AIM:To build a functional generalized estimating equation(GEE)model to detect glaucomatous visual field progression and compare the performance of the proposed method with that of commonly employed algorithms.METHODS:...AIM:To build a functional generalized estimating equation(GEE)model to detect glaucomatous visual field progression and compare the performance of the proposed method with that of commonly employed algorithms.METHODS:Totally 716 eyes of 716 patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG)with at least 5 reliable 24-2 test results and 2y of follow-up were selected.The functional GEE model was used to detect perimetric progression in the training dataset(501 eyes).In the testing dataset(215 eyes),progression was evaluated the functional GEE model,mean deviation(MD)and visual field index(VFI)rates of change,Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study(AGIS)and Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study(CIGTS)scores,and pointwise linear regression(PLR).RESULTS:The proposed method showed the highest proportion of eyes detected as progression(54.4%),followed by the VFI rate(34.4%),PLR(23.3%),and MD rate(21.4%).The CIGTS and AGIS scores had a lower proportion of eyes detected as progression(7.9%and 5.1%,respectively).The time to detection of progression was significantly shorter for the proposed method than that of other algorithms(adjusted P≤0.019).The VFI rate displayed moderate pairwise agreement with the proposed method(k=0.47).CONCLUSION:The functional GEE model shows the highest proportion of eyes detected as perimetric progression and the shortest time to detect perimetric progression in patients with POAG.展开更多
The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 induced a huge number of landslides. The distribution and volume of the landslides are very important for assessing risks and understanding the landslide - debris flow - ...The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 induced a huge number of landslides. The distribution and volume of the landslides are very important for assessing risks and understanding the landslide - debris flow - barrier lake - bursts flood disaster chain. The number and the area of landslides in a wide region can be easily obtained by remote sensing technique, while the volume is relatively difficult to obtain because it requires some detailed geometric information of slope failure surface and sub-surface. Different empirical models for estimating landslide volume were discussed based on the data of 107 landslides in the earthquake-stricken area. The volume data of these landslides were collected by field survey. Their areas were obtained by interpreting remote sensing images while their apparent friction coefficients and height were extracted from the images unifying DEM (digital elevation model). By analyzing the relationships between the volume and the area, apparent friction coefficients, and the height, two models were established, one for the adaptation of a magnitude scale landslide events in a wide range of region, another for the adaptation in a small scope. The correlation coefficients (R2) are 0.7977 and 0.8913, respectively. The results estimated by the two models agree well with the measurement data.展开更多
In this paper,we study and characterize the volume estimates of geodesic balls on Finsler gradient Ricci solitons.We get the upper bounds on the volumes of geodesic balls of all three kinds of Finsler gradient Ricci s...In this paper,we study and characterize the volume estimates of geodesic balls on Finsler gradient Ricci solitons.We get the upper bounds on the volumes of geodesic balls of all three kinds of Finsler gradient Ricci solitons under certain condition about the Laplacian of thedistance function.展开更多
This research considers the tracking problem of a moving target in distributed sensor networks with a limited sensing range(LSR)affected by non-Gaussian noise.In such sensor networks,observation loss due to LSR is a p...This research considers the tracking problem of a moving target in distributed sensor networks with a limited sensing range(LSR)affected by non-Gaussian noise.In such sensor networks,observation loss due to LSR is a prevalent issue that has received insufficient attention.We introduce a time-varying random variable to describe whether the sensor observes a moving target at each moment.When a single sensor node is unable to receive information from other nodes,it cannot update its state estimation of the moving target once the target moves beyond this node’s observation range.We propose an information flow topology within distributed sensor networks to facilitate the reception of prior state estimation data transmitted by neighboring nodes.Based on this information,a quadratic distributed estimator is designed for each sensor,and an output injection term is introduced to handle unstable systems.Finally,a numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.展开更多
Background: Biological maturation refers to the progressive process through which individuals transition toward an adult state during growth and development. To address the challenges posed by differences in biologica...Background: Biological maturation refers to the progressive process through which individuals transition toward an adult state during growth and development. To address the challenges posed by differences in biological maturity and the limitations of existing testing methods, particularly in adolescent sports contexts, there is a pressing need for a non-invasive method that is convenient, accurate, and broadly applicable to monitor the biological maturity of adolescent athletes comprehensively. In response to this need, a maturity assessment method based on the smartphone application Maturo has been developed. This study evaluates the accuracy and validity of the Maturo software, an automated tool for estimating biological age and related maturation metrics.Methods: A sample of 103 actively training teenage athletes aged 9-17 years. The sample included 76 males(age = 11.74 ± 1.55 years, mean ±SD) and 27 females(age = 13.95 ± 1.40 years), all without medical conditions that might impact growth or development.Results: Compared to traditional expert evaluations, the intraclass correlation coefficients(ICCs) and Pearson correlation coefficients demonstrated reliable positive correlations and significant agreement between the Maturo software and expert methods across multiple metrics, such as biological age(ICC = 0.965, R = 0.97), corrected biological age(ICC = 0.973, R = 0.99), predicted adult height(ICC = 0.991, R = 0.99), and percentage of adult height achieved(ICC = 0.955, R = 0.97). The Bland-Altman plots provided additional evidence of the validity of the Maturo software estimations, showing low systematic error in most measures. The linear regression analysis produced excellent adjusted R2values: 0.95for biological age and 0.99 for anticipated adult height. The Maturo approach demonstrated a high level of dependability in classifying teenagers into groups based on their maturity status and timing. The κ coefficients of 0.93 for maturity status and 0.82 for maturity timing indicate a nearly perfect agreement with the expert technique.Conclusion: While the Maturo software's non-invasive nature, cost-effectiveness, and ease of use could make it a potential tool for regular monitoring of growth and maturation in young athletes, its promising results in assessing maturation should be interpreted with caution due to limitations such as sample size and demographic constraints. Further longitude research with larger and more diverse populations is needed to validate these preliminary findings and strengthen the evidence for its broader applicability.展开更多
