On the opening day of the third China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing on 16 July,one pavilion stood out by drawing special attention from visitors including representatives from the International Automobile...On the opening day of the third China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing on 16 July,one pavilion stood out by drawing special attention from visitors including representatives from the International Automobile Federation,global and domestic tech giants like Siemens and CATL,as well as businesspeople from countries like Saudi Arabia,Germany,and Mexico.展开更多
Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainti...Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.展开更多
Efficient control of the desulphurization system is challenging in maximizing the economic objective while reducing the SO_(2) emission concentration. The conventional optimization method is generally based on a hiera...Efficient control of the desulphurization system is challenging in maximizing the economic objective while reducing the SO_(2) emission concentration. The conventional optimization method is generally based on a hierarchical structure in which the upper optimization layer calculates the steady-state results and the lower control layer is responsible to drive the process to the target point. However, the conventional hierarchical structure does not take the economic performance of the dynamic tracking process into account. To this end, multi-objective economic model predictive control(MOEMPC) is introduced in this paper, which unifies the optimization and control layers in a single stage. The objective functions are formulated in terms of a dynamic horizon and to balance the stability and economic performance. In the MOEMPC scheme, economic performance and SO_(2) emission performance are guaranteed by tracking a set of utopia points during dynamic transitions. The terminal penalty function and stabilizing constraint conditions are designed to ensure the stability of the system. Finally, an optimized control method for the stable operation of the complex desulfurization system has been established. Simulation results demonstrate that MOEMPC is superior over another control strategy in terms of economic performance and emission reduction, especially when the desulphurization system suffers from frequent flue gas disturbances.展开更多
In this paper, a two\|sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two\|...In this paper, a two\|sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two\|dimension nonautonomous differential equation is obtained. The results of the model manifest that the labor force transfer delays industrial sector growth and accelerates the agricultural sector growth. It is proved that the solution of the model is asymptotic stable. By the numerical analysis, the economic growth and labor force transfer is presented under the specific parameters.展开更多
Due to the deterioration of serious energy dilemma,energy-conservation and emission–reduction have been the strategic target in the past decades,thus people have identified the vital importance of higher energy effic...Due to the deterioration of serious energy dilemma,energy-conservation and emission–reduction have been the strategic target in the past decades,thus people have identified the vital importance of higher energy efficiency and the influence of lower carbon development.Since work exchange network is a significant part of energy recovery system,its optima design will have dramatically significant effect on energy consumption reduction in chemical process system.With an extension of the developed transshipment model in isothermal process,a novel step-wise methodology for synthesis of direct work exchange network(WEN)in adiabatic process involving heat integration is first proposed in this paper,where a nonlinear programming(NLP)model is formulated by regarding the minimum utility consumption as objective function and optimizing the initial WEN in accordance with the presented matching rules to get the optimized WEN configuration at first.Furthermore,we focus on the work exchange network synthesis with heat integration to attain the minimal total annual cost(TAC)with the introduction of heat-exchange equipment that is achieved by the following strategies in sequence:introducing heat-exchange equipment directly,adjusting the work quantity of the adjacent utility compressors or expanders,and approximating upper/lower pressure limits consequently to obtain considerable cost savings of expanders or compressors and work utility.Finally,a case taken from the literature is studied to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Reverse engineering, also called back engineering, is the process of extracting knowledge or designing information from anything： mechanical device electronic components, computer programs, or biological, chemical ma...Reverse engineering, also called back engineering, is the process of extracting knowledge or designing information from anything： mechanical device electronic components, computer programs, or biological, chemical matters, and--subsequently--analyzing its components. Reverse engineering can be applied for the sake of creating artificial intelligence, e.g. when the used methods are based on very old games, such as Go and chess. Many generations of computers are able to play at the same level as human grandmasters. A computers＇ arrival at that level is due to imitation of human Go or chess play. A particular emphasis shall be placed upon the Go game, known for 5,500 years. Invented in China, it may be classified as the oldest board game, having its ardent enthusiasts until present times. Old physical issues can be easily projected upon the modeling of new economic phenomena and quantum games. The aim of this paper is to discuss the applications of reverse engineering, traditional social games and other domains, such as quantum physics, to the analysis of utterly new social as well as economic phenomena.展开更多
