Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare I...The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare IoT(H-IoT)technology,which also provides proactive statistical findings and precise medical diagnoses that enhance healthcare performance.This study examines how ML might support IoT-based health care systems,namely in the areas of prognostic systems,disease detection,patient tracking,and healthcare operations control.The study looks at the benefits and drawbacks of several machine learning techniques for H-IoT applications.It also examines the fundamental problems,such as data security and cyberthreats,as well as the high processing demands that these systems face.Alongside this,the essay discusses the advantages of all the technologies,including machine learning,deep learning,and the Internet of Things,as well as the significant difficulties and problems that arise when integrating the technology into healthcare forecasts.展开更多
Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instabili...Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.展开更多
AIM:To evaluate long-term visual field(VF)prediction using K-means clustering in patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG).METHODS:Patients who underwent 24-2 VF tests≥10 were included in this study.Using 52 to...AIM:To evaluate long-term visual field(VF)prediction using K-means clustering in patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG).METHODS:Patients who underwent 24-2 VF tests≥10 were included in this study.Using 52 total deviation values(TDVs)from the first 10 VF tests of the training dataset,VF points were clustered into several regions using the hierarchical ordered partitioning and collapsing hybrid(HOPACH)and K-means clustering.Based on the clustering results,a linear regression analysis was applied to each clustered region of the testing dataset to predict the TDVs of the 10th VF test.Three to nine VF tests were used to predict the 10th VF test,and the prediction errors(root mean square error,RMSE)of each clustering method and pointwise linear regression(PLR)were compared.RESULTS:The training group consisted of 228 patients(mean age,54.20±14.38y;123 males and 105 females),and the testing group included 81 patients(mean age,54.88±15.22y;43 males and 38 females).All subjects were diagnosed with POAG.Fifty-two VF points were clustered into 11 and nine regions using HOPACH and K-means clustering,respectively.K-means clustering had a lower prediction error than PLR when n=1:3 and 1:4(both P≤0.003).The prediction errors of K-means clustering were lower than those of HOPACH in all sections(n=1:4 to 1:9;all P≤0.011),except for n=1:3(P=0.680).PLR outperformed K-means clustering only when n=1:8 and 1:9(both P≤0.020).CONCLUSION:K-means clustering can predict longterm VF test results more accurately in patients with POAG with limited VF data.展开更多
The technique of data mining was provided to predict gas disaster in view of the characteristics of coal mine gas disaster and feature knowledge based on gas disaster. The rough set theory was used to establish data m...The technique of data mining was provided to predict gas disaster in view of the characteristics of coal mine gas disaster and feature knowledge based on gas disaster. The rough set theory was used to establish data mining model of gas disaster prediction, and rough set attributes relations was discussed in prediction model of gas disaster to supplement the shortages of rough intensive reduction method by using information en- tropy criteria.The effectiveness and practicality of data mining technology in the prediction of gas disaster is confirmed through practical application.展开更多
Hydraulic support is the primary equipment used for surrounding rock control at fully mechanized mining faces.The load,location,and attitude of the hydraulic support are important sets of basis data to predict roof di...Hydraulic support is the primary equipment used for surrounding rock control at fully mechanized mining faces.The load,location,and attitude of the hydraulic support are important sets of basis data to predict roof disasters.This paper summarized and analyzed the status of coal mine safety accidents and the primary influencing factors of roof disasters.This work also proposed monitoring characteristic parameters of roof disasters based on support posture-load changes,such as the support location and support posture.The data feature decomposition method of the additive model was used with the monitoring load data of the hydraulic support in the Yanghuopan coal mine to effectively extract the trend,cycle period,and residuals,which provided the period weighting characteristics of the longwall face.The autoregressive,long-short term memory,and support vector regression algorithms were used to model and analyze the monitoring data to realize single-point predictions.The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)models were adopted to predict the support cycle load of the hydraulic support.The SARIMA model is shown to be better than the ARIMA model for load predictions in one support cycle,but the prediction effect of these two algorithms over a fracture cycle is poor.Therefore,we proposed a hydraulic support load prediction method based on multiple data cutting and a hydraulic support load template library.The constructed technical framework of the roof disaster intelligent prediction platform is based on this method to perform predictions and early warnings of roof disasters based on the load and posture monitoring information from the hydraulic support.展开更多
Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural...Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural hazards frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defence infrastructures should be of paramount importance influencing the economic development and a lot of lifes in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane (PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future ty-phoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards. Our first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, after then the model was used in “Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics” for Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic coasts, U.S. (OTC.1982). 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and CEVD has been developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD). 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas. 2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD 2006 predicted results.展开更多
In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future tren...In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future trend of flood calamities in the study area. Our findings indicate that overall the high-frequent flood disasters with middle to lower damage prevail at present. A series of dramatic flood waves will appear in the years of 2016, 2022, 2030 and 2042, particularly a destructive flood will occur between 2041 and 2045 in the Lower Jingjiang reaches. Typical of sensitive response to flood hazards in close association with its special geographical location, the lower Jingjiang segment hereby can reflect the development trend of floods in the middle Yangtze reaches. According to the results, a good fitness was revealed between the prediction and practical values. This actually hints that the topological grey method is an effective mathematical means of resolving problems containing uncertainty and indetermination, thus providing valuable information for the flood prediction in the middle Yangtze catchment.展开更多
