Land surface models are often highly nonlinear with model physics that contain parameterized discontinuities. These model attributes severely limit the application of advanced variational data assimilation methods int...Land surface models are often highly nonlinear with model physics that contain parameterized discontinuities. These model attributes severely limit the application of advanced variational data assimilation methods into land data assimilation. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely employed for land data assimilation because of its simple conceptual formulation and relative ease of implementation. An updated ensemble-based three-dimensional variational assimilation (En3-DVar) method is proposed for land data assimilation.This new method incorporates Monte Carlo sampling strategies into the 3-D variational data assimilation framework. The proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique is used to efficiently approximate a forecast ensemble produced by the Monte Carlo method in a 3-D space that uses a set of base vectors that span the ensemble. The data assimilation process is thus significantly simplified. Our assimilation experiments indicate that this new En3-DVar method considerably outperforms the EnKF method by increasing assimilation precision. Furthermore, computational costs for the new En3-DVar method are much lower than for the EnKF method.展开更多
An ensemble-based assimilation system that used the MASINGAR ink-2 （Model of Aerosol Species IN the Global AtmospheRe Mark 2） dust forecasting model and satellite-derived aerosol optical thickness （AOT） data. proc...An ensemble-based assimilation system that used the MASINGAR ink-2 （Model of Aerosol Species IN the Global AtmospheRe Mark 2） dust forecasting model and satellite-derived aerosol optical thickness （AOT） data. processed in the JAXA （Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency） Satellite Monitoring for Environmental Studies （JASMES） system with MODIS （Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） observations. was used to quantify the impact of assimilation on forecasts of a severe Asian dust storm during May 10-13. 2011. The modeled bidirectional reflectance function and observed vegetation index employed in JASMES enable AOT retrievals in areas of high surface reflectance, making JASMES effective for dust forecasting and early warning by enabling assimilations in dust storm source regions. Forecasts both with and without assimilation were validated using PM^0 observations from China, Korea, and Japan in the TEMM WG1 dataset. Only the forecast with assimilation successfully captured the contrast between the core and tail of the dust storm by increasing the AOT around the core by 70-150% and decreasing it around the tail by 20-30% in the 18-h forecast. The forecast with assimilation improved the agreement with observed PMlo concentrations, but the effect was limited at downwind sites in Korea and Japan because of the lack of observational constraints for a mis-forecasted dust storm due to cloud.展开更多
High spatiotemporal resolution infrared radiances from FY-4A/AGRI(Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager)can provide crucial information for rapidly developing severe convective weather.This study established a symme...High spatiotemporal resolution infrared radiances from FY-4A/AGRI(Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager)can provide crucial information for rapidly developing severe convective weather.This study established a symmetric observation error model that differentiates between land and sea for FY-4A/AGRI all-sky assimilation,developed an all-sky assimilation scheme for FY-4A/AGRI based on hydrometeor control variables,and investigated the impacts of all-sky FY-4A/AGRI water vapor channels at different altitudes and rapid-update assimilation at different frequencies on the assimilation and forecasting of a severe convective weather event.Results show that simultaneous assimilation of two water vapor channels can enhance precipitation forecasts compared to single-channel assimilation,which is mainly attributable to a more accurate analysis of water vapor and hydrometeor information.Experiments with different assimilation frequencies demonstrate that the hourly assimilation frequency,compared to other frequencies,incorporates the high-frequency information from AGRI while reducing the impact of spurious oscillations caused by excessively high-frequency assimilation.This hourly assimilation frequency reduces the incoordination among thermal,dynamical,and water vapor conditions caused by excessively fast or slow assimilation frequencies,thus improving the forecast accuracy compared to other frequencies.展开更多
A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study em...A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.展开更多
Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants,an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemic...Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants,an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemical transport model in simulating PM_(2.5).Based on the NASM joint chemical data assimilation system,the authors quantified the impacts of different meteorological fields on the pollutant simulations as well as revealed the role of meteorological conditions in the accumulation,maintenance,and dissipation of heavy haze pollution.During the two heavy pollution processes from 10 to 24 November 2018,the meteorological fields were obtained using NCEP FNL and ERA5 reanalysis data,each used to drive the WRF model,to analyze the differences in the simulated PM_(2.5) concentration.The results show that the meteorological field has a strong influence on the concentration levels and spatial distribution of the pollution simulations.The ERA5 group had relatively small simulation errors,and more accurate PM_(2.5) simulation results could be obtained.The RMSE was 11.86𝜇g m^(-3)lower than that of the FNL group before assimilation,and 5.77𝜇g m^(-3)lower after joint assimilation.The authors used the PM_(2.5) simulation results obtained by ERA5 data to discuss the role of the wind field and circulation situation on the pollution process,to analyze the correlation between wind speed,temperature,relative humidity,and boundary layer height and pollutant concentrations,and to further clarify the key formation mechanism of this pollution process.展开更多
