The petroleum geological features of hydrocarbon source rocks in the Oriente Basin in Ecuador are studied in detail to determine the potential of shale gas resources in the basin. The favorable shale gas layer in the ...The petroleum geological features of hydrocarbon source rocks in the Oriente Basin in Ecuador are studied in detail to determine the potential of shale gas resources in the basin. The favorable shale gas layer in the vertical direction is optimized by combining logging identification and comprehensive geological analysis. The thickness in this layer is obtained by logging interpretation in the basin. The favorable shale gas accumulation area is selected by referring to thickness and depth data. Furthermore, the shale gas resource amount of the layer in the favorable area is calculated using the analogy method. Results show that among the five potential hydrocarbon source rocks, the lower Napo Formation is the most likely shale gas layer. The west and northwest zones, which are in the deep-sea slope and shelf sedimentary environments, respectively, are the favorable areas for shale gas accumulation. The favorable sedimentary environment formed thick black shale that is rich in organic matter. The black shale generated hydrocarbon, which migrated laterally to the eastern shallow water shelf to form numerous oil fields. The result of the shale gas resource in the two favorable areas,as calculated by the analogy method, is 55,500×10;m;. This finding shows the high exploration and development potential of shale gas in the basin.展开更多
Recent biodiversity research in the Western Amazon has emphasized the linkages among road construction, deforestation and loss of indigenous lands. Many observers have concluded that hydrocarbon production inevitably ...Recent biodiversity research in the Western Amazon has emphasized the linkages among road construction, deforestation and loss of indigenous lands. Many observers have concluded that hydrocarbon production inevitably means destruction of forests and expropriation of native territory. Yet evidence from the eastern lowlands of Ecuador (known as the Oriente) shows that oil can be developed without roads or harmful impacts. The Oriente also provides another contrasting case: in areas where no oil was discovered, the government often built roads to support its agricultural colonization efforts. In these areas, a great deal of deforestation and indigenous displacement occurred. Such evidence suggests that a different set of agrarian and environmental policies might permit oil activity without loss of rain forest or indigenous territory.展开更多
Leptodactylus labrosus is a terrestrial sit-and-wait predator; its diet includes ground-level, fossorial, and flying insects, and ants numerically predominate. Bothrops asper is recorded as a predator of L. labrosus. ...Leptodactylus labrosus is a terrestrial sit-and-wait predator; its diet includes ground-level, fossorial, and flying insects, and ants numerically predominate. Bothrops asper is recorded as a predator of L. labrosus. L. labrosus lives mainly in deciduous and semi-deciduous forests, where it is restricted to wet microhabitats, and occasionally in evergreen forests. L. labrosus inhabits northern, central, and southern regions of western coastal Ecuador and northern and central western coastal Peru up to 700 m, and into the dry interandean valleys of southern Ecuador and northern Peru up to 1 300 m. Its distribution encompasses moistly seasonally dry forest in coastal Ecuador and Peru. It also occupies moister areas towards the slopes of the Andes where it is sympatric with three other congeneric species, but at sites of sympatry the species show habitat segregation. The distribution pattern of L. labrosus is shared by several other range-restricted am- phibians corresponding to the Tumbesian region, which should be recognized as an endemic Amphibian area. The zone between the Choco and Tumbesian regions, where L. labrosus gets in sympatry with other Leptodactylus species, possess ecological and climatic characteristics that have shaped a unique fauna, including several endemic taxa; and it should be recognized as the west Ecuadorian endemic region.展开更多
This white paper discusses the Ecuadorian healthcare system specifically the lack of proper anesthesia and post-operative pain medication and touches base with centralized hospitals. This paper articulates the specifi...This white paper discusses the Ecuadorian healthcare system specifically the lack of proper anesthesia and post-operative pain medication and touches base with centralized hospitals. This paper articulates the specific problems inhibiting the usage of these proper medications, specifically looking at a hospital in Quito, Ecuador. Present day tribal situations are also discussed as they are a significant part of the population that is affected by the shortages of pain medication and anesthesia. Solutions are presented to solve the problems the country faces and how it is relevant today.展开更多
