This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective.According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system...This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective.According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics,a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system.Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method,a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established.The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system.The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution.Meanwhile,a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm.The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China mainland.The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.展开更多
Using 3S technology, relying on earth-space three-dimensional agriculture disaster monitoring network, remote sensing monitoring model for agricultural disaster in Henan Province was established, and agricultural disa...Using 3S technology, relying on earth-space three-dimensional agriculture disaster monitoring network, remote sensing monitoring model for agricultural disaster in Henan Province was established, and agricultural disaster monitoring system plat- form of Henan Province based on multi-souroe satellite data was further constructed, which realizes dynamic monitoring of agricultural disasters in Henan Province （drought, flood, snow cover and straw burning）.展开更多
Based on technologies of GRADS, Delphi, WEB and an SQLServer, distri- bution system for major meteorological disasters early warning information in Hunan Province was established. The system consists of warning tips, ...Based on technologies of GRADS, Delphi, WEB and an SQLServer, distri- bution system for major meteorological disasters early warning information in Hunan Province was established. The system consists of warning tips, early warning for different media and early warning query statistics and the network terminal of the system platform includes a business database server, a message platform database server, a sending server and a receiving terminal. The system enjoys some func- tions, such as examination by different users, on-time updating and effectiveness of flood prevention, construction of excessive warning channel, construction of compre-hensive warning information platform and further improvement of information distribution. The system provides references for prevention and reduction of important me- teorological disasters in Hunan.展开更多
By analyzing the subtropics aquaculture present situation,the necessity of the construction of cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture,the research goal and the duty were expounded. The system st...By analyzing the subtropics aquaculture present situation,the necessity of the construction of cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture,the research goal and the duty were expounded. The system structure and the frame were introduced in detail. Several key questions and their solutions of the cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture were put forward.展开更多
Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Pr...Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.展开更多
The study on humanity response to global environment change is a new direction in the research of global change science, of which an important aspect is to study the adaptation strategies of human being to environment...The study on humanity response to global environment change is a new direction in the research of global change science, of which an important aspect is to study the adaptation strategies of human being to environmental changes in different regions. One reasonable and scientific adaptation strategy is based on not only scientific assessment of the impact of environmental change on society, but also correct estimation of the public perception of environmental change, whereas the research on the latter is terribly weak. This paper intends to understand the personality difference in public perception of environment in the western China primarily by establishing the assessment index system of nation environmental perception and analyzing the results of questionnaire survey in some regions of Shaanxi Province. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The state of public perception of disaster is one of the foundations of constituting and enforcing reasonable adaptation strategy to environmental change. 2) The personality differences of public perception of disaster appear as follows: female disaster perception is stronger than male;the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of age characteristics is 20-30, 0-20, 40-50, 30-40, 50-60, 60 year old or over in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of educational characteristics is senior high school, college, illiterate, junior high school, primary school, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of occupation characteristics is student, farmer, teacher, worker and functionary, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of habitat characteristics is city, countryside, towns, and metropolis in turns.展开更多
ABSTRACT: This paper generalizes the makeup and forming dynamic mechanism of natural disaster systems, principles and methods of comprehensive division of natural disasters, as well as structure, function and up-build...ABSTRACT: This paper generalizes the makeup and forming dynamic mechanism of natural disaster systems, principles and methods of comprehensive division of natural disasters, as well as structure, function and up-build routes of map and file information visualization system (MFIVS). Taking the Changjiang(Yangtze) Valley as an example, on the basis of revealing up the integrated mechanism on the formations of its natural disasters and its distributing law, thereafter, the paper relies on the MFIVS technique, adopts two top-down and bottom-up approaches to study a comprehensive division of natural disasters. It is relatively objective and precise that the required division results include three natural disaster sections and nine natural disaster sub-sections, which can not only provide a scientific basis for utilizing natural resources and controlling natural disaster and environmental degradation, but also be illuminated to a concise, practical and effective technique on comprehensive division.展开更多
