Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synt...Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.展开更多
Forestry has played an important role in hazard mitigation associated with debris flows.Most forest mitigation measures refer to the experience of soil and water conservation,which disregard the destructive effect of ...Forestry has played an important role in hazard mitigation associated with debris flows.Most forest mitigation measures refer to the experience of soil and water conservation,which disregard the destructive effect of debris flows,causing potentially serious consequences.Determination of the effect of a forest on reducing debris-flow velocity and even stopping debris flows requires distinguishing between when the debris flow will destroy the forest and when the trees will withstand the debris-flow impact force.In this paper,we summarized two impact failure models of a single tree: stem breakage and overturning.The influences of different tree sizes characteristics(stem base diameter,tree weight,and root failure radius) and debris-flow characteristics(density,velocity,flow depth,and boulder diameter) on tree failure were analyzed.The observations obtained from the model adopted in this study show that trees are more prone to stem breakage than overturning.With an increase in tree size,the ability to resist stem breakage and overturning increases.Debris-flow density influences the critical failure conditions of trees substantially less than the debrisflow velocity,depth,and boulder diameter.The application conditions of forests in debris-flow hazard mitigation were proposed based on the analysis of the model results.The proposed models were applied in the Xiajijiehaizi Gully as a case study,and the results explain the destruction of trees in the forest dispersing zone.This work provides references for implementing forest measures for debris-flow hazard mitigation.展开更多
It is urgently needed to describe the structural collapse process under extreme conditions to survive people.For reinforced concrete structures it is still a difficulty to describe the failure of reinforced concrete m...It is urgently needed to describe the structural collapse process under extreme conditions to survive people.For reinforced concrete structures it is still a difficulty to describe the failure of reinforced concrete members under complex internal force combination,such as under axial forces,bending moment,shear forces, and torsion working together.In this paper,based on the traditional Nielsen model,a new unified failure model on reinforcement evenly distributed concrete members with box section under combined forces is introduced.The advantages of the proposed new model are to consider the dowel actions of reinforcements and reasonably to consider of the shear carrying capacity of concrete,especially when compression stress of concrete is in a high value.Finally,the theoretical results of the new model are compared with a series of experimental results of box section members.The comparison has verified that the new model is more accurate and feasible for the design and calculation of box section members.展开更多
Based on the time-dependent strain cyclic characteristics and fatigue behaviors of SS304 stainless steel under multi-axial cyclic loading at 700 ？ C, and in the frame of unified visoco-plastic cyclic constitutive mod...Based on the time-dependent strain cyclic characteristics and fatigue behaviors of SS304 stainless steel under multi-axial cyclic loading at 700 ？ C, and in the frame of unified visoco-plastic cyclic constitutive model and continuum damage mechanics theory, the damage-coupled multi-axial time-dependent constitutive model and fatigue failure model were proposed. In the model, the evolution equation of damage was introduced in and the time-dependent effects, e.g. holding time, loading rate, were taken into account. The model was applied to the simulation of whole-life cyclic deformation behaviors and prediction of LCF life for SS304 stainless steel in multiaxial time-dependent low cycle fatigue tests. It is shown that the simulated results agree well with experimental ones.展开更多
The brittleness generation mechanism of high strength lightweight aggregate con-crete(HSLWAC) was presented, and it was indicated that lightweight aggregate was the vulnerable spot, initiating brittleness. Based on th...The brittleness generation mechanism of high strength lightweight aggregate con-crete(HSLWAC) was presented, and it was indicated that lightweight aggregate was the vulnerable spot, initiating brittleness. Based on the analysis of the brittleness failure by the load-deflection curve, the brittleness presented by HSLWAC was more prominent compared with ordinary lightweight aggregate concrete of the same strength grade. The model of brittleness failure was also established.展开更多
The main goal of this research is to enhance the auditor＇s judgment ability in going concern opinion by applying bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. Data for this research have been collected thr...The main goal of this research is to enhance the auditor＇s judgment ability in going concern opinion by applying bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. Data for this research have been collected through questionnaires. The statistical population consists of auditors who are members of Iranian Association of Certified Public Accountants （IACPA）. The research results reflect that： （1） Auditors do not use statistical techniques for assessing going concern as an analytical procedure; （2） Auditors do not use these techniques as a tool to decrease the bias of judgments in assessing the going concern assumption; （3） Auditors do not use statistical techniques to assess audit risk in the planning stage; （4） Auditors do not use statistical techniques to assess audit risk in the final stage. Furthermore this research shows that auditors believe that the ＂standard concerning usage of analytical procedures needs more clarification＂ and ＂statistical bankruptcy predication models can help auditors in the planning stage＂. The other goal of this research is to show different auditor＇s judgments in assessing the going concern opinion with and without applying the bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. The result shows that the judgment of auditors toward the going concern assumption has improved by using statistical bankruptcy predication models.展开更多
Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of t...Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of the shear carrying capacity of concrete at the member failure surface.In the unified failure model,the comparison with the experimental results verified this adjustment.Nevertheless,it should be pointed out that the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at member failure surface for the reinforced concrete members in the unified failure model is a fixed adjustment constant for all experiment data,which is basically determined by curve fitting.However,the adjustment factor should vary with the normal stress at the member failure surface.In this paper,an advanced theoretical model is introduced,in which the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at failure surface is a variable related to the normal stress at failure surface.Furthermore,the advanced unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section member can still be expressed in a simple form.Finally,the comparison with several groups of test data has verified that this advanced model is more accurate and feasible to be used in design.展开更多
The performance of polypropylene film determines the reliability of capacitors.This paper studies the change of insulation characteristics of the insulation dielectric polypropylene of high-voltage capacitors during t...The performance of polypropylene film determines the reliability of capacitors.This paper studies the change of insulation characteristics of the insulation dielectric polypropylene of high-voltage capacitors during the long-term operation process.Moreover,the correction of the insulation failure model of polypropylene media is implemented.Some conclusions are drawn from a series of experiments.The breakdown strength of the insulation dielectrics decreases as the withstand time rises,with amaximum decrease of 37.91%compared to the polypropylene sample without withstand voltage.As the electric field increases from−20 to−100 kV/mm,the total amount of space charge,the trap energy level and the trap density inside the polypropylene increase by 524.15%,18.99%and 773.36%,respectively.In the capacitor simulation model,the electric field in the capacitor increases by 19.62%after presetting space charge relative to the nonspace charge.The experimental data are substituted into the inverse power model,and the trap parameters are used to modify the model.The results show that the ageing state of the polypropylene has a negative exponential relationship with the trap parameters.This paper provides an important reference for the study of the failure mechanism of polypropylene in high-voltage capacitors and the assessment of polypropylene ageing state.展开更多
Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-spec...Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-specific failure rates in HIV/AIDS progression. While the Exponential model offers simplicity with a constant hazard rate, it often fails to accommodate the complexities of dynamic disease progression. In contrast, the Weibull model provides flexibility by allowing hazard rates to vary over time. Both models are evaluated within the frameworks of the Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, incorporating critical covariates such as age, gender, CD4 count, and ART status. Statistical evaluation metrics, including Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log-likelihood, and Pseudo-R2, were employed to assess model performance across diverse patient subgroups. Results indicate that the Weibull model consistently outperforms the Exponential model in dynamic scenarios, such as younger patients and those with co-infections, while maintaining robustness in stable contexts. This study highlights the trade-off between flexibility and simplicity in survival modeling, advocating for tailored model selection to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing HIV/AIDS management strategies and advancing survival analysis methodologies.展开更多
The failure types in gear systems vary,with typical ones mainly including pitting,cracking,wear,and broken teeth.Different modeling and stiffness calculation methods have been developed for various gear failure types....The failure types in gear systems vary,with typical ones mainly including pitting,cracking,wear,and broken teeth.Different modeling and stiffness calculation methods have been developed for various gear failure types.A unified method for typical gear failure modeling and stiffness calculation is introduced in this study by considering the deviations in the time-varying meshing stiffness(TVMS)of faulty gears resulting from the use of different methods.Specifically,a gear tooth is discretized into a large number of microelements expressed with a matrix,and unified models of typical gear failures are built by adjusting the values of the matrix microelements.The values and positions of the microelements in the tooth failure model matrix have the same physical meaning as the parameter variables in the potential energy method(PEM),so the matrix-based failure model can be perfectly matched with PEM.Afterward,a unified method for TVMS is established.Modeling of healthy and faulty gears with pitting,wear,crack,and broken tooth is performed with the matrix equation,and the corresponding TVMS values are calculated by incorporating the matrix models with PEM.On the basis of the results,the mechanism of typical fault types that affect TVMS is analyzed,and the conclusions are verified through the finite element method.The developed unified method is a promising technique for studying the dynamic response characteristics of gear systems with different failure types because of its superiority in eliminating stiffness deviations.展开更多
