In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great atte ntion to the land subsidence caused by coal cutting. In China, because of the de nse population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is mor...In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great atte ntion to the land subsidence caused by coal cutting. In China, because of the de nse population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more serious. A fter a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a co mprehensive and systematical account on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endangered land, b uildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and social environment. In order to lessen the hazard of land sub sidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the collapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination m ining system, or high-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinfor cing or moving certain buildings should also be taken to reduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for farming, measures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, ex cavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.展开更多
Due to the common influence of tropical depression,the low pressure trough and the cold air,the strong precipitation synoptic process occurred in Hainan Island on October 22,2009.It caused that the landslide geologica...Due to the common influence of tropical depression,the low pressure trough and the cold air,the strong precipitation synoptic process occurred in Hainan Island on October 22,2009.It caused that the landslide geological disaster happened in several spots in the eastern line highway.By analyzing on the generation reason of landslide,it gained that the landslide which happened in several spots in the eastern line highway was caused by the common effect of special topographical condition,strong wind and rainstorm.The strong precipitation and strong wind which were generated by the tropical depression were the direct reasons which induced the rainstorm type landslide in the eastern line highway.展开更多
Various physical parameters, including gas concentrations (O2, CO, CH4, and H2) and temperatures at dif- ferent air velocities, were determined for full scale wood fires in the Chongqing Coal Research Institute fire t...Various physical parameters, including gas concentrations (O2, CO, CH4, and H2) and temperatures at dif- ferent air velocities, were determined for full scale wood fires in the Chongqing Coal Research Institute fire test tunnel. Both experimental measurements and numerical simulations are discussed. The numer- ical analysis was performed with the computational fluid dynamics software package ''FLUENT''. The results show that the experimental data agree with the simulation results. The results verify that Roberts' theory of burning is correct. They also prove that the air velocity is the key factor that determines the type of combustion. Also, it is shown that secondary disasters are unlikely for oxygen rich combustion with a limited fire load.展开更多
Distribution networks denote important public infrastructure necessary for people’s livelihoods.However,extreme natural disasters,such as earthquakes,typhoons,and mudslides,severely threaten the safe and stable opera...Distribution networks denote important public infrastructure necessary for people’s livelihoods.However,extreme natural disasters,such as earthquakes,typhoons,and mudslides,severely threaten the safe and stable operation of distribution networks and power supplies needed for daily life.Therefore,considering the requirements for distribution network disaster prevention and mitigation,there is an urgent need for in-depth research on risk assessment methods of distribution networks under extreme natural disaster conditions.This paper accessesmultisource data,presents the data quality improvement methods of distribution networks,and conducts data-driven active fault diagnosis and disaster damage analysis and evaluation using data-driven theory.Furthermore,the paper realizes real-time,accurate access to distribution network disaster information.The proposed approach performs an accurate and rapid assessment of cross-sectional risk through case study.The minimal average annual outage time can be reduced to 3 h/a in the ring network through case study.The approach proposed in this paper can provide technical support to the further improvement of the ability of distribution networks to cope with extreme natural disasters.展开更多
Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerabili...Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the weight of each impact factor was calculated by using AHP. By using spatial analysis and statistical function of GIS,the integrated risk chart of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin was obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan,the central northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu Province. Due to higher fatalness of inducing factors in southern Henan,there was high risk in the region. Central Anhui and east Jiangsu were not only high-fatalness zones but also high vulnerability zones of population and economy.展开更多
Analysis of a disaster event can identify strengths and weaknesses of the response implemented by the disaster management system;however, analysis does not typically occur until after the response phase is over.The re...Analysis of a disaster event can identify strengths and weaknesses of the response implemented by the disaster management system;however, analysis does not typically occur until after the response phase is over.The result is that knowledge gained can only benefit future responses rather than the response under investigation. This article argues that there is an opportunity to conduct analysis while the response is operational due to the increasing availability of information within hours and days of a disaster event. Hence, this article introduces a methodology for analyzing publicly communicated disaster response information in near-real-time. A classification scheme for the disaster information needs of the public has been developed to facilitate analysis and has led to the establishment of best observed practice standards for content and timeliness. By comparing the information shared with the public within days of a disaster to these standards,information gaps are revealed that can be investigated further. The result is identification of potential deficiencies in communicating critical disaster response information to the public at a time when they can still be corrected.展开更多
Complex disaster systems involve various components and mechanisms that could interact in complex ways and change over time,leading to significant deep uncertainty.Due to deep uncertainty,decision-makers have severe i...Complex disaster systems involve various components and mechanisms that could interact in complex ways and change over time,leading to significant deep uncertainty.Due to deep uncertainty,decision-makers have severe inadequacy of knowledge and often encounter unpredictable surprises that may emerge in the future,thus making it difficult to specify appropriate models and parameters to describe the system of interest.In this paper,we propose a dynamic exploratory hybrid modeling framework that fits data,models,and computational ex-periments together to simulate complex systems with deep uncertainty.In the framework,one needs to develop multiple plausible models from a hybrid modeling perspective and perform enormous computational experi-ments to explore the diversity of future scenarios.Real-time data is then incorporated into diverse forecasts to dynamically adjust the simulation system.This ultimately enables an ongoing modeling and analysis process in which deep uncertainty would be gradually mitigated.Our approach has been applied to a human-involved car-following system simulation under complex traffic conditions.The results show that the proposed approach can improve the prediction accuracy while enhancing the sensitivity of the simulation system to uncertain changes in the system of interest.展开更多
文摘In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great atte ntion to the land subsidence caused by coal cutting. In China, because of the de nse population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more serious. A fter a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a co mprehensive and systematical account on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endangered land, b uildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and social environment. In order to lessen the hazard of land sub sidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the collapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination m ining system, or high-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinfor cing or moving certain buildings should also be taken to reduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for farming, measures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, ex cavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.