According to design theories,alternatives result from a construct;it can be from an analyst or decision makers and stakeholders.The generation of alternatives for the development of an economic model on medical market...According to design theories,alternatives result from a construct;it can be from an analyst or decision makers and stakeholders.The generation of alternatives for the development of an economic model on medical markets was initiated with academic researchers,since medical and economic investigators also advised medical policies,especially at the time of the study on policy options to address shortages of critical drugs and to provide recommendations on controversial drugs in the TZD class.Global pharmaceutical pricing models have been so far driven by big life science companies in interaction with governments;the most common models discussed at a global level come from neo classical economic theory with adjustments of market prices,use of differentiated pricing to take into account adjustment of prices with GNPs differences or reference pricing to adjust access to consumers(e.g.in EU countries);other proposals include peak load pricing such as in Telecommunications.However,changes in international relation policies require now additional alternatives and objectives in a multi-stakeholder world for global health policies,the engagement of powerful non-state players,and the role of social medias into politics.In EWG-MCDA meeting at West Attica(Athens,2024),it was proposed to use a C-K design framework to expand policy alternatives,using expansion of the concept space,especially for a cost sharing research agenda;after the recent communications at Euro and ADA conferences in July 2024,this paper proposes some advances for the general framework involving the South and North Hemispheres,and addressing common issues on major diseases such as diabetes.展开更多
A new modern resource management method based on economic model is proposed. Giving mathematic description about economic model; analysis different resource scheduling methods based on deadline and budget constrained ...A new modern resource management method based on economic model is proposed. Giving mathematic description about economic model; analysis different resource scheduling methods based on deadline and budget constrained which present by Buyya, point out shortcoming of Buyya's schedule method. Considerate integrate factor of time and budget, by import a weight coefficient named a , puts forward a new resource schedule method named STPP based on economic models of Buyya. Contrast to old schedule strategy of Buyya through analysis and experiments, STPP policy is more flexible, and is easy to import other new QoS parameters.展开更多
This paper presents a finite-time economic model predictive control(MPC)algorithm that can be used for frequency regulation and optimal load dispatch in multi-area power systems.Economic MPC can be used in a power sys...This paper presents a finite-time economic model predictive control(MPC)algorithm that can be used for frequency regulation and optimal load dispatch in multi-area power systems.Economic MPC can be used in a power system to ensure frequency stability,real-time economic optimization,control of the system and optimal load dispatch from it.A generalized terminal penalty term was used,and the finite-time convergence of the system was guaranteed.The effectiveness of the proposed model predictive control algorithm was verified by simulating a power system,which had two areas connected by an AC tie line.The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm.展开更多
Tube furnaces are essential and primary energy intensive facilities in petrochemical plants. Operational optimization of furnaces could not only help to improve product quality but also benefit to reduce energy consum...Tube furnaces are essential and primary energy intensive facilities in petrochemical plants. Operational optimization of furnaces could not only help to improve product quality but also benefit to reduce energy consumption and exhaust emission. Inspired by this idea, this paper presents a composite model predictive control(CMPC)strategy, which, taking advantage of distributed model predictive control architectures, combines tracking nonlinear model predictive control and economic nonlinear model predictive control metrics to keep process running smoothly and optimize operational conditions. The controllers connected with two kinds of communication networks are easy to organize and maintain, and stable to process interferences. A fast solution algorithm combining interior point solvers and Newton's method is accommodated to the CMPC realization, with reasonable CPU computing time and suitable online applications. Simulation for industrial case demonstrates that the proposed approach can ensure stable operations of furnaces, improve heat efficiency, and reduce the emission effectively.展开更多
The motive of these investigations is to provide the importance and significance of the fractional order(FO)derivatives in the nonlinear environmental and economic(NEE)model,i.e.,FO-NEE model.The dynamics of the NEE m...The motive of these investigations is to provide the importance and significance of the fractional order(FO)derivatives in the nonlinear environmental and economic(NEE)model,i.e.,FO-NEE model.The dynamics of the NEE model achieves more precise by using the form of the FO derivative.The investigations through the non-integer and nonlinear mathematical form to define the FO-NEE model are also provided in this study.The composition of the FO-NEEmodel is classified into three classes,execution cost of control,system competence of industrial elements and a new diagnostics technical exclusion cost.The mathematical FO-NEE system is numerically studied by using the artificial neural networks(ANNs)along with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation method(ANNs-LMBM).Three different cases using the FO derivative have been examined to present the numerical performances of the FO-NEE model.The data is selected to solve the mathematical FO-NEE system is executed as 70%for training and 15%for both testing and certification.The exactness of the proposed ANNs-LMBM is observed through the comparison of the obtained and the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton database results.To ratify the aptitude,validity,constancy,exactness,and competence of the ANNs-LMBM,the numerical replications using the state transitions,regression,correlation,error histograms and mean square error are also described.展开更多
