The de-manufacturing stage is an overlooked component of most current LCA （life cycle assessment） methodologies. Most of the current LCA techniques do not fully account for the usage of the product and end of life a...The de-manufacturing stage is an overlooked component of most current LCA （life cycle assessment） methodologies. Most of the current LCA techniques do not fully account for the usage of the product and end of life aspects. This paper introduces a comprehensive methodology that takes strong consideration of the inventory costs of use and end of life of the functional unit by combining manufacturing and de-manufacturing into the centerpiece of the hybrid analysis. In order to obtain this goal, a new disaggregated model was developed by enhancing current LCA hybrid methods related to life cycle inventory compilations. The new methodology is also compared to existing methodologies.展开更多
The conventional traffic demand forecasting methods based on revealed preference （RP） data are not able to predict the modal split. Passengers＇ stated intentions are indispensable for modal split forecasting and ev...The conventional traffic demand forecasting methods based on revealed preference （RP） data are not able to predict the modal split. Passengers＇ stated intentions are indispensable for modal split forecasting and evaluation of new traffic modes. This paper analyzed the biases and errors included in stated preference data, put forward the new stochastic utility functions, and proposed an unbiased disaggregate model and its approximate model based on the combination of RP and stated preference （SP） data, with analysis of the parameter estimation algorithm. The model was also used to forecast rail transit passenger volumes to the Beijing Capital International Airport and the shift ratios from current traffic modes to rail transit. Experimental results show that the model can greatly increase forecasting accuracy of the modal split ratio of current traffic modes and can accurately forecast the shift ratios from current modes to the new mode.展开更多
The authors argue that travel forecasting models should be dynamic and disaggregate in their representation of demand, supply, and supply-demand interactions, and propose a framework for such models. The proposed fram...The authors argue that travel forecasting models should be dynamic and disaggregate in their representation of demand, supply, and supply-demand interactions, and propose a framework for such models. The proposed framework consists of disaggregate activity-based representation of travel choices of individual motorists on the demand side integrated with disaggregate dynamic modeling of network performance, through vehicle-based traffic simulation models on the supply side. The demand model generates individual members of the population and assigns to them socioeconomic characteristics. The generated motorists maintain these characteristics when they are loaded on the network by the supply model. In an equilibrium setting, the framework lends itself to a fixed-point formulation to represent and resolve demand-supply interactions. The paper discusses some of the remaining development challenges and presents an example of an existing travel forecasting model system that incorporates many of the proposed elements.展开更多
This is the first study attempting to investigate the patterns of BRICS' imports and exports with five United Nations regional groups: the African, Asia-Pacific, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, and...This is the first study attempting to investigate the patterns of BRICS' imports and exports with five United Nations regional groups: the African, Asia-Pacific, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, and Western European and Others. A panel data gravity trade model with series from 2001 to 2016 was used to estimate the gravity variables in the models. The main results provide evidence that reinforced the dissimilarities in the foreign trade patterns of BRICS with these five regional groups. The econometric results substantiated that BRICS' foreign trade patterns are sensitive to changes in the economies of trading partners from the more developed regions. This is evidence for stronger economic ties between BRICS and the more developed regions such as Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. It also reveals the trade convergence of BRICS in these developed regions.展开更多
Conventional soil maps(CSMs)often have multiple soil types within a single polygon,which hinders the ability of machine learning to accurately predict soils.Soil disaggregation approaches are commonly used to improve ...Conventional soil maps(CSMs)often have multiple soil types within a single polygon,which hinders the ability of machine learning to accurately predict soils.Soil disaggregation approaches are commonly used to improve the spatial and attribute precision of CSMs.The approach disaggregation and harmonization of soil map units through resampled classification trees(DSMART)is popular but computationally intensive,as it generates and assigns synthetic samples to soil series based on the areal coverage information of CSMs.Alternatively,the disaggregation approach pure polygon disaggregation(PPD)assigns soil series based solely on the proportions of soil series in pure polygons in CSMs.This study compared these two disaggregation approaches by applying them to a CSM of Middlesex County,Ontario,Canada.Four different sampling methods were used:two sampling designs,simple random sampling(SRS)and conditional Latin hypercube sampling(cLHS),with two sample sizes(83100 and 19420 samples per sampling plan),both based on an area-weighted approach.Two machine learning algorithms(MLAs),C5.0 decision tree(C5.0)and random forest(RF),were applied to the disaggregation approaches to compare the disaggregation accuracy.The accuracy assessment utilized a set of 500 validation points obtained from the Middlesex County soil survey report.The MLA C5.0(Kappa index=0.58–0.63)showed better performance than RF(Kappa index=0.53–0.54)based on the larger sample size,and PPD with C5.0 based on the larger sample size was the best-performing(Kappa index=0.63)approach.Based on the smaller sample size,both cLHS(Kappa index=0.41–0.48)and SRS(Kappa index=0.40–0.47)produced similar accuracy results.The disaggregation approach PPD exhibited lower processing capacity and time demands(1.62–5.93 h)while yielding maps with lower uncertainty as compared to DSMART(2.75–194.2 h).For CSMs predominantly composed of pure polygons,utilizing PPD for soil series disaggregation is a more efficient and rational choice.However,DSMART is the preferable approach for disaggregating soil series that lack pure polygon representations in the CSMs.展开更多