基金Supported by The Spreading Scheme of China Meteorological Administration (CMATG2009MS18)Hainan Natural Fund Project (40883)
文摘Due to the common influence of tropical depression,the low pressure trough and the cold air,the strong precipitation synoptic process occurred in Hainan Island on October 22,2009.It caused that the landslide geological disaster happened in several spots in the eastern line highway.By analyzing on the generation reason of landslide,it gained that the landslide which happened in several spots in the eastern line highway was caused by the common effect of special topographical condition,strong wind and rainstorm.The strong precipitation and strong wind which were generated by the tropical depression were the direct reasons which induced the rainstorm type landslide in the eastern line highway.
基金Financial support for this work provided by the National"Eleventh Five-Year" Key Scientific and Technological Support[Program (No. 2007BAK22B04)2008 independent task (No.SKLCRSM08B12)
文摘Various physical parameters, including gas concentrations (O2, CO, CH4, and H2) and temperatures at dif- ferent air velocities, were determined for full scale wood fires in the Chongqing Coal Research Institute fire test tunnel. Both experimental measurements and numerical simulations are discussed. The numer- ical analysis was performed with the computational fluid dynamics software package ''FLUENT''. The results show that the experimental data agree with the simulation results. The results verify that Roberts' theory of burning is correct. They also prove that the air velocity is the key factor that determines the type of combustion. Also, it is shown that secondary disasters are unlikely for oxygen rich combustion with a limited fire load.
文摘Distribution networks denote important public infrastructure necessary for people’s livelihoods.However,extreme natural disasters,such as earthquakes,typhoons,and mudslides,severely threaten the safe and stable operation of distribution networks and power supplies needed for daily life.Therefore,considering the requirements for distribution network disaster prevention and mitigation,there is an urgent need for in-depth research on risk assessment methods of distribution networks under extreme natural disaster conditions.This paper accessesmultisource data,presents the data quality improvement methods of distribution networks,and conducts data-driven active fault diagnosis and disaster damage analysis and evaluation using data-driven theory.Furthermore,the paper realizes real-time,accurate access to distribution network disaster information.The proposed approach performs an accurate and rapid assessment of cross-sectional risk through case study.The minimal average annual outage time can be reduced to 3 h/a in the ring network through case study.The approach proposed in this paper can provide technical support to the further improvement of the ability of distribution networks to cope with extreme natural disasters.
文摘Taking the rainstorm flood disaster of Huaihe River basin as the research object,according to the principles of risk assessment for natural disasters,starting from the fatalness of inducing factors and the vulnerability of hazard bearing body,the weight of each impact factor was calculated by using AHP. By using spatial analysis and statistical function of GIS,the integrated risk chart of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin was obtained. The results showed that the high risk areas of rainstorm flood disaster in Huaihe River basin mainly distributed in the southern part of Henan,the central northern part of Anhui and eastern part of Jiangsu Province. Due to higher fatalness of inducing factors in southern Henan,there was high risk in the region. Central Anhui and east Jiangsu were not only high-fatalness zones but also high vulnerability zones of population and economy.
文摘Analysis of a disaster event can identify strengths and weaknesses of the response implemented by the disaster management system;however, analysis does not typically occur until after the response phase is over.The result is that knowledge gained can only benefit future responses rather than the response under investigation. This article argues that there is an opportunity to conduct analysis while the response is operational due to the increasing availability of information within hours and days of a disaster event. Hence, this article introduces a methodology for analyzing publicly communicated disaster response information in near-real-time. A classification scheme for the disaster information needs of the public has been developed to facilitate analysis and has led to the establishment of best observed practice standards for content and timeliness. By comparing the information shared with the public within days of a disaster to these standards,information gaps are revealed that can be investigated further. The result is identification of potential deficiencies in communicating critical disaster response information to the public at a time when they can still be corrected.
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[72004141,72174102,72334003]the Guangdong Office of Philosophy and Social Science[GD23XGL115].
文摘Complex disaster systems involve various components and mechanisms that could interact in complex ways and change over time,leading to significant deep uncertainty.Due to deep uncertainty,decision-makers have severe inadequacy of knowledge and often encounter unpredictable surprises that may emerge in the future,thus making it difficult to specify appropriate models and parameters to describe the system of interest.In this paper,we propose a dynamic exploratory hybrid modeling framework that fits data,models,and computational ex-periments together to simulate complex systems with deep uncertainty.In the framework,one needs to develop multiple plausible models from a hybrid modeling perspective and perform enormous computational experi-ments to explore the diversity of future scenarios.Real-time data is then incorporated into diverse forecasts to dynamically adjust the simulation system.This ultimately enables an ongoing modeling and analysis process in which deep uncertainty would be gradually mitigated.Our approach has been applied to a human-involved car-following system simulation under complex traffic conditions.The results show that the proposed approach can improve the prediction accuracy while enhancing the sensitivity of the simulation system to uncertain changes in the system of interest.
