Coordinating urban development with the protection of water resources is a serious global challenge faced by countries worldwide.This study constructed the coupled Water Ecological Security Pattern-Future Land Use Sim...Coordinating urban development with the protection of water resources is a serious global challenge faced by countries worldwide.This study constructed the coupled Water Ecological Security Pattern-Future Land Use Simulation(WESP-FLUS) model by integrating methods for identifying water–ecological sensitive areas and simulating land use type changes.Taking the Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan area in arid region of northwestern China as a case study,this research simulated land use patterns in 2030 under four development scenarios(natural development,urban economic optimization,ecological conservation priority,and urban-water coordinated development scenarios).The results identified 109.81 km^(2) of water–ecological source areas and 43 water–ecological corridors with a total length of 1255.4 km.Predicted land use patterns for 2030 displayed diverse trends,constrained by water–ecological sensitive areas across different scenarios,with urban built-up land mainly expanding radially around the central urban axis.The urban-water coordinated development scenario was the optimal solution that meets both urban development needs and water–ecological protection objectives.The urban built-up land could reach 546.68 km2 in 2030,representing a 91.39 km^(2) increase compared to 2020.This study aims to improve spatial planning methods under the “determining cities by water” concept,scientifically supporting territorial spatial planning and providing theoretical support for the coupling of urban development and natural environment in water-scarce arid regions.展开更多
An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framew...An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framework of SM is developed into the interactively qualitative and quantitative simulation model presented in this paper, which makes it possible to break down a complex urban ecosystem into simple and visual quantitative or qualitative relationships between the factors. By studying the dynamic responses of the system to the changes of the inputs and parameters of the model, future trends in urban development can be predicted and strategies formulated. The whole process is realized on micro-computer in the course of man-computer interaction. Its potential use is shown in a case of Tianjin City.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42471230)。
文摘Coordinating urban development with the protection of water resources is a serious global challenge faced by countries worldwide.This study constructed the coupled Water Ecological Security Pattern-Future Land Use Simulation(WESP-FLUS) model by integrating methods for identifying water–ecological sensitive areas and simulating land use type changes.Taking the Lanzhou-Baiyin metropolitan area in arid region of northwestern China as a case study,this research simulated land use patterns in 2030 under four development scenarios(natural development,urban economic optimization,ecological conservation priority,and urban-water coordinated development scenarios).The results identified 109.81 km^(2) of water–ecological source areas and 43 water–ecological corridors with a total length of 1255.4 km.Predicted land use patterns for 2030 displayed diverse trends,constrained by water–ecological sensitive areas across different scenarios,with urban built-up land mainly expanding radially around the central urban axis.The urban-water coordinated development scenario was the optimal solution that meets both urban development needs and water–ecological protection objectives.The urban built-up land could reach 546.68 km2 in 2030,representing a 91.39 km^(2) increase compared to 2020.This study aims to improve spatial planning methods under the “determining cities by water” concept,scientifically supporting territorial spatial planning and providing theoretical support for the coupling of urban development and natural environment in water-scarce arid regions.
基金It is a part of CERP (Cooperative Ecologioal Research Project) supported by UNESCO.
文摘An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framework of SM is developed into the interactively qualitative and quantitative simulation model presented in this paper, which makes it possible to break down a complex urban ecosystem into simple and visual quantitative or qualitative relationships between the factors. By studying the dynamic responses of the system to the changes of the inputs and parameters of the model, future trends in urban development can be predicted and strategies formulated. The whole process is realized on micro-computer in the course of man-computer interaction. Its potential use is shown in a case of Tianjin City.
