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Evaluation of oasis ecosystem risk by reliability theory in an arid area: A case study in the Shiyang River Basin, China 被引量:16
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作者 LI Wei-de LI Zi-zhen WANG Ji-quan 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2007年第4期508-512,共5页
Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods f... Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods for measuring oasis ecosystem risk were established using reliability theory. These indicators are linked to water resource, which is the key restricting factor in arid area oasis ecosystems. They have clear meanings and can also be compared in different arid area oases. A case study in the Liangzhou oasis of the Shiyang River Basin in China shows how to calculate these ecosystem risk indicators. The results of the case study are as follows: the reliability indicator, risk indicator, stability indicator, and integrated loss indicator of the Liangzhou oasis are 0.686, 0.314, 0.743, and 0.301, respectively. This means that the reliability degree of the oasis's ecosystem safety is 68.6%; the degree of risk that it is unsafe is 31.4%; the stability degree is 74.3%; and 30.1% of the oasis's area is supported by over-exploiting underground water and damaging the lower reaches of the ecosystem. This result can be used as a guide in controlling and managing ecosystem risk in the research area. 展开更多
关键词 ecosystem risk sustainable development Shiyang River Basin risk analysis
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Possible NPP changes and risky ecosystem region identification in China during the 21st century based on BCC-CSM2
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作者 ZHANG Chi WU Shaohong LENG Guoyong 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第8期1219-1232,共14页
Based on simulations by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 2(BCC-CSM2), the possible changes in net primary productivity (NPP) of the terrestrial ecosystemin China during the 21st century are expl... Based on simulations by the Beijing Climate Center climate system model version 2(BCC-CSM2), the possible changes in net primary productivity (NPP) of the terrestrial ecosystemin China during the 21st century are explored under the Shared SocioeconomicPathway 2 (SSP2) 4.5 scenario. We found both the near-term and long-term terrestrial NPPbasically shows a unanimously increasing trend, which indicates low ecosystem productivityrisk in the future. However, the simple linear regression is insufficient to characterize thelong-term variation of NPP. Using the piecewise linear regression approach, we identify adecreasing trend of NPP in large areas for the latter part of the 21st century. In the northeastregion (NER) from east Inner Mongolia to west Heilongjiang province, NPP decreases significantlyafter 2059 at a rate of −0.9% dec-1. In the south region (SR) from Zhejiang toGuangxi provinces, a rapid decline of −2.4% dec-1 is detected after 2085. Further analysisreveals that the rapid decline in SR is primarily attributed to the decrease in precipitation, withtemperature playing a secondary role, while the NPP decline in NER seems to have no evidentrelations with climate change. These findings are useful for making preparations forpotential ecosystem crisis in China in the future. 展开更多
