One of the most notable developments in the asset management industry in recent decades has been the growth of algorithmic trading.At the same time,significant structural changes in the industry have occurred,with pas...One of the most notable developments in the asset management industry in recent decades has been the growth of algorithmic trading.At the same time,significant structural changes in the industry have occurred,with passive investing gaining momentum.The intersection of these two major trends poses special challenges during market downturns,magnifying portfolio losses and leading to significant outflows.Emerging market(EM)investors have seen two major downturn events in the 2020s,namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,both of which have strongly affected EM portfolios’risk-return profiles and increased their correlations with their developed market counterparts,eliminating much or all of EMs’diversification benefits.This has led to major capital outflows from EM countries,further destabilizing these fragile economies.Against this backdrop,we argue that capital need not exit these riskier markets during periods of turmoil and support this by developing a second-generation Automated Adaptive Trading System(AATS)back-tested on a relevant,diversified EM portfolio that tracks the Morgan Stanley Capital International(MSCI)Emerging Markets Index during a volatile period characterized by negative returns,high risk,and a high correlation with global markets for the buy-and-hold EM portfolio.The system incorporates an Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model that offers an interpretability advantage over machine-learning methods.The main strength of the AATS is its ability to allow the embedded hybrid forecasting model to adapt to the changing environments that characterize EMs.This is done by implementing a recursive window technique and running a user-specified fitness function to dynamically optimize the mean equation parameters throughout the lead time.Back-testing several configurations of the flexible AATS consistently reveals its superiority while assuring the robustness of the results.We conclude that with the right investment tools,EMs continue to offer compelling opportunities that should not be overlooked.The novel AATS proposed in this study is such a tool,providing active EM investors with substantial value-added through its ability to generate abnormal returns,and can help to enhance the resilience of EMs by mitigating the cost of crises for those countries.展开更多
The Emerging Markets and Developing Countries Forum on Bridging the AI Divide and Opening Ceremony of AIM Global CoE were held on July 27 in Minhang district,Shanghai.The event was hosted by AIM Global CoE,and co-orga...The Emerging Markets and Developing Countries Forum on Bridging the AI Divide and Opening Ceremony of AIM Global CoE were held on July 27 in Minhang district,Shanghai.The event was hosted by AIM Global CoE,and co-organized by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Research Institute(SAIRI),Shanghai Technology Innovation Center,Shanghai Grand Neobay Investment Development Group,and Organizing Committee of AI Journey Conference.Asian Association of Business Incubation(AABI)and SAIRI served as the international partners.展开更多
Cryptocurrency,a booming decentralised asset designed based on the blockchain architecture,is particularly important to the market at the present time by studying the volatility risk of cryptocurrencies.In this paper,...Cryptocurrency,a booming decentralised asset designed based on the blockchain architecture,is particularly important to the market at the present time by studying the volatility risk of cryptocurrencies.In this paper,we empirically analyse the volatility risk of cryptocurrencies through quantitative analysis models,comprehensively using the Markov state transition GARCH model with skewed distribution(Skew-MSGARCH)and the autoregressive conditional volatility density ARJI model introducing the Poisson jump factor,and selecting the earliest developed and the most mature currency price volatility daily return series,to deeply explore the volatility risk of digital cryptocurrencies.risk.Finally,it can be seen through in-depth analyses that the expectation factor and information inducement are the main reasons leading to the exacerbation of the volatility risk of digital cryptocurrencies.It is recommended that this situation be optimised and improved in terms of the value function of digital cryptocurrencies themselves and the implementation of systematic risk management and regulatory innovation.As an important component of the digital economy,blockchain technology can effectively regulate and improve the volatility of digital cryptocurrencies under macroeconomic policies,thereby maintaining the security and stability of emerging financial markets.展开更多
This study explores correlations and risk spillovers,essential concepts for financial risk management,among commodities(crude oil,gold,and a global commodities index)and emerging stock markets.Using the Asymmetric Dyn...This study explores correlations and risk spillovers,essential concepts for financial risk management,among commodities(crude oil,gold,and a global commodities index)and emerging stock markets.Using the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation–Conditional Value-at-Risk(ADCC-CoVaR)model and a bootstrapped Kolmogorov–Smirnov(KS)test,we analyze the period from December 30,2005,to February 28,2024,examining correlations,downside and upside risk spillovers,and highlighting the effects of major events such as the global financial crisis of 2008,the COVID-19 pandemic,and the Russia-Ukraine war.The results show heightened correlations during crises and significant risk spillovers across market pairs,with downside risks often outweighing upside risks.Gold displays minimal risk spillover,highlighting its unique role as a haven asset.We find that spillovers between gold,global commodities,and stocks increased during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,while those involving crude oil remained stable.These findings provide valuable guidance for portfolio managers in navigating volatile markets.展开更多
