Combining TT* argument and bilinear interpolation,this paper obtains the Strichartz and smoothing estimates of dispersive semigroup e^(-itP(D)) in weighted L^(2) spaces.Among other things,we recover the results in[1]....Combining TT* argument and bilinear interpolation,this paper obtains the Strichartz and smoothing estimates of dispersive semigroup e^(-itP(D)) in weighted L^(2) spaces.Among other things,we recover the results in[1].Moreover,the application of these results to the well-posedness of some equations are shown in the last section.展开更多
We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartmen...We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.展开更多
Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency d...Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.展开更多
Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall station...Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.展开更多
In this paper,we first establish several sharp inequalities of homogeneous expansion for biholomorphic quasi-convex mappings of type B and order a on the unit ball E in a complex Banach space X by applying the method ...In this paper,we first establish several sharp inequalities of homogeneous expansion for biholomorphic quasi-convex mappings of type B and order a on the unit ball E in a complex Banach space X by applying the method and technique of complex analysis.Then,as the application of these sharp inequalities,we derive the sharp estimate of third homogeneous expansions for the above mappings defined on the unit polydisk U^n in C^n.展开更多
In this paper,we study and characterize the volume estimates of geodesic balls on Finsler gradient Ricci solitons.We get the upper bounds on the volumes of geodesic balls of all three kinds of Finsler gradient Ricci s...In this paper,we study and characterize the volume estimates of geodesic balls on Finsler gradient Ricci solitons.We get the upper bounds on the volumes of geodesic balls of all three kinds of Finsler gradient Ricci solitons under certain condition about the Laplacian of thedistance function.展开更多
In this paper, we derive the a priori estimates for a class of more general (k, l)-Hessian quotient type equations involving u and Du on the right hand function. As an application we prove the Liouville theorem depend...In this paper, we derive the a priori estimates for a class of more general (k, l)-Hessian quotient type equations involving u and Du on the right hand function. As an application we prove the Liouville theorem depending on Pogorelov type estimates. On the other hand, we obtain the existence and uniqueness of the k-admissible solution for these general equations with the Neumann boundary condition, based on some growth conditions for the right hand function.展开更多
Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen(N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input data...Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen(N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input datasets and estimation methods. Here, we presented a re-evaluation of Chinese cropland nitrate leaching, and identified and quantified the sources of uncertainty by integrating three cropland area datasets, three N input datasets, and three estimation methods. The results revealed that nitrate leaching from Chinese cropland averaged 6.7±0.6 Tg N yr^(-1)in 2010, ranging from 2.9 to 15.8 Tg N yr^(-1)across 27 different estimates. The primary contributor to the uncertainty was the estimation method, accounting for 45.1%, followed by the interaction of N input dataset and estimation method at 24.4%. The results of this study emphasize the need for adopting a robust estimation method and improving the compatibility between the estimation method and N input dataset to effectively reduce uncertainty. This analysis provides valuable insights for accurately estimating cropland nitrate leaching and contributes to ongoing efforts that address water pollution concerns.展开更多
We consider the space and time decays of certain problems within the second gradient thermal law.Notably,for this thermal theory,the exponential time decay is precluded.First,the time estimates of polynomial type are ...We consider the space and time decays of certain problems within the second gradient thermal law.Notably,for this thermal theory,the exponential time decay is precluded.First,the time estimates of polynomial type are obtained for both the thermal equation and the one-dimensional thermoelastic system,where the impossibility of localization with respect to time is also established.Then,the space estimates are deduced for the multidimensional thermoelastic problem,which allow to show the exponential decay of the energy.展开更多
