Ukraine,as one of the world’s largest agricultural producers and exporters,plays a critical role in global food security.It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of productive cropland in...Ukraine,as one of the world’s largest agricultural producers and exporters,plays a critical role in global food security.It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of productive cropland in Ukraine,particularly in the context of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.We provide the first comprehensive assessment of both conflict-and non-conflict-related factors that influenced the distribution and productivity of Ukraine’s cropland from 2013 to 2023.In addition,we propose a novel method using machine learning models to isolate the impact of conflict on cropland.Our findings reveal that,prior to the conflict,the spatial pattern of Ukraine’s mean cultivation rate was primarily shaped by natural factors—such as climate,soil properties,and elevation—whereas socio-economic factors(e.g.,GDP and population size)exerted a weaker influence.Interannual dynamics in productive cropland area were largely driven by climate variability.The onset of conflict in 2022 dramatically altered this landscape,with nearly half of the cropland grid cells experiencing a conflict-induced reduction.Notably,almost half of the interannual reduction in productive cropland in 2022 was attributed to climate change.Remarkably,in 2023,the return of displaced populations and favorable climatic conditions in many oblasts contributed to a positive trend in cropland reclamation.Despite this,the total area of productive cropland in 2023 remained below expected levels,due to ongoing conflict and localized droughts.Finally,we highlight the urgent need to adopt a two-pronged approach that addresses both the immediate impacts of conflict and the ongoing threats posed by climate change to ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems in post-conflict areas.展开更多
Association rule mining methods, as a set of important data mining tools, could be used for mining spatial association rules of spatial data. However, applications of these methods are limited for mining results conta...Association rule mining methods, as a set of important data mining tools, could be used for mining spatial association rules of spatial data. However, applications of these methods are limited for mining results containing large number of redundant rules. In this paper, a new method named Geo-Filtered Association Rules Mining(GFARM) is proposed to effectively eliminate the redundant rules. An application of GFARM is performed as a case study in which association rules are discovered between building land distribution and potential driving factors in Wuhan, China from 1995 to 2015. Ten sets of regular sampling grids with different sizes are used for detecting the influence of multi-scales on GFARM. Results show that the proposed method can filter 50%–70% of redundant rules. GFARM is also successful in discovering spatial association pattern between building land distribution and driving factors.展开更多
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.41971284 and 42371321)the Key Research and Development Program of Hubei Province(Grant No.2025BAB024).
文摘Ukraine,as one of the world’s largest agricultural producers and exporters,plays a critical role in global food security.It is essential to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics and drivers of productive cropland in Ukraine,particularly in the context of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict.We provide the first comprehensive assessment of both conflict-and non-conflict-related factors that influenced the distribution and productivity of Ukraine’s cropland from 2013 to 2023.In addition,we propose a novel method using machine learning models to isolate the impact of conflict on cropland.Our findings reveal that,prior to the conflict,the spatial pattern of Ukraine’s mean cultivation rate was primarily shaped by natural factors—such as climate,soil properties,and elevation—whereas socio-economic factors(e.g.,GDP and population size)exerted a weaker influence.Interannual dynamics in productive cropland area were largely driven by climate variability.The onset of conflict in 2022 dramatically altered this landscape,with nearly half of the cropland grid cells experiencing a conflict-induced reduction.Notably,almost half of the interannual reduction in productive cropland in 2022 was attributed to climate change.Remarkably,in 2023,the return of displaced populations and favorable climatic conditions in many oblasts contributed to a positive trend in cropland reclamation.Despite this,the total area of productive cropland in 2023 remained below expected levels,due to ongoing conflict and localized droughts.Finally,we highlight the urgent need to adopt a two-pronged approach that addresses both the immediate impacts of conflict and the ongoing threats posed by climate change to ensure the resilience and sustainability of agricultural systems in post-conflict areas.
基金Under the auspices of Special Fund of Ministry of Land and Resources of China in Public Interest(No.201511001)
文摘Association rule mining methods, as a set of important data mining tools, could be used for mining spatial association rules of spatial data. However, applications of these methods are limited for mining results containing large number of redundant rules. In this paper, a new method named Geo-Filtered Association Rules Mining(GFARM) is proposed to effectively eliminate the redundant rules. An application of GFARM is performed as a case study in which association rules are discovered between building land distribution and potential driving factors in Wuhan, China from 1995 to 2015. Ten sets of regular sampling grids with different sizes are used for detecting the influence of multi-scales on GFARM. Results show that the proposed method can filter 50%–70% of redundant rules. GFARM is also successful in discovering spatial association pattern between building land distribution and driving factors.
