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MPMS-SGH:Multi-parameter Multi-step Prediction Model for Solar Greenhouse
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作者 JI Ronghua WANG Wenxuan +2 位作者 AN Dong QI Shaotian LIU Jincun 《农业机械学报》 北大核心 2025年第7期265-278,共14页
Accurately predicting environmental parameters in solar greenhouses is crucial for achieving precise environmental control.In solar greenhouses,temperature,humidity,and light intensity are crucial environmental parame... Accurately predicting environmental parameters in solar greenhouses is crucial for achieving precise environmental control.In solar greenhouses,temperature,humidity,and light intensity are crucial environmental parameters.The monitoring platform collected data on the internal environment of the solar greenhouse for one year,including temperature,humidity,and light intensity.Additionally,meteorological data,comprising outdoor temperature,outdoor humidity,and outdoor light intensity,was gathered during the same time frame.The characteristics and interrelationships among these parameters were investigated by a thorough analysis.The analysis revealed that environmental parameters in solar greenhouses displayed characteristics such as temporal variability,non-linearity,and periodicity.These parameters exhibited complex coupling relationships.Notably,these characteristics and coupling relationships exhibited pronounced seasonal variations.The multi-parameter multi-step prediction model for solar greenhouse(MPMS-SGH)was introduced,aiming to accurately predict three key greenhouse environmental parameters,and the model had certain seasonal adaptability.MPMS-SGH was structured with multiple layers,including an input layer,a preprocessing layer,a feature extraction layer,and a prediction layer.The input layer was used to generate the original sequence matrix,which included indoor temperature,indoor humidity,indoor light intensity,as well as outdoor temperature and outdoor light intensity.Then the preprocessing layer normalized,decomposed,and positionally encoded the original sequence matrix.In the feature extraction layer,the time attention mechanism and frequency attention mechanism were used to extract features from the trend component and the seasonal component,respectively.Finally,the prediction layer used a multi-layer perceptron to perform multi-step prediction of indoor environmental parameters(i.e.temperature,humidity,and light intensity).The parameter selection experiment evaluated the predictive performance of MPMS-SGH on input and output sequences of different lengths.The results indicated that with a constant output sequence length,the prediction accuracy of MPMS-SGH was firstly increased and then decreased with the increase of input sequence length.Specifically,when the input sequence length was 100,MPMS-SGH had the highest prediction accuracy,with RMSE of 0.22℃,0.28%,and 250lx for temperature,humidity,and light intensity,respectively.When the length of the input sequence remained constant,as the length of the output sequence increased,the accuracy of the model in predicting the three environmental parameters was continuously decreased.When the length of the output sequence exceeded 45,the prediction accuracy of MPMS-SGH was significantly decreased.In order to achieve the best balance between model size and performance,the input sequence length of MPMS-SGH was set to be 100,while the output sequence length was set to be 35.To assess MPMS-SGH’s performance,comparative experiments with four prediction models were conducted:SVR,STL-SVR,LSTM,and STL-LSTM.The results demonstrated that MPMS-SGH surpassed all other models,achieving RMSE of 0.15℃for temperature,0.38%for humidity,and 260lx for light intensity.Additionally,sequence decomposition can contribute to enhancing MPMS-SGH’s prediction performance.To further evaluate MPMS-SGH’s capabilities,its prediction accuracy was tested across different seasons for greenhouse environmental parameters.MPMS-SGH had the highest accuracy in predicting indoor temperature and the lowest accuracy in predicting humidity.And the accuracy of MPMS-SGH in predicting environmental parameters of the solar greenhouse fluctuated with seasons.MPMS-SGH had the highest accuracy in predicting the temperature inside the greenhouse on sunny days in spring(R^(2)=0.91),the highest accuracy in predicting the humidity inside the greenhouse on sunny days in winter(R^(2)=0.83),and the highest accuracy in predicting the light intensity inside the greenhouse on cloudy days in autumm(R^(2)=0.89).MPMS-SGH had the lowest accuracy in predicting three environmental parameters in a sunny summer greenhouse. 展开更多
关键词 solar greenhouse environmental parameter time series multi-step prediction
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Rockburst prediction based on multi-featured drilling parameters and extreme tree algorithm for full-section excavated tunnel faces
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作者 Wenhao Yi Mingnian Wang +2 位作者 Qinyong Xia Yongyi He Hongqiang Sun 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 2025年第1期258-274,共17页