This paper is devoted to the Polynomial Preserving Recovery (PPR) based a posteriori error analysis for the second-order elliptic non-symmetric eigenvalue problem. An asymptotically exact a posteriori error estimator ...This paper is devoted to the Polynomial Preserving Recovery (PPR) based a posteriori error analysis for the second-order elliptic non-symmetric eigenvalue problem. An asymptotically exact a posteriori error estimator is proposed for solving the convection-dominated non-symmetric eigenvalue problem with non-smooth eigenfunctions or multiple eigenvalues. Numerical examples confirm our theoretical analysis.展开更多
In this article,we are concerned with the C^(2)estimates for the k-convex solutions of a class of degenerate k-Hessian equations on closed Hermitian manifolds,whose function in the right-hand side is relevant to the u...In this article,we are concerned with the C^(2)estimates for the k-convex solutions of a class of degenerate k-Hessian equations on closed Hermitian manifolds,whose function in the right-hand side is relevant to the unknown function and its gradient.We will get C^(0)estimate by promoting others′results,and get the“HMW estimate”of this equation such that the conditions of using blow-up analysis are satisfied,and the gradient estimate and second-order estimate will be obtained.Such an estimate will be helpful to study the existence for the solution of the equation.展开更多
This work deals with the relationship between the Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators in case of dependent observations. In case of Markov chains, we show that the Bayesian estimator of the transition proba...This work deals with the relationship between the Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators in case of dependent observations. In case of Markov chains, we show that the Bayesian estimator of the transition probabilities is a linear function of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE).展开更多
The paper is concerned with a class of elliptic equation with critical exponent and Dipole potential.More precisely,we make use of the refined Sobolev inequality with Morrey norm to obtain the existence and decay prop...The paper is concerned with a class of elliptic equation with critical exponent and Dipole potential.More precisely,we make use of the refined Sobolev inequality with Morrey norm to obtain the existence and decay properties of nonnegative radial ground state solutions.展开更多
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating a...Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.展开更多
In this paper,we give improved error estimates for linearized and nonlinear CrankNicolson type finite difference schemes of Ginzburg-Landau equation in two dimensions.For linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme,we use mathem...In this paper,we give improved error estimates for linearized and nonlinear CrankNicolson type finite difference schemes of Ginzburg-Landau equation in two dimensions.For linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme,we use mathematical induction to get unconditional error estimates in discrete L^(2)and H^(1)norm.However,it is not applicable for the nonlinear scheme.Thus,based on a‘cut-off’function and energy analysis method,we get unconditional L^(2)and H^(1)error estimates for the nonlinear scheme,as well as boundedness of numerical solutions.In addition,if the assumption for exact solutions is improved compared to before,unconditional and optimal pointwise error estimates can be obtained by energy analysis method and several Sobolev inequalities.Finally,some numerical examples are given to verify our theoretical analysis.展开更多
Identifying underground utilities and predicting their depth are fundamental when it comes to civil engineering excavations, for example, to install or repair water, sewer, gas, electric systems and others. The accide...Identifying underground utilities and predicting their depth are fundamental when it comes to civil engineering excavations, for example, to install or repair water, sewer, gas, electric systems and others. The accidental rupture of these systems can lead to unplanned repair costs, delays in completing the service, and risk injury or death of workers. One way to detect underground utilities is using the GPR-Ground Penetrating Radar geophysical method. To estimate depth, the travel time (two-way travel time) information provided by a radargram is used in conjunction with ground wave velocity, which depends on the dielectric constant of materials, where it is usually assumed to be constant for the area under investigation. This procedure provides satisfactory results in most cases. However, wrong depth estimates can result in damage to public utilities, rupturing pipes, cutting lines and so on. These cases occur mainly in areas that have a marked variation of water content and/or soil lithology, thus greater care is required to determine the depth of the targets. The present work demonstrates how the interval velocity of Dix (1955) can be applied in radargram to estimate the depth of underground utilities compared to the conventional technique of constant velocity applied to the same data set. To accomplish this, synthetic and real GPR data were used to verify the applicability of the interval velocity technique and to determine the accuracy of the depth estimates obtained. The studies were carried out at the IAG/USP test site, a controlled environment, where metallic drums are buried in known positions and depths allowing the comparison of real to estimated depths. Numerical studies were also carried out aiming to simulate the real environment with variation of dielectric constant in depth and to validate the results with real data. The results showed that the depths of the targets were estimated more accurately by means of the interval velocity technique in contrast to the constant velocity technique, minimizing the risks of accidents during excavation.展开更多