The assimilation of dual-polarization(dual-pol)radar data plays a crucial role in enhancing the simulation of hydrometeors and improving the short-term precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction(NWP)model...The assimilation of dual-polarization(dual-pol)radar data plays a crucial role in enhancing the simulation of hydrometeors and improving the short-term precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.However,existing dual-pol radar data assimilation(DA)methods exhibit limitations in terms of computational efficiency and data utilization.In this study,a new dual-pol radar DA approach is developed that utilizes a UNet-based model to retrieve mixing ratio information for four hydrometeor species from dual-pol radar data.The validation results for the UNet-based model indicate that the distributions of the retrieved hydrometeor mixing ratios provided by the model align well with the labeled data,yielding a reasonable range of root mean square errors(RMSEs).On this basis,the hydrometeor analysis increments retrieved by the UNet-based model are incorporated into the model integration process through the incremental analysis update(IAU)scheme,establishing a complete dual-pol radar DA framework for the CMA-MESO model.To evaluate the efficacy of this DA scheme,comparative simulation experiments were conducted for Typhoon Lekima(2019).Verification results indicate that using the hydrometeor DA scheme generally improves the threat scores(TSs)for 3-hour accumulated precipitation during medium-and heavy-rainfall events.Additionally,the 24-hour accumulated rainfall TSs for the medium-,heavy-,and extreme-precipitation categories in the DA experiment are all superior to those in the control experiment.The DA method also yields superior predictions of the spatial distribution of extremerainfall events.These results demonstrate that the proposed dual-pol radar DA approach effectively enhances the precipitation forecasting capabilities of numerical weather models.展开更多
In order to further enhance the numerical application of weather radar radial velocity,this paper proposes a quality control scheme for weather radar radial velocity from the perspective of data assimilation.The propo...In order to further enhance the numerical application of weather radar radial velocity,this paper proposes a quality control scheme for weather radar radial velocity from the perspective of data assimilation.The proposed scheme is based on the WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation)system and utilizes the biweight algorithm to perform quality control on weather radar radial velocity data.A series of quality control tests conducted over the course of one month demonstrate that the scheme can be seamlessly integrated into the data assimilation process.The scheme is characterized by its simplicity,fast implementation,and ease of maintenance.By determining an appropri-ate threshold for quality control,the percentage of outliers identified by the scheme remains highly stable over time.Moreover,the mean errors and standard deviations of the O-B(observation-minus-background)values are significantly reduced,improving the overall data quality.The main information and spatial distribution features of the data are pre-served effectively.After quality control,the distribution of the O-B Probability Density Function is adjusted in a manner that brings it closer to a Gaussian distribution.This adjustment is beneficial for the subsequent data assimilation process,contributing to more accurate numerical weather predictions.Thus,the proposed quality control scheme provides a valuable tool for improving weather radar data quality and enhancing numerical forecasting performance.展开更多
Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this st...Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.展开更多
A record-breaking prolonged and extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China during 18–23 July 2021.Global and regional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models consistently underpredicted both the 24-h accumula...A record-breaking prolonged and extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China during 18–23 July 2021.Global and regional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models consistently underpredicted both the 24-h accumulated rainfall amount and the 1-h extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou city.This study examines the potential impacts of data assimilation(DA)of atmospheric vertical profiles based on the train-based mobile observation(MO)platforms on precipitation forecasts.The research involved assimilating virtual train-based air temperature(Ta),relative humidity(RH),U and V components of wind profile data based on the ERA5 reanalysis datasets into the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model using three-dimensional variational(3DVar)method.Analysis confirms the reliability of Ta,RH,and wind speed(WS)profiles from ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The assimilation of virtual train-based moisture profiles enhanced the RH analysis field.Furthermore,the forecasts more accurately represented the coverage and intensity of the 6-hour and 24-hour accumulated precipitation,as well as areas with maximum rainfall durations exceeding 20 hours.The threat score(TS)and bias metrics for 6-h,12-h and 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts showed marked improvement for heavy to torrential rain in Henan province,particularly in the Central and Northern regions(hereinafter referred to region CNH).The TS for 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts at 50 and 100 mm rainfall levels increased by 0.17 and 0.18 in Henan province,and by 0.13 and 0.18 in region CNH.During the rainstorm period,water vapor content increased substantially,with enhanced moisture transport from south of Henan province to region CNH driven by southwesterly winds,accompanied by significantly strengthened updrafts.These improvement in water vapor and upward motion ultimately enhanced the forecasts of this extreme rainstorm event.展开更多
Efficient and accurate prediction of ocean surface latent heat fluxes is essential for understanding and modeling climate dynamics.Conventional estimation methods have low resolution and lack accuracy.The transformer ...Efficient and accurate prediction of ocean surface latent heat fluxes is essential for understanding and modeling climate dynamics.Conventional estimation methods have low resolution and lack accuracy.The transformer model,with its self-attention mechanism,effectively captures long-range dependencies,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.Due to the non-linearity and uncertainty of physical processes,the transformer model encounters the problem of error accumulation,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.To solve this problem,we combine the Data Assimilation(DA)technique with the transformer model and continuously modify the model state to make it closer to the actual observations.In this paper,we propose a deep learning model called TransNetDA,which integrates transformer,convolutional neural network and DA methods.By combining data-driven and DA methods for spatiotemporal prediction,TransNetDA effectively extracts multi-scale spatial features and significantly improves prediction accuracy.The experimental results indicate that the TransNetDA method surpasses traditional techniques in terms of root mean square error and R2 metrics,showcasing its superior performance in predicting latent heat fluxes at the ocean surface.展开更多