In China, estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers. The disasters by combined effect of upper reach flood, storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstacles to the economic devel...In China, estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers. The disasters by combined effect of upper reach flood, storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstacles to the economic development of such cities. Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-storm surge-wave disaster, economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role in the sustainable development of coastal cities. There are three types of coastal cities for consideration. The first type of city is like Tianjin. The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood. The effect of storm surge is negligible, because in the estuary of the Haihe River, tidal locks are built. The Grey Markov Model (GMM) is used to forecast the flood peak level GMM combines the Grey system and the Markov theory into a high-precision model The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data. A synthetic model is established for economic assessment, risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation As a new contribution, a stochastic simulation technique is used to compute risk probability. At the same time, consideration is given to the effect of correlation between variables on risk probability. The second type of city is like Shanghai, where sometimes the combined effect of river flood peak and set storm surge is the most severe disaster. The water level of a 1000 yr. return period of the Huangpu river is used as the design criterion. The simulated combined water level of flood peak, storm surge and maximum astronomical tidal level of a 400 yr. return period is close to the conventional design water level of a return period of 1000 years. The third type of city is Like Qingdao, where the combined effect of the maximum astronomical tide, storm surge and waves bring about the most significant damage. With the stochastic simulation technique, different combinations of storm surge and waves at the 1% and 2% joint probability level are simulated for disaster prevention.展开更多
Highways in mountainous areas are easy to be damaged by such natural disasters as debris flows and landslides and disaster reduction decision support system (DRDSS) is one of the important means to mitigate these disa...Highways in mountainous areas are easy to be damaged by such natural disasters as debris flows and landslides and disaster reduction decision support system (DRDSS) is one of the important means to mitigate these disasters. Guided by the theories and technologies of debris flow and landslide reduction and supported by geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing and database techniques, a DRDSS against debris flow and landslide along highways in mountainous areas has been established on the basis of such principles as pertinence, systematicness, effectiveness, easy to use, open and expandability. The system consists of database, disaster analysis models and decisions on reduction of debris flows and landslides, mainly functioning to zone disaster dangerous degree, analyze debris flow activity, simulate debris flow deposition and diffusion, analyze landslide stability, select optimal highway renovation scheme and plan disaster prevention and control engineering. This system has been applied successfully to the debris flow and landslide treatment works along Palongzangbu Section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway.展开更多
According to news reports on severe earthquakes since 2008,a total of 51 cases with magnitudes of 6.0 or above were analyzed,and 14 frequently occurring secondary disasters were identified.A disaster chain model was d...According to news reports on severe earthquakes since 2008,a total of 51 cases with magnitudes of 6.0 or above were analyzed,and 14 frequently occurring secondary disasters were identified.A disaster chain model was developed using principles from complex network theory.The vulnerability and risk level of each edge in this model were calculated,and high-risk edges and disaster chains were identified.The analysis reveals that the edge“floods→building collapses”has the highest vulnerability.Implementing measures to mitigate this edge is crucial for delaying the spread of secondary disasters.The highest risk is associated with the edge“building collapses→casualties,”and increased risks are also identified for chains such as“earthquake→building collapses→casualties,”“earthquake→landslides and debris flows→dammed lakes,”and“dammed lakes→floods→building collapses.”Following an earthquake,the prompt implementation of measures is crucial to effectively disrupt these chains and minimize the damage from secondary disasters.展开更多
This paper proposes a content addres sable storage optimization method, VDeskCAS, for desktop virtualization storage based disaster backup storage system. The method implements a blocklevel storage optimization, by em...This paper proposes a content addres sable storage optimization method, VDeskCAS, for desktop virtualization storage based disaster backup storage system. The method implements a blocklevel storage optimization, by employing the algorithms of chunking image file into blocks, the blockffmger calculation and the block dedup li cation. A File system in Use Space （FUSE） based storage process for VDeskCAS is also introduced which optimizes current direct storage to suit our content addressable storage. An interface level modification makes our system easy to extend. Experiments on virtual desktop image files and normal files verify the effectiveness of our method and above 60% storage volume decrease is a chieved for Red Hat Enterprise Linux image files. Key words： disaster backup; desktop virtualization; storage optimization; content addressable storage展开更多