The Macedonian economy gets out relatively little hurt by the global economic crisis not facing with financial crisis, the recession was short-lived, and social crisis emerged in modest sizes. However, the global cris...The Macedonian economy gets out relatively little hurt by the global economic crisis not facing with financial crisis, the recession was short-lived, and social crisis emerged in modest sizes. However, the global crisis revealed the major weaknesses of the economic model which was implemented. It turned out that the Macedonian economy is very dependent on the performance of only a few sectors and movements on the prices of its most important export and import products, and that the scope of supply and demand for domestic goods and services is small. These lectures from the economic crisis posed by the need to create a new model for country economic development in the future. The application of historical, statistical, analytical and comparative method shows that Macedonia should exercise other holistic approach in the remodeling of their economy. This means that, besides keeping macroeconomic and financial policy in the future the Macedonian government should act more vigorously in the direction of creating new jobs and provide greater social security. The economic model that we propose in this paper recommends it be done by encouraging small and medium enterprises, diversification of production, encouraging domestic investments, developing human capital, improving infrastructure, encouraging exports and harmonization the macroeconomic instruments. The application of this model will result in increasing investments, industrial production and exports, increasing the competitiveness of domestic products, reducing the trade deficit and maintaining the macroeconomic stability. The general conclusion of the paper is that application of the proposed economic model should lead to realization of two most important goals： achieving lasting, sustainable and significantly higher rates of economic growth and reducing the high rate of unemployment in the country.展开更多
The Technical Barriers to Trade （TBT） is an important problem faced to the export of China. Based on the number differences of TBT notifications between countries, we propose the concept and computational method of ...The Technical Barriers to Trade （TBT） is an important problem faced to the export of China. Based on the number differences of TBT notifications between countries, we propose the concept and computational method of the technical barrier coefficient. By means of price-production and price-demand functions, a trade model with a developed country and a developing country is designed. The available trade policies such as technical barriers, tariffs and export subsidies are simulated and analyzed. According to the simulation results, several trade strategies to come over technical barriers are suggested. These suggestions were provided to several export enterprises for their export strategy design.展开更多
The use of mathematical models in economics has long been a subject of debate,particularly regarding the tension between mathematical precision and the unpredictability of human behavior.This paper critically examines...The use of mathematical models in economics has long been a subject of debate,particularly regarding the tension between mathematical precision and the unpredictability of human behavior.This paper critically examines the limitations of over-relying on mathematical models to predict economic outcomes,arguing that such models often fail to account for the social,cultural,and psychological factors that drive economic activities.The analysis highlights how attempts to quantify complex economic behaviors may lead to oversimplifications and inaccurate forecasts,as illustrated by past financial crises and market disruptions.The paper concludes by advocating for a more balanced approach that combines mathematical rigor with an understanding of human behavior to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of economic predictions.展开更多
This paper analyzes the factors that influence the development of regional industry cluster, which are location factors, accumulatable factors, and external factors. Then regarding the similarity between the developme...This paper analyzes the factors that influence the development of regional industry cluster, which are location factors, accumulatable factors, and external factors. Then regarding the similarity between the development of industry cluster and biology community, a modified logistic model is built, and a field study is made between the real instances and the model.展开更多
Regional economic vitality reflects the scale and development potential of a region’s economy.It largely determines the development of the city,and is also affected by many factors such as population competitiveness,...Regional economic vitality reflects the scale and development potential of a region’s economy.It largely determines the development of the city,and is also affected by many factors such as population competitiveness,corporate competitiveness,market vitality,innovation vitality,and environmental vitality.A pilot model was constructed with Hebei Province as the inspection area.Quantitative measurement of regional economic vitality was made by finding 21 indicators that indirectly or indirectly affect the economic vitality of Hebei Province.By analyzing the data of 21 indicators for nearly 10 years,the time series clustering is used to achieve the dimensionality reduction of the indicators.After the dimension reduction,it is divided into four categories:overall scale,development potential,market vitality,and innovation vitality.Construct the economic vitality structure model of Hebei Province,and determine the four types of contribution to economic vitality and compare them.On this basis,more accurately grasp the indicators that affect economic vitality and work out reasonable and effective action plans.From the perspective of human resources and corporate vitality,analyze how the action plan accurately affects the economic vitality of Hebei Province[1].The 11 cities in Hebei Province are the target of regional economic vitality.The economic vitality structure model constructed uses the required contribution value to select priority indicators.Finally,the six indicators of GPD,GPD growth rate,fiscal revenue,fiscal revenue growth rate,number of industrial enterprises above designated size,and total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size were established for eleven cities in Hebei Province to construct a TOPSIS scoring model,and calculation rankings were conducted through MATLAB.Results The top three cities were Shijiazhuang,Tangshan and Cangzhou.展开更多
文摘On the opening day of the third China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing on 16 July,one pavilion stood out by drawing special attention from visitors including representatives from the International Automobile Federation,global and domestic tech giants like Siemens and CATL,as well as businesspeople from countries like Saudi Arabia,Germany,and Mexico.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Project of China(2018YFE0122200).
