We propose a model based on the optimal weighted combinational forecasting with constant terms, give formulae of the weights and the average errors as well as a relation of the model and the corresponding model withou...We propose a model based on the optimal weighted combinational forecasting with constant terms, give formulae of the weights and the average errors as well as a relation of the model and the corresponding model without constant terms, and compare these models. Finally an example was given, which showed that the fitting precision has been enhanced.展开更多
Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China.Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future.Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 20...Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China.Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future.Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 2017,this paper presents a weight method of the inverse deviation of fitted value,and a combined forecast based on a residual auto-regression model and Kalman filtering algorithm is used to forecast gas consumption.Our results show that:(1)The combination forecast is of higher precision:the relative errors of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are within the range(–0.08,0.09),(–0.09,0.32)and(–0.03,0.11),respectively.(2)The combination forecast is of greater stability:the variance of relative error of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are 0.002,0.007 and 0.001,respectively.(3)Provided that other conditions are invariant,the predicted value of gas consumption in 2018 is 241.81×10~9 m^3.Compared to other time-series forecasting methods,this combined model is less restrictive,performs well and the result is more credible.展开更多
Central RF frequency is a key parameter of storage rings. This paper presents the measurement of central RF frequency of the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring with the sextupole modulation method. Firstly, the basis of central RF f...Central RF frequency is a key parameter of storage rings. This paper presents the measurement of central RF frequency of the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring with the sextupole modulation method. Firstly, the basis of central RF frequency measurement of the electron storage ring is briefly introduced. Then, the error sources and the optimized measurement method for the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring are discussed. The workflow of a self-compiled Matlab script used in central RF frequency measurement is also described. Finally, the results achieved by using two data processing methods to cross-check each other are shown. The measured value of the central RF frequency demonstrates that the circumference deviation of the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring is less than 1 mm.展开更多
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province(994053200)
文摘We propose a model based on the optimal weighted combinational forecasting with constant terms, give formulae of the weights and the average errors as well as a relation of the model and the corresponding model without constant terms, and compare these models. Finally an example was given, which showed that the fitting precision has been enhanced.
基金Soft Science Research Project in Shanxi Province of China(2017041030-5)Science Fund Projects in North University of China(XJJ2016037)
文摘Consumption of clean energy has been increasing in China.Forecasting gas consumption is important to adjusting the energy consumption structure in the future.Based on historical data of gas consumption from 1980 to 2017,this paper presents a weight method of the inverse deviation of fitted value,and a combined forecast based on a residual auto-regression model and Kalman filtering algorithm is used to forecast gas consumption.Our results show that:(1)The combination forecast is of higher precision:the relative errors of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are within the range(–0.08,0.09),(–0.09,0.32)and(–0.03,0.11),respectively.(2)The combination forecast is of greater stability:the variance of relative error of the residual auto-regressive model,the Kalman filtering algorithm and the combination model are 0.002,0.007 and 0.001,respectively.(3)Provided that other conditions are invariant,the predicted value of gas consumption in 2018 is 241.81×10~9 m^3.Compared to other time-series forecasting methods,this combined model is less restrictive,performs well and the result is more credible.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(11105141,11175173)the upgrade project of Hefei Light Source
文摘Central RF frequency is a key parameter of storage rings. This paper presents the measurement of central RF frequency of the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring with the sextupole modulation method. Firstly, the basis of central RF frequency measurement of the electron storage ring is briefly introduced. Then, the error sources and the optimized measurement method for the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring are discussed. The workflow of a self-compiled Matlab script used in central RF frequency measurement is also described. Finally, the results achieved by using two data processing methods to cross-check each other are shown. The measured value of the central RF frequency demonstrates that the circumference deviation of the HLS-Ⅱ storage ring is less than 1 mm.