The driving safety in the laneway is often controlled by multiple disaster sources which include fault fracture zone, water-bearing body, goaf and collapse column. The advanced prediction of them has become a hotspot....The driving safety in the laneway is often controlled by multiple disaster sources which include fault fracture zone, water-bearing body, goaf and collapse column. The advanced prediction of them has become a hotspot. Based on analysis of physical characteristics of the disaster sources and comparative evaluation of accuracy of the main advanced geophysical detection methods, we proposed a comprehen- sive judging criterion that tectonic interface can be judged by the elastic wave energy anomaly, strata water abundance can be discriminated by apparent resistivity response difference and establish a reason- able advanced prediction system. The results show that the concealed disaster sources are detected effec- tively with the accuracy rate of 80% if we use advanced prediction methods of integrated geophysics combined with correction of seismic and electromagnetic parameters, moreover, applying geological data, we may then distinguish types of the disaster sources and fulfill the qualitative forecast. Therefore, the advanced prediction system pays an important referential and instructive role in laneway driving project.展开更多
By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features ...By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.展开更多
This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first...This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and展开更多
Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley a...Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.展开更多
Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the p...Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.展开更多
Rock failure can cause serious geological disasters,and the non-extensive statistical features of electric potential(EP)are expected to provide valuable information for disaster prediction.In this paper,the uniaxial c...Rock failure can cause serious geological disasters,and the non-extensive statistical features of electric potential(EP)are expected to provide valuable information for disaster prediction.In this paper,the uniaxial compression experiments with EP monitoring were carried out on fine sandstone,marble and granite samples under four displacement rates.The Tsallis entropy q value of EPs is used to analyze the selforganization evolution of rock failure.Then the influence of displacement rate and rock type on q value are explored by mineral structure and fracture modes.A self-organized critical prediction method with q value is proposed.The results show that the probability density function(PDF)of EPs follows the q-Gaussian distribution.The displacement rate is positively correlated with q value.With the displacement rate increasing,the fracture mode changes,the damage degree intensifies,and the microcrack network becomes denser.The influence of rock type on q value is related to the burst intensity of energy release and the crack fracture mode.The q value of EPs can be used as an effective prediction index for rock failure like b value of acoustic emission(AE).The results provide useful reference and method for the monitoring and early warning of geological disasters.展开更多
In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhance...In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.展开更多
Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values pred...Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values predictive of incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 702 women diagnosed with first-trimester missed miscarriage between January 2020 and May 2023.Demographic characteristics and ultrasound parameters were systematically recorded.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to establish optimal sonographic cutoff values for predicting incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Results:146 patients received medical treatment(mifepristone and misoprostol)and 556 underwent surgical curettage.At the 1-month follow-up,the medical group showed significantly greater endometrial thickness and longer postoperative bleeding duration than the surgical group(P<0.05).The menstrual volume reduction rate(23.56%)was significantly lower in the medical group than in the surgical group.The incomplete abortion rate was higher in the medical group(17.12%,25/146)than in the surgical group(2.88%,16/556).Among the medical group,14 patients(9.59%)required curettage due to incomplete abortion,while 11 cases resolved spontaneously after prolonged medication.ROC curve analysis identified two cut-off values indicating the need for surgical intervention:endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h post-medical abortion,and residual mass diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion.Conclusions:Medical management of first-trimester missed miscarriage using mifepristone-misoprostol demonstrates comparable efficacy to surgical curettage.An endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h or residual tissue diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion should prompt consideration of incomplete abortion.展开更多
Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditiona...Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.展开更多
Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various as...Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.展开更多
Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Reg...Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
文摘The integration of machine learning(ML)technology with Internet of Things(IoT)systems produces essential changes in healthcare operations.Healthcare personnel can track patients around the clock thanks to healthcare IoT(H-IoT)technology,which also provides proactive statistical findings and precise medical diagnoses that enhance healthcare performance.This study examines how ML might support IoT-based health care systems,namely in the areas of prognostic systems,disease detection,patient tracking,and healthcare operations control.The study looks at the benefits and drawbacks of several machine learning techniques for H-IoT applications.It also examines the fundamental problems,such as data security and cyberthreats,as well as the high processing demands that these systems face.Alongside this,the essay discusses the advantages of all the technologies,including machine learning,deep learning,and the Internet of Things,as well as the significant difficulties and problems that arise when integrating the technology into healthcare forecasts.