文摘Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFB0601805)。
文摘Efficient control of the desulphurization system is challenging in maximizing the economic objective while reducing the SO_(2) emission concentration. The conventional optimization method is generally based on a hierarchical structure in which the upper optimization layer calculates the steady-state results and the lower control layer is responsible to drive the process to the target point. However, the conventional hierarchical structure does not take the economic performance of the dynamic tracking process into account. To this end, multi-objective economic model predictive control(MOEMPC) is introduced in this paper, which unifies the optimization and control layers in a single stage. The objective functions are formulated in terms of a dynamic horizon and to balance the stability and economic performance. In the MOEMPC scheme, economic performance and SO_(2) emission performance are guaranteed by tracking a set of utopia points during dynamic transitions. The terminal penalty function and stabilizing constraint conditions are designed to ensure the stability of the system. Finally, an optimized control method for the stable operation of the complex desulfurization system has been established. Simulation results demonstrate that MOEMPC is superior over another control strategy in terms of economic performance and emission reduction, especially when the desulphurization system suffers from frequent flue gas disturbances.
文摘In this paper, a two\|sector growth model is given. The labor force transfer process from agricultural sector to industrial sector is exogenous determined. By introducing the labor force transferring function, a two\|dimension nonautonomous differential equation is obtained. The results of the model manifest that the labor force transfer delays industrial sector growth and accelerates the agricultural sector growth. It is proved that the solution of the model is asymptotic stable. By the numerical analysis, the economic growth and labor force transfer is presented under the specific parameters.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(21576036,21406026)
文摘Due to the deterioration of serious energy dilemma,energy-conservation and emission–reduction have been the strategic target in the past decades,thus people have identified the vital importance of higher energy efficiency and the influence of lower carbon development.Since work exchange network is a significant part of energy recovery system,its optima design will have dramatically significant effect on energy consumption reduction in chemical process system.With an extension of the developed transshipment model in isothermal process,a novel step-wise methodology for synthesis of direct work exchange network(WEN)in adiabatic process involving heat integration is first proposed in this paper,where a nonlinear programming(NLP)model is formulated by regarding the minimum utility consumption as objective function and optimizing the initial WEN in accordance with the presented matching rules to get the optimized WEN configuration at first.Furthermore,we focus on the work exchange network synthesis with heat integration to attain the minimal total annual cost(TAC)with the introduction of heat-exchange equipment that is achieved by the following strategies in sequence:introducing heat-exchange equipment directly,adjusting the work quantity of the adjacent utility compressors or expanders,and approximating upper/lower pressure limits consequently to obtain considerable cost savings of expanders or compressors and work utility.Finally,a case taken from the literature is studied to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.
文摘Reverse engineering, also called back engineering, is the process of extracting knowledge or designing information from anything： mechanical device electronic components, computer programs, or biological, chemical matters, and--subsequently--analyzing its components. Reverse engineering can be applied for the sake of creating artificial intelligence, e.g. when the used methods are based on very old games, such as Go and chess. Many generations of computers are able to play at the same level as human grandmasters. A computers＇ arrival at that level is due to imitation of human Go or chess play. A particular emphasis shall be placed upon the Go game, known for 5,500 years. Invented in China, it may be classified as the oldest board game, having its ardent enthusiasts until present times. Old physical issues can be easily projected upon the modeling of new economic phenomena and quantum games. The aim of this paper is to discuss the applications of reverse engineering, traditional social games and other domains, such as quantum physics, to the analysis of utterly new social as well as economic phenomena.
