Free economic zone (FEZ) has a long history and plays a more and more important role in the world economy. Most studies, however, focused on the theoretical analysis of benefit and cost as well as the economic role of...Free economic zone (FEZ) has a long history and plays a more and more important role in the world economy. Most studies, however, focused on the theoretical analysis of benefit and cost as well as the economic role of FEZ in the less developed countries and little attention has been paid to the evolution of FEZ. This paper will improve the above-mentioned studies and put forward the structural and spatial evolutionary model of FEZ by analyzing the development of objectives, preferential policy, governance structure, industrial sectors and location of FEZs based on the international economic and political development. FEZs develop towards: 1) more comprehensive and macro objectives, 2) more industry-oriented and multi-preferential policies, 3) more cross-national and combination zones with administrative areas, 4) more technology-intensive and multi-industries, 5) more flexible location and larger spatial dimensions, 6) more rapid evolution and typologies, and 7) more economic integration to the host economy.展开更多
In this paper,we prove the local existence and uniqueness of solutions to the evolutionary model for magnetoviscoelasticity in R^(2),R^(3).This model consists of an incompressible Navier-Stokes,a regularized system fo...In this paper,we prove the local existence and uniqueness of solutions to the evolutionary model for magnetoviscoelasticity in R^(2),R^(3).This model consists of an incompressible Navier-Stokes,a regularized system for the evolution of the deformation gradient and the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert system for the dynamics of the mag-netization.Our approach depends on approximating the system with a sequence of perturbed systems.展开更多
Coulomb stress changes associated with strong earthquakes occurring since 1484 in Hebei Province,China are investigated. The North China block has had many large historical earthquakes and some damaging earthquakes in...Coulomb stress changes associated with strong earthquakes occurring since 1484 in Hebei Province,China are investigated. The North China block has had many large historical earthquakes and some damaging earthquakes in the past century,including the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M =7.8) . The study area and the adjacent areas of the province comprise the most active seismic fault zones and suffer from both strong and frequent events. The North China Block,which includes the Ordos plateau and the North China plain,is part of the Archean Sino-Lorean craton and one of the most active seismic regions in the world. Its movement is accommodated on major strike-slip intraplate fault zones that strike in the E-W direction. The faults in the study area contribute to the complexity of the stress field. Seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb failure function ( ΔCFF) arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events (MS≥6.5) and the stress built up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults. At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence that the fault segments that are apt to fail in an impending strong event,thus providing future seismic hazard evaluation. In this paper,the results of ΔCFF for Zhangjiakou fault, Xiadian fault and Langfang fault have been shown as examples to express the possiblity of generating future seismic hazard.展开更多
Central place theory is one of the two theoretical cornerstones of geography, yet it cannot be connected with other spatial structure models, fails to provide definite time-space parameter conditions, lacks an evoluti...Central place theory is one of the two theoretical cornerstones of geography, yet it cannot be connected with other spatial structure models, fails to provide definite time-space parameter conditions, lacks an evolutionary process model, and does not easily enable construction of a complete theoretical system of regional spatial structure. This paper gives an in-depth analysis of the process and mechanism for production and evolution of central places of different grades, and constructs an evolutionary model of the central place hierarchical system. The results of deduction, analysis and simulation show that production and evolution of the central place hierarchical system may be divided into five stages. These stages are the embryonic, formative, improvement, maturation, and advancement stages. Affected by spatial location and centricity, central places have obvious differences in scale and functional structures. There are great differences in the scale of same-grade central places. However, low-grade central places could have larger scales than high-grade central places, and the central places of a central location may form the agglomeration area of central places. Based on the hypothesis condition of an isotropic plain, the research shows that it is possible not only to form proportional functional structures of central places, but also to produce non-proportional scale structures of central places, and thus to complete the transformation from rationalistic deduction of spatial equilibrium mode to an explanation and demonstration of an unbalanced practical model.展开更多
In this paper, the high-level knowledge of financial data modeled by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is discovered in dynamic data by using an asynchronous parallel evolutionary modeling algorithm (APHEMA). A n...In this paper, the high-level knowledge of financial data modeled by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is discovered in dynamic data by using an asynchronous parallel evolutionary modeling algorithm (APHEMA). A numerical example of Nasdaq index analysis is used to demonstrate the potential of APHEMA. The results show that the dynamic models automatically discovered in dynamic data by computer can be used to predict the financial trends.展开更多
