Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment...Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. The exposure to future climate was characterized using a moisture index(MI) that integrates the effects of temperature and precipitation. Vegetation stability, defined as the proportion of intact natural vegetation that remains unchanged under changing climate, was used together with vegetation productivity trend to represent the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems. Using this method, we evaluated the vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China under two future representative concentration pathways(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model.Results:(1) Future(2017–2100) climate change will leave 7.4%(under RCP 4.5) and 57.4% of(under RCP 8.5) of areas under high or very high vulnerable climate exposure;(2) in terms of vegetation stability, nearly 45% of the study area will show high or very high vulnerability under both RCPs. Beside the impacts of human disturbance on natural vegetation coverage(vegetation intactness), climate change will cause obvious latitudinal movements in vegetation distribution, but the direction of movements under two RCPs were opposite due to the difference in water availability;(3) vegetation productivity in most areas will generally increase and remain a low vulnerability in the future;(4) an assessment based on the above three aspects together indicated that future climate change will generally have an adverse impact on all ecosystems in Southwestern China, with non-vulnerable areas account for only about 3% of the study area under both RCPs. However, compared with RCP 4.5, the areas with mid-and highvulnerability under RCP 8.5 scenario increased by 13% and 16%, respectively.Conclusion: Analyses of future climate exposure and projected vegetation distribution indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China, while vegetation productivity in most areas will show an increasing trend to the end of twenty-first century. Based on new climate indicators and improved vulnerability assessment rules, our method provides an extra option for a more comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem vulnerability, and should be further tested at larger spatial scales in order to provide references for regional, or even global, ecosystem conservation works.展开更多
The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from t...The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from the endogenous logic of studies in the field of ecosystem vulnerability(EV), this paper sorts out the literature on the aspects of measurement models, prediction methods and risk assessment, comprehensively defines the research category and scientific framework of EV, and analyzes the research ideas and development trends. We arrived at the following conclusions: 1) The connotation of ecosystem vulnerability not only embodies the change in the vulnerability of the natural environment, but it also reflects the irreversible damage to the ecosystem caused by excessive development and industrial production activities. 2) The setting of ecosystem vulnerability indices should aim to fully reflect the essential features of that vulnerability, which should include the index systems of natural, social, economic and other related factors. 3) There are many types of ecosystem vulnerability measurement methods, prediction models and risk evaluation models, which have different focuses and advantages. The most appropriate method should be adopted for conducting comprehensive and systematic evaluation, prediction and estimation according to the different representation and evolution mechanisms of the chosen research object and regional ecosystem vulnerability. 4) Based on the regional system characteristics, corresponding risk management measures should be proposed, and pertinent policy suggestions should be put forward to improve the ecological safety and sustainable development of an ecologically vulnerable area.展开更多
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment（VA） tools for forest ecosystems and forest-dependent communities are important for making decisions and understanding the impact of climate change on both social and natural s...Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment（VA） tools for forest ecosystems and forest-dependent communities are important for making decisions and understanding the impact of climate change on both social and natural systems.However,the tools are poorly coordinated,making it difficult for policymakers to carry out VAs properly.The aim of this study was to analyze VA literature worldwide to find representative case studies in terms of methods and tools applied and which have been successful in performing VAs on forests and forest-dependent communities.All successful VA studies analyzed had common characteristics such as significant funding,data availability and technical capacity.An additional characteristic was the development of an integrated approach that considered the vulnerability of both ecosystems and communities by combining qualitative and quantitative methods.Community members and relevant stakeholders were significantly involved in a participatory process that concluded with the identification of adaptation measures.The case studies also revealed how policymakers need to choose suitable methods and tools to undertake efficient assessment of vulnerabilities.They need to consider several aspects of the VA process such as subject matter,availability of resources,time and scale.展开更多
Keita region is largely dependent on agriculture and livestock as the main economic activities with about 90% of the population are actively engaged in rural activities. However, these activities are dwindling at a ra...Keita region is largely dependent on agriculture and livestock as the main economic activities with about 90% of the population are actively engaged in rural activities. However, these activities are dwindling at a rate that corresponds with increase in the ecosystem’s vulnerability. The following study focused on land use/land cover change in Keita. The study aims to better understand changes through diachronic analysis by integrating remote sensing and GIS. There was an interpretation of satellites imagery (1975, 1984, 1995 and 2001), and statistical techniques were used to provide quantitative analysis of land use/cover change information and drivers underlying in the study area. The changes are affected by simultaneous influence of successive droughts (1973-1974 and 1983-1984) that have transformed ecological balance, anthropogenic and livestock impacts, ecosystems degradation and policies. The land use temporal dynamics are undergone continual degradation of vegetation, the state of land saturation results in conflicts between farmer and herders, the drop in grazing areas, bare land expansion, the erosion of stream bed, and the decline in flooded plain.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0502104,No. 2017YFC0503901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31870430)。