The suddenness, uncertainty, and randomness of rockbursts directly affect the safety of tunnel construction. The prediction of rockbursts is a fundamental aspect of mitigating or even eliminating rockburst hazards. To... The suddenness, uncertainty, and randomness of rockbursts directly affect the safety of tunnel construction. The prediction of rockbursts is a fundamental aspect of mitigating or even eliminating rockburst hazards. To address the shortcomings of the current rockburst prediction models, which have a limited number of samples and rely on manual test results as the majority of their input features, this paper proposes rockburst prediction models based on multi-featured drilling parameters of rock drilling jumbo. Firstly, four original drilling parameters, namely hammer pressure (Ph), feed pressure (Pf), rotation pressure (Pr), and feed speed (VP), together with the rockburst grades, were collected from 1093 rockburst cases. Then, a feature expansion investigation was performed based on the four original drilling parameters to establish a drilling parameter feature system and a rockburst prediction database containing 42 features. Furthermore, rockburst prediction models based on multi-featured drilling parameters were developed using the extreme tree (ET) algorithm and Bayesian optimization. The models take drilling parameters as input parameters and rockburst grades as output parameters. The effects of Bayesian optimization and the number of drilling parameter features on the model performance were analyzed using the accuracy, precision, recall and F1 value of the prediction set as the model performance evaluation indices. The results show that the Bayesian optimized model with 42 drilling parameter features as inputs performs best, with an accuracy of 91.89%. Finally, the reliability of the models was validated through field tests. 展开更多
关键词 Rockburst prediction Drilling parameters Feature system Extreme tree(ET) Bayesian optimization
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Reservoir prediction using pre-stack inverted elastic parameters 被引量:8
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作者 陈双全 王尚旭 +1 位作者 张永刚 季敏 《Applied Geophysics》 SCIE CSCD 2009年第4期349-358,394,共11页
This is a case study of the application of pre-stack inverted elastic parameters to tight-sand reservoir prediction. With the development of oil and gas exploration, pre-stack data and inversion results are increasing... This is a case study of the application of pre-stack inverted elastic parameters to tight-sand reservoir prediction. With the development of oil and gas exploration, pre-stack data and inversion results are increasingly used for production objectives. The pre-stack seismic property studies include not only amplitude verse offset (AVO) but also the characteristics of other elastic property changes. In this paper, we analyze the elastic property parameters characteristics of gas- and wet-sands using data from four gas-sand core types. We found that some special elastic property parameters or combinations can be used to identify gas sands from water saturated sand. Thus, we can do reservoir interpretation and description using different elastic property data from the pre-stack seismic inversion processing. The pre- stack inversion method is based on the simplified Aki-Richard linear equation. The initial model can be generated from well log data and seismic and geologic interpreted horizons in the study area. The input seismic data is angle gathers generated from the common reflection gathers used in pre-stack time or depth migration. The inversion results are elastic property parameters or their combinations. We use a field data example to examine which elastic property parameters or combinations of parameters can most easily discriminate gas sands from background geology and which are most sensitive to pore-fluid content. Comparing the inversion results to well data, we found that it is useful to predict gas reservoirs using λ, λρ, λ/μ, and K/μ properties, which indicate the gas characteristics in the study reservoir. 展开更多
关键词 elastic parameters pre-stack inversion reservoir prediction AVO analysis angle gather
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Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of H-type hypertension with pulse diagram parameters
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作者 Siman WANG Mengchu ZHANG +4 位作者 Minghui YAO Tianxiao XIE Rui GUO Yiqin WANG Haixia YAN 《Digital Chinese Medicine》 2025年第2期174-182,共9页
Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Pat... Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Patients diagnosed with essential hypertension and admitted to Shanghai Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shang-hai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,and Shanghai Hospital of Integrated Tradition-al Chinese and Western Medicine from July 6th 2020 to June 16th 2021,and from August 11th 2023 to January 22nd 2024,were enrolled in this retrospective research.The baselines and clinical biochemical indicators of patients were collected.The SMART-I TCM pulse instru-ment was applied to gather pulse diagram parameters.Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to analyze the risk factors for HTH.RStudio was employed to construct the nomo-gram model,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and calibration curve(bootstrap self-sampling 200 times),and clinical decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model’s dis-crimination and clinical effectiveness.Results A total of 168 hospitalized patients with essential hypertension were selected and di-vided into non-HTH group(n=29)and HTH group(n=139).Compared with non-HTH group,HTH group had a lower body mass index(BMI),and higher proportions of male pa-tients and drinkers(P<0.05).The ventricular wall thickening(VWT)could not be deter-mined.The proportions of left common carotid intima-media wall thickness(LCCIMWT)and serum creatinine(SCR)were higher in HTH group(P<0.05).The