During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on par...During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.展开更多
Agricultural investment project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem,as agricultural projects are easily influenced by various risk factors,and the evaluation information provided by decisionm...Agricultural investment project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem,as agricultural projects are easily influenced by various risk factors,and the evaluation information provided by decisionmakers usually involves uncertainty and inconsistency.Existing literature primarily employed direct preference elicitation methods to address such issues,necessitating a great cognitive effort on the part of decision-makers during evaluation,specifically,determining the weights of criteria.In this study,we propose an indirect preference elicitation method,known as a preference disaggregation method,to learn decision-maker preference models fromdecision examples.To enhance evaluation ease,decision-makers merely need to compare pairs of alternatives with which they are familiar,also known as reference alternatives.Probabilistic linguistic preference relations are employed to account for the presence of incomplete and uncertain information in such pairwise comparisons.To address the inconsistency among a group of decision-makers,we develop a pair of 0-1mixed integer programming models that consider both the semantics of linguistic terms and the belief degrees of decision-makers.Finally,we conduct a case study and comparative analysis.Results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed model in solving agricultural investment project selection problems with uncertain and inconsistent decision information.展开更多
The test floor effects seen in standardised tests lead to a standardised score of 1 or less with a flat profile that hides a child’s individual strengths and needs. The Griffiths III community of practitioners reques...The test floor effects seen in standardised tests lead to a standardised score of 1 or less with a flat profile that hides a child’s individual strengths and needs. The Griffiths III community of practitioners requested advice on the reporting of children’s development below the floor of the test, so that individual strengths and needs can be described. This paper reports the third phase of research following an earlier Scoping Review and a wider literature review. To confirm quality control, Phase 3 was conducted in a retrospective manner using the same methodology as the earlier phases but in a reverse direction. Peer reviewer comments and key elements from the Scoping Review and keywords from the publications were tabulated. Data analysis included a change of perspective to that of the child and their individual rights with respect to the literature themes already described in Phase 2. These confirmed that there is little specific guidance in the literature, but that computational advances for homogeneous populations and especially disaggregated data offer some solutions. A greater balance between broad biopsychosocial models and standardised models of assessment should be sought by practitioners together with the use of disaggregated data to highlight issues that pertain to individual subsets of results. This will ensure that the child’s right for their individual strengths and needs to be described together with a plan for management, may be met.展开更多
In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the...In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.展开更多
In this study, strong ground motion record （SGMR） selection based on Eta （~/） as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced flame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggr...In this study, strong ground motion record （SGMR） selection based on Eta （~/） as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced flame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon （ε） and the target Eta （η） values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR＇s. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter r/is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate c values.展开更多
Background： Different types of growth and yield models provide essential information for making informed decisions on how to manage forests. Whole-stand models often provide well-behaved outputs at the stand level, b...Background： Different types of growth and yield models provide essential information for making informed decisions on how to manage forests. Whole-stand models often provide well-behaved outputs at the stand level, but lack information on stand structures. Detailed information from individual-tree models and size-class models typically suffers from accumulation of errors. The disaggregation method, in assuming that predictions from a whole-stand model are reliable, partitions these outputs to individual trees. On the other hand, the combination method seeks to improve stand-level predictions from both whole-stand and individual-tree models by combining them. Methods： Data from 100 plots randomly selected from the Southwicte Seed Source Study of Ioblolly pine （Pinus taedo L） were used to evaluate the unadjusted individual-tree model against the disaggregation and combination methods. Results： Compared to the whole-stand model, the combination method did not show improvements in predicting stand attributes in this study. The combination method also did not perform as well as the disaggregation method in tree-level predictions. The disaggregation method provided the best predictions of tree- and stand-level survival and growth. Conclusions： The disaggregation approach provides a link between individual-tree models and whole-stand models, and should be considered as a better alternative to the unadjusted tree model.展开更多
A mixed system that includes poly（ethylene oxide） （PEO） and silica （SiO2） nanoparticles is prepared using two mixing methods. The interaction between PEO and the SiO2 nanoparticles in the dilute basic solution i...A mixed system that includes poly（ethylene oxide） （PEO） and silica （SiO2） nanoparticles is prepared using two mixing methods. The interaction between PEO and the SiO2 nanoparticles in the dilute basic solution is investigated using the dynamic tight scattering （DLS） and isothermal titration calorimetry （ITC） techniques. The DLS results show qualitatively that SiO2 nanoparticles interact with both random coils and aggregates of PEO through hydrogen bonding, and PEO-SiO2 complexes are formed. The degree of disaggregation of aggregates of PEO is readily adjusted by changing the concentration of SiO2 nanoparticle suspensions. Moreover, the ITC results also certify quantitatively the interaction between PEO and SiO2 nanoparticle, and give the evidence of formation of PEO-SiO2 complex.展开更多