Peer-to-peer(P2P)lending has the potential to boost financial inclusion in emerging markets.This paper contributes to the literature on fintech governance in emerging Asian markets.It examines the case of the Indonesi...Peer-to-peer(P2P)lending has the potential to boost financial inclusion in emerging markets.This paper contributes to the literature on fintech governance in emerging Asian markets.It examines the case of the Indonesian government’s approach in regulating the P2P lending sector using both primary interviews and secondary firmlevel data.Driven by regulation tightening in China and regulatory gaps in Indonesia,Chinese investments became the largest in this sector contributing,however,to growing risks from illegal business practices.The Indonesian government responded by creating new regulations and institutions,mitigating risks without stifling the potential for financial inclusion.We conclude a proactive approach towards monitoring and regulating emerging high-tech industries should be sought by strengthening links with industry and civil society,and through international cooperation for policy and knowledge sharing.展开更多
The obviously ever increasing number of corporate acquisitions in recent decades has improved the general knowledge and awareness of due diligence for both the industry and research. In the current challenging busines...The obviously ever increasing number of corporate acquisitions in recent decades has improved the general knowledge and awareness of due diligence for both the industry and research. In the current challenging business environment, acquisitions face a higher degree of risk profiles, especially cross-border acquisitions in the emerging markets. Conducting a thorough due diligence investigation in the context of an acquisition is more important now than ever. In a broad analysis, this paper researches the key risk factors in the acquisition process and their assessment within a due diligence audit in the acquisition phase. The task of this paper is to match the academic and practical view in order to give a more complete understanding of risk factors to be covered in due diligence audit. The starting point is the research of academic findings which basically concentrate on common approaches considering financial, legal, commercial, and some other issues in domestic acquisitions and in developed countries. In contrast, this paper considers risk factors in cross-border and emerging markets transactions. In addition, a number of business consultants publish studies based on surveys on this topic which reflect typical risk factors based on experience of their customers being involved in cross-border acquisitions. Their risk assessment consists of specific regulatory, political, and other factors, which may lead to commercial and reputational impediments in cross-border acquisitions. The outcome of the comparison is a comprehended list of evaluated risk factors, whereby the academic findings are complemented and supported by the practical experience in the business consultant＇s studies. Moreover, the practical approach points to the fact that due diligence scope needs to be suited to the dynamics of the markets. The comparison and the comprehended list of evaluated risk factors call for a more integrated system of due diligence and show herein the research deficit. Hence, the novelty is the compendium of evaluated risk factors which should be assessed in the pre-acquisition phase. The originality of the paper is given by a unique analysis of academic work about acquisition due diligence literature and consultant studies from anonymized practical experience based on insider information.展开更多
The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to...The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to isolate a female agencydriven development factor in external sovereign emerging market debt and finds evidence for superior risk-adjusted returns from tilting towards female agency leaders.We propose the female agency factor as an additional scope in the modern investor’s toolbox of holistic credit assessment,allowing investors to isolate the issuers which are the most effective sovereign transmission mechanisms of sustainable development capital.This contribution to the corpus supports the notion of integrating sustainability factors into portfolio construction and reinforces the argument for supporting femaleled development from a financial markets’perspective.展开更多
