China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching targe...China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.展开更多
To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 polici...To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.展开更多
China＇s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China＇s economic development,...China＇s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China＇s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions： Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy- related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.展开更多
In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic l...In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.展开更多
In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must r...In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.展开更多
China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation,and local authorities need more city-specifc information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies.This study provi...China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation,and local authorities need more city-specifc information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies.This study provides the most comprehensive COemission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to2019.The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production.We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces.The results show that38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least fve years and another 21 cities also have emission decline,but passively.The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by effciency improvements and structural changes in energy use,while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss.We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline,and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals.Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.展开更多
China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain differ...China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025--2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually -0.2% in average and cumulatively -3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015-2030.展开更多
Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO_2 reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO_2 emissi...Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO_2 reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO_2 emissions reduction.They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment,and internal needs,to achieve sustainable development.Generally speaking,a country's CO_2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization.By then,connotative economic growth will appear,GDP will grow slowly,energy consumption elasticity will decrease,and energy consumption growth will slow down-dependent mainly on new and renewable energies.Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further.When CO_2 emission reaches its peak,the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate;and the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption.Therefore,three important approaches to promotion of CO_2 emission peak can be concluded:maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth,strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity,and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO_2 intensity of energy use.By around 2030,China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization.Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3%or higher.The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20-25%,and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6-8%.The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5%will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels.The annual decline in CO_2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5%or higher,which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5%in order to reach CO_2 emission peak.This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth.Achieving CO_2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development,but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green,low-carbon development.The CO_2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons,which means that CO_2 emission will increase by less than 50%compared with 2010.The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons,which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US,future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO_2 emission peak discussed above.It depends on current and future strategies and policies,as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation,innovation,and new energy technologies.If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations,the time required to reach CO_2emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected.Therefore,we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance;to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities;to enact mid-to long-term energy development strategies;and to establish and improve a system of laws,regulations,and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green,low-carbon development Oriented by positive and urgent CO_2 reduction and peak targets,the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green,low-carbon development as soon as possible.展开更多
China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2...China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.展开更多
With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic...With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.展开更多
On September 22nd, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping made a solemn commitment to peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality to the international community at the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembl...On September 22nd, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping made a solemn commitment to peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality to the international community at the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembly, and put forward the goal that "China will strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". On March 15th, 2021, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the 9th meeting of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics, stressing that "we should build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, focus on improving the utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. Electric power is an important basic industry related to peoples lives. The safety supervision and operation of power system is the premise of the sustainable development of power industry, which plays an important role in the development of national economy. Especially under the current power market conditions, it is very important to strengthen the research on the safety management of power system to ensure the normal power supply of national economy. At the same time, it can improve the operation and management of the power system, and improve its ability to respond to various emergencies. This paper introduces the advantages of implementing carbon neutrality in electric power industry, deeply studies various factors that affect the safety supervision of electric power operation under the influence of "double carbon", and puts forward effective measures to strengthen the safety of electric power dispatching management, so as to provide guidance for improving the safety of electric power operation in China.展开更多