关键词 climate change NPP ecosystem risk turning point SSP245
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耦合生态系统服务价值与生态风险评估的河西走廊生态分区
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作者 陈春阳 贾夏 +4 位作者 赵永华 单立山 司绍诚 赵明 张鹏 《应用生态学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期213-222,共10页
河西走廊作为我国重要的生态安全屏障,其生态分区研究对河西走廊实现精准修复、优化资源配置有重要意义。本研究通过估算河西走廊的生态系统服务价值,借助“源地-阻力面-廊道-战略点”的基本范式构建出河西走廊的生态安全格局,并耦合景... 河西走廊作为我国重要的生态安全屏障,其生态分区研究对河西走廊实现精准修复、优化资源配置有重要意义。本研究通过估算河西走廊的生态系统服务价值,借助“源地-阻力面-廊道-战略点”的基本范式构建出河西走廊的生态安全格局,并耦合景观生态风险评估结果划定生态分区,优化生态安全格局。结果表明:2000—2020年,研究区生态质量向好;其生态系统服务价值共增加157.41亿元;高生态风险区面积减少14324 km^(2),中、低生态风险区面积分别增加4778、9546 km^(2)。研究区生态要素在空间分布上具有一致性,主要位于河西走廊的南部。识别出生态源地10个,面积为20643.12 km^(2);提取生态廊道45条,长度为2685.69 km,其中,重要生态廊道15条,长度为1053.16 km;共识别出生态战略点64个。本研究将河西走廊划分为生态保障区、生态整治区、生态改善区和生态保育区4个生态分区,其中,生态源地、廊道主要位于生态保障区、生态保育区。研究结果可为河西走廊乃至西北地区的生态修复研究提供理论参考。 展开更多
关键词 河西走廊 生态安全格局 生态系统服务价值 景观生态风险
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A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin
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作者 Nguyen Phuong Lan 《Journal of Environmental Protection》 2021年第5期345-370,共26页
The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower develo... The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies. 展开更多
关键词 Lower Mekong Basin Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Transboundary River Basin Water Development Scenario ecosystem risk
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基于生态系统服务供需的城市PM_(2.5)污染风险时间变化特征与影响因素分析
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作者 慕浩枫 宋喆禄 +2 位作者 高镇 侯鹰 陈卫平 《生态环境学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期256-266,共11页
随着中国城市化和工业化进程的加快,城市PM_(2.5)污染风险日益突出,PM_(2.5)污染风险的时空格局变化特征和影响机制成为学界关注的热点。以北京市五环内区域为例,构建了基于生态系统服务供需的PM_(2.5)污染风险表征方法,定量评估了2008-... 随着中国城市化和工业化进程的加快,城市PM_(2.5)污染风险日益突出,PM_(2.5)污染风险的时空格局变化特征和影响机制成为学界关注的热点。以北京市五环内区域为例,构建了基于生态系统服务供需的PM_(2.5)污染风险表征方法,定量评估了2008-2021年该区域的PM_(2.5)污染风险,使用基于k-means的时间聚类方法分析了PM_(2.5)污染风险的年际和年内时间变化特征,应用XGBoost机器学习方法解析了影响PM_(2.5)去除服务供需和污染风险的气象因素。结果表明,北京市五环内区域的PM_(2.5)污染风险在2008-2021年呈现出先加重后减轻的变化特征;不同年份的高风险和低风险聚类在年内的时间分布基本稳定,高、低风险类交叉的时期大致为每年的春季、秋季和冬季,低风险类和无风险为主的时期大致为夏季。PM_(2.5)去除服务供给的最主要气象影响因素为比湿度和风速,服务需求的最主要气象影响因素为地表短波辐射。降水、比湿度、地表短波辐射在2012年和2016年均为PM_(2.5)污染风险的主要影响因素;地表长波辐射在夏季和2021年为污染风险的主要影响因素;风速和温度在季节尺度的影响虽较弱,但与污染风险有显著的负相关性。该研究可为理解城市PM2.5污染风险时间格局特征提供新视角,并为定量分析污染风险的气象影响因素提供新方法。 展开更多
关键词 生态系统服务供需 PM_(2.5)污染风险 影响因素 时间序列分析 XGBoost模型
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气候变化对海洋生态系统的风险评估
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作者 张典 奉龄洋 +7 位作者 方秦华 陈彬 马志远 程兰 赵子睿 阚志毅 俞炜炜 葛飞扬 《生态学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期663-676,共14页
气候变化正以前所未有的速度重塑海洋生态系统,成为全球海洋生物多样性与生态安全面临的重要威胁。作为气候风险评估的主导范式,IPCC框架在海洋领域的应用仍面临理论与实践脱节、关键指标内涵模糊及方法适用性不足。立足于IPCC气候框架... 气候变化正以前所未有的速度重塑海洋生态系统,成为全球海洋生物多样性与生态安全面临的重要威胁。作为气候风险评估的主导范式,IPCC框架在海洋领域的应用仍面临理论与实践脱节、关键指标内涵模糊及方法适用性不足。立足于IPCC气候框架,依循“初期探索-框架发展-系统整合”三个阶段,追溯了气候脆弱性到气候风险理论的演化脉络,并结合国际气候治理背景,系统回顾了该理论在海洋领域中的应用进程。通过对1998—2024年间101篇涉海文献进行文献计量分析,本研究从理论框架和实践评估两方面划分当前的研究主题。并围绕“致灾因子-暴露-脆弱性”三大核心维度,按照维度-一级指标层-二级指标的层级结构梳理了海洋生态系统的气候风险评估指标,揭示了各层级指标的研究偏好。同时,总结了现有三种主流的气候脆弱性与风险评估方法的特征。研究发现,IPCC气候风险框架在海洋生态系统的应用存在明显滞后。综合性风险评估多集中于渔业,其他关键生态系统的评估存在明显缺口,且对生态适应能力的量化研究仍显薄弱。未来研究应聚焦于构建以“致灾因子-暴露-脆弱性”为核心的协同评估框架,强化对海洋适应能力的动态评估,并深入解析气候变化多重气候风险因子间的非线性交互作用、海洋生物的级联效应与跨系统反馈,特别是加强我国在海洋综合观测和智能评估技术方面的适应性实践。本研究不仅丰富了气候变化对海洋生态风险的理论体系,也为构建科学、精准的风险评估框架提供了理论依据与实践参考。 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 适应能力 海洋生态系统 暴露 IPCC框架 气候脆弱性 气候风险
