Water-sand gushing(WSG)disasters in confinedaquifers pose significantchallenges to the utilization of deep underground spaces in soft soil areas.Since few studies have considered the impact of confined aquifer thickne...Water-sand gushing(WSG)disasters in confinedaquifers pose significantchallenges to the utilization of deep underground spaces in soft soil areas.Since few studies have considered the impact of confined aquifer thickness and confinedwater pressure on WSG disasters,a novel visual model test system was developed to investigate the influencingcharacteristics and mechanisms of the two aforementioned factors.The test results showed that the WSG process in clay aquiclude-confinedaquifer composite strata exhibits two prominent stages.First,the sand loss zone expands vertically in an ellipsoid shape.Then,it expands horizontally once the ellipsoid reaches the boundary of the clay layer.The sand loss continues until the overlying clay sinks to the bottom to clog the gushing crack,creating a large sinkhole at the surface.Increasing the confinedaquifer thickness can increase the vertical expansion of the ellipsoid and delay the clay-clogging effects,thereby considerably increasing the severity of sand loss,stratum deformation,and surface settlement.An increase in the confinedwater pressure markedly increases the hydraulic gradient along the seepage path,which contributes to increasing the gushing rates of water and sand.As a result,substantial sand loss occurs before the clay clogs the gushing crack,inducing more cracks and deeper sinkholes at the surface.All the aforementioned results provide insights into the effects of confinedaquifer on WSG disasters in clay aquiclude-confinedaquifer composite strata.展开更多
In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statist...In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.展开更多
At first glance(一瞥),10-year-old B.Kenit from the coastal town of Visakhapatnam in India looks like any other school-going child,but there is more than meets the eye.Inspired by a tsunami drill conducted in his schoo...At first glance(一瞥),10-year-old B.Kenit from the coastal town of Visakhapatnam in India looks like any other school-going child,but there is more than meets the eye.Inspired by a tsunami drill conducted in his school when he was eight,the third grader be-came a Disaster Risk Reduction(DRR)advocate,educating his fel-low students and community members on early warning,evacua-tion,and search and rescue.展开更多
Snow and freezing disasters are recurrent weather and climate phenomena that affect the world annually.These events exert a significant influence on numerous aspects of life,including transportation,power supply,and d...Snow and freezing disasters are recurrent weather and climate phenomena that affect the world annually.These events exert a significant influence on numerous aspects of life,including transportation,power supply,and daily activities,and result in considerable economic losses.This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the regions affected by these disasters,the preventive and responsive measures employed,recent advancements in key materials,and the challenges encountered.By doing so,we can gain a deeper understanding of the vital role,significant advantages,and untapped potential of key materials for effectively preventing and responding to snow and freezing disasters.Furthermore,promoting research and utilization of these materials not only contributes to the development of the safety and emergency equipment industry but also strengthens the supply of advanced and suitable safety and emergency equipment.展开更多
Disaster risk reduction,an essential function of protected areas(PAs),has been generally overlooked in PA design.Using primates as a model,we designed a disaster risk index(DRI)to measure the disaster sensitivity of p...Disaster risk reduction,an essential function of protected areas(PAs),has been generally overlooked in PA design.Using primates as a model,we designed a disaster risk index(DRI)to measure the disaster sensitivity of primate species.High-conservation-need(HCN)areas were identified by both their richness and number of threatened primate species.We also constructed high-disaster-risk(HDR)areas and climate-sensitive(CS)areas based on a disaster risk assessment and temperature change under climate change.We overlaid HCN and HDR areas to obtain HDR-HCN areas.We defined species conservation targets as the percent of each species’range that should be effectively conserved using“Zonation”.Landslides had the highest DRI(1.43±0.88),but have been overlooked in previous studies.PA coverage in HDR-HCN(30%)areas was similar to that in HCN areas(28%),indicating that current PA design fails to account for disaster risk reduction.About 50%of the HDR-HCN areas overlapped with CS areas.Presently,43%of primate species meet their conservation targets.Fifty-seven of primate species would meet their conservation targets and 67%of primates could benefit from PA expansion if HDR-HCN areas are fully incorporated into PAs.Increasing PA coverage in HDR-HCN areas is essential to achieving both primate conservation and disaster risk reduction.The study calls for integrating disaster risk reduction into PA design guidelines,particularly in regions like the western Amazon,and recommends flexible conservation approaches in other areas.展开更多