Todays energy problem has become an urgent problem to be solved in China and even in the world. The realization of the 2030 peak carbon dioxide emissions and 2060 carbon neutral (double carbon) targets is both related...Todays energy problem has become an urgent problem to be solved in China and even in the world. The realization of the 2030 peak carbon dioxide emissions and 2060 carbon neutral (double carbon) targets is both related to Chinas healthy and sustainable development and the objective need of human sustainable development, i.e. green and low carbon circular development. This paper analyzes the characteristics of contract energy management, and puts forward the concept of tradable contract carbon asset management according to the development of dual-carbon situation in our country. It also compares and analyzes the similarities and differences between contract energy management and contract carbon asset management. Through the demand analysis of contract carbon asset management, it elaborates in detail how to carry out contract energy management, the existing problems in the current industry and puts forward suggestions for the follow-up development of contract energy management. Contract carbon asset management has the characteristics of novel management model and obvious effect of changing carbon emission structure. It will play an important role in Chinas energy structure transformation management in the future and will greatly promote the development of Chinas dual carbon industry.展开更多
The fiber reinforced concrete has good dynamic mechanical properties. But corresponding research lacks the dynamic damage characteristics of the polypropylene fiber（fiber of low elastic modulus） and steel fiber（fib...The fiber reinforced concrete has good dynamic mechanical properties. But corresponding research lacks the dynamic damage characteristics of the polypropylene fiber（fiber of low elastic modulus） and steel fiber（fiber of high elastic modulus） reinforced concrete under medium strain rate（10-6 s-1-10-4 s-1）. In order to study the effect of strain rate on the damage characteristics of fiber reinforced concrete during the full curve damage process, the real time dynamic acoustic emission（AE） technique was applied to monitor the damage process of fiber reinforced concrete at three strain rates. The AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band and average AE peak frequency at three strain rates were analyzed. With the accumulation of damage, the AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band increased first and then decreased, and the average AE peak frequency increased gradually. With the increase of strain rate, the AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band and average AE peak frequency decreased gradually. The polypropylene fiber content has more obvious effect on the Dynamic increase factor（DIF） of the peak stress than the steel fiber content. The theoretical basis was provided for the monitoring of dynamic damage of fiber reinforced concrete based on the AE technique.展开更多
Greenhouse gas emissions from waste plastics have caused global warming all over the world,which has been a central threat to the ecological environment for humans,flora and fauna.Among waste plastics,waste polyethyle...Greenhouse gas emissions from waste plastics have caused global warming all over the world,which has been a central threat to the ecological environment for humans,flora and fauna.Among waste plastics,waste polyethylene terephthalate(PET)is attractive due to its excellent stability and degradation-resistant.Therefore,merging China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals would be beneficial.In this review,we summarize the current state-of-the-art of carbon emission decrease from a multi-scale perspective technologically.We suggest that the carbon peak for waste PET can be achieved by employing the closed-loop supply chain,including recycling,biomass utilization,carbon capture and utilization.Waste PET can be a valuable and renewable resource in the whole life cycle.Undoubtedly,all kinds of PET plastics can be ultimately converted into CO_(2),which can also be feedstock for various kinds of chemical products,including ethyl alcohol,formic acid,soda ash,PU,starch and so on.As a result,the closed-loop supply chain can help the PET plastics industry drastically reduce its carbon footprint.展开更多
Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the...Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2)from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2)to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2)in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3)of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3)and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4)has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4)into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.展开更多
Lanthanide(Ln^(3+))-doped luminescent nanocrystals(NCs)with excitation and emission in the second near-infrared biological window(NIRII,1000-1700 nm)have attracted considerable attention in the fields of deep-tissue b...Lanthanide(Ln^(3+))-doped luminescent nanocrystals(NCs)with excitation and emission in the second near-infrared biological window(NIRII,1000-1700 nm)have attracted considerable attention in the fields of deep-tissue bioimaging and non-invasive biodetection,owing to their superior advantages including good photochemical stability,sharp emission peaks,large penetration depth,and high signal-to-noise ratio[1].Conventionally,Yb3t-and Nd3t-sensitized NCs have been utilized as NIR-II luminescent nanoprobes for in vivo bioimaging upon excitation with 980 and 808 nm diode laser,respectively[2].展开更多
The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China,promoting the d...The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China,promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium-and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with "bottom-up" modeling analysis and proposes a medium-and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies' mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product(GDP) by 60-65% from the 2005 level.From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial lowcarbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.展开更多
