In this paper we consider the arrival process of a multiserver queue governed by a discrete autoregressive process of order 1 [DAR(1)] with Quasi-Negative Binomial Distribution-II as the marginal distribution. This di...In this paper we consider the arrival process of a multiserver queue governed by a discrete autoregressive process of order 1 [DAR(1)] with Quasi-Negative Binomial Distribution-II as the marginal distribution. This discrete time multiserver queueing system with autoregressive arrivals is more suitable for modeling the Asynchronous Transfer Mode(ATM) multiplexer queue with Variable Bit Rate (VBR) coded teleconference traffic. DAR(1) is described by a few parameters and it is easy to match the probability distribution and the decay rate of the autocorrelation function with those of measured real traffic. For this queueing system we obtained the stationary distribution of the system size and the waiting time distribution of an arbitrary packet with the help of matrix analytic methods and the theory of Markov regenerative processes. Also we consider negative binomial distribution, generalized Poisson distribution, Borel-Tanner distribution defined by Frank and Melvin(1960) and zero truncated generalized Poisson distribution as the special cases of Quasi-Negative Binomial Distribution-II. Finally, we developed computer programmes for the simulation and empirical study of the effect of autocorrelation function of input traffic on the stationary distribution of the system size as well as waiting time of an arbitrary packet. The model is applied to a real data of number of customers waiting for checkout in an airport and it is established that the model well suits this data.展开更多
Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for the generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distribution also known as Variance gamma using simplex direct search algorithms is investigated. In this paper, we use numerical direct ...Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for the generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distribution also known as Variance gamma using simplex direct search algorithms is investigated. In this paper, we use numerical direct search techniques for maximizing the log-likelihood to obtain ML estimators instead of using the traditional EM algorithm. The density function of the GAL is only continuous but not differentiable with respect to the parameters and the appearance of the Bessel function in the density make it difficult to obtain the asymptotic covariance matrix for the entire GAL family. Using M-estimation theory, the properties of the ML estimators are investigated in this paper. The ML estimators are shown to be consistent for the GAL family and their asymptotic normality can only be guaranteed for the asymmetric Laplace (AL) family. The asymptotic covariance matrix is obtained for the AL family and it completes the results obtained previously in the literature. For the general GAL model, alternative methods of inferences based on quadratic distances (QD) are proposed. The QD methods appear to be overall more efficient than likelihood methods infinite samples using sample sizes n ≤5000 and the range of parameters often encountered for financial data. The proposed methods only require that the moment generating function of the parametric model exists and has a closed form expression and can be used for other models.展开更多
Background: The Chapman-Richards distribution is developed as a special case of the equilibrium solution to the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation. The Chapman-Richards distribution incorporates the vital rate assumptio...Background: The Chapman-Richards distribution is developed as a special case of the equilibrium solution to the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation. The Chapman-Richards distribution incorporates the vital rate assumptions of the Chapman-Richards growth function, constant mortality and recruitment into the mathematical form of the distribution. Therefore, unlike 'assumed' distribution models, it is intrinsically linked with the underlying vital rates for the forest area under consideration. Methods: It is shown that the Chapman-Richards distribution can be recast as a subset of the generalized beta distribution of the first kind, a rich family of assumed probability distribution models with known properties. These known properties for the generalized beta are then immediately available for the Chapman-Richards distribution, such as the form of the compatible basal area-size distribution. A simple two-stage procedure is proposed for the estimation of the model parameters and simulation experiments are conducted to validate the procedure for four different possible distribution shapes. Results: The simulations explore the efficacy of the two-stage estimation procedure;these cover the estimation of the growth equation and mortality-recruitment derives from the equilibrium assumption. The parameter estimates are shown to depend on both the sample size and the amount of noise imparted to the synthetic measurements. The results vary somewhat by distribution shape, with the smaller, noisier samples providing less reliable estimates of the vital rates and final distribution forms. Conclusions: The Chapman-Richards distribution in its original form, or recast as a generalized beta form, presents a potentially useful model integrating vital rates and stand diameters into a flexible family of resultant distributions shapes. The data requirements are modest, and parameter estimation is straightforward provided the minimal recommended sample sizes are obtained.展开更多
This paper presents a binary gravitational search algorithm (BGSA) is applied to solve the problem of optimal allotment of DG sets and Shunt capacitors in radial distribution systems. The problem is formulated as a no...This paper presents a binary gravitational search algorithm (BGSA) is applied to solve the problem of optimal allotment of DG sets and Shunt capacitors in radial distribution systems. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear constrained single-objective optimization problem where the total line loss (TLL) and the total voltage deviations (TVD) are to be minimized separately by incorporating optimal placement of DG units and shunt capacitors with constraints which include limits on voltage, sizes of installed capacitors and DG. This BGSA is applied on the balanced IEEE 10 Bus distribution network and the results are compared with conventional binary particle swarm optimization.展开更多