HIV estimation has become a standard tool for understanding the epidemic. Although the majority of India’s population lives in rural areas, to date, an exploration of the urban and rural HIV epidemic has not been und...HIV estimation has become a standard tool for understanding the epidemic. Although the majority of India’s population lives in rural areas, to date, an exploration of the urban and rural HIV epidemic has not been undertaken. The objective of this study is to develop HIV estimation based on urban and rural adult populations in selected states of India to understand the difference in HIV related indices geographically. Ten states were selected based on HIV prevalence levels-Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Manipur, and Nagaland, Mizoram, Punjab, Odisha and Jharkhand. Spectrum, version 4.53 beta 19, was used. Data files of Indian national estimation, 2010-11 which included population, HIV Sentinel Surveillance, Integrated Bio Behavioral Assessment and program coverage data, were used and alterations made wherever necessary. The urban and rural sub epidemic structures and their subpopulations were separately configured in the Estimation projection package and curve fitting done. Outputs for each state were separately analyzed. Findings show that HIV prevalence is lower in urban than rural areas in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra;in Karnataka there is no difference in HIV prevalence in the urban and rural populations;and in the remaining seven states urban HIV prevalence is higher as compared to rural HIV prevalence. In the states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Odisha and Punjab, the number of people living with HIV, new HIV infections and deaths among people living with HIV is higher in the rural than in the urban population. An early and lower peak in HIV prevalence and incidence in the urban population was seen in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Naga-land, while in Maharashtra the rural peak was earlier and higher. Mizoram shows an earlier and lower peak in the rural population while Manipur shows an earlier and higher urban peak. In Odisha, the epidemic peaked earlier and was lower in the rural than the urban population. HIV prevalence in the urban population in Punjab was still peaking while HIV incidence was earlier and lower in the rural population. In Jharkhand, both urban and rural HIV prevalence and incidence are still increasing. Our findings indicate lower levels of HIV prevalence and incidence in the urban population as compared to the rural populations in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. In the remaining eight states, urban prevalence and incidence are higher than their rural counterparts. Future estimations of the HIV epidemic in the country need to adopt a similar approach to inform the design of appropriate state-level strategies for HIV prevention in urban and rural areas.展开更多
By use of the approach of complex random signal processing, the asymptotic statistical properties of the least square estimates of 2-D exponential signals are studied. In doing so it is found that the representation i...By use of the approach of complex random signal processing, the asymptotic statistical properties of the least square estimates of 2-D exponential signals are studied. In doing so it is found that the representation is considerably more intuitive, and is analytically more tractable.展开更多
Background:Previously published meta-epidemiological studies focused on Western medicine have identified some trial characteristics that impact the treatment effect of randomized controlled trials(RCTs).Nevertheless,i...Background:Previously published meta-epidemiological studies focused on Western medicine have identified some trial characteristics that impact the treatment effect of randomized controlled trials(RCTs).Nevertheless,it remains unclear if similar associations exist in RCTs on Chinese herbal medicine(CHM).Further,Chinese medicine-related characteristics have not been explored yet.Objective:To investigate trial characteristics related to treatment effect estimates on CHM RCTs.Search strategy:This meta-epidemiological study searched 5 databases for systematic reviews on CHM treatment published between