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Characteristics of Temperature Change in China over the Last 2000 years and Spatial Patterns of Dryness/Wetness during Cold and Warm Periods 被引量:11
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作者 Quansheng GE Haolong LIU +2 位作者 Xiang MA Jingyun ZHENG Zhixin HAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2017年第8期941-951,共11页
This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation ... This paper presents new high-resolution proxies and paleoclimatic reconstructions for studying climate changes in China for the past 2000 years. Multi-proxy synthesized reconstructions show that temperature variation in China has exhibited significant 50–70-yr, 100–120-yr, and 200–250-yr cycles. Results also show that the amplitudes of decadal and centennial temperature variation were 1.3℃ and 0.7℃, respectively, with the latter significantly correlated with long-term changes in solar radiation, especially cold periods, which correspond approximately to sunspot minima. The most rapid warming in China occurred over AD 1870–2000, at a rate of 0.56°± 0.42℃(100 yr)^(-1); however, temperatures recorded in the 20 th century may not be unprecedented for the last 2000 years, as data show records for the periods AD 981–1100 and AD1201–70 are comparable to the present. The ensemble means of dryness/wetness spatial patterns in eastern China across all centennial warm periods illustrate a tripole pattern: dry south of 25°N, wet from 25°–30°N, and dry to the north of 30°N. However, for all centennial cold periods, this spatial pattern also exhibits a meridional distribution. The increase in precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China associated with the 20 th century warming can primarily be attributed to a mega El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In addition, a significant association between increasing numbers of locusts and dry/cold conditions is found in eastern China. Plague intensity also generally increases in concert with wetness in northern China, while more precipitation is likely to have a negative effect in southern China. 展开更多
关键词 temperature change dry-wet spatial pattern cold and warm periods last 2000 years China
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EVOLUTION LAW OF DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN KUNMING IN RECENT 300 YEARS
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作者 严华生 谢应齐 +3 位作者 赵筱青 曹杰 周传喜 罗兰仙 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 1998年第2期208-214,共7页
Using indexes of dryness and wetness in historical record over the recent recent years and rainfall data over the tatest century, the work involves itself with the study of climatological evolution of dryness and wetn... Using indexes of dryness and wetness in historical record over the recent recent years and rainfall data over the tatest century, the work involves itself with the study of climatological evolution of dryness and wetness. periodic variations of climate and interannual laws of variation. The discussion also covers the subjects of effects of El Nino. sunspot, predictors of general circulation on climatic variation of dryness and wetness. There arc main conclusions as follows: (1) The main cyclic variations of climate are 40 and 11 years in Kunming. the former being subject to that of El Nino and the latter to that of sunspots. They are two principal factors for periodic variations of dryness and wetness in Kunming. (2) A close relationship exists between interannual variations and general circulation factors for Kunming. The comprehensive influence as imposed by ENSO and allocations of W.C.E. patterns of circulation in the westerly are ma.tor weather and climate causes for the interannual variations of precipitation in Kunming. 展开更多
关键词 DISASTERS by dryness and wetness CLIMATIC VARIATION factors of influence
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FEATURES OF DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCEOVER THE PAST FOUR DECADES
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作者 贺海晏 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 1999年第1期33-42,共10页