pulse diagram parameter As was significantly higher,and H4/H1 and T1/T were lower in HTH group(P<0.05).Gender,al-cohol consumption,serum creatinine,and the pulse diagram parameter H4/H1 were identi-fied as independent risk factors for HTH(P<0.05).The nomogram’s area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.795[95%confidence interval(CI):(0.7066,0.8828)],with a specificity of 0.724 and sensitivity of 0.799.After 200 times repeated bootstrap self-samplings,the calibra-tion curve showed that the simulated curve fits well with the actual curve(x^(2)=9.5002,P=0.3019).The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram’s applicability was optimal when the threshold for predicting HTH was between 0.38 and 1.00.Conclusion The nomogram model could be valuable for predicting the onset risk of HTH and pulse diagram parameters can facilitate early screening and prevention of HTH. 展开更多
关键词 H-type hypertension Homocysteine NOMOGRAM Pulse diagram parameters prediction model
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Prediction of earth rotation parameters based on improved weighted least squares and autoregressive model 被引量:10
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作者 Sun Zhangzhen Xu Tianhe 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2012年第3期57-64,共8页
In this paper, an improved weighted least squares (WLS), together with autoregressive (AR) model, is proposed to improve prediction accuracy of earth rotation parameters(ERP). Four weighting schemes are develope... In this paper, an improved weighted least squares (WLS), together with autoregressive (AR) model, is proposed to improve prediction accuracy of earth rotation parameters(ERP). Four weighting schemes are developed and the optimal power e for determination of the weight elements is studied. The results show that the improved WLS-AR model can improve the ERP prediction accuracy effectively, and for different prediction intervals of ERP, different weight scheme should be chosen. 展开更多
关键词 earth rotation parameters(ERP) prediction autoregressive(AR) WEIGHTED least-square
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Interval finite difference method for steady-state temperature field prediction with interval parameters 被引量:5
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作者 Chong Wang Zhi-Ping Qiu 《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2014年第2期161-166,共6页
A new numerical technique named interval finite difference method is proposed for the steady-state temperature field prediction with uncertainties in both physical parameters and boundary conditions. Interval variable... A new numerical technique named interval finite difference method is proposed for the steady-state temperature field prediction with uncertainties in both physical parameters and boundary conditions. Interval variables are used to quantitatively describe the uncertain parameters with limited information. Based on different Taylor and Neumann series, two kinds of parameter perturbation methods are presented to approximately yield the ranges of the uncertain temperature field. By comparing the results with traditional Monte Carlo simulation, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method for solving steady-state heat conduction problem with uncertain-but-bounded parameters. 展开更多
关键词 Steady-state heat conduction Interval finite dif-ference Temperature field prediction parameter perturba-tion method Interval uncertainties
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Prediction of Aircraft Engine Health Condition Parameters Based on Ensemble ELM 被引量:1
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作者 Da Lei Shi-Sheng Zhong 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2013年第3期7-11,共5页
In view of aircraft engine health condition parameters prediction,an ensemble ELM based prediction approach is proposed in this paper. In the approach,the AdaBoost. RT algorithm is improved to adjust its threshold ada... In view of aircraft engine health condition parameters prediction,an ensemble ELM based prediction approach is proposed in this paper. In the approach,the AdaBoost. RT algorithm is improved to adjust its threshold adaptively,and is utilized as the basic framework to establish the ensemble learning model using ELM as weak learners. The proposed approach is evaluated through the prediction of the actual engine fuel flow deviation time series,and the results demonstrate that this approach is feasible for the prediction of aircraft engine health condition parameters. The performance of the proposed approach is compared with single ELM, single process neural network ( PNN) ,and a similar ensemble ELM based approach using AdaBoost. RT as basic framework. The results show that,the proposed approach is more accurate than single ELM and single PNN,and no worse than the ensemble prediction approach for contrast,furthermore,the given approach is more convenient for practical application. Therefore,the proposed approach is better suited to the prediction of aircraft engine health parameters. 展开更多
关键词 ensemble learning AdaBoost. RT ELM aircraft engine condition parameter prediction
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Bayesian prediction of potential depressions in the Erlian Basin based on integrated geophysical parameters 被引量:1
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作者 Xu Feng-Jiao Tang Chuan-Zhang +2 位作者 Yan Liang-Jun Chen Qing-Li Feng Guang-Ye 《Applied Geophysics》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第3期338-348,共11页