The compilation of technology lists addressing climate change has a guiding effect on promoting technological research and development,demonstration,and popularization.It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecolog...The compilation of technology lists addressing climate change has a guiding effect on promoting technological research and development,demonstration,and popularization.It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecological civilization construction,achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality target,and enhance global climate governance capabilities.This study first proposes the existing classification outline of the technology promotion lists,technology demand lists,and future technology lists.Then,different methodologies are integrated on the basis of the existing outline of four technology lists:China’s existing technological promotion list for addressing climate change,China’s demand list for climate change mitigation technology,China’s key technology list for addressing climate change,and China’s future technology list for addressing climate change.What’s more,core technologies are analyzed in the aspects of technology maturity,carbon reduction cost,carbon reduction potential,economic benefits,social influence,uncertainty,etc.The results show that:key industries and sectors in China already have relatively mature mitigation/adaptation technologies to support the achievement of climate change targets.The multi-sectoral system of promoting climate friendly technologies has been established,which has played an active role in tackling climate change.Currently,climate technology needs are concentrated in the traditional technology and equipment upgrading,renewable energy technology,and management decision-making support technology.The key technologies are concentrated in 3 major areas and 12 technological directions that urgently need a breakthrough.For carbon emmission peak and nentrality,carbon depth reduction and zero carbon emissions and geoengineering technology(CDR and SRM)have played an important role in forming the structure of global emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in the future.Thus,the uncertainty assessment for the comprehensive technology cost effectiveness,technology integration direction,technical maturity,ethics and ecological impacts is supportive to the national technology strategy.Finally,the presented study proposes several policy implications for medium-and long-term technology deployment,improving technology conversion rate,promoting the research and development of core technologies,and forming a technology list collaborative update and release mechanism.展开更多
The carbon market auction mechanism is an important policy tool for carbon pricing and a key mechanism that supports carbon emission neutralization,especially for China.A few systematic studies exist on China’s carbo...The carbon market auction mechanism is an important policy tool for carbon pricing and a key mechanism that supports carbon emission neutralization,especially for China.A few systematic studies exist on China’s carbon market auction mechanism.This article focuses on the five auction mechanisms in Chinese pilot emission trading schemes(ETS),reviews the structures and bidding situation of the five-pilot auction mechanism,extracts the similarities,and analyzes their different features,such as auction mode,bidding scale,participants,pricing mode,auction frequency,and so on.This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the carbon allowance auction mechanism in the Guangdong pilot ETS of China,including its development and the evolution of the key elements,its operational effects,and related disputes.Finally,this study puts forward the trend forecast and suggestions for the Chinese allowance auction mechanism,such as the time window of launching national allowance auctions,the most likely auction mode,carbon pricing,and bidding revenue management.Carbon pricing by auction is the most powerful policy tool for addressing carbon emissions reduction and implementing the Glasgow Climate Pact.展开更多
With less than ten years left to meet its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions(peak emissions hereafter) by 2030,China has entered a critical emissions reduction stage. How to meet this commitment in a context in w...With less than ten years left to meet its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions(peak emissions hereafter) by 2030,China has entered a critical emissions reduction stage. How to meet this commitment in a context in which GDP per capita will double from 2020 by 2035 is a major decision-making issue for the Chinese government and people and one which warrants further study. To reveal the relationships between the GDP growth rate, the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the time to reach peak emissions, this study translates the question as to “when China's carbon emissions peak will occur” into “how can one control the rate of carbon intensity decrease at a given GDP growth rate”. In the light of the results of a random forest algorithm used to identify and project the key drivers of carbon intensity in China, a mathematical model was developed to simulate different scenarios relating to decreases in carbon intensity. The date at which Chinese carbon emissions will peak is predicted by comparing the rate of decrease of carbon intensity with the GDP growth rate. The results show that the time to peak emissions depends on the relationship between the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the GDP growth rate, where the former depends mainly on the energy structure and policy. If China's annual GDP growth rate were 5.0% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, and if the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption were 23.0% or above, China's carbon emissions will peak before2030. If the share of non-fossil fuels were 20.0% or less, China might not be able to reach its 2030 target. In this latter case an acceleration in the pace of energy restructuring would be required to reach peak emissions before 2030. The projected peak emissions scenarios suggest that the carbon peak will occur between 2025 to 2029, with average peak emissions of 11.2 billion tons and a distribution ranging from a minimum of 10.5 billion and a maximum of 11.9 billion tons. If the GDP growth rate were4.5%, 5.5% or 6.0% during the 15th Five-year Plan, the share of non-fossil energy must reach 23.0%, 25.0% or 27.0%,respectively, to ensure that emissions peak by 2030. The results of this study provide a series of reference points for China's pursuit of feasible pathways to peak carbon emissions by 2030.展开更多
基金supported by Major Program of Humanities and Social Science Base,Ministry of Education(No.10JJD630011)
文摘China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.