The global economic crisis that blew up at the end of 2006 in the United States has had extremely negative impacts on the social, political, and economic fields. The countries operating in the most affected macro area...The global economic crisis that blew up at the end of 2006 in the United States has had extremely negative impacts on the social, political, and economic fields. The countries operating in the most affected macro areas---the United States and Europe---have put through the wringer the domestic trade relationships as well as the international ones, by injecting a chain reaction into the global economic scenario. However, there are countries that seem to be free from the economic and financial contagion overflowing over the past years, as they are moved by an ＂invincible projection toward the growth＂. The present study aims to analyze how much the main emerging market of China has been effectively involved in this vicious circle. More specifically, the study intends to propose an empirical analysis on the real connection between the macroecnnomic data and the strong structure of the Chinese publicly listed companies. This paper investigates the prediction of failure among 3,220 Chinese publicly traded companies （listed companies） during the global crisis period. By analysing the financial accounting data over the past seven years （2008 to 2014）, the emerging market score （EMS） has been adopted in order to investigate the impact of the crisis on financial distress in the main emerging market of China. The results confirm the following hypotheses： On one hand, the great majority of companies have not been suffering the downturn, since 71.93% of the entire samples present no risk of financial distress during the global crisis; on the other hand, only 6.18% have a reasonable risk of financial distress.展开更多
Against the backdrop of deepening globalization and digital integration,emerging international markets,characterized by large populations,rapidly growing educational demands,and progressively upgraded digital infrastr...Against the backdrop of deepening globalization and digital integration,emerging international markets,characterized by large populations,rapidly growing educational demands,and progressively upgraded digital infrastructure,have become pivotal hubs for educational technology(EdTech)enterprises to expand their global presence.However,the unique characteristics of these markets,including cultural diversity,divergent consumer behaviors,and uneven digital maturity,pose challenges to traditional digital marketing strategies.This results in EdTech products facing issues such as inefficient user acquisition,insufficient brand awareness,and suboptimal conversion rates.To address these challenges,this paper focuses on optimizing digital marketing strategies for EdTech product sales in emerging international markets.This paper focuses on the optimization of digital marketing strategies for Ed Tech product sales in emerging international markets.Through analyzing the pain points in the application of current strategies,this paper proposes a systematic optimization path from four dimensions:localized content construction,multi-channel coordination and integration,user life cycle operation,and data-driven decision making.展开更多
In this paper, we investigate if dividend policy is influenced by ownership type.Within the dividend literature, dividends have a signaling role regarding agency costs, such that dividends may diminish insider conflic...In this paper, we investigate if dividend policy is influenced by ownership type.Within the dividend literature, dividends have a signaling role regarding agency costs, such that dividends may diminish insider conflicts(reduce free cash flow) or may be used to extract cash from firms(tunneling effect)- which could be predominant in emerging markets. We expect firms with foreign ownership and those that are listed in overseas markets to have different dividend policies and practices than those that are not, and firms with more state ownership and less individual ownership to be more likely to pay cash dividends and less likely to pay stock dividends. Using firms from an emerging economy(China), we examine whether these effects exist in corporate dividend policy and practice. We find that both foreign ownership and cross-listing have significant negative effects on cash dividends, consistent with the signaling effect and the notion of reduced tunneling activities for firms with the ability to raise capital from outside of China. Consistent with the tunneling effect, we find that firms with higher state ownership tend to pay higher cash dividends and lower stock dividends, while the opposite is true for public(individual) ownership.Further analysis shows that foreign ownership mediates the effect of state ownership on dividend policy. Our results have significant implications for researchers, investors, policy makers and regulators in emerging markets.展开更多
There is a rapidly emerging and potentially huge market for the remediation of contaminated ground- water in China. The Chinese government published a Water Action Plan in April 2015, a Soil Action Plan in May 2016, a...There is a rapidly emerging and potentially huge market for the remediation of contaminated ground- water in China. The Chinese government published a Water Action Plan in April 2015, a Soil Action Plan in May 2016, and a draft Soil Pollution Prevention and Control Law in June 2017. All of these new policies and regulations put pressures on local governments and contaminated site owners, obliging them to conduct site investigation and to cleanup contaminated groundwater. The Chinese population in northern regions heavily depend on groundwater, with nearly 70% of water supply coming from aquifer sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. However, poor groundwater quality due to natural geochemical background and anthropogeic pollution is a serious concern, with poor or very poor quality water observed in nearly 80% of groundwater monitoring wells in 17 northern provinces. Shallow groundwater in many areas has been contaminated by toxic pollutants such as heavy metals and chlorinated organic compounds. There is an urgent need to better understand the situation and to conduct groundwater remediation at contaminated sites. The Chinese government is investing heavily in the research and development for groundwater remediation, which is expected to greatly add to the quality and quantity of groundwater remediation projects in the near future.展开更多