The time series of precipitation in flood season (May-September) at WuhanStation, which is set as an example of the kind of time series with chaos characters, is split intotwo parts: One includes macro climatic timesc...The time series of precipitation in flood season (May-September) at WuhanStation, which is set as an example of the kind of time series with chaos characters, is split intotwo parts: One includes macro climatic timescale period waves that are affected by some relativelysteady climatic factors such as astronomical factors (sunspot, etc.), some other known and/orunknown factors, and the other includes micro climatic timescale period waves superimposed on themacro one. The evolutionary modeling (EM), which develops from genetic programming (GP), is supposedto be adept at simulating the former part because it creates the nonlinear ordinary differentialequation (NODE) based upon the data series. The natural fractals (NF) are used to simulate thelatter part. The final prediction is the sum of results from both methods, thus the model canreflect multi-time scale effects of forcing factors in the climate system. The results of thisexample for 2002 and 2003 are satisfactory for climatic prediction operation. The NODE can suggestthat the data vary with time, which is beneficial to think over short-range climatic analysis andprediction. Comparison in principle between evolutionary modeling and linear modeling indicates thatthe evolutionary one is a better way to simulate the complex time series with nonlinearcharacteristics.展开更多
The mid-long term hydrology forecasting is one of most challenging problems in hydrological studies. This paper proposes an efficient dynamical system prediction model using evolutionary computation techniques. The ne...The mid-long term hydrology forecasting is one of most challenging problems in hydrological studies. This paper proposes an efficient dynamical system prediction model using evolutionary computation techniques. The new model overcomes some disadvantages of conventional hydrology forecasting ones. The observed data is divided into two parts; the slow 'smooth and steady' data, and the fast 'coarse and fluctuation' data. Under the divide and conquer strategy, the behavior of smooth data is modeled by ordinary differential equations based on evolutionary modeling, and that of the coarse data is modeled using gray correlative forecasting method. Our model is verified on the test data of the mid-long term hydrology forecast in the northeast region of China. The experimental results show that the model is superior to gray system prediction model (GSPM).展开更多
We investigate a simple evolutionary game model in one dimension. It is found that the system exhibits a discontinuous phase transition from a defection state to a cooperation state when the b payoff of a defector exp...We investigate a simple evolutionary game model in one dimension. It is found that the system exhibits a discontinuous phase transition from a defection state to a cooperation state when the b payoff of a defector exploiting a cooperator is small. Furthermore, if b is large enough, then the system exhibits two continuous phase transitions between two absorbing states and a coexistence state of cooperation and defection, respectively. The tri-critical point is roughly estimated. Moreover, it is found that the critical behavior of the continuous phase transition with an absorbing state is in the directed percolation universality class.展开更多
In a multi-agent system, each agent must adapt itself to the environment and coordinate with other agents dynamically. TO predict or cooperate with the behavior of oiller agents. An agent should dynamically establish ...In a multi-agent system, each agent must adapt itself to the environment and coordinate with other agents dynamically. TO predict or cooperate with the behavior of oiller agents. An agent should dynamically establish and evolve the cooperative behavior model of itself. In this paper, we represent the behavior model of an agent as a f-mite state machine and propose a new method of dynamically evolving the behavior model of an agent by evolutionary programming.展开更多
The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized tha...The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.展开更多
First, an asynchronous distributed parallel evolutionary modeling algorithm (PEMA) for building the model of system of ordinary differential equations for dynamical systems is proposed in this paper. Then a series of ...First, an asynchronous distributed parallel evolutionary modeling algorithm (PEMA) for building the model of system of ordinary differential equations for dynamical systems is proposed in this paper. Then a series of parallel experiments have been conducted to systematically test the influence of some important parallel control parameters on the performance of the algorithm. A lot of experimental results are obtained and we make some analysis and explanations to them.展开更多
Stock market trends forecast is one of the most current topics and a significant research challenge due to its dynamic and unstable nature.The stock data is usually non-stationary,and attributes are non-correlative to...Stock market trends forecast is one of the most current topics and a significant research challenge due to its dynamic and unstable nature.The stock data is usually non-stationary,and attributes are non-correlative to each other.Several traditional Stock Technical Indicators(STIs)may incorrectly predict the stockmarket trends.To study the stock market characteristics using STIs and make efficient trading decisions,a robust model is built.This paper aims to build up an Evolutionary Deep Learning Model(EDLM)to identify stock trends’prices by using STIs.The proposed model has implemented the Deep Learning(DL)model to establish the concept of Correlation-Tensor.The analysis of the dataset of three most popular banking organizations obtained from the live stock market based on the National Stock exchange(NSE)-India,a Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)is used.The datasets encompassed the trading days from the 17^(th) of Nov 2008 to the 15^(th) of Nov 2018.This work also conducted exhaustive experiments to study the correlation of various STIs with stock price trends.The model built with an EDLM has shown significant improvements over two benchmark ML models and a deep learning one.The proposed model aids investors in making profitable investment decisions as it presents trend-based forecasting and has achieved a prediction accuracy of 63.59%,56.25%,and 57.95%on the datasets of HDFC,Yes Bank,and SBI,respectively.Results indicate that the proposed EDLA with a combination of STIs can often provide improved results than the other state-of-the-art algorithms.展开更多