Geological storage in salt caverns plays a critical role in managing energy resources,yet regional assessments often fall short in accounting for specific salt dome morphological variations that can significantly infl...Geological storage in salt caverns plays a critical role in managing energy resources,yet regional assessments often fall short in accounting for specific salt dome morphological variations that can significantly influence cavern engineering and storage capacity.To address this gap,we developed a refined approach to modeling salt domes,incorporating primary axis tilt,ellipticity,and conic taper.These geometric modifications are applied to a cylindrical baseline salt dome model to assess the effects on total salt volume,workable salt volume,and cavern storage potential.Case studies of four salt domes from the East Texas Salt Basin—Mount Sylvan,Boggy Creek,Steen,and Hainesville—validate the observed trends from the models.Our findings reveal that positive cone taper and primary axis tilt configurations enhance storage potential,leading to significant increases in potential cavern volume,while ellipticity and negative cone taper result in reduced storage capacities.The study underscores the importance of refining volumetric assessments by accounting for detailed morphologic variations,providing a more accurate framework for site-specific geological storage evaluations.Additionally,we discuss challenges related to intra-salt heterogeneities,including intra-salt deformation and mineralogical impurities,highlighting the need for improved site characterization to optimize the safety and efficiency of subsurface storage systems.This work contributes to the development of scalable and reliable geological storage infrastructure,essential for meeting future energy demands.展开更多
Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency d...Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.展开更多
Axle box bearings serve as crucial components within the transmission system of high-speed trains.Their failure can directly impact the operational safety of these trains.Accurately determining the dynamic load experi...Axle box bearings serve as crucial components within the transmission system of high-speed trains.Their failure can directly impact the operational safety of these trains.Accurately determining the dynamic load experienced by bearings during the operation of high-speed trains can provide valuable boundary inputs for the study of bearing fatigue life and service performance,thereby holding significant engineering implications.In this study,we propose a high-speed train axle box bearing load estimation method(FMCC-DKF).This method is founded on the Kalman filtering technique of the Maximum Correntropy Criterion(MCC)and employs dummy measurement technology to enhance the stability of estimated loads.We develop a kernel size update algorithm to address the challenges associated with obtaining the key parameter,kernel size of MCC.Comparative analysis of the vertical and lateral loads of the axle box bearing obtained using FMCC-DKF,DKF,and AMCC-DKF,under both measurement noise-free and non-Gaussian noise conditions,is conducted to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed estimation method.The results indicate that the proposed FMCC-DKF method exhibits high estimation accuracy under both measurement noise-free and non-Gaussian noise interference,and maintains its high estimation accuracy despite changes in train speed.The proposed load estimation method demonstrates reliable performance within the low-frequency domain below 70 Hz.展开更多
Elevation change monitoring of the Antarctic ice sheet has been a key issue in global change research.Satellite altimetry has been proven to be effective in detecting ice sheet variations. With the development of ICES...Elevation change monitoring of the Antarctic ice sheet has been a key issue in global change research.Satellite altimetry has been proven to be effective in detecting ice sheet variations. With the development of ICESat-2, many elevation observations can be used to derive elevation changes. However, the large amount of multitemporal data may include anomalous data points, increasing the uncertainty of the results. In this work, we improved the traditional repeat track method by introducing the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Ⅲ(IGGⅢ) method to obtain high-accuracy estimates of elevation change. The improved method was applied to analyze elevation changes along the transect from Zhongshan Station to Dome A in East Antarctica via ICESat-2 satellite altimetry data. The results show that the improved and traditional methods yield consistent numerical and spatial elevation change distributions. The elevation change calculated via the traditional method is 0.033 ± 0.131 m/yr, whereas the elevation change estimated via the IGGⅢ robust estimation method is 0.033 ± 0.109 m/yr from March 2019 to December 2021.In terms of spatial distribution, elevation changes in inland areas remain close to equilibrium, whereas regions with steeper ice sheet margins exhibit positive accumulation trends in elevation changes. The improved method reduces the standard error of the adjustment function from 0.975 to 0.691 m/yr. The improvement is particularly remarkable in the area between 72°S and 77°S. The results demonstrate that the IGGⅢ method effectively reduces errors caused by the inclusion of anomalous data and maintains the high data utilization rate of repeat-orbit methods.展开更多
BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP),a severe pancreatic inflammatory condition,with a mor-tality rate reaching up to 40%.Recently,AP shows a steadily elevating prevalence,which causes the greater number of hospital admi...BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP),a severe pancreatic inflammatory condition,with a mor-tality rate reaching up to 40%.Recently,AP shows a steadily elevating prevalence,which causes the greater number of hospital admissions,imposing the substantial economic burden.Acute kidney injury(AKI)complicates take up approximately 15%of AP cases,with an associated mortality rate of 74.7%-81%.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of estimated plasma volume status(ePVS)in forecasting AKI in patients with AP.METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,AP cases were recruited from the First College of Clinical Medical Science of China Three Gorges University between January 2019 and October 2023.Electronic medical records were adopted for data extrac-tion,including demographic data and clinical characteristics.The association between ePVS and AKI was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models,with potential confounders being adjusted.Nonlinear relationship was examined with smooth curve fitting,and infection points were calculated.Further analyses were performed on stratified subgroups and interaction tests were conducted.RESULTS Among the 1508 AP patients,251(16.6%)developed AKI.ePVS was calculated using Duarte(D-ePVS)and Kaplan-Hakim(KH-ePVS)formulas.After adjusting for covariates,the AKI risk exhibited 46%[odds ratio(OR)=1.46,95%confidence interval(CI):0.96-2.24]and 11%(OR=1.11,95%CI:0.72-1.72)increases in the low tertile(T1)of D-ePVS and KH-ePVS,respectively,and 101%(OR=2.01,95%CI:1.31-3.05)and 51%(OR=1.51,95%CI:1.00-2.29)increases in the high tertile(T3)relative to the reference tertile(T2).Nonlinear curve fitting revealed a U-shaped association of D-ePVS with AKI and a J-shaped association for KH-ePVS,with inflection points at 4.3 dL/g and-2.8%,res-pectively.Significant interactions were not observed in age,gender,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,sequential organ failure assessment score,or AP severity(all P for interaction>0.05).CONCLUSION Our results indicated that ePVS demonstrated the nonlinear association with AKI incidence in AP patients.A U-shaped curve was observed with an inflection point at 4.3 dL/g for the Duarte formula,and a J-shaped curve at-2.8%for the Kaplan-Hakim formula.展开更多
