARGE
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Socio-Economic Implications of Recurrent Flooding on Women Development in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area, Bayelsa State, Niger Delta Area of Nigeria
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作者 Oluyemi Ayorinde Akintoye Abiodun Komomo Eyong +2 位作者 Devine Offiong Effiong Peter Okpe Agada Opaminola Nicholas Digha 《Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection》 2016年第8期33-46,共15页
The main purpose of this study is to identify the socio-economic implications of re-current flooding on women development in southern Ijaw Local Government Area. Generally, flooding may result in socio-economic, ecolo... The main purpose of this study is to identify the socio-economic implications of re-current flooding on women development in southern Ijaw Local Government Area. Generally, flooding may result in socio-economic, ecological and health problems. This study assumes that on flood days the movement of customers and sellers tends to be hindered, thus resulting in the retardation of transactions and the reduction of daily income earned. The study compared the situation of female traders with that of male traders. Both primary and secondary data were used in this study. Primary data were collected using an open-ended questionnaire. A total of 83 questionnaires were randomly distributed to members of four communities, which were selected through stratified random sampling procedures. Also 33 randomly selected women and men respectively, engaged in marketing activities from open and locked-up shops, were sampled to observe the level of their personal income (in Naira), from customers patronage during 3 flood days and 3 non-flood days. Other data and information were obtained through Key Informants Interview (KII), and observations. Hypotheses I and II were tested using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) statistical model. Null hypothesis I (H<sub>0</sub>), which states that “There is no statistically significant difference in the income earned by men and women traders from marketing activities on flood days and non-flood days in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area, Bayelsa State”, is accepted (F-value: 3.8723939, P-value: 2.494E-05), whereas null hypothesis II (H<sub>0</sub>), which states that “There is no statistically significant difference in the income earned by women traders from marketing activities on flood and non-flood days in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area, Bayelsa State, is rejected (F-value: 2.524902, P-value: 0.030069). Thus while there is no significant difference in the earnings of male and female traders on flood and non-flood days, there are significant differences in sales earning among women traders on those days. Factors affecting trading income on flood and non-flood days include accessibility to business premises by customers, ability of male marketers to afford non-easily flooded business premises;and women traders with limited resources often have less suitably drained premises. Reduced total household income can detrimentally affect food affordability, availability, household nutrition, family health and wellbeing. Recommendations highlighting the roles of communities, government and stakeholders in flood management are proffered. 展开更多
关键词 Recurrent flooding Women Development Socio-Economic Activities Niger Delta area
