The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°...The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°52'5''W) a town with 3000 inhabitants. Both weather stations are 30 km from each other in the Chiapas State, México. 54 years of daily records of the series of maximum (<em>t</em><sub>max</sub>) and minimum temperatures (<em>t</em><sub>min</sub>) of the weather station 07205 Comitan that is on top of a house and 30 years of daily records of the weather station 07374 La Esperanza were analyzed. The objective is to analyze the evidence of climate change in the Comitan valley. 2.07% and 19.04% of missing data were filled, respectively, with the WS method. In order to verify homogeneity three methods were used: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), the Von Neumann method and the Buishand method. The heterogeneous series were homogenized using climatol. The trends of <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> and <em>t</em><sub>min</sub> for both weather stations were analyzed by simple linear regression, Sperman’s rho and Mann-Kendall tests. The Mann-Kendal test method confirmed the warming trend at the Comitan station for both variables with <em>Z<sub>MK</sub></em> statistic values equal to 1.57 (statistically not significant) and 4.64 (statistically significant). However, for the Esperanza station, it determined a cooling trend for tmin and a slight non-significant warming for <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> with a <em>Z</em><sub><em>MK</em></sub> statistic of -2.27 (statistically significant) and 1.16 (statistically not significant), for a significance level <em>α</em> = 0.05.展开更多
The Extreme Ultraviolet Camera （EUVC） onboard the Chang＇e-3 （CE-3） lander is used to observe the structure and dynamics of Earth＇s plasmasphere from the Moon. By detecting the resonance line emission of helium i...The Extreme Ultraviolet Camera （EUVC） onboard the Chang＇e-3 （CE-3） lander is used to observe the structure and dynamics of Earth＇s plasmasphere from the Moon. By detecting the resonance line emission of helium ions （He＋） at 30.4 nm, the EUVC images the entire plasmasphere with a time resolution of 10 min and a spatial resolution of about 0.1 Earth radius （RE） in a single frame. We first present details about the data processing from EUVC and the data acquisition in the commissioning phase, and then report some initial results, which reflect the basic features of the plas- masphere well. The photon count and emission intensity of EUVC are consistent with previous observations and models, which indicate that the EUVC works normally and can provide high quality data for future studies.展开更多
This article presented a new data fusion approach for reasonably predicting dynamic serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder.Firstly,multivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model(MBDLM)considering dynami...This article presented a new data fusion approach for reasonably predicting dynamic serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder.Firstly,multivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model(MBDLM)considering dynamic correlation among the multiple variables is provided to predict dynamic extreme deflections;secondly,with the proposed MBDLM,the dynamic correlation coefficients between any two performance functions can be predicted;finally,based on MBDLM and Gaussian copula technique,a new data fusion method is given to predict the serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder,and the monitoring extreme deflection data from an actual bridge is provided to illustrated the feasibility and application of the proposed method.展开更多
The Extreme Learning Machine（ELM） and its variants are effective in many machine learning applications such as Imbalanced Learning（IL） or Big Data（BD） learning. However, they are unable to solve both imbalanced ...The Extreme Learning Machine（ELM） and its variants are effective in many machine learning applications such as Imbalanced Learning（IL） or Big Data（BD） learning. However, they are unable to solve both imbalanced and large-volume data learning problems. This study addresses the IL problem in BD applications. The Distributed and Weighted ELM（DW-ELM） algorithm is proposed, which is based on the Map Reduce framework. To confirm the feasibility of parallel computation, first, the fact that matrix multiplication operators are decomposable is illustrated.Then, to further improve the computational efficiency, an Improved DW-ELM algorithm（IDW-ELM） is developed using only one Map Reduce job. The successful operations of the proposed DW-ELM and IDW-ELM algorithms are finally validated through experiments.展开更多
Local extreme rain usually resulted in disasters such as flash floods and landslides. Upon today, it is still one of the most difficult tasks for operational weather forecast centers to predict those events accurately...Local extreme rain usually resulted in disasters such as flash floods and landslides. Upon today, it is still one of the most difficult tasks for operational weather forecast centers to predict those events accurately. In this paper, we simulate an extreme precipitation event with ensemble Kalman filter(En KF) assimilation of Doppler radial-velocity observations, and analyze the uncertainties of the assimilation. The results demonstrate that, without assimilation radar data, neither a single initialization of deterministic forecast nor an ensemble forecast with adding perturbations or multiple physical parameterizations can predict the location of strong precipitation. However, forecast was significantly improved with assimilation of radar data, especially the location of the precipitation. The direct cause of the improvement is the buildup of a deep mesoscale convection system with En KF assimilation of radar data. Under a large scale background favorable for mesoscale convection, efficient perturbations of upstream mid-low level meridional wind and moisture are key factors for the assimilation and forecast. Uncertainty still exists for the forecast of this case due to its limited predictability. Both the difference of large scale initial fields and the difference of analysis obtained from En KF assimilation due to small amplitude of initial perturbations could have critical influences to the event's prediction. Forecast could be improved through more cycles of En KF assimilation. Sensitivity tests also support that more accurate forecasts are expected through improving numerical models and observations.展开更多
文摘The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°52'5''W) a town with 3000 inhabitants. Both weather stations are 30 km from each other in the Chiapas State, México. 54 years of daily records of the series of maximum (<em>t</em><sub>max</sub>) and minimum temperatures (<em>t</em><sub>min</sub>) of the weather station 07205 Comitan that is on top of a house and 30 years of daily records of the weather station 07374 La Esperanza were analyzed. The objective is to analyze the evidence of climate change in the Comitan valley. 2.07% and 19.04% of missing data were filled, respectively, with the WS method. In order to verify homogeneity three methods were used: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), the Von Neumann method and the Buishand method. The heterogeneous series were homogenized using climatol. The trends of <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> and <em>t</em><sub>min</sub> for both weather stations were analyzed by simple linear regression, Sperman’s rho and Mann-Kendall tests. The Mann-Kendal test method confirmed the warming trend at the Comitan station for both variables with <em>Z<sub>MK</sub></em> statistic values equal to 1.57 (statistically not significant) and 4.64 (statistically significant). However, for the Esperanza station, it determined a cooling trend for tmin and a slight non-significant warming for <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> with a <em>Z</em><sub><em>MK</em></sub> statistic of -2.27 (statistically significant) and 1.16 (statistically not significant), for a significance level <em>α</em> = 0.05.