Precipitation data from 86 observing Stations for the past four decades (from the first operational use to 1994) are used to study and discuss the character of annually mean distribution in Guangdong. Grades of drynes... Precipitation data from 86 observing Stations for the past four decades (from the first operational use to 1994) are used to study and discuss the character of annually mean distribution in Guangdong. Grades of dryness and wetness on a year-to-year basis are determined and preliminary features of dryness and wetness are discussed for the whole of the province and individual regions according to a 5-grade standard of division. The result has shown that there is on an average a rainfall of 1748 mm per year across the province, with four major centers of maxima (of annual rainfall over 2000 mm) at Enping, Qingyuan, Haifeng and Longmen. For the mean across the province, the years 1959. 1 961. 1973.1975, 1991 are anomalously wet and the years 1956, 1963, 1977 and 1991 are anomalously dry. of them, 1973 is the unusually wet year (with the absolute value of precipitation anomaly over twice as large as the standard deviation) and 1956 and 1963 are the usual dry years. For the occurrence frequency of unusually wetness and dryness over individual river valleys in the province, there are more years of dryness in the valleys of the Xijiang and Dongjiang Rivers. More years of wetness in that of the Jianjiang River, and only years of wetness instead of years of dryness in the valleys of Beijiang and Hanjiang Rivers. 展开更多
关键词 GUANGDONG PRECIPITATION dryness and wetness
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Observed dryness and wetness variability in Shanghai during 1873-2005
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作者 张增信 张强 +2 位作者 张金池 邹兰军 江剑民 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2009年第2期143-152,共10页
Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on monthly precipitation data for 1873-2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and... Dryness and wetness variations on different time scales in Shanghai were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on monthly precipitation data for 1873-2005. The SPI on scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months has been calculated. The SPI on 3, 6, 12 and 24 months present 4 wet periods prevailed during 1873-1885, 1904-1923, 1938-1960 and 1983-2005, and 3 dry episodes during 1886-1903, 1924-1937 and 1961-1982. Significant periods of higher wavelet power in the SPI-24 months occurred on the time scales of 2-7-year band in around 1880-1890, 1910-1950 and 1970-1990, and at 8-15-year band in 1920-1960 and 1965-2000 respectively. Periodicities in the SOl and ENSO indices are similar to those in SPI-24 months with little difference, namely, in the SPI-24 months, there are significant periods at the 2-7- and 8-15-year bands during 1930-1940. The periodicity components in individual SPI-24 months, SOl and ENSO indices are more complicated, showing the wetness and dryness variability in Shanghai is controlled by more than one physical factors. The research results indicate that the Shanghai area has experienced dryness and wetness variability on different time scales during the past 133 years. 展开更多
关键词 dryness and wetness SPI continuous wavelet transform SHANGHAI
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Inspired by Tree Frog:Bionic Design of Tread Pattern and Its Wet Friction Properties 被引量:3
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作者 Donghui Chen Xiao Yang +6 位作者 Menghua Zhong Chong Chen Lihui Wang Jingchun Wang Xiaohui Weng Yinwu Li Zhiyong Chang 《Journal of Bionic Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2022年第4期1064-1076,共13页
The wet grip of tire has always been the focus because it is related to the personal safety of passengers directly.Many methods were employed to improve the wet grip of tire.Researchers paid more attention on bionics ... The wet grip of tire has always been the focus because it is related to the personal safety of passengers directly.Many methods were employed to improve the wet grip of tire.Researchers paid more attention on bionics method recent years.In nature,tree frogs have high adhesion ability in wet environment,which is mainly due to their footpads having fine polygon grooves(mainly hexagon grooves).To improve the performance of wet grip of tire,from the perspective of bionics,inspired by the footpad of tree frog,the bionic hexagon tread pattern was designed.The friction test was carried out to compare with the common tread patterns such as serrated,striped and square patterns.The results showed that the bionic hexagon tread pattern generally had high friction coefficient and directional stability of friction.The main reason was that the hexagon tread block was less affected by the friction-induced torque and the groove of bionic hexagon tread pattern had better drainage characteristic.The bionic hexagon tread pattern provides new idea and method for the design of tires with high wet grip. 展开更多