基金funded by the National Natural Fund of China(71173206)the Strategic Priority Research ProgramdClimate Change:Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA05150300)
文摘To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.
文摘China＇s energy supply-and-demand model and two related carbon emission scenarios, including a planned peak scenario and an advanced peak scenario, are designed taking into consideration China＇s economic development, technological progress, policies, resources, environmental capacity, and other factors. The analysis of the defined scenarios provides the following conclusions： Primary energy and power demand will continue to grow leading up to 2030, and the growth rate of power demand will be much higher than that of primary energy demand. Moreover, low carbonization will be a basic feature of energy supply-and-demand structural changes, and non-fossil energy will replace oil as the second largest energy source. Finally, energy- related carbon emissions could peak in 2025 through the application of more efficient energy consumption patterns and more low-carbon energy supply modes. The push toward decarbonization of the power industry is essential for reducing the peak value of carbon emissions.
文摘In order to achieve the development goals of emission peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060,carbon reduction measures should be implemented in the whole industrial chain.Based on the existing research,the basic logic of carbon reduction in the industrial chain is analyzed,and then the specific strategies for carbon reduction in the industrial chain are proposed,including:reducing the use of fossil energy and vigorously developing the new energy industry;reducing carbon through energy conservation,industrial upgrading,development of circular economy,and application of carbon capture technology;reducing carbon through low-carbon transformation of logistics industry,innovation of trading methods,and promotion of low-carbon green consumption.The external guarantee system for carbon reduction includes the introduction of relevant policies,laws and regulations,and the use of carbon emission trading mechanism.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China Projects "Study on the Forced Mechanism of Carbon Emission Peak Target in China:Transition Pathways,Emission Reduction Performance and Economic Effects"[grant number:71673217],"Study on Green Behaviors of Households"[grant number:71573217]Shaanxi Soft Science Research Project "Cost and Benefit analysis of Residential End-use Demand Side Management under Smart Grid in Xi'an City"[grant number:2015KRM143]
文摘In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target(CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China's economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from "research on carbon emission history" to "carbon emission trend prediction," from "research on paths of realizing peak" to "peak restraint research," provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China's carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore,this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism.Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72140001 and 41921005)Shandong Provincial Science Fund for Excellent Youth Scholars(ZR2021YQ27)+1 种基金the National Social Science Fund of China(21ZDA065)the Natural Environment Research Council(2021GRIP02COP-AQ)。
文摘China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation,and local authorities need more city-specifc information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies.This study provides the most comprehensive COemission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to2019.The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production.We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces.The results show that38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least fve years and another 21 cities also have emission decline,but passively.The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by effciency improvements and structural changes in energy use,while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss.We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline,and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals.Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.