文摘The Extreme Ultraviolet Camera （EUVC） onboard the Chang＇e-3 （CE-3） lander is used to observe the structure and dynamics of Earth＇s plasmasphere from the Moon. By detecting the resonance line emission of helium ions （He＋） at 30.4 nm, the EUVC images the entire plasmasphere with a time resolution of 10 min and a spatial resolution of about 0.1 Earth radius （RE） in a single frame. We first present details about the data processing from EUVC and the data acquisition in the commissioning phase, and then report some initial results, which reflect the basic features of the plas- masphere well. The photon count and emission intensity of EUVC are consistent with previous observations and models, which indicate that the EUVC works normally and can provide high quality data for future studies.
基金This work was supported by Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province of China(20JR10RA625,20JR10RA623)National Key Research and Development Project of China(Project No.2019YFC1511005)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.lzujbky-2020-55)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51608243).
文摘This article presented a new data fusion approach for reasonably predicting dynamic serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder.Firstly,multivariate Bayesian dynamic linear model(MBDLM)considering dynamic correlation among the multiple variables is provided to predict dynamic extreme deflections;secondly,with the proposed MBDLM,the dynamic correlation coefficients between any two performance functions can be predicted;finally,based on MBDLM and Gaussian copula technique,a new data fusion method is given to predict the serviceability reliability of the long-span bridge girder,and the monitoring extreme deflection data from an actual bridge is provided to illustrated the feasibility and application of the proposed method.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.61402089,61472069,and 61501101)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Nos.N161904001,N161602003,and N150408001)+2 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Liaoning Province(No.2015020553)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2016M591447)the Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Northeastern University(No.20160203)
文摘The Extreme Learning Machine（ELM） and its variants are effective in many machine learning applications such as Imbalanced Learning（IL） or Big Data（BD） learning. However, they are unable to solve both imbalanced and large-volume data learning problems. This study addresses the IL problem in BD applications. The Distributed and Weighted ELM（DW-ELM） algorithm is proposed, which is based on the Map Reduce framework. To confirm the feasibility of parallel computation, first, the fact that matrix multiplication operators are decomposable is illustrated.Then, to further improve the computational efficiency, an Improved DW-ELM algorithm（IDW-ELM） is developed using only one Map Reduce job. The successful operations of the proposed DW-ELM and IDW-ELM algorithms are finally validated through experiments.
文摘Local extreme rain usually resulted in disasters such as flash floods and landslides. Upon today, it is still one of the most difficult tasks for operational weather forecast centers to predict those events accurately. In this paper, we simulate an extreme precipitation event with ensemble Kalman filter(En KF) assimilation of Doppler radial-velocity observations, and analyze the uncertainties of the assimilation. The results demonstrate that, without assimilation radar data, neither a single initialization of deterministic forecast nor an ensemble forecast with adding perturbations or multiple physical parameterizations can predict the location of strong precipitation. However, forecast was significantly improved with assimilation of radar data, especially the location of the precipitation. The direct cause of the improvement is the buildup of a deep mesoscale convection system with En KF assimilation of radar data. Under a large scale background favorable for mesoscale convection, efficient perturbations of upstream mid-low level meridional wind and moisture are key factors for the assimilation and forecast. Uncertainty still exists for the forecast of this case due to its limited predictability. Both the difference of large scale initial fields and the difference of analysis obtained from En KF assimilation due to small amplitude of initial perturbations could have critical influences to the event's prediction. Forecast could be improved through more cycles of En KF assimilation. Sensitivity tests also support that more accurate forecasts are expected through improving numerical models and observations.