The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the indus...The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities, and applied the framework to a case study in Shenyang. The following conclusions are drawn. First, since 1978, Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has shown fluctuation between ‘contraction-expansion'. As the secondary industry has a much stronger expansionary and contractionary capacity for growth, this results in lacking stability leading to industrial structure transformation. Second, since 1999, the orientation towards a high-end manufacturing industry in Shenyang has weakened, and the evolution of the new and old growth path is characterized by low-end orientation. Third, since 2007, Shenyang's industrial innovation output capacity has dropped sharply which has been significantly affected by scientific and technological personnel and enterprise-owed science and technology institutions and to a less extent by R&D expenditure. We applied the resilience theory to study the industrial evolution of an old industrial city, explored new study perspectives on industrial evolution and verified the applicability of the resilience theory. This paper provides a scientific reference for understanding the recent deceleration in economic growth in the Northeast old industrial base, and for exploring new paths toward revitalization.展开更多
To learn from evolutionary experimental data points effectively,an evolutionary Gaussian mixture model based on constraint consistency(EGMM)is proposed and the corresponding method of parameter optimization is present...To learn from evolutionary experimental data points effectively,an evolutionary Gaussian mixture model based on constraint consistency(EGMM)is proposed and the corresponding method of parameter optimization is presented.Here,the Gaussian mixture model(GMM)is adopted to describe the data points,and the differences between the posterior probabilities of pairwise points under the current parameters are introduced to measure the temporal smoothness.Then,parameter optimization of EGMM can be realized by evolutionary clustering.Compared with most of the existing data analysis methods by evolutionary clustering,both the whole features and individual differences of data points are considered in the clustering framework of EGMM.It decreases the algorithm sensitivity to noises and increases the robustness of evaluated parameters.Experimental result shows that the clustering sequence really reflects the shift of data distribution,and the proposed algorithm can provide better clustering quality and temporal smoothness.展开更多
Langshan, a monoclinic mountain, which started to uplift since Oligocene, bounds the northwest margin of the Hetao Basin. The continuous activity of the active normal Langshan range- front fault forms the typical basi...Langshan, a monoclinic mountain, which started to uplift since Oligocene, bounds the northwest margin of the Hetao Basin. The continuous activity of the active normal Langshan range- front fault forms the typical basin-and-range landform in Langshan area and controls the landform evolution of Langshan. Langshan is an ideal place to study relationship between quantitative geomor- phological index and active deformation. According to study on knickpoints, fitting on longitudinal channel profiles and steepness index, we demonstrate that the main controlling factors on distribution of normalized steepness index of channels are not climate （precipitation）, lithology, sediment flux, but tectonic factor, or the activity of Langshan range-front fault. The short channels in southeast flank, whose lengths are shorter than 16 km, may be still in the non-steady status. If not considering these short channels, the distribution of normalized steepness index along the Langshan range-front fault appears like M-shape pattern, while the normalized steepness index in the middle section is higher than those at both ends. This pattern is well consistent with geometrical segmentation model of the Langshan range-front fault. Combining previous active tectonic research on Langshan range-front fault, which demonstrates the Langshan range-front fault has been in the stage of linkup, we reasonably infer the Langshan range-front fault now is the result of linkup of both fault which continuously bilaterally ex- tended independently. Our tectonic geomorphological study also supports the conclusion that the Langshan range-front fault has been in the stage of linkup. The formation of several knickpoints due to tectonic factor may have been caused by slip-rate variation because of linkup of both independent faults. Based on cognition above, we also proposed the geological and geomorphological evolutionary model of the Langshan range-front fault since Oligocene.展开更多
Based on the fact that the software development cost is an important factorto control the whole project,we discuss the relationship between the software development cost andsoftware reliability according to the empiri...Based on the fact that the software development cost is an important factorto control the whole project,we discuss the relationship between the software development cost andsoftware reliability according to the empirieal data collected from the development process.Byevolutionary modeling we get an empirical model of the relationship between cost and softwarereliability,and validate the estimate results with the empirical data.展开更多
The timing of mammalian diversification in relation to the Cretaceous-Paleogene(KPg)mass extinction continues to be a subject of substantial debate.Previous studies have either focused on limited taxonomic samples wit...The timing of mammalian diversification in relation to the Cretaceous-Paleogene(KPg)mass extinction continues to be a subject of substantial debate.Previous studies have either focused on limited taxonomic samples with available whole-genome data or relied on short sequence alignments coupled with extensive species samples.In the present study,we improved an existing dataset from the landmark study of Meredith et al.(2011)by filling in missing fragments and further generated another dataset containing 120 taxa and 98 exonic markers.Using these two datasets,we then constructed phylogenies for extant mammalian families,providing improved resolution of many conflicting relationships.Moreover,the timetrees generated,which were calibrated using appropriate molecular clock models and multiple fossil records,indicated that the interordinal diversification of placental mammals initiated before the Late Cretaceous period.Additionally,intraordinal diversification of both extant placental and marsupial lineages accelerated after the KPg boundary,supporting the hypothesis that the availability of numerous vacant ecological niches subsequent to the mass extinction event facilitated rapid diversification.Thus,our results support a scenario of placental radiation characterized by both basal cladogenesis and active interordinal divergences spanning from the Late Cretaceous into the Paleogene.展开更多