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《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》的再续补(2001—2024年)与特殊区域旱涝趋势
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作者 李威 李潇潇 +6 位作者 姚世博 张强 梁有叶 孔莉莎 赵琳 谢五三 张永宁 《气候变化研究进展》 北大核心 2026年第1期14-27,I0001-I0008,共22页
21世纪以来,全球升温速度显著加快,中国受气候变暖的影响显著且复杂。本文基于前人研究成果,对《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》进行再续补,完成了2001—2024年的全国各站旱涝等级序列和全国旱涝等级空间分布特点分析。在过去的历史序列中... 21世纪以来,全球升温速度显著加快,中国受气候变暖的影响显著且复杂。本文基于前人研究成果,对《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》进行再续补,完成了2001—2024年的全国各站旱涝等级序列和全国旱涝等级空间分布特点分析。在过去的历史序列中,我国西部地区站点分布稀疏,致使东西两区域的站点密度极不均衡,鉴于此本研究增补了西部地区各地级市1961—2024年的旱涝等级序列。对续补序列的应用分析表明,它能准确地反映21世纪以来我国发生的重大旱涝事件,为研究气候变化背景下中国旱涝事件的长期演变规律和周期性特征提供更完整的数据支撑。通过分析研究我国西部地区旱涝等级变化,可明确“西北暖湿化”现象主要发生在以青海和新疆为主的西北地区西部,其结论与当前学界的主流意见一致。通过对比分析南水北调中线工程水网所在区域古今干旱强度的变化,确定了过去555年间(1470—2024年)中线水网区共有27年达到极端干旱的标准,明末崇祯大旱、清末丁戊奇荒、1941—1942年河南大旱均在其列;同时,1961年以来有3年入选极端干旱年,其强度超过1941—1942年河南大旱的平均强度,但不及崇祯大旱和丁戊奇荒发生期间最旱年的等级指数。由此,通过旱涝等级差异对比,实现了跨越时空的对话,从历史的视角去审视现代重大干旱事件的强度。 展开更多
关键词 中国 旱涝等级 气候变暖 特殊区域 重大旱涝事件 历史灾害资料
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皖西大别山区典型小流域洪水事件的雨-水-沙特征及关系研究
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作者 顾李华 常耀文 +4 位作者 郭家瑜 晋娜 王蕴鹏 刘霞 师冬宏 《水土保持研究》 北大核心 2026年第1期11-20,共10页
[目的]洪水事件是流域产流产沙的关键驱动过程,揭示其雨-水-沙动态特征及关系对理解山区小流域泥沙运移具有重要意义。[方法]以皖西大别山区江子河小流域为研究区域,在分析降雨、径流、泥沙特征的基础上,运用冗余分析、多元逐步回归分析... [目的]洪水事件是流域产流产沙的关键驱动过程,揭示其雨-水-沙动态特征及关系对理解山区小流域泥沙运移具有重要意义。[方法]以皖西大别山区江子河小流域为研究区域,在分析降雨、径流、泥沙特征的基础上,运用冗余分析、多元逐步回归分析雨-水-沙间关系,并基于滞回分析揭示小流域泥沙运移的滞后效应。[结果](1)94.55%的洪水事件集中在3—9月,最大降雨、径流与含沙量出现于7月,洪水事件期间径流量是全年平均径流量的4.8倍,产沙模数占全年的90%以上,产沙模数大于50 t/km^(2)的洪水事件(仅占5.5%)贡献了总产沙量的71.2%;(2)径流量是影响产沙量的主要影响因子,解释力达89.7%(p<0.001),降雨量和最大30 min雨强单独影响径流与含沙量,但降雨—径流的联合指标对产沙量的解释力(R^(2)=0.61)优于单一指标。径流与泥沙间的关系更为密切;(3)不同滞回模式的洪水事件在泥沙输移过程中表现出显著差异,顺时针滞回模式占比最高(45.87%),其降雨侵蚀力和径流量显著高于其他模式;逆时针模式的产沙模数最大,复杂型模式的降雨量和径流量最大。[结论]强降雨条件下泥沙的快速响应是流域侵蚀的主要形式,产沙源地主要分布于小流域的中下游沟道区域。 展开更多
关键词 皖西大别山区 洪水事件 冗余分析 江子河小流域 滞回曲线
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洪灾威胁区农户数字鸿沟对生计韧性的影响及机制研究
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作者 张枫琬 王智 +1 位作者 刘邵权 徐定德 《自然灾害学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期46-58,共13页
为提升农户的生计韧性以增强其面临灾害风险时的内生发展动力,该文以四川省洪灾威胁区540户农户为研究对象,利用熵值法从缓冲能力、自组织能力和学习能力三方面搭建农户生计韧性框架,从接入沟、使用沟和能力沟三方面构建数字鸿沟的指标... 为提升农户的生计韧性以增强其面临灾害风险时的内生发展动力,该文以四川省洪灾威胁区540户农户为研究对象,利用熵值法从缓冲能力、自组织能力和学习能力三方面搭建农户生计韧性框架,从接入沟、使用沟和能力沟三方面构建数字鸿沟的指标体系,利用Tobit模型和Bootstrap法实证检验农户数字鸿沟与生计韧性之间的关系和其间的作用机制。结果表明:农户生计韧性总体处于中低水平,并随着生计韧性的提高,数字鸿沟呈梯度减少态势;数字鸿沟会抑制家庭生计韧性,且在不同维度上,数字鸿沟与缓冲能力、自组织能力和学习能力都负向相关。其中,数字鸿沟对学习能力的影响最大,其次是自组织能力,最后是缓冲能力。数字鸿沟对低教育、低收入和山区农户生计韧性的抑制作用更强;数字鸿沟通过削弱农户的信息意识和增强信贷约束,从而阻碍了生计韧性的提升。研究以期遵循生计韧性—弥合数字鸿沟—可持续发展的思路,通过利用数字技术支持帮助家庭实现自我恢复和长效发展。 展开更多
关键词 数字鸿沟 生计韧性 洪灾威胁区 可持续发展
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基于MIKE FLOOD模型的潖江蓄滞洪区调度运用方案研究 被引量:12
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作者 艾小榆 刘霞 +1 位作者 徐辉荣 梁海涛 《水利水电技术》 CSCD 北大核心 2017年第12期125-131,共7页
为保障潖江蓄滞洪区的合理调度运用,保证北江中下游防洪安全,进行了调度方案的研究。基于MIKE FLOOD平台,建立了潖江蓄滞洪区一、二维耦合水动力数学模型,对拟定的五个调度运用方案进行了对比研究,分析了不同方案下石角站洪峰流量及自... 为保障潖江蓄滞洪区的合理调度运用,保证北江中下游防洪安全,进行了调度方案的研究。基于MIKE FLOOD平台,建立了潖江蓄滞洪区一、二维耦合水动力数学模型,对拟定的五个调度运用方案进行了对比研究,分析了不同方案下石角站洪峰流量及自身淹没范围的情况。对比结果表明,适当延迟蓄滞洪区的启用时机,对削减石角站洪峰流量、减少区内淹没损失的效果更为明显。据此确定"当江口圩水位达到22.2 m时,一次启用蓄滞洪区"的方案最优。该方案下,发生P=0.3%、P=0.5%和P=1%洪水时,石角站洪峰流量可分别削减1 150 m^3/s、1 407 m^3/s和1 017 m^3/s,最大淹没面积为86.1 km^2。相关成果可供潖江蓄滞洪区的管理决策参考,也可为其他蓄滞洪区的调度运用方案研究提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 MIKE flood模型 潖江蓄滞洪区 调度方案
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