Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution g...Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers.展开更多
The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of ...The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.展开更多
Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Pat...Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Patients diagnosed with essential hypertension and admitted to Shanghai Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shang-hai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,and Shanghai Hospital of Integrated Tradition-al Chinese and Western Medicine from July 6th 2020 to June 16th 2021,and from August 11th 2023 to January 22nd 2024,were enrolled in this retrospective research.The baselines and clinical biochemical indicators of patients were collected.The SMART-I TCM pulse instru-ment was applied to gather pulse diagram parameters.Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to analyze the risk factors for HTH.RStudio was employed to construct the nomo-gram model,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and calibration curve(bootstrap self-sampling 200