关键词 Tread pattern wet grip BIONIC Foot pad of tree frog ADHESION wet friction
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Wet flue gas desulfurization performance of 330 MW coal-fired power unit based on computational fluid dynamics region identification of flow pattern and transfer process 被引量:2
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作者 Jiangyuan Qu Nana Qi +2 位作者 Kai Zhang Lifeng Li PengchengWang 《Chinese Journal of Chemical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第1期13-26,共14页
Wet Flue Gas Desulfurization(WFGD)unit based upon spray scrubber has beenwidely employed to control SO_(2) emissions from flue gas in coal-fired power plant.To clarify the dependence of desulfurization performance on ... Wet Flue Gas Desulfurization(WFGD)unit based upon spray scrubber has beenwidely employed to control SO_(2) emissions from flue gas in coal-fired power plant.To clarify the dependence of desulfurization performance on inter-phase transfer behaviors with non-ideal contacting patterns of flue gas and slurry droplets,three regions in spray scrubber are distinguished in terms of gas-slurry flow structures using CFD method in the Eulerian-Lagrangian framework.A comprehensive model is established by involving the transfer process between two phases and chemical reactions in aqueous phase,which is validatedwith the measured data froma WFGD scrubber of 330 MW coal-fired power unit.Numerical results show that the overall uniformity degree of flue gas in whole scrubber is largely determined by the force-balanced droplets in the middle part of scrubber,which is dominated by counter-current mode.Both momentum transfer behavior and SO_(2) chemical absorption process present the synchronicity with the evolution of gas-slurry flow pattern,whilst the heat transfer together with H_(2)O evaporation has little effect on overall absorption process.Three regions are firstly defined as Gas Inlet Region(GIR),Dominant Absorption Region(DAR)and Slurry Dispersed Region(SDR)from the bottom to top of scrubber.SO_(2) is mainly scrubbed in DAR,which provides much more intensive interaction between two phases compared to GIR or SDR.A better understanding of the desulfurization process is obtained from the fundamental relationship between transport phenomena and chemical reactions based upon the complicated hydrodynamics of gas-slurry two-phase flow,which should be useful for designing and optimizing the scrubber in coal-fired power unit. 展开更多
关键词 wet flue gas desulfurization Gas-liquid flow Eulerian-Lagrangian model Flow pattern Transport processes ABSORPTION
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Wet and Dry Tribological Behaviors of Circular Islandic Protrusion Patterns on M2 Steel Discs under Spinning Condition 被引量:1
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作者 马庆贤 董光能 《Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science)》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第5期720-726,共7页
Under spinning conditions, lubricant on islandic spot patterned M2 steel disc experiences centrifugal and tangential force components. Depending upon the relative position of the spots and the flow of lubricant, accum... Under spinning conditions, lubricant on islandic spot patterned M2 steel disc experiences centrifugal and tangential force components. Depending upon the relative position of the spots and the flow of lubricant, accumulation of lubricant in front of patterned islandic spots creates thrusting to mating part and subsequently reduces contact between the mating couple. Whilst wear debris is likely to be spun off the plateau of the spots to their neighbouring valleys so as to reduce wear. Hence, it gives favorable tribological characteristics. Aiming at verifying such mechanisms, studies were performed on M2 steel disc specimens slid with ASSAB 17 tool steel pin. The M2 steel disc specimens were respectively (i) machined with non-patterned (NP), (ii) etched to produce in-lined (INE) islandic patterns, and (iii) etched to produce staggered (STE) islandic spot patterns. Results indicated that the INE patterned discs gave most favorable wear characteristics, the NP of the worse characteristics whilst the STE ranged in the middle. However, the actual contact mechanism leads to the descending sequence of favorable friction behaviors nominally as: NP, INE and STE. 展开更多
关键词 dry and wet lubrication friction and wear circular islandic spot patterns M2 steel disc ASSABI7 steel pin
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Prediction of wetting pattern dimensions under moistube irrigation with a multivariate nonlinear model 被引量:1