January 2011 and July 2021.Inclusion criteria:An eligible systematic review should only include RCTs of CHM and conduct at least one meta-analysis.Data extraction and analysis:Two reviewers independently conducted data extraction on general characteristics of systematic reviews,meta-analyses and included RCTs.They also assessed the risk of bias of RCTs using the Cochrane risk of bias tool.A two-step approach was used for data analyses.The ratio of odds ratios(ROR) and difference in standardized mean differences (dSMD) with 95%confidence interval (CI) were applied to present the difference in effect estimates for binary and continuous outcomes,respectively.Results:Ninety-one systematic reviews,comprising 1338 RCTs were identified.For binary outcomes,RCTs incorporated with syndrome differentiation (ROR:1.23;95%CI:[1.07,1.39]),adopting Chinese medicine formula (ROR:1.19;95%CI:[1.03,1.34]),with low risk of bias on incomplete outcome data (ROR:1.29;95%CI:[1.06,1.52]) and selective outcome reporting (ROR:1.12;95%CI:[1.01,1.24]),as well as a trial size≥100 (ROR:1.23;95%CI:[1.04,1.42]) preferred to show larger effect estimates.As for continuous outcomes,RCTs with Chinese medicine diagnostic criteria (dSMD:0.23;95%CI:[0.06,0.41]),judged as high/unclear risk of bias on allocation concealment (dSMD:-0.70;95%CI:[-0.99,-0.42]),with low risk of bias on incomplete outcome data (dSMD:0.30;95%CI:[0.18,0.43]),conducted at a single center (dSMD:-0.33;95%CI:[-0.61,-0.05]),not using intention-to-treat analysis (dSMD:-0.75;95%CI:[-1.43,-0.07]),and without funding support (dSMD:-0.22;95%CI:[-0.41,-0.02]) tended to show larger effect estimates.Conclusion:This study provides empirical evidence for the development of a specific critical appraisal tool for risk of bias assessments on CHM RCTs.展开更多
This study evaluated the genetic and agronomic parameter estimates of maize under different nitrogen rates. The trial was established at the Njala Agricultural Research Centre experimental site during 2021 and 2022 in...This study evaluated the genetic and agronomic parameter estimates of maize under different nitrogen rates. The trial was established at the Njala Agricultural Research Centre experimental site during 2021 and 2022 in a split block design with three maize varieties (IWCD2, 2009EVDT, and DMR-ESR-Yellow) and seven nitrogen (0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) rates. Findings showed that cob diameter and anthesis silking time (ASI) had intermediate heritability, ASI had high genetic advance, ASI and grain yield had high genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV), while traits with high phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) were plant height, ASI, grain yield, number of kernel per cob, number of kernel rows, ear length, and ear height. The PCV values were higher than GCV, indicating the influence of the environment in the studied traits. Nitrogen rates and variety significantly (p < 0.05) influenced grain yield production. Mean grain yields and economic parameter estimates increased with increasing nitrogen rates, with the 30 and 180 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> plots exhibiting the lowest and highest grain yields of 1238 kg∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> and 2098 kg∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>, respectively. Variety and nitrogen effects on partial factor productivity (PFP<sub>N</sub>), agronomic efficiency (AEN), net returns (NR), value cost ratio (VCR) and marginal return (MR) indicated that these parameters were significantly affected (p < 0.05) by these factors. The highest PFP<sub>N</sub> (41.3 kg grain kg<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>∙N) and AEN (29.4 kg grain kg<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>∙N) were obtained in the 30 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> plots, while the highest VCR (2.8) and MR (SLL 1.8 SLL<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> spent on N) were obtained in the 180 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>. The significant influence of variety and nitrogen on traits suggests that increasing yields and maximizing profits require use of appropriate nitrogen fertilization and improved farming practices that could be exploited for increased productivity of maize.展开更多
基金supported by the NSFC(12071437)the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFA1005700).
文摘Combining TT* argument and bilinear interpolation,this paper obtains the Strichartz and smoothing estimates of dispersive semigroup e^(-itP(D)) in weighted L^(2) spaces.Among other things,we recover the results in[1].Moreover,the application of these results to the well-posedness of some equations are shown in the last section.
基金The work has been supported by a grant received from the Ministry of Education,Government of India under the Scheme for the Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration(SPARC)(ID:SPARC/2019/1396).