By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemb...By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemble size without increasing the number of prediction runs and, hence, can reduce the computational cost of an ensemble-based filter. In this study, this approach is tested for the first time with real radar data from a tornadic thunderstorm. In particular, four assimilation experiments were performed to test the time-expanded sampling method against the conventional ensemble sampling method used by ensemble- based filters. In these experiments, the ensemble square-root filter （EnSRF） was used with 45 ensemble members generated by the time-expanded sampling and conventional sampling from 15 and 45 prediction runs, respectively, and quality-controlled radar data were compressed into super-observations with properly reduced spatial resolutions to improve the EnSRF performances. The results show that the time-expanded sampling approach not only can reduce the computational cost but also can improve the accuracy of the analysis, especially when the ensemble size is severely limited due to computational constraints for real-radar data assimilation. These potential merits are consistent with those previously demonstrated by assimilation experiments with simulated data.展开更多
Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in ...Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in order to estimate biomass according to relationship between biomass and backscattering coefficients from SAR data. Based on cost function, parameters of growth model were optimized as per conjugate gradient method, minimizing the differences between estimated biomass and inversion values from SAR data. The results indicated that the simulated biomass using the revised growth model with SAR data was consistent with the measured one in time distribution and even higher in accuracy than that without SAR data. Hence, the key parameters of crop growth model could be revised by real-time growth information from SAR data and accuracy of the simulated biomass could be improved accordingly.展开更多
It is not reasonable that one can only use the adjoint of model in data assimilation. The simulated numerical experiment shows that for the tidal model, the result of the adjoint of equation is almost the same as that...It is not reasonable that one can only use the adjoint of model in data assimilation. The simulated numerical experiment shows that for the tidal model, the result of the adjoint of equation is almost the same as that of the adjoint of model: the averaged absolute difference of the amplitude between observations and simulation is less than 5.0 cm and that of the phase-lag is less than 5.0°. The results are both in good agreement with the observed M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. For comparison, the traditional methods also have been used to simulate M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The initial guess values of the boundary conditions are given first, and then are adjusted to acquire the simulated results that are as close as possible to the observations. As the boundary conditions contain 72 values, which should be adjusted and how to adjust them can only be partially solved by adjusting them many times. The satisfied results are hard to acquire even gigantic efforts are done. Here, the automation of the treatment of the open boundary conditions is realized. The method is unique and superior to the traditional methods. It is emphasized that if the adjoint of equation is used, tedious and complicated mathematical deduction can be avoided. Therefore the adjoint of equation should attract much attention.展开更多
This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assim...This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.展开更多
Assimilation configurations have significant impacts on analysis results and subsequent forecasts. A squall line system that occurred on 23 April 2007 over southern China was used to investigate the impacts of the dat...Assimilation configurations have significant impacts on analysis results and subsequent forecasts. A squall line system that occurred on 23 April 2007 over southern China was used to investigate the impacts of the data assimilation frequency of radar data on analyses and forecasts. A three-dimensional variational system was used to assimilate radial velocity data,and a cloud analysis system was used for reflectivity assimilation with a 2-h assimilation window covering the initial stage of the squall line. Two operators of radar reflectivity for cloud analyses corresponding to single-and double-moment schemes were used. In this study, we examined the sensitivity of assimilation frequency using 10-, 20-, 30-, and 60-min assimilation intervals. The results showed that analysis fields were not consistent with model dynamics and microphysics in general;thus, model states, including dynamic and microphysical variables, required approximately 20 min to reach a new balance after data assimilation in all experiments. Moreover, a 20-min data assimilation interval generally produced better forecasts for both single-and double-moment schemes in terms of equitable threat and bias scores. We conclude that a higher data assimilation frequency can produce a more intense cold pool and rear inflow jets but does not necessarily lead to a better forecast.展开更多
This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and wind...This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.展开更多
A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the ...A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.展开更多
Different choices of control variables in variational assimilation can bring about different influences on the analyzed atmospheric state. Based on the WRF model＇s three-dimensional variational assimilation system, t...Different choices of control variables in variational assimilation can bring about different influences on the analyzed atmospheric state. Based on the WRF model＇s three-dimensional variational assimilation system, this study compares the be- havior of two momentum control variable options-streamfunction velocity potential （ψ-χ） and horizontal wind components （U-V）-in radar wind data assimilation for a squall line case that occurred in Jiangsu Province on 24 August 2014. The wind increment from the single observation test shows that the ψ-χ control variable scheme produces negative increments in the neighborhood around the observation point because streamfunction and velocity potential preserve integrals of velocity. On the contrary, the U-V control variable scheme objectively reflects the information of the observation itself. Furthermore, radial velocity data from 17 Doppler radars in eastern China are assimilated. As compared to the impact of conventional observation, the assimilation of radar radial velocity based on the U-V control variable scheme significantly improves the mesoscale dynamic field in the initial condition. The enhanced low-level jet stream, water vapor convergence and low-level wind shear result in better squall line forecasting. However, the ψ-χ control variable scheme generates a discontinuous wind field and unrealistic convergence/divergence in the analyzed field, which lead to a degraded precipitation forecast.展开更多