Gravimetric and geologic data show that the reactivation of the Neogene Interandean depression and/or the ~75 - 65 Ma ophiolite suture into the modern dynamic of the Andes controlled the Gulf of Guayaquil Tumbes basin...Gravimetric and geologic data show that the reactivation of the Neogene Interandean depression and/or the ~75 - 65 Ma ophiolite suture into the modern dynamic of the Andes controlled the Gulf of Guayaquil Tumbes basin (GGTB) location and evolution during the past 1.8 - 1.6 Myr at least. Depending on whether the remobilization occurred along the interandean depression or the ophiolite suture, the GGTB evolved trough pure or simple shear mechanisms, respectively. Because the GGTB exhibits an along strike tectonic asymmetry associated with a pervasive seismic gap, the simple shear solution is more likely. Tectonic inversion occurred along a mid-crust detachment (the Mid-Crust detachment hereafter) matching the ophiolite suture that accommodates the North Andean Block (NAB) northward drift. The so-called Decoupling Strip located at the shelf slope break accommodated the tensional stress rotation from N-S along the shelf area i.e. NAB-drift induced to E-W along the continental margin i.e. subduction-erosion-induced. The landward dipping Woollard detachment system located at the Upper-Lower slope boundary connects the subduction channel at depth, allowing the Upper slope to evolve independently from the Lower slope wedge. The long-term recurrence interval between earthquakes, the strong interplate coupling, and the aseismic creeping deformation acting along the main low-angle detachments i.e. the Woollard and the Mid-Crust detachments may account for the pervasive seismic gap at the GGTB area. Because the subduction channel exhibits no record of significant seismic activity, no evidence exists to establish a link between the GGTB sustained subsidence and a basin-centered asperity. Because the GGTB is a promising site of hydrocarbon resources, to understand processes at the origin of this escape-induced forearc basin has a major economic interest.展开更多
In the horrific conflict of 1914-1918 known as World War I, Latin American nations were peripheral players but they were not immune from its effects. This essay reviews the conflict＇s impact on Ecuador--a Latin Ameri...In the horrific conflict of 1914-1918 known as World War I, Latin American nations were peripheral players but they were not immune from its effects. This essay reviews the conflict＇s impact on Ecuador--a Latin American nation that after declaring neutrality in 1914, broke relations with Germany on December 7, 1917 but refrained from any involvement in the actual fighting. Following a brief review of the existing historiography of this period, the study examines Ecuador＇s geographic, political, economic and social situation in 1914; its involvement in the war as a neutral between 1914 and April 6, 1917; and the developments that occurred after its decision to break relations with Germany in December 1917 until the armistice on November 11, 1918. Finally it suggests how the consequences of Ecuador＇s stance in the months after the restoration of peace contributed to the end of the Liberal Era in 1924.展开更多
The mechanism of “Bing-Bang-Channeling-Cut” was proposed to reduce the volcanic energy (“Bing”) from the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) for the mitigation of Ecuadorian earthquake impact (“Bang”). The lag time between...The mechanism of “Bing-Bang-Channeling-Cut” was proposed to reduce the volcanic energy (“Bing”) from the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) for the mitigation of Ecuadorian earthquake impact (“Bang”). The lag time between the volcanic eruptions in the GHS and Ecuadorian earthquake was probably caused by the undersea seamounts of the Carnegie Ridge (CAR) (“Channeling”). Experimental results from the water reservoir showed that the lag time decreased when increasing the number of drilled holes (“Cut”) in the bottom of reservoir. The present study showed that there was an additional vector initiating the Ecuadorian earthquake from the volcanic eruption in the GHS through the CAR. It was concluded that the harmful effects of Ecuadorian earthquakes could be mitigated by releasing the volcanic energy through the enlarged exit diameters in Holes of Site 1239 (A, B, C) with the presently productive upwelling chlorophyll system at the northeastern CAR.展开更多