In this study,we analyzed the geological,gravity,magnetic,and electrical characteristics of depressions in the Erlian Basin.Based on the results of these analyses,we could identify four combined feature parameters sho... In this study,we analyzed the geological,gravity,magnetic,and electrical characteristics of depressions in the Erlian Basin.Based on the results of these analyses,we could identify four combined feature parameters showing strong correlations and sensibilities to the reservoir oil-bearing conditions:the average residual gravity anomaly,the average magnetic anomaly,the average depth of the conductive key layer,and the average elevation of the depressions.The feature parameters of the 65 depressions distributed in the whole basin were statistically analyzed:each of them showed a Gaussian distribution and had the basis of Bayesian theory.Our Bayesian predictions allowed the defi nition of a formula to calculate the posterior probability of oil occurrence in the depressions based on the combined characteristic parameters.The feasibility of this prediction method was verifi ed by considering the results obtained for the 22 drilled depressions.Subsequently,we were able to determine the oilbearing threshold of hydrocarbon potential for the depressions in the Erlian Basin,which can be used as a standard for quantitative optimizations.Finally,the proposed prediction method was used to calculate the probability of hydrocarbons in the other 43 depressions.Based on this probability and on the oil-bearing threshold,the fi ve depressions with the highest potential were selected as targets for future seismic explorations and drilling.We conclude that the proposed method,which makes full use of massive gravity,magnetic,electric,and geological data,is fast,eff ective,and allows quantitative optimizations;hence,it will be of great value for the comprehensive geophysical evaluation of oil and gas in basins with depression group characteristics. 展开更多
关键词 Potential depressions Bayesian prediction feature parameters a priori information posterior probability
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Aeroengine Performance Parameter Prediction Based on Improved Regularization Extreme Learning Machine 被引量:1
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作者 CAO Yuyuan ZHANG Bowen WANG Huawei 《Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics》 EI CSCD 2021年第4期545-559,共15页
Performance parameter prediction technology is the core research content of aeroengine health management,and more and more machine learning algorithms have been applied in the field.Regularized extreme learning machin... Performance parameter prediction technology is the core research content of aeroengine health management,and more and more machine learning algorithms have been applied in the field.Regularized extreme learning machine(RELM)is one of them.However,the regularization parameter determination of RELM consumes computational resources,which makes it unsuitable in the field of aeroengine performance parameter prediction with a large amount of data.This paper uses the forward and backward segmentation(FBS)algorithms to improve the RELM performance,and introduces an adaptive step size determination method and an improved solution mechanism to obtain a new machine learning algorithm.While maintaining good generalization,the new algorithm is not sensitive to regularization parameters,which greatly saves computing resources.The experimental results on the public data sets prove the above conclusions.Finally,the new algorithm is applied to the prediction of aero-engine performance parameters,and the excellent prediction performance is achieved. 展开更多
关键词 extreme learning machine AEROENGINE performance parameter prediction forward and backward segmentation algorithms
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Failure Prediction Modeling of Lithium Ion Battery toward Distributed Parameter Estimation
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作者 吕汉白 平鑫宇 +2 位作者 高睿泉 许亮亮 潘力佳 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第5期547-552,I0001,I0002,共8页
Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electro... Lithium ion battery has typical character of distributed parameter system, and can be described precisely by partial differential equations and multi-physics theory because lithium ion battery is a complicated electrochemical energy storage system. A novel failure prediction modeling method of lithium ion battery based on distributed parameter estimation and single particle model is proposed in this work. Lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery is an unmeasurable distributed variable. Failure prediction system can estimate lithium ion concentration online, track the failure residual which is the difference between the estimated value and the ideal value. The precaution signal will be triggered when the failure residual is beyond the predefined failure precaution threshold, and the failure countdown prediction module will be activated. The remaining time of the severe failure threshold can be estimated by the failure countdown prediction module according to the changing rate of the failure residual. A simulation example verifies that lithium ion concentration in the anode of lithium ion battery can be estimated exactly and effectively by the failure prediction model. The precaution signal can be triggered reliably, and the remaining time of the severe failure can be forecasted accurately by the failure countdown prediction module. 展开更多
关键词 Lithium ion battery Failure prediction Battery model Distributed parameter