A great concern for the modern distribution grid is how well it can withstand and respond to adverse conditions. One way that utilities are addressing this issue is by adding redundancy to their systems. Likewise, dis...A great concern for the modern distribution grid is how well it can withstand and respond to adverse conditions. One way that utilities are addressing this issue is by adding redundancy to their systems. Likewise, distributed generation (DG) is becoming an increasingly popular asset at the distribution level and the idea of microgrids operating as standalone systems apart from the bulk electric grid is quickly becoming a reality. This allows for greater flexibility as systems can now take on exponentially more configurations than the radial, one-way distribution systems of the past. These added capabilities, however, make the system reconfiguration with a much more complex problem causing utilities to question if they are operating their distribution systems optimally. In addition, tools like Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Distribution Automation (DA) allow for systems to be reconfigured faster than humans can make decisions on how to reconfigure them. As a result, this paper seeks to develop an automated partitioning scheme for distribution systems that can respond to varying system conditions while ensuring a variety of operational constraints on the final configuration. It uses linear programming and graph theory. Power flow is calculated externally to the LP and a feedback loop is used to recalculate the solution if a violation is found. Application to test systems shows that it can reconfigure systems containing any number of loops resulting in a radial configuration. It can connect multiple sources to a single microgrid if more capacity is needed to supply the microgrid’s load.展开更多
The characteristics of low permeability reservoirs and distribution of sweet spots in the Oligocene Zhuhai Formation of Wenchang A sag, Pearl River Basin were investigated by core observation and thin section analysis...The characteristics of low permeability reservoirs and distribution of sweet spots in the Oligocene Zhuhai Formation of Wenchang A sag, Pearl River Basin were investigated by core observation and thin section analysis. The study results show that there develop the fine, medium and coarse sandstone reservoirs of tidal flat–fan delta facies, which are of mostly low permeability and locally medium permeability. There are two kinds of pore evolution patterns: oil charging first and densification later, the reservoirs featuring this pattern are mainly in the third member of Zhuhai Formation between the south fault zone and the sixth fault zone, and the pattern of densification first and gas charging later is widespread across the study area. Strong compaction and local calcium cementation are the key factors causing low permeability of the reservoirs in the Zhuhai Formation. Thick and coarse grain sand sedimentary body is the precondition to form "sweet spot" reservoirs. Weak compaction and cementation, dissolution, early hydrocarbon filling and authigenic chlorite coating are the main factors controlling formation of "sweet spot" reservoir. It is predicted that there develop between the south fault and sixth fault zones the Class Ⅰ "sweet spot" in medium compaction zone, Class Ⅱ "sweet spot" in nearly strong compaction zone, Class Ⅲ "sweet spot" reservoir in the nearly strong to strong compaction zone with oil charging at early stage, and Class IV "sweet spot" reservoir in the strong compaction and authigenic chlorite coating protection zone in the sixth fault zone.展开更多
The mountainous and hilly region plays an important role in ecological safety and production in China. However, recent studies have poorly characterized the parallel structure of land use in the valleys of the mountai...The mountainous and hilly region plays an important role in ecological safety and production in China. However, recent studies have poorly characterized the parallel structure of land use in the valleys of the mountainous and hilly region using topographic factors(e.g.elevation, slope, aspect). Here, the loess hilly region of northern Shaanxi Province is used as a representative case area to analyze the vertical distribution pattern of land-use conversion using the relative elevation concept and the HAND index. The differences in the vertical structure of land-use conversion between absolute elevation and relative elevation were compared. We found that the classifications of absolute and relative elevation had similar proportions of each relative elevation grade in each absolute elevation grade. Cropland,woodland, and grassland were distributed evenly in each grade of absolute/relative elevation,while water body, built-up land and unused land were more likely to spread in low grades of relative elevation than those of absolute elevation. The land-use conversion(i.e. loss of cropland and gain in woodland and built-up land) showed an apparently stepped distribution with relative elevation classification, suitable for revealing vertical distributions of land-use conversion in the loess hilly region. Cropland transformed to woodland was mainly distributed in high grade of relative elevation, decreasing with a decrease in grades, while built-up land transformed from cropland and grassland was mainly distributed in low grade of relative elevation, decreasing with increases in grades. The grade of relative elevation where cropland transformed to woodland descended with the implementation of the Grain for Green Project. Our results suggest that it is better to analyze the vertical distribution of land-use conversion with relative elevation classification in hilly regions.展开更多
The importance of dissolved organic phosphorus(DOP) as a potential nutrient source for primary producers in marine systems has been recognized for up to eight decades, but currently, the understanding of the biogeoche...The importance of dissolved organic phosphorus(DOP) as a potential nutrient source for primary producers in marine systems has been recognized for up to eight decades, but currently, the understanding of the biogeochemistry of DOP is in its infancy. In the present study, monthly data between 2000 and 2014 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distributions of DOP in the Mir Bay, the northern South China Sea. The DOP residence time(TDOP) was also investigated using a simple regression analysis in combination with chlorophyll a(Chl a) measurements while excess DOP(ΔDOP), produced by the biogeochemical processes of autotrophic production and heterotrophic removal, was determined using a two-component mixing mass-balance model in combination with salinity measurements. The results showed that the DOP concentration was(0.017±0.010) mg/L higher in the surface-water compared with the bottom-water and higher in the inner Tolo Harbour and waters adjacent to Shatoujiao compared with the main zone of the bay. Although seasonal changes and annual variability in the DOP were small, the surface DOP concentration was higher in the wet season(April–September)than in the dry season(October–March) due to the impacts of seaward discharges and atmospheric deposition into the bay. Measurement and regression results showed that the DOP release rate from phytoplankton production was about 1.83(gP)/(gChl a) and the TDOP was about 7 d, which implied that the DOP cycle in the bay was rapid. The ΔDOP was calculated from the model to be about 0.000 mg/L in the main zone of the bay and about 0.002 mg/L in the inner Tolo Harbour and waters adjacent to Shaotoujiao, suggesting that the autotrophic production of DOP was almost balanced by the heterotrophic removal in the main zone of the bay and dominated in the inner Tolo Harbour and waters adjacent to Shaotoujiao. In conclusion, the Mirs Bay is very productive and fairly heterotrophic.展开更多