基金Supported by the National Defense Basic Scientific Research Program of China.
文摘Amphibious vehicles are more prone to attitude instability compared to ships,making it crucial to develop effective methods for monitoring instability risks.However,large inclination events,which can lead to instability,occur frequently in both experimental and operational data.This infrequency causes events to be overlooked by existing prediction models,which lack the precision to accurately predict inclination attitudes in amphibious vehicles.To address this gap in predicting attitudes near extreme inclination points,this study introduces a novel loss function,termed generalized extreme value loss.Subsequently,a deep learning model for improved waterborne attitude prediction,termed iInformer,was developed using a Transformer-based approach.During the embedding phase,a text prototype is created based on the vehicle’s operation log data is constructed to help the model better understand the vehicle’s operating environment.Data segmentation techniques are used to highlight local data variation features.Furthermore,to mitigate issues related to poor convergence and slow training speeds caused by the extreme value loss function,a teacher forcing mechanism is integrated into the model,enhancing its convergence capabilities.Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method,demonstrating its ability to handle data imbalance challenges.Specifically,the model achieves over a 60%improvement in root mean square error under extreme value conditions,with significant improvements observed across additional metrics.
基金Supported by the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute(KHIDI),the Ministry of Health&Welfare,Republic of Korea(No.RS-2020-KH088726)the Patient-Centered Clinical Research Coordinating Center(PACEN),the Ministry of Health and Welfare,Republic of Korea(No.HC19C0276)the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF),the Korea Government(MSIT)(No.RS-2023-00247504).
文摘AIM:To evaluate long-term visual field(VF)prediction using K-means clustering in patients with primary open angle glaucoma(POAG).METHODS:Patients who underwent 24-2 VF tests≥10 were included in this study.Using 52 total deviation values(TDVs)from the first 10 VF tests of the training dataset,VF points were clustered into several regions using the hierarchical ordered partitioning and collapsing hybrid(HOPACH)and K-means clustering.Based on the clustering results,a linear regression analysis was applied to each clustered region of the testing dataset to predict the TDVs of the 10th VF test.Three to nine VF tests were used to predict the 10th VF test,and the prediction errors(root mean square error,RMSE)of each clustering method and pointwise linear regression(PLR)were compared.RESULTS:The training group consisted of 228 patients(mean age,54.20±14.38y;123 males and 105 females),and the testing group included 81 patients(mean age,54.88±15.22y;43 males and 38 females).All subjects were diagnosed with POAG.Fifty-two VF points were clustered into 11 and nine regions using HOPACH and K-means clustering,respectively.K-means clustering had a lower prediction error than PLR when n=1:3 and 1:4(both P≤0.003).The prediction errors of K-means clustering were lower than those of HOPACH in all sections(n=1:4 to 1:9;all P≤0.011),except for n=1:3(P=0.680).PLR outperformed K-means clustering only when n=1:8 and 1:9(both P≤0.020).CONCLUSION:K-means clustering can predict longterm VF test results more accurately in patients with POAG with limited VF data.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(70572070)the Liaoning Province Talents Fund Projects(2005219005)the Technology Key Project of Liaoning Province(2006220019)
文摘The technique of data mining was provided to predict gas disaster in view of the characteristics of coal mine gas disaster and feature knowledge based on gas disaster. The rough set theory was used to establish data mining model of gas disaster prediction, and rough set attributes relations was discussed in prediction model of gas disaster to supplement the shortages of rough intensive reduction method by using information en- tropy criteria.The effectiveness and practicality of data mining technology in the prediction of gas disaster is confirmed through practical application.