Timely investigating post-disaster situations to locate survivors and secure hazardous sources is critical,but also very challenging and risky.Despite first responders putting their lives at risk in saving others,huma...Timely investigating post-disaster situations to locate survivors and secure hazardous sources is critical,but also very challenging and risky.Despite first responders putting their lives at risk in saving others,human-physical limits cause delays in response time,resulting in fatality and property damage.In this paper,we proposed and implemented a framework intended for creating collaboration between heterogeneous unmanned vehicles and first responders to make search and rescue operations safer and faster.The framework consists of unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),unmanned ground vehicles(UGVs),a cloud-based remote control station(RCS).A light-weight message queuing telemetry transport(MQTT)based communication is adopted for facilitating collaboration between autonomous systems.To effectively work under unfavorable disaster conditions,antenna tracker is developed as a tool to extend network coverage to distant areas,and mobile charging points for the UAVs are also implemented.The proposed framework’s performance is evaluated in terms of end-to-end delay and analyzed using architectural analysis and design language(AADL).Experimental measurements and simulation results show that the adopted communication protocol performs more efficiently than other conventional communication protocols,and the implemented UAV control mechanisms are functioning properly.Several scenarios are implemented to validate the overall effectiveness of the proposed framework and demonstrate possible use cases.展开更多
Highly security-critical system should possess features of continuous service. We present a new Robust Disaster Recovery System Model （RDRSM）. Through strengthening the ability of safe communications, RDRSM guarante...Highly security-critical system should possess features of continuous service. We present a new Robust Disaster Recovery System Model （RDRSM）. Through strengthening the ability of safe communications, RDRSM guarantees the secure and reliable command on disaster recovery. Its self-supervision capability can monitor the integrality and security of disaster recovery system itself. By 2D and 3D rea-time visible platform provided by GIS, GPS and RS, the model makes the using, management and maintenance of disaster recovery system easier. RDRSM possesses predominant features of security, robustness and controllability. And it can be applied to highly security-critical environments such as E-government and bank. Conducted by RDRSM, an important E-government disaster recovery system has been constructed successfully. The feasibility of this model is verified by practice. We especially emphasize the significance of some components of the model, such as risk assessment, disaster recovery planning, system supervision and robust communication support.展开更多
Critical infrastructures（CI） are designated sectors that if incapacitated or destroyed by natural disasters would have a serious impact on national security and economic and social welfare. Due to the interdependenc...Critical infrastructures（CI） are designated sectors that if incapacitated or destroyed by natural disasters would have a serious impact on national security and economic and social welfare. Due to the interdependency of critical infrastructures failure of one infrastructure during a natural disaster such as earthquake or flood may cause failure of another and so on through a cascade or escalating effect. Quantification of these types of interdependencies between critical infrastructures is essential for effective response and management of resources for rescue, recovery, and restoration during times of crises. This paper proposes a new mathematical framework based on an asymmetric relation matrix constructed in a bottom-up approach for modeling and analyzing interdependencies of critical infrastructures. Asymmetric dependency matrices can be constructed using the asymmetric incidence coefficient based on node-level relationships defined between nodes for measuring the strength of interdependency between node and node, node and network, and networks and networks. These asymmetric matrices are further analyzed for ranking infrastructures in terms of their relative importance and for identifying nodes and infrastructure networks that play a critical role in chain effects among infrastructures involved in geo-disaster events such as flooding. Examples of interdependency analysis for the identification of vulnerabilities among fifteen national defense-related infrastructure sectors by the Australian government and a simulated example using the newly developed GIS-based network simulator Geo PN are used to validate and demonstrate the implementation and effectiveness of interdependency analysis methods in analyzing infrastructure interdependency during a flooding event.展开更多
Hainan is an island province in south China with a high frequency of unconventional emergencies due to its special geographic location and national military defense role.Given the limited transportation route from Hai...Hainan is an island province in south China with a high frequency of unconventional emergencies due to its special geographic location and national military defense role.Given the limited transportation route from Hainan to the outside world,self-rescue is more important to Hainan Province than other provinces in China and it is therefore imperative to establish an independent, scientific as well as efficient provincal disaster medical system in Hainan.The regulatory role for vulnerability analysis/assessment has been demonstrated in establisment of disaster medical system in varoius countries and or regions.In this paper,we attempt to describe/propose how to adopt vulnerability assessment through mathematical modeling of major biophysical social vulnerability factors to establish an independent,scientific,effieicnt and comprehensive provincial disaster medical system in Hainan.展开更多