Zika is an infectious disease that emerged as an epidemic in Latin America in 2015 and arrived in Ecuador at the start of 2016.This research analyzes the coverage that two national Ecuadorian newspapers gave to this s...Zika is an infectious disease that emerged as an epidemic in Latin America in 2015 and arrived in Ecuador at the start of 2016.This research analyzes the coverage that two national Ecuadorian newspapers gave to this sanitary emergency.Journals El Telégrafo and El Universo,the first one of government domain and the other one of a private company,were chosen to be studied,and interviews with journalists who reported before,during and after the epidemic,were conducted.The results showed that:In most news articles,a single source is handled,preferably the official or institutional one;that the majority of articles were about the international situation rather than local or national information;that alarm content is privileged over the preventive;and finally that the earthquake that hit the Ecuadorian coast in April 2016 weakened the coverage of Zika,even though the epidemic was at its outbreak at the time in the country.There is a need for journalists to be trained to cover these types of emergencies in order to better inform the people and follow up diseases cycles in order to arrange their own news agenda and work more on solution approaches.展开更多
Renal abscess and nephronia are uncommon diseases in children and with unknown global prevalence. Nephronia represents an intermediate state between pyelonephritis and renal abscess. Prompt diagnosis is important to p...Renal abscess and nephronia are uncommon diseases in children and with unknown global prevalence. Nephronia represents an intermediate state between pyelonephritis and renal abscess. Prompt diagnosis is important to prevent morbidity and mortality (sepsis, renal injury, death). Scientific advances have made these entities more evident, although they may still be underdiagnosed. Patients with this disease require prolonged intravenous antibiotic therapy and potentially surgical resolution, mostly when their size is bigger than 3 - 5 cm when therapy with intravenous antibiotics alone fails and they are accessible to percutaneous drainage. We describe five cases of pediatric patients from four private hospitals in Quito, Ecuador followed during a one-year period. In every case, the diagnosis was suspected mostly because of persistent fever, abdominal pain, severe leukocytosis and/or elevated inflammation biomarkers. Only one of them had a previous history of urinary tract malformation while in another one malformation was revealed in his actual admission. Every case had microbiologic isolation. All of them recovered successfully. To our knowledge, in our country, there are no previous reports of these diseases in pediatric patients, and worldwide, there is scarce data. Our aim is to alert doctors who work with children to be aware of this condition.展开更多
Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim...Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.展开更多
The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for produ...The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador.This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective,with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study.In general,the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model,which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers.Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated,which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method.The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant,and under some of the simulated scenarios,based on the official information with respect to earthquake management,the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.展开更多
The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic.During 2009,H1N1 In...The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic.During 2009,H1N1 Influenza pandemic,statistical and mathematical methods were used to track how the virus spreads around countries.Most of these models that were developed at the beginning of the XXI century are based on the classical susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)model developed almost a hundred years ago.The evolution of this model allows us to forecast and compute basic and effective reproduction numbers(R_(t) and R_(0)),measures that quantify the epidemic potential of a pathogen and estimates different scenarios.In this study,we present a traditional estimation technique for R_(0) with statistical distributions by best fitting and a Bayesian approach based on continuous feed of prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions and computing real time R_(t).We use data from COVID-19 officially reported cases in Ecuador since the first confirmed case on February 29th.Because of the lack of data,in the case of R_(0) we compare two methods for the estimation of these parameters below exponential growth and maximum likelihood estimation.We do not make any assumption about the evolution of cases due to limited information and we use previous methods to compare scenarios about R_(0) and in the case of R_(t) we used Bayesian inference to model uncertainty in contagious proposing a new modification to the well-known