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Prediction of Superconductivity for Oxides Based on Structural Parameters and Artificial Neural Network Method 被引量:1
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作者 Xueye WANG and Huang SONG (Department of Chemistry, Xiangtan University, Xiangtan 411105, China) Guanzhou QIU and Dianzuo WANG (Department of Mineral Engineering, Central South University of Technology, Changsha 410083, China) 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2000年第4期435-438,共4页
Superconductive properties for oxides were predicted by artificial neural network (ANN) method with structural and chemical parameters as inputs. The predicted properties include superconductivity for oxides, distribu... Superconductive properties for oxides were predicted by artificial neural network (ANN) method with structural and chemical parameters as inputs. The predicted properties include superconductivity for oxides, distributed ranges of the superconductive transition temperature (Tc) for complex oxides, and Tc values for cuprate superconductors. The calculated results indicated that the adjusted ANN can be used to predict superconductive properties for unknown oxides. 展开更多
关键词 prediction of Superconductivity for Oxides Based on Structural parameters and Artificial Neural Network Method
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Machine learning prediction models for ground motion parameters and seismic damage assessment of buildings at a regional scale 被引量:1
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作者 Sanjeev Bhatta Xiandong Kang Ji Dang 《Resilient Cities and Structures》 2024年第1期84-102,共19页
This study examines the feasibility of using a machine learning approach for rapid damage assessment of rein-forced concrete(RC)buildings after the earthquake.Since the real-world damaged datasets are lacking,have lim... This study examines the feasibility of using a machine learning approach for rapid damage assessment of rein-forced concrete(RC)buildings after the earthquake.Since the real-world damaged datasets are lacking,have limited access,or are imbalanced,a simulation dataset is prepared by conducting a nonlinear time history analy-sis.Different machine learning(ML)models are trained considering the structural parameters and ground motion characteristics to predict the RC building damage into five categories:null,slight,moderate,heavy,and collapse.The random forest classifier(RFC)has achieved a higher prediction accuracy on testing and real-world damaged datasets.The structural parameters can be extracted using different means such as Google Earth,Open Street Map,unmanned aerial vehicles,etc.However,recording the ground motion at a closer distance requires the installation of a dense array of sensors which requires a higher cost.For places with no earthquake recording station/device,it is difficult to have ground motion characteristics.For that different ML-based regressor models are developed utilizing past-earthquake information to predict ground motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity.The random forest regressor(RFR)achieved better results than other regression models on testing and validation datasets.Furthermore,compared with the results of similar research works,a better result is obtained using RFC and RFR on validation datasets.In the end,these models are uti-lized to predict the damage categories of RC buildings at Saitama University and Okubo Danchi,Saitama,Japan after an earthquake.This damage information is crucial for government agencies or decision-makers to respond systematically in post-disaster situations. 展开更多
关键词 Seismic damage prediction Ground motion parameter Machine learning algorithms Nonlinear time history analysis RC buildings
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Parameter selection in time series prediction based on nu-support vector regression
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作者 胡亮 Che Xilong 《High Technology Letters》 EI CAS 2009年第4期337-342,共6页
The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of paralle... The theory of nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) is employed in modeling time series variationfor prediction. In order to avoid prediction performance degradation caused by improper parameters, themethod of parallel multidimensional step search (PMSS) is proposed for users to select best parameters intraining support vector machine to get a prediction model. A series of tests are performed to evaluate themodeling mechanism and prediction results indicate that Nu-SVR models can reflect the variation tendencyof time series with low prediction error on both familiar and unfamiliar data. Statistical analysis is alsoemployed to verify the optimization performance of PMSS algorithm and comparative results indicate thattraining error can take the minimum over the interval around planar data point corresponding to selectedparameters. Moreover, the introduction of parallelization can remarkably speed up the optimizing procedure. 展开更多
关键词 parameter selection time series prediction nu-support vector regression (Nu-SVR) parallel multidimensional step search (PMSS)
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Application of Ambient Stress Parameters to Short-Term Prediction of the 2004, M_S5.0 Shuangbai, Yunnan Earthquake
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作者 Qian Xiaodong Qin Jiazheng 《Earthquake Research in China》 2007年第1期43-54,共12页
Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. Wi... Based on the data recorded by the regional digital seismic network of Yunnan and using new methods, the short-term variations of the ambient stress field of Yunnan and its adjacent areas are monitored in real time. With the in-depth analyses of the spatial-temporal evolution of the ambient stress field prior to the 2004, Shuangbai M_S5.0 earthquake, concrete procedures for predicting the three elements of the earthquake are presented. 展开更多
关键词 Shuangbai earthquake Ambient stress parameter Short-term earthquake prediction
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BAYESIAN PREDICTION FOR THE TWO-PARAMETER EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION BASED ON TYPE Ⅱ DOUBLY CENSORING
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作者 LiYanling ZhaoXuanmin XieWenxian 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2005年第1期75-84,共10页
The two-parameter exponential distribution is proposed to be an underlying model,and prediction bounds for future observations are obtained by using Bayesian approach.Prediction intervals are derived for unobserved li... The two-parameter exponential distribution is proposed to be an underlying model,and prediction bounds for future observations are obtained by using Bayesian approach.Prediction intervals are derived for unobserved lifetimes in one-sample prediction and two-sample prediction based on type Ⅱ doubly censored samples.A numerical example is given to illustrate the procedures,prediction intervals are investigated via Monte Carlo method,and the accuracy of prediction intervals is presented. 展开更多
关键词 type doubly censoring two-parameter exponential distribution Bayesian prediction Monte Carlo method.
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Is Model Parameter Error Related to a Significant Spring Predictability Barrier for El Nio events? Results from a Theoretical Model 被引量:25
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作者 段晚锁 张蕊 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2010年第5期1003-1013,共11页
Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensit... Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode (CNOP-P) of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode (i.e. CNOP error) of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model. 展开更多
关键词 ENSO predictability optimal perturbation error growth model parameters
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Prediction model of end-point phosphorus content for BOF based on monotone-constrained BP neural network 被引量:6
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作者 Kai-xiao Zhou Wen-hui Lin +4 位作者 Jian-kun Sun Jiang-shan Zhang De-zheng Zhang Xiao-ming Feng Qing Liu 《Journal of Iron and Steel Research International》 SCIE EI CSCD 2022年第5期751-760,共10页
Dephosphorization is essential content in the steelmaking process,and the process after the converter has no dephosphorization function.Therefore,phosphorus must be removed to the required level in the converter proce... Dephosphorization is essential content in the steelmaking process,and the process after the converter has no dephosphorization function.Therefore,phosphorus must be removed to the required level in the converter process.In order to better control the end-point phosphorus content of basic oxygen furnace(BOF),a prediction model of end-point phosphorus content for BOF based on monotone-constrained backpropagation(BP)neural network was established.Through the theoretical analysis of the dephosphorization process,ten factors that affect the end-point phosphorus content were determined as the input variables of the model.The correlations between influencing factors and end-point phosphorus content were determined as the constraint condition of the model.200 sets of data were used to verify the accuracy of the model,and the hit ratios in the range of±0.005%and±0.003%are 94%and 74%,respectively.The fit coefficient of determination of the predicted value and the actual value is 0.8456,and the root-mean-square error is 0.0030;the predictive accuracy is better than that of ordinary BP neural network,and this model has good interpretability.It can provide useful reference for real production and also provide a new approach for metallurgical predictive modeling. 展开更多
关键词 Converter end-point phosphorus content Monotonic constraint BP neural network prediction model STEELMAKING
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Role of Parameter Errors in the Spring Predictability Barrier for ENSO Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model 被引量:2
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作者 YU Liang MU Mu Yanshan YU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2014年第3期647-656,共10页
ABSTRACT The impact of both initial and parameter errors on the spring predictability barrier (SPB) is investigated using the Zebiak Cane model (ZC model). Previous studies have shown that initial errors contribu... ABSTRACT The impact of both initial and parameter errors on the spring predictability barrier (SPB) is investigated using the Zebiak Cane model (ZC model). Previous studies have shown that initial errors contribute more to the SPB than parameter errors in the ZC model. Although parameter errors themselves are less important, there is a possibility that nonlinear interactions can occur between the two types of errors, leading to larger prediction errors compared with those induced by initial errors alone. In this case, the impact of parameter errors cannot be overlooked. In the present paper, the optimal combination of these two types of errors [i.e., conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) errors] is calculated to investigate whether this optimal error combination may cause a more notable SPB phenomenon than that caused by initial errors alone. Using the CNOP approach, the CNOP errors and CNOP-I errors (optimal errors when only initial errors are considered) are calculated and then three aspects of error growth are compared: (1) the tendency of the seasonal error growth; (2) the prediction error of the sea surface temperature anomaly; and (3) the pattern of error growth. All three aspects show that the CNOP errors do not cause a more significant SPB than the CNOP-I errors. Therefore, this result suggests that we could improve the prediction of the E1 Nifio during spring by simply focusing on reducing the initial errors in this model. 展开更多