The occurrence characteristics and impacts of agricultural meteorological disasters during the main growth period of potatoes in Ulanqab City were analyzed.According to the development needs of modern potato industry,...The occurrence characteristics and impacts of agricultural meteorological disasters during the main growth period of potatoes in Ulanqab City were analyzed.According to the development needs of modern potato industry,some countermeasures for meteorological services in the disaster prevention and mitigation of potatoes were proposed,such as strengthening intelligent and digital meteorological services,and building a full-chain meteorological service for the entire growth period of potatoes.The aim is to reduce the impact of disasters and increase the yield and quality of potatoes through intelligent and digital meteorological services.展开更多
The Hengduan Mountains region(HMR)is one of the most densely distributed and severe flash flood disaster-prone areas in southwest China.It is also a key area for major engineering projects and beautiful countryside co...The Hengduan Mountains region(HMR)is one of the most densely distributed and severe flash flood disaster-prone areas in southwest China.It is also a key area for major engineering projects and beautiful countryside construction in Southwest China.However,previous studies have not systematically summarized the development characteristics and formation modes of flash flood disasters in the HMR,which limits the development of theoretical and technical system for flood control.In this study,we focused on the physical processes of flash flood disasters in the HMR,including generation,movement,and disaster formation,and clarified the dominant disaster-inducing conditions(multiple humid monsoon circulation,high potential energy and high heterogenous underlying surface)and disaster development characteristics(high spatio-temporal heterogeneity,highly concentrated energy,chain and cascading effects,and clustered occurrence)of flash floods in the HMR.Based on the entire processes of flash flood disasters,three major formation modes have been summarized:the runoff generation mode of vegetation-hydrology-soil coupling dominated by high hydraulic gradient in mountainous areas,strong flow-sediment coupling movement,and serious disaster losses due to high exposure of disaster bearing objects.Finally,based on the issues in previous research,four future research challenges for flash flood disaster in the HMR were proposed.Our study provides insights into disaster prevention and reduction research,including fundamental theoretical system,precise risk assessment of regional disasters,and accurate early warning and forecasting of flash floods.展开更多
Interdependencies between critical infrastructures and the economy amplify the effects of damage caused by disasters.The growing interest in impacts beyond physical damage and community resilience has spurred a surge ...Interdependencies between critical infrastructures and the economy amplify the effects of damage caused by disasters.The growing interest in impacts beyond physical damage and community resilience has spurred a surge in literature on economic modeling methodologies for estimating indirect economic impacts of disasters and the recovery of economic activity over time.In this review,we present a framework for categorizing modeling approaches that assess indirect economic impacts across natural hazards and anthropogenic disasters such as cyber attacks.We first conduct a comparative analysis of macroeconomic models,focusing on the approaches capturing sectoral interdependencies.These include the Leontief Input-Output(I/O)model,the Inoperability Input-Output Model(IIM),the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model(DIIM),the Adaptive Regional Input-Output(ARIO)model,and the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model and its extensions.We evaluate their applicability to disaster scenarios based on input data availability,the compatibility of model assumptions,and output capabilities.We also reveal the functional relationships of input data and output metrics across economic modeling approaches for inter-sectoral impacts.Furthermore,we examine how the damage mechanisms posed by different types of disasters translate into model inputs and impact modeling processes.This synthesis provides guidance for researchers and practitioners in selecting and configuring models based on specific disaster scenarios.It also identifies the gaps in the literature,including the need for a deeper understanding of model performance reliability,key drivers of economic outcomes in different disaster contexts,and the disparities in modeling approach applications across various hazard types.展开更多
In the context of climate change,the acceleration of the global water cycle has led to the emergence of abrupt transitions between drought and flood events,presenting a new challenge for flood and drought disaster mit...In the context of climate change,the acceleration of the global water cycle has led to the emergence of abrupt transitions between drought and flood events,presenting a new challenge for flood and drought disaster mitigation.Abrupt transitions between drought and flood refer to a phenomenon in which an extreme drought event quickly shifts to an extreme flood event,or vice versa,within a relatively short time span.This phenomenon disrupts the traditional spatiotemporal distribution patterns of water-related disasters,reflecting not only the extreme unevenness in the distribution of water resources but also the rapid alternation of the water cycle's evolution(He et al.,2016).Moreover,due to its suddenness,extremity,and complexity,it poses severe threats to human societies and ecosystems.Scientifically addressing abrupt transitions between drought and flood has thus become a new challenge in flood and drought disaster prevention.展开更多
基金financedby the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52090083)the Shanghai Rising-Star Program(Grant No.23QB1404800).