The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR...The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.展开更多
A new unified macro- and micro-mechanics failure analysis method for composite structures was developed in order to take the effects of composite micro structure into consideration. In this method, the macro stress di...A new unified macro- and micro-mechanics failure analysis method for composite structures was developed in order to take the effects of composite micro structure into consideration. In this method, the macro stress distribution of composite structure was calculated by commercial finite element analysis software. According to the macro stress distribution, the damage point was searched and the micro-stress distribution was calculated by reformulated finite-volume direct averaging micromechanics （FVDAM）, which was a multi-scale finite element method for composite. The micro structure failure modes were estimated with the failure strength of constituents. A unidirectional composite plate with a circular hole in the center under two kinds of loads was analyzed with the traditional macro-mechanical failure analysis method and the unified macro- and micro-mechanics failure analysis method. The results obtained by the two methods are consistent, which show this new method＇s accuracy and efficiency.展开更多
The formability of the material determines the amount of available deformation before failure and thus is important for the production of various structural components in industries. The workability of materiMs is com...The formability of the material determines the amount of available deformation before failure and thus is important for the production of various structural components in industries. The workability of materiMs is commonly evaluated by different forms of failure mod- els during sheet metal forming （SMF） processes. In order to provide a whole picture about the prediction models for SMF failure, necking-related formability and ductile fracture-related forma- bility studies in SMF processes are systematically summarized, the applicability and limitation of each model are highlighted, and the link between forming limit diagram and ductile fracture criterion is pointed out, Conclusions about some critical issues on failure in SMF are made.展开更多
Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combinat...Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combination failure mode that consists of bond failure of an anchorage body and failure of an anchored rock mass.The three-dimensional ultimate pullout capacity of the anchor cables is calculated based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion and variation analysis method.The numerical solution for the curvilinear function in fracture plane is obtained based on the finite difference theory,which more accurately reflects the failure state of the anchor cable,as opposed to that being assumed in advance.The results reveal that relying solely on a single failure mode for UPC calculations has limitations,as changes in parameter values not only directly impact the UPC value but also can alter the failure model and thus the calculation method.展开更多
The test selection and optimization （TSO） can improve the abilities of fault diagnosis, prognosis and health-state evalua- tion for prognostics and health management （PHM） systems. Traditionally, TSO mainly focuse...The test selection and optimization （TSO） can improve the abilities of fault diagnosis, prognosis and health-state evalua- tion for prognostics and health management （PHM） systems. Traditionally, TSO mainly focuses on fault detection and isolation, but they cannot provide an effective guide for the design for testability （DFT） to improve the PHM performance level. To solve the problem, a model of TSO for PHM systems is proposed. Firstly, through integrating the characteristics of fault severity and propa- gation time, and analyzing the test timing and sensitivity, a testability model based on failure evolution mechanism model （FEMM） for PHM systems is built up. This model describes the fault evolution- test dependency using the fault-symptom parameter matrix and symptom parameter-test matrix. Secondly, a novel method of in- herent testability analysis for PHM systems is developed based on the above information. Having completed the analysis, a TSO model, whose objective is to maximize fault trackability and mini- mize the test cost, is proposed through inherent testability analysis results, and an adaptive simulated annealing genetic algorithm （ASAGA） is introduced to solve the TSO problem. Finally, a case of a centrifugal pump system is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. The results show that the proposed technology is important for PHM systems to select and optimize the test set in order to improve their performance level.展开更多
This paper presents three case studies comprising failure mechanisms in phyllite mine slopes at Quadrila- tero Ferrifero, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Numerical modeling techniques were used in this study. Fail- ure...This paper presents three case studies comprising failure mechanisms in phyllite mine slopes at Quadrila- tero Ferrifero, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Numerical modeling techniques were used in this study. Fail- ure mechanisms involving discontinuities sub parallel to the main foliation are very common in these mines. Besides, failure through the rock material has also been observed due to the low strength of phyl- lites in this site. Results of this work permitted to establish unknown geotechnical parameters which have significant influence in failure processes, like the in situ stress field and the discontinuity stiffness.展开更多