model of Bettencourt and Ribeiro based on a time window of m days to improve estimations.Ecuadorian R_(0) with exponential growth criteria was 3.45 and with the maximum likelihood estimation method was 2.93.The results show that Guayas,Pichincha and Manabíwere the provinces with the highest number of cases due to COVID-19.Some reasons explain the increased transmissibility in these localities:massive events,population density,cities dispersion patterns,and the delayed time of public health actions to contain pandemic.In conclusion,this is a novel approach that allow us to measure infection dynamics and outbreak distribution when not enough detailed data is available.The use of this model can be used to predict pandemic distribution and to implement data-based effective measures.展开更多
文摘The petroleum geological features of hydrocarbon source rocks in the Oriente Basin in Ecuador are studied in detail to determine the potential of shale gas resources in the basin. The favorable shale gas layer in the vertical direction is optimized by combining logging identification and comprehensive geological analysis. The thickness in this layer is obtained by logging interpretation in the basin. The favorable shale gas accumulation area is selected by referring to thickness and depth data. Furthermore, the shale gas resource amount of the layer in the favorable area is calculated using the analogy method. Results show that among the five potential hydrocarbon source rocks, the lower Napo Formation is the most likely shale gas layer. The west and northwest zones, which are in the deep-sea slope and shelf sedimentary environments, respectively, are the favorable areas for shale gas accumulation. The favorable sedimentary environment formed thick black shale that is rich in organic matter. The black shale generated hydrocarbon, which migrated laterally to the eastern shallow water shelf to form numerous oil fields. The result of the shale gas resource in the two favorable areas,as calculated by the analogy method, is 55,500×10;m;. This finding shows the high exploration and development potential of shale gas in the basin.
文摘Recent biodiversity research in the Western Amazon has emphasized the linkages among road construction, deforestation and loss of indigenous lands. Many observers have concluded that hydrocarbon production inevitably means destruction of forests and expropriation of native territory. Yet evidence from the eastern lowlands of Ecuador (known as the Oriente) shows that oil can be developed without roads or harmful impacts. The Oriente also provides another contrasting case: in areas where no oil was discovered, the government often built roads to support its agricultural colonization efforts. In these areas, a great deal of deforestation and indigenous displacement occurred. Such evidence suggests that a different set of agrarian and environmental policies might permit oil activity without loss of rain forest or indigenous territory.
文摘Leptodactylus labrosus is a terrestrial sit-and-wait predator; its diet includes ground-level, fossorial, and flying insects, and ants numerically predominate. Bothrops asper is recorded as a predator of L. labrosus. L. labrosus lives mainly in deciduous and semi-deciduous forests, where it is restricted to wet microhabitats, and occasionally in evergreen forests. L. labrosus inhabits northern, central, and southern regions of western coastal Ecuador and northern and central western coastal Peru up to 700 m, and into the dry interandean valleys of southern Ecuador and northern Peru up to 1 300 m. Its distribution encompasses moistly seasonally dry forest in coastal Ecuador and Peru. It also occupies moister areas towards the slopes of the Andes where it is sympatric with three other congeneric species, but at sites of sympatry the species show habitat segregation. The distribution pattern of L. labrosus is shared by several other range-restricted am- phibians corresponding to the Tumbesian region, which should be recognized as an endemic Amphibian area. The zone between the Choco and Tumbesian regions, where L. labrosus gets in sympatry with other Leptodactylus species, possess ecological and climatic characteristics that have shaped a unique fauna, including several endemic taxa; and it should be recognized as the west Ecuadorian endemic region.
文摘This white paper discusses the Ecuadorian healthcare system specifically the lack of proper anesthesia and post-operative pain medication and touches base with centralized hospitals. This paper articulates the specific problems inhibiting the usage of these proper medications, specifically looking at a hospital in Quito, Ecuador. Present day tribal situations are also discussed as they are a significant part of the population that is affected by the shortages of pain medication and anesthesia. Solutions are presented to solve the problems the country faces and how it is relevant today.