The distribution of the sediment material storage quantity along the debris flow channels(SMSQ_DFC)can provide a foundation for runoffgenerated debris flow prediction or susceptibility assessment.Current models for es...The distribution of the sediment material storage quantity along the debris flow channels(SMSQ_DFC)can provide a foundation for runoffgenerated debris flow prediction or susceptibility assessment.Current models for estimating SMSQ_DFC do not consider the capacity of the channel cross-section to accommodate sediment materials.This accommodation condition serves as a limiting factor in determining whether the expected surplus of sediment materials can ultimately be stored.To address this issue,a mass-conservative index was used to represent the balance of deposit materials at any cross-section,considering the influx from upstream,outflux to downstream,and accommodation capacity.Based on this index,a new model for estimating SMSQ_DFC was developed and subsequently evaluated.The evaluation results show that the model meets the accuracy requirements with average error rates of 14.06%for self-validation and 14.81%for generalization ability validation.To assess its practical applications,the model was applied to the Yeniu Gully in Wenchuan County,Sichuan Province,an area with detailed field survey data.The results show that the model exhibits a commendable performance.Compared to traditional theoretical and semi-theoretical statistical models,our model is easier to use(input parameters can be obtained using Geographic Information Systems(GIS)).The modeling parameters chosen in this study have more theoretical significance than those used in existing purely statistical models,offering more effective technical support for estimating SMSQ_DFC.展开更多
Aging is an inevitable process that is usually measured by chronological age,with people aged 65 and over being defined as"older individuals".There is disagreement in the current scientific literature regard...Aging is an inevitable process that is usually measured by chronological age,with people aged 65 and over being defined as"older individuals".There is disagreement in the current scientific literature regarding the best methods to estimate glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)in older adults.Several studies suggest the use of an age-adjusted definition to improve accuracy and avoid overdiagnosis.In contrast,some researchers argue that such changes could complicate the classification of chronic kidney disease(CKD).Several formulas,including the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease,CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration,and Cockcroft-Gault equations,are used to estimate eGFR.However,each of these formulas has significant limitations when applied to older adults,primarily due to sarcopenia and malnutrition,which greatly affect both muscle mass and creatinine levels.Alternative formulas,such as the Berlin Initiative Study and the Full Age Spectrum equations,provide more accurate estimates of values for older adults by accounting for age-related physiological changes.In frail older adults,the use of cystatin C leads to better eGFR calculations to assess renal function.Accurate eGFR measurements improve the health of older patients by enabling better medication dosing.A thorough approach that includes multiple calibrated diagnostic methods and a detailed geriatric assessment is necessary for the effective management of kidney disease and other age-related conditions in older adults.展开更多
The establishment of crop yield estimating model based on microwave and optical satellite images can conduct the mutual verification of the accuracy of the reported crop yield and the precision of the estimating model...The establishment of crop yield estimating model based on microwave and optical satellite images can conduct the mutual verification of the accuracy of the reported crop yield and the precision of the estimating model. With Shou County and Huaiyuan County of Anhui Province as the experimental fields of winter wheat producing areas, the linear winter wheat yield estimating models were established by adopting backscattering coefficient and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） based on images from the synthetic aperture radar（SAR）—RDARSAT-2 and HJ satellite photographed in mid-April and early May, 2014, and then comparisons were conducted on the accuracy of the yield estimating models. The accuracies of the yield estimating models established using co-polarized（HH） and cross-polarized（HV） modes of SAR in Jiangou Town, Shou County were 68.37% and 74.01%, respectively, while the accuracies in Longkang Town, Huaiyuan County were 63.10%and 69.10%, respectively. Accuracies of yield estimating models established by HJ satellite data were 69.52% and 66.43% in Shou County and Huaiyuan County, respectively. Accuracies of winter yield estimating model based on HJ satellite data and that based on SAR were closed, and the yield difference of winter wheat in the lodging region was analyzed in detail. The model results laid the foundation and accumulated experience for the verification, parameters correction and promotion of the winter wheat yield estimating model.展开更多
An innovative approach based on water environmental capacity for non-point source NPS pollution removal rate estimation was discussed by using both univariate and multivariate data analysis.Taking Shenzhen city as the...An innovative approach based on water environmental capacity for non-point source NPS pollution removal rate estimation was discussed by using both univariate and multivariate data analysis.Taking Shenzhen city as the study case a 67% to 74% NPS pollutant load removal rate can lead to meeting the chemical oxygen demand COD pollution control target for most watersheds.In contrast it is hardly to achieve the ammonia nitrogen NH4-N total phosphorus TP and biological oxygen demand BOD5 pollution control target by simply removing NPS pollutants. This highlights that the pollution control strategies should be taken according to different pollutant species and sources in different watersheds rather than one-size-fits-all .展开更多
A new adaptive detail preserving filter for image processing is presented.By comparing the difference of the values evaluated in the different directions or regions,this filter can decide wh...A new adaptive detail preserving filter for image processing is presented.By comparing the difference of the values evaluated in the different directions or regions,this filter can decide which region (homogeneous region or detail region) the filtering pixels belong to and then apply different filtering schemes.This filter has better performance of noise filtering and detail preserving than the multistage median filter (MMF).It can be applied especially to the images simultaneously corrupted by Gaussian noise and impulsive noise,and is simple in computation and implementation.展开更多