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作者 Yan-wei Fan Chong Ren +2 位作者 Zhi-wei Yang Chang-yan Zhang Wei-fan Yin 《Water Science and Engineering》 CSCD 2024年第3期217-225,共9页
Moistube irrigation is a new micro-irrigation technology.Accurately estimating its wetting pattern dimensions presents a challenge.Therefore,it is necessary to develop models for efficient assessment of the wetting tr... Moistube irrigation is a new micro-irrigation technology.Accurately estimating its wetting pattern dimensions presents a challenge.Therefore,it is necessary to develop models for efficient assessment of the wetting transport pattern in order to design a cost-effective moistube irrigation system.To achieve this goal,this study developed a multivariate nonlinear regression model and compared it with a dimensional model.HYDRUS-2D was used to perform numerical simulations of 56 irrigation scenarios with different factors.The experiments showed that the shape of the wetting soil body approximated a cylinder and was mainly affected by soil texture,pressure head,and matric potential.A multivariate nonlinear model using a power function relationship between wetting size and irrigation time was developed,with a determination coefficient greater than 0.99.The model was validated for cases with six soil texture types,with mean average absolute errors of 0.43-0.90 cm,root mean square errors of 0.51-0.95 cm,and mean deviation percentage values of 3.23%-6.27%.The multivariate nonlinear regression model outperformed the dimensional model.It can therefore provide a scientific foundation for the development of moistube irrigation systems. 展开更多
关键词 Moistube irrigation wetting pattern dimensions Multivariate nonlinear regression model Dimensional model HYDRUS-2D
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Consideration on aircraft tire spray when running on wet runways 被引量:3
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作者 Xianpeng ZHANG Fei XU +2 位作者 Xuanqi REN Xiangyang GAO Rengang CAO 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第2期520-528,共9页
The tire spray produced by aircraft running on wet runways may enter the intake of engines,which may lead to the compressor stall,surge,or even combustion flameout.Therefore,it is necessary to do some research work on... The tire spray produced by aircraft running on wet runways may enter the intake of engines,which may lead to the compressor stall,surge,or even combustion flameout.Therefore,it is necessary to do some research work on the tire spray to help to solve this problem.Firstly,the mechanism of tire spray is analyzed,and some parameters are defined to describe the spray pattern.Secondly,the numerical model of tire spray is established by coupled Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics(SPH)and Finite Element Method(FEM)in LS-DYNA software,and the model is validated by a simplified water spray experiment.Then some influence factors on the spray pattern are studied by numerical simulation.Finally,some suggestions are proposed on different types of aircraft to avoid too much tire spray being ingested into the engine intakes. 展开更多
关键词 Aircraft tires Engine ingestion SPH SPRAY pattern wet RUNWAY
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From Self-assembled Monolayers to Chemically Patterned Brushes:Controlling the Orientation of Block Copolymer Domains in Films by Substrate Modification 被引量:3
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作者 Xiao-sa Jin Yuan-yuan Pang 季生象 《Chinese Journal of Polymer Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第6期659-659,660-678,共20页
Block copolymer lithography is emerging as one of the leading technologies for patteming nanoscale dense features. In almost all potential applications of this technology, control over the orientation of cylindrical a... Block copolymer lithography is emerging as one of the leading technologies for patteming nanoscale dense features. In almost all potential applications of this technology, control over the orientation of cylindrical and lamellar domains is required for pattern transfer from the block copolymer film. This review highlights the state-of-art development of brushes to modify the substrates to control the assembly behaviors of block copolymers in films. Selected important contributions to the development of self-assembled monolayers, polymer brushes and mats, and chemically patterned brushes are discussed. 展开更多
关键词 SELF-ASSEMBLY Block copolymer Neutral brush Chemical pattern wetting behavior.