文摘Gravimetric and geologic data show that the reactivation of the Neogene Interandean depression and/or the ~75 - 65 Ma ophiolite suture into the modern dynamic of the Andes controlled the Gulf of Guayaquil Tumbes basin (GGTB) location and evolution during the past 1.8 - 1.6 Myr at least. Depending on whether the remobilization occurred along the interandean depression or the ophiolite suture, the GGTB evolved trough pure or simple shear mechanisms, respectively. Because the GGTB exhibits an along strike tectonic asymmetry associated with a pervasive seismic gap, the simple shear solution is more likely. Tectonic inversion occurred along a mid-crust detachment (the Mid-Crust detachment hereafter) matching the ophiolite suture that accommodates the North Andean Block (NAB) northward drift. The so-called Decoupling Strip located at the shelf slope break accommodated the tensional stress rotation from N-S along the shelf area i.e. NAB-drift induced to E-W along the continental margin i.e. subduction-erosion-induced. The landward dipping Woollard detachment system located at the Upper-Lower slope boundary connects the subduction channel at depth, allowing the Upper slope to evolve independently from the Lower slope wedge. The long-term recurrence interval between earthquakes, the strong interplate coupling, and the aseismic creeping deformation acting along the main low-angle detachments i.e. the Woollard and the Mid-Crust detachments may account for the pervasive seismic gap at the GGTB area. Because the subduction channel exhibits no record of significant seismic activity, no evidence exists to establish a link between the GGTB sustained subsidence and a basin-centered asperity. Because the GGTB is a promising site of hydrocarbon resources, to understand processes at the origin of this escape-induced forearc basin has a major economic interest.
文摘In the horrific conflict of 1914-1918 known as World War I, Latin American nations were peripheral players but they were not immune from its effects. This essay reviews the conflict＇s impact on Ecuador--a Latin American nation that after declaring neutrality in 1914, broke relations with Germany on December 7, 1917 but refrained from any involvement in the actual fighting. Following a brief review of the existing historiography of this period, the study examines Ecuador＇s geographic, political, economic and social situation in 1914; its involvement in the war as a neutral between 1914 and April 6, 1917; and the developments that occurred after its decision to break relations with Germany in December 1917 until the armistice on November 11, 1918. Finally it suggests how the consequences of Ecuador＇s stance in the months after the restoration of peace contributed to the end of the Liberal Era in 1924.
文摘The mechanism of “Bing-Bang-Channeling-Cut” was proposed to reduce the volcanic energy (“Bing”) from the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) for the mitigation of Ecuadorian earthquake impact (“Bang”). The lag time between the volcanic eruptions in the GHS and Ecuadorian earthquake was probably caused by the undersea seamounts of the Carnegie Ridge (CAR) (“Channeling”). Experimental results from the water reservoir showed that the lag time decreased when increasing the number of drilled holes (“Cut”) in the bottom of reservoir. The present study showed that there was an additional vector initiating the Ecuadorian earthquake from the volcanic eruption in the GHS through the CAR. It was concluded that the harmful effects of Ecuadorian earthquakes could be mitigated by releasing the volcanic energy through the enlarged exit diameters in Holes of Site 1239 (A, B, C) with the presently productive upwelling chlorophyll system at the northeastern CAR.
文摘Zika is an infectious disease that emerged as an epidemic in Latin America in 2015 and arrived in Ecuador at the start of 2016.This research analyzes the coverage that two national Ecuadorian newspapers gave to this sanitary emergency.Journals El Telégrafo and El Universo,the first one of government domain and the other one of a private company,were chosen to be studied,and interviews with journalists who reported before,during and after the epidemic,were conducted.The results showed that:In most news articles,a single source is handled,preferably the official or institutional one;that the majority of articles were about the international situation rather than local or national information;that alarm content is privileged over the preventive;and finally that the earthquake that hit the Ecuadorian coast in April 2016 weakened the coverage of Zika,even though the epidemic was at its outbreak at the time in the country.There is a need for journalists to be trained to cover these types of emergencies in order to better inform the people and follow up diseases cycles in order to arrange their own news agenda and work more on solution approaches.