This paper focuses on the prediction of the safe autorotation landing operations of a helicopter following engine failure.The autorotation landing procedure is formulated as a nonlinear optimal control problem based o...This paper focuses on the prediction of the safe autorotation landing operations of a helicopter following engine failure.The autorotation landing procedure is formulated as a nonlinear optimal control problem based on an augmented six-degree-of-freedom rigid-body flight dynamic model.First,the cost function and constraints are properly selected.The direct transcription approach is then employed to solve the optimal control problem.For a UH-60 helicopter,the optimal solutions with the rigid-body model are compared with those obtained using a two-dimensional point-mass model.It is found that the optimal solutions using the two different models show reasonably good agreement,and furthermore the optimal solutions using the rigid-body model involve the time histories of angular rates and attitudes,lateral velocity and position,as well as pitch controls.Finally the optimal control formulations with different cost functions are proposed for taking account of 1-s time delay and minimum touchdown speed.The calculated control strategies and trajectories are realistic.展开更多
Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electro...Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.展开更多
In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property...In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.展开更多
In this paper, the fuzzy theory is used to describe the uncertainty in failure definition of composite structures. The concept of structural failure level (SFL) is suggested and a method of evaluation is presented.
文摘Using the characteristic of addition of information quantity and the principle of equivalence of information quantity, this paper derives the general conversion formulae of the formation theory method conversion (synthesis) on the systems consisting of different success failure model units. According to the fundamental method of the unit reliability assessment, the general models of system reliability approximate lower limits are given. Finally, this paper analyses the application of the assessment method by examples, the assessment results are neither conservative nor radical and very satisfactory. The assessment method can be popularized to the systems which have fixed reliability structural models.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41925030)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.XDA23090403)+2 种基金the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the CAS (Grant No.2017426)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51709259)the CAS “Light of West China” Program。
文摘Forestry has played an important role in hazard mitigation associated with debris flows.Most forest mitigation measures refer to the experience of soil and water conservation,which disregard the destructive effect of debris flows,causing potentially serious consequences.Determination of the effect of a forest on reducing debris-flow velocity and even stopping debris flows requires distinguishing between when the debris flow will destroy the forest and when the trees will withstand the debris-flow impact force.In this paper,we summarized two impact failure models of a single tree: stem breakage and overturning.The influences of different tree sizes characteristics(stem base diameter,tree weight,and root failure radius) and debris-flow characteristics(density,velocity,flow depth,and boulder diameter) on tree failure were analyzed.The observations obtained from the model adopted in this study show that trees are more prone to stem breakage than overturning.With an increase in tree size,the ability to resist stem breakage and overturning increases.Debris-flow density influences the critical failure conditions of trees substantially less than the debrisflow velocity,depth,and boulder diameter.The application conditions of forests in debris-flow hazard mitigation were proposed based on the analysis of the model results.The proposed models were applied in the Xiajijiehaizi Gully as a case study,and the results explain the destruction of trees in the forest dispersing zone.This work provides references for implementing forest measures for debris-flow hazard mitigation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50378054)the National Basic Research Program (973) of China(No.2002CB412709)
文摘It is urgently needed to describe the structural collapse process under extreme conditions to survive people.For reinforced concrete structures it is still a difficulty to describe the failure of reinforced concrete members under complex internal force combination,such as under axial forces,bending moment,shear forces, and torsion working together.In this paper,based on the traditional Nielsen model,a new unified failure model on reinforcement evenly distributed concrete members with box section under combined forces is introduced.The advantages of the proposed new model are to consider the dowel actions of reinforcements and reasonably to consider of the shear carrying capacity of concrete,especially when compression stress of concrete is in a high value.Finally,the theoretical results of the new model are compared with a series of experimental results of box section members.The comparison has verified that the new model is more accurate and feasible for the design and calculation of box section members.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.SWJTU09ZT35)National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China (No.11025210)
文摘Based on the time-dependent strain cyclic characteristics and fatigue behaviors of SS304 stainless steel under multi-axial cyclic loading at 700 ？ C, and in the frame of unified visoco-plastic cyclic constitutive model and continuum damage mechanics theory, the damage-coupled multi-axial time-dependent constitutive model and fatigue failure model were proposed. In the model, the evolution equation of damage was introduced in and the time-dependent effects, e.g. holding time, loading rate, were taken into account. The model was applied to the simulation of whole-life cyclic deformation behaviors and prediction of LCF life for SS304 stainless steel in multiaxial time-dependent low cycle fatigue tests. It is shown that the simulated results agree well with experimental ones.