Statistical analysis of lifetime data is a significant topic in social sciences, engineering, reliability, biomedical and others. We use the generalized weighted exponential distribution, as a generator to introduce a...Statistical analysis of lifetime data is a significant topic in social sciences, engineering, reliability, biomedical and others. We use the generalized weighted exponential distribution, as a generator to introduce a new family called generalized weighted exponential-G family, and apply this new generator to provide a new distribution called generalized weighted exponential gombertez distribution. We investigate some of its properties, moment generating function, moments, conditional moments, mean residual lifetime, mean inactivity time, strong mean inactivity time, Rényi entropy, Lorenz curves and Bonferroni. Furthermore, in this model, we estimate the parameters by using maximum likelihood method. We apply this model to a real data-set to show that the new generated distribution can produce a better fit than other classical lifetime models.展开更多
We consider a problem from stock market modeling, precisely, choice of adequate distribution of modeling extremal behavior of stock market data. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto (GP)...We consider a problem from stock market modeling, precisely, choice of adequate distribution of modeling extremal behavior of stock market data. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution are the classical distributions for this problem. However, from 2004, [1] and many other researchers have been empirically showing that generalized logistic (GL) distribution is a better model than GEV and GP distributions in modeling extreme movement of stock market data. In this paper, we show that these results are not accidental. We prove the theoretical importance of GL distribution in extreme value modeling. For proving this, we introduce a general multivariate limit theorem and deduce some important multivariate theorems in probability as special cases. By using the theorem, we derive a limit theorem in extreme value theory, where GL distribution plays central role instead of GEV distribution. The proof of this result is parallel to the proof of classical extremal types theorem, in the sense that, it possess important characteristic in classical extreme value theory, for e.g. distributional property, stability, convergence and multivariate extension etc.展开更多
Estimation for the parameters of the generalized logistic distribution (GLD) is obtained based on record statistics from a Bayesian and non-Bayesian approach. The Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in explicit forms....Estimation for the parameters of the generalized logistic distribution (GLD) is obtained based on record statistics from a Bayesian and non-Bayesian approach. The Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in explicit forms. So the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used for computing the Bayes estimates. Point estimation and confidence intervals based on maximum likelihood and the parametric bootstrap methods are proposed for estimating the unknown parameters. A numerical example has been analyzed for illustrative purposes. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.展开更多
This paper deals with Bayesian inference and prediction problems of the Burr type XII distribution based on progressive first failure censored data. We consider the Bayesian inference under a squared error loss functi...This paper deals with Bayesian inference and prediction problems of the Burr type XII distribution based on progressive first failure censored data. We consider the Bayesian inference under a squared error loss function. We propose to apply Gibbs sampling procedure to draw Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, and they have in turn, been used to compute the Bayes estimates with the help of importance sampling technique. We have performed a simulation study in order to compare the proposed Bayes estimators with the maximum likelihood estimators. We further consider two sample Bayes prediction to predicting future order statistics and upper record values from Burr type XII distribution based on progressive first failure censored data. The predictive densities are obtained and used to determine prediction intervals for unobserved order statistics and upper record values. A real life data set is used to illustrate the results derived.展开更多
The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of lithium chloride (LiCl) on the fibre length distribution, melting temperature and the rheological characteristics of high yield pulp fibre reinforced polyamide bio...The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of lithium chloride (LiCl) on the fibre length distribution, melting temperature and the rheological characteristics of high yield pulp fibre reinforced polyamide biocomposite. The inorganic salt lithium chloride (LiCl) was used to decrease the melting and processing temperature of bio-based polyamide 11. The extrusion method and Brabender mixer approaches were used to carry out the compounding process. The densities and fibre content were found to be increased after processing using both compounding methods. The HYP fibre length distribution analysis realized using the FQA equipment showed an important fibre-length reduction after processing by both techniques. The rheological properties of HYP-reinforced net and modified bio-based polyamide 11 “PA11” (HYP/PA11) composite were investigated using a capillary rheometer. The rheological tests were performed in function of the shear rate for different temperature conditions. The low-temperature process compounding had higher shear viscosity;this was because during the process the temperature was low and the mixing and melting were induced by the high shear rate created during compounding process. Experimental test results using the extrusion process showed a steep decrease in shear viscosity with increasing shear rate, and this melt-flow characteristic corresponds to shear-thinning behavior in HYP/PA11, and this steep decrease in the melt viscosity can be associated to the hydrolyse reaction of nylon for high pulp fibre moisture content at high temperature. In addition to the low processing temperature, the melt viscosity of the biocomposite using the Brabender mixer approach increases with increasing shear rate, and this stability in the increase even at high shear rate for high pulp moisture content is associated to the presence of inorganic salt lithium chloride which creates the hydrogen bonds with pulp during the compounding process.展开更多