文摘Renal abscess and nephronia are uncommon diseases in children and with unknown global prevalence. Nephronia represents an intermediate state between pyelonephritis and renal abscess. Prompt diagnosis is important to prevent morbidity and mortality (sepsis, renal injury, death). Scientific advances have made these entities more evident, although they may still be underdiagnosed. Patients with this disease require prolonged intravenous antibiotic therapy and potentially surgical resolution, mostly when their size is bigger than 3 - 5 cm when therapy with intravenous antibiotics alone fails and they are accessible to percutaneous drainage. We describe five cases of pediatric patients from four private hospitals in Quito, Ecuador followed during a one-year period. In every case, the diagnosis was suspected mostly because of persistent fever, abdominal pain, severe leukocytosis and/or elevated inflammation biomarkers. Only one of them had a previous history of urinary tract malformation while in another one malformation was revealed in his actual admission. Every case had microbiologic isolation. All of them recovered successfully. To our knowledge, in our country, there are no previous reports of these diseases in pediatric patients, and worldwide, there is scarce data. Our aim is to alert doctors who work with children to be aware of this condition.
文摘Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.
文摘The 16 April 2016 earthquake in Ecuador exposed the significant weaknesses concerning the methodological designs to compute—from an economic standpoint—the consequences of a natural hazard-related disaster for productive exchanges and the accumulation of capital in Ecuador.This study addressed one of these challenges with an innovative ex ante model to measure the partial and net short-term effects of a natural hazard-related catastrophe from an interregional perspective,with the 16 April 2016 earthquake serving as a case study.In general,the specified and estimated model follows the approach of the extended Miyazawa model,which endogenizes consumption demand in a standard input–output model with the subnational interrelations and resulting multipliers.Due to the country’s limitations in its regional account records the input–output matrices for each province of Ecuador had to be estimated,which then allowed transactions carried out between any two sectors within or outside a given province to be identified by means of the RAS method.The estimations provide evidence that the net short-term impact on the national accounts was not significant,and under some of the simulated scenarios,based on the official information with respect to earthquake management,the impact may even have had a positive effect on the growth of the national product during 2016.
基金The author(s)disclosed receipt the financial support for the research and publication of this article from Universidad de Las Americas through their annual general research projects funds.
文摘The growth of COVID-19 pandemic throughout more than 213 countries around the world have put a lot of pressures on governments and health services to try to stop the rapid expansion of the pandemic.During 2009,H1N1 Influenza pandemic,statistical and mathematical methods were used to track how the virus spreads around countries.Most of these models that were developed at the beginning of the XXI century are based on the classical susceptible-infected-recovered(SIR)model developed almost a hundred years ago.The evolution of this model allows us to forecast and compute basic and effective reproduction numbers(R_(t) and R_(0)),measures that quantify the epidemic potential of a pathogen and estimates different scenarios.In this study,we present a traditional estimation technique for R_(0) with statistical distributions by best fitting and a Bayesian approach based on continuous feed of prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions and computing real time R_(t).We use data from COVID-19 officially reported cases in Ecuador since the first confirmed case on February 29th.Because of the lack of data,in the case of R_(0) we compare two methods for the estimation of these parameters below exponential growth and maximum likelihood estimation.We do not make any assumption about the evolution of cases due to limited information and we use previous methods to compare scenarios about R_(0) and in the case of R_(t) we used Bayesian inference to model uncertainty in contagious proposing a new modification to the well-known model of Bettencourt and Ribeiro based on a time window of m days to improve estimations.Ecuadorian R_(0) with exponential growth criteria was 3.45 and with the maximum likelihood estimation method was 2.93.The results show that Guayas,Pichincha and Manabíwere the provinces with the highest number of cases due to COVID-19.Some reasons explain the increased transmissibility in these localities:massive events,population density,cities dispersion patterns,and the delayed time of public health actions to contain pandemic.In conclusion,this is a novel approach that allow us to measure infection dynamics and outbreak distribution when not enough detailed data is available.The use of this model can be used to predict pandemic distribution and to implement data-based effective measures.