An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts....An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model （Burgers＇ equation model） is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.展开更多
In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolut...In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40705035)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (Grant Nos. 2009AA12Z129 and 2007AA12Z144)
文摘Land surface models are often highly nonlinear with model physics that contain parameterized discontinuities. These model attributes severely limit the application of advanced variational data assimilation methods into land data assimilation. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely employed for land data assimilation because of its simple conceptual formulation and relative ease of implementation. An updated ensemble-based three-dimensional variational assimilation (En3-DVar) method is proposed for land data assimilation.This new method incorporates Monte Carlo sampling strategies into the 3-D variational data assimilation framework. The proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique is used to efficiently approximate a forecast ensemble produced by the Monte Carlo method in a 3-D space that uses a set of base vectors that span the ensemble. The data assimilation process is thus significantly simplified. Our assimilation experiments indicate that this new En3-DVar method considerably outperforms the EnKF method by increasing assimilation precision. Furthermore, computational costs for the new En3-DVar method are much lower than for the EnKF method.
文摘An ensemble-based assimilation system that used the MASINGAR ink-2 （Model of Aerosol Species IN the Global AtmospheRe Mark 2） dust forecasting model and satellite-derived aerosol optical thickness （AOT） data. processed in the JAXA （Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency） Satellite Monitoring for Environmental Studies （JASMES） system with MODIS （Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer） observations. was used to quantify the impact of assimilation on forecasts of a severe Asian dust storm during May 10-13. 2011. The modeled bidirectional reflectance function and observed vegetation index employed in JASMES enable AOT retrievals in areas of high surface reflectance, making JASMES effective for dust forecasting and early warning by enabling assimilations in dust storm source regions. Forecasts both with and without assimilation were validated using PM^0 observations from China, Korea, and Japan in the TEMM WG1 dataset. Only the forecast with assimilation successfully captured the contrast between the core and tail of the dust storm by increasing the AOT around the core by 70-150% and decreasing it around the tail by 20-30% in the 18-h forecast. The forecast with assimilation improved the agreement with observed PMlo concentrations, but the effect was limited at downwind sites in Korea and Japan because of the lack of observational constraints for a mis-forecasted dust storm due to cloud.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3080500)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2142208,42475158,and 42105149)the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for supporting this work。
文摘High spatiotemporal resolution infrared radiances from FY-4A/AGRI(Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager)can provide crucial information for rapidly developing severe convective weather.This study established a symmetric observation error model that differentiates between land and sea for FY-4A/AGRI all-sky assimilation,developed an all-sky assimilation scheme for FY-4A/AGRI based on hydrometeor control variables,and investigated the impacts of all-sky FY-4A/AGRI water vapor channels at different altitudes and rapid-update assimilation at different frequencies on the assimilation and forecasting of a severe convective weather event.Results show that simultaneous assimilation of two water vapor channels can enhance precipitation forecasts compared to single-channel assimilation,which is mainly attributable to a more accurate analysis of water vapor and hydrometeor information.Experiments with different assimilation frequencies demonstrate that the hourly assimilation frequency,compared to other frequencies,incorporates the high-frequency information from AGRI while reducing the impact of spurious oscillations caused by excessively high-frequency assimilation.This hourly assimilation frequency reduces the incoordination among thermal,dynamical,and water vapor conditions caused by excessively fast or slow assimilation frequencies,thus improving the forecast accuracy compared to other frequencies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 42030605]the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2020YFA0608004]。
文摘A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 m.This study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine heatwave.The sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep ocean.The latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging scheme.It excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the Blob.These improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean conditions.The results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program of Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China[grant number 2022QZKK0101]the Science and Technology Department of the Tibet Program[grant number XZ202301ZY0035G]。
文摘Since meteorological conditions are the main factor driving the transport and dispersion of air pollutants,an accurate simulation of the meteorological field will directly affect the accuracy of the atmospheric chemical transport model in simulating PM_(2.5).Based on the NASM joint chemical data assimilation system,the authors quantified the impacts of different meteorological fields on the pollutant simulations as well as revealed the role of meteorological conditions in the accumulation,maintenance,and dissipation of heavy haze pollution.During the two heavy pollution processes from 10 to 24 November 2018,the meteorological fields were obtained using NCEP FNL and ERA5 reanalysis data,each used to drive the WRF model,to analyze the differences in the simulated PM_(2.5) concentration.The results show that the meteorological field has a strong influence on the concentration levels and spatial distribution of the pollution simulations.The ERA5 group had relatively small simulation errors,and more accurate PM_(2.5) simulation results could be obtained.The RMSE was 11.86𝜇g m^(-3)lower than that of the FNL group before assimilation,and 5.77𝜇g m^(-3)lower after joint assimilation.The authors used the PM_(2.5) simulation results obtained by ERA5 data to discuss the role of the wind field and circulation situation on the pollution process,to analyze the correlation between wind speed,temperature,relative humidity,and boundary layer height and pollutant concentrations,and to further clarify the key formation mechanism of this pollution process.