This study examines the effect of corporate ownership on information asymmetry as measured by bid-ask spread in the emerging markets of China. Government ownership has significant and positive impacts on bid-ask sprea...This study examines the effect of corporate ownership on information asymmetry as measured by bid-ask spread in the emerging markets of China. Government ownership has significant and positive impacts on bid-ask spread during the period 1995-2000, but disappears afterward during 2001-2003. The finding that state ownership raised bid-ask spread in the early period is consistent with recent studies on emerging markets including China, which indicate that firms with higher state ownership tend to have a greater deviation between cash flow rights and control rights(eg, Wei et al., 2005). This implies that lower state ownership is associated with lower information asymmetry in the market, an economic consequence of significant economic reform and privatization regarding the market microstructure. However, with more active control transfers andemergence of private controlling shareholders, regulatory changes in ownership structure and corporate governance mechanisms, and thus an improved legal and institutional environment, the link between the government ownership and information asymmetry turns to be insignificant in the later period. These results have important implications for transparency and information disclosure policies as well as privatization in emerging markets.展开更多
Ⅰ.IntroductionDuring the past two decades,many multinationalenterprises(MNEs)have made substantial investmentsin emerging markets.Two factors dominate thereasoning in favor of such an investment strategy:lowlabor cos...Ⅰ.IntroductionDuring the past two decades,many multinationalenterprises(MNEs)have made substantial investmentsin emerging markets.Two factors dominate thereasoning in favor of such an investment strategy:lowlabor costs and the large size of the markets in the hostcountries.While these two economic factors seem quite展开更多
Despite the extraordinarily high ownership concentration widely observed in emerging market firms as a result of institutional voids, there is little research on how this high ownership concentration affects the expor...Despite the extraordinarily high ownership concentration widely observed in emerging market firms as a result of institutional voids, there is little research on how this high ownership concentration affects the exporting behavior of emerging market firms. From principal-agent and institutional perspectives, we hypothesize that high ownership concentration has a negative relationship with export intensity, because, in emerging markets, highly concentrated ownership bridges the interests of owners （principals） and managers （agents） so that principals must be prudent in exploring risky international markets. Moreover, we hypothesize that export country diversification strengthens the relationship between ownership concentration and export intensity, because broad geographic dispersion increases risk exposure and principal-agent problems. Empirical analysis based on a panel dataset for publicly listed firms in Peru from 2005 to 2014 supports the hypotheses. The study highlights the risk aversion attitude activated by ownership concentration, an attitude that protects emerging market firms from overconfidently exploring international business opportunities. The study extends the conventional literature on the interface between ownership concentration and international business in an emerging market context. We also discuss the generalizability of the findings to other emerging markets, e.g. China.展开更多
：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The r...：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The results suggest that the mis-management in the economy and banking system, the shifts inthe international conditions and the depth of contagion effects are strongly associated with the presence ofcrises. Some of the results are somewhat different from the other empirical studies based on annual data. Acareful analysis of the probability distributions showed that the results were close to being correct in over90% of the cases.展开更多
In light of the increasing efforts made by emerging market firms to engage in international business through importing activities,identifying the characteristics that motivate importing busi ness and con tribute to it...In light of the increasing efforts made by emerging market firms to engage in international business through importing activities,identifying the characteristics that motivate importing busi ness and con tribute to its success is practically and theoretically meaningful.Drawing upon a knowledge-based view(KBV),we examine how the shareholder internationality affects a firm's importing activities.We hypothesize that the shareholder internationality can facilitate a firm's import initiati on and con tribute to the diversity of importing countries of origin.Moreover,the divergence of shareholders'nationality backgrounds may hinder import initiation,but motivate importing from dispersed countries of origin during the import development process.A longitudinal analysis of Colombian firms supports our hypotheses.展开更多
基金funded by the EU’s NextGenerationEU instrument through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan of Romania-Pillar Ⅲ-C9-I8,managed by the Ministry of Research,Innovation and Digitalization,within the project entitled,Non-Gaussian self-similar processes:Enhancing mathematical tools and financial models for capturing complex market dynamics”,contract no.760243/28.12.2023,code CF 194/31.07.2023’.