Despite the widespread presence and frequent detection of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)in various aspects of life,there is limited research on their exposure levels in pregnant women and cumulative exposure f...Despite the widespread presence and frequent detection of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)in various aspects of life,there is limited research on their exposure levels in pregnant women and cumulative exposure from the living environment.This study included 1311 women in late pregnancy from the Zunyi birth cohort and measured the urinary concentrations of 10 hydroxylated PAH metabolites(OH-PAHs).Risk assessment was conducted based on the estimated daily intake to calculate the hazard quotient and hazard index(HI).A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between creatinine-adjusted OH-PAHs concentrations and living environment and lifestyle factors,while principal component analysis was applied to trace the sources of PAHs exposure.1-OHPYR was detected in all participants’urine,with naphthalene metabolites having the highest concentrations among creatinine-adjusted PAHs.OH-PAHs concentrations were associated with housing type,room number,cooking frequency,household size,exercise frequency,fuel type,distance from main road,and drinking water source.Pregnant women using traditional fuels and living in bungalows had higher health risks than those using clean energy and living in buildings.Those living within 100 m of a main road had higher HI than those farther away.Coal combustion was identified as the primary source of PAHs exposure.The study emphasizes the importance of reducing PAHs exposure,especially for pregnant women living in polluted environments.It recommends public health interventions such as improving indoor ventilation and providing clean energy to reduce related health risks.展开更多
Accurate time delay estimation of target echo signals is a critical component of underwater target localization.In active sonar systems,echo signal processing is vulnerable to the effects of reverberation and noise in...Accurate time delay estimation of target echo signals is a critical component of underwater target localization.In active sonar systems,echo signal processing is vulnerable to the effects of reverberation and noise in the maritime environment.This paper proposes a novel method for estimating target time delay using multi-bright spot echoes,assuming the target’s size and depth are known.Aiming to effectively enhance the extraction of geometric features from the target echoes and mitigate the impact of reverberation and noise,the proposed approach employs the fractional order Fourier transform-frequency sliced wavelet transform to extract multi-bright spot echoes.Using the highlighting model theory and the target size information,an observation matrix is constructed to represent multi-angle incident signals and obtain the theoretical scattered echo signals from different angles.Aiming to accurately estimate the target’s time delay,waveform similarity coefficients and mean square error values between the theoretical return signals and received signals are computed across various incident angles and time delays.Simulation results show that,compared to the conventional matched filter,the proposed algorithm reduces the relative error by 65.9%-91.5%at a signal-to noise ratio of-25 dB,and by 66.7%-88.9%at a signal-to-reverberation ratio of−10 dB.This algorithm provides a new approach for the precise localization of submerged targets in shallow water environments.展开更多
Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analys...Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.展开更多
The existing research of steering efficiency mainly focuses on the mechanism efficiency of steering system, aiming at designing and optimizing the mechanism of steering system. In the development of assist steering sy...The existing research of steering efficiency mainly focuses on the mechanism efficiency of steering system, aiming at designing and optimizing the mechanism of steering system. In the development of assist steering system especially the evaluation of its comfort, the steering efficiency of driver physiological output usually are not considered, because this physiological output is difficult to measure or to estimate, and the objective evaluation of steering comfort therefore cannot be conducted with movement efficiency perspective. In order to take a further step to the objective evaluation of steering comfort, an estimating method for the steering efficiency of the driver was developed based on the research of the relationship between the steering force and muscle activity. First, the steering forces in the steering wheel plane and the electromyography （EMG） signals of the primary muscles were measured. These primary muscles are the muscles in shoulder and upper ann which mainly produced the steering torque, and their functions in steering maneuver were identified previously. Next, based on the multiple regressions of the steering force and EMG signals, both the effective steering force and the total force capacity of driver in steering maneuver were calculated. Finally, the steering efficiency of driver was estimated by means of the estimated effective force and the total force capacity, which represented the information of driver physiological output of the primary muscles. This research develops a novel estimating method for driver steering efficiency of driver physiological output, including the estimation of both steering force and the force capacity of primary muscles with EMG signals, and will benefit to evaluate the steering comfort with an objective perspective.展开更多
During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals （RVS） is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available meth- ods including extreme value envel...During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals （RVS） is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available meth- ods including extreme value envelope method （EVEM）, statistical tolerances method （STM） and improved statistical tolerance method （ISTM） require large samples and typical probability distri- bution. Moreover, the frequency-varying characteristic of RVS is usually not taken into account. Gray bootstrap method （GBM） is proposed to solve the problem of estimating frequency-varying RVS with small samples. Firstly, the estimated indexes are obtained including the estimated inter- val, the estimated uncertainty, the estimated value, the estimated error and estimated reliability. In addition, GBM is applied to estimating the single flight testing of certain aircraft. At last, in order to evaluate the estimated performance, GBM is compared with bootstrap method （BM） and gray method （GM） in testing analysis. The result shows that GBM has superiority for estimating dynamic signals with small samples and estimated reliability is proved to be 100% at the given confidence level.展开更多
基金Supported by the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute(KHIDI),funded by the Ministry of Health&Welfare,Republic of Korea(No.HR20C0026)the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF)(No.RS-2023-00247504)the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Coordinating Center,funded by the Ministry of Health&Welfare,Republic of Korea(No.HC19C0276).