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Fast Spreading of Liquid SnPb Solder on Gold-coated Copper Wheel Pattern 被引量:1
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作者 Wei Liu Lei Zhang +1 位作者 K.J. Hsia J.K. Shang 《Journal of Materials Science & Technology》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2010年第12期1143-1147,共5页
The reactive Sn63Pb37 spreading on patterned film structures was examined in a reducing atmosphere (H2 5%+Ar 95%). Liquid solder spreading was observed to follow the wheel pattern made of Au/Cu thin film. At the ce... The reactive Sn63Pb37 spreading on patterned film structures was examined in a reducing atmosphere (H2 5%+Ar 95%). Liquid solder spreading was observed to follow the wheel pattern made of Au/Cu thin film. At the center, a liquid cap was formed around the hub by viscous spreading of the liquid front. Ahead of the main viscous flow front, a liquid film was found to be extended on thin Au-Cu lines at a fast rate to a great distance by rapid Sn-Au chemical reaction. 展开更多
关键词 wetTING Reactive wetting SPREADING SOLDER Thin film pattern Liquid film
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Latitudinal patterns of climatic variables and influence of local topography on climatic variables in the dry valleys of southwestern China
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作者 LI Xiao-juan LIU Xin +1 位作者 ZHANG Han-yue BAO Wei-kai 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第5期1348-1356,共9页
Climate is a key factor to determine the pattern of ecosystems;however,the latitudinal patterns of climatic variables in the arid and semiarid areas remain largely unclear when compared to humid areas.The topography o... Climate is a key factor to determine the pattern of ecosystems;however,the latitudinal patterns of climatic variables in the arid and semiarid areas remain largely unclear when compared to humid areas.The topography of the dry valleys of southwestern China plays an important role in the formation of climate.However,its impact on the climate remains qualitative.In this study,eight climatic variables from 12 meteorological stations were analyzed to explore their latitudinal patterns in the wet and dry seasons from 1961 to 2019.We also quantified the effects of local topography(RH10)on the climatic variables.The results were as follows:sunshine duration,total solar radiation,average temperature,and evaporation decreased significantly,and wind speed increased significantly with increasing latitude in the annual,wet,and dry seasons(P<0.001).Relative humidity and precipitation decreased significantly with increasing latitude in the wet season(P<0.001),and no obvious change pattern was observed in the dry season.Aridity index significantly decreased(toward dryness)with increasing latitude in the wet season and increased in the dry season(P<0.001).Wind speed