基金Major Key Project of PCL(PCL2025A10)Open Research Project of the China Meteorological Administration Hydro-Meteorology Key Laboratory(23SWQXM036)+2 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(42375160)Project of the Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sounding of China Meteorological Administration(2022KLAS06M)Science and Technology Research Project of the Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau(GRMC2024M04)。
文摘The assimilation of dual-polarization(dual-pol)radar data plays a crucial role in enhancing the simulation of hydrometeors and improving the short-term precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction(NWP)models.However,existing dual-pol radar data assimilation(DA)methods exhibit limitations in terms of computational efficiency and data utilization.In this study,a new dual-pol radar DA approach is developed that utilizes a UNet-based model to retrieve mixing ratio information for four hydrometeor species from dual-pol radar data.The validation results for the UNet-based model indicate that the distributions of the retrieved hydrometeor mixing ratios provided by the model align well with the labeled data,yielding a reasonable range of root mean square errors(RMSEs).On this basis,the hydrometeor analysis increments retrieved by the UNet-based model are incorporated into the model integration process through the incremental analysis update(IAU)scheme,establishing a complete dual-pol radar DA framework for the CMA-MESO model.To evaluate the efficacy of this DA scheme,comparative simulation experiments were conducted for Typhoon Lekima(2019).Verification results indicate that using the hydrometeor DA scheme generally improves the threat scores(TSs)for 3-hour accumulated precipitation during medium-and heavy-rainfall events.Additionally,the 24-hour accumulated rainfall TSs for the medium-,heavy-,and extreme-precipitation categories in the DA experiment are all superior to those in the control experiment.The DA method also yields superior predictions of the spatial distribution of extremerainfall events.These results demonstrate that the proposed dual-pol radar DA approach effectively enhances the precipitation forecasting capabilities of numerical weather models.
基金funded by Beijige Fund of Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences(BJG202501)the Joint Research Project for Meteorological Capacity Improvement(22NLTSY009)+2 种基金Key Scientific Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(KZ202203)China Meteorological Administration projects(CMAJBGS202316)the Guiding Research Projects of Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Bureau(ZD202404,ZD202419).
文摘In order to further enhance the numerical application of weather radar radial velocity,this paper proposes a quality control scheme for weather radar radial velocity from the perspective of data assimilation.The proposed scheme is based on the WRFDA(Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation)system and utilizes the biweight algorithm to perform quality control on weather radar radial velocity data.A series of quality control tests conducted over the course of one month demonstrate that the scheme can be seamlessly integrated into the data assimilation process.The scheme is characterized by its simplicity,fast implementation,and ease of maintenance.By determining an appropri-ate threshold for quality control,the percentage of outliers identified by the scheme remains highly stable over time.Moreover,the mean errors and standard deviations of the O-B(observation-minus-background)values are significantly reduced,improving the overall data quality.The main information and spatial distribution features of the data are pre-served effectively.After quality control,the distribution of the O-B Probability Density Function is adjusted in a manner that brings it closer to a Gaussian distribution.This adjustment is beneficial for the subsequent data assimilation process,contributing to more accurate numerical weather predictions.Thus,the proposed quality control scheme provides a valuable tool for improving weather radar data quality and enhancing numerical forecasting performance.
基金jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)[grant number 42130608]the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2024M753169]。
文摘Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and has experienced rapid changes during in the past few decades,the prediction of which is a significant application for climate models.In this study,a Localized Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter is employed in a coupled climate system model(the Flexible Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System Model,version f3-L(FGOALS-f3-L))to assimilate sea-ice concentration(SIC)and sea-ice thickness(SIT)data for melting-season ice predictions.The scheme is applied through the following steps:(1)initialization for generating initial ensembles;(2)analysis for assimilating observed data;(3)adoption for dividing ice states into five thickness categories;(4)forecast for evolving the model;(5)resampling for updating model uncertainties.Several experiments were conducted to examine its results and impacts.Compared with the control experiment,the continuous assimilation experiments(CTNs)indicate assimilations improve model SICs and SITs persistently and generate realistic initials.Assimilating SIC+SIT data better corrects overestimated model SITs spatially than when only assimilating SIC data.The continuous assimilation restart experiments indicate the initials from the CTNs correct the overestimated marginal SICs and overall SITs remarkably well,as well as the cold biases in the oceanic and atmospheric models.The initials with SIC+SIT assimilated show more reasonable spatial improvements.Nevertheless,the SICs in the central Arctic undergo abnormal summer reductions,which is probably because overestimated SITs are reduced in the initials but the strong seasonal cycle(summer melting)biases are unchanged.Therefore,since systematic biases are complicated in a coupled system,for FGOALS-f3-L to make better ice predictions,oceanic and atmospheric assimilations are expected required.
