The case–cohort design has been widely used to reduce the cost of covariate measurements in large cohort studies.In this paper,we study the high-dimensional accelerated failure time(AFT)model under the case–cohort d...The case–cohort design has been widely used to reduce the cost of covariate measurements in large cohort studies.In this paper,we study the high-dimensional accelerated failure time(AFT)model under the case–cohort design.Based on?0-regularization and a newly defined weight function,we propose a weighted least squares procedure for variable selection and parameter estimation.Computationally,we develop a support detection and root finding(SDAR)algorithm,where the support is first determined based on the primal and dual information,then the estimator is obtained by solving the weighted least squares problem restricted to the estimated support.We show the proposed algorithm is essentially one Newton-type algorithm,thus it is more efficient and stable compared with other regularized methods.Theoretically,we establish a sharp error bound for the solution sequences generated from the proposed method.Furthermore,we propose an adaptive version of the proposed SDAR algorithm,which determines the support size of the estimated coefficient in a data-driven manner.Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed procedures,especially for the computational efficiency.As an illustration,we apply the proposed method to a malignant breast tumor gene expression data.展开更多
The frequent occurrence of rockburst and the difficulty in predicting were considered in deep engineering and underground engineering.In this work,laboratory experiments on rockburst under true triaxial conditions wer...The frequent occurrence of rockburst and the difficulty in predicting were considered in deep engineering and underground engineering.In this work,laboratory experiments on rockburst under true triaxial conditions were carried out with granite samples.Combined with the deformation characteristics of granite,acoustic emission(AE)technology was well applied in revealing the evolution law of micro-cracks in the process of rockburst.Based on the comprehensive analysis of acoustic emission parameters such as impact,ringing and energy,the phased characteristics of crack propagation and damage evolution in granite were obtained,which were consistent with the stages of rock deformation and failure.Subsequently,based on the critical point theory,the accelerated release characteristics of acoustic emission energy during rockburst were analyzed.Based on the damage theory,the damage evolution model of rock under different loading conditions was proposed,and the prediction interval of rock failure time was ascertained concurrently.Finally,regarding damage as an intermediate variable,the synergetic prediction model of rock failure time was constructed.The feasibility and validity of model were verified.展开更多
The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calcula...The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calculated from the phenomenological models to deviate from the actual SFT.Currently,very limited study has been conducted on how to evaluate the effect of such uncertainties on SFT prediction.In this paper,a comprehensive slope failure database was compiled.A Bayesian machine learning(BML)-based method was developed to learn the model and observational uncertainties involved in SFT prediction,through which the probabilistic distribution of the SFT can be obtained.This method was illustrated in detail with an example.Verification studies show that the BML-based method is superior to the traditional inverse velocity method(INVM)and the maximum likelihood method for predicting SFT.The proposed method in this study provides an effective tool for SFT prediction.展开更多
Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a n...Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.展开更多
Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Meth...Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.展开更多
Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations ...Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations are derived analogous to generalized estimating equation method.Under certain regular conditions,the resultant estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically normal.Furthermore,we also establish the weak convergence of estimators for the baseline cumulative hazard functions.展开更多
An analytical moment-based method for calculating structuralfirst failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior is proposed. In the method, a power series that constants can be obtained from response moments （...An analytical moment-based method for calculating structuralfirst failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior is proposed. In the method, a power series that constants can be obtained from response moments （skewness, kurtosis, etc.） is used firstly to map a non-Gaussian structural response into a standard Gaussian process, then mean up-crossing rates, mean clump size and the initial passage probability of a critical barrier level by the original structural response are estimated, and finally, the formula for calculating first failure times is established on the assur^ption that corrected up-crossing rates are independent. An analysis of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom dynamical system excited by a Gaussian model of load not only demonstrates the usage of the proposed method but also shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method by comparisons between the present method and other methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and the traditional Gaussian model.展开更多
In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property...In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.展开更多
Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-spec...Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-specific failure rates in HIV/AIDS progression. While the Exponential model offers simplicity with a constant hazard rate, it often fails to accommodate the complexities of dynamic disease progression. In contrast, the Weibull model provides flexibility by allowing hazard rates to vary over time. Both models are evaluated within the frameworks of the Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, incorporating critical covariates such as age, gender, CD4 count, and ART status. Statistical evaluation metrics, including Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log-likelihood, and Pseudo-R2, were employed to assess model performance across diverse patient subgroups. Results indicate that the Weibull model consistently outperforms the Exponential model in dynamic scenarios, such as younger patients and those with co-infections, while maintaining robustness in stable contexts. This study highlights the trade-off between flexibility and simplicity in survival modeling, advocating for tailored model selection to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing HIV/AIDS management strategies and advancing survival analysis methodologies.展开更多