文摘AIM:To build a functional generalized estimating equation(GEE)model to detect glaucomatous visual field progression and compare the performance of the proposed method with that of commonly employed algorithms.METHODS:Totally 716 eyes of 716 patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG)with at least 5 reliable 24-2 test results and 2y of follow-up were selected.The functional GEE model was used to detect perimetric progression in the training dataset(501 eyes).In the testing dataset(215 eyes),progression was evaluated the functional GEE model,mean deviation(MD)and visual field index(VFI)rates of change,Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study(AGIS)and Collaborative Initial Glaucoma Treatment Study(CIGTS)scores,and pointwise linear regression(PLR).RESULTS:The proposed method showed the highest proportion of eyes detected as progression(54.4%),followed by the VFI rate(34.4%),PLR(23.3%),and MD rate(21.4%).The CIGTS and AGIS scores had a lower proportion of eyes detected as progression(7.9%and 5.1%,respectively).The time to detection of progression was significantly shorter for the proposed method than that of other algorithms(adjusted P≤0.019).The VFI rate displayed moderate pairwise agreement with the proposed method(k=0.47).CONCLUSION:The functional GEE model shows the highest proportion of eyes detected as perimetric progression and the shortest time to detect perimetric progression in patients with POAG.
基金supported financially by the Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KZCX2-YW-Q03-5)the National Science and Technology Support Plan Project (2009BAK56B05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40802072)
文摘The Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008 induced a huge number of landslides. The distribution and volume of the landslides are very important for assessing risks and understanding the landslide - debris flow - barrier lake - bursts flood disaster chain. The number and the area of landslides in a wide region can be easily obtained by remote sensing technique, while the volume is relatively difficult to obtain because it requires some detailed geometric information of slope failure surface and sub-surface. Different empirical models for estimating landslide volume were discussed based on the data of 107 landslides in the earthquake-stricken area. The volume data of these landslides were collected by field survey. Their areas were obtained by interpreting remote sensing images while their apparent friction coefficients and height were extracted from the images unifying DEM (digital elevation model). By analyzing the relationships between the volume and the area, apparent friction coefficients, and the height, two models were established, one for the adaptation of a magnitude scale landslide events in a wide range of region, another for the adaptation in a small scope. The correlation coefficients (R2) are 0.7977 and 0.8913, respectively. The results estimated by the two models agree well with the measurement data.
基金Supported by NSFC(Nos.12371051,12141101,11871126)。
文摘In this paper,we study and characterize the volume estimates of geodesic balls on Finsler gradient Ricci solitons.We get the upper bounds on the volumes of geodesic balls of all three kinds of Finsler gradient Ricci solitons under certain condition about the Laplacian of thedistance function.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61803081)。
文摘This research considers the tracking problem of a moving target in distributed sensor networks with a limited sensing range(LSR)affected by non-Gaussian noise.In such sensor networks,observation loss due to LSR is a prevalent issue that has received insufficient attention.We introduce a time-varying random variable to describe whether the sensor observes a moving target at each moment.When a single sensor node is unable to receive information from other nodes,it cannot update its state estimation of the moving target once the target moves beyond this node’s observation range.We propose an information flow topology within distributed sensor networks to facilitate the reception of prior state estimation data transmitted by neighboring nodes.Based on this information,a quadratic distributed estimator is designed for each sensor,and an output injection term is introduced to handle unstable systems.Finally,a numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.
文摘Background: Biological maturation refers to the progressive process through which individuals transition toward an adult state during growth and development. To address the challenges posed by differences in biological maturity and the limitations of existing testing methods, particularly in adolescent sports contexts, there is a pressing need for a non-invasive method that is convenient, accurate, and broadly applicable to monitor the biological maturity of adolescent athletes comprehensively. In response to this need, a maturity assessment method based on the smartphone application Maturo has been developed. This study evaluates the accuracy and validity of the Maturo software, an automated tool for estimating biological age and related maturation metrics.Methods: A sample of 103 actively training teenage athletes aged 9-17 years. The sample included 76 males(age = 11.74 ± 1.55 years, mean ±SD) and 27 females(age = 13.95 ± 1.40 years), all without medical conditions that might impact growth or development.Results: Compared to traditional expert evaluations, the intraclass correlation coefficients(ICCs) and Pearson correlation coefficients demonstrated reliable positive correlations and significant agreement between the Maturo software and expert methods across multiple metrics, such as biological age(ICC = 0.965, R = 0.97), corrected biological age(ICC = 0.973, R = 0.99), predicted adult height(ICC = 0.991, R = 0.99), and percentage of adult height achieved(ICC = 0.955, R = 0.97). The Bland-Altman plots provided additional evidence of the validity of the Maturo software estimations, showing low systematic error in most measures. The linear regression analysis produced excellent adjusted R2values: 0.95for biological age and 0.99 for anticipated adult height. The Maturo approach demonstrated a high level of dependability in classifying teenagers into groups based on their maturity status and timing. The κ coefficients of 0.93 for maturity status and 0.82 for maturity timing indicate a nearly perfect agreement with the expert technique.Conclusion: While the Maturo software's non-invasive nature, cost-effectiveness, and ease of use could make it a potential tool for regular monitoring of growth and maturation in young athletes, its promising results in assessing maturation should be interpreted with caution due to limitations such as sample size and demographic constraints. Further longitude research with larger and more diverse populations is needed to validate these preliminary findings and strengthen the evidence for its broader applicability.