文摘One of the most notable developments in the asset management industry in recent decades has been the growth of algorithmic trading.At the same time,significant structural changes in the industry have occurred,with passive investing gaining momentum.The intersection of these two major trends poses special challenges during market downturns,magnifying portfolio losses and leading to significant outflows.Emerging market(EM)investors have seen two major downturn events in the 2020s,namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,both of which have strongly affected EM portfolios’risk-return profiles and increased their correlations with their developed market counterparts,eliminating much or all of EMs’diversification benefits.This has led to major capital outflows from EM countries,further destabilizing these fragile economies.Against this backdrop,we argue that capital need not exit these riskier markets during periods of turmoil and support this by developing a second-generation Automated Adaptive Trading System(AATS)back-tested on a relevant,diversified EM portfolio that tracks the Morgan Stanley Capital International(MSCI)Emerging Markets Index during a volatile period characterized by negative returns,high risk,and a high correlation with global markets for the buy-and-hold EM portfolio.The system incorporates an Autoregressive Moving Average-Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model that offers an interpretability advantage over machine-learning methods.The main strength of the AATS is its ability to allow the embedded hybrid forecasting model to adapt to the changing environments that characterize EMs.This is done by implementing a recursive window technique and running a user-specified fitness function to dynamically optimize the mean equation parameters throughout the lead time.Back-testing several configurations of the flexible AATS consistently reveals its superiority while assuring the robustness of the results.We conclude that with the right investment tools,EMs continue to offer compelling opportunities that should not be overlooked.The novel AATS proposed in this study is such a tool,providing active EM investors with substantial value-added through its ability to generate abnormal returns,and can help to enhance the resilience of EMs by mitigating the cost of crises for those countries.
文摘The Emerging Markets and Developing Countries Forum on Bridging the AI Divide and Opening Ceremony of AIM Global CoE were held on July 27 in Minhang district,Shanghai.The event was hosted by AIM Global CoE,and co-organized by Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Research Institute(SAIRI),Shanghai Technology Innovation Center,Shanghai Grand Neobay Investment Development Group,and Organizing Committee of AI Journey Conference.Asian Association of Business Incubation(AABI)and SAIRI served as the international partners.
文摘Cryptocurrency,a booming decentralised asset designed based on the blockchain architecture,is particularly important to the market at the present time by studying the volatility risk of cryptocurrencies.In this paper,we empirically analyse the volatility risk of cryptocurrencies through quantitative analysis models,comprehensively using the Markov state transition GARCH model with skewed distribution(Skew-MSGARCH)and the autoregressive conditional volatility density ARJI model introducing the Poisson jump factor,and selecting the earliest developed and the most mature currency price volatility daily return series,to deeply explore the volatility risk of digital cryptocurrencies.risk.Finally,it can be seen through in-depth analyses that the expectation factor and information inducement are the main reasons leading to the exacerbation of the volatility risk of digital cryptocurrencies.It is recommended that this situation be optimised and improved in terms of the value function of digital cryptocurrencies themselves and the implementation of systematic risk management and regulatory innovation.As an important component of the digital economy,blockchain technology can effectively regulate and improve the volatility of digital cryptocurrencies under macroeconomic policies,thereby maintaining the security and stability of emerging financial markets.