Conventional soil maps generally contain one or more soil types within a single soil polygon.But their geographic locations within the polygon are not specified.This restricts current applications of the maps in site-...Conventional soil maps generally contain one or more soil types within a single soil polygon.But their geographic locations within the polygon are not specified.This restricts current applications of the maps in site-specific agricultural management and environmental modelling.We examined the utility of legacy pedon data for disaggregating soil polygons and the effectiveness of similarity-based prediction for making use of the under-or over-sampled legacy pedon data for the disaggregation.The method consisted of three steps.First,environmental similarities between the pedon sites and each location were computed based on soil formative environmental factors.Second,according to soil types of the pedon sites,the similarities were aggregated to derive similarity distribution for each soil type.Third,a hardening process was performed on the maps to allocate candidate soil types within the polygons.The study was conducted at the soil subgroup level in a semi-arid area situated in Manitoba,Canada.Based on 186 independent pedon sites,the evaluation of the disaggregated map of soil subgroups showed an overall accuracy of 67% and a Kappa statistic of 0.62.The map represented a better spatial pattern of soil subgroups in both detail and accuracy compared to a dominant soil subgroup map,which was commonly used in practice.Incorrect predictions mainly occurred in the agricultural plain area and the soil subgroups that are very similar in taxonomy,indicating that new environmental covariates need to be developed.We concluded that the combination of legacy pedon data with similarity-based prediction is an effective solution for soil polygon disaggregation.展开更多
Occurrence of neurofibrillary tangles of the tau protein is a hallmark of tau-related neurodegenerative diseases, i.e. Alzheimer's disease(AD) and frontotemporal dementia. The pathological mechanism underlying AD ...Occurrence of neurofibrillary tangles of the tau protein is a hallmark of tau-related neurodegenerative diseases, i.e. Alzheimer's disease(AD) and frontotemporal dementia. The pathological mechanism underlying AD remains poorly understood, and effective treatments are still unavailable to mitigate the disease.Inhibiting of tau aggregation and disrupting the existing fibrils are key targets in drug discovery towards preventing or curing AD. In this study, grape seed proanthocyanidins(GSPs) was found to effectively inhibit the repeat domain of tau(tau-RD) aggregation and disaggregate tau-RD fibrils in a concentrationdependent manner by inhibiting β-sheet formation of tau-RD. In cells, GSPs relieved cytotoxicity induced by tau-RD aggregates. Molecular dynamics simulations indicated that strong hydrogen bonding,hydrophobic interaction and π-π stacking between GSPs and tau-RD protein were major reasons why GSPs had high inhibitory activity on tau-RD fibrillogenesis. These results provide preliminary data to develop GSPs into medicines, foodstuffs or nutritional supplements for AD patients, suggesting that GSPs could be a candidate molecule in the drug design for AD therapeutics.展开更多
As the intermittency and uncertainty of photovoltaic(PV)power generation poses considerable challenges to the power system operation,accurate PV generation estimates are critical for the distribution operation,mainten...As the intermittency and uncertainty of photovoltaic(PV)power generation poses considerable challenges to the power system operation,accurate PV generation estimates are critical for the distribution operation,maintenance,and demand response program implementation because of the increasing usage of distributed PVs.Currently,most residential PVs are installed behind the meter,with only the net load available to the utilities.Therefore,a method for disaggregating the residential PV generation from the net load data is needed to enhance the grid-edge observability.In this study,an unsupervised PV capacity estimation method based on net metering data is proposed,for estimating the PV capacity in the customer’s premise based on the distribution characteristics of nocturnal and diurnal net load extremes.Then,the PV generation disaggregation method is presented.Based on the analysis of the correlation between the nocturnal and diurnal actual loads and the correlation between the PV capacity and their actual PV generation,the PV generation of customers is estimated by applying linear fitting of multiple typical solar exemplars and then disaggregating them into hourly-resolution power profiles.Finally,the anomalies of disaggregated PV power are calibrated and corrected using the estimated capacity.Experiment results on a real-world hourly dataset involving 260 customers show that the proposed PV capacity estimation method achieves good accuracy because of the advantages of robustness and low complexity.Compared with the state-of-the-art PV disaggregation algorithm,the proposed method exhibits a reduction of over 15%for the mean absolute percentage error and over 20%for the root mean square error.展开更多
Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental limitations.In this ...Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental limitations.In this study,we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles(MMEs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway(SSP-RCP)scenarios(SSP126(SSP1-RCP2.6),SSP245(SSP2-RCP4.5),SSP460(SSP4-RCP6.0),and SSP585(SSP5-RCP8.5))during 2015-2100.The bias correction and spatial disaggregation,water-thermal product index,and sensitivity analysis were used in this study.The results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts,whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal condition.Compared with the historical period,the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075,but degenerates during 2015-2044 and 2076-2100.The change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern regions.The result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario,while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal contradictions.This study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.展开更多