This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estim...This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed and in the method,the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring or observation process.Also I-spline functions are used to approximate the unknown functions in the model,and a simulation study is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach and suggests that it works well in practical situations.In addition,an illustrative example is provided.展开更多
Additive hazards model with random effects is proposed for modelling the correlated failure time data when focus is on comparing the failure times within clusters and on estimating the correlation between failure time...Additive hazards model with random effects is proposed for modelling the correlated failure time data when focus is on comparing the failure times within clusters and on estimating the correlation between failure times from the same cluster, as well as the marginal regression parameters. Our model features that, when marginalized over the random effect variable, it still enjoys the structure of the additive hazards model. We develop the estimating equations for inferring the regression parameters. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. Furthermore, the estimator of the baseline hazards function is proposed and its asymptotic properties are also established. We propose a class of diagnostic methods to assess the overall fitting adequacy of the additive hazards model with random effects. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the finite sample behaviors of the proposed estimators in various scenarios. Analysis of the Diabetic Retinopathy Study is provided as an illustration for the proposed method.展开更多
This paper proposes a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for doubly censored data with errors-in-covariates. The authors model the distributions of the unobserved covariates and the regression erro...This paper proposes a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for doubly censored data with errors-in-covariates. The authors model the distributions of the unobserved covariates and the regression errors via the Dirichlet processes. Moreover, the authors extend the Bayesian Lasso approach to our semiparametric model for variable selection. The authors develop the Markov chain Monte Carlo strategies for posterior calculation. Simulation studies are conducted to show the performance of the proposed method. The authors also demonstrate the implementation of the method using analysis of PBC data and ACTG 175 data.展开更多
In the analysis of correlated data, it is ideal to capture the true dependence structure to increase effciency of the estimation. However, for multivariate survival data, this is extremely
Predicting the failure time of unstable slopes is one of the most pivotal issues. In this paper, the inverse square root acceleration(INSRA) method was proposed to estimate the time-of-failure(TOF) of landslides. Four...Predicting the failure time of unstable slopes is one of the most pivotal issues. In this paper, the inverse square root acceleration(INSRA) method was proposed to estimate the time-of-failure(TOF) of landslides. Four collapsed slopes were presented in the three open-pit mines, two of them were probed by ground-based radar, and two of them were obtained from previous scientific papers. The inverse velocity(INV) method and INSRA method were adopted to analyze these four landslides and one slope which had great deformation but did not reach failure. Compared with the traditional INV method, the INSRA method can promote the forecasting effectiveness and has the advantage of higher accuracy.展开更多
Many survival studies record the times to two or more distinct failures oneach subject. The failures may be events of different natures or may be repetitions of the same kindof event. In this article, we consider the ...Many survival studies record the times to two or more distinct failures oneach subject. The failures may be events of different natures or may be repetitions of the same kindof event. In this article, we consider the regression analysis of such multivariate failure timedata under the additive hazards model. Simple weighted estimating functions for the regressionparameters are proposed, and asymptotic distribution theory of the resulting estimators are derived.In addition, a class of generalized Wald and generalized score statistics for hypothesis testingand model selection are presented, and the asymptotic properties of these statistics are examined.展开更多
Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power and water supply, wastewater management, telecommunication, and transportati...Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power and water supply, wastewater management, telecommunication, and transportation facilities. Disruptions in electricity infrastructure have negative impacts on sectors throughout a region, including education, medical services,financial services, and recreation. In this study, we introduced a novel approach to investigate the factors that can be associated with longer restoration time of power service after a hurricane. Considering restoration time as the dependent variable and using a comprehensive set of county-level data, we estimated a generalized accelerated failure time(GAFT) model that accounts for spatial dependence among observations for time to event data. The model fit improved by 12% after considering the effects of spatial correlation in time to event data. Using the GAFT model and Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined:(1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates among different types of power companies—investor-owned power companies, rural and municipal cooperatives;(2) the relationship between the duration of power outage and power system variables;and(3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic attributes. The findings of this study indicate that counties with a higher percentage of customers served by investor-owned electric companies and lower median household income faced power outage for a longer time. This study identified the key factors to predict restoration time of hurricane-induced power outages, allowing disaster management agencies to adopt strategies required for restoration process.展开更多
The survival analysis literature has always lagged behind the categorical data literature in developing methods to analyze clustered or multivariate data. While estimators based on
We thank all the discussants for their interesting and stimulating contributions. They have touched various aspects that have not been considered by the original articles.