文摘According to design theories,alternatives result from a construct;it can be from an analyst or decision makers and stakeholders.The generation of alternatives for the development of an economic model on medical markets was initiated with academic researchers,since medical and economic investigators also advised medical policies,especially at the time of the study on policy options to address shortages of critical drugs and to provide recommendations on controversial drugs in the TZD class.Global pharmaceutical pricing models have been so far driven by big life science companies in interaction with governments;the most common models discussed at a global level come from neo classical economic theory with adjustments of market prices,use of differentiated pricing to take into account adjustment of prices with GNPs differences or reference pricing to adjust access to consumers(e.g.in EU countries);other proposals include peak load pricing such as in Telecommunications.However,changes in international relation policies require now additional alternatives and objectives in a multi-stakeholder world for global health policies,the engagement of powerful non-state players,and the role of social medias into politics.In EWG-MCDA meeting at West Attica(Athens,2024),it was proposed to use a C-K design framework to expand policy alternatives,using expansion of the concept space,especially for a cost sharing research agenda;after the recent communications at Euro and ADA conferences in July 2024,this paper proposes some advances for the general framework involving the South and North Hemispheres,and addressing common issues on major diseases such as diabetes.
文摘A new modern resource management method based on economic model is proposed. Giving mathematic description about economic model; analysis different resource scheduling methods based on deadline and budget constrained which present by Buyya, point out shortcoming of Buyya's schedule method. Considerate integrate factor of time and budget, by import a weight coefficient named a , puts forward a new resource schedule method named STPP based on economic models of Buyya. Contrast to old schedule strategy of Buyya through analysis and experiments, STPP policy is more flexible, and is easy to import other new QoS parameters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 62103101)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China(Grant BK20210217)+5 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant 2022M710680)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 62273094)the"Zhishan"Scholars Programs of Southeast Universitythe Fundamental Science(Natural Science)General Program of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(No.21KJB470020)the Open Research Fund of Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Smart Distribution Network,Nanjing Institute of Technology(No.XTCX202102)the Introduced Talents Scientific Research Start-up Fund Project,Nanjing Institute of Technology(No.YKJ202133).
文摘This paper presents a finite-time economic model predictive control(MPC)algorithm that can be used for frequency regulation and optimal load dispatch in multi-area power systems.Economic MPC can be used in a power system to ensure frequency stability,real-time economic optimization,control of the system and optimal load dispatch from it.A generalized terminal penalty term was used,and the finite-time convergence of the system was guaranteed.The effectiveness of the proposed model predictive control algorithm was verified by simulating a power system,which had two areas connected by an AC tie line.The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm.
文摘Tube furnaces are essential and primary energy intensive facilities in petrochemical plants. Operational optimization of furnaces could not only help to improve product quality but also benefit to reduce energy consumption and exhaust emission. Inspired by this idea, this paper presents a composite model predictive control(CMPC)strategy, which, taking advantage of distributed model predictive control architectures, combines tracking nonlinear model predictive control and economic nonlinear model predictive control metrics to keep process running smoothly and optimize operational conditions. The controllers connected with two kinds of communication networks are easy to organize and maintain, and stable to process interferences. A fast solution algorithm combining interior point solvers and Newton's method is accommodated to the CMPC realization, with reasonable CPU computing time and suitable online applications. Simulation for industrial case demonstrates that the proposed approach can ensure stable operations of furnaces, improve heat efficiency, and reduce the emission effectively.
基金funded by National Research Council of Thailand(NRCT)and Khon Kaen University:N42A650291.
文摘The motive of these investigations is to provide the importance and significance of the fractional order(FO)derivatives in the nonlinear environmental and economic(NEE)model,i.e.,FO-NEE model.The dynamics of the NEE model achieves more precise by using the form of the FO derivative.The investigations through the non-integer and nonlinear mathematical form to define the FO-NEE model are also provided in this study.The composition of the FO-NEEmodel is classified into three classes,execution cost of control,system competence of industrial elements and a new diagnostics technical exclusion cost.The mathematical FO-NEE system is numerically studied by using the artificial neural networks(ANNs)along with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation method(ANNs-LMBM).Three different cases using the FO derivative have been examined to present the numerical performances of the FO-NEE model.The data is selected to solve the mathematical FO-NEE system is executed as 70%for training and 15%for both testing and certification.The exactness of the proposed ANNs-LMBM is observed through the comparison of the obtained and the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton database results.To ratify the aptitude,validity,constancy,exactness,and competence of the ANNs-LMBM,the numerical replications using the state transitions,regression,correlation,error histograms and mean square error are also described.