AIM: To compare the racial differences of anatomical distribution of colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine the association of age, gender and time with anatomical distribution between patients from America (white) and...AIM: To compare the racial differences of anatomical distribution of colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine the association of age, gender and time with anatomical distribution between patients from America (white) and China (oriental).METHODS: Data was collected from 690 consecutive patients in Cleveland Clinic Florida, U.S.A. and 870consecutive patients in Nan Fang Hospital affiliated to the First Military Medical University, China over the past 11years from 1990 to 2000. All patients had colorectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed by histology and underwent surgery.RESULTS: The anatomical subsite distribution of tumor,age and gender were significantly different between white and oriental patients. Lesions in the proximal colon (P＜0.001) were found in 36.3 % of white vs 26.0 % of oriental patients and cancers located in the distal colon and rectum in 63.7 % of white and 74 % of oriental patients (P＜0.001). There was a trend towards the redistribution from distal colon and rectum to proximal colon in white males over time, especially in older patients (＞80 years).No significant change of anatomical distribution occurred in white women and Oriental patients. The mean age at diagnosis was 69.0 years in white patients and 48.3 years in Oriental patients (P＜0.001).CONCLUSION: This is the first study comparing the anatomical distribution of colorectal cancers in whites and Chinese patients. White Americans have a higher risk of proximal CRC and this risk increased with time. The proportion of white males with CRC also increased with time.Chinese patients were more likely to have distal CRC and developed the disease at a significantly earlier age than white patients. These findings have enhanced our understanding of the disease process of colorectal cancer in these two races.展开更多
This article introduces a three-parameter Lehman-type t distribution having 2 degrees of freedom,that is capable of fitting positive and negative skewed data sets.It is shown that the density and hazard functions of t...This article introduces a three-parameter Lehman-type t distribution having 2 degrees of freedom,that is capable of fitting positive and negative skewed data sets.It is shown that the density and hazard functions of the proposed distribution are uni-model.Ordinary moments,entropy measure,ordering,identifiability and order statistics are investigated.Since the quantile function is explicitly defined,quantile-based statistics are also discussed for the proposed distribution.These properties include measures of skewness and kurtosis,L-moments,quantile density and hazard functions,mean residual life function and Parzen's score function.Mechanisms of maximum likelihood,bias correction and matching of percentiles are employed for estimating the unknown parameters of the distribution.Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the performance of these three estimation methods.A real-life data set consisting of strength of glass fibres is fitted to show the adequacy of the proposed distribution over some extensions of the normal and t distributions.Parametric regression model is developed along with its parameter estimation using the maximum likelihood approach.Simulation study for the regression model is also presented that endorsed the asymptotic properties of the estimators.展开更多
The modified suction caisson(MSC) is a novel type of foundation for ocean engineering, consisting of a short external closed-top cylinder-shaped structure surrounding the upper part of the regular suction caisson(RSC)...The modified suction caisson(MSC) is a novel type of foundation for ocean engineering, consisting of a short external closed-top cylinder-shaped structure surrounding the upper part of the regular suction caisson(RSC). The MSC can provide larger lateral bearing capacity and limit the deflection compared with the RSC. Therefore, the MSC can be much more appropriate to use as an offshore wind turbine foundation. Model tests on the MSC in saturated sand subjected to monotonic lateral loading were carried out to investigate the effects of external structure sizes on the sand surface deformation and the earth pressure distribution along the embedded depth. Test results show that the deformation range of the sand surface increases with the increasing width and length of the external structure. The magnitude of sand upheaval around the MSC is smaller than that of the RSC and the sand upheaval value around the MSC in the loading direction decreases with the increasing external structure dimensions. The net earth pressure in the loading direction acting on the internal compartment of the MSC is smaller than that of the RSC at the same embedded depth. The maximum net earth pressure acting on the external structure outer wall in the loading direction is larger than that of the internal compartment, indicating that a considerable amount of the lateral load and moment is resisted by the external skirt structure.展开更多
Using the Feynman's path integral with topological constraints arising from the presence of one singular line, we find the homotopic probability distribution PnL for the winding number n and the partition function...Using the Feynman's path integral with topological constraints arising from the presence of one singular line, we find the homotopic probability distribution PnL for the winding number n and the partition function PL of the entangled system around a ribbon segment chain. We find that when the width of the ribbon segment chain 2a increases,the partition function exponentially decreases, whereas the free energy increases an amount, which is proportional to the square of the width. When the width tends to zero we obtain the same results as those of a single chain with one singular point.展开更多
The classical power law relaxation, i.e. relaxation of current with inverse of power of time for a step-voltage excitation to dielectric—as popularly known as Curie-von Schweidler law is empirically derived and is ob...The classical power law relaxation, i.e. relaxation of current with inverse of power of time for a step-voltage excitation to dielectric—as popularly known as Curie-von Schweidler law is empirically derived and is observed in several relaxation experiments on various dielectrics studies since late 19th Century. This relaxation law is also regarded as “universal-law” for dielectric relaxations;and is also termed as power law. This empirical Curie-von Schewidler relaxation law is then used to derive fractional differential equations describing constituent expression for capacitor. In this paper, we give simple mathematical treatment to derive the distribution of relaxation rates of this Curie-von Schweidler law, and show that the relaxation rate follows Zipf’s power law distribution. We also show the method developed here give Zipfian power law distribution for relaxing time constants. Then we will show however mathematically correct this may be, but physical interpretation from the obtained time constants distribution are contradictory to the Zipfian rate relaxation distribution. In this paper, we develop possible explanation that as to why Zipfian distribution of relaxation rates appears for Curie-von Schweidler Law, and relate this law to time variant rate of relaxation. In this paper, we derive appearance of fractional derivative while using Zipfian power law distribution that gives notion of scale dependent relaxation rate function for Curie-von Schweidler relaxation phenomena. This paper gives analytical approach to get insight of a non-Debye relaxation and gives a new treatment to especially much used empirical Curie-von Schweidler (universal) relaxation law.展开更多