The Dongpu Depression is a secondary salt-bearing tectonic unit in the Bohai Bay Basin,eastern China.The depositional environment of this depression regarding its Paleogene strata is clearly different in plane,includi...The Dongpu Depression is a secondary salt-bearing tectonic unit in the Bohai Bay Basin,eastern China.The depositional environment of this depression regarding its Paleogene strata is clearly different in plane,including the saltwater environment(SE)in the north,the freshwater environment(FE)in the south and the brackish water environment(BE)in the middle.The result of oil and gas exploration in the Dongpu Depression shows that more than 90%of the proven oil reserves are distributed in the northern saltwater environment.Previous studies indicate that the organic geochemistry characteristics and the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks are very clearly diverse under different environments,which results in the significant differences in the proved reserves between the north and the south.In order to further explore the differences in the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks under distinct depositional environments and the mechanism of their occurrence,three samples from different depositional environments(W18-5 for SE,H7-18 for BE,CH9 for FE)were used for confined gold tube pyrolysis experiments.The results show that the CH4 yields of W18-5,H7-18 and CH9 increase with increasing temperature,the maximum yields being 405.62 mg/g TOC,388.56 mg/g TOC and 367.89 mg/g TOC,respectively.The liquid hydrocarbon yields of W18-5,H7-18 and CH9 firstly increase with increasing temperature and then decrease after the critical temperatures.The maximum yields of C6-14 are 149.54 mg/g TOC,140.18 mg/g TOC and 116.94 mg/g TOC,the maximum yields of C14+being 852.4 mg/g TOC,652.6 mg/g TOC and 596.41 mg/g TOC,respectively for W18-5,H7-18 and CH9.To summarize,the order of hydrocarbon potential from high to low is W18-5,H7-18 and CH9.On this basis,through analyzing the influencing factors of hydrocarbon differences,this paper reveals that the saltwater environment is characterized by 4 factors:higher salinity,halophilic algae,high paleo-productivity and a strongly reducing environment,which are beneficial to the enrichment of organic matter and lead to the formation of high levels of sapropelite and exinite.According to the variation of oil and gas components in the pyrolysis experiments,the hydrocarbon generation process is divided into three stages:kerogen cracking,oil cracking and C2-5 cracking.Combined with hydrocarbon generation characteristics and stages,the evolutionary model of hydrocarbon generation for source rocks under different environments is established.展开更多
Three Cenozoic basins—the Qaidam basin, the Weihe graben-type basin and the North China plain—which are different in climatic conditions, geological settings and run—off types, are selected for the study. Based on ...Three Cenozoic basins—the Qaidam basin, the Weihe graben-type basin and the North China plain—which are different in climatic conditions, geological settings and run—off types, are selected for the study. Based on an analysis of background information of the transect along the middle-latitude region, studies of groundwater dynamics, geochemistry, simulation of water circulation of the main elements as well as isotopic chronology, the information on global changes is collected, the formation of groundwater circulation systems and their evolution under stacked impacts of natural conditions and human activities are discussed, and a correlation is made between the evolutionary features of the above systems in these basins since 25 ka B.P. All these have laid a good foundation for further generalizing the evolutionary model of land water in northern China.展开更多
A system designed for supporting the network performance analysis and forecast effort is presented, based on the combination of offline network analysis and online real-time performance forecast. The off-line analysis...A system designed for supporting the network performance analysis and forecast effort is presented, based on the combination of offline network analysis and online real-time performance forecast. The off-line analysis will perform analysis of specific network node performance, correlation analysis of relative network nodes performance and evolutionary mathematical modeling of long-term network performance measurements. The online real-time network performance forecast will be based on one so-called hybrid prediction modeling approach for short-term network, performance prediction and trend analysis. Based on the module design, the system proposed has good intelligence, scalability and self-adaptability, which will offer highly effective network performance analysis and forecast tools for network managers, and is one ideal support platform for network performance analysis and forecast effort.展开更多
文摘Free economic zone (FEZ) has a long history and plays a more and more important role in the world economy. Most studies, however, focused on the theoretical analysis of benefit and cost as well as the economic role of FEZ in the less developed countries and little attention has been paid to the evolution of FEZ. This paper will improve the above-mentioned studies and put forward the structural and spatial evolutionary model of FEZ by analyzing the development of objectives, preferential policy, governance structure, industrial sectors and location of FEZs based on the international economic and political development. FEZs develop towards: 1) more comprehensive and macro objectives, 2) more industry-oriented and multi-preferential policies, 3) more cross-national and combination zones with administrative areas, 4) more technology-intensive and multi-industries, 5) more flexible location and larger spatial dimensions, 6) more rapid evolution and typologies, and 7) more economic integration to the host economy.