文摘The Macedonian economy gets out relatively little hurt by the global economic crisis not facing with financial crisis, the recession was short-lived, and social crisis emerged in modest sizes. However, the global crisis revealed the major weaknesses of the economic model which was implemented. It turned out that the Macedonian economy is very dependent on the performance of only a few sectors and movements on the prices of its most important export and import products, and that the scope of supply and demand for domestic goods and services is small. These lectures from the economic crisis posed by the need to create a new model for country economic development in the future. The application of historical, statistical, analytical and comparative method shows that Macedonia should exercise other holistic approach in the remodeling of their economy. This means that, besides keeping macroeconomic and financial policy in the future the Macedonian government should act more vigorously in the direction of creating new jobs and provide greater social security. The economic model that we propose in this paper recommends it be done by encouraging small and medium enterprises, diversification of production, encouraging domestic investments, developing human capital, improving infrastructure, encouraging exports and harmonization the macroeconomic instruments. The application of this model will result in increasing investments, industrial production and exports, increasing the competitiveness of domestic products, reducing the trade deficit and maintaining the macroeconomic stability. The general conclusion of the paper is that application of the proposed economic model should lead to realization of two most important goals： achieving lasting, sustainable and significantly higher rates of economic growth and reducing the high rate of unemployment in the country.
基金This work is supported by National Nature Science Foundation （No. 70771021, No. 60821063）.
文摘The Technical Barriers to Trade （TBT） is an important problem faced to the export of China. Based on the number differences of TBT notifications between countries, we propose the concept and computational method of the technical barrier coefficient. By means of price-production and price-demand functions, a trade model with a developed country and a developing country is designed. The available trade policies such as technical barriers, tariffs and export subsidies are simulated and analyzed. According to the simulation results, several trade strategies to come over technical barriers are suggested. These suggestions were provided to several export enterprises for their export strategy design.
文摘The use of mathematical models in economics has long been a subject of debate,particularly regarding the tension between mathematical precision and the unpredictability of human behavior.This paper critically examines the limitations of over-relying on mathematical models to predict economic outcomes,arguing that such models often fail to account for the social,cultural,and psychological factors that drive economic activities.The analysis highlights how attempts to quantify complex economic behaviors may lead to oversimplifications and inaccurate forecasts,as illustrated by past financial crises and market disruptions.The paper concludes by advocating for a more balanced approach that combines mathematical rigor with an understanding of human behavior to enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of economic predictions.
文摘This paper analyzes the factors that influence the development of regional industry cluster, which are location factors, accumulatable factors, and external factors. Then regarding the similarity between the development of industry cluster and biology community, a modified logistic model is built, and a field study is made between the real instances and the model.
文摘Regional economic vitality reflects the scale and development potential of a region’s economy.It largely determines the development of the city,and is also affected by many factors such as population competitiveness,corporate competitiveness,market vitality,innovation vitality,and environmental vitality.A pilot model was constructed with Hebei Province as the inspection area.Quantitative measurement of regional economic vitality was made by finding 21 indicators that indirectly or indirectly affect the economic vitality of Hebei Province.By analyzing the data of 21 indicators for nearly 10 years,the time series clustering is used to achieve the dimensionality reduction of the indicators.After the dimension reduction,it is divided into four categories:overall scale,development potential,market vitality,and innovation vitality.Construct the economic vitality structure model of Hebei Province,and determine the four types of contribution to economic vitality and compare them.On this basis,more accurately grasp the indicators that affect economic vitality and work out reasonable and effective action plans.From the perspective of human resources and corporate vitality,analyze how the action plan accurately affects the economic vitality of Hebei Province[1].The 11 cities in Hebei Province are the target of regional economic vitality.The economic vitality structure model constructed uses the required contribution value to select priority indicators.Finally,the six indicators of GPD,GPD growth rate,fiscal revenue,fiscal revenue growth rate,number of industrial enterprises above designated size,and total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size were established for eleven cities in Hebei Province to construct a TOPSIS scoring model,and calculation rankings were conducted through MATLAB.Results The top three cities were Shijiazhuang,Tangshan and Cangzhou.