基金supported by National Science and Technology Program"The Key Supporting Research of The International Negotiations on Climate Change and the Domestic Emission Reduction"(2012BAC20B04)
文摘China has achieved a political consensus around the need to transform the path of economic growth toward one that lowers carbon intensity and ultimately leads to reductions in carbon emissions, but there remain different views on pathways that could achieve such a transformation. The essential question is whether radical or incremental reforms are required in the coming decades. This study explores relevant pathways in China beyond 2020, particularly modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China around 2030 as China-US Joint Announcement by an integrated assessment model for climate change IAMC based on carbon factor theory. Here scenarios DGS-2020, LGS2025, LBS-2030 and DBS-2040 derived from the historical pathways of developed countries are developed to access the comprehensive impacts on the economy, energy and climate security for the greener development in China. The findings suggest that the period of 2025--2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve a peak in carbon emissions at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 t per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth, annually -0.2% in average and cumulatively -3% deviation to BAU in 2030. The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively while the non-fossil energy and electricity share will rise to above 20% and 45%. Meantime, the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity energy ratio approaching 50%, the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level, and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in 2015-2030.
基金supported by Major programs of humanities and social science base,Ministry of Education[grant number10JJD630011]
文摘Establishing positive and urgent targets for CO_2 reduction and emission peak,and promoting energy conservation and energy structure adjustment are among the strategies to address global climate change and CO_2 emissions reduction.They are also means to break through the constraints of domestic resources and environment,and internal needs,to achieve sustainable development.Generally speaking,a country's CO_2 emission peak appears after achieving urbanization and industrialization.By then,connotative economic growth will appear,GDP will grow slowly,energy consumption elasticity will decrease,and energy consumption growth will slow down-dependent mainly on new and renewable energies.Fossil fuel consumption will not increase further.When CO_2 emission reaches its peak,the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of GDP is greater than GDP annual growth rate;and the annual reduction rate of CO_2 intensity of energy use is greater than the annual growth rate of energy consumption.Therefore,three important approaches to promotion of CO_2 emission peak can be concluded:maintaining reasonable control of GDP growth,strengthening energy conservation to significantly reduce the GDP energy intensity,and optimizing the energy mix to reduce the CO_2 intensity of energy use.By around 2030,China will basically have completed its rapid development phase of industrialization and urbanization.Connotative economic growth will appear with the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment The target of GDP energy intensity will still be to maintain an average annual reduction of 3%or higher.The proportion of non-fossil fuels will reach 20-25%,and the aim will be to maintain an average annual growth rate of 6-8%.The total annual energy demand growth of 1.5%will be satisfied by the newly increased supply of non-fossil fuels.The annual decline in CO_2 intensity of GDP will reach 4.5%or higher,which is compatible with an average annual GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5%in order to reach CO_2 emission peak.This corresponds to the level of China's potential economic growth.Achieving CO_2 emission peak will not impose a rigid constraint on economic development,but rather promote economic development and accelerate the transformation of green,low-carbon development.The CO_2 emission peak can be controlled with a cap of 11 billion tons,which means that CO_2 emission will increase by less than 50%compared with 2010.The per capita emission peak will be controlled at a level of less than 8 tons,which is lower than the 9.5 tons in the EU and Japan and much lower than the 20 tons in the US,future economic and social development faces many uncertainties in achieving the CO_2 emission peak discussed above.It depends on current and future strategies and policies,as well as the pace and strength of economic transformation,innovation,and new energy technologies.If the economic transformation pattern fails to meet expectations,the time required to reach CO_2emission peak would be delayed and the peak level would be higher than expected.Therefore,we need to coordinate thoughts and ideas and deploy these in advance;to highlight the strategic position of low-carbon development and its priorities;to enact mid-to long-term energy development strategies;and to establish and improve a system of laws,regulations,and policies as well as an implementation mechanism for green,low-carbon development Oriented by positive and urgent CO_2 reduction and peak targets,the government would form a reversed mechanism to promote economic transformation and embark on the path of green,low-carbon development as soon as possible.
文摘China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.
基金Supported by the Social Science Foundation of Yangtze University(2014csq013)
文摘With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.