Islet amyloid polypeptide(IAPP),or amylin,has been identifi ed as a key factor in the development of type 2 diabetes(T2D).IAPP aggregates,which form amyloid fi brils,contribute to cytotoxicity of the pancreatic β-cel...Islet amyloid polypeptide(IAPP),or amylin,has been identifi ed as a key factor in the development of type 2 diabetes(T2D).IAPP aggregates,which form amyloid fi brils,contribute to cytotoxicity of the pancreatic β-cells,resulting in loss of function and subsequent reduction in insulin production.As a result,surviving β-cells overcompensate for this reduction of insulin production,further contributing to the loss of function because of increased stress,thus leading to insulin resistance.Endogenously,IAPP monomers function in a variety of roles;however,aggregation renders them non-functional.The use of naturally occurring compounds,including peptides and phytochemicals,has been explored as a way to mitigate or inhibit IAPP fi bril formation.This review discusses the structure,endogenous roles and mechanism of IAPP fi bril formation,recent advances on inhibitors of IAPP fi bril formation,and new insights on the future development and application of foodderived inhibitors towards T2D management.展开更多
Tree mortality plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems,yet it is one of the most difficult phenomena to accurately predict.Various modeling strategies have been developed to improve individual tr...Tree mortality plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems,yet it is one of the most difficult phenomena to accurately predict.Various modeling strategies have been developed to improve individual tree mortality predictions.One less explored strategy is the use of a multistage modeling approach.Potential improvements from this approach have remained largely unknown.In this study,we developed a novel multistage approach and compared its performance in individual tree mortality predictions with a more conventional approach using an identical individual tree mortality model formulation.Extensive permanent plot data(n=9442)covering the Acadian Region of North America and over multiple decades(1965–2014)were used in this study.Our results indicated that the model behavior with the multistage approach better depicted the observed mortality and showed a notable improvement over the conventional approach.The difference between the observed and predicted numbers of dead trees using the multistage approach was much smaller when compared with the conventional approach.In addition,tree survival probabilities predicted by the multistage approach generally were not significantly different from the observations,whereas the conventional approach consistently underestimated mortality across species and overestimated tree survival probabilities over the large range of DBH in the data.The new multistage approach also predictions of zero mortality in individual plots,a result not possible in conventional models.Finally,the new approach was more tolerant of modeling errors because it based estimates on ranked tree mortality rather than error-prone predicted values.Overall,this new multistage approach deserves to be considered and tested in future studies.展开更多
The Triassic fluvial sandstones of the Skagerrak Formation were deposited in a series of salt-walled mini-basins and act as important hydrocarbon reservoirs for several high-pressure, high-temperature（HPHT） fields i...The Triassic fluvial sandstones of the Skagerrak Formation were deposited in a series of salt-walled mini-basins and act as important hydrocarbon reservoirs for several high-pressure, high-temperature（HPHT） fields in the Central Graben, North Sea. The HPHT reservoirs exhibit excellent reservoir quality considering their depth of burial and hence have been of high interest for hydrocarbon exploration. This research uses a multidisciplinary approach to assess the Skagerrak Formation fluvial reservoir quality from the Seagull field incorporating core analysis, petrography, electron microscopy, XRD analysis, fluid inclusion appraisal and burial history modelling. Halokinesis and salt withdrawal at the margin of the saltwalled mini-basin induced early disaggregation bands and fractures at shallow burial and led to increased influx of meteoric water and clay mineral infiltration from overlying sedimentation. The density of disaggregation bands correlates with the occurrence and magnitude of pore-filling authigenic clay minerals, concentrated along the margin of the saltwalled mini-basin. The fluvial channel sandstones of the Skagerrak Formation are subject to strong intra-basinal spatial reservoir quality variations despite diagenesis and low vertical effective stress having played a favourable role in arresting porosity loss.展开更多
A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Hazard computations have been performed using the standard Cornell-McGuire approach based on the definition ...A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Hazard computations have been performed using the standard Cornell-McGuire approach based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic sources and expected maximum magnitudes, the authors take into consideration the possibility of large subduction interface earthquakes of magnitude 8.0-9.0 beneath the Barbados accretionary prism via application of a characteristic model and slip rates. The analysis has been conducted using a standard logic-tree approach. Uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the 5% of critical damping and the horizontal component of ground motion for rock site conditions setting 5 return periods （95, 475, 975, 2,475 and 4,975 years） and spectral accelerations for 34 structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s. The disaggregation results suggest that the magnitude-distance pair that dominates the hazard yields M 7.4 and 8.6 and a distance of 42.5 km in the Interface Subduction Zone beneath Barbados for the 475 and 975 years RP （return period）, respectively. An event with an M 8.0 at a distance of 107.5 km in the Intraplate Subduction Zone is the second scenario that dominates the hazard for both 475 and 975 years RP.展开更多
文摘The de-manufacturing stage is an overlooked component of most current LCA （life cycle assessment） methodologies. Most of the current LCA techniques do not fully account for the usage of the product and end of life aspects. This paper introduces a comprehensive methodology that takes strong consideration of the inventory costs of use and end of life of the functional unit by combining manufacturing and de-manufacturing into the centerpiece of the hybrid analysis. In order to obtain this goal, a new disaggregated model was developed by enhancing current LCA hybrid methods related to life cycle inventory compilations. The new methodology is also compared to existing methodologies.
