Introduction Climate change is intensifying extreme heat events,positioning heat-related illness as an escalating public health threat.However,multiprovincial,individual-level evidence quantifying the association betw...Introduction Climate change is intensifying extreme heat events,positioning heat-related illness as an escalating public health threat.However,multiprovincial,individual-level evidence quantifying the association between elevated temperatures and heatrelated illness in China remains limited.Methods This multi-provincial study employed a time-stratified case-crossover design.Individual heatrelated illness case data(2013–2022)were obtained from the Heat-related Illness Report System,which collects reports from local healthcare facilities and CDCs across 11 provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs).We evaluated associations between daily mean and maximum temperatures and heatrelated illness risk across multiple lag periods(lag0 to lag07),with lag01 designated a priori as the primary exposure window.Effect estimates are presented as relative risks(RR)and percentage changes in RR per 1℃ temperature increase.Subgroup analyses examined potential effect modification by sex,age,heat-related illness subtype,heat intensity,and geographic location.Results Between 2013 and 2022,53,061 heatrelated illness cases were recorded across study areas,with annual counts rising throughout the decade and reaching a peak of 14,025 in 2022.Although mild cases predominated each year(maximum 83.0%in 2015),the proportion of severe cases exhibited a concerning gradual increase.Regarding temperature associations,each 1℃ increase in daily mean temperature corresponded to a 21.03%(95%CI:20.59,21.47)elevation in the RR of heat-related illness.Daily maximum temperature demonstrated a comparable pattern,though risk estimates were marginally lower.Conclusion This study demonstrates a clear upward trend in heat-related illness incidence linked to climate change and confirms that elevated temperatures significantly increase disease risk.The escalating health burden necessitates urgent development and implementation of targeted heat-health action plans to protect vulnerable populations.展开更多
基金Supported by the Major Project of Guangzhou National Laboratory(No.GZNL2024A01025)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52272340).
文摘Introduction Climate change is intensifying extreme heat events,positioning heat-related illness as an escalating public health threat.However,multiprovincial,individual-level evidence quantifying the association between elevated temperatures and heatrelated illness in China remains limited.Methods This multi-provincial study employed a time-stratified case-crossover design.Individual heatrelated illness case data(2013–2022)were obtained from the Heat-related Illness Report System,which collects reports from local healthcare facilities and CDCs across 11 provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs).We evaluated associations between daily mean and maximum temperatures and heatrelated illness risk across multiple lag periods(lag0 to lag07),with lag01 designated a priori as the primary exposure window.Effect estimates are presented as relative risks(RR)and percentage changes in RR per 1℃ temperature increase.Subgroup analyses examined potential effect modification by sex,age,heat-related illness subtype,heat intensity,and geographic location.Results Between 2013 and 2022,53,061 heatrelated illness cases were recorded across study areas,with annual counts rising throughout the decade and reaching a peak of 14,025 in 2022.Although mild cases predominated each year(maximum 83.0%in 2015),the proportion of severe cases exhibited a concerning gradual increase.Regarding temperature associations,each 1℃ increase in daily mean temperature corresponded to a 21.03%(95%CI:20.59,21.47)elevation in the RR of heat-related illness.Daily maximum temperature demonstrated a comparable pattern,though risk estimates were marginally lower.Conclusion This study demonstrates a clear upward trend in heat-related illness incidence linked to climate change and confirms that elevated temperatures significantly increase disease risk.The escalating health burden necessitates urgent development and implementation of targeted heat-health action plans to protect vulnerable populations.