文摘On September 22nd, 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping made a solemn commitment to peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality to the international community at the general debate of the 75th UN General Assembly, and put forward the goal that "China will strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060". On March 15th, 2021, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over the 9th meeting of the Central Committee of Finance and Economics, stressing that "we should build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, focus on improving the utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the main body. Electric power is an important basic industry related to peoples lives. The safety supervision and operation of power system is the premise of the sustainable development of power industry, which plays an important role in the development of national economy. Especially under the current power market conditions, it is very important to strengthen the research on the safety management of power system to ensure the normal power supply of national economy. At the same time, it can improve the operation and management of the power system, and improve its ability to respond to various emergencies. This paper introduces the advantages of implementing carbon neutrality in electric power industry, deeply studies various factors that affect the safety supervision of electric power operation under the influence of "double carbon", and puts forward effective measures to strengthen the safety of electric power dispatching management, so as to provide guidance for improving the safety of electric power operation in China.
文摘Todays energy problem has become an urgent problem to be solved in China and even in the world. The realization of the 2030 peak carbon dioxide emissions and 2060 carbon neutral (double carbon) targets is both related to Chinas healthy and sustainable development and the objective need of human sustainable development, i.e. green and low carbon circular development. This paper analyzes the characteristics of contract energy management, and puts forward the concept of tradable contract carbon asset management according to the development of dual-carbon situation in our country. It also compares and analyzes the similarities and differences between contract energy management and contract carbon asset management. Through the demand analysis of contract carbon asset management, it elaborates in detail how to carry out contract energy management, the existing problems in the current industry and puts forward suggestions for the follow-up development of contract energy management. Contract carbon asset management has the characteristics of novel management model and obvious effect of changing carbon emission structure. It will play an important role in Chinas energy structure transformation management in the future and will greatly promote the development of Chinas dual carbon industry.
基金Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51009058)Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China(No.2011M501160)+1 种基金the University Natural Science Research Project of Jiangsu Province(No.13KJD560002)the Doctoral Research Start-up Fund of Jinling Institute of Technology(No.Jit-b-201321)
文摘The fiber reinforced concrete has good dynamic mechanical properties. But corresponding research lacks the dynamic damage characteristics of the polypropylene fiber（fiber of low elastic modulus） and steel fiber（fiber of high elastic modulus） reinforced concrete under medium strain rate（10-6 s-1-10-4 s-1）. In order to study the effect of strain rate on the damage characteristics of fiber reinforced concrete during the full curve damage process, the real time dynamic acoustic emission（AE） technique was applied to monitor the damage process of fiber reinforced concrete at three strain rates. The AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band and average AE peak frequency at three strain rates were analyzed. With the accumulation of damage, the AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band increased first and then decreased, and the average AE peak frequency increased gradually. With the increase of strain rate, the AE wavelet energy spectrum in ca8 frequency band and average AE peak frequency decreased gradually. The polypropylene fiber content has more obvious effect on the Dynamic increase factor（DIF） of the peak stress than the steel fiber content. The theoretical basis was provided for the monitoring of dynamic damage of fiber reinforced concrete based on the AE technique.
基金The authors acknowledge the financial support provided by the Key R&D Program of Shaanxi Province(No.2022SF-168)Xi’an Programs for Science and Technology Plan(Nos.2020KJRC0090 and 21XJZZ0045)+5 种基金Xi’an Beilin District Programs for Science and Technology Plan(No.GX2247)the Outstanding Chinese and Foreign Youth Exchange Program of China Association for Science and Technology(CAST)in 2019the Opening Project of Shanxi Key Laboratory of Advanced Manufacturing Technology(No.XJZZ202001)the Scientific Research Project of Shaanxi Education Department(No.20JS108)Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Auxiliary Chemistry and Technology for Chemical Industry,Ministry of Education,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology(No.KFKT2021-01)Shaanxi Collaborative Innovation Center of Industrial Auxiliary Chemistry and Technology,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology(No.KFKT2021-01).