文摘We have proposed a new mathematical method,the SEIHCRD model,which has an excellent potential to predict the incidence of COVID-19 diseases.Our proposed SEIHCRD model is an extension of the SEIR model.Three-compartments have added death,hospitalized,and critical,which improves the basic understanding of disease spread and results.We have studiedCOVID-19 cases of six countries,where the impact of this disease in the highest are Brazil,India,Italy,Spain,the United Kingdom,and the United States.After estimating model parameters based on available clinical data,the modelwill propagate and forecast dynamic evolution.Themodel calculates the Basic reproduction number over time using logistic regression and the Case fatality rate based on the selected countries’age-category scenario.Themodel calculates two types of Case fatality rate one is CFR daily,and the other is total CFR.The proposed model estimates the approximate time when the disease is at its peak and the approximate time when death cases rarely occur and calculate how much hospital beds and ICU beds will be needed in the peak days of infection.The SEIHCRD model outperforms the classic ARXmodel and the ARIMA model.RMSE,MAPE,andRsquaredmatrices are used to evaluate results and are graphically represented using Taylor and Target diagrams.The result shows RMSE has improved by 56%–74%,and MAPE has a 53%–89%improvement in prediction accuracy.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC,grant number U2039207).
文摘Earthquakes can cause significant damage and loss of life,necessitating immediate assessment of the resulting fatalities.Rapid assessment and timely revision of fatality estimates are crucial for effective emergency decisionmaking.This study using the February 6,2023,M_(S)8.0 and M_(S)7.9 Kahramanmaras,Türkiye earthquakes as an example to estimate the ultimate number of fatalities.An early Quick Rough Estimate(QRE)based on the number of deaths reported by the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency of Türkiye(AFAD)is conducted,and it dynamically adjusts these estimates as new data becomes available.The range of estimates of the final number of deaths can be calculated as 31384–56475 based on the"the QRE of the second day multiplied by 2–3" rule,which incorporates the reported final deaths 50500.The Quasi-Linear and Adaptive Estimation(QLAE)method adaptively adjusts the final fatality estimate within two days and predicts subsequent reported deaths.The correct order of magnitude of the final death toll can be estimated as early as 13 hr after the M_(S)8.0 earthquake.In addition,additional earthquakes such as May 12,2008,M_(S)8.1 Wenchuan earthquake(China),September 8,2023,M_(S)7.2 Al Haouz earthquake(Morocco),November 3,2023,M_(S)5.8 Mid-Western Nepal earthquake,December 18,2023,M_(S)6.1 Jishishan earthquake(China),January 1,2024,M_(S)7.2 Noto Peninsula earthquake(Japan)and August 8,2023,Maui,Hawaii,fires are added again to verified the correctness of the model.The fatalities from the Maui fires are found to be approximately equivalent to those resulting from an M_(S)7.4 earthquake.These methods complement existing frameworks such as Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation(QLARM)and Prompt Assessment of Global.
基金National Key R&D Program of China(No.2016YFA0601601)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41601026,41661099)Science and Technology Planning Project of Yunnan Province,China(No.2017FB073)
文摘Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.
基金supported by Guangdong Natural Science Foundation(2018A030313508)Science and Technology Program of Guangzhou,China(201804010171)
文摘In this paper,we first establish several sharp inequalities of homogeneous expansion for biholomorphic quasi-convex mappings of type B and order a on the unit ball E in a complex Banach space X by applying the method and technique of complex analysis.Then,as the application of these sharp inequalities,we derive the sharp estimate of third homogeneous expansions for the above mappings defined on the unit polydisk U^n in C^n.
基金Supported by NSFC(Nos.12371051,12141101,11871126)。
文摘In this paper,we study and characterize the volume estimates of geodesic balls on Finsler gradient Ricci solitons.We get the upper bounds on the volumes of geodesic balls of all three kinds of Finsler gradient Ricci solitons under certain condition about the Laplacian of thedistance function.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.11971157).