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Risk Assessment of Heavy Metal Pollution in Sediments of the Fenghe River by the Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model and Multivariate Statistical Methods 被引量:13
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作者 YANG Yang ZHOU Zhengchao +2 位作者 BAI Yanying CAI Yimin CHEN Weiping 《Pedosphere》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第3期326-334,共9页
Concentrations of heavy metals in 74 sediment samples from the Fenghe River, which originates from the north of the Qinling Mountains and flows through Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China, were characterized by employi... Concentrations of heavy metals in 74 sediment samples from the Fenghe River, which originates from the north of the Qinling Mountains and flows through Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, China, were characterized by employing geographic information system(GIS)mapping, fuzzy synthetic assessment, and multivariate statistical analysis to determine the enrichment characteristics of heavy metals as well as their potential risks of pollution to sediments. Al, Cd, and Co were the major pollutants, with a high enrichment factor(EF) value. Heavy metal concentrations from samples near the paper plant were maintained at a high level. Significant enrichment of Al, Ba, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Co was found in the midstream and downstream, while high concentration of Cu occurred in the headwater stream. Based on the cluster and principal component analyses, sediment metals mainly came from the paper plants, agronomic practices, natural sources, and tourism, with a contribution of 51.59%, 23.01%, 14.21%, and 9.88%, respectively. Sediment pollution assessment explored using fuzzy theory based on the entropy method and toxicity coefficient showed that 26, 32, and 11 sites fell into Class III(slightly polluted), Class IV(moderately polluted), and Class V(heavily polluted), respectively, and their scores of membership degree in the polluted level were on the rise, suggesting a relatively high degree of sediment metal pollution in the study area. Closely related to the excessive industrial and agricultural applications, metal pollution in sediment is necessary to be addressed in the Fenghe River. 展开更多
关键词 fuzzy theory risk analysis river ecosystem sediment pollution spatial analysis
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An ecologically-based method for selecting ecological indicators for assessing risks to biological diversity from genetically-engineered plants 被引量:1
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作者 D.A.Andow Gabor L.Lvei +13 位作者 Salvatore Arpaia Lewis Wilson Eliana M.G.Fontes Angelika Hilbeck Andreas Lang Nguyên Vǎn Tu't C.S.S.Pires E.R.Sujii Claudia Zwahlen A.N.E.Birch Deise M.F.Capalbo Kristina Prescott Celso Omoto Adam R.Zeilinger 《生物安全学报》 2013年第3期141-156,共16页