基金R&D major projects from China State Railway Group Co.,Ltd.(K2022G039)Tibet Autonomous Region Science and Technology Program Project(XZ202402ZD0006-06)+1 种基金Open bidding project for selecting the best candidates from China Meteorological Administration(CMAJBGS202303)The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(2019QZKK0105)。
文摘A record-breaking prolonged and extreme rainstorm occurred in Henan province,China during 18–23 July 2021.Global and regional numerical weather prediction(NWP)models consistently underpredicted both the 24-h accumulated rainfall amount and the 1-h extreme precipitation in Zhengzhou city.This study examines the potential impacts of data assimilation(DA)of atmospheric vertical profiles based on the train-based mobile observation(MO)platforms on precipitation forecasts.The research involved assimilating virtual train-based air temperature(Ta),relative humidity(RH),U and V components of wind profile data based on the ERA5 reanalysis datasets into the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model using three-dimensional variational(3DVar)method.Analysis confirms the reliability of Ta,RH,and wind speed(WS)profiles from ERA5 reanalysis datasets.The assimilation of virtual train-based moisture profiles enhanced the RH analysis field.Furthermore,the forecasts more accurately represented the coverage and intensity of the 6-hour and 24-hour accumulated precipitation,as well as areas with maximum rainfall durations exceeding 20 hours.The threat score(TS)and bias metrics for 6-h,12-h and 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts showed marked improvement for heavy to torrential rain in Henan province,particularly in the Central and Northern regions(hereinafter referred to region CNH).The TS for 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts at 50 and 100 mm rainfall levels increased by 0.17 and 0.18 in Henan province,and by 0.13 and 0.18 in region CNH.During the rainstorm period,water vapor content increased substantially,with enhanced moisture transport from south of Henan province to region CNH driven by southwesterly winds,accompanied by significantly strengthened updrafts.These improvement in water vapor and upward motion ultimately enhanced the forecasts of this extreme rainstorm event.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 42176011 and 61931025the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China under contract No.24CX03001A.
文摘Efficient and accurate prediction of ocean surface latent heat fluxes is essential for understanding and modeling climate dynamics.Conventional estimation methods have low resolution and lack accuracy.The transformer model,with its self-attention mechanism,effectively captures long-range dependencies,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.Due to the non-linearity and uncertainty of physical processes,the transformer model encounters the problem of error accumulation,leading to a degradation of accuracy over time.To solve this problem,we combine the Data Assimilation(DA)technique with the transformer model and continuously modify the model state to make it closer to the actual observations.In this paper,we propose a deep learning model called TransNetDA,which integrates transformer,convolutional neural network and DA methods.By combining data-driven and DA methods for spatiotemporal prediction,TransNetDA effectively extracts multi-scale spatial features and significantly improves prediction accuracy.The experimental results indicate that the TransNetDA method surpasses traditional techniques in terms of root mean square error and R2 metrics,showcasing its superior performance in predicting latent heat fluxes at the ocean surface.
基金supported by ONR Grants N000140410312 and N000141010778 to CIMMS,the University of Oklahomaby the radar data assimilation projects No. 2008LASW-A01 and No.GYHY200806003 at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of SciencesProvided to CIMMS by NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research under NOAA-University of Oklahoma Coopera-tive Agreement #NA17RJ1227,U.S. Department of Commerce
文摘By sampling perturbed state vectors from each ensemble prediction run at properly selected time levels in the vicinity of the analysis time, the recently proposed time-expanded sampling approach can enlarge the ensemble size without increasing the number of prediction runs and, hence, can reduce the computational cost of an ensemble-based filter. In this study, this approach is tested for the first time with real radar data from a tornadic thunderstorm. In particular, four assimilation experiments were performed to test the time-expanded sampling method against the conventional ensemble sampling method used by ensemble- based filters. In these experiments, the ensemble square-root filter （EnSRF） was used with 45 ensemble members generated by the time-expanded sampling and conventional sampling from 15 and 45 prediction runs, respectively, and quality-controlled radar data were compressed into super-observations with properly reduced spatial resolutions to improve the EnSRF performances. The results show that the time-expanded sampling approach not only can reduce the computational cost but also can improve the accuracy of the analysis, especially when the ensemble size is severely limited due to computational constraints for real-radar data assimilation. These potential merits are consistent with those previously demonstrated by assimilation experiments with simulated data.