基金funded by the State of Texas Advanced Resource Recovery(STARR)programthe GeoH2 Industrial Associate program at the Bureau of Economic Geology,Jackson School of Geosciences at The University of Texas at Austin。
文摘Geological storage in salt caverns plays a critical role in managing energy resources,yet regional assessments often fall short in accounting for specific salt dome morphological variations that can significantly influence cavern engineering and storage capacity.To address this gap,we developed a refined approach to modeling salt domes,incorporating primary axis tilt,ellipticity,and conic taper.These geometric modifications are applied to a cylindrical baseline salt dome model to assess the effects on total salt volume,workable salt volume,and cavern storage potential.Case studies of four salt domes from the East Texas Salt Basin—Mount Sylvan,Boggy Creek,Steen,and Hainesville—validate the observed trends from the models.Our findings reveal that positive cone taper and primary axis tilt configurations enhance storage potential,leading to significant increases in potential cavern volume,while ellipticity and negative cone taper result in reduced storage capacities.The study underscores the importance of refining volumetric assessments by accounting for detailed morphologic variations,providing a more accurate framework for site-specific geological storage evaluations.Additionally,we discuss challenges related to intra-salt heterogeneities,including intra-salt deformation and mineralogical impurities,highlighting the need for improved site characterization to optimize the safety and efficiency of subsurface storage systems.This work contributes to the development of scalable and reliable geological storage infrastructure,essential for meeting future energy demands.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,grant number U2039207).
文摘Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(Grant numbers 2022YFB4301201-11,2022YFB4301203-05)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant number 52202464).
文摘Axle box bearings serve as crucial components within the transmission system of high-speed trains.Their failure can directly impact the operational safety of these trains.Accurately determining the dynamic load experienced by bearings during the operation of high-speed trains can provide valuable boundary inputs for the study of bearing fatigue life and service performance,thereby holding significant engineering implications.In this study,we propose a high-speed train axle box bearing load estimation method(FMCC-DKF).This method is founded on the Kalman filtering technique of the Maximum Correntropy Criterion(MCC)and employs dummy measurement technology to enhance the stability of estimated loads.We develop a kernel size update algorithm to address the challenges associated with obtaining the key parameter,kernel size of MCC.Comparative analysis of the vertical and lateral loads of the axle box bearing obtained using FMCC-DKF,DKF,and AMCC-DKF,under both measurement noise-free and non-Gaussian noise conditions,is conducted to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed estimation method.The results indicate that the proposed FMCC-DKF method exhibits high estimation accuracy under both measurement noise-free and non-Gaussian noise interference,and maintains its high estimation accuracy despite changes in train speed.The proposed load estimation method demonstrates reliable performance within the low-frequency domain below 70 Hz.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China under grant number 2023YFC2809103the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under grant numbers 2042022kf1204, 2042022kf1069, 2042023gf0012, 2042022dx0001+1 种基金the Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under grant number 2022CFB081the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics, Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology under grant number SKLGED2023-2-6
文摘Elevation change monitoring of the Antarctic ice sheet has been a key issue in global change research.Satellite altimetry has been proven to be effective in detecting ice sheet variations. With the development of ICESat-2, many elevation observations can be used to derive elevation changes. However, the large amount of multitemporal data may include anomalous data points, increasing the uncertainty of the results. In this work, we improved the traditional repeat track method by introducing the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Ⅲ(IGGⅢ) method to obtain high-accuracy estimates of elevation change. The improved method was applied to analyze elevation changes along the transect from Zhongshan Station to Dome A in East Antarctica via ICESat-2 satellite altimetry data. The results show that the improved and traditional methods yield consistent numerical and spatial elevation change distributions. The elevation change calculated via the traditional method is 0.033 ± 0.131 m/yr, whereas the elevation change estimated via the IGGⅢ robust estimation method is 0.033 ± 0.109 m/yr from March 2019 to December 2021.In terms of spatial distribution, elevation changes in inland areas remain close to equilibrium, whereas regions with steeper ice sheet margins exhibit positive accumulation trends in elevation changes. The improved method reduces the standard error of the adjustment function from 0.975 to 0.691 m/yr. The improvement is particularly remarkable in the area between 72°S and 77°S. The results demonstrate that the IGGⅢ method effectively reduces errors caused by the inclusion of anomalous data and maintains the high data utilization rate of repeat-orbit methods.
文摘BACKGROUND Acute pancreatitis(AP),a severe pancreatic inflammatory condition,with a mor-tality rate reaching up to 40%.Recently,AP shows a steadily elevating prevalence,which causes the greater number of hospital admissions,imposing the substantial economic burden.Acute kidney injury(AKI)complicates take up approximately 15%of AP cases,with an associated mortality rate of 74.7%-81%.AIM To evaluate the efficacy of estimated plasma volume status(ePVS)in forecasting AKI in patients with AP.METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,AP cases were recruited from the First College of Clinical Medical Science of China Three Gorges University between January 2019 and October 2023.Electronic medical records were adopted for data extrac-tion,including demographic data and clinical characteristics.The association between ePVS and AKI was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models,with potential confounders being adjusted.Nonlinear relationship was examined with smooth curve fitting,and infection points were calculated.Further analyses were performed on stratified subgroups and interaction tests were conducted.RESULTS Among the 1508 AP patients,251(16.6%)developed AKI.ePVS was calculated using Duarte(D-ePVS)and Kaplan-Hakim(KH-ePVS)formulas.After adjusting for covariates,the AKI risk exhibited 46%[odds ratio(OR)=1.46,95%confidence interval(CI):0.96-2.24]and 11%(OR=1.11,95%CI:0.72-1.72)increases in the low tertile(T1)of D-ePVS and KH-ePVS,respectively,and 101%(OR=2.01,95%CI:1.31-3.05)and 51%(OR=1.51,95%CI:1.00-2.29)increases in the high tertile(T3)relative to the reference tertile(T2).Nonlinear curve fitting revealed a U-shaped association of D-ePVS with AKI and a J-shaped association for KH-ePVS,with inflection points at 4.3 dL/g and-2.8%,res-pectively.Significant interactions were not observed in age,gender,hypertension,diabetes mellitus,sequential organ failure assessment score,or AP severity(all P for interaction>0.05).CONCLUSION Our results indicated that ePVS demonstrated the nonlinear association with AKI incidence in AP patients.A U-shaped curve was observed with an inflection point at 4.3 dL/g for the Duarte formula,and a J-shaped curve at-2.8%for the Kaplan-Hakim formula.