The article establishes the patterns of urban snow disaster system and disaster chain based on the theory of regional disaster system. The patterns indicate that urban snow disaster is exacerbated mainly through the t...The article establishes the patterns of urban snow disaster system and disaster chain based on the theory of regional disaster system. The patterns indicate that urban snow disaster is exacerbated mainly through the traffic system. In addition, the paper sets up the vulnerability assessment index system and synthetically vulnerability assessment model of urban snow disaster which are mainly based on traffic system, and applies them in Chenzhou City. The results of assessment indicate that obvious geographical differences exist in the vulnerability of snow disaster bearing bodies: vulnerability of Chenzhou section of the Beijing-Zhuhai expressway is the highest in Chenzhou City, and the southeastern counties are more vulnerable than the northwest region. Furthermore, according to the snow disaster vulnerability dynamic process analysis, the vulnerability of Chenzhou City obviously increased in 2008 winter compared with that in 2007. Finally, the paper presents some suggestions for the locations of the emergency commands and the reserves of relief materials based on the evaluation results, and points out that disaster monitoring and relevant technical level should be strengthened for the minimization of traffic system's vulnerability.展开更多
The method of realizing meteorological and geological disaster forecast and early warning information system in Qixian County of Shanxi Province was studied. According to meteorological factor parameter of the geologi...The method of realizing meteorological and geological disaster forecast and early warning information system in Qixian County of Shanxi Province was studied. According to meteorological factor parameter of the geological disasters for many years in Qixian County Land Bureau, and data of average meteorological element parameters that corresponded by evolution of geological disaster region each year, evaluation algorithm model of the forecast and eady warning of geological disasters in Qixian County was obtained, and the database of meteorological factor of geological disaster was established. On this basis, WebGIS geographic information system based on C/S and B/S which could real-time monitor geological disaster region was studied and designed. After data analysis system could evaluate the geological disaster forecast and early warning and make the real-time and accurate early warning, which greatly improved the timeliness of meteorological geological disasters forecast and early warning in Qixian County. System set of data processing and forecast and early warning issued in one, to realize the dynamic information release function of grade of geological disaster early warning, and had the characteristics of easy sharing, real-time dynamic update.展开更多
No matter whether a system is operated manually or automatically controlled by computer, the system’s vulnerability always exists. Earthquake Disaster Reduction System (EDRS) belongs to the category of information sy...No matter whether a system is operated manually or automatically controlled by computer, the system’s vulnerability always exists. Earthquake Disaster Reduction System (EDRS) belongs to the category of information system. According to the features of security for EDRS, the steps and the methods on how to build the EDRS security were analyzed. The EDRS security features, security strategies and security measures were also given through a distributed EDRS skeleton that has been applied. Because there was still no appointed and authoritative agency or organization to certify and test EDRS security in China, a national information technology security certification center was introduced and suggested for the certification of the EDRS security. Finally, several discussions and tendencies for the EDRS development were presented.展开更多
Southeast China coastal areas belong to subtropical monsoon climatic zone, thus easily affected by floods resulted from typhoons and rainstorms. Since the areas of river basins are small, rivers flood regulation capac...Southeast China coastal areas belong to subtropical monsoon climatic zone, thus easily affected by floods resulted from typhoons and rainstorms. Since the areas of river basins are small, rivers flood regulation capacities are low, and therefore flood hazard is grave. In this paper, taking the Yongjiang basin in southeast China as an example, the approaches and methods of geographic information system(GIS) applied to flood disaster control and reduction research on small basin are explored. On GIS help the rainfall runoff calculation model and the river channel flood routing model are developed. And the evaluating flood submerged area and the damage assessment models are built supported by digit elevation models. Lastly the decision support system on GIS supported for flood control in research basin has been set up. This greatly improves flood proofing decision making capacities in river basin, and provides valuable information and a mode for flood prevention and reduction in the medium and small basin. Meanwhile, the research indicates that technologies of GIS provide a powerful tool for flood disaster control.展开更多
Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amo...Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.展开更多
基金supported by the National Twelfth Five-year Technology Support Projects of China(Grant Nos.2009BAJ28B04,2011BAK07B01,2011BAJ08B03,and 2011BAJ08B05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51208017)+1 种基金Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation(Grant No.2012ZZ-17)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(Grant No.2011M500199)
文摘This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective.According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics,a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system.Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method,a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established.The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system.The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution.Meanwhile,a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm.The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China mainland.The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.
基金Supported by Key Scientific and Technological Project of Henan Province(082102140009)~~
文摘Using 3S technology, relying on earth-space three-dimensional agriculture disaster monitoring network, remote sensing monitoring model for agricultural disaster in Henan Province was established, and agricultural disaster monitoring system plat- form of Henan Province based on multi-souroe satellite data was further constructed, which realizes dynamic monitoring of agricultural disasters in Henan Province （drought, flood, snow cover and straw burning）.