基金The study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China of basic theory research on digital coal mine and intelligent mining(51834006)study on stress,cyclic osmotic pressure and corrosion coupling damage mechanism of coal pillar dam for coalmine underground reservoir(52004124)study on the progressive evolution mechanism of overburden fracture and ore pressure in fully mechanized mining with super high mining height under three field perspectives(51874175)。
文摘Hydraulic support is the primary equipment used for surrounding rock control at fully mechanized mining faces.The load,location,and attitude of the hydraulic support are important sets of basis data to predict roof disasters.This paper summarized and analyzed the status of coal mine safety accidents and the primary influencing factors of roof disasters.This work also proposed monitoring characteristic parameters of roof disasters based on support posture-load changes,such as the support location and support posture.The data feature decomposition method of the additive model was used with the monitoring load data of the hydraulic support in the Yanghuopan coal mine to effectively extract the trend,cycle period,and residuals,which provided the period weighting characteristics of the longwall face.The autoregressive,long-short term memory,and support vector regression algorithms were used to model and analyze the monitoring data to realize single-point predictions.The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)and autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)models were adopted to predict the support cycle load of the hydraulic support.The SARIMA model is shown to be better than the ARIMA model for load predictions in one support cycle,but the prediction effect of these two algorithms over a fracture cycle is poor.Therefore,we proposed a hydraulic support load prediction method based on multiple data cutting and a hydraulic support load template library.The constructed technical framework of the roof disaster intelligent prediction platform is based on this method to perform predictions and early warnings of roof disasters based on the load and posture monitoring information from the hydraulic support.
文摘Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural hazards frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defence infrastructures should be of paramount importance influencing the economic development and a lot of lifes in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane (PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future ty-phoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards. Our first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, after then the model was used in “Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics” for Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic coasts, U.S. (OTC.1982). 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and CEVD has been developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD). 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas. 2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD 2006 predicted results.
文摘In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future trend of flood calamities in the study area. Our findings indicate that overall the high-frequent flood disasters with middle to lower damage prevail at present. A series of dramatic flood waves will appear in the years of 2016, 2022, 2030 and 2042, particularly a destructive flood will occur between 2041 and 2045 in the Lower Jingjiang reaches. Typical of sensitive response to flood hazards in close association with its special geographical location, the lower Jingjiang segment hereby can reflect the development trend of floods in the middle Yangtze reaches. According to the results, a good fitness was revealed between the prediction and practical values. This actually hints that the topological grey method is an effective mathematical means of resolving problems containing uncertainty and indetermination, thus providing valuable information for the flood prediction in the middle Yangtze catchment.
基金support for this work provided by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (No. BK2009095)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51004102)+1 种基金the National Science & Technology Support Project of 11th Five-Year Plan ofChina (No. 2007BAK24B03)the State Basic Research and Development Program of China (No. 2007CB209400)
文摘The driving safety in the laneway is often controlled by multiple disaster sources which include fault fracture zone, water-bearing body, goaf and collapse column. The advanced prediction of them has become a hotspot. Based on analysis of physical characteristics of the disaster sources and comparative evaluation of accuracy of the main advanced geophysical detection methods, we proposed a comprehen- sive judging criterion that tectonic interface can be judged by the elastic wave energy anomaly, strata water abundance can be discriminated by apparent resistivity response difference and establish a reason- able advanced prediction system. The results show that the concealed disaster sources are detected effec- tively with the accuracy rate of 80% if we use advanced prediction methods of integrated geophysics combined with correction of seismic and electromagnetic parameters, moreover, applying geological data, we may then distinguish types of the disaster sources and fulfill the qualitative forecast. Therefore, the advanced prediction system pays an important referential and instructive role in laneway driving project.
文摘By means of analysing the historical data of flood-drought grade series in the past 2000 years(A.D.0-1900),especially in the last 5000 years (1470-1900) , this paper revealed the spatial-temporaldistribution features of severe flood and drought in Yellow River Valley. Statistical methods of varianceanalysis, probability transition and the principles of scale correspondence were employed tocomprehensively predicate 90's tendency of severe flood and drought in the Yellow River Valley. In addi-tion, this paper pointed out the possible breaching dikes, sectors and the flooding ranges by future's se-vere flood, meanwhile estimating the associated economic losses and impact to environment.
文摘This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and
基金supported by the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274326)the China Baowu Low Carbon Metallurgy Innovation Foundation(No.BWLCF202109)the Seventh Batch of Ten Thousand Talents Plan of China(No.ZX20220553).