文摘The brittleness generation mechanism of high strength lightweight aggregate con-crete(HSLWAC) was presented, and it was indicated that lightweight aggregate was the vulnerable spot, initiating brittleness. Based on the analysis of the brittleness failure by the load-deflection curve, the brittleness presented by HSLWAC was more prominent compared with ordinary lightweight aggregate concrete of the same strength grade. The model of brittleness failure was also established.
文摘The main goal of this research is to enhance the auditor＇s judgment ability in going concern opinion by applying bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. Data for this research have been collected through questionnaires. The statistical population consists of auditors who are members of Iranian Association of Certified Public Accountants （IACPA）. The research results reflect that： （1） Auditors do not use statistical techniques for assessing going concern as an analytical procedure; （2） Auditors do not use these techniques as a tool to decrease the bias of judgments in assessing the going concern assumption; （3） Auditors do not use statistical techniques to assess audit risk in the planning stage; （4） Auditors do not use statistical techniques to assess audit risk in the final stage. Furthermore this research shows that auditors believe that the ＂standard concerning usage of analytical procedures needs more clarification＂ and ＂statistical bankruptcy predication models can help auditors in the planning stage＂. The other goal of this research is to show different auditor＇s judgments in assessing the going concern opinion with and without applying the bankruptcy prediction models as an analytical procedure. The result shows that the judgment of auditors toward the going concern assumption has improved by using statistical bankruptcy predication models.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50378054)the National Basic Research Program(973)of China(No.2002CB412709)
文摘Based on the traditional Nielsen model,a unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section members under combined forces was introduced by Luo and Liu.One of their contributions is adjustment of the shear carrying capacity of concrete at the member failure surface.In the unified failure model,the comparison with the experimental results verified this adjustment.Nevertheless,it should be pointed out that the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at member failure surface for the reinforced concrete members in the unified failure model is a fixed adjustment constant for all experiment data,which is basically determined by curve fitting.However,the adjustment factor should vary with the normal stress at the member failure surface.In this paper,an advanced theoretical model is introduced,in which the adjustment factor of shear carrying capacity at failure surface is a variable related to the normal stress at failure surface.Furthermore,the advanced unified failure model on the uniformly reinforced concrete box section member can still be expressed in a simple form.Finally,the comparison with several groups of test data has verified that this advanced model is more accurate and feasible to be used in design.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 52277153).
文摘The performance of polypropylene film determines the reliability of capacitors.This paper studies the change of insulation characteristics of the insulation dielectric polypropylene of high-voltage capacitors during the long-term operation process.Moreover,the correction of the insulation failure model of polypropylene media is implemented.Some conclusions are drawn from a series of experiments.The breakdown strength of the insulation dielectrics decreases as the withstand time rises,with amaximum decrease of 37.91%compared to the polypropylene sample without withstand voltage.As the electric field increases from−20 to−100 kV/mm,the total amount of space charge,the trap energy level and the trap density inside the polypropylene increase by 524.15%,18.99%and 773.36%,respectively.In the capacitor simulation model,the electric field in the capacitor increases by 19.62%after presetting space charge relative to the nonspace charge.The experimental data are substituted into the inverse power model,and the trap parameters are used to modify the model.The results show that the ageing state of the polypropylene has a negative exponential relationship with the trap parameters.This paper provides an important reference for the study of the failure mechanism of polypropylene in high-voltage capacitors and the assessment of polypropylene ageing state.
