By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper const...By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks(time dimension)and from institutions and assets(spatial dimension).Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built.It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks,the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks.Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks,and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks.In terms of influencing factors,a stronger indirect relevance,a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks.In particular,the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.展开更多
Global and local shocks such as COVID-19 or the Russian attack on Ukraine have influenced European air transport,and other shocks will appear in the future.The subsequent traffic shifts affect one bottleneck candidate...Global and local shocks such as COVID-19 or the Russian attack on Ukraine have influenced European air transport,and other shocks will appear in the future.The subsequent traffic shifts affect one bottleneck candidate of the system:the Air Navigation Service Providers(ANSP).In this paper,we apply productivity metrics and Malmquist Data Envelopment Analysis to examine how the ANSP related performance of the air transport system has changed between 2008 and 2020.By considering different levels of granularity we demonstrate the tremendous influence that shocks may have on demand figures and,subsequently,on performance metrics.As an example we show that the Corona pandemic had disparate impacts on various units,resulting in notable efficiency losses in 2020,however,with a strong variation between ANSPs.The findings of our study can be utilized in a subsequent root-cause analysis to quantify the impacts of both endogenous and exogenous factors on performance.This in turn will provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders in managing air transport during and after such shocks,and to create a more resilient air traffic management system.展开更多
This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical a...This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical analysis has been conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 97 developing countries covering the period of 1980–2017 and primarily the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. Findings have revealed that least developed countries tend to experience a positive tax revenue instability effect of poverty volatility, while poverty volatility results in lower tax revenue instability in relatively advanced countries. Additionally, poverty volatility dampens the instability of tax revenue when poverty rates are low, and enhances it when countries face a greater extent of external shocks. From a policy perspective, this analysis shows that it would be essential for policymakers to dampen the volatility of poverty rates (notably in countries with high poverty rates) if they were to ensure the stability of tax revenue or reduce its instability, given the adverse effect of tax revenue instability on economic growth.展开更多
文摘By incorporating both the fire sales contagion mechanism and the bankruptcy contagion mechanism into a bank network model,this paper examines how risks are generated under dynamic shocks.In particular,this paper constructs systemic risk indicators suitable for analyzing multiple rounds of contagion under different shocks(time dimension)and from institutions and assets(spatial dimension).Indicators that measure the indirect relevance between institutions and between assets are also innovatively built.It is found that due to deleveraging or bankruptcy among a large number of banks,the systemic risk exhibits an upward trend marked by intermittent jumps under varying intensities of shocks.Risks are generated mainly through the fire sales contagion mechanism of deleveraging under small shocks,and through the bankruptcy contagion mechanism under large shocks.In terms of influencing factors,a stronger indirect relevance,a lower leverage skewness and a higher leverage level in the banking system lead to higher risks.In particular,the influence of leverage skewness on systemic risk is stronger than that of leverage level.
文摘Global and local shocks such as COVID-19 or the Russian attack on Ukraine have influenced European air transport,and other shocks will appear in the future.The subsequent traffic shifts affect one bottleneck candidate of the system:the Air Navigation Service Providers(ANSP).In this paper,we apply productivity metrics and Malmquist Data Envelopment Analysis to examine how the ANSP related performance of the air transport system has changed between 2008 and 2020.By considering different levels of granularity we demonstrate the tremendous influence that shocks may have on demand figures and,subsequently,on performance metrics.As an example we show that the Corona pandemic had disparate impacts on various units,resulting in notable efficiency losses in 2020,however,with a strong variation between ANSPs.The findings of our study can be utilized in a subsequent root-cause analysis to quantify the impacts of both endogenous and exogenous factors on performance.This in turn will provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders in managing air transport during and after such shocks,and to create a more resilient air traffic management system.
文摘This paper complements the relatively few existing studies on the macroeconomic effects of poverty in developing countries, by investigating the effect of poverty volatility on tax revenue instability. The empirical analysis has been conducted using an unbalanced panel dataset of 97 developing countries covering the period of 1980–2017 and primarily the two-step system generalized method of moments estimator. Findings have revealed that least developed countries tend to experience a positive tax revenue instability effect of poverty volatility, while poverty volatility results in lower tax revenue instability in relatively advanced countries. Additionally, poverty volatility dampens the instability of tax revenue when poverty rates are low, and enhances it when countries face a greater extent of external shocks. From a policy perspective, this analysis shows that it would be essential for policymakers to dampen the volatility of poverty rates (notably in countries with high poverty rates) if they were to ensure the stability of tax revenue or reduce its instability, given the adverse effect of tax revenue instability on economic growth.