基金Supported by Meteorological Key Technology Integration and Application Program in 2012(CAMGJ2012M34)Meteorological Key Technology Integration and Application Program in 2011(CMAGJ2011Z07)Hunan Key Program~~
文摘Based on technologies of GRADS, Delphi, WEB and an SQLServer, distri- bution system for major meteorological disasters early warning information in Hunan Province was established. The system consists of warning tips, early warning for different media and early warning query statistics and the network terminal of the system platform includes a business database server, a message platform database server, a sending server and a receiving terminal. The system enjoys some func- tions, such as examination by different users, on-time updating and effectiveness of flood prevention, construction of excessive warning channel, construction of compre-hensive warning information platform and further improvement of information distribution. The system provides references for prevention and reduction of important me- teorological disasters in Hunan.
基金Supported by National Scientific Department National Science and Technology Supporting Plan Scheme (2008BADB9B05-02)Guangdong Science Technology Plan Program (2010B010600037)Guangdong Ocean University Personnel Project (0512049)~~
文摘By analyzing the subtropics aquaculture present situation,the necessity of the construction of cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture,the research goal and the duty were expounded. The system structure and the frame were introduced in detail. Several key questions and their solutions of the cold disaster early warning system for subtropics aquaculture were put forward.
基金This paper was supported by the ＂National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences＂ under Grant No. G2006CB403600Knowledge Innovation for the 3rd Period,Chinese Academy of Sciences under Grant No. KZCX2-YW-220the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 40730952, 40575026, 40775051 respectively.
文摘Recent advances in studies of the structural characteristics and temporal-spatial variations of the East Asian monsoon （EAM） system and the impact of this system on severe climate disasters in China are reviewed. Previous studies have improved our understanding of the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures and the annual cycle of the EAM system and the water vapor transports in the EAM region. Many studies have shown that the EAM system is a relatively independent subsystem of the Asian- Australian monsoon system, and that there exists an obvious quasi-biennial oscillation with a meridional tripole pattern distribution in the interannual variations of the EAM system. Further analyses of the basic physical processes, both internal and external, that influence the variability of the EAM system indicate that the EAM system may be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, referred to the EAM climate system in this paper. Further, the paper discusses how the interaction and relationships among various components of this system can be described through the East Asia Pacific （EAP） teleconnection pattern and the teleconnection pattern of meridional upper-tropospheric wind anomalies along the westerly jet over East Asia. Such reasoning suggests that the occurrence of severe floods in the Yangtze and Hualhe River valleys and prolonged droughts in North China are linked, respectively~ to the background interannual and interdecadal variability of the EAM climate system. Besides, outstanding scientific issues related to the EAM system and its impact on climate disasters in China are also discussed.
文摘The study on humanity response to global environment change is a new direction in the research of global change science, of which an important aspect is to study the adaptation strategies of human being to environmental changes in different regions. One reasonable and scientific adaptation strategy is based on not only scientific assessment of the impact of environmental change on society, but also correct estimation of the public perception of environmental change, whereas the research on the latter is terribly weak. This paper intends to understand the personality difference in public perception of environment in the western China primarily by establishing the assessment index system of nation environmental perception and analyzing the results of questionnaire survey in some regions of Shaanxi Province. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The state of public perception of disaster is one of the foundations of constituting and enforcing reasonable adaptation strategy to environmental change. 2) The personality differences of public perception of disaster appear as follows: female disaster perception is stronger than male;the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of age characteristics is 20-30, 0-20, 40-50, 30-40, 50-60, 60 year old or over in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of educational characteristics is senior high school, college, illiterate, junior high school, primary school, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of occupation characteristics is student, farmer, teacher, worker and functionary, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of habitat characteristics is city, countryside, towns, and metropolis in turns.
基金Under the auspices of President Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(1999).
文摘ABSTRACT: This paper generalizes the makeup and forming dynamic mechanism of natural disaster systems, principles and methods of comprehensive division of natural disasters, as well as structure, function and up-build routes of map and file information visualization system (MFIVS). Taking the Changjiang(Yangtze) Valley as an example, on the basis of revealing up the integrated mechanism on the formations of its natural disasters and its distributing law, thereafter, the paper relies on the MFIVS technique, adopts two top-down and bottom-up approaches to study a comprehensive division of natural disasters. It is relatively objective and precise that the required division results include three natural disaster sections and nine natural disaster sub-sections, which can not only provide a scientific basis for utilizing natural resources and controlling natural disaster and environmental degradation, but also be illuminated to a concise, practical and effective technique on comprehensive division.