文摘Modeling HIV/AIDS progression is critical for understanding disease dynamics and improving patient care. This study compares the Exponential and Weibull survival models, focusing on their ability to capture state-specific failure rates in HIV/AIDS progression. While the Exponential model offers simplicity with a constant hazard rate, it often fails to accommodate the complexities of dynamic disease progression. In contrast, the Weibull model provides flexibility by allowing hazard rates to vary over time. Both models are evaluated within the frameworks of the Cox Proportional Hazards (Cox PH) and Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models, incorporating critical covariates such as age, gender, CD4 count, and ART status. Statistical evaluation metrics, including Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), log-likelihood, and Pseudo-R2, were employed to assess model performance across diverse patient subgroups. Results indicate that the Weibull model consistently outperforms the Exponential model in dynamic scenarios, such as younger patients and those with co-infections, while maintaining robustness in stable contexts. This study highlights the trade-off between flexibility and simplicity in survival modeling, advocating for tailored model selection to balance interpretability and predictive accuracy. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing HIV/AIDS management strategies and advancing survival analysis methodologies.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52175122 and 52075456)the Sichuan Science and Technology Program,China(Grant No.2023NSFSC0362)+1 种基金the Sichuan Province Innovative Talent Funding Project for Postdoctoral Fellows,China(Grant No.BX202214)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M732917).
文摘The failure types in gear systems vary,with typical ones mainly including pitting,cracking,wear,and broken teeth.Different modeling and stiffness calculation methods have been developed for various gear failure types.A unified method for typical gear failure modeling and stiffness calculation is introduced in this study by considering the deviations in the time-varying meshing stiffness(TVMS)of faulty gears resulting from the use of different methods.Specifically,a gear tooth is discretized into a large number of microelements expressed with a matrix,and unified models of typical gear failures are built by adjusting the values of the matrix microelements.The values and positions of the microelements in the tooth failure model matrix have the same physical meaning as the parameter variables in the potential energy method(PEM),so the matrix-based failure model can be perfectly matched with PEM.Afterward,a unified method for TVMS is established.Modeling of healthy and faulty gears with pitting,wear,crack,and broken tooth is performed with the matrix equation,and the corresponding TVMS values are calculated by incorporating the matrix models with PEM.On the basis of the results,the mechanism of typical fault types that affect TVMS is analyzed,and the conclusions are verified through the finite element method.The developed unified method is a promising technique for studying the dynamic response characteristics of gear systems with different failure types because of its superiority in eliminating stiffness deviations.
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.
基金co-supported by National Basic Research Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51075204)Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (No.2009ZB52028, No. 2012ZB52026)+1 种基金Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (No. 20070287039)NUAA Research Funding (No. NZ2012106)
文摘A new unified macro- and micro-mechanics failure analysis method for composite structures was developed in order to take the effects of composite micro structure into consideration. In this method, the macro stress distribution of composite structure was calculated by commercial finite element analysis software. According to the macro stress distribution, the damage point was searched and the micro-stress distribution was calculated by reformulated finite-volume direct averaging micromechanics （FVDAM）, which was a multi-scale finite element method for composite. The micro structure failure modes were estimated with the failure strength of constituents. A unidirectional composite plate with a circular hole in the center under two kinds of loads was analyzed with the traditional macro-mechanical failure analysis method and the unified macro- and micro-mechanics failure analysis method. The results obtained by the two methods are consistent, which show this new method＇s accuracy and efficiency.