文摘In this paper,we prove the local existence and uniqueness of solutions to the evolutionary model for magnetoviscoelasticity in R^(2),R^(3).This model consists of an incompressible Navier-Stokes,a regularized system for the evolution of the deformation gradient and the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert system for the dynamics of the mag-netization.Our approach depends on approximating the system with a sequence of perturbed systems.
基金funded by the project of "Strong Motion Records in the Seismic Resistance of the Tangshan Region ( No. 11276905D) ",Department of Science and Technology of Hebei Province,China
文摘Coulomb stress changes associated with strong earthquakes occurring since 1484 in Hebei Province,China are investigated. The North China block has had many large historical earthquakes and some damaging earthquakes in the past century,including the 1976 Tangshan earthquake (M =7.8) . The study area and the adjacent areas of the province comprise the most active seismic fault zones and suffer from both strong and frequent events. The North China Block,which includes the Ordos plateau and the North China plain,is part of the Archean Sino-Lorean craton and one of the most active seismic regions in the world. Its movement is accommodated on major strike-slip intraplate fault zones that strike in the E-W direction. The faults in the study area contribute to the complexity of the stress field. Seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb failure function ( ΔCFF) arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events (MS≥6.5) and the stress built up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults. At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence that the fault segments that are apt to fail in an impending strong event,thus providing future seismic hazard evaluation. In this paper,the results of ΔCFF for Zhangjiakou fault, Xiadian fault and Langfang fault have been shown as examples to express the possiblity of generating future seismic hazard.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 4107108, 40771075, 40371044 and 440071037)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘Central place theory is one of the two theoretical cornerstones of geography, yet it cannot be connected with other spatial structure models, fails to provide definite time-space parameter conditions, lacks an evolutionary process model, and does not easily enable construction of a complete theoretical system of regional spatial structure. This paper gives an in-depth analysis of the process and mechanism for production and evolution of central places of different grades, and constructs an evolutionary model of the central place hierarchical system. The results of deduction, analysis and simulation show that production and evolution of the central place hierarchical system may be divided into five stages. These stages are the embryonic, formative, improvement, maturation, and advancement stages. Affected by spatial location and centricity, central places have obvious differences in scale and functional structures. There are great differences in the scale of same-grade central places. However, low-grade central places could have larger scales than high-grade central places, and the central places of a central location may form the agglomeration area of central places. Based on the hypothesis condition of an isotropic plain, the research shows that it is possible not only to form proportional functional structures of central places, but also to produce non-proportional scale structures of central places, and thus to complete the transformation from rationalistic deduction of spatial equilibrium mode to an explanation and demonstration of an unbalanced practical model.
文摘In this paper, the high-level knowledge of financial data modeled by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is discovered in dynamic data by using an asynchronous parallel evolutionary modeling algorithm (APHEMA). A numerical example of Nasdaq index analysis is used to demonstrate the potential of APHEMA. The results show that the dynamic models automatically discovered in dynamic data by computer can be used to predict the financial trends.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 42075034.