The environmental risks associated with genetically-engineered( GE) organisms have been controversial,and so have the models for the assessment of these risks. We propose an ecologically-based environmental risk asses... The environmental risks associated with genetically-engineered( GE) organisms have been controversial,and so have the models for the assessment of these risks. We propose an ecologically-based environmental risk assessment( ERA) model that follows the 1998 USEPA guidelines,focusing on potential adverse effects to biological diversity. The approach starts by( 1) identifying the local environmental values so the ERA addresses specific concerns associated with local biological diversity. The model simplifies the indicator endpoint selection problem by( 2) classifying biological diversity into ecological functional groups and selecting those that deliver the identified environmental values.( 3) All of the species or ecosystem processes related to the selected functional groups are identified and( 4) multi-criteria decision analysis( MCDA) is used to rank the indicator endpoint entities,which may be species or ecological processes. MCDA focuses on those species and processes that are critical for the identified ecological functions and are likely to be highly exposed to the GE organism. The highest ranked indicator entities are selected for the next step.( 5) Relevant risk hypotheses are identified. Knowledge about the specific transgene and its possible environmental effects in other countries can be used to assist development of risk hypotheses.( 6) The risk hypotheses are ranked using MCDA with criteria related to the severity of the potential risk. The model emphasizes transparent,expert-driven,ecologically-based decision-making and provides formal methods for completing a screening level-ERA that can focus ERA on the most significant concerns. The process requires substantial human input but the human capital is available in most countries and regions of the world. 展开更多
关键词 生物多样性 基因工程植物 风险评估 生态指标 基础 环境风险评价 生态系统过程 环境价值
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Climate Change Community-Based and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Barangays in Masinloc, Zambales, Philippines 被引量:1
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作者 Roann P. Alberto Annie Melinda Paz-Alberto +1 位作者 Carl Dionelle B. Ponce Kimberly Joy E. Mata 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2022年第4期342-362,共21页
Climate change continues to intensify existing disaster risks and vulnerabilities in the Philippines. Thus, implementation of climate change adaptation strategies is vital to counter the effects of climate change. It ... Climate change continues to intensify existing disaster risks and vulnerabilities in the Philippines. Thus, implementation of climate change adaptation strategies is vital to counter the effects of climate change. It is in this context that this study was undertaken to analyze the need or urgency to adopt community and ecosystem-based adaptation strategies among selected coastal barangays (villages) of Masinloc, Zambales, Philippines. Various methods of data collection were utilized such as secondary data collection, primary data collection through household survey, key informant interviews, and focus group. Results of the study indicate that in terms of community-based adaptation strategies, all of the seven barangays in Masinloc have moderate necessity. However, only Barangays Bani and Collat have high adaptation capacity in terms of infrastructure and disaster preparedness. The execution of several community-based adaptation strategies helps these barangays to respond immediately and appropriately to the moderate risk posed by floods and storm surges. On the other hand, in