Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency d...Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.展开更多
Acute presentation of vomiting is a very common presenting complaint in the emergency department(ED).While majority of such complaints can be attributed to benign,self-limiting causes such as gastroenteritis,rarer alt...Acute presentation of vomiting is a very common presenting complaint in the emergency department(ED).While majority of such complaints can be attributed to benign,self-limiting causes such as gastroenteritis,rarer alternative diagnoses should be considered depending on the patient's progress after initial treatment.Here,we present a case of gastric volvulus(GV),a rare but potentially fatal condition that mimics gastroenteritis.展开更多
Pesticide poisoning remains a critical public health challenge worldwide.At present,chlorfenapyr,classifi ed by the World Health Organization(WHO)as a moderately toxic insecticide,is increasingly used in agriculture,l...Pesticide poisoning remains a critical public health challenge worldwide.At present,chlorfenapyr,classifi ed by the World Health Organization(WHO)as a moderately toxic insecticide,is increasingly used in agriculture,leading to more poisoning incidents.It has a fatality rate as high as 76%after poisoning.[1]Here,we report a successful treatment of a patient with mixed pesticide poisoning caused by lethaldose emamectin benzoate(EB)and chlorfenapyr in the Department of Critical Care Medicine,Yangzhou Hongquan Hospital.展开更多
In recent years, road accident fatalities in Nigeria have continued to be on the increase. Thus, urgent attention is needed to reduce or eliminate road accidents fatalities. To achieve this goal, the cumulative sum (C...In recent years, road accident fatalities in Nigeria have continued to be on the increase. Thus, urgent attention is needed to reduce or eliminate road accidents fatalities. To achieve this goal, the cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart scheme was designed for monitoring the road accident fatalities using the recorded occurrence of road accident fatalities in a state in the western part of Nigeria. The designed Cusum detects the period of the years when the highest occurrence of road accident fatalities occurred. These periods were observed to be festive periods such as Christmas, Easter, Eid-el- Kabir, and Eid-el-Moluod. Therefore, the festive periods of the year should be used as benchmark by road managers as periods where more attention or precaution measure should be put in place on the roads to drastically reduce or eliminate high occurrence of road accident fatalities. The designed Cusum control chart can be adapted for other states in the country and also for the larger society for detecting the periods when the rate of death as a result of road accidents was prevalent.展开更多
It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatal...It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatalities recorded in coal mines over the period 1985-2016 in the State of Queensland as a function of thermal coal price variation.The study finds that the relationship between fatalities and coal prices is not linear.One to two fatalities occur in most years independent of the thermal coal price.When the price of coal falls below AUD 55/tonne(non-inflation adjusted),the likelihood of an incident involving multiple fatalities increases.The probability can be estimated at 2 in 18 events(equivalent to 11%).This paper postulates that in difficult economic times,mining companies react by downsizing direct employees.If not carefully managed,this can result in loss of knowledge around safety systems,and reduced effectiveness of safety supervision.Because of labour cost advantages,some jobs previously undertaken by direct employees will be replaced by contractors.Increased contractor numbers contribute to increased risk of fatalities occurring,as contractors are over-represented in accident categories involving vehicle accidents,tire handling and crushing incidents.Mine inspectorates,mining,and mining contractor companies need to be especially vigilant to enforce health and safety management systems during periods of low coal prices.展开更多
Background: Any healthcare facility must be prepared to handle a dramatic increase in deaths that can be produced by a catastrophic disaster. A mass fatality incident (MFI) will significantly increase the usual number...Background: Any healthcare facility must be prepared to handle a dramatic increase in deaths that can be produced by a catastrophic disaster. A mass fatality incident (MFI) will significantly increase the usual number of deaths that hospitals or forensic science services can manage on a daily basis. A survey was conducted to assess the hospital emergency department level of preparedness to deal with an MFI. Objective: To examine healthcare facilities level of preparedness for an MFI and morgue capacity. Methods: A total of 39 out of a sample of 44 hospitals participated in the study. Seven questionnaires were administered to explore: hospital general characteristics;emergency plans;equipment and infrastructure;collaborative agreements;personnel