关键词 ENSO predictability spring predictability barrier initial errors parameter errors error growth
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A progressive approach to predict shot peening process parameters for forming integral panel of Al7050-T7451 被引量:6
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作者 Chuang LIU Zhiyong ZHAO +1 位作者 Xianjie ZHANG Junbiao WANG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第5期617-627,共11页
In this paper,a progressive approach to predict the multiple shot peening process parameters for complex integral panel is proposed.Firstly,the invariable parameters in the forming process including shot size,mass flo... In this paper,a progressive approach to predict the multiple shot peening process parameters for complex integral panel is proposed.Firstly,the invariable parameters in the forming process including shot size,mass flow,peening distance and peening angle are determined according to the empirical and machine type.Then,the optimal value of air pressure for the whole shot peening is selected by the experimental data.Finally,the feeding speed for every shot peening path is predicted by regression equation.The integral panel part with thickness from 2 mm to 5 mm and curvature radius from 3200 mm to 16000 mm is taken as a research object,and four experiments are conducted.In order to design specimens for acquiring the forming data,one experiment is conducted to compare the curvature radius of the plate and stringer-structural specimens,which were peened along the middle of the two stringers.The most striking finding of this experiment is that the outer shape error range is below 3.9%,so the plate specimens can be used in predicting feeding speed of the integral panel.The second experiment is performed and results show that when the coverage reaches the limit of 80%,the minimum feeding speed is 50 mm/s.By this feeding speed,the forming curvature radius of the specimens with different thickness from the third experiment is measured and compared with the research object,and the optimal air pressure is 0.15 MPa.Then,the plate specimens with thickness from 2 mm to 5 mm are peened in the fourth experiment,and the measured curvature radius data are used to calculate the feeding speed of different shot peening path by regressive analysis method.The algorithm is validated by forming a test part and the average deviation is 0.496 mm.It is shown that the approach can realize the forming of the integral panel precisely. 展开更多
关键词 Curvature radius measure Integral panel Process parameters prediction Regressive analysis method Shot peening process
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Optimized Two-Level Ensemble Model for Predicting the Parameters of Metamaterial Antenna 被引量:2
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作者 Abdelaziz A.Abdelhamid Sultan R.Alotaibi 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2022年第10期917-933,共17页
Employing machine learning techniques in predicting the parameters of metamaterial antennas has a significant impact on the reduction of the time needed to design an antenna with optimal parameters using simulation to... Employing machine learning techniques in predicting the parameters of metamaterial antennas has a significant impact on the reduction of the time needed to design an antenna with optimal parameters using simulation tools.In this paper,we propose a new approach for predicting the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna using a novel ensemble model.The proposed ensemble model is composed of two levels of regression models.The first level consists of three strong models namely,random forest,support vector regression,and light gradient boosting machine.Whereas the second level is based on the ElasticNet regression model,which receives the prediction results from the models in the first level for refinement and producing the final optimal result.To achieve the best performance of these regression models,the advanced squirrel search optimization algorithm(ASSOA)is utilized to search for the optimal set of hyper-parameters of each model.Experimental results show that the proposed two-level ensemble model could achieve a robust prediction of the bandwidth of metamaterial antenna when compared with the recently published ensemble models based on the same publicly available benchmark dataset.The findings indicate that the proposed approach results in root mean square error(RMSE)of(0.013),mean absolute error(MAE)of(0.004),and mean bias error(MBE)of(0.0017).These results are superior to the other competing ensemble models and can predict the antenna bandwidth more accurately. 展开更多
关键词 Ensemble model parameter prediction metamaterial antenna machine learning model optimization
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