文摘Sinter is the core raw material for blast furnaces.Flue pressure,which is an important state parameter,affects sinter quality.In this paper,flue pressure prediction and optimization were studied based on the shapley additive explanation(SHAP)to predict the flue pressure and take targeted adjustment measures.First,the sintering process data were collected and processed.A flue pressure prediction model was then constructed after comparing different feature selection methods and model algorithms using SHAP+extremely random-ized trees(ET).The prediction accuracy of the model within the error range of±0.25 kPa was 92.63%.SHAP analysis was employed to improve the interpretability of the prediction model.The effects of various sintering operation parameters on flue pressure,the relation-ship between the numerical range of key operation parameters and flue pressure,the effect of operation parameter combinations on flue pressure,and the prediction process of the flue pressure prediction model on a single sample were analyzed.A flue pressure optimization module was also constructed and analyzed when the prediction satisfied the judgment conditions.The operating parameter combination was then pushed.The flue pressure was increased by 5.87%during the verification process,achieving a good optimization effect.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51767017)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(18JR3RA133)the Industrial Support and Guidance Project of Universities in Gansu Province(2022CYZC-22).
文摘Photovoltaic (PV) modules, as essential components of solar power generation systems, significantly influence unitpower generation costs.The service life of these modules directly affects these costs. Over time, the performanceof PV modules gradually declines due to internal degradation and external environmental factors.This cumulativedegradation impacts the overall reliability of photovoltaic power generation. This study addresses the complexdegradation process of PV modules by developing a two-stage Wiener process model. This approach accountsfor the distinct phases of degradation resulting from module aging and environmental influences. A powerdegradation model based on the two-stage Wiener process is constructed to describe individual differences inmodule degradation processes. To estimate the model parameters, a combination of the Expectation-Maximization(EM) algorithm and the Bayesian method is employed. Furthermore, the Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) isutilized to identify critical change points in PV module degradation trajectories. To validate the universality andeffectiveness of the proposed method, a comparative analysis is conducted against other established life predictiontechniques for PV modules.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC3004705)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52074280,52227901 and 52204249)+1 种基金the Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(No.KYCX24_2913)the Graduate Innovation Program of China University of Mining and Technology(No.2024WLKXJ139).
文摘Rock failure can cause serious geological disasters,and the non-extensive statistical features of electric potential(EP)are expected to provide valuable information for disaster prediction.In this paper,the uniaxial compression experiments with EP monitoring were carried out on fine sandstone,marble and granite samples under four displacement rates.The Tsallis entropy q value of EPs is used to analyze the selforganization evolution of rock failure.Then the influence of displacement rate and rock type on q value are explored by mineral structure and fracture modes.A self-organized critical prediction method with q value is proposed.The results show that the probability density function(PDF)of EPs follows the q-Gaussian distribution.The displacement rate is positively correlated with q value.With the displacement rate increasing,the fracture mode changes,the damage degree intensifies,and the microcrack network becomes denser.The influence of rock type on q value is related to the burst intensity of energy release and the crack fracture mode.The q value of EPs can be used as an effective prediction index for rock failure like b value of acoustic emission(AE).The results provide useful reference and method for the monitoring and early warning of geological disasters.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.under Grant GDKJXM20222357.
文摘In recent times,the impact of typhoon disasters on integrated energy active distribution networks(IEADNs)has received increasing attention,particularly,in terms of effective cascading fault path prediction and enhanced fault recovery performance.In this study,we propose a modified ORNL-PSerc-Alaska(OPA)model based on optimal power flow(OPF)calculation to forecast IEADN cascading fault paths.We first established the topology and operational model of the IEADNs,and the typical fault scenario was chosen according to the component fault probability and information entropy.The modified OPA model consisted of two layers:An upper-layer model to determine the cascading fault location and a lower-layer model to calculate the OPF by using Yalmip and CPLEX and provide the data to update the upper-layer model.The approach was validated via the modified IEEE 33-node distribution system and two real IEADNs.Simulation results showed that the fault trend forecasted by the novel OPA model corresponded well with the development and movement of the typhoon above the IEADN.The proposed model also increased the load recovery rate by>24%compared to the traditional OPA model.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project approval number 82201825).