基金Supported by National High-tech R & D Program of China (863 Program)(2007AA12Z174)~~
文摘Biomass from SAR data was assimilated into crop growth model to describe relationship between crop biomass and crop growth time to improve estimation accuracy of biomass. In addition, inverse model was established in order to estimate biomass according to relationship between biomass and backscattering coefficients from SAR data. Based on cost function, parameters of growth model were optimized as per conjugate gradient method, minimizing the differences between estimated biomass and inversion values from SAR data. The results indicated that the simulated biomass using the revised growth model with SAR data was consistent with the measured one in time distribution and even higher in accuracy than that without SAR data. Hence, the key parameters of crop growth model could be revised by real-time growth information from SAR data and accuracy of the simulated biomass could be improved accordingly.
文摘It is not reasonable that one can only use the adjoint of model in data assimilation. The simulated numerical experiment shows that for the tidal model, the result of the adjoint of equation is almost the same as that of the adjoint of model: the averaged absolute difference of the amplitude between observations and simulation is less than 5.0 cm and that of the phase-lag is less than 5.0°. The results are both in good agreement with the observed M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. For comparison, the traditional methods also have been used to simulate M2 tide in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The initial guess values of the boundary conditions are given first, and then are adjusted to acquire the simulated results that are as close as possible to the observations. As the boundary conditions contain 72 values, which should be adjusted and how to adjust them can only be partially solved by adjusting them many times. The satisfied results are hard to acquire even gigantic efforts are done. Here, the automation of the treatment of the open boundary conditions is realized. The method is unique and superior to the traditional methods. It is emphasized that if the adjoint of equation is used, tedious and complicated mathematical deduction can be avoided. Therefore the adjoint of equation should attract much attention.
基金sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant No.ATM0205599)the U.S. Offce of Navy Research under Grant N000140410471Dr. James A. Hansen was partially supported by US Offce of Naval Research (Grant No. N00014-06-1-0500)
文摘This study examines the performance of coupling the deterministic four-dimensional variational assimilation system （4DVAR） with an ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） to produce a superior hybrid approach for data assimilation. The coupled assimilation scheme （E4DVAR） benefits from using the state-dependent uncertainty provided by EnKF while taking advantage of 4DVAR in preventing filter divergence： the 4DVAR analysis produces posterior maximum likelihood solutions through minimization of a cost function about which the ensemble perturbations are transformed, and the resulting ensemble analysis can be propagated forward both for the next assimilation cycle and as a basis for ensemble forecasting. The feasibility and effectiveness of this coupled approach are demonstrated in an idealized model with simulated observations. It is found that the E4DVAR is capable of outperforming both 4DVAR and the EnKF under both perfect- and imperfect-model scenarios. The performance of the coupled scheme is also less sensitive to either the ensemble size or the assimilation window length than those for standard EnKF or 4DVAR implementations.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2017YFC1502104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41775099 and 41605026)Grant No.NJCAR2016ZD02,and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD)
文摘Assimilation configurations have significant impacts on analysis results and subsequent forecasts. A squall line system that occurred on 23 April 2007 over southern China was used to investigate the impacts of the data assimilation frequency of radar data on analyses and forecasts. A three-dimensional variational system was used to assimilate radial velocity data,and a cloud analysis system was used for reflectivity assimilation with a 2-h assimilation window covering the initial stage of the squall line. Two operators of radar reflectivity for cloud analyses corresponding to single-and double-moment schemes were used. In this study, we examined the sensitivity of assimilation frequency using 10-, 20-, 30-, and 60-min assimilation intervals. The results showed that analysis fields were not consistent with model dynamics and microphysics in general;thus, model states, including dynamic and microphysical variables, required approximately 20 min to reach a new balance after data assimilation in all experiments. Moreover, a 20-min data assimilation interval generally produced better forecasts for both single-and double-moment schemes in terms of equitable threat and bias scores. We conclude that a higher data assimilation frequency can produce a more intense cold pool and rear inflow jets but does not necessarily lead to a better forecast.
基金primarily supported by the National Fundamental Research 973 Program of China(Grant No.2013CB430101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41275031,41322032 and 41475015)+1 种基金the Social Commonwealth Research Program(Grant Nos.GYHY201506004 and GYHY201006007)the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in Universities of China
文摘This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a four- dimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System （VDRAS）. Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational （4DVAR） data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments--assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function--are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line-- including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind--are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41490644,41475101 and 41421005)the CAS Strategic Priority Project(the Western Pacific Ocean System+2 种基金Project Nos.XDA11010105,XDA11020306 and XDA11010301)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(Grant No.U1406401)the NSFC Innovative Group Grant(Project No.41421005)
文摘A four-dimensional variational （4D-Var） data assimilation method is implemented in an improved intermediate coupled model （ICM） of the tropical Pacific. A twin experiment is designed to evaluate the impact of the 4D-Var data assimilation algorithm on ENSO analysis and prediction based on the ICM. The model error is assumed to arise only from the parameter uncertainty. The ＂observation＂ of the SST anomaly, which is sampled from a ＂truth＂ model simulation that takes default parameter values and has Gaussian noise added, is directly assimilated into the assimilation model with its parameters set erroneously. Results show that 4D-Var effectively reduces the error of ENSO analysis and therefore improves the prediction skill of ENSO events compared with the non-assimilation case. These results provide a promising way for the ICM to achieve better real-time ENSO prediction.