文摘The conventional traffic demand forecasting methods based on revealed preference （RP） data are not able to predict the modal split. Passengers＇ stated intentions are indispensable for modal split forecasting and evaluation of new traffic modes. This paper analyzed the biases and errors included in stated preference data, put forward the new stochastic utility functions, and proposed an unbiased disaggregate model and its approximate model based on the combination of RP and stated preference （SP） data, with analysis of the parameter estimation algorithm. The model was also used to forecast rail transit passenger volumes to the Beijing Capital International Airport and the shift ratios from current traffic modes to rail transit. Experimental results show that the model can greatly increase forecasting accuracy of the modal split ratio of current traffic modes and can accurately forecast the shift ratios from current modes to the new mode.
文摘The authors argue that travel forecasting models should be dynamic and disaggregate in their representation of demand, supply, and supply-demand interactions, and propose a framework for such models. The proposed framework consists of disaggregate activity-based representation of travel choices of individual motorists on the demand side integrated with disaggregate dynamic modeling of network performance, through vehicle-based traffic simulation models on the supply side. The demand model generates individual members of the population and assigns to them socioeconomic characteristics. The generated motorists maintain these characteristics when they are loaded on the network by the supply model. In an equilibrium setting, the framework lends itself to a fixed-point formulation to represent and resolve demand-supply interactions. The paper discusses some of the remaining development challenges and presents an example of an existing travel forecasting model system that incorporates many of the proposed elements.
文摘This is the first study attempting to investigate the patterns of BRICS' imports and exports with five United Nations regional groups: the African, Asia-Pacific, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, and Western European and Others. A panel data gravity trade model with series from 2001 to 2016 was used to estimate the gravity variables in the models. The main results provide evidence that reinforced the dissimilarities in the foreign trade patterns of BRICS with these five regional groups. The econometric results substantiated that BRICS' foreign trade patterns are sensitive to changes in the economies of trading partners from the more developed regions. This is evidence for stronger economic ties between BRICS and the more developed regions such as Western Europe and Asia-Pacific. It also reveals the trade convergence of BRICS in these developed regions.
基金the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture,Food and Rural Affairs,Canada,who supported this project by providing updated soil information on Ontario and Middlesex Countysupported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada(No.RGPIN-2014-4100)。
文摘Conventional soil maps(CSMs)often have multiple soil types within a single polygon,which hinders the ability of machine learning to accurately predict soils.Soil disaggregation approaches are commonly used to improve the spatial and attribute precision of CSMs.The approach disaggregation and harmonization of soil map units through resampled classification trees(DSMART)is popular but computationally intensive,as it generates and assigns synthetic samples to soil series based on the areal coverage information of CSMs.Alternatively,the disaggregation approach pure polygon disaggregation(PPD)assigns soil series based solely on the proportions of soil series in pure polygons in CSMs.This study compared these two disaggregation approaches by applying them to a CSM of Middlesex County,Ontario,Canada.Four different sampling methods were used:two sampling designs,simple random sampling(SRS)and conditional Latin hypercube sampling(cLHS),with two sample sizes(83100 and 19420 samples per sampling plan),both based on an area-weighted approach.Two machine learning algorithms(MLAs),C5.0 decision tree(C5.0)and random forest(RF),were applied to the disaggregation approaches to compare the disaggregation accuracy.The accuracy assessment utilized a set of 500 validation points obtained from the Middlesex County soil survey report.The MLA C5.0(Kappa index=0.58–0.63)showed better performance than RF(Kappa index=0.53–0.54)based on the larger sample size,and PPD with C5.0 based on the larger sample size was the best-performing(Kappa index=0.63)approach.Based on the smaller sample size,both cLHS(Kappa index=0.41–0.48)and SRS(Kappa index=0.40–0.47)produced similar accuracy results.The disaggregation approach PPD exhibited lower processing capacity and time demands(1.62–5.93 h)while yielding maps with lower uncertainty as compared to DSMART(2.75–194.2 h).For CSMs predominantly composed of pure polygons,utilizing PPD for soil series disaggregation is a more efficient and rational choice.However,DSMART is the preferable approach for disaggregating soil series that lack pure polygon representations in the CSMs.
文摘During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.
文摘Agricultural investment project selection is a complex multi-criteria decision-making problem,as agricultural projects are easily influenced by various risk factors,and the evaluation information provided by decisionmakers usually involves uncertainty and inconsistency.Existing literature primarily employed direct preference elicitation methods to address such issues,necessitating a great cognitive effort on the part of decision-makers during evaluation,specifically,determining the weights of criteria.In this study,we propose an indirect preference elicitation method,known as a preference disaggregation method,to learn decision-maker preference models fromdecision examples.To enhance evaluation ease,decision-makers merely need to compare pairs of alternatives with which they are familiar,also known as reference alternatives.Probabilistic linguistic preference relations are employed to account for the presence of incomplete and uncertain information in such pairwise comparisons.To address the inconsistency among a group of decision-makers,we develop a pair of 0-1mixed integer programming models that consider both the semantics of linguistic terms and the belief degrees of decision-makers.Finally,we conduct a case study and comparative analysis.Results reveal the effectiveness of the proposed model in solving agricultural investment project selection problems with uncertain and inconsistent decision information.