基金financial support from National Natural Science Foundation of China through Grant U1737210
文摘The formability of the material determines the amount of available deformation before failure and thus is important for the production of various structural components in industries. The workability of materiMs is commonly evaluated by different forms of failure mod- els during sheet metal forming （SMF） processes. In order to provide a whole picture about the prediction models for SMF failure, necking-related formability and ductile fracture-related forma- bility studies in SMF processes are systematically summarized, the applicability and limitation of each model are highlighted, and the link between forming limit diagram and ductile fracture criterion is pointed out, Conclusions about some critical issues on failure in SMF are made.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2023JJ40078)the Scientific Research Project of Hunan Provincial Education Department(No.22C0573)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51478477,51878668)Guizhou Provincial Department of Transportation Foundation(2017-122058)Foundation of Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Department([2018]2815).
文摘Only simplified two-dimensional model and a single failure mode are adopted to calculate the ultimate pullout capacity(UPC)of anchor cables in most previous research.This study focuses on a more comprehensive combination failure mode that consists of bond failure of an anchorage body and failure of an anchored rock mass.The three-dimensional ultimate pullout capacity of the anchor cables is calculated based on the Hoek-Brown failure criterion and variation analysis method.The numerical solution for the curvilinear function in fracture plane is obtained based on the finite difference theory,which more accurately reflects the failure state of the anchor cable,as opposed to that being assumed in advance.The results reveal that relying solely on a single failure mode for UPC calculations has limitations,as changes in parameter values not only directly impact the UPC value but also can alter the failure model and thus the calculation method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51175502)
文摘The test selection and optimization （TSO） can improve the abilities of fault diagnosis, prognosis and health-state evalua- tion for prognostics and health management （PHM） systems. Traditionally, TSO mainly focuses on fault detection and isolation, but they cannot provide an effective guide for the design for testability （DFT） to improve the PHM performance level. To solve the problem, a model of TSO for PHM systems is proposed. Firstly, through integrating the characteristics of fault severity and propa- gation time, and analyzing the test timing and sensitivity, a testability model based on failure evolution mechanism model （FEMM） for PHM systems is built up. This model describes the fault evolution- test dependency using the fault-symptom parameter matrix and symptom parameter-test matrix. Secondly, a novel method of in- herent testability analysis for PHM systems is developed based on the above information. Having completed the analysis, a TSO model, whose objective is to maximize fault trackability and mini- mize the test cost, is proposed through inherent testability analysis results, and an adaptive simulated annealing genetic algorithm （ASAGA） is introduced to solve the TSO problem. Finally, a case of a centrifugal pump system is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. The results show that the proposed technology is important for PHM systems to select and optimize the test set in order to improve their performance level.
文摘This paper presents three case studies comprising failure mechanisms in phyllite mine slopes at Quadrila- tero Ferrifero, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Numerical modeling techniques were used in this study. Fail- ure mechanisms involving discontinuities sub parallel to the main foliation are very common in these mines. Besides, failure through the rock material has also been observed due to the low strength of phyl- lites in this site. Results of this work permitted to establish unknown geotechnical parameters which have significant influence in failure processes, like the in situ stress field and the discontinuity stiffness.
文摘This paper focuses on the prediction of the safe autorotation landing operations of a helicopter following engine failure.The autorotation landing procedure is formulated as a nonlinear optimal control problem based on an augmented six-degree-of-freedom rigid-body flight dynamic model.First,the cost function and constraints are properly selected.The direct transcription approach is then employed to solve the optimal control problem.For a UH-60 helicopter,the optimal solutions with the rigid-body model are compared with those obtained using a two-dimensional point-mass model.It is found that the optimal solutions using the two different models show reasonably good agreement,and furthermore the optimal solutions using the rigid-body model involve the time histories of angular rates and attitudes,lateral velocity and position,as well as pitch controls.Finally the optimal control formulations with different cost functions are proposed for taking account of 1-s time delay and minimum touchdown speed.The calculated control strategies and trajectories are realistic.
基金This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities （No.2017JBM003）, the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No.61575053, No.61504008）, and the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China （No.20130009120042）.
文摘Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module.
文摘In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.
文摘In this paper, the fuzzy theory is used to describe the uncertainty in failure definition of composite structures. The concept of structural failure level (SFL) is suggested and a method of evaluation is presented.