terms of ecosystem-based adaptation strategies, all of the seven barangays have moderate necessity which implies that they have moderate vulnerability and risk to flood and storm surge but have high adaptation capacity in terms of the conservation and protection of coastal resources (mangroves and sea grasses). The barangays implemented the necessary ecosystem-based adaptation mechanisms that they might need in the future. This only means that when they are faced with disaster, the local communities are prepared to respond appropriately and to cope up with the effects of extreme weather events which lead to floods and storm surge. Even though most of the ecosystem-based adaptation strategies are conducted by the seven barangays, there are several community-based adaptation strategies that are still lacking which will protect them from the effect of floods and storm surges. Hence, carrying out the missing adaptation strategies, both community-based and ecosystem-based, will help in improving the adaptive capacity of the affected barangays and will help them become more resilient to the amplified effects of climate change. 展开更多
关键词 Climate Change NECESSITY Community-Based Adaptation Strategies ecosystem-Based Adaptation Strategies Disaster risk Assessment
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基于景观生态风险和生态系统服务价值的上海市海岸带生态保护修复分区识别与优化策略研究 被引量:9
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作者 干靓 汪钊 《应用海洋学学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期131-145,共15页
在国土空间陆海统筹的背景下,科学评估海岸带现有生态环境,以降低因土地利用变化产生的景观生态风险、提升生态系统服务供给能力是海岸带生态环境管理的重要方向。聚焦如何通过探究海岸带生态系统服务价值和景观生态风险的空间相关性,... 在国土空间陆海统筹的背景下,科学评估海岸带现有生态环境,以降低因土地利用变化产生的景观生态风险、提升生态系统服务供给能力是海岸带生态环境管理的重要方向。聚焦如何通过探究海岸带生态系统服务价值和景观生态风险的空间相关性,为科学构建海岸带生态保护修复安全格局提供支撑,本文以上海市海岸带为研究对象,基于150 m×150 m的评价单元,定量评价研究区的景观生态风险和生态系统服务价值,采用双变量空间自相关分析法揭示二者的局部空间关联性,以此为基础进行生态保护修复分区并提出优化策略。研究结果表明:“高生态系统服务价值-高景观生态风险区”具有资源禀赋优势,但受港口、码头建设活动和海洋自然灾害影响严重;“低生态系统服务价值-低景观生态风险区”承载少量生产活动,受周边景观生态高风险地区影响,生态风险可能增加;“低生态系统服务价值-高景观生态风险区”人类生产生活活动密集,对原有自然环境改造程度高,对区域生态风险影响程度大;“高生态系统服务价值-低景观生态风险区”旅游业发达,游客居民活动频繁,但周围已完成或正在开展生态修复项目,生态环境良好。基于以上结果,将上海市海岸带地区划分为生态脆弱保护区、生态涵养防控区、生态风险修复区、生态潜力发展区、生态过渡区5类生态保护修复分区,并提出相应的修复措施,为超大城市海岸带生态修复精细化分区规划和管理提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 景观生态风险 生态系统服务价值 空间关联性 海岸带
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Vulnerability to Health Risks:Challenges of Human Being on Earth and Mitigation Measures
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作者 Eliakimu Kagimbo 《地学前缘》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2009年第S1期88-88,共1页
In 12th February 2008 UN launched IYPE,and some of the missions were;to demonstrate the great potential of Earth Sciences in the building of a safer, wealthier and safer society,as the Earth and Life are origins of di... In 12th February 2008 UN launched IYPE,and some of the missions were;to demonstrate the great potential of Earth Sciences in the building of a safer, wealthier and safer society,as the Earth and Life are origins of diversity.Currently we experience human activities posing impacts such as climate variability and huge diseases burden due to exploring of Geo resources.The paper describes potential health risks such as ionizing radiation,Geo hazards,chemicals 展开更多
关键词 health riskS and hazards EARTH and ecosystem environmental SECTOR POLLUTION
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基于测度-分异-机制-管控框架的粮食主产区耕地生态系统退化风险研究