文摘The test floor effects seen in standardised tests lead to a standardised score of 1 or less with a flat profile that hides a child’s individual strengths and needs. The Griffiths III community of practitioners requested advice on the reporting of children’s development below the floor of the test, so that individual strengths and needs can be described. This paper reports the third phase of research following an earlier Scoping Review and a wider literature review. To confirm quality control, Phase 3 was conducted in a retrospective manner using the same methodology as the earlier phases but in a reverse direction. Peer reviewer comments and key elements from the Scoping Review and keywords from the publications were tabulated. Data analysis included a change of perspective to that of the child and their individual rights with respect to the literature themes already described in Phase 2. These confirmed that there is little specific guidance in the literature, but that computational advances for homogeneous populations and especially disaggregated data offer some solutions. A greater balance between broad biopsychosocial models and standardised models of assessment should be sought by practitioners together with the use of disaggregated data to highlight issues that pertain to individual subsets of results. This will ensure that the child’s right for their individual strengths and needs to be described together with a plan for management, may be met.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41230527, 41175079, and 41025017)the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change
文摘In the last decade, a series of severe and extensive droughts have swept across Southwest China, resulting in tremendous economic losses, deaths, and disruption to society. Consequently, this study is motivated by the paramount importance of as- sessing future changes in drought in Southwest China. Precipitation is likely to decrease over most parts of Southwest China around the beginning of the century, followed by widespread precipitation increases; the increase in potential evapotran- spiration （PET）, due to the joint effects of increased temperature and surface net radiation and decreased relative humidity, will overwhelm the whole region throughout the entire 21st century. In comparative terms, the enhancement of PET will outweigh that of precipitation, particularly under Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP） 8.5, resulting in intensified drought. Generally, the drying tendency will be in the southeast portion, whereas the mountainous region in the northwest will become increasingly wetter owing to abundant precipitation increases. Droughts classified as moderate/severe according to historical standards will become the norm in the 2080s under RCP4.5/RCP8.5. Future drought changes will manifest different characteristics depending on the time scale： the magnitude of change at a time scale of 48 months is nearly twice as great as that at 3 months. Furthermore, we will see that not only will incidences of severe and extreme drought increase dramatically in the future, but extremely wet events will also become more probable.
文摘In this study, strong ground motion record （SGMR） selection based on Eta （~/） as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced flame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon （ε） and the target Eta （η） values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR＇s. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter r/is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate c values.
基金Funding for this project was provided in part by the Mclntire-Stennis funds
文摘Background： Different types of growth and yield models provide essential information for making informed decisions on how to manage forests. Whole-stand models often provide well-behaved outputs at the stand level, but lack information on stand structures. Detailed information from individual-tree models and size-class models typically suffers from accumulation of errors. The disaggregation method, in assuming that predictions from a whole-stand model are reliable, partitions these outputs to individual trees. On the other hand, the combination method seeks to improve stand-level predictions from both whole-stand and individual-tree models by combining them. Methods： Data from 100 plots randomly selected from the Southwicte Seed Source Study of Ioblolly pine （Pinus taedo L） were used to evaluate the unadjusted individual-tree model against the disaggregation and combination methods. Results： Compared to the whole-stand model, the combination method did not show improvements in predicting stand attributes in this study. The combination method also did not perform as well as the disaggregation method in tree-level predictions. The disaggregation method provided the best predictions of tree- and stand-level survival and growth. Conclusions： The disaggregation approach provides a link between individual-tree models and whole-stand models, and should be considered as a better alternative to the unadjusted tree model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos: 50621302, 50921062)
文摘A mixed system that includes poly（ethylene oxide） （PEO） and silica （SiO2） nanoparticles is prepared using two mixing methods. The interaction between PEO and the SiO2 nanoparticles in the dilute basic solution is investigated using the dynamic tight scattering （DLS） and isothermal titration calorimetry （ITC） techniques. The DLS results show qualitatively that SiO2 nanoparticles interact with both random coils and aggregates of PEO through hydrogen bonding, and PEO-SiO2 complexes are formed. The degree of disaggregation of aggregates of PEO is readily adjusted by changing the concentration of SiO2 nanoparticle suspensions. Moreover, the ITC results also certify quantitatively the interaction between PEO and SiO2 nanoparticle, and give the evidence of formation of PEO-SiO2 complex.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130530,91325301,41431177,41571212,41401237)the Project of "One-Three-Five" Strategic Planning & Frontier Sciences of the Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences (ISSASIP1622)+1 种基金the Government Interest Related Program between Canadian Space Agency and Agriculture and Agri-Food,Canada (13MOA01002)the Natural Science Research Program of Jiangsu Province (14KJA170001)