Radar slope monitoring is now widely used across the world, for example, the slope stability radar(SSR)and the movement and surveying radar(MSR) are currently in use in many mines around the world.However, to fully re...Radar slope monitoring is now widely used across the world, for example, the slope stability radar(SSR)and the movement and surveying radar(MSR) are currently in use in many mines around the world.However, to fully realize the effectiveness of this radar in notifying mine personnel of an impending slope failure, a method that can confidently predict the time of failure is necessary. The model developed in this study is based on the inverse velocity method pioneered by Fukuzono in 1985. The model named the slope failure prediction model(SFPM) was validated with the displacement data from two slope failures monitored with the MSR. The model was found to be very effective in predicting the time to failure while providing adequate evacuation time once the progressive displacement stage is reached.展开更多
Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant fa...Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant failure intensity in each test phase,which inevitably limits the scope of the application.To address this problem,we propose two new models considering timevarying failure intensity in each stage.The proposed models borrow the idea from the accelerated failure-time models.It is assumed that time between failures follow the log-location-scale distribution and the scale parameters in each phase do not change,which forms the basis for integrating the data from all test stages.For the test-find-test scenario,an improvement factor is introduced to construct the relationship between two successive location parameters.Whereas for the test-fix-test scenario,the instantaneous cumulative time between failures is assumed to be consistent with Duane model and derive the formulation of location parameter.Likelihood ratio test is further utilized to test whether the assumption of constant failure intensity in each phase is suitable.Several applications with real reliability growth data show that the assumptions are reasonable and the proposed models outperform the existing models.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12371274,12271459)National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.24CTJ036)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(Grant No.2021CFB502)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law(Grant No.2722024BY024)。
文摘The case–cohort design has been widely used to reduce the cost of covariate measurements in large cohort studies.In this paper,we study the high-dimensional accelerated failure time(AFT)model under the case–cohort design.Based on?0-regularization and a newly defined weight function,we propose a weighted least squares procedure for variable selection and parameter estimation.Computationally,we develop a support detection and root finding(SDAR)algorithm,where the support is first determined based on the primal and dual information,then the estimator is obtained by solving the weighted least squares problem restricted to the estimated support.We show the proposed algorithm is essentially one Newton-type algorithm,thus it is more efficient and stable compared with other regularized methods.Theoretically,we establish a sharp error bound for the solution sequences generated from the proposed method.Furthermore,we propose an adaptive version of the proposed SDAR algorithm,which determines the support size of the estimated coefficient in a data-driven manner.Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed procedures,especially for the computational efficiency.As an illustration,we apply the proposed method to a malignant breast tumor gene expression data.
基金Projects(52074294,51574246,51674008)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2017YFC0804201,2017YFC0603000)supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaProject(2011QZ01)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China。
文摘The frequent occurrence of rockburst and the difficulty in predicting were considered in deep engineering and underground engineering.In this work,laboratory experiments on rockburst under true triaxial conditions were carried out with granite samples.Combined with the deformation characteristics of granite,acoustic emission(AE)technology was well applied in revealing the evolution law of micro-cracks in the process of rockburst.Based on the comprehensive analysis of acoustic emission parameters such as impact,ringing and energy,the phased characteristics of crack propagation and damage evolution in granite were obtained,which were consistent with the stages of rock deformation and failure.Subsequently,based on the critical point theory,the accelerated release characteristics of acoustic emission energy during rockburst were analyzed.Based on the damage theory,the damage evolution model of rock under different loading conditions was proposed,and the prediction interval of rock failure time was ascertained concurrently.Finally,regarding damage as an intermediate variable,the synergetic prediction model of rock failure time was constructed.The feasibility and validity of model were verified.