文摘This study explores correlations and risk spillovers,essential concepts for financial risk management,among commodities(crude oil,gold,and a global commodities index)and emerging stock markets.Using the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation–Conditional Value-at-Risk(ADCC-CoVaR)model and a bootstrapped Kolmogorov–Smirnov(KS)test,we analyze the period from December 30,2005,to February 28,2024,examining correlations,downside and upside risk spillovers,and highlighting the effects of major events such as the global financial crisis of 2008,the COVID-19 pandemic,and the Russia-Ukraine war.The results show heightened correlations during crises and significant risk spillovers across market pairs,with downside risks often outweighing upside risks.Gold displays minimal risk spillover,highlighting its unique role as a haven asset.We find that spillovers between gold,global commodities,and stocks increased during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,while those involving crude oil remained stable.These findings provide valuable guidance for portfolio managers in navigating volatile markets.
基金This research project was partially funded by the Strategic Public Policy Research Funding Scheme from the Central Policy Unit of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government,China(Project Number:S2016.A7.003).
文摘Peer-to-peer(P2P)lending has the potential to boost financial inclusion in emerging markets.This paper contributes to the literature on fintech governance in emerging Asian markets.It examines the case of the Indonesian government’s approach in regulating the P2P lending sector using both primary interviews and secondary firmlevel data.Driven by regulation tightening in China and regulatory gaps in Indonesia,Chinese investments became the largest in this sector contributing,however,to growing risks from illegal business practices.The Indonesian government responded by creating new regulations and institutions,mitigating risks without stifling the potential for financial inclusion.We conclude a proactive approach towards monitoring and regulating emerging high-tech industries should be sought by strengthening links with industry and civil society,and through international cooperation for policy and knowledge sharing.
文摘The obviously ever increasing number of corporate acquisitions in recent decades has improved the general knowledge and awareness of due diligence for both the industry and research. In the current challenging business environment, acquisitions face a higher degree of risk profiles, especially cross-border acquisitions in the emerging markets. Conducting a thorough due diligence investigation in the context of an acquisition is more important now than ever. In a broad analysis, this paper researches the key risk factors in the acquisition process and their assessment within a due diligence audit in the acquisition phase. The task of this paper is to match the academic and practical view in order to give a more complete understanding of risk factors to be covered in due diligence audit. The starting point is the research of academic findings which basically concentrate on common approaches considering financial, legal, commercial, and some other issues in domestic acquisitions and in developed countries. In contrast, this paper considers risk factors in cross-border and emerging markets transactions. In addition, a number of business consultants publish studies based on surveys on this topic which reflect typical risk factors based on experience of their customers being involved in cross-border acquisitions. Their risk assessment consists of specific regulatory, political, and other factors, which may lead to commercial and reputational impediments in cross-border acquisitions. The outcome of the comparison is a comprehended list of evaluated risk factors, whereby the academic findings are complemented and supported by the practical experience in the business consultant＇s studies. Moreover, the practical approach points to the fact that due diligence scope needs to be suited to the dynamics of the markets. The comparison and the comprehended list of evaluated risk factors call for a more integrated system of due diligence and show herein the research deficit. Hence, the novelty is the compendium of evaluated risk factors which should be assessed in the pre-acquisition phase. The originality of the paper is given by a unique analysis of academic work about acquisition due diligence literature and consultant studies from anonymized practical experience based on insider information.