We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. E...We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. Expressions are obtained for higher order equilibrium distribution functions under mixtures and convolutions of a counting distribution. Recursive formulas for higher order equilibrium distribution functions of the (a,b,0) -family of distributions are given.展开更多
文摘In this paper we consider the arrival process of a multiserver queue governed by a discrete autoregressive process of order 1 [DAR(1)] with Quasi-Negative Binomial Distribution-II as the marginal distribution. This discrete time multiserver queueing system with autoregressive arrivals is more suitable for modeling the Asynchronous Transfer Mode(ATM) multiplexer queue with Variable Bit Rate (VBR) coded teleconference traffic. DAR(1) is described by a few parameters and it is easy to match the probability distribution and the decay rate of the autocorrelation function with those of measured real traffic. For this queueing system we obtained the stationary distribution of the system size and the waiting time distribution of an arbitrary packet with the help of matrix analytic methods and the theory of Markov regenerative processes. Also we consider negative binomial distribution, generalized Poisson distribution, Borel-Tanner distribution defined by Frank and Melvin(1960) and zero truncated generalized Poisson distribution as the special cases of Quasi-Negative Binomial Distribution-II. Finally, we developed computer programmes for the simulation and empirical study of the effect of autocorrelation function of input traffic on the stationary distribution of the system size as well as waiting time of an arbitrary packet. The model is applied to a real data of number of customers waiting for checkout in an airport and it is established that the model well suits this data.
文摘Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for the generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distribution also known as Variance gamma using simplex direct search algorithms is investigated. In this paper, we use numerical direct search techniques for maximizing the log-likelihood to obtain ML estimators instead of using the traditional EM algorithm. The density function of the GAL is only continuous but not differentiable with respect to the parameters and the appearance of the Bessel function in the density make it difficult to obtain the asymptotic covariance matrix for the entire GAL family. Using M-estimation theory, the properties of the ML estimators are investigated in this paper. The ML estimators are shown to be consistent for the GAL family and their asymptotic normality can only be guaranteed for the asymmetric Laplace (AL) family. The asymptotic covariance matrix is obtained for the AL family and it completes the results obtained previously in the literature. For the general GAL model, alternative methods of inferences based on quadratic distances (QD) are proposed. The QD methods appear to be overall more efficient than likelihood methods infinite samples using sample sizes n ≤5000 and the range of parameters often encountered for financial data. The proposed methods only require that the moment generating function of the parametric model exists and has a closed form expression and can be used for other models.
基金partially supported by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture,Mc Intire Stennis Project OKL0 3063the Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources at Oklahoma State Universityprovided by the USDA Forest Service,Research Joint Venture 17-JV-11242306045,Old-Growth Forest Dynamics and Structure,to Mark Ducey
文摘Background: The Chapman-Richards distribution is developed as a special case of the equilibrium solution to the McKendrick-Von Foerster equation. The Chapman-Richards distribution incorporates the vital rate assumptions of the Chapman-Richards growth function, constant mortality and recruitment into the mathematical form of the distribution. Therefore, unlike 'assumed' distribution models, it is intrinsically linked with the underlying vital rates for the forest area under consideration. Methods: It is shown that the Chapman-Richards distribution can be recast as a subset of the generalized beta distribution of the first kind, a rich family of assumed probability distribution models with known properties. These known properties for the generalized beta are then immediately available for the Chapman-Richards distribution, such as the form of the compatible basal area-size distribution. A simple two-stage procedure is proposed for the estimation of the model parameters and simulation experiments are conducted to validate the procedure for four different possible distribution shapes. Results: The simulations explore the efficacy of the two-stage estimation procedure;these cover the estimation of the growth equation and mortality-recruitment derives from the equilibrium assumption. The parameter estimates are shown to depend on both the sample size and the amount of noise imparted to the synthetic measurements. The results vary somewhat by distribution shape, with the smaller, noisier samples providing less reliable estimates of the vital rates and final distribution forms. Conclusions: The Chapman-Richards distribution in its original form, or recast as a generalized beta form, presents a potentially useful model integrating vital rates and stand diameters into a flexible family of resultant distributions shapes. The data requirements are modest, and parameter estimation is straightforward provided the minimal recommended sample sizes are obtained.
文摘This paper presents a binary gravitational search algorithm (BGSA) is applied to solve the problem of optimal allotment of DG sets and Shunt capacitors in radial distribution systems. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear constrained single-objective optimization problem where the total line loss (TLL) and the total voltage deviations (TVD) are to be minimized separately by incorporating optimal placement of DG units and shunt capacitors with constraints which include limits on voltage, sizes of installed capacitors and DG. This BGSA is applied on the balanced IEEE 10 Bus distribution network and the results are compared with conventional binary particle swarm optimization.