基金substantially supported by the Shuguang Program from Shanghai Education Development FoundationShanghai Municipal Education Commission, China (Grant No. 19SG19)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42072302)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China
文摘The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calculated from the phenomenological models to deviate from the actual SFT.Currently,very limited study has been conducted on how to evaluate the effect of such uncertainties on SFT prediction.In this paper,a comprehensive slope failure database was compiled.A Bayesian machine learning(BML)-based method was developed to learn the model and observational uncertainties involved in SFT prediction,through which the probabilistic distribution of the SFT can be obtained.This method was illustrated in detail with an example.Verification studies show that the BML-based method is superior to the traditional inverse velocity method(INVM)and the maximum likelihood method for predicting SFT.The proposed method in this study provides an effective tool for SFT prediction.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61703410,61873175,62073336,61873273,61773386,61922089)。
文摘Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.
文摘Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (11171263)
文摘Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations are derived analogous to generalized estimating equation method.Under certain regular conditions,the resultant estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically normal.Furthermore,we also establish the weak convergence of estimators for the baseline cumulative hazard functions.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Of China (No.50478017)
文摘An analytical moment-based method for calculating structuralfirst failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior is proposed. In the method, a power series that constants can be obtained from response moments （skewness, kurtosis, etc.） is used firstly to map a non-Gaussian structural response into a standard Gaussian process, then mean up-crossing rates, mean clump size and the initial passage probability of a critical barrier level by the original structural response are estimated, and finally, the formula for calculating first failure times is established on the assur^ption that corrected up-crossing rates are independent. An analysis of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom dynamical system excited by a Gaussian model of load not only demonstrates the usage of the proposed method but also shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method by comparisons between the present method and other methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and the traditional Gaussian model.
文摘In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.
文摘Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-specific failure rates in HIV/AIDS progression. While the Exponential model offers simplicity with a constant hazard rate, it often fails to accommodate the complexities of dynamic disease progression. In contrast, the Weibull model provides flexibility by allowing hazard rates to vary over time. Both models are evaluated within the frameworks of the Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, incorporating critical covariates such as age, gender, CD4 count, and ART status. Statistical evaluation metrics, including Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log-likelihood, and Pseudo-R2, were employed to assess model performance across diverse patient subgroups. Results indicate that the Weibull model consistently outperforms the Exponential model in dynamic scenarios, such as younger patients and those with co-infections, while maintaining robustness in stable contexts. This study highlights the trade-off between flexibility and simplicity in survival modeling, advocating for tailored model selection to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing HIV/AIDS management strategies and advancing survival analysis methodologies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11671168the Science and Technology Developing Plan of Jilin Province under Grant No.20200201258JC。
文摘This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed and in the method,the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring or observation process.Also I-spline functions are used to approximate the unknown functions in the model,and a simulation study is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach and suggests that it works well in practical situations.In addition,an illustrative example is provided.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11171263,11201350 and 11371299)Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education of China(Grant Nos.20110141110004 and 20110141120004)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
文摘Additive hazards model with random effects is proposed for modelling the correlated failure time data when focus is on comparing the failure times within clusters and on estimating the correlation between failure times from the same cluster, as well as the marginal regression parameters. Our model features that, when marginalized over the random effect variable, it still enjoys the structure of the additive hazards model. We develop the estimating equations for inferring the regression parameters. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. Furthermore, the estimator of the baseline hazards function is proposed and its asymptotic properties are also established. We propose a class of diagnostic methods to assess the overall fitting adequacy of the additive hazards model with random effects. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the finite sample behaviors of the proposed estimators in various scenarios. Analysis of the Diabetic Retinopathy Study is provided as an illustration for the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11171007/A011103,11171230,and 11471024
文摘This paper proposes a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for doubly censored data with errors-in-covariates. The authors model the distributions of the unobserved covariates and the regression errors via the Dirichlet processes. Moreover, the authors extend the Bayesian Lasso approach to our semiparametric model for variable selection. The authors develop the Markov chain Monte Carlo strategies for posterior calculation. Simulation studies are conducted to show the performance of the proposed method. The authors also demonstrate the implementation of the method using analysis of PBC data and ACTG 175 data.