文摘In China, estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers. The disasters by combined effect of upper reach flood, storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstacles to the economic development of such cities. Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-storm surge-wave disaster, economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role in the sustainable development of coastal cities. There are three types of coastal cities for consideration. The first type of city is like Tianjin. The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood. The effect of storm surge is negligible, because in the estuary of the Haihe River, tidal locks are built. The Grey Markov Model (GMM) is used to forecast the flood peak level GMM combines the Grey system and the Markov theory into a high-precision model The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data. A synthetic model is established for economic assessment, risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation As a new contribution, a stochastic simulation technique is used to compute risk probability. At the same time, consideration is given to the effect of correlation between variables on risk probability. The second type of city is like Shanghai, where sometimes the combined effect of river flood peak and set storm surge is the most severe disaster. The water level of a 1000 yr. return period of the Huangpu river is used as the design criterion. The simulated combined water level of flood peak, storm surge and maximum astronomical tidal level of a 400 yr. return period is close to the conventional design water level of a return period of 1000 years. The third type of city is Like Qingdao, where the combined effect of the maximum astronomical tide, storm surge and waves bring about the most significant damage. With the stochastic simulation technique, different combinations of storm surge and waves at the 1% and 2% joint probability level are simulated for disaster prevention.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-306)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(90202007)
文摘Highways in mountainous areas are easy to be damaged by such natural disasters as debris flows and landslides and disaster reduction decision support system (DRDSS) is one of the important means to mitigate these disasters. Guided by the theories and technologies of debris flow and landslide reduction and supported by geographical information system (GIS), remote sensing and database techniques, a DRDSS against debris flow and landslide along highways in mountainous areas has been established on the basis of such principles as pertinence, systematicness, effectiveness, easy to use, open and expandability. The system consists of database, disaster analysis models and decisions on reduction of debris flows and landslides, mainly functioning to zone disaster dangerous degree, analyze debris flow activity, simulate debris flow deposition and diffusion, analyze landslide stability, select optimal highway renovation scheme and plan disaster prevention and control engineering. This system has been applied successfully to the debris flow and landslide treatment works along Palongzangbu Section of Sichuan-Tibet Highway.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3803000).
文摘According to news reports on severe earthquakes since 2008,a total of 51 cases with magnitudes of 6.0 or above were analyzed,and 14 frequently occurring secondary disasters were identified.A disaster chain model was developed using principles from complex network theory.The vulnerability and risk level of each edge in this model were calculated,and high-risk edges and disaster chains were identified.The analysis reveals that the edge“floods→building collapses”has the highest vulnerability.Implementing measures to mitigate this edge is crucial for delaying the spread of secondary disasters.The highest risk is associated with the edge“building collapses→casualties,”and increased risks are also identified for chains such as“earthquake→building collapses→casualties,”“earthquake→landslides and debris flows→dammed lakes,”and“dammed lakes→floods→building collapses.”Following an earthquake,the prompt implementation of measures is crucial to effectively disrupt these chains and minimize the damage from secondary disasters.
基金the Hi-tech Research and Development Program of China，the National Natural Science Foundation of China，the Beijing Natural Science Foundation，the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities，the Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Software Development Environment
文摘This paper proposes a content addres sable storage optimization method, VDeskCAS, for desktop virtualization storage based disaster backup storage system. The method implements a blocklevel storage optimization, by employing the algorithms of chunking image file into blocks, the blockffmger calculation and the block dedup li cation. A File system in Use Space （FUSE） based storage process for VDeskCAS is also introduced which optimizes current direct storage to suit our content addressable storage. An interface level modification makes our system easy to extend. Experiments on virtual desktop image files and normal files verify the effectiveness of our method and above 60% storage volume decrease is a chieved for Red Hat Enterprise Linux image files. Key words： disaster backup; desktop virtualization; storage optimization; content addressable storage
基金supported partially by AirForce Research Laboratory,the Office of the Secretary of Defense(OSD)(FA8750-15-2-0116)the National Science Foundation(NSF)(1832110)the National Institute of Aerospace and Langley(C16-2B00-NCAT)。
文摘Timely investigating post-disaster situations to locate survivors and secure hazardous sources is critical,but also very challenging and risky.Despite first responders putting their lives at risk in saving others,human-physical limits cause delays in response time,resulting in fatality and property damage.In this paper,we proposed and implemented a framework intended for creating collaboration between heterogeneous unmanned vehicles and first responders to make search and rescue operations safer and faster.The framework consists of unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),unmanned ground vehicles(UGVs),a cloud-based remote control station(RCS).A light-weight message queuing telemetry transport(MQTT)based communication is adopted for facilitating collaboration between autonomous systems.To effectively work under unfavorable disaster conditions,antenna tracker is developed as a tool to extend network coverage to distant areas,and mobile charging points for the UAVs are also implemented.The proposed framework’s performance is evaluated in terms of end-to-end delay and analyzed using architectural analysis and design language(AADL).Experimental measurements and simulation results show that the adopted communication protocol performs more efficiently than other conventional communication protocols,and the implemented UAV control mechanisms are functioning properly.Several scenarios are implemented to validate the overall effectiveness of the proposed framework and demonstrate possible use cases.