文摘A great concern for the modern distribution grid is how well it can withstand and respond to adverse conditions. One way that utilities are addressing this issue is by adding redundancy to their systems. Likewise, distributed generation (DG) is becoming an increasingly popular asset at the distribution level and the idea of microgrids operating as standalone systems apart from the bulk electric grid is quickly becoming a reality. This allows for greater flexibility as systems can now take on exponentially more configurations than the radial, one-way distribution systems of the past. These added capabilities, however, make the system reconfiguration with a much more complex problem causing utilities to question if they are operating their distribution systems optimally. In addition, tools like Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) and Distribution Automation (DA) allow for systems to be reconfigured faster than humans can make decisions on how to reconfigure them. As a result, this paper seeks to develop an automated partitioning scheme for distribution systems that can respond to varying system conditions while ensuring a variety of operational constraints on the final configuration. It uses linear programming and graph theory. Power flow is calculated externally to the LP and a feedback loop is used to recalculate the solution if a violation is found. Application to test systems shows that it can reconfigure systems containing any number of loops resulting in a radial configuration. It can connect multiple sources to a single microgrid if more capacity is needed to supply the microgrid’s load.
基金Supported by the China National Science and Technology Major Project(2016ZX05024-006)Research Project of China National Offshore Oil Corporation(CNOOC-KJ125ZDXM07LTD02ZJ11)
文摘The characteristics of low permeability reservoirs and distribution of sweet spots in the Oligocene Zhuhai Formation of Wenchang A sag, Pearl River Basin were investigated by core observation and thin section analysis. The study results show that there develop the fine, medium and coarse sandstone reservoirs of tidal flat–fan delta facies, which are of mostly low permeability and locally medium permeability. There are two kinds of pore evolution patterns: oil charging first and densification later, the reservoirs featuring this pattern are mainly in the third member of Zhuhai Formation between the south fault zone and the sixth fault zone, and the pattern of densification first and gas charging later is widespread across the study area. Strong compaction and local calcium cementation are the key factors causing low permeability of the reservoirs in the Zhuhai Formation. Thick and coarse grain sand sedimentary body is the precondition to form "sweet spot" reservoirs. Weak compaction and cementation, dissolution, early hydrocarbon filling and authigenic chlorite coating are the main factors controlling formation of "sweet spot" reservoir. It is predicted that there develop between the south fault and sixth fault zones the Class Ⅰ "sweet spot" in medium compaction zone, Class Ⅱ "sweet spot" in nearly strong compaction zone, Class Ⅲ "sweet spot" reservoir in the nearly strong to strong compaction zone with oil charging at early stage, and Class IV "sweet spot" reservoir in the strong compaction and authigenic chlorite coating protection zone in the sixth fault zone.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2017YFC0504701National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41801175Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China,No.2018M631558
文摘The mountainous and hilly region plays an important role in ecological safety and production in China. However, recent studies have poorly characterized the parallel structure of land use in the valleys of the mountainous and hilly region using topographic factors(e.g.elevation, slope, aspect). Here, the loess hilly region of northern Shaanxi Province is used as a representative case area to analyze the vertical distribution pattern of land-use conversion using the relative elevation concept and the HAND index. The differences in the vertical structure of land-use conversion between absolute elevation and relative elevation were compared. We found that the classifications of absolute and relative elevation had similar proportions of each relative elevation grade in each absolute elevation grade. Cropland,woodland, and grassland were distributed evenly in each grade of absolute/relative elevation,while water body, built-up land and unused land were more likely to spread in low grades of relative elevation than those of absolute elevation. The land-use conversion(i.e. loss of cropland and gain in woodland and built-up land) showed an apparently stepped distribution with relative elevation classification, suitable for revealing vertical distributions of land-use conversion in the loess hilly region. Cropland transformed to woodland was mainly distributed in high grade of relative elevation, decreasing with a decrease in grades, while built-up land transformed from cropland and grassland was mainly distributed in low grade of relative elevation, decreasing with increases in grades. The grade of relative elevation where cropland transformed to woodland descended with the implementation of the Grain for Green Project. Our results suggest that it is better to analyze the vertical distribution of land-use conversion with relative elevation classification in hilly regions.
基金The National Key Basic Research Special Foundation of China under contract No.2013CB965101the Marine Science and Technology Foundation of the South China Sea Sub-administration,SOA,China under contract No.1624
文摘The importance of dissolved organic phosphorus(DOP) as a potential nutrient source for primary producers in marine systems has been recognized for up to eight decades, but currently, the understanding of the biogeochemistry of DOP is in its infancy. In the present study, monthly data between 2000 and 2014 were used to analyze the temporal and spatial distributions of DOP in the Mir Bay, the northern South China Sea. The DOP residence time(TDOP) was also investigated using a simple regression analysis in combination with chlorophyll a(Chl a) measurements while excess DOP(ΔDOP), produced by the biogeochemical processes of autotrophic production and heterotrophic removal, was determined using a two-component mixing mass-balance model in combination with salinity measurements. The results showed that the DOP concentration was(0.017±0.010) mg/L higher in the surface-water compared with the bottom-water and higher in the inner Tolo Harbour and waters adjacent to Shatoujiao compared with the main zone of the bay. Although seasonal changes and annual variability in the DOP were small, the surface DOP concentration was higher in the wet season(April–September)than in the dry season(October–March) due to the impacts of seaward discharges and atmospheric deposition into the bay. Measurement and regression results showed that the DOP release rate from phytoplankton production was about 1.83(gP)/(gChl a) and the TDOP was about 7 d, which implied that the DOP cycle in the bay was rapid. The ΔDOP was calculated from the model to be about 0.000 mg/L in the main zone of the bay and about 0.002 mg/L in the inner Tolo Harbour and waters adjacent to Shaotoujiao, suggesting that the autotrophic production of DOP was almost balanced by the heterotrophic removal in the main zone of the bay and dominated in the inner Tolo Harbour and waters adjacent to Shaotoujiao. In conclusion, the Mirs Bay is very productive and fairly heterotrophic.