文摘In the analysis of correlated data, it is ideal to capture the true dependence structure to increase effciency of the estimation. However, for multivariate survival data, this is extremely
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.51839009 and 51679017)。
文摘Predicting the failure time of unstable slopes is one of the most pivotal issues. In this paper, the inverse square root acceleration(INSRA) method was proposed to estimate the time-of-failure(TOF) of landslides. Four collapsed slopes were presented in the three open-pit mines, two of them were probed by ground-based radar, and two of them were obtained from previous scientific papers. The inverse velocity(INV) method and INSRA method were adopted to analyze these four landslides and one slope which had great deformation but did not reach failure. Compared with the traditional INV method, the INSRA method can promote the forecasting effectiveness and has the advantage of higher accuracy.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 10471140)Science Foundation of HUBEI (98j081)Scientific Research Great Project of Education Department of HUBEI (2002Z04001).supported by grants from Research Grants Council of
文摘Many survival studies record the times to two or more distinct failures oneach subject. The failures may be events of different natures or may be repetitions of the same kindof event. In this article, we consider the regression analysis of such multivariate failure timedata under the additive hazards model. Simple weighted estimating functions for the regressionparameters are proposed, and asymptotic distribution theory of the resulting estimators are derived.In addition, a class of generalized Wald and generalized score statistics for hypothesis testingand model selection are presented, and the asymptotic properties of these statistics are examined.
基金the U.S.National Science Foundation for the Grant CMMI-1832578 to support the research presented in this article。
文摘Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power and water supply, wastewater management, telecommunication, and transportation facilities. Disruptions in electricity infrastructure have negative impacts on sectors throughout a region, including education, medical services,financial services, and recreation. In this study, we introduced a novel approach to investigate the factors that can be associated with longer restoration time of power service after a hurricane. Considering restoration time as the dependent variable and using a comprehensive set of county-level data, we estimated a generalized accelerated failure time(GAFT) model that accounts for spatial dependence among observations for time to event data. The model fit improved by 12% after considering the effects of spatial correlation in time to event data. Using the GAFT model and Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined:(1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates among different types of power companies—investor-owned power companies, rural and municipal cooperatives;(2) the relationship between the duration of power outage and power system variables;and(3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic attributes. The findings of this study indicate that counties with a higher percentage of customers served by investor-owned electric companies and lower median household income faced power outage for a longer time. This study identified the key factors to predict restoration time of hurricane-induced power outages, allowing disaster management agencies to adopt strategies required for restoration process.
文摘The survival analysis literature has always lagged behind the categorical data literature in developing methods to analyze clustered or multivariate data. While estimators based on
文摘We thank all the discussants for their interesting and stimulating contributions. They have touched various aspects that have not been considered by the original articles.
基金supported by the Centennial Trust Fund, School of Mining Engineering, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa
文摘Radar slope monitoring is now widely used across the world, for example, the slope stability radar(SSR)and the movement and surveying radar(MSR) are currently in use in many mines around the world.However, to fully realize the effectiveness of this radar in notifying mine personnel of an impending slope failure, a method that can confidently predict the time of failure is necessary. The model developed in this study is based on the inverse velocity method pioneered by Fukuzono in 1985. The model named the slope failure prediction model(SFPM) was validated with the displacement data from two slope failures monitored with the MSR. The model was found to be very effective in predicting the time to failure while providing adequate evacuation time once the progressive displacement stage is reached.
基金co-supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52075019)the Academic Excellence Foundation of BUAA for PhD Students,China。
文摘Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant failure intensity in each test phase,which inevitably limits the scope of the application.To address this problem,we propose two new models considering timevarying failure intensity in each stage.The proposed models borrow the idea from the accelerated failure-time models.It is assumed that time between failures follow the log-location-scale distribution and the scale parameters in each phase do not change,which forms the basis for integrating the data from all test stages.For the test-find-test scenario,an improvement factor is introduced to construct the relationship between two successive location parameters.Whereas for the test-fix-test scenario,the instantaneous cumulative time between failures is assumed to be consistent with Duane model and derive the formulation of location parameter.Likelihood ratio test is further utilized to test whether the assumption of constant failure intensity in each phase is suitable.Several applications with real reliability growth data show that the assumptions are reasonable and the proposed models outperform the existing models.