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作者 郭欣欣 孙甲荣 +3 位作者 孙哲 蔡亚君 马彤彤 杜国明 《农业机械学报》 北大核心 2025年第10期635-647,共13页
综合把握粮食主产区耕地生态系统退化风险水平、分布特征及其驱动机制可为区域耕地生态系统退化风险的防控治理提供有益参考。以黑龙江省为例,本文基于测度-分异-机制-管控框架,引入耕地生态系统服务负向价值与净价值构建耕地生态系统... 综合把握粮食主产区耕地生态系统退化风险水平、分布特征及其驱动机制可为区域耕地生态系统退化风险的防控治理提供有益参考。以黑龙江省为例,本文基于测度-分异-机制-管控框架,引入耕地生态系统服务负向价值与净价值构建耕地生态系统退化风险指数,运用空间自相关和地理探测器等方法综合分析黑龙江省2020年耕地生态系统退化风险的空间分异特征及其影响机理,并提出管控建议。结果表明,2020年黑龙江省耕地生态系统中等退化风险及以上区域占总县域数量的62.03%,区域耕地生态系统退化风险指数平均值为22.25%,为中等退化水平;耕地生态系统退化风险在空间上表现出明显的异质性及聚集性,中等及以上退化风险区主要分布在研究区西部和西南部,低退化风险区及较低退化风险区主要分布在研究区南北轴带(除中部地区)及东部区域,并呈现以低-低和高-高集聚为主的聚集特征;人口密度、路网密度、城镇化率、人均GDP、农业机械投入强度和灌溉指数等社会经济因素是黑龙江省耕地生态系统退化的主控因素;耕地投入强度与人口经济指标间相互作用、耕地投入强度关键指标间相互作用及人口经济指标间相互作用会显著影响退化风险水平;应通过分区管控降低源头压力、进行全程监控、实施退化治理等措施进行耕地质量全生命周期管控。研究成果可为黑龙江省及其他粮食主产区测度及遏制耕地生态系统退化风险提供理论和实践参考。 展开更多
关键词 耕地生态系统 退化风险 生态系统服务价值 粮食主产区 黑龙江省
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信息高风险时代的新闻创新与人工智能 被引量:1
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作者 王辰瑶 封丽 《新闻界》 北大核心 2025年第6期17-27,40,共12页
从信息生态系统理论的视角出发,本文分析了人工智能与社交网络叠加生成当下信息高风险环境的内在原因,并指出,面对这种情况,新闻业不能仅考虑“应用人工智能”的新闻创新,更应采取“面向人工智能”的新闻创新,因为前者追求的只是在现有... 从信息生态系统理论的视角出发,本文分析了人工智能与社交网络叠加生成当下信息高风险环境的内在原因,并指出,面对这种情况,新闻业不能仅考虑“应用人工智能”的新闻创新,更应采取“面向人工智能”的新闻创新,因为前者追求的只是在现有框架下提升新闻业效率,而后者才是对新闻业在当下信息生态系统中存在意义的重新锚定。本文讨论了四种“面向人工智能”的新闻创新行动,包括:对新闻工作机制展开广泛的“再阐释”,重建新闻面对人工智能的文化权威;优化人工智能的部署方向,提升新闻的认知价值;创建关于“人工智能”的专门化报道领域,确立新闻业对AI议题的话语权;强化AI时代的新闻伦理,捍卫真实性与公共性的操作规范。总之,进行“面对人工智能”的新闻创新,意味着新闻业应致力于成为信息生态系统的修复者和人工智能企业的平等合作者,而非盲目的技术跟随者。 展开更多
关键词 信息风险 信息生态系统 人工智能 新闻创新
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Climate Change Vulnerability and Disaster Risk Assessment Using Remote Sensing Technology and Adaptation Strategies for Resiliency and Disaster Risk Management in Selected Coastal Municipalities of Zambales, Philippines 被引量:2
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作者 Annie Melinda Paz-Alberto Eliza Camaso +4 位作者 Roann P. Alberto Daryl A. Juganas Kathrina M. Mapanao Carl Dionelle B. Ponce Christopher Genaro 《American Journal of Climate Change》 2021年第1期85-133,共49页
The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing h... The Philippines is one of the most hazard prone and vulnerable countries in the world to climate change effects due to its geographical location. Climate change is already happening and affecting many places causing huge problems to coastal ecosystems. Vulnerability and disaster assessment and mapping in coastal areas are essential tasks and undertakings for coastal disaster risk management. The objectives of this study were to assess the climate change vulnerability and disaster risks in the four municipalities (Sta. Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc and Palauig) of Zambales and to determine the climate change community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) strategies. Remote sensing, GIS, secondary data gathering and key informant interview were used to assess vulnerability and disaster risks and mapping in the four municipalities. Survey questionnaire, focus group discussion and key informant interview were utilized in gathering data for the determination of climate change adaptation strategies. Using remote sensing technology, it was revealed that coastline changes have occurred in the shorelines of the four coastal municipalities after a decade. Sea level rise happened in Sta. Cruz and Masinloc, Zambales while