文摘The time series of precipitation in flood season (May-September) at WuhanStation, which is set as an example of the kind of time series with chaos characters, is split intotwo parts: One includes macro climatic timescale period waves that are affected by some relativelysteady climatic factors such as astronomical factors (sunspot, etc.), some other known and/orunknown factors, and the other includes micro climatic timescale period waves superimposed on themacro one. The evolutionary modeling (EM), which develops from genetic programming (GP), is supposedto be adept at simulating the former part because it creates the nonlinear ordinary differentialequation (NODE) based upon the data series. The natural fractals (NF) are used to simulate thelatter part. The final prediction is the sum of results from both methods, thus the model canreflect multi-time scale effects of forcing factors in the climate system. The results of thisexample for 2002 and 2003 are satisfactory for climatic prediction operation. The NODE can suggestthat the data vary with time, which is beneficial to think over short-range climatic analysis andprediction. Comparison in principle between evolutionary modeling and linear modeling indicates thatthe evolutionary one is a better way to simulate the complex time series with nonlinearcharacteristics.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60133010,70071042,60073043)
文摘The mid-long term hydrology forecasting is one of most challenging problems in hydrological studies. This paper proposes an efficient dynamical system prediction model using evolutionary computation techniques. The new model overcomes some disadvantages of conventional hydrology forecasting ones. The observed data is divided into two parts; the slow 'smooth and steady' data, and the fast 'coarse and fluctuation' data. Under the divide and conquer strategy, the behavior of smooth data is modeled by ordinary differential equations based on evolutionary modeling, and that of the coarse data is modeled using gray correlative forecasting method. Our model is verified on the test data of the mid-long term hydrology forecast in the northeast region of China. The experimental results show that the model is superior to gray system prediction model (GSPM).
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grand No. 10575055)K. C. Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University
文摘We investigate a simple evolutionary game model in one dimension. It is found that the system exhibits a discontinuous phase transition from a defection state to a cooperation state when the b payoff of a defector exploiting a cooperator is small. Furthermore, if b is large enough, then the system exhibits two continuous phase transitions between two absorbing states and a coexistence state of cooperation and defection, respectively. The tri-critical point is roughly estimated. Moreover, it is found that the critical behavior of the continuous phase transition with an absorbing state is in the directed percolation universality class.
文摘In a multi-agent system, each agent must adapt itself to the environment and coordinate with other agents dynamically. TO predict or cooperate with the behavior of oiller agents. An agent should dynamically establish and evolve the cooperative behavior model of itself. In this paper, we represent the behavior model of an agent as a f-mite state machine and propose a new method of dynamically evolving the behavior model of an agent by evolutionary programming.
基金supported in part by the NIH grant R01CA241134supported in part by the NSF grant CMMI-1552764+3 种基金supported in part by the NSF grants DMS-1349724 and DMS-2052465supported in part by the NSF grant CCF-1740761supported in part by the U.S.-Norway Fulbright Foundation and the Research Council of Norway R&D Grant 309273supported in part by the Norwegian Centennial Chair grant and the Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship from the University of Minnesota.
文摘The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the Moran model, individuals first reproduce according to their fitness and then replace a neighboring individual. From a biological standpoint, the opposite dynamics, where individuals first die and are then replaced by a neighboring individual according to its fitness, are equally relevant. Here, we investigate this death-birth analogue of the biased voter model. We construct the process mathematically, derive the associated dual process, establish bounds on the survival probability of a single mutant, and prove that the process has an asymptotic shape. We also briefly discuss alternative birth-death and death-birth dynamics, depending on how the mutant fitness advantage affects the dynamics. We show that birth-death and death-birth formulations of the biased voter model are equivalent when fitness affects the former event of each update of the model, whereas the birth-death model is fundamentally different from the death-birth model when fitness affects the latter event.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60133010,70071042,60073043)
文摘First, an asynchronous distributed parallel evolutionary modeling algorithm (PEMA) for building the model of system of ordinary differential equations for dynamical systems is proposed in this paper. Then a series of parallel experiments have been conducted to systematically test the influence of some important parallel control parameters on the performance of the algorithm. A lot of experimental results are obtained and we make some analysis and explanations to them.
基金Funding is provided by Taif University Researchers Supporting Project Number(TURSP-2020/10),Taif University,Taif,Saudi Arabia.