trainings;emergency communications;laboratory facilities;treatment protocols;security;and, epidemiologic surveillance. Results: Three-fourths (79.5%) of the healthcare facilities reported having a morgue, their average storage capacity was of three bodies. More than two-thirds (66.7%) of the institutions stated that they could not increase their morgue’s capacity. Most installations without a morgue do not possess an agreement with any other institution for the management of bodies. Hospitals have a very limited number of body bags utilized for the handling and transport of bodies. Conclusion: Most of healthcare facilities have morgues, but there are limitations with the current capacity and the lack of resources to increase their capacity in case of a disaster. Management of an MFI must be part of every hospital’s emergency plan, and must include collaborative agreements with forensic authorities, emergency management and public health agencies, and the community.展开更多
Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards worldwide.While rainfall is the primary trigger of floods,human activities and climate change can exacerbate the impacts of floods and lead to more significant eco...Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards worldwide.While rainfall is the primary trigger of floods,human activities and climate change can exacerbate the impacts of floods and lead to more significant economic and social consequences.In this research,fluvial flood fatalities in the 1951–2020 period have been studied,analyzing the information reported in the Emergency Database(EM-DAT).The EM-DAT data were classified into five categories in terms of the number of events and fatalities connected with riverine floods,considering only events that caused more than 10 fatalities.The results show that the severity of flood-related fatalities is not equally distributed worldwide,but presents specific geographical patterns.The flood fatality coefficient,which represents the ratio between the total number of fatalities and the number of flood events,calculated for different countries,identified that the Southern,Eastern,and South-Eastern regions of Asia have the deadliest floods in the world.The number of flood events has been increasing since 1951 and peaked in 2007,following a relative decline since then.Though,the resulting fatalities do not follow a statistically significant trend.An analysis of the number of flood events in different decades shows that the 2001–2010 decade saw the highest number of events,which corresponds to the largest precipitation anomaly in the world.The lethality of riverine floods decreased over time,from 412 per flood in 1951–1960 to 67 in the 2011–2020 decade.This declining trend is probably a consequence of a more resilient environment and better risk reduction strategies.Based on the presented data and using regression analysis,relationships between flood fatalities and the number of flood events with population density and gross domestic product are developed and discussed.展开更多
目的分析1950—2020年中国肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)流行趋势及发病周期性,为科学防治HFRS提供依据。方法自公共卫生科学数据中心收集全国及各省(自治区、直辖市)HFRS发病及死亡数据。将31个省(自治...目的分析1950—2020年中国肾综合征出血热(hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome,HFRS)流行趋势及发病周期性,为科学防治HFRS提供依据。方法自公共卫生科学数据中心收集全国及各省(自治区、直辖市)HFRS发病及死亡数据。将31个省(自治区、直辖市)划分为东北、华北、华东、华中、华南、西南、西北7个片区,采用Joinpoint回归分析全国及各地区发病与死亡趋势;采用小波分析全国及各地区发病周期性。结果1950—2020年全国共报告HFRS 1684077例,死亡48390例,平均发病率2.34/10万(95%CI:2.33/10万~2.34/10万),平均病死率28.73‰(95%CI:28.48‰~28.99‰)。发病率居前3位的依次为陕西省(8.14/10万)、黑龙江省(7.54/10万)、山东省(7.25/10万);病死率居前3位的依次为新疆维吾尔自治区(238.53‰)、宁夏回族自治区(100.00‰)、上海市(62.21‰)。Joinpoint回归显示,1950年以来全国HFRS发病总体呈上升趋势(AAPC=4.52%,95%CI:2.28%~6.81%)。全国HFRS流行呈单峰,1986年达到发病最高峰(11.06/10万),随后下降;至2009年后维持在较低发病水平,下降趋势无统计学意义(t=-0.651,P=0.518)。2000年后华南HFRS呈上升趋势;其他地区总体均呈下降趋势。1950年以来全国HFRS病死率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-3.32%,95%CI:-4.66%~-1.96%)。HFRS发病具有明显周期性,华北15.22年1个流行周期,西南7.22年1个流行周期,全国及其他地区均为10~11年1个流行周期(P<0.05)。结论随着综合措施的实施,HFRS发病率与病死率均下降。2000年后不同地区HFRS流行趋势出现新的变化,今后应持续监测,识别新的特征,指导HFRS科学防治。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,grant number U2039207).
文摘Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.
文摘Acute presentation of vomiting is a very common presenting complaint in the emergency department(ED).While majority of such complaints can be attributed to benign,self-limiting causes such as gastroenteritis,rarer alternative diagnoses should be considered depending on the patient's progress after initial treatment.Here,we present a case of gastric volvulus(GV),a rare but potentially fatal condition that mimics gastroenteritis.
文摘Pesticide poisoning remains a critical public health challenge worldwide.At present,chlorfenapyr,classifi ed by the World Health Organization(WHO)as a moderately toxic insecticide,is increasingly used in agriculture,leading to more poisoning incidents.It has a fatality rate as high as 76%after poisoning.[1]Here,we report a successful treatment of a patient with mixed pesticide poisoning caused by lethaldose emamectin benzoate(EB)and chlorfenapyr in the Department of Critical Care Medicine,Yangzhou Hongquan Hospital.