there was build-up of soil in the coastline of Candelaria and Palauig, Zambales. Twelve hazard maps, 12 vulnerability maps and 12 disaster risk maps were generated for the three major disasters (flood, landslide, storm surge) in the four coastal municipalities. Based on the flood vulnerability and disaster risk assessment, the municipality of Palauig was found to be the most prone to flooding while the municipality of Candelaria was found to be the most vulnerable to landslide compared to other municipalities. All coastal barangays in the four municipalities were susceptible to storm surge. The four coastal municipalities were conducting community-based adaptation (CBA) and ecosystem-based adaptation (EBA) approaches in order to protect their coastal resources from the damaging impacts of climate change and improve the resilience of their local communities. 展开更多
关键词 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Disaster risk Remote Sensing Community-Based Adaptation ecosystem-Based Adaptation
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基于金融科技的保险产品运营模式创新研究 被引量:2
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作者 唐金成 孙婷婷 周思颖 《当代金融研究》 2025年第1期13-27,共15页
金融科技已成为保险业转型升级的核心驱动力,有效推动了保险产品运营模式的创新。聚焦于金融科技与保险产品模式创新的深度融合,从市场规模增长模式、产品创新模式和渠道运营拓展模式三方面系统阐述保险产品运营模式的创新亟需金融科技... 金融科技已成为保险业转型升级的核心驱动力,有效推动了保险产品运营模式的创新。聚焦于金融科技与保险产品模式创新的深度融合,从市场规模增长模式、产品创新模式和渠道运营拓展模式三方面系统阐述保险产品运营模式的创新亟需金融科技支持。通过对大数据、人工智能、区块链和云计算等前沿技术在保险产品内部运营和外部市场方面的应用剖析,揭示金融科技驱动保险产品模式创新的内在逻辑与发展路径,深入探讨创新过程中面临的在线用户特征与高价值长期保险产品不匹配、新技术应用下保险产品创新面临多种新型风险、保险运营数字技术亟待优化和保险生态圈闭环模式不成熟等问题与挑战,并提出打造长期保险产品价值跃迁模型、构建数字风险协同治理体系、坚持技术赋能双螺旋发展路径、升级适应金融科技的生态圈闭环模式等对策建议,为保险业的持续创新和健康发展提供理论支撑和实践指导。 展开更多
关键词 金融科技 保险产品运营模式 保险产品创新 数字风险 保险生态圈
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Fenton-like process in antibiotic-containing wastewater treatment:Applications and toxicity evaluation
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作者 Jingyi Yang Sihan Wang +2 位作者 Xubiao Luo Zhenyang Yu Yanbo Zhou 《Chinese Chemical Letters》 2025年第12期5-12,共8页
Antibiotic-contaminated wastewater poses a global threat to aquatic ecosystems.Fenton-like oxidative processes effectively decompose recalcitrant pollutants.While these oxidative processes effectively break down targe... Antibiotic-contaminated wastewater poses a global threat to aquatic ecosystems.Fenton-like oxidative processes effectively decompose recalcitrant pollutants.While these oxidative processes effectively break down target contaminants,they may also produce uncontrolled intermediates,potentially resulting in unexpected combined toxicities.This review explores the chemical mechanisms behind Fenton-like reactions,particularly in antibiotic removal,and evaluates the formation of byproducts and their potential toxicological effects.Furthermore,recommendations for optimizing catalyst design and treatment conditions are provided to enhance degradation performance while minimizing ecological risks.This study highlights critical concerns regarding the toxicity of degradation byproducts and their impact on ecosystems by integrating chemical and biological risk assessments.By integrating chemical and biological risk assessments with computational toxicology,particularly quantitative structure-activity relationship(QSAR)modeling,this study proposes a comprehensive approach to evaluate degradation and toxicity.This work highlights the importance of a comprehensive framework for evaluating degradation efficiency and toxicity,contributing to safer and more effective antibiotic wastewater treatment strategies.The findings underscore the importance of balancing degradation efficiency with environmental safety in wastewater treatment processes involving advanced oxidative technologies. 展开更多