文摘Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. The exposure to future climate was characterized using a moisture index(MI) that integrates the effects of temperature and precipitation. Vegetation stability, defined as the proportion of intact natural vegetation that remains unchanged under changing climate, was used together with vegetation productivity trend to represent the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems. Using this method, we evaluated the vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China under two future representative concentration pathways(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model.Results:(1) Future(2017–2100) climate change will leave 7.4%(under RCP 4.5) and 57.4% of(under RCP 8.5) of areas under high or very high vulnerable climate exposure;(2) in terms of vegetation stability, nearly 45% of the study area will show high or very high vulnerability under both RCPs. Beside the impacts of human disturbance on natural vegetation coverage(vegetation intactness), climate change will cause obvious latitudinal movements in vegetation distribution, but the direction of movements under two RCPs were opposite due to the difference in water availability;(3) vegetation productivity in most areas will generally increase and remain a low vulnerability in the future;(4) an assessment based on the above three aspects together indicated that future climate change will generally have an adverse impact on all ecosystems in Southwestern China, with non-vulnerable areas account for only about 3% of the study area under both RCPs. However, compared with RCP 4.5, the areas with mid-and highvulnerability under RCP 8.5 scenario increased by 13% and 16%, respectively.Conclusion: Analyses of future climate exposure and projected vegetation distribution indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China, while vegetation productivity in most areas will show an increasing trend to the end of twenty-first century. Based on new climate indicators and improved vulnerability assessment rules, our method provides an extra option for a more comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem vulnerability, and should be further tested at larger spatial scales in order to provide references for regional, or even global, ecosystem conservation works.
基金The National Social Science Fundation of China (17XJY020)The National Natural Science Foundation of China (71963028)The Discipline Construction Project for Ningxia Institutions of Higher Education (Discipline of Theoretical Economics)(NXYLXK2017B04)。
文摘The fragility of ecosystem health has become a key factor hindering the sustainable development of the ecological environment. Through a review of published research from domestic and foreign scholars, starting from the endogenous logic of studies in the field of ecosystem vulnerability(EV), this paper sorts out the literature on the aspects of measurement models, prediction methods and risk assessment, comprehensively defines the research category and scientific framework of EV, and analyzes the research ideas and development trends. We arrived at the following conclusions: 1) The connotation of ecosystem vulnerability not only embodies the change in the vulnerability of the natural environment, but it also reflects the irreversible damage to the ecosystem caused by excessive development and industrial production activities. 2) The setting of ecosystem vulnerability indices should aim to fully reflect the essential features of that vulnerability, which should include the index systems of natural, social, economic and other related factors. 3) There are many types of ecosystem vulnerability measurement methods, prediction models and risk evaluation models, which have different focuses and advantages. The most appropriate method should be adopted for conducting comprehensive and systematic evaluation, prediction and estimation according to the different representation and evolution mechanisms of the chosen research object and regional ecosystem vulnerability. 4) Based on the regional system characteristics, corresponding risk management measures should be proposed, and pertinent policy suggestions should be put forward to improve the ecological safety and sustainable development of an ecologically vulnerable area.
基金the FAO Forestry Department for the opportunity to conduct the research and for their support
文摘Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment（VA） tools for forest ecosystems and forest-dependent communities are important for making decisions and understanding the impact of climate change on both social and natural systems.However,the tools are poorly coordinated,making it difficult for policymakers to carry out VAs properly.The aim of this study was to analyze VA literature worldwide to find representative case studies in terms of methods and tools applied and which have been successful in performing VAs on forests and forest-dependent communities.All successful VA studies analyzed had common characteristics such as significant funding,data availability and technical capacity.An additional characteristic was the development of an integrated approach that considered the vulnerability of both ecosystems and communities by combining qualitative and quantitative methods.Community members and relevant stakeholders were significantly involved in a participatory process that concluded with the identification of adaptation measures.The case studies also revealed how policymakers need to choose suitable methods and tools to undertake efficient assessment of vulnerabilities.They need to consider several aspects of the VA process such as subject matter,availability of resources,time and scale.
文摘Keita region is largely dependent on agriculture and livestock as the main economic activities with about 90% of the population are actively engaged in rural activities. However, these activities are dwindling at a rate that corresponds with increase in the ecosystem’s vulnerability. The following study focused on land use/land cover change in Keita. The study aims to better understand changes through diachronic analysis by integrating remote sensing and GIS. There was an interpretation of satellites imagery (1975, 1984, 1995 and 2001), and statistical techniques were used to provide quantitative analysis of land use/cover change information and drivers underlying in the study area. The changes are affected by simultaneous influence of successive droughts (1973-1974 and 1983-1984) that have transformed ecological balance, anthropogenic and livestock impacts, ecosystems degradation and policies. The land use temporal dynamics are undergone continual degradation of vegetation, the state of land saturation results in conflicts between farmer and herders, the drop in grazing areas, bare land expansion, the erosion of stream bed, and the decline in flooded plain.