had a significantly positive relationship with topography(RH10)(P<0.01),whereas precipitation and aridity index were negatively associated with topography in the wet season and positively associated with topography in the dry season.Dryness was positively associated with RH10 in the wet season,and negatively in the dry season.The results of our research could provide new perspectives for understanding the relationship between topography and drought in the dry valleys of southwestern China. 展开更多
关键词 Latitudinal patterns wet season Dry season Aridity index Local topography
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Statistical Prediction of Wet and Dry Periods in theComahue Region (Argentina)
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作者 Marcela H. González Diana Dominguez 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2012年第1期23-31,共9页
General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than... General features of rainy season with excess or deficits are analyzed using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Limay and Neuquen River basins. Results indicate that most of dry and wet periods persist less than three months in both basins. Furthermore, an increase of rainfall variability over time is observed in the Limay river basin but it is not detected in the Neuquen river basin. There is a tendency for wet (dry) periods to take place in El Ni?o (La Ni?a) years in both basins. Rainfall in both basins, have an important annual cycle with its maximum in winter. In addition, possible causes of extreme rainy seasons over the Limay River Basin are detailed. The main result is that the behavior of low level precipitation systems displacing over the Pacific Ocean in April influences the general hydric situation during the whole rainy season. In order to establish the existence of previous circulation patterns associated with interannual SPI variability, the composite fields of wet and dry years are compared. The result is that rainfall is related to El Ni?o- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and circulation over the Pacific Ocean. The prediction scheme, using multiple linear regressions, showed that 46% of the SPI variance can be explained by this model. The scheme was validated by using a cross-validation method, and significant correlations are detected between observed and forecast SPI. A polynomial model is used and it little improved the linear one, explaining the 49% of the SPI variance. The analysis shows that circulation indicators are useful to predict winter rainfall behavior. 展开更多
关键词 Precipitation South AMERICA wet and Dry PERIODS CIRCULATION patterns Sea Surface Temperature
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基于非对称Copula函数降水径流丰枯遭遇分析
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作者 刘一休 王静文 孙仁豪 《水电能源科学》 北大核心 2025年第4期12-16,共5页