文摘Conventional soil maps generally contain one or more soil types within a single soil polygon.But their geographic locations within the polygon are not specified.This restricts current applications of the maps in site-specific agricultural management and environmental modelling.We examined the utility of legacy pedon data for disaggregating soil polygons and the effectiveness of similarity-based prediction for making use of the under-or over-sampled legacy pedon data for the disaggregation.The method consisted of three steps.First,environmental similarities between the pedon sites and each location were computed based on soil formative environmental factors.Second,according to soil types of the pedon sites,the similarities were aggregated to derive similarity distribution for each soil type.Third,a hardening process was performed on the maps to allocate candidate soil types within the polygons.The study was conducted at the soil subgroup level in a semi-arid area situated in Manitoba,Canada.Based on 186 independent pedon sites,the evaluation of the disaggregated map of soil subgroups showed an overall accuracy of 67% and a Kappa statistic of 0.62.The map represented a better spatial pattern of soil subgroups in both detail and accuracy compared to a dominant soil subgroup map,which was commonly used in practice.Incorrect predictions mainly occurred in the agricultural plain area and the soil subgroups that are very similar in taxonomy,indicating that new environmental covariates need to be developed.We concluded that the combination of legacy pedon data with similarity-based prediction is an effective solution for soil polygon disaggregation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (21878262)。
文摘Occurrence of neurofibrillary tangles of the tau protein is a hallmark of tau-related neurodegenerative diseases, i.e. Alzheimer's disease(AD) and frontotemporal dementia. The pathological mechanism underlying AD remains poorly understood, and effective treatments are still unavailable to mitigate the disease.Inhibiting of tau aggregation and disrupting the existing fibrils are key targets in drug discovery towards preventing or curing AD. In this study, grape seed proanthocyanidins(GSPs) was found to effectively inhibit the repeat domain of tau(tau-RD) aggregation and disaggregate tau-RD fibrils in a concentrationdependent manner by inhibiting β-sheet formation of tau-RD. In cells, GSPs relieved cytotoxicity induced by tau-RD aggregates. Molecular dynamics simulations indicated that strong hydrogen bonding,hydrophobic interaction and π-π stacking between GSPs and tau-RD protein were major reasons why GSPs had high inhibitory activity on tau-RD fibrillogenesis. These results provide preliminary data to develop GSPs into medicines, foodstuffs or nutritional supplements for AD patients, suggesting that GSPs could be a candidate molecule in the drug design for AD therapeutics.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China(No.5400-202112507A-0-5-ZN)the National Nature Science Foundation for Young Scholars of China(No.52107120).
文摘As the intermittency and uncertainty of photovoltaic(PV)power generation poses considerable challenges to the power system operation,accurate PV generation estimates are critical for the distribution operation,maintenance,and demand response program implementation because of the increasing usage of distributed PVs.Currently,most residential PVs are installed behind the meter,with only the net load available to the utilities.Therefore,a method for disaggregating the residential PV generation from the net load data is needed to enhance the grid-edge observability.In this study,an unsupervised PV capacity estimation method based on net metering data is proposed,for estimating the PV capacity in the customer’s premise based on the distribution characteristics of nocturnal and diurnal net load extremes.Then,the PV generation disaggregation method is presented.Based on the analysis of the correlation between the nocturnal and diurnal actual loads and the correlation between the PV capacity and their actual PV generation,the PV generation of customers is estimated by applying linear fitting of multiple typical solar exemplars and then disaggregating them into hourly-resolution power profiles.Finally,the anomalies of disaggregated PV power are calibrated and corrected using the estimated capacity.Experiment results on a real-world hourly dataset involving 260 customers show that the proposed PV capacity estimation method achieves good accuracy because of the advantages of robustness and low complexity.Compared with the state-of-the-art PV disaggregation algorithm,the proposed method exhibits a reduction of over 15%for the mean absolute percentage error and over 20%for the root mean square error.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Pan-Third Pole Environment Study for a Green Silk Road(Pan-TPE)of China(XDA2004030202)Shanghai Cooperation and the Organization Science and Technology Partnership of China(2021E01019)。
文摘Hydrothermal condition is mismatched in arid and semi-arid regions,particularly in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan,and Turkmenistan),resulting many environmental limitations.In this study,we projected hydrothermal condition in Central Asia based on bias-corrected multi-model ensembles(MMEs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway(SSP-RCP)scenarios(SSP126(SSP1-RCP2.6),SSP245(SSP2-RCP4.5),SSP460(SSP4-RCP6.0),and SSP585(SSP5-RCP8.5))during 2015-2100.The bias correction and spatial disaggregation,water-thermal product index,and sensitivity analysis were used in this study.The results showed that the hydrothermal condition is mismatched in the central and southern deserts,whereas the region of Pamir Mountains and Tianshan Mountains as well as the northern plains of Kazakhstan showed a matched hydrothermal condition.Compared with the historical period,the matched degree of hydrothermal condition improves during 2046-2075,but degenerates during 2015-2044 and 2076-2100.The change of hydrothermal condition is sensitive to precipitation in the northern regions and the maximum temperatures in the southern regions.The result suggests that the optimal scenario in Central Asia is SSP126 scenario,while SSP585 scenario brings further hydrothermal contradictions.This study provides scientific information for the development and sustainable utilization of hydrothermal resources in arid and semi-arid regions under climate change.