文摘In this paper, we derive the a priori estimates for a class of more general (k, l)-Hessian quotient type equations involving u and Du on the right hand function. As an application we prove the Liouville theorem depending on Pogorelov type estimates. On the other hand, we obtain the existence and uniqueness of the k-admissible solution for these general equations with the Neumann boundary condition, based on some growth conditions for the right hand function.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2023YFD1902703)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Key Program) (U23A20158)。
文摘Cropland nitrate leaching is the major nitrogen(N) loss pathway, and it contributes significantly to water pollution. However, cropland nitrate leaching estimates show great uncertainty due to variations in input datasets and estimation methods. Here, we presented a re-evaluation of Chinese cropland nitrate leaching, and identified and quantified the sources of uncertainty by integrating three cropland area datasets, three N input datasets, and three estimation methods. The results revealed that nitrate leaching from Chinese cropland averaged 6.7±0.6 Tg N yr^(-1)in 2010, ranging from 2.9 to 15.8 Tg N yr^(-1)across 27 different estimates. The primary contributor to the uncertainty was the estimation method, accounting for 45.1%, followed by the interaction of N input dataset and estimation method at 24.4%. The results of this study emphasize the need for adopting a robust estimation method and improving the compatibility between the estimation method and N input dataset to effectively reduce uncertainty. This analysis provides valuable insights for accurately estimating cropland nitrate leaching and contributes to ongoing efforts that address water pollution concerns.
基金part of the project“Qualitative and numerical analyses of some thermomechanics problems(ACUANUTER)”(Ref.PID2024-156827NB-I00)。
文摘We consider the space and time decays of certain problems within the second gradient thermal law.Notably,for this thermal theory,the exponential time decay is precluded.First,the time estimates of polynomial type are obtained for both the thermal equation and the one-dimensional thermoelastic system,where the impossibility of localization with respect to time is also established.Then,the space estimates are deduced for the multidimensional thermoelastic problem,which allow to show the exponential decay of the energy.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.1236108412001130)。
文摘This paper is devoted to the Polynomial Preserving Recovery (PPR) based a posteriori error analysis for the second-order elliptic non-symmetric eigenvalue problem. An asymptotically exact a posteriori error estimator is proposed for solving the convection-dominated non-symmetric eigenvalue problem with non-smooth eigenfunctions or multiple eigenvalues. Numerical examples confirm our theoretical analysis.
文摘In this article,we are concerned with the C^(2)estimates for the k-convex solutions of a class of degenerate k-Hessian equations on closed Hermitian manifolds,whose function in the right-hand side is relevant to the unknown function and its gradient.We will get C^(0)estimate by promoting others′results,and get the“HMW estimate”of this equation such that the conditions of using blow-up analysis are satisfied,and the gradient estimate and second-order estimate will be obtained.Such an estimate will be helpful to study the existence for the solution of the equation.
文摘This work deals with the relationship between the Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators in case of dependent observations. In case of Markov chains, we show that the Bayesian estimator of the transition probabilities is a linear function of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE).
基金supported by the Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Educational Committee(2023AH040155)Zhisu Liu's research was supported by the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011679+2 种基金2024A1515012704)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan)(CUG2106211CUGST2).
文摘The paper is concerned with a class of elliptic equation with critical exponent and Dipole potential.More precisely,we make use of the refined Sobolev inequality with Morrey norm to obtain the existence and decay properties of nonnegative radial ground state solutions.
基金supported by The Technology Innovation Team(Tianshan Innovation Team),Innovative Team for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Arid Regions(2022TSYCTD0001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171269)the Xinjiang Academician Workstation Cooperative Research Project(2020.B-001).
文摘Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11571181)the Research Start-Up Foundation of Nantong University(Grant No.135423602051).
文摘In this paper,we give improved error estimates for linearized and nonlinear CrankNicolson type finite difference schemes of Ginzburg-Landau equation in two dimensions.For linearized Crank-Nicolson scheme,we use mathematical induction to get unconditional error estimates in discrete L^(2)and H^(1)norm.However,it is not applicable for the nonlinear scheme.Thus,based on a‘cut-off’function and energy analysis method,we get unconditional L^(2)and H^(1)error estimates for the nonlinear scheme,as well as boundedness of numerical solutions.In addition,if the assumption for exact solutions is improved compared to before,unconditional and optimal pointwise error estimates can be obtained by energy analysis method and several Sobolev inequalities.Finally,some numerical examples are given to verify our theoretical analysis.