基金supported by Geological Disaster Patterns and Mitigation Strategies Under River-Reservoir Hydrodynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir Fluctuation Zone(5000002024CC20004)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3007205)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42271013)the West Light Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘The distribution of the sediment material storage quantity along the debris flow channels(SMSQ_DFC)can provide a foundation for runoffgenerated debris flow prediction or susceptibility assessment.Current models for estimating SMSQ_DFC do not consider the capacity of the channel cross-section to accommodate sediment materials.This accommodation condition serves as a limiting factor in determining whether the expected surplus of sediment materials can ultimately be stored.To address this issue,a mass-conservative index was used to represent the balance of deposit materials at any cross-section,considering the influx from upstream,outflux to downstream,and accommodation capacity.Based on this index,a new model for estimating SMSQ_DFC was developed and subsequently evaluated.The evaluation results show that the model meets the accuracy requirements with average error rates of 14.06%for self-validation and 14.81%for generalization ability validation.To assess its practical applications,the model was applied to the Yeniu Gully in Wenchuan County,Sichuan Province,an area with detailed field survey data.The results show that the model exhibits a commendable performance.Compared to traditional theoretical and semi-theoretical statistical models,our model is easier to use(input parameters can be obtained using Geographic Information Systems(GIS)).The modeling parameters chosen in this study have more theoretical significance than those used in existing purely statistical models,offering more effective technical support for estimating SMSQ_DFC.
文摘Aging is an inevitable process that is usually measured by chronological age,with people aged 65 and over being defined as"older individuals".There is disagreement in the current scientific literature regarding the best methods to estimate glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)in older adults.Several studies suggest the use of an age-adjusted definition to improve accuracy and avoid overdiagnosis.In contrast,some researchers argue that such changes could complicate the classification of chronic kidney disease(CKD).Several formulas,including the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease,CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration,and Cockcroft-Gault equations,are used to estimate eGFR.However,each of these formulas has significant limitations when applied to older adults,primarily due to sarcopenia and malnutrition,which greatly affect both muscle mass and creatinine levels.Alternative formulas,such as the Berlin Initiative Study and the Full Age Spectrum equations,provide more accurate estimates of values for older adults by accounting for age-related physiological changes.In frail older adults,the use of cystatin C leads to better eGFR calculations to assess renal function.Accurate eGFR measurements improve the health of older patients by enabling better medication dosing.A thorough approach that includes multiple calibrated diagnostic methods and a detailed geriatric assessment is necessary for the effective management of kidney disease and other age-related conditions in older adults.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41205126)the Discipline Construction and Macroscopic Agricultural Research Project of Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences(13A1424)+2 种基金the Fund for Youth Innovation of Anhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences(14B1460)the Innovative Research Team for Agricultural Disaster Risk Analysis in Anhui ProvinceAnhui Academy of Agricultural Sciences(14C1409)~~
文摘The establishment of crop yield estimating model based on microwave and optical satellite images can conduct the mutual verification of the accuracy of the reported crop yield and the precision of the estimating model. With Shou County and Huaiyuan County of Anhui Province as the experimental fields of winter wheat producing areas, the linear winter wheat yield estimating models were established by adopting backscattering coefficient and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index（NDVI） based on images from the synthetic aperture radar（SAR）—RDARSAT-2 and HJ satellite photographed in mid-April and early May, 2014, and then comparisons were conducted on the accuracy of the yield estimating models. The accuracies of the yield estimating models established using co-polarized（HH） and cross-polarized（HV） modes of SAR in Jiangou Town, Shou County were 68.37% and 74.01%, respectively, while the accuracies in Longkang Town, Huaiyuan County were 63.10%and 69.10%, respectively. Accuracies of yield estimating models established by HJ satellite data were 69.52% and 66.43% in Shou County and Huaiyuan County, respectively. Accuracies of winter yield estimating model based on HJ satellite data and that based on SAR were closed, and the yield difference of winter wheat in the lodging region was analyzed in detail. The model results laid the foundation and accumulated experience for the verification, parameters correction and promotion of the winter wheat yield estimating model.
基金The National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2012ZX07301-001)the Shenzhen Environmental Research Project,China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2013M530642)
文摘An innovative approach based on water environmental capacity for non-point source NPS pollution removal rate estimation was discussed by using both univariate and multivariate data analysis.Taking Shenzhen city as the study case a 67% to 74% NPS pollutant load removal rate can lead to meeting the chemical oxygen demand COD pollution control target for most watersheds.In contrast it is hardly to achieve the ammonia nitrogen NH4-N total phosphorus TP and biological oxygen demand BOD5 pollution control target by simply removing NPS pollutants. This highlights that the pollution control strategies should be taken according to different pollutant species and sources in different watersheds rather than one-size-fits-all .