文摘Greenhouse gas emissions from waste plastics have caused global warming all over the world,which has been a central threat to the ecological environment for humans,flora and fauna.Among waste plastics,waste polyethylene terephthalate(PET)is attractive due to its excellent stability and degradation-resistant.Therefore,merging China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals would be beneficial.In this review,we summarize the current state-of-the-art of carbon emission decrease from a multi-scale perspective technologically.We suggest that the carbon peak for waste PET can be achieved by employing the closed-loop supply chain,including recycling,biomass utilization,carbon capture and utilization.Waste PET can be a valuable and renewable resource in the whole life cycle.Undoubtedly,all kinds of PET plastics can be ultimately converted into CO_(2),which can also be feedstock for various kinds of chemical products,including ethyl alcohol,formic acid,soda ash,PU,starch and so on.As a result,the closed-loop supply chain can help the PET plastics industry drastically reduce its carbon footprint.
基金supported by the projects of the China Geological Survey(DD20190102,DD20221857).
文摘Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2)from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2)to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2)in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3)of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m,and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of(1.34-88.8)×10^(10)m^(3)and(1.57-104)×10^(10)m^(3)of CH_(4),respectively by 2030 and 2050.Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH_(4)has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide,the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH_(4)into the atmosphere,which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming.Therefore,the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality.Accordingly,this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction,storage,and transportation,and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them.The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect,thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12474418,U22A20398,and 22135008).
文摘Lanthanide(Ln^(3+))-doped luminescent nanocrystals(NCs)with excitation and emission in the second near-infrared biological window(NIRII,1000-1700 nm)have attracted considerable attention in the fields of deep-tissue bioimaging and non-invasive biodetection,owing to their superior advantages including good photochemical stability,sharp emission peaks,large penetration depth,and high signal-to-noise ratio[1].Conventionally,Yb3t-and Nd3t-sensitized NCs have been utilized as NIR-II luminescent nanoprobes for in vivo bioimaging upon excitation with 980 and 808 nm diode laser,respectively[2].
基金supported by The National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2016YFA0602800)The Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in 2050 ProjectChina's Deep Low Carbon Transition Pathway Research Project
文摘The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change, which further clarifies the long-term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change. For China,promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium-and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change, but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society. Based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development, as well as society, energy consumption, and key end-use sectors in China, this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy, industry, building, and transportation and other sectors with "bottom-up" modeling analysis and proposes a medium-and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies' mitigation potentials for China. It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway, China will successfully realize the goals set in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product(GDP) by 60-65% from the 2005 level.From 2030 onward, the development of nonfossil energy will further accelerates, and the share of nonfossil energies in primary energy will amounts to about 44% by 2050. Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end-use sectors including industry, building, and transportation, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005, and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decreases by more than 90% from the 2005 level. To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway, this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives, including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations, improving the incentive policies for industrial lowcarbon development, enhancing the role of the market mechanism, and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.
基金Special Programm for Compiling the Fourth National Assessment Report on Climate Change of the Ministry of Science and Technology.
文摘The compilation of technology lists addressing climate change has a guiding effect on promoting technological research and development,demonstration,and popularization.It is also crucial for China to strengthen ecological civilization construction,achieve the carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality target,and enhance global climate governance capabilities.This study first proposes the existing classification outline of the technology promotion lists,technology demand lists,and future technology lists.Then,different methodologies are integrated on the basis of the existing outline of four technology lists:China’s existing technological promotion list for addressing climate change,China’s demand list for climate change mitigation technology,China’s key technology list for addressing climate change,and China’s future technology list for addressing climate change.What’s more,core technologies are analyzed in the aspects of technology maturity,carbon reduction cost,carbon reduction potential,economic benefits,social influence,uncertainty,etc.The results show that:key industries and sectors in China already have relatively mature mitigation/adaptation technologies to support the achievement of climate change targets.The multi-sectoral system of promoting climate friendly technologies has been established,which has played an active role in tackling climate change.Currently,climate technology needs are concentrated in the traditional technology and equipment upgrading,renewable energy technology,and management decision-making support technology.The key technologies are concentrated in 3 major areas and 12 technological directions that urgently need a breakthrough.For carbon emmission peak and nentrality,carbon depth reduction and zero carbon emissions and geoengineering technology(CDR and SRM)have played an important role in forming the structure of global emissions and achieving carbon neutrality in the future.Thus,the uncertainty assessment for the comprehensive technology cost effectiveness,technology integration direction,technical maturity,ethics and ecological impacts is supportive to the national technology strategy.Finally,the presented study proposes several policy implications for medium-and long-term technology deployment,improving technology conversion rate,promoting the research and development of core technologies,and forming a technology list collaborative update and release mechanism.