基金jointly supported by the National Fundamental Research(973)Program of China(Grant Nos.2015CB452801 and 2013CB430100)the Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau Research Fund Project for the Youth(Grant Nos.Q201514 and Q201407)+3 种基金the Shandong Institute of Meteorological Sciences Research Fund Project(Grant No.SDQXKF2015M10)the Jiangsu Provincial Key Technology R&D Program(Grant No.BE2013730)the Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau Key Research Fund Project(Grant No.KZ201502)the National Key Technology R&D Program(Grant No.2014BAG01B01)
文摘Different choices of control variables in variational assimilation can bring about different influences on the analyzed atmospheric state. Based on the WRF model＇s three-dimensional variational assimilation system, this study compares the be- havior of two momentum control variable options-streamfunction velocity potential （ψ-χ） and horizontal wind components （U-V）-in radar wind data assimilation for a squall line case that occurred in Jiangsu Province on 24 August 2014. The wind increment from the single observation test shows that the ψ-χ control variable scheme produces negative increments in the neighborhood around the observation point because streamfunction and velocity potential preserve integrals of velocity. On the contrary, the U-V control variable scheme objectively reflects the information of the observation itself. Furthermore, radial velocity data from 17 Doppler radars in eastern China are assimilated. As compared to the impact of conventional observation, the assimilation of radar radial velocity based on the U-V control variable scheme significantly improves the mesoscale dynamic field in the initial condition. The enhanced low-level jet stream, water vapor convergence and low-level wind shear result in better squall line forecasting. However, the ψ-χ control variable scheme generates a discontinuous wind field and unrealistic convergence/divergence in the analyzed field, which lead to a degraded precipitation forecast.
基金The study has been continued under the support of the Foundation for Research Science and Technology of New Zealand under contract C01X0401
文摘An adaptive estimation of forecast error covariance matrices is proposed for Kalman filtering data assim- ilation. A forecast error covariance matrix is initially estimated using an ensemble of perturbation forecasts. This initially estimated matrix is then adjusted with scale parameters that are adaptively estimated by minimizing -2log-likelihood of observed-minus-forecast residuals. The proposed approach could be applied to Kalman filtering data assimilation with imperfect models when the model error statistics are not known. A simple nonlinear model （Burgers＇ equation model） is used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.
基金The National Program on Global Change and Air-sea Interaction of China under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-05the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers of China under contract No.U1606405+2 种基金the International Cooperation Project on the China-Australia Research Centre for Maritime Engineering of Ministry of Science and Technology,China under contract No.2016YFE0101400the Aoshan Talents Program under contract No.2015ASTPthe Transparency Program of Pacific Ocean-South China Sea-Indian Ocean supported by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology China under contract No.2015ASKJ01
文摘In order to evaluate the assimilation results from a global high resolution ocean model, the buoy observations from tropical atmosphere ocean（TAO） during August 2014 to July 2015 are employed. The horizontal resolution of wave-tide-circulation coupled ocean model developed by The First Institute of Oceanography（FIOCOM model） is 0.1°×0.1°, and ensemble adjustment Kalman filter is used to assimilate the sea surface temperature（SST）, sea level anomaly（SLA） and Argo temperature/salinity profiles. The simulation results with and without data assimilation are examined. First, the overall statistic errors of model results are analyzed. The scatter diagrams of model simulations versus observations and corresponding error probability density distribution show that the errors of all the observed variables, including the temperature, isotherm depth of 20°C（D20）, salinity and two horizontal component of velocity are reduced to some extent with a maximum improvement of 54% after assimilation. Second, time-averaged variables are used to investigate the horizontal and vertical structures of the model results. Owing to the data assimilation, the biases of the time-averaged distribution are reduced more than70% for the temperature and D20 especially in the eastern Pacific. The obvious improvement of D20 which represents the upper mixed layer depth indicates that the structure of the temperature after the data assimilation becomes more close to the reality and the vertical structure of the upper ocean becomes more reasonable. At last,the physical processes of time series are compared with observations. The time evolution processes of all variables after the data assimilation are more consistent with the observations. The temperature bias and RMSE of D20 are reduced by 76% and 56% respectively with the data assimilation. More events during this period are also reproduced after the data assimilation. Under the condition of strong 2014/2016 El Ni？o, the Equatorial Undercurrent（EUC） from the TAO is gradually increased during August to November in 2014, and followed by a decreasing process. Since the improvement of the structure in the upper ocean, these events of the EUC can be clearly found in the assimilation results. In conclusion, the data assimilation in this global high resolution model has successfully reduced the model biases and improved the structures of the upper ocean, and the physical processes in reality can be well produced.