关键词 Antibiotic wastewater Fenton-like method Degradation pathway Toxicity evaluation ecosystem risk
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LUCC影响下洞庭湖区生态系统服务价值与景观生态风险耦合特征研究
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作者 谭洁 廖朝阳 +2 位作者 余德 邓慧婷 张明 《长江流域资源与环境》 北大核心 2025年第10期2338-2351,共14页
洞庭湖区作为长江流域重要的湿地屏障与生态系统服务核心供给区,其生态系统服务状况和生态风险评估对该区域生态安全格局搭建与生态系统可持续发展具有重要意义。基于洞庭湖区1996~2020年遥感影像解译数据,采用改进的生态系统服务价值... 洞庭湖区作为长江流域重要的湿地屏障与生态系统服务核心供给区,其生态系统服务状况和生态风险评估对该区域生态安全格局搭建与生态系统可持续发展具有重要意义。基于洞庭湖区1996~2020年遥感影像解译数据,采用改进的生态系统服务价值评估、景观生态风险评价、热点分析等方法探究了洞庭湖区土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)影响下生态系统服务价值(ESV)与景观生态风险(LER)的时空演变特征及二者耦合性。结果表明:(1)研究期内,洞庭湖区耕地持续增加,草地、未利用地持续减少,水域呈现波动性减少趋势,林地、建设用地为波动性增加趋势;(2)ESV呈先减小后增大变化趋势,其总量减少了212.47亿元,减少幅度为8.33%,LER略有降低,呈持续下降变化趋势,平均值从0.7814降为0.7332;ESV冷热点分布格局较稳定,而LER热点区呈缩小趋势,二者热点区均主要分布在洞庭湖区水域范围,冷点区则主要分布在研究区周边的林地、草地;(3)洞庭湖区ESV与LER耦合协调度的发展趋势为“先减小后增大”,呈“中间高四周低”特征,整体以“发展较为失衡”和“勉强均衡发展”类型为主。研究结果可为构建洞庭湖区生态产品价值实现和大湖流域生态安全格局构建提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 土地利用/覆盖变化 生态系统服务价值 景观生态风险 耦合协调度 洞庭湖区
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基于委托-代理模型的生态补偿关键影响因素及机制优化研究
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作者 袁伟彦 《管理现代化》 北大核心 2025年第4期182-188,共7页
参与双方就补偿标准达成一致是生态补偿得以顺利实施的关键。基于委托-代理模型,系统分析生态服务使用方和生产方参与生态补偿的合约关系,探究生态补偿实施的关键影响因素。结果发现:信息对称、服务生产方风险中性有利于双方以最低补偿... 参与双方就补偿标准达成一致是生态补偿得以顺利实施的关键。基于委托-代理模型,系统分析生态服务使用方和生产方参与生态补偿的合约关系,探究生态补偿实施的关键影响因素。结果发现:信息对称、服务生产方风险中性有利于双方以最低补偿标准建立生态补偿合约,生产方有限责任和风险厌恶会导致使用方需要支付额外的补偿成本。因此,为了推动生态补偿实施、提高生态补偿效率,要通过引入中间监管组织、合理筛选服务生产方、强化政府部门参与等措施优化生态补偿机制设计,尽可能降低生产方有关生产投入的信息租金、减少生态服务生产投入产出关系的随机性、提升补偿带来的潜在生态服务“额外增益”,以有效弱化这些问题的负向影响。 展开更多
关键词 信息不对称 有限责任 风险厌恶 生态补偿
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生态防灾减灾研究重点领域和前沿趋势
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作者 戴代新 李林勃 薄茗洋 《中国城市林业》 2025年第5期28-36,共9页
气候变化背景下城市面临的极端天气与灾害风险愈发突出,生态防灾减灾(Eco-DRR)是适应极端气候的重要途径,国内研究较为欠缺.文章以"生态防灾减灾"为主题,基于Web of Science核心合集(2007-2024年)英文文献,运用CiteSpace分析E... 气候变化背景下城市面临的极端天气与灾害风险愈发突出,生态防灾减灾(Eco-DRR)是适应极端气候的重要途径,国内研究较为欠缺.文章以"生态防灾减灾"为主题,基于Web of Science核心合集(2007-2024年)英文文献,运用CiteSpace分析Eco-DRR研究态势,系统梳理国际Eco-DRR研究概况与发展脉络,明晰重点领域和前沿趋势.结果表明:当前研究聚焦于灾害风险评估、减灾性能评估与实践、经济成本分析与资金运营机制、环境与人类福祉综合效益4大重点领域;前沿方向包括拓展灾害类型与应用区域、多重效益评估及新兴技术融合.未来研究应立足于韧性安全的视角,从现实需求出发,积极应用人工智能技术,深入探索Eco-DRR的理论框架及可持续实施路径,并推动其与国土空间防灾减灾规划技术体系深度融合. 展开更多
关键词 生态防灾减灾 文献综述 计量分析 CITESPACE
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产业链、创新链、资本链、人才链“四链合一”下创新生态系统风险管理研究:以新能源汽车企业为例
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作者 毛凌翔 兰菁 倪子昂 《评价与管理》 2025年第1期16-22,共7页
在产业链、创新链、资本链、人才链“四链合一”的大背景下,创新及其构成的生态系统,推动产业与企业向着良性和纵深方向发展。为避免创新生态系统失效引发系列问题,创新生态系统风险管理问题成为创新生态系统研究的热点。以新能源汽车... 在产业链、创新链、资本链、人才链“四链合一”的大背景下,创新及其构成的生态系统,推动产业与企业向着良性和纵深方向发展。为避免创新生态系统失效引发系列问题,创新生态系统风险管理问题成为创新生态系统研究的热点。以新能源汽车企业为创新生态系统研究切入案例,将新能源汽车企业创新生态系统风险作为分析与评价的研究对象。引入改进的基于直觉模糊权重平均算子的FMEA方法对新能源汽车企业创新生态系统的失效模式进行风险评价,研究“四链合一”下新能源汽车企业创新生态系统风险失效模式的重要度排序。结果具有明显的管理与实际意义,验证了此方法的可行性和有效性,为产业链、创新链、资本链、人才链“四链合一”下创新生态系统风险分析与评价提供了有效的管理方法与手段。 展开更多
关键词 创新生态系统 新能源汽车 FMEA 风险管理
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