文摘Statistical analysis of lifetime data is a significant topic in social sciences, engineering, reliability, biomedical and others. We use the generalized weighted exponential distribution, as a generator to introduce a new family called generalized weighted exponential-G family, and apply this new generator to provide a new distribution called generalized weighted exponential gombertez distribution. We investigate some of its properties, moment generating function, moments, conditional moments, mean residual lifetime, mean inactivity time, strong mean inactivity time, Rényi entropy, Lorenz curves and Bonferroni. Furthermore, in this model, we estimate the parameters by using maximum likelihood method. We apply this model to a real data-set to show that the new generated distribution can produce a better fit than other classical lifetime models.
文摘We consider a problem from stock market modeling, precisely, choice of adequate distribution of modeling extremal behavior of stock market data. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution are the classical distributions for this problem. However, from 2004, [1] and many other researchers have been empirically showing that generalized logistic (GL) distribution is a better model than GEV and GP distributions in modeling extreme movement of stock market data. In this paper, we show that these results are not accidental. We prove the theoretical importance of GL distribution in extreme value modeling. For proving this, we introduce a general multivariate limit theorem and deduce some important multivariate theorems in probability as special cases. By using the theorem, we derive a limit theorem in extreme value theory, where GL distribution plays central role instead of GEV distribution. The proof of this result is parallel to the proof of classical extremal types theorem, in the sense that, it possess important characteristic in classical extreme value theory, for e.g. distributional property, stability, convergence and multivariate extension etc.
文摘Estimation for the parameters of the generalized logistic distribution (GLD) is obtained based on record statistics from a Bayesian and non-Bayesian approach. The Bayes estimators cannot be obtained in explicit forms. So the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are used for computing the Bayes estimates. Point estimation and confidence intervals based on maximum likelihood and the parametric bootstrap methods are proposed for estimating the unknown parameters. A numerical example has been analyzed for illustrative purposes. Comparisons are made between Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimators via Monte Carlo simulation.
文摘This paper deals with Bayesian inference and prediction problems of the Burr type XII distribution based on progressive first failure censored data. We consider the Bayesian inference under a squared error loss function. We propose to apply Gibbs sampling procedure to draw Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samples, and they have in turn, been used to compute the Bayes estimates with the help of importance sampling technique. We have performed a simulation study in order to compare the proposed Bayes estimators with the maximum likelihood estimators. We further consider two sample Bayes prediction to predicting future order statistics and upper record values from Burr type XII distribution based on progressive first failure censored data. The predictive densities are obtained and used to determine prediction intervals for unobserved order statistics and upper record values. A real life data set is used to illustrate the results derived.
文摘The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of lithium chloride (LiCl) on the fibre length distribution, melting temperature and the rheological characteristics of high yield pulp fibre reinforced polyamide biocomposite. The inorganic salt lithium chloride (LiCl) was used to decrease the melting and processing temperature of bio-based polyamide 11. The extrusion method and Brabender mixer approaches were used to carry out the compounding process. The densities and fibre content were found to be increased after processing using both compounding methods. The HYP fibre length distribution analysis realized using the FQA equipment showed an important fibre-length reduction after processing by both techniques. The rheological properties of HYP-reinforced net and modified bio-based polyamide 11 “PA11” (HYP/PA11) composite were investigated using a capillary rheometer. The rheological tests were performed in function of the shear rate for different temperature conditions. The low-temperature process compounding had higher shear viscosity;this was because during the process the temperature was low and the mixing and melting were induced by the high shear rate created during compounding process. Experimental test results using the extrusion process showed a steep decrease in shear viscosity with increasing shear rate, and this melt-flow characteristic corresponds to shear-thinning behavior in HYP/PA11, and this steep decrease in the melt viscosity can be associated to the hydrolyse reaction of nylon for high pulp fibre moisture content at high temperature. In addition to the low processing temperature, the melt viscosity of the biocomposite using the Brabender mixer approach increases with increasing shear rate, and this stability in the increase even at high shear rate for high pulp moisture content is associated to the presence of inorganic salt lithium chloride which creates the hydrogen bonds with pulp during the compounding process.
