A problem of the air pollution control in China is getting to know a regional contribution rate of internal and external source of PM2.5. In this paper,Set Pair Analysis（ SPA） method is proposed to calculate the con...A problem of the air pollution control in China is getting to know a regional contribution rate of internal and external source of PM2.5. In this paper,Set Pair Analysis（ SPA） method is proposed to calculate the contribution rate of PM2.5in Dongguan City. Due to geographic,meteorological factors and the low concentration of air pollutants in Qingxi area,the PM2.5in this place is mainly contributed by the regional transport of air pollutants from other inside areas of Dongguan,and less affected by the outside of Dongguan. So the concentration of PM2.5in Qingxi area can reflect the Dongguan＇s basic background concentration of PM2.5. On the basis of the basic background concentration,firstly the concentration of each pollutant components is divided into the internal part and the mixed part. Secondly using the source apportionment samples of five monitoring sites in Dongguan we can respectively construct a sample set A and an evaluation set B. Thirdly the SPA is operated onto the mixed part in terms of set B.At last the connection degree between the concentration of each pollutant components and external source and internal source will be calculated,that is the contribution rate. The research reveals that the contribution rate of internal source and external source of PM2.5in Dongguan City is 83%and 17% respectively,which roughly met expectations. This method is simple and effective and it can provide a reference for the government taking reduction measures to control PM2.5pollutants emission.展开更多
Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic ...Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.展开更多
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171089)Research for PM_(2.5) Contamination Characteristics and Prevention and Control Countermeasures in Dongguan City(Dongcaidan[2013]222)
文摘A problem of the air pollution control in China is getting to know a regional contribution rate of internal and external source of PM2.5. In this paper,Set Pair Analysis（ SPA） method is proposed to calculate the contribution rate of PM2.5in Dongguan City. Due to geographic,meteorological factors and the low concentration of air pollutants in Qingxi area,the PM2.5in this place is mainly contributed by the regional transport of air pollutants from other inside areas of Dongguan,and less affected by the outside of Dongguan. So the concentration of PM2.5in Qingxi area can reflect the Dongguan＇s basic background concentration of PM2.5. On the basis of the basic background concentration,firstly the concentration of each pollutant components is divided into the internal part and the mixed part. Secondly using the source apportionment samples of five monitoring sites in Dongguan we can respectively construct a sample set A and an evaluation set B. Thirdly the SPA is operated onto the mixed part in terms of set B.At last the connection degree between the concentration of each pollutant components and external source and internal source will be calculated,that is the contribution rate. The research reveals that the contribution rate of internal source and external source of PM2.5in Dongguan City is 83%and 17% respectively,which roughly met expectations. This method is simple and effective and it can provide a reference for the government taking reduction measures to control PM2.5pollutants emission.
基金National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB956203)the China Meteorological Administration R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY201306027)+1 种基金the Open Research Fund Program of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province (Grant No. PAEKL-2015-C1)the National Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41405090)
文摘Based on observations and historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5) archive, the contributions of human activities(including greenhouse gases(GHGs), anthropogenic aerosols(AAs), and land use(LU)) and external natural forcings(Nat) to climate changes in China over the past 50 years were quantified. Both anthropogenic and external natural forcings account for 95%–99% of the observed temperature change from 1951–1975 to 1981–2005. In particular, the temperature changes induced by GHGs are approximately 2–3 times stronger than the observed changes, and AAs impose a significant cooling effect. The total external forcings can explain 65%–78% of the observed precipitation changes over the past 50 years, in which AAs and GHGs are the primary external forcings leading to the precipitation changes; in particular, AAs dominate the main spatial features of precipitation changes in eastern China. Human activities also dominate the long-term non-linear trends in observed temperature during the past several decades, and, in particular, GHGs, the primary warming contributor, have produced significant warming since the 1960 s. Compared to the long-term non-linear trends in observed precipitation, GHGs have largely caused the wetting changes in the arid-semiarid region since the 1970 s, whereas AAs have led to the drying changes in the humid-semihumid region; both LU and Nat can impose certain impacts on the long-term non-linear trends in precipitation. Using the optimal fingerprinting detection approach, the effects of human activities on the temperature changes can be detected and attributed in China, and the effect of GHGs can be clearly detected from the observations in humid-semihumid areas. However, the anthropogenic effects cannot be detected in the observed precipitation changes, which may be due to the uncertainties in the model simulations and to other issues. Although some results in this paper still need improvement due to uncertainties in the coupled models, this study is expected to provide the background and scientific basis for climate changes to conduct vulnerability and risk assessments of the ecological systems and water resources in the arid-semiarid region of China.