基金supported by Shenzhen Philosophy and Social Sciences Planning in 2021[Grant No.SZ2021A006]the Basic Theoretical Research in the 13th Five Year Plan of Guangdong Philosophy and Social Sciences in 2020[Grant No.GD20 YDXZGL09]and the Characteristic Innovation Projects of Guangdong Universities in China[Grant No.2021WTSCX035].
文摘The carbon market auction mechanism is an important policy tool for carbon pricing and a key mechanism that supports carbon emission neutralization,especially for China.A few systematic studies exist on China’s carbon market auction mechanism.This article focuses on the five auction mechanisms in Chinese pilot emission trading schemes(ETS),reviews the structures and bidding situation of the five-pilot auction mechanism,extracts the similarities,and analyzes their different features,such as auction mode,bidding scale,participants,pricing mode,auction frequency,and so on.This study conducts an in-depth analysis of the carbon allowance auction mechanism in the Guangdong pilot ETS of China,including its development and the evolution of the key elements,its operational effects,and related disputes.Finally,this study puts forward the trend forecast and suggestions for the Chinese allowance auction mechanism,such as the time window of launching national allowance auctions,the most likely auction mode,carbon pricing,and bidding revenue management.Carbon pricing by auction is the most powerful policy tool for addressing carbon emissions reduction and implementing the Glasgow Climate Pact.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2016YFA0602804)。
文摘With less than ten years left to meet its pledge to peak carbon dioxide emissions(peak emissions hereafter) by 2030,China has entered a critical emissions reduction stage. How to meet this commitment in a context in which GDP per capita will double from 2020 by 2035 is a major decision-making issue for the Chinese government and people and one which warrants further study. To reveal the relationships between the GDP growth rate, the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the time to reach peak emissions, this study translates the question as to “when China's carbon emissions peak will occur” into “how can one control the rate of carbon intensity decrease at a given GDP growth rate”. In the light of the results of a random forest algorithm used to identify and project the key drivers of carbon intensity in China, a mathematical model was developed to simulate different scenarios relating to decreases in carbon intensity. The date at which Chinese carbon emissions will peak is predicted by comparing the rate of decrease of carbon intensity with the GDP growth rate. The results show that the time to peak emissions depends on the relationship between the rate of decrease of carbon intensity and the GDP growth rate, where the former depends mainly on the energy structure and policy. If China's annual GDP growth rate were 5.0% during the 15th Five-Year Plan, and if the share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption were 23.0% or above, China's carbon emissions will peak before2030. If the share of non-fossil fuels were 20.0% or less, China might not be able to reach its 2030 target. In this latter case an acceleration in the pace of energy restructuring would be required to reach peak emissions before 2030. The projected peak emissions scenarios suggest that the carbon peak will occur between 2025 to 2029, with average peak emissions of 11.2 billion tons and a distribution ranging from a minimum of 10.5 billion and a maximum of 11.9 billion tons. If the GDP growth rate were4.5%, 5.5% or 6.0% during the 15th Five-year Plan, the share of non-fossil energy must reach 23.0%, 25.0% or 27.0%,respectively, to ensure that emissions peak by 2030. The results of this study provide a series of reference points for China's pursuit of feasible pathways to peak carbon emissions by 2030.