文摘AIM: To compare the racial differences of anatomical distribution of colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine the association of age, gender and time with anatomical distribution between patients from America (white) and China (oriental).METHODS: Data was collected from 690 consecutive patients in Cleveland Clinic Florida, U.S.A. and 870consecutive patients in Nan Fang Hospital affiliated to the First Military Medical University, China over the past 11years from 1990 to 2000. All patients had colorectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed by histology and underwent surgery.RESULTS: The anatomical subsite distribution of tumor,age and gender were significantly different between white and oriental patients. Lesions in the proximal colon (P＜0.001) were found in 36.3 % of white vs 26.0 % of oriental patients and cancers located in the distal colon and rectum in 63.7 % of white and 74 % of oriental patients (P＜0.001). There was a trend towards the redistribution from distal colon and rectum to proximal colon in white males over time, especially in older patients (＞80 years).No significant change of anatomical distribution occurred in white women and Oriental patients. The mean age at diagnosis was 69.0 years in white patients and 48.3 years in Oriental patients (P＜0.001).CONCLUSION: This is the first study comparing the anatomical distribution of colorectal cancers in whites and Chinese patients. White Americans have a higher risk of proximal CRC and this risk increased with time. The proportion of white males with CRC also increased with time.Chinese patients were more likely to have distal CRC and developed the disease at a significantly earlier age than white patients. These findings have enhanced our understanding of the disease process of colorectal cancer in these two races.
基金the financial support from Science and Engineering Research Board,Department of Science&Technology,Government of India,under the scheme Early Career Research Award(file no.ECR/2017/002416)Dr.Sharma also acknowledges Banaras Hindu University,Varanasi,India,for providing financial support as seed grant under the Institute of Eminence Scheme(Scheme no.Dev.6031).
文摘This article introduces a three-parameter Lehman-type t distribution having 2 degrees of freedom,that is capable of fitting positive and negative skewed data sets.It is shown that the density and hazard functions of the proposed distribution are uni-model.Ordinary moments,entropy measure,ordering,identifiability and order statistics are investigated.Since the quantile function is explicitly defined,quantile-based statistics are also discussed for the proposed distribution.These properties include measures of skewness and kurtosis,L-moments,quantile density and hazard functions,mean residual life function and Parzen's score function.Mechanisms of maximum likelihood,bias correction and matching of percentiles are employed for estimating the unknown parameters of the distribution.Simulation experiments are conducted to compare the performance of these three estimation methods.A real-life data set consisting of strength of glass fibres is fitted to show the adequacy of the proposed distribution over some extensions of the normal and t distributions.Parametric regression model is developed along with its parameter estimation using the maximum likelihood approach.Simulation study for the regression model is also presented that endorsed the asymptotic properties of the estimators.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51639002 and 51379118)the SDUST Research Fund(Grant No.2015KYTD104)
文摘The modified suction caisson(MSC) is a novel type of foundation for ocean engineering, consisting of a short external closed-top cylinder-shaped structure surrounding the upper part of the regular suction caisson(RSC). The MSC can provide larger lateral bearing capacity and limit the deflection compared with the RSC. Therefore, the MSC can be much more appropriate to use as an offshore wind turbine foundation. Model tests on the MSC in saturated sand subjected to monotonic lateral loading were carried out to investigate the effects of external structure sizes on the sand surface deformation and the earth pressure distribution along the embedded depth. Test results show that the deformation range of the sand surface increases with the increasing width and length of the external structure. The magnitude of sand upheaval around the MSC is smaller than that of the RSC and the sand upheaval value around the MSC in the loading direction decreases with the increasing external structure dimensions. The net earth pressure in the loading direction acting on the internal compartment of the MSC is smaller than that of the RSC at the same embedded depth. The maximum net earth pressure acting on the external structure outer wall in the loading direction is larger than that of the internal compartment, indicating that a considerable amount of the lateral load and moment is resisted by the external skirt structure.
文摘Using the Feynman's path integral with topological constraints arising from the presence of one singular line, we find the homotopic probability distribution PnL for the winding number n and the partition function PL of the entangled system around a ribbon segment chain. We find that when the width of the ribbon segment chain 2a increases,the partition function exponentially decreases, whereas the free energy increases an amount, which is proportional to the square of the width. When the width tends to zero we obtain the same results as those of a single chain with one singular point.
文摘The classical power law relaxation, i.e. relaxation of current with inverse of power of time for a step-voltage excitation to dielectric—as popularly known as Curie-von Schweidler law is empirically derived and is observed in several relaxation experiments on various dielectrics studies since late 19th Century. This relaxation law is also regarded as “universal-law” for dielectric relaxations;and is also termed as power law. This empirical Curie-von Schewidler relaxation law is then used to derive fractional differential equations describing constituent expression for capacitor. In this paper, we give simple mathematical treatment to derive the distribution of relaxation rates of this Curie-von Schweidler law, and show that the relaxation rate follows Zipf’s power law distribution. We also show the method developed here give Zipfian power law distribution for relaxing time constants. Then we will show however mathematically correct this may be, but physical interpretation from the obtained time constants distribution are contradictory to the Zipfian rate relaxation distribution. In this paper, we develop possible explanation that as to why Zipfian distribution of relaxation rates appears for Curie-von Schweidler Law, and relate this law to time variant rate of relaxation. In this paper, we derive appearance of fractional derivative while using Zipfian power law distribution that gives notion of scale dependent relaxation rate function for Curie-von Schweidler relaxation phenomena. This paper gives analytical approach to get insight of a non-Debye relaxation and gives a new treatment to especially much used empirical Curie-von Schweidler (universal) relaxation law.
文摘We study the high order equilibrium distributions of a counting random variable. Properties such as moments, the probability generating function, the stop--loss transform and the mean residual lifetime, are derived. Expressions are obtained for higher order equilibrium distribution functions under mixtures and convolutions of a counting distribution. Recursive formulas for higher order equilibrium distribution functions of the (a,b,0) -family of distributions are given.