文摘The underlying literature hypothesises and provides randomised evidence for the positive impact of promoting the broad-based inclusion,empowerment,and representation of women on regional ecosystems.This study seeks to isolate a female agencydriven development factor in external sovereign emerging market debt and finds evidence for superior risk-adjusted returns from tilting towards female agency leaders.We propose the female agency factor as an additional scope in the modern investor’s toolbox of holistic credit assessment,allowing investors to isolate the issuers which are the most effective sovereign transmission mechanisms of sustainable development capital.This contribution to the corpus supports the notion of integrating sustainability factors into portfolio construction and reinforces the argument for supporting femaleled development from a financial markets’perspective.
文摘The global economic crisis that blew up at the end of 2006 in the United States has had extremely negative impacts on the social, political, and economic fields. The countries operating in the most affected macro areas---the United States and Europe---have put through the wringer the domestic trade relationships as well as the international ones, by injecting a chain reaction into the global economic scenario. However, there are countries that seem to be free from the economic and financial contagion overflowing over the past years, as they are moved by an ＂invincible projection toward the growth＂. The present study aims to analyze how much the main emerging market of China has been effectively involved in this vicious circle. More specifically, the study intends to propose an empirical analysis on the real connection between the macroecnnomic data and the strong structure of the Chinese publicly listed companies. This paper investigates the prediction of failure among 3,220 Chinese publicly traded companies （listed companies） during the global crisis period. By analysing the financial accounting data over the past seven years （2008 to 2014）, the emerging market score （EMS） has been adopted in order to investigate the impact of the crisis on financial distress in the main emerging market of China. The results confirm the following hypotheses： On one hand, the great majority of companies have not been suffering the downturn, since 71.93% of the entire samples present no risk of financial distress during the global crisis; on the other hand, only 6.18% have a reasonable risk of financial distress.
文摘Against the backdrop of deepening globalization and digital integration,emerging international markets,characterized by large populations,rapidly growing educational demands,and progressively upgraded digital infrastructure,have become pivotal hubs for educational technology(EdTech)enterprises to expand their global presence.However,the unique characteristics of these markets,including cultural diversity,divergent consumer behaviors,and uneven digital maturity,pose challenges to traditional digital marketing strategies.This results in EdTech products facing issues such as inefficient user acquisition,insufficient brand awareness,and suboptimal conversion rates.To address these challenges,this paper focuses on optimizing digital marketing strategies for EdTech product sales in emerging international markets.This paper focuses on the optimization of digital marketing strategies for Ed Tech product sales in emerging international markets.Through analyzing the pain points in the application of current strategies,this paper proposes a systematic optimization path from four dimensions:localized content construction,multi-channel coordination and integration,user life cycle operation,and data-driven decision making.
文摘In this paper, we investigate if dividend policy is influenced by ownership type.Within the dividend literature, dividends have a signaling role regarding agency costs, such that dividends may diminish insider conflicts(reduce free cash flow) or may be used to extract cash from firms(tunneling effect)- which could be predominant in emerging markets. We expect firms with foreign ownership and those that are listed in overseas markets to have different dividend policies and practices than those that are not, and firms with more state ownership and less individual ownership to be more likely to pay cash dividends and less likely to pay stock dividends. Using firms from an emerging economy(China), we examine whether these effects exist in corporate dividend policy and practice. We find that both foreign ownership and cross-listing have significant negative effects on cash dividends, consistent with the signaling effect and the notion of reduced tunneling activities for firms with the ability to raise capital from outside of China. Consistent with the tunneling effect, we find that firms with higher state ownership tend to pay higher cash dividends and lower stock dividends, while the opposite is true for public(individual) ownership.Further analysis shows that foreign ownership mediates the effect of state ownership on dividend policy. Our results have significant implications for researchers, investors, policy makers and regulators in emerging markets.