文摘Stock market trends forecast is one of the most current topics and a significant research challenge due to its dynamic and unstable nature.The stock data is usually non-stationary,and attributes are non-correlative to each other.Several traditional Stock Technical Indicators(STIs)may incorrectly predict the stockmarket trends.To study the stock market characteristics using STIs and make efficient trading decisions,a robust model is built.This paper aims to build up an Evolutionary Deep Learning Model(EDLM)to identify stock trends’prices by using STIs.The proposed model has implemented the Deep Learning(DL)model to establish the concept of Correlation-Tensor.The analysis of the dataset of three most popular banking organizations obtained from the live stock market based on the National Stock exchange(NSE)-India,a Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)is used.The datasets encompassed the trading days from the 17^(th) of Nov 2008 to the 15^(th) of Nov 2018.This work also conducted exhaustive experiments to study the correlation of various STIs with stock price trends.The model built with an EDLM has shown significant improvements over two benchmark ML models and a deep learning one.The proposed model aids investors in making profitable investment decisions as it presents trend-based forecasting and has achieved a prediction accuracy of 63.59%,56.25%,and 57.95%on the datasets of HDFC,Yes Bank,and SBI,respectively.Results indicate that the proposed EDLA with a combination of STIs can often provide improved results than the other state-of-the-art algorithms.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41571152,41771179,41630749,41601124)the Key Deployment Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.ZDBS-SSW-SQC)135 Planning and Featured Services Projects of IGA,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.Y6H2091001)
文摘The recession and revitalization of old industrial cities concerns urban industrial evolution and its characteristics. Based on the theory of evolutionary resilience, we developed an analytical framework for the industrial structure evolution of old industrial cities, and applied the framework to a case study in Shenyang. The following conclusions are drawn. First, since 1978, Shenyang's industrial growth capacity has shown fluctuation between ‘contraction-expansion'. As the secondary industry has a much stronger expansionary and contractionary capacity for growth, this results in lacking stability leading to industrial structure transformation. Second, since 1999, the orientation towards a high-end manufacturing industry in Shenyang has weakened, and the evolution of the new and old growth path is characterized by low-end orientation. Third, since 2007, Shenyang's industrial innovation output capacity has dropped sharply which has been significantly affected by scientific and technological personnel and enterprise-owed science and technology institutions and to a less extent by R&D expenditure. We applied the resilience theory to study the industrial evolution of an old industrial city, explored new study perspectives on industrial evolution and verified the applicability of the resilience theory. This paper provides a scientific reference for understanding the recent deceleration in economic growth in the Northeast old industrial base, and for exploring new paths toward revitalization.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61202137)the Open Project Foundation of Information Technology Research Base of Civil Aviation Administration of China(CAAC-ITRB-201302)+1 种基金the University Natural Science Basic Research Project of Jiangsu Province(13KJB520004)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(NS2012134)
文摘To learn from evolutionary experimental data points effectively,an evolutionary Gaussian mixture model based on constraint consistency(EGMM)is proposed and the corresponding method of parameter optimization is presented.Here,the Gaussian mixture model(GMM)is adopted to describe the data points,and the differences between the posterior probabilities of pairwise points under the current parameters are introduced to measure the temporal smoothness.Then,parameter optimization of EGMM can be realized by evolutionary clustering.Compared with most of the existing data analysis methods by evolutionary clustering,both the whole features and individual differences of data points are considered in the clustering framework of EGMM.It decreases the algorithm sensitivity to noises and increases the robustness of evaluated parameters.Experimental result shows that the clustering sequence really reflects the shift of data distribution,and the proposed algorithm can provide better clustering quality and temporal smoothness.
基金funded jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41402187, 41372220, 41590861, 41661134011)
文摘Langshan, a monoclinic mountain, which started to uplift since Oligocene, bounds the northwest margin of the Hetao Basin. The continuous activity of the active normal Langshan range- front fault forms the typical basin-and-range landform in Langshan area and controls the landform evolution of Langshan. Langshan is an ideal place to study relationship between quantitative geomor- phological index and active deformation. According to study on knickpoints, fitting on longitudinal channel profiles and steepness index, we demonstrate that the main controlling factors on distribution of normalized steepness index of channels are not climate （precipitation）, lithology, sediment flux, but tectonic factor, or the activity of Langshan range-front fault. The short channels in southeast flank, whose lengths are shorter than 16 km, may be still in the non-steady status. If not considering these short channels, the distribution of normalized steepness index along the Langshan range-front fault appears like M-shape pattern, while the normalized steepness index in the middle section is higher than those at both ends. This pattern is well consistent with geometrical segmentation model of the Langshan range-front fault. Combining previous active tectonic research on Langshan range-front fault, which demonstrates the Langshan range-front fault has been in the stage of linkup, we reasonably infer the Langshan range-front fault now is the result of linkup of both fault which continuously bilaterally ex- tended independently. Our tectonic geomorphological study also supports the conclusion that the Langshan range-front fault has been in the stage of linkup. The formation of several knickpoints due to tectonic factor may have been caused by slip-rate variation because of linkup of both independent faults. Based on cognition above, we also proposed the geological and geomorphological evolutionary model of the Langshan range-front fault since Oligocene.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foun dation of China(60173063)
文摘Based on the fact that the software development cost is an important factorto control the whole project,we discuss the relationship between the software development cost andsoftware reliability according to the empirieal data collected from the development process.Byevolutionary modeling we get an empirical model of the relationship between cost and softwarereliability,and validate the estimate results with the empirical data.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2021YFC2301300)National Natural Science Foundation of China (82050002,32070528,32100335,32000287)Beijing Natural Sciences Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars (JQ19022)。
文摘The timing of mammalian diversification in relation to the Cretaceous-Paleogene(KPg)mass extinction continues to be a subject of substantial debate.Previous studies have either focused on limited taxonomic samples with available whole-genome data or relied on short sequence alignments coupled with extensive species samples.In the present study,we improved an existing dataset from the landmark study of Meredith et al.(2011)by filling in missing fragments and further generated another dataset containing 120 taxa and 98 exonic markers.Using these two datasets,we then constructed phylogenies for extant mammalian families,providing improved resolution of many conflicting relationships.Moreover,the timetrees generated,which were calibrated using appropriate molecular clock models and multiple fossil records,indicated that the interordinal diversification of placental mammals initiated before the Late Cretaceous period.Additionally,intraordinal diversification of both extant placental and marsupial lineages accelerated after the KPg boundary,supporting the hypothesis that the availability of numerous vacant ecological niches subsequent to the mass extinction event facilitated rapid diversification.Thus,our results support a scenario of placental radiation characterized by both basal cladogenesis and active interordinal divergences spanning from the Late Cretaceous into the Paleogene.