文摘Objective:To compare the clinical efficacy of mifepristone-misoprostol medical management versus surgical curettage for first-trimester missed miscarriage,and to establish evidence-based sonographic cutoff values predictive of incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of 702 women diagnosed with first-trimester missed miscarriage between January 2020 and May 2023.Demographic characteristics and ultrasound parameters were systematically recorded.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis was performed to establish optimal sonographic cutoff values for predicting incomplete abortion requiring surgical intervention.Results:146 patients received medical treatment(mifepristone and misoprostol)and 556 underwent surgical curettage.At the 1-month follow-up,the medical group showed significantly greater endometrial thickness and longer postoperative bleeding duration than the surgical group(P<0.05).The menstrual volume reduction rate(23.56%)was significantly lower in the medical group than in the surgical group.The incomplete abortion rate was higher in the medical group(17.12%,25/146)than in the surgical group(2.88%,16/556).Among the medical group,14 patients(9.59%)required curettage due to incomplete abortion,while 11 cases resolved spontaneously after prolonged medication.ROC curve analysis identified two cut-off values indicating the need for surgical intervention:endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h post-medical abortion,and residual mass diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion.Conclusions:Medical management of first-trimester missed miscarriage using mifepristone-misoprostol demonstrates comparable efficacy to surgical curettage.An endometrial thickness>1.21 cm at 24 h or residual tissue diameter>0.95 cm at 7 days post-medical abortion should prompt consideration of incomplete abortion.
基金supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.U2468201 and 62221001ZTE Industry-University-Institute Cooperation Funds under Grant No.IA20240420002。
文摘Accurate channel state information(CSI)is crucial for 6G wireless communication systems to accommodate the growing demands of mobile broadband services.In massive multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems,traditional CSI feedback approaches face challenges such as performance degradation due to feedback delay and channel aging caused by user mobility.To address these issues,we propose a novel spatio-temporal predictive network(STPNet)that jointly integrates CSI feedback and prediction modules.STPNet employs stacked Inception modules to learn the spatial correlation and temporal evolution of CSI,which captures both the local and the global spatiotemporal features.In addition,the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)adaptive module is designed to adapt flexibly to diverse feedback channel conditions.Simulation results demonstrate that STPNet outperforms existing channel prediction methods under various channel conditions.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(32122066,32201855)STI2030—Major Projects(2023ZD04076).
文摘Phenotypic prediction is a promising strategy for accelerating plant breeding.Data from multiple sources(called multi-view data)can provide complementary information to characterize a biological object from various aspects.By integrating multi-view information into phenotypic prediction,a multi-view best linear unbiased prediction(MVBLUP)method is proposed in this paper.To measure the importance of multiple data views,the differential evolution algorithm with an early stopping mechanism is used,by which we obtain a multi-view kinship matrix and then incorporate it into the BLUP model for phenotypic prediction.To further illustrate the characteristics of MVBLUP,we perform the empirical experiments on four multi-view datasets in different crops.Compared to the single-view method,the prediction accuracy of the MVBLUP method has improved by 0.038–0.201 on average.The results demonstrate that the MVBLUP is an effective integrative prediction method for multi-view data.
基金the funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52308340)Chongqing Talent Innovation and Entrepreneurship Demonstration Team Project(Grant No.cstc2024ycjh-bgzxm0012)the Science and Technology Projects supported by China Coal Technology and Engineering Chongqing Design and Research Institute(Group)Co.,Ltd..(Grant No.H20230317)。
文摘Influenced by complex external factors,the displacement-time curve of reservoir landslides demonstrates both short-term and long-term diversity and dynamic complexity.It is difficult for existing methods,including Regression models and Neural network models,to perform multi-characteristic coupled displacement prediction because they fail to consider landslide creep characteristics.This paper integrates the creep characteristics of landslides with non-linear intelligent algorithms and proposes a dynamic intelligent landslide displacement prediction method based on a combination of the Biological Growth model(BG),Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),and Long ShortTerm Memory Network(LSTM).This prediction approach improves three different biological growth models,thereby effectively extracting landslide creep characteristic parameters.Simultaneously,it integrates external factors(rainfall and reservoir water level)to construct an internal and external comprehensive dataset for data augmentation,which is input into the improved CNN-LSTM model.Thereafter,harnessing the robust feature extraction capabilities and spatial translation invariance of CNN,the model autonomously captures short-term local fluctuation characteristics of landslide displacement,and combines LSTM's efficient handling of long-term nonlinear temporal data to improve prediction performance.An evaluation of the Liangshuijing landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area indicates that BG-CNN-LSTM exhibits high prediction accuracy,excellent generalization capabilities when dealing with various types of landslides.The research provides an innovative approach to achieving the whole-process,realtime,high-precision displacement predictions for multicharacteristic coupled landslides.