文摘In recent years, road accident fatalities in Nigeria have continued to be on the increase. Thus, urgent attention is needed to reduce or eliminate road accidents fatalities. To achieve this goal, the cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart scheme was designed for monitoring the road accident fatalities using the recorded occurrence of road accident fatalities in a state in the western part of Nigeria. The designed Cusum detects the period of the years when the highest occurrence of road accident fatalities occurred. These periods were observed to be festive periods such as Christmas, Easter, Eid-el- Kabir, and Eid-el-Moluod. Therefore, the festive periods of the year should be used as benchmark by road managers as periods where more attention or precaution measure should be put in place on the roads to drastically reduce or eliminate high occurrence of road accident fatalities. The designed Cusum control chart can be adapted for other states in the country and also for the larger society for detecting the periods when the rate of death as a result of road accidents was prevalent.
文摘It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatalities recorded in coal mines over the period 1985-2016 in the State of Queensland as a function of thermal coal price variation.The study finds that the relationship between fatalities and coal prices is not linear.One to two fatalities occur in most years independent of the thermal coal price.When the price of coal falls below AUD 55/tonne(non-inflation adjusted),the likelihood of an incident involving multiple fatalities increases.The probability can be estimated at 2 in 18 events(equivalent to 11%).This paper postulates that in difficult economic times,mining companies react by downsizing direct employees.If not carefully managed,this can result in loss of knowledge around safety systems,and reduced effectiveness of safety supervision.Because of labour cost advantages,some jobs previously undertaken by direct employees will be replaced by contractors.Increased contractor numbers contribute to increased risk of fatalities occurring,as contractors are over-represented in accident categories involving vehicle accidents,tire handling and crushing incidents.Mine inspectorates,mining,and mining contractor companies need to be especially vigilant to enforce health and safety management systems during periods of low coal prices.
文摘Background: Any healthcare facility must be prepared to handle a dramatic increase in deaths that can be produced by a catastrophic disaster. A mass fatality incident (MFI) will significantly increase the usual number of deaths that hospitals or forensic science services can manage on a daily basis. A survey was conducted to assess the hospital emergency department level of preparedness to deal with an MFI. Objective: To examine healthcare facilities level of preparedness for an MFI and morgue capacity. Methods: A total of 39 out of a sample of 44 hospitals participated in the study. Seven questionnaires were administered to explore: hospital general characteristics;emergency plans;equipment and infrastructure;collaborative agreements;personnel trainings;emergency communications;laboratory facilities;treatment protocols;security;and, epidemiologic surveillance. Results: Three-fourths (79.5%) of the healthcare facilities reported having a morgue, their average storage capacity was of three bodies. More than two-thirds (66.7%) of the institutions stated that they could not increase their morgue’s capacity. Most installations without a morgue do not possess an agreement with any other institution for the management of bodies. Hospitals have a very limited number of body bags utilized for the handling and transport of bodies. Conclusion: Most of healthcare facilities have morgues, but there are limitations with the current capacity and the lack of resources to increase their capacity in case of a disaster. Management of an MFI must be part of every hospital’s emergency plan, and must include collaborative agreements with forensic authorities, emergency management and public health agencies, and the community.
基金Polish Ministry of Education and Science for the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences.
文摘Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards worldwide.While rainfall is the primary trigger of floods,human activities and climate change can exacerbate the impacts of floods and lead to more significant economic and social consequences.In this research,fluvial flood fatalities in the 1951–2020 period have been studied,analyzing the information reported in the Emergency Database(EM-DAT).The EM-DAT data were classified into five categories in terms of the number of events and fatalities connected with riverine floods,considering only events that caused more than 10 fatalities.The results show that the severity of flood-related fatalities is not equally distributed worldwide,but presents specific geographical patterns.The flood fatality coefficient,which represents the ratio between the total number of fatalities and the number of flood events,calculated for different countries,identified that the Southern,Eastern,and South-Eastern regions of Asia have the deadliest floods in the world.The number of flood events has been increasing since 1951 and peaked in 2007,following a relative decline since then.Though,the resulting fatalities do not follow a statistically significant trend.An analysis of the number of flood events in different decades shows that the 2001–2010 decade saw the highest number of events,which corresponds to the largest precipitation anomaly in the world.The lethality of riverine floods decreased over time,from 412 per flood in 1951–1960 to 67 in the 2011–2020 decade.This declining trend is probably a consequence of a more resilient environment and better risk reduction strategies.Based on the presented data and using regression analysis,relationships between flood fatalities and the number of flood events with population density and gross domestic product are developed and discussed.