基金Authors acknowledge the financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada(NSERC)(grant number RGPIN-2018-06839)the University Research Chairs Program of the University of Ottawa,Canada.
文摘Islet amyloid polypeptide(IAPP),or amylin,has been identifi ed as a key factor in the development of type 2 diabetes(T2D).IAPP aggregates,which form amyloid fi brils,contribute to cytotoxicity of the pancreatic β-cells,resulting in loss of function and subsequent reduction in insulin production.As a result,surviving β-cells overcompensate for this reduction of insulin production,further contributing to the loss of function because of increased stress,thus leading to insulin resistance.Endogenously,IAPP monomers function in a variety of roles;however,aggregation renders them non-functional.The use of naturally occurring compounds,including peptides and phytochemicals,has been explored as a way to mitigate or inhibit IAPP fi bril formation.This review discusses the structure,endogenous roles and mechanism of IAPP fi bril formation,recent advances on inhibitors of IAPP fi bril formation,and new insights on the future development and application of foodderived inhibitors towards T2D management.
基金provided by National Science Foundation Center for Advanced Forestry Systems(CAFSAward#1915078)RII Track-2FEC(Award#1920908)。
文摘Tree mortality plays a fundamental role in the dynamics of forest ecosystems,yet it is one of the most difficult phenomena to accurately predict.Various modeling strategies have been developed to improve individual tree mortality predictions.One less explored strategy is the use of a multistage modeling approach.Potential improvements from this approach have remained largely unknown.In this study,we developed a novel multistage approach and compared its performance in individual tree mortality predictions with a more conventional approach using an identical individual tree mortality model formulation.Extensive permanent plot data(n=9442)covering the Acadian Region of North America and over multiple decades(1965–2014)were used in this study.Our results indicated that the model behavior with the multistage approach better depicted the observed mortality and showed a notable improvement over the conventional approach.The difference between the observed and predicted numbers of dead trees using the multistage approach was much smaller when compared with the conventional approach.In addition,tree survival probabilities predicted by the multistage approach generally were not significantly different from the observations,whereas the conventional approach consistently underestimated mortality across species and overestimated tree survival probabilities over the large range of DBH in the data.The new multistage approach also predictions of zero mortality in individual plots,a result not possible in conventional models.Finally,the new approach was more tolerant of modeling errors because it based estimates on ranked tree mortality rather than error-prone predicted values.Overall,this new multistage approach deserves to be considered and tested in future studies.
基金sponsored by BG, BP, Chevron, Conoco Phillips, DONG Energy, E. ON, ENI, Petrobras, Petronas, Statoil and Tullow Oil at Durham University is thanked for funding this research
文摘The Triassic fluvial sandstones of the Skagerrak Formation were deposited in a series of salt-walled mini-basins and act as important hydrocarbon reservoirs for several high-pressure, high-temperature（HPHT） fields in the Central Graben, North Sea. The HPHT reservoirs exhibit excellent reservoir quality considering their depth of burial and hence have been of high interest for hydrocarbon exploration. This research uses a multidisciplinary approach to assess the Skagerrak Formation fluvial reservoir quality from the Seagull field incorporating core analysis, petrography, electron microscopy, XRD analysis, fluid inclusion appraisal and burial history modelling. Halokinesis and salt withdrawal at the margin of the saltwalled mini-basin induced early disaggregation bands and fractures at shallow burial and led to increased influx of meteoric water and clay mineral infiltration from overlying sedimentation. The density of disaggregation bands correlates with the occurrence and magnitude of pore-filling authigenic clay minerals, concentrated along the margin of the saltwalled mini-basin. The fluvial channel sandstones of the Skagerrak Formation are subject to strong intra-basinal spatial reservoir quality variations despite diagenesis and low vertical effective stress having played a favourable role in arresting porosity loss.
文摘A new probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Bridgetown, Barbados, West Indies. Hazard computations have been performed using the standard Cornell-McGuire approach based on the definition of appropriate seismogenic sources and expected maximum magnitudes, the authors take into consideration the possibility of large subduction interface earthquakes of magnitude 8.0-9.0 beneath the Barbados accretionary prism via application of a characteristic model and slip rates. The analysis has been conducted using a standard logic-tree approach. Uniform hazard spectra have been calculated for the 5% of critical damping and the horizontal component of ground motion for rock site conditions setting 5 return periods （95, 475, 975, 2,475 and 4,975 years） and spectral accelerations for 34 structural periods ranging from 0 to 3 s. The disaggregation results suggest that the magnitude-distance pair that dominates the hazard yields M 7.4 and 8.6 and a distance of 42.5 km in the Interface Subduction Zone beneath Barbados for the 475 and 975 years RP （return period）, respectively. An event with an M 8.0 at a distance of 107.5 km in the Intraplate Subduction Zone is the second scenario that dominates the hazard for both 475 and 975 years RP.