基金Supported by the 10th Five Year High-Tech Researchand Development Plan of China (2002AA1Z67101)
文摘Highly security-critical system should possess features of continuous service. We present a new Robust Disaster Recovery System Model （RDRSM）. Through strengthening the ability of safe communications, RDRSM guarantees the secure and reliable command on disaster recovery. Its self-supervision capability can monitor the integrality and security of disaster recovery system itself. By 2D and 3D rea-time visible platform provided by GIS, GPS and RS, the model makes the using, management and maintenance of disaster recovery system easier. RDRSM possesses predominant features of security, robustness and controllability. And it can be applied to highly security-critical environments such as E-government and bank. Conducted by RDRSM, an important E-government disaster recovery system has been constructed successfully. The feasibility of this model is verified by practice. We especially emphasize the significance of some components of the model, such as risk assessment, disaster recovery planning, system supervision and robust communication support.
基金finically supported by a project “Modeling Infrastructure Interdependency for Emergency Management Using a Network-Centric Spatial Decision Support System Approach” awarded jointly by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)the Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada (PSEPC) (No.JIIRP 312733-04)
文摘Critical infrastructures（CI） are designated sectors that if incapacitated or destroyed by natural disasters would have a serious impact on national security and economic and social welfare. Due to the interdependency of critical infrastructures failure of one infrastructure during a natural disaster such as earthquake or flood may cause failure of another and so on through a cascade or escalating effect. Quantification of these types of interdependencies between critical infrastructures is essential for effective response and management of resources for rescue, recovery, and restoration during times of crises. This paper proposes a new mathematical framework based on an asymmetric relation matrix constructed in a bottom-up approach for modeling and analyzing interdependencies of critical infrastructures. Asymmetric dependency matrices can be constructed using the asymmetric incidence coefficient based on node-level relationships defined between nodes for measuring the strength of interdependency between node and node, node and network, and networks and networks. These asymmetric matrices are further analyzed for ranking infrastructures in terms of their relative importance and for identifying nodes and infrastructure networks that play a critical role in chain effects among infrastructures involved in geo-disaster events such as flooding. Examples of interdependency analysis for the identification of vulnerabilities among fifteen national defense-related infrastructure sectors by the Australian government and a simulated example using the newly developed GIS-based network simulator Geo PN are used to validate and demonstrate the implementation and effectiveness of interdependency analysis methods in analyzing infrastructure interdependency during a flooding event.
基金supported by 2010 Natural Science foundation of China(81060160)2008 Natural Science Foundation of China(30860082)+1 种基金2009 Natural Science Foundation of China(090209)2010 Key Scientific and Technological Project of Hainan Province(zdxm20100043)
文摘Hainan is an island province in south China with a high frequency of unconventional emergencies due to its special geographic location and national military defense role.Given the limited transportation route from Hainan to the outside world,self-rescue is more important to Hainan Province than other provinces in China and it is therefore imperative to establish an independent, scientific as well as efficient provincal disaster medical system in Hainan.The regulatory role for vulnerability analysis/assessment has been demonstrated in establisment of disaster medical system in varoius countries and or regions.In this paper,we attempt to describe/propose how to adopt vulnerability assessment through mathematical modeling of major biophysical social vulnerability factors to establish an independent,scientific,effieicnt and comprehensive provincial disaster medical system in Hainan.