文摘Water-sand gushing(WSG)disasters in confinedaquifers pose significantchallenges to the utilization of deep underground spaces in soft soil areas.Since few studies have considered the impact of confined aquifer thickness and confinedwater pressure on WSG disasters,a novel visual model test system was developed to investigate the influencingcharacteristics and mechanisms of the two aforementioned factors.The test results showed that the WSG process in clay aquiclude-confinedaquifer composite strata exhibits two prominent stages.First,the sand loss zone expands vertically in an ellipsoid shape.Then,it expands horizontally once the ellipsoid reaches the boundary of the clay layer.The sand loss continues until the overlying clay sinks to the bottom to clog the gushing crack,creating a large sinkhole at the surface.Increasing the confinedaquifer thickness can increase the vertical expansion of the ellipsoid and delay the clay-clogging effects,thereby considerably increasing the severity of sand loss,stratum deformation,and surface settlement.An increase in the confinedwater pressure markedly increases the hydraulic gradient along the seepage path,which contributes to increasing the gushing rates of water and sand.As a result,substantial sand loss occurs before the clay clogs the gushing crack,inducing more cracks and deeper sinkholes at the surface.All the aforementioned results provide insights into the effects of confinedaquifer on WSG disasters in clay aquiclude-confinedaquifer composite strata.
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province(No.SCSF202307)the Basic Research Fund of CAMS(No.2023Z016)+1 种基金the National Natural Scientific Foundation of China(No.42275037)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change。
文摘In this study,tropical cyclone(TC)translation speed was introduced as a new similarity factor within the generalized initial value(GIV)framework,enhancing the disaster preassessment capability of the dynamical statistical analog ensemble forecast model for landfalling TC disasters(DSAEF_LTD model).Three TC translation speed indicators most relevant to TC precipitation were incorporated:the maximum speed on Day 1(the first day of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land)and the average and minimum speeds over All Days(all days of TC-induced precipitation and wind occurring on land),all classified using the Kmeans clustering algorithm.Simulation experiments showed that integrating TC translation speed enhanced the model's performance.The model provided a better optimal common scheme,with the TSS UM(sum of threat scores for severe and above and extremely severe and above disasters)increasing by 2.66%(from 0.5117 to 0.5253)compared with the original model.More importantly,its preassessment ability improved significantly,with the average TSS UM for independent samples increasing by 6.43%(from 0.6488 to0.6905).The modified model demonstrated greater accuracy in capturing disaster severity and distribution of TCs with significant speed characteristics or with regular tracks.This improvement stemmed from reduced false alarms due to the selection of analogs that are more similar to the target TC.The enhanced preassessment ability can be attributed to the key role of TC translation speed,which significantly influences TC precipitation patterns and improves TC precipitation forecasting.Since precipitation is one of the most crucial disaster-causing factors,better TC precipitation forecasting leads to improved disaster preassessment outcomes.These findings emphasize the promising potential of the DSAEF_LTD model for future TC disaster research and management,contributing to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals set by the United Nations 2030 Agenda by strengthening coastal resilience.
文摘At first glance(一瞥),10-year-old B.Kenit from the coastal town of Visakhapatnam in India looks like any other school-going child,but there is more than meets the eye.Inspired by a tsunami drill conducted in his school when he was eight,the third grader be-came a Disaster Risk Reduction(DRR)advocate,educating his fel-low students and community members on early warning,evacua-tion,and search and rescue.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52273220 and 22205243)。
文摘Snow and freezing disasters are recurrent weather and climate phenomena that affect the world annually.These events exert a significant influence on numerous aspects of life,including transportation,power supply,and daily activities,and result in considerable economic losses.This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the regions affected by these disasters,the preventive and responsive measures employed,recent advancements in key materials,and the challenges encountered.By doing so,we can gain a deeper understanding of the vital role,significant advantages,and untapped potential of key materials for effectively preventing and responding to snow and freezing disasters.Furthermore,promoting research and utilization of these materials not only contributes to the development of the safety and emergency equipment industry but also strengthens the supply of advanced and suitable safety and emergency equipment.
基金supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2022YFF1301500)the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(Grants No.32000352,32171485,and 32371741)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(Grant No.2021A1515010968)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,Sun Yat-sen University(Grant No.23lgzy002).
文摘Disaster risk reduction,an essential function of protected areas(PAs),has been generally overlooked in PA design.Using primates as a model,we designed a disaster risk index(DRI)to measure the disaster sensitivity of primate species.High-conservation-need(HCN)areas were identified by both their richness and number of threatened primate species.We also constructed high-disaster-risk(HDR)areas and climate-sensitive(CS)areas based on a disaster risk assessment and temperature change under climate change.We overlaid HCN and HDR areas to obtain HDR-HCN areas.We defined species conservation targets as the percent of each species’range that should be effectively conserved using“Zonation”.Landslides had the highest DRI(1.43±0.88),but have been overlooked in previous studies.PA coverage in HDR-HCN(30%)areas was similar to that in HCN areas(28%),indicating that current PA design fails to account for disaster risk reduction.About 50%of the HDR-HCN areas overlapped with CS areas.Presently,43%of primate species meet their conservation targets.Fifty-seven of primate species would meet their conservation targets and 67%of primates could benefit from PA expansion if HDR-HCN areas are fully incorporated into PAs.Increasing PA coverage in HDR-HCN areas is essential to achieving both primate conservation and disaster risk reduction.The study calls for integrating disaster risk reduction into PA design guidelines,particularly in regions like the western Amazon,and recommends flexible conservation approaches in other areas.