文摘There is a rapidly emerging and potentially huge market for the remediation of contaminated ground- water in China. The Chinese government published a Water Action Plan in April 2015, a Soil Action Plan in May 2016, and a draft Soil Pollution Prevention and Control Law in June 2017. All of these new policies and regulations put pressures on local governments and contaminated site owners, obliging them to conduct site investigation and to cleanup contaminated groundwater. The Chinese population in northern regions heavily depend on groundwater, with nearly 70% of water supply coming from aquifer sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. However, poor groundwater quality due to natural geochemical background and anthropogeic pollution is a serious concern, with poor or very poor quality water observed in nearly 80% of groundwater monitoring wells in 17 northern provinces. Shallow groundwater in many areas has been contaminated by toxic pollutants such as heavy metals and chlorinated organic compounds. There is an urgent need to better understand the situation and to conduct groundwater remediation at contaminated sites. The Chinese government is investing heavily in the research and development for groundwater remediation, which is expected to greatly add to the quality and quantity of groundwater remediation projects in the near future.
文摘This study examines the effect of corporate ownership on information asymmetry as measured by bid-ask spread in the emerging markets of China. Government ownership has significant and positive impacts on bid-ask spread during the period 1995-2000, but disappears afterward during 2001-2003. The finding that state ownership raised bid-ask spread in the early period is consistent with recent studies on emerging markets including China, which indicate that firms with higher state ownership tend to have a greater deviation between cash flow rights and control rights(eg, Wei et al., 2005). This implies that lower state ownership is associated with lower information asymmetry in the market, an economic consequence of significant economic reform and privatization regarding the market microstructure. However, with more active control transfers andemergence of private controlling shareholders, regulatory changes in ownership structure and corporate governance mechanisms, and thus an improved legal and institutional environment, the link between the government ownership and information asymmetry turns to be insignificant in the later period. These results have important implications for transparency and information disclosure policies as well as privatization in emerging markets.
文摘Ⅰ.IntroductionDuring the past two decades,many multinationalenterprises(MNEs)have made substantial investmentsin emerging markets.Two factors dominate thereasoning in favor of such an investment strategy:lowlabor costs and the large size of the markets in the hostcountries.While these two economic factors seem quite
文摘Despite the extraordinarily high ownership concentration widely observed in emerging market firms as a result of institutional voids, there is little research on how this high ownership concentration affects the exporting behavior of emerging market firms. From principal-agent and institutional perspectives, we hypothesize that high ownership concentration has a negative relationship with export intensity, because, in emerging markets, highly concentrated ownership bridges the interests of owners （principals） and managers （agents） so that principals must be prudent in exploring risky international markets. Moreover, we hypothesize that export country diversification strengthens the relationship between ownership concentration and export intensity, because broad geographic dispersion increases risk exposure and principal-agent problems. Empirical analysis based on a panel dataset for publicly listed firms in Peru from 2005 to 2014 supports the hypotheses. The study highlights the risk aversion attitude activated by ownership concentration, an attitude that protects emerging market firms from overconfidently exploring international business opportunities. The study extends the conventional literature on the interface between ownership concentration and international business in an emerging market context. We also discuss the generalizability of the findings to other emerging markets, e.g. China.
基金We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [69874 0 0 4 ]
文摘：This paper examines the relative strength of factors in predicting the onset of a financial crisis inthe emerging market during the 1990s. We estimate a probit model based on the quarterly data of 18countries. The results suggest that the mis-management in the economy and banking system, the shifts inthe international conditions and the depth of contagion effects are strongly associated with the presence ofcrises. Some of the results are somewhat different from the other empirical studies based on annual data. Acareful analysis of the probability distributions showed that the results were close to being correct in over90% of the cases.
文摘In light of the increasing efforts made by emerging market firms to engage in international business through importing activities,identifying the characteristics that motivate importing busi ness and con tribute to its success is practically and theoretically meaningful.Drawing upon a knowledge-based view(KBV),we examine how the shareholder internationality affects a firm's importing activities.We hypothesize that the shareholder internationality can facilitate a firm's import initiati on and con tribute to the diversity of importing countries of origin.Moreover,the divergence of shareholders'nationality backgrounds may hinder import initiation,but motivate importing from dispersed countries of origin during the import development process.A longitudinal analysis of Colombian firms supports our hypotheses.