文摘Identifying underground utilities and predicting their depth are fundamental when it comes to civil engineering excavations, for example, to install or repair water, sewer, gas, electric systems and others. The accidental rupture of these systems can lead to unplanned repair costs, delays in completing the service, and risk injury or death of workers. One way to detect underground utilities is using the GPR-Ground Penetrating Radar geophysical method. To estimate depth, the travel time (two-way travel time) information provided by a radargram is used in conjunction with ground wave velocity, which depends on the dielectric constant of materials, where it is usually assumed to be constant for the area under investigation. This procedure provides satisfactory results in most cases. However, wrong depth estimates can result in damage to public utilities, rupturing pipes, cutting lines and so on. These cases occur mainly in areas that have a marked variation of water content and/or soil lithology, thus greater care is required to determine the depth of the targets. The present work demonstrates how the interval velocity of Dix (1955) can be applied in radargram to estimate the depth of underground utilities compared to the conventional technique of constant velocity applied to the same data set. To accomplish this, synthetic and real GPR data were used to verify the applicability of the interval velocity technique and to determine the accuracy of the depth estimates obtained. The studies were carried out at the IAG/USP test site, a controlled environment, where metallic drums are buried in known positions and depths allowing the comparison of real to estimated depths. Numerical studies were also carried out aiming to simulate the real environment with variation of dielectric constant in depth and to validate the results with real data. The results showed that the depths of the targets were estimated more accurately by means of the interval velocity technique in contrast to the constant velocity technique, minimizing the risks of accidents during excavation.
文摘HIV estimation has become a standard tool for understanding the epidemic. Although the majority of India’s population lives in rural areas, to date, an exploration of the urban and rural HIV epidemic has not been undertaken. The objective of this study is to develop HIV estimation based on urban and rural adult populations in selected states of India to understand the difference in HIV related indices geographically. Ten states were selected based on HIV prevalence levels-Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Manipur, and Nagaland, Mizoram, Punjab, Odisha and Jharkhand. Spectrum, version 4.53 beta 19, was used. Data files of Indian national estimation, 2010-11 which included population, HIV Sentinel Surveillance, Integrated Bio Behavioral Assessment and program coverage data, were used and alterations made wherever necessary. The urban and rural sub epidemic structures and their subpopulations were separately configured in the Estimation projection package and curve fitting done. Outputs for each state were separately analyzed. Findings show that HIV prevalence is lower in urban than rural areas in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra;in Karnataka there is no difference in HIV prevalence in the urban and rural populations;and in the remaining seven states urban HIV prevalence is higher as compared to rural HIV prevalence. In the states of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Odisha and Punjab, the number of people living with HIV, new HIV infections and deaths among people living with HIV is higher in the rural than in the urban population. An early and lower peak in HIV prevalence and incidence in the urban population was seen in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Naga-land, while in Maharashtra the rural peak was earlier and higher. Mizoram shows an earlier and lower peak in the rural population while Manipur shows an earlier and higher urban peak. In Odisha, the epidemic peaked earlier and was lower in the rural than the urban population. HIV prevalence in the urban population in Punjab was still peaking while HIV incidence was earlier and lower in the rural population. In Jharkhand, both urban and rural HIV prevalence and incidence are still increasing. Our findings indicate lower levels of HIV prevalence and incidence in the urban population as compared to the rural populations in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. In the remaining eight states, urban prevalence and incidence are higher than their rural counterparts. Future estimations of the HIV epidemic in the country need to adopt a similar approach to inform the design of appropriate state-level strategies for HIV prevention in urban and rural areas.