降水径流丰枯遭遇分析为水资源合理配置的基础。鉴于Copula函数能有效刻画水文变量间的相关关系,采用非对称Copula函数建立山东省聊城市降水和黄河高村站径流联合分布模型,采用PSO算法求解Copula函数的参数及权重系数,利用最优Copula函... 降水径流丰枯遭遇分析为水资源合理配置的基础。鉴于Copula函数能有效刻画水文变量间的相关关系,采用非对称Copula函数建立山东省聊城市降水和黄河高村站径流联合分布模型,采用PSO算法求解Copula函数的参数及权重系数,利用最优Copula函数分析降水径流丰枯遭遇。结果表明,以双Frank Copula组成Ⅱ型非对称Copula函数的OLS值、AIC值分别为0.014、-560.995,拟合效果最好;聊城市降水和黄河径流丰枯不同频的概率较大,有较好的水资源互补性;降水径流丰枯同频发生时,同丰同平的概率相对较大,较大量级降水径流有可能遭遇,需加强城市的防洪排涝体系建设。研究成果可为区域水资源优化配置和开展防洪排涝工程建设提供依据。 展开更多
关键词 丰枯遭遇 非对称Copula函数 黄河 聊城市 概率分析
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丰枯水期视角下鄱阳湖区生态安全格局差异性研究
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作者 钱云 肖江 李宝勇 《江西农业大学学报》 北大核心 2025年第3期817-831,共15页
【目的】全球气候变化对湖泊湿地生态安全格局产生巨大影响,鄱阳湖近年来遭受了更为剧烈的水文变化,但既往研究缺乏季节变化下的格局差异及其影响关键地域等的精细解析。旨在探究鄱阳湖季节性水位变化对生态安全格局的影响机制,揭示差... 【目的】全球气候变化对湖泊湿地生态安全格局产生巨大影响,鄱阳湖近年来遭受了更为剧烈的水文变化,但既往研究缺乏季节变化下的格局差异及其影响关键地域等的精细解析。旨在探究鄱阳湖季节性水位变化对生态安全格局的影响机制,揭示差异化区域的生态保护修复需求,为实施动态保护修复提供科学依据。【方法】以鄱阳湖区为研究对象,综合运用生态系统服务和生态敏感性评价方法识别生态源,通过多因子修正阻力面,运用电路理论识别生态廊道、夹点和障碍点,构建两期生态安全格局,划定3类生态过渡区,提出差异化保护策略。【结果】(1)水位变化对鄱阳湖区生态安全格局产生显著影响。丰水期生态源地总面积3 555.23 km^(2),呈“中心集聚”分布;枯水期生态源地总面积减少62%,降至1 366.94 km^(2),转为“一带多点”分布。(2)枯水期生态廊道总长度较丰水期增加1.5倍,覆盖面积扩大25%,但夹点与障碍点数量激增,多分布于非保护区的自然水体和林地,加剧生态网络不稳定性。(3)识别出农田-湿地、水体-湿地和城市-湿地3类过渡区,主要位于已设立的自然保护区内,分别面临农业与渔业生产冲突、航运和挖砂影响及建设侵占等威胁。【结论】揭示了鄱阳湖生态安全格局存在显著季节性分异特征,提出“丰水期强化核心水域保护-枯水期优先修复破碎化源地与廊道-过渡区分类管控”的动态保护策略,为季节性敏感型湖泊湿地适应性管理提供科学路径。 展开更多
关键词 丰枯水期 鄱阳湖区 电路理论 水位变化 生态安全格局
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新形势下南水北调东线工程主要水源来水演变规律及适应性对策 被引量:5
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作者 刘为锋 李云玲 +6 位作者 卢庆文 李昕阳 刘婧 刘奇 陈娟 王永强 郭旭宁 《水资源保护》 北大核心 2025年第2期165-172,192,共9页
基于1980—2020年长系列水文资料,采用多种经典统计方法分析了新形势下南水北调东线工程水源区长江下游、洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖主要水源来水的演变规律。结果表明:除洪泽湖汛期和南四湖下级湖非汛期径流量呈下降趋势、南四湖下... 基于1980—2020年长系列水文资料,采用多种经典统计方法分析了新形势下南水北调东线工程水源区长江下游、洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖主要水源来水的演变规律。结果表明:除洪泽湖汛期和南四湖下级湖非汛期径流量呈下降趋势、南四湖下级湖年径流量无明显变化趋势外,各水源其他时段径流量均呈上升趋势;骆马湖年、汛期径流量在1999年发生显著突变,南四湖下级湖非汛期径流量在2005年发生显著突变;大通站、洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖年径流分别存在14、16、10、13 a的主周期,根据周期规律预测,近期大通站、骆马湖将可能处于径流量偏多期,洪泽湖、南四湖下级湖将可能处于径流量偏少期;相邻水源径流滑动相关系数年际变化大,各相邻水源平均丰枯同步率和异步率分别为41.8%和21.4%。针对主要水源来水演变规律,提出充分利用预报信息调整调水计划、进行水量补偿及库容补偿联合优化调度、探索极端枯水条件下的可调水量潜力等应对策略。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调东线工程 径流 时间序列分析 调水潜力 丰枯遭遇
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调水工程水源区与受水区径流丰枯遭遇研究 被引量:2
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作者 王晓颖 宋培兵 +3 位作者 徐红霞 张峰 王超 孔令仲 《水利水电技术(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第2期125-136,共12页