基金granted by the Science Foundation of the Chinese University of Petroleum,Beijing(Grant No.2462020YXZZ021)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41872128)。
文摘The Dongpu Depression is a secondary salt-bearing tectonic unit in the Bohai Bay Basin,eastern China.The depositional environment of this depression regarding its Paleogene strata is clearly different in plane,including the saltwater environment(SE)in the north,the freshwater environment(FE)in the south and the brackish water environment(BE)in the middle.The result of oil and gas exploration in the Dongpu Depression shows that more than 90%of the proven oil reserves are distributed in the northern saltwater environment.Previous studies indicate that the organic geochemistry characteristics and the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks are very clearly diverse under different environments,which results in the significant differences in the proved reserves between the north and the south.In order to further explore the differences in the hydrocarbon generation capacity of the source rocks under distinct depositional environments and the mechanism of their occurrence,three samples from different depositional environments(W18-5 for SE,H7-18 for BE,CH9 for FE)were used for confined gold tube pyrolysis experiments.The results show that the CH4 yields of W18-5,H7-18 and CH9 increase with increasing temperature,the maximum yields being 405.62 mg/g TOC,388.56 mg/g TOC and 367.89 mg/g TOC,respectively.The liquid hydrocarbon yields of W18-5,H7-18 and CH9 firstly increase with increasing temperature and then decrease after the critical temperatures.The maximum yields of C6-14 are 149.54 mg/g TOC,140.18 mg/g TOC and 116.94 mg/g TOC,the maximum yields of C14+being 852.4 mg/g TOC,652.6 mg/g TOC and 596.41 mg/g TOC,respectively for W18-5,H7-18 and CH9.To summarize,the order of hydrocarbon potential from high to low is W18-5,H7-18 and CH9.On this basis,through analyzing the influencing factors of hydrocarbon differences,this paper reveals that the saltwater environment is characterized by 4 factors:higher salinity,halophilic algae,high paleo-productivity and a strongly reducing environment,which are beneficial to the enrichment of organic matter and lead to the formation of high levels of sapropelite and exinite.According to the variation of oil and gas components in the pyrolysis experiments,the hydrocarbon generation process is divided into three stages:kerogen cracking,oil cracking and C2-5 cracking.Combined with hydrocarbon generation characteristics and stages,the evolutionary model of hydrocarbon generation for source rocks under different environments is established.
基金This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Grant 49672185.
文摘Three Cenozoic basins—the Qaidam basin, the Weihe graben-type basin and the North China plain—which are different in climatic conditions, geological settings and run—off types, are selected for the study. Based on an analysis of background information of the transect along the middle-latitude region, studies of groundwater dynamics, geochemistry, simulation of water circulation of the main elements as well as isotopic chronology, the information on global changes is collected, the formation of groundwater circulation systems and their evolution under stacked impacts of natural conditions and human activities are discussed, and a correlation is made between the evolutionary features of the above systems in these basins since 25 ka B.P. All these have laid a good foundation for further generalizing the evolutionary model of land water in northern China.
基金the National 863 High-Tech Project (863 -3 0 0 -0 2 -0 9-99) and Key Research Project of Hubei Province(991P110 )
文摘A system designed for supporting the network performance analysis and forecast effort is presented, based on the combination of offline network analysis and online real-time performance forecast. The off-line analysis will perform analysis of specific network node performance, correlation analysis of relative network nodes performance and evolutionary mathematical modeling of long-term network performance measurements. The online real-time network performance forecast will be based on one so-called hybrid prediction modeling approach for short-term network, performance prediction and trend analysis. Based on the module design, the system proposed has good intelligence, scalability and self-adaptability, which will offer highly effective network performance analysis and forecast tools for network managers, and is one ideal support platform for network performance analysis and forecast effort.