文摘A new adaptive detail preserving filter for image processing is presented.By comparing the difference of the values evaluated in the different directions or regions,this filter can decide which region (homogeneous region or detail region) the filtering pixels belong to and then apply different filtering schemes.This filter has better performance of noise filtering and detail preserving than the multistage median filter (MMF).It can be applied especially to the images simultaneously corrupted by Gaussian noise and impulsive noise,and is simple in computation and implementation.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Nos.2018YFC1004300 and 2018YFC1004302)the Science&Technology Program of Guizhou Province(Nos.QKHHBZ[2020]3002,QKHPTRC-GCC[2022]039-1 and QKHPTRCCXTD[2022]014)the Scientific Research Program of Guizhou Provincial Department of Education(No.QJJ[2023]019).
文摘Despite the widespread presence and frequent detection of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs)in various aspects of life,there is limited research on their exposure levels in pregnant women and cumulative exposure from the living environment.This study included 1311 women in late pregnancy from the Zunyi birth cohort and measured the urinary concentrations of 10 hydroxylated PAH metabolites(OH-PAHs).Risk assessment was conducted based on the estimated daily intake to calculate the hazard quotient and hazard index(HI).A linear regression model was used to analyze the relationship between creatinine-adjusted OH-PAHs concentrations and living environment and lifestyle factors,while principal component analysis was applied to trace the sources of PAHs exposure.1-OHPYR was detected in all participants’urine,with naphthalene metabolites having the highest concentrations among creatinine-adjusted PAHs.OH-PAHs concentrations were associated with housing type,room number,cooking frequency,household size,exercise frequency,fuel type,distance from main road,and drinking water source.Pregnant women using traditional fuels and living in bungalows had higher health risks than those using clean energy and living in buildings.Those living within 100 m of a main road had higher HI than those farther away.Coal combustion was identified as the primary source of PAHs exposure.The study emphasizes the importance of reducing PAHs exposure,especially for pregnant women living in polluted environments.It recommends public health interventions such as improving indoor ventilation and providing clean energy to reduce related health risks.
基金Supported by the State Key Laboratory of Acoustics and Marine Information Chinese Academy of Sciences(SKL A202507).
文摘Accurate time delay estimation of target echo signals is a critical component of underwater target localization.In active sonar systems,echo signal processing is vulnerable to the effects of reverberation and noise in the maritime environment.This paper proposes a novel method for estimating target time delay using multi-bright spot echoes,assuming the target’s size and depth are known.Aiming to effectively enhance the extraction of geometric features from the target echoes and mitigate the impact of reverberation and noise,the proposed approach employs the fractional order Fourier transform-frequency sliced wavelet transform to extract multi-bright spot echoes.Using the highlighting model theory and the target size information,an observation matrix is constructed to represent multi-angle incident signals and obtain the theoretical scattered echo signals from different angles.Aiming to accurately estimate the target’s time delay,waveform similarity coefficients and mean square error values between the theoretical return signals and received signals are computed across various incident angles and time delays.Simulation results show that,compared to the conventional matched filter,the proposed algorithm reduces the relative error by 65.9%-91.5%at a signal-to noise ratio of-25 dB,and by 66.7%-88.9%at a signal-to-reverberation ratio of−10 dB.This algorithm provides a new approach for the precise localization of submerged targets in shallow water environments.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0720203)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805603).
文摘Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51005133)National Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China(863 Program,Grant No.2011AA11A244)Special Financial Grant of National Science Foundation for Post-doctoral Scientists of China(Grant No.201104098)
文摘The existing research of steering efficiency mainly focuses on the mechanism efficiency of steering system, aiming at designing and optimizing the mechanism of steering system. In the development of assist steering system especially the evaluation of its comfort, the steering efficiency of driver physiological output usually are not considered, because this physiological output is difficult to measure or to estimate, and the objective evaluation of steering comfort therefore cannot be conducted with movement efficiency perspective. In order to take a further step to the objective evaluation of steering comfort, an estimating method for the steering efficiency of the driver was developed based on the research of the relationship between the steering force and muscle activity. First, the steering forces in the steering wheel plane and the electromyography （EMG） signals of the primary muscles were measured. These primary muscles are the muscles in shoulder and upper ann which mainly produced the steering torque, and their functions in steering maneuver were identified previously. Next, based on the multiple regressions of the steering force and EMG signals, both the effective steering force and the total force capacity of driver in steering maneuver were calculated. Finally, the steering efficiency of driver was estimated by means of the estimated effective force and the total force capacity, which represented the information of driver physiological output of the primary muscles. This research develops a novel estimating method for driver steering efficiency of driver physiological output, including the estimation of both steering force and the force capacity of primary muscles with EMG signals, and will benefit to evaluate the steering comfort with an objective perspective.
基金supported by Aviation Science Foundation of China (No. 20100251006)the Technological Foundation Project (No. J132012C001)
文摘During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals （RVS） is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available meth- ods including extreme value envelope method （EVEM）, statistical tolerances method （STM） and improved statistical tolerance method （ISTM） require large samples and typical probability distri- bution. Moreover, the frequency-varying characteristic of RVS is usually not taken into account. Gray bootstrap method （GBM） is proposed to solve the problem of estimating frequency-varying RVS with small samples. Firstly, the estimated indexes are obtained including the estimated inter- val, the estimated uncertainty, the estimated value, the estimated error and estimated reliability. In addition, GBM is applied to estimating the single flight testing of certain aircraft. At last, in order to evaluate the estimated performance, GBM is compared with bootstrap method （BM） and gray method （GM） in testing analysis. The result shows that GBM has superiority for estimating dynamic signals with small samples and estimated reliability is proved to be 100% at the given confidence level.