文摘By use of the approach of complex random signal processing, the asymptotic statistical properties of the least square estimates of 2-D exponential signals are studied. In doing so it is found that the representation is considerably more intuitive, and is analytically more tractable.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.81973709)Chinese Medicine Development Fund (21B2/018A)State Key Laboratory of Dampness Syndrome of Chinese Medicine Special Fund (SZ2021ZZ05,SZ2021ZZ0502)。
文摘Background:Previously published meta-epidemiological studies focused on Western medicine have identified some trial characteristics that impact the treatment effect of randomized controlled trials(RCTs).Nevertheless,it remains unclear if similar associations exist in RCTs on Chinese herbal medicine(CHM).Further,Chinese medicine-related characteristics have not been explored yet.Objective:To investigate trial characteristics related to treatment effect estimates on CHM RCTs.Search strategy:This meta-epidemiological study searched 5 databases for systematic reviews on CHM treatment published between January 2011 and July 2021.Inclusion criteria:An eligible systematic review should only include RCTs of CHM and conduct at least one meta-analysis.Data extraction and analysis:Two reviewers independently conducted data extraction on general characteristics of systematic reviews,meta-analyses and included RCTs.They also assessed the risk of bias of RCTs using the Cochrane risk of bias tool.A two-step approach was used for data analyses.The ratio of odds ratios(ROR) and difference in standardized mean differences (dSMD) with 95%confidence interval (CI) were applied to present the difference in effect estimates for binary and continuous outcomes,respectively.Results:Ninety-one systematic reviews,comprising 1338 RCTs were identified.For binary outcomes,RCTs incorporated with syndrome differentiation (ROR:1.23;95%CI:[1.07,1.39]),adopting Chinese medicine formula (ROR:1.19;95%CI:[1.03,1.34]),with low risk of bias on incomplete outcome data (ROR:1.29;95%CI:[1.06,1.52]) and selective outcome reporting (ROR:1.12;95%CI:[1.01,1.24]),as well as a trial size≥100 (ROR:1.23;95%CI:[1.04,1.42]) preferred to show larger effect estimates.As for continuous outcomes,RCTs with Chinese medicine diagnostic criteria (dSMD:0.23;95%CI:[0.06,0.41]),judged as high/unclear risk of bias on allocation concealment (dSMD:-0.70;95%CI:[-0.99,-0.42]),with low risk of bias on incomplete outcome data (dSMD:0.30;95%CI:[0.18,0.43]),conducted at a single center (dSMD:-0.33;95%CI:[-0.61,-0.05]),not using intention-to-treat analysis (dSMD:-0.75;95%CI:[-1.43,-0.07]),and without funding support (dSMD:-0.22;95%CI:[-0.41,-0.02]) tended to show larger effect estimates.Conclusion:This study provides empirical evidence for the development of a specific critical appraisal tool for risk of bias assessments on CHM RCTs.
文摘This study evaluated the genetic and agronomic parameter estimates of maize under different nitrogen rates. The trial was established at the Njala Agricultural Research Centre experimental site during 2021 and 2022 in a split block design with three maize varieties (IWCD2, 2009EVDT, and DMR-ESR-Yellow) and seven nitrogen (0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>) rates. Findings showed that cob diameter and anthesis silking time (ASI) had intermediate heritability, ASI had high genetic advance, ASI and grain yield had high genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV), while traits with high phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) were plant height, ASI, grain yield, number of kernel per cob, number of kernel rows, ear length, and ear height. The PCV values were higher than GCV, indicating the influence of the environment in the studied traits. Nitrogen rates and variety significantly (p < 0.05) influenced grain yield production. Mean grain yields and economic parameter estimates increased with increasing nitrogen rates, with the 30 and 180 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> plots exhibiting the lowest and highest grain yields of 1238 kg∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> and 2098 kg∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>, respectively. Variety and nitrogen effects on partial factor productivity (PFP<sub>N</sub>), agronomic efficiency (AEN), net returns (NR), value cost ratio (VCR) and marginal return (MR) indicated that these parameters were significantly affected (p < 0.05) by these factors. The highest PFP<sub>N</sub> (41.3 kg grain kg<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>∙N) and AEN (29.4 kg grain kg<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>∙N) were obtained in the 30 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> plots, while the highest VCR (2.8) and MR (SLL 1.8 SLL<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup> spent on N) were obtained in the 180 kg∙N∙ha<sup>−</sup><sup>1</sup>. The significant influence of variety and nitrogen on traits suggests that increasing yields and maximizing profits require use of appropriate nitrogen fertilization and improved farming practices that could be exploited for increased productivity of maize.