文摘The occurrence characteristics and impacts of agricultural meteorological disasters during the main growth period of potatoes in Ulanqab City were analyzed.According to the development needs of modern potato industry,some countermeasures for meteorological services in the disaster prevention and mitigation of potatoes were proposed,such as strengthening intelligent and digital meteorological services,and building a full-chain meteorological service for the entire growth period of potatoes.The aim is to reduce the impact of disasters and increase the yield and quality of potatoes through intelligent and digital meteorological services.
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program,No.2019QZKK0903-02National Key R&D Program of China,No.2022YFC3002902National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42201086。
文摘The Hengduan Mountains region(HMR)is one of the most densely distributed and severe flash flood disaster-prone areas in southwest China.It is also a key area for major engineering projects and beautiful countryside construction in Southwest China.However,previous studies have not systematically summarized the development characteristics and formation modes of flash flood disasters in the HMR,which limits the development of theoretical and technical system for flood control.In this study,we focused on the physical processes of flash flood disasters in the HMR,including generation,movement,and disaster formation,and clarified the dominant disaster-inducing conditions(multiple humid monsoon circulation,high potential energy and high heterogenous underlying surface)and disaster development characteristics(high spatio-temporal heterogeneity,highly concentrated energy,chain and cascading effects,and clustered occurrence)of flash floods in the HMR.Based on the entire processes of flash flood disasters,three major formation modes have been summarized:the runoff generation mode of vegetation-hydrology-soil coupling dominated by high hydraulic gradient in mountainous areas,strong flow-sediment coupling movement,and serious disaster losses due to high exposure of disaster bearing objects.Finally,based on the issues in previous research,four future research challenges for flash flood disaster in the HMR were proposed.Our study provides insights into disaster prevention and reduction research,including fundamental theoretical system,precise risk assessment of regional disasters,and accurate early warning and forecasting of flash floods.
基金supported by the Stanford Graduate Fellowship,the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York Universitythe National Science Foundation under award number CMMI-2053014.The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone.
文摘Interdependencies between critical infrastructures and the economy amplify the effects of damage caused by disasters.The growing interest in impacts beyond physical damage and community resilience has spurred a surge in literature on economic modeling methodologies for estimating indirect economic impacts of disasters and the recovery of economic activity over time.In this review,we present a framework for categorizing modeling approaches that assess indirect economic impacts across natural hazards and anthropogenic disasters such as cyber attacks.We first conduct a comparative analysis of macroeconomic models,focusing on the approaches capturing sectoral interdependencies.These include the Leontief Input-Output(I/O)model,the Inoperability Input-Output Model(IIM),the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model(DIIM),the Adaptive Regional Input-Output(ARIO)model,and the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model and its extensions.We evaluate their applicability to disaster scenarios based on input data availability,the compatibility of model assumptions,and output capabilities.We also reveal the functional relationships of input data and output metrics across economic modeling approaches for inter-sectoral impacts.Furthermore,we examine how the damage mechanisms posed by different types of disasters translate into model inputs and impact modeling processes.This synthesis provides guidance for researchers and practitioners in selecting and configuring models based on specific disaster scenarios.It also identifies the gaps in the literature,including the need for a deeper understanding of model performance reliability,key drivers of economic outcomes in different disaster contexts,and the disparities in modeling approach applications across various hazard types.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3209800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52279011).
文摘In the context of climate change,the acceleration of the global water cycle has led to the emergence of abrupt transitions between drought and flood events,presenting a new challenge for flood and drought disaster mitigation.Abrupt transitions between drought and flood refer to a phenomenon in which an extreme drought event quickly shifts to an extreme flood event,or vice versa,within a relatively short time span.This phenomenon disrupts the traditional spatiotemporal distribution patterns of water-related disasters,reflecting not only the extreme unevenness in the distribution of water resources but also the rapid alternation of the water cycle's evolution(He et al.,2016).Moreover,due to its suddenness,extremity,and complexity,it poses severe threats to human societies and ecosystems.Scientifically addressing abrupt transitions between drought and flood has thus become a new challenge in flood and drought disaster prevention.