基金Supported by National Natural Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No.40671003)
文摘The article establishes the patterns of urban snow disaster system and disaster chain based on the theory of regional disaster system. The patterns indicate that urban snow disaster is exacerbated mainly through the traffic system. In addition, the paper sets up the vulnerability assessment index system and synthetically vulnerability assessment model of urban snow disaster which are mainly based on traffic system, and applies them in Chenzhou City. The results of assessment indicate that obvious geographical differences exist in the vulnerability of snow disaster bearing bodies: vulnerability of Chenzhou section of the Beijing-Zhuhai expressway is the highest in Chenzhou City, and the southeastern counties are more vulnerable than the northwest region. Furthermore, according to the snow disaster vulnerability dynamic process analysis, the vulnerability of Chenzhou City obviously increased in 2008 winter compared with that in 2007. Finally, the paper presents some suggestions for the locations of the emergency commands and the reserves of relief materials based on the evaluation results, and points out that disaster monitoring and relevant technical level should be strengthened for the minimization of traffic system's vulnerability.
基金Supported by Project of Shanxi Province Meteorological Bureau,China(SXKYBTQ20127437)
文摘The method of realizing meteorological and geological disaster forecast and early warning information system in Qixian County of Shanxi Province was studied. According to meteorological factor parameter of the geological disasters for many years in Qixian County Land Bureau, and data of average meteorological element parameters that corresponded by evolution of geological disaster region each year, evaluation algorithm model of the forecast and eady warning of geological disasters in Qixian County was obtained, and the database of meteorological factor of geological disaster was established. On this basis, WebGIS geographic information system based on C/S and B/S which could real-time monitor geological disaster region was studied and designed. After data analysis system could evaluate the geological disaster forecast and early warning and make the real-time and accurate early warning, which greatly improved the timeliness of meteorological geological disasters forecast and early warning in Qixian County. System set of data processing and forecast and early warning issued in one, to realize the dynamic information release function of grade of geological disaster early warning, and had the characteristics of easy sharing, real-time dynamic update.
文摘No matter whether a system is operated manually or automatically controlled by computer, the system’s vulnerability always exists. Earthquake Disaster Reduction System (EDRS) belongs to the category of information system. According to the features of security for EDRS, the steps and the methods on how to build the EDRS security were analyzed. The EDRS security features, security strategies and security measures were also given through a distributed EDRS skeleton that has been applied. Because there was still no appointed and authoritative agency or organization to certify and test EDRS security in China, a national information technology security certification center was introduced and suggested for the certification of the EDRS security. Finally, several discussions and tendencies for the EDRS development were presented.
文摘Southeast China coastal areas belong to subtropical monsoon climatic zone, thus easily affected by floods resulted from typhoons and rainstorms. Since the areas of river basins are small, rivers flood regulation capacities are low, and therefore flood hazard is grave. In this paper, taking the Yongjiang basin in southeast China as an example, the approaches and methods of geographic information system(GIS) applied to flood disaster control and reduction research on small basin are explored. On GIS help the rainfall runoff calculation model and the river channel flood routing model are developed. And the evaluating flood submerged area and the damage assessment models are built supported by digit elevation models. Lastly the decision support system on GIS supported for flood control in research basin has been set up. This greatly improves flood proofing decision making capacities in river basin, and provides valuable information and a mode for flood prevention and reduction in the medium and small basin. Meanwhile, the research indicates that technologies of GIS provide a powerful tool for flood disaster control.
基金support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41302244)
文摘Gas disasters always restrict the tunnel constructions in mountain area, which becomes a major geological barrier against the development of underground engineering. China is rich in coal resources and has a large amount of gas with a wide range of distribution. However, China experienced not only adverse effects on coal mining but also gas disasters in underground engineering construction, such as tunnels and chambers. With the increased number of tunnels passing through coal-bearing strata, the incidence of gas accidents is also rising. Therefore, the significance of preventing and mitigating gas disasters should be emphasized, and an effective risk assessment method for gas disasters should be established. On the basis of research on over 100 gas tunnels in China, a relatively ideal gas disaster risk assessment method and system for tunnels are established through the following measures. Firstly, geo-environmental conditions and gas situations were analyzed during construction. Secondly, qualitative analysis was combined with quantitative analysis. Finally, the influencing factors of gas disasters, including geological conditions, gas,and human factors, were investigated. The gas tunnel risk assessment system includes three levels:(1) the grading assessment of a gas tunnel during the planning stage,(2) the risk assessment of gas tunnel construction during the design and construction stages,(3) the gas tunnel outburst risk assessment during the coal uncovering stage. This system was applied to the dynamic assessment of gas disaster during the construction of the Zipingpu tunnel of Dujiangyan–Wenchuan Highway(in Sichuan, Southwest China). The assessment results were consistent with the actual excavation, which verified the rationality and feasibility of the system. The developed system was believed to be back-up and applied for risk assessment of gas disaster in the underground engineering construction.