【目的】分析调水工程水源区和受水区的径流丰枯遭遇特性,可为合理制定调水方案、相机实施工程调水提供科学依据。【方法】以引江济淮工程为例,根据大通站和鲁台子站1956—2022年月径流实测资料,采用相关性系数、标准化径流指数,以及构... 【目的】分析调水工程水源区和受水区的径流丰枯遭遇特性,可为合理制定调水方案、相机实施工程调水提供科学依据。【方法】以引江济淮工程为例,根据大通站和鲁台子站1956—2022年月径流实测资料,采用相关性系数、标准化径流指数,以及构建边缘分布函数和二维Copula函数的联合概率分布模型,描述单站径流丰枯变化和揭示二维径流互补规律。【结果】结果显示:大通站径流和鲁台子站径流在年、丰水期和枯水期时间尺度下均表现出较弱的相关性,对应的Kendall相关系数分别为0.216、0.273和0.227。4—6月为大通站径流的丰水月份,对应的丰水概率为0.313、0.328和0.373;6月、8月则为鲁台子站径流的枯水月份,对应的枯水概率为0.209和0.179。年、丰水期和枯水期对应的径流组合丰枯异步的概率分别为54.5%、52.5%和52.2%;此外,这三个时间尺度下有利于从水源区向受水区调水的概率分别为72.7%、73.7%、73.9%。【结论】Gamma分布可以较好地拟合不同时间尺度下径流的分布特性,Frank Copula、Frank Copula和Clayton Copula分别是大通站和鲁台子站年、丰水期和枯水期径流组合的最优Copula函数;不同时间尺度下径流组合丰枯异步的概率均大于丰枯同步的概率。 展开更多
关键词 径流 调水工程 丰枯遭遇 标准化径流指数 边缘分布 COPULA函数 影响因素
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南水北调东线工程水源区径流丰枯遭遇及转移规律
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作者 叶津辰 陈娟 +4 位作者 付茹萍 郭旭宁 李云玲 邵文伟 钟平安 《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 北大核心 2025年第5期1059-1067,共9页
南水北调东线工程涉及长江(大通站)和五大湖(洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖、南四湖上级湖、东平湖)等水源,研究东线工程水源区径流丰枯遭遇对于南水北调东线工程水资源优化调度具有重要意义。基于大通站与五大湖长系列逐月径流资料,采... 南水北调东线工程涉及长江(大通站)和五大湖(洪泽湖、骆马湖、南四湖下级湖、南四湖上级湖、东平湖)等水源,研究东线工程水源区径流丰枯遭遇对于南水北调东线工程水资源优化调度具有重要意义。基于大通站与五大湖长系列逐月径流资料,采用Copula函数和马尔可夫链方法,分析南水北调东线工程主要水源间的径流丰枯遭遇及转移规律。结果表明:大通站与五大湖径流丰枯异步概率大于0.60,利于实现长江向淮河、黄河流域调水;五大湖相邻湖泊间利于调水概率为0.28~0.37,利于实现湖泊间水量的相互补充。基于五大湖径流丰枯自转移和互转移规律成果,五大湖存在相机补水的互调节机制;以洪泽湖与骆马湖为主,两湖之间的水资源互补表现出灵活性,南水北调东线工程调水计划可据此适时调整。研究成果可为南水北调东线工程的调水时机确定提供理论支持。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调东线工程 径流丰枯遭遇 径流转移规律 COPULA函数 马尔可夫链
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南水北调西线工程不同调水方案下径流丰枯遭遇特征及其对调水的影响
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作者 王智元 刘欢 +4 位作者 胡鹏 王建华 贾仰文 王小辣 王宣宣 《水资源保护》 北大核心 2025年第4期105-114,共10页
为量化评估南水北调西线工程不同调水方案下的径流丰枯遭遇及其影响,聚焦西线工程3种主要调水方案,构建了基于Vine Copula函数的上下线断面径流丰枯联合分布模型,系统分析了各调水方案下的径流丰枯遭遇特征,提出了调水适配度指标,开展... 为量化评估南水北调西线工程不同调水方案下的径流丰枯遭遇及其影响,聚焦西线工程3种主要调水方案,构建了基于Vine Copula函数的上下线断面径流丰枯联合分布模型,系统分析了各调水方案下的径流丰枯遭遇特征,提出了调水适配度指标,开展了不同调水方案下有利调水概率分析,多维度探究了不同调水方案对西线工程整体效果的影响。结果表明:方案1(上线、下线调水量分别为80亿、90亿m^(3))的丰枯同步概率为52.0%,大于异步概率,调水适配度波动较大,为56.3%~66.0%,有利调水概率最低,为62.3%,调水稳定性较差;方案2(上线、下线调水量分别为40亿、130亿m^(3))因断面数量的增加使得丰枯同步概率下降为47.8%,调水适配度和有利调水概率分别为68.3%~74.9%和63.3%,均优于方案1;方案3(下线调水量为170亿m^(3))的丰枯同步概率为50.4%,近似等于丰枯异步概率,调水适配度最大可达76.0%,且波动幅度最小,调水适配性最佳,有利调水概率达69.3%,方案3可更有效利用断面间的径流资源,更有利于保障工程整体的稳定性。 展开更多
关键词 南水北调西线工程 丰枯遭遇 调水适配度 Vine Copula函数
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宁波市地表水资源时空演变规律分析
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作者 张馨予 刘为锋 +1 位作者 张学功 钟平安 《水文》 北大核心 2025年第2期94-99,共6页
宁波市水资源供需矛盾突出,开展宁波市地表水资源时空演变规律研究具有重要意义。将宁波市划分为3个分区,基于1956—2022年地表水资源长系列资料,开展宁波市地表水资源多时间尺度、分单元演变规律分析,在时间尺度上开展了年度、汛期、... 宁波市水资源供需矛盾突出,开展宁波市地表水资源时空演变规律研究具有重要意义。将宁波市划分为3个分区,基于1956—2022年地表水资源长系列资料,开展宁波市地表水资源多时间尺度、分单元演变规律分析,在时间尺度上开展了年度、汛期、非汛期3个时间尺度的趋势性、周期性和突变性分析;在空间尺度上分析了地表水资源空间遭遇规律。结果表明:(1)全市和各分区的地表水资源量枯季上升趋势显著而汛期上升趋势不明显;(2)各分区不同时间尺度的地表水资源量均存在18年的变化周期;(3)全市和各分区非汛期水资源量的上升趋势在1992年前后发生突变;(4)不同分区地表水资源丰枯同步概率均高于异步情况,同步概率平均达到67%;同一分区内部丰枯同步概率超过80%。研究成果可为宁波市水资源规划以及水库群联合优化调度提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 宁波市 地表水资源 演变规律 丰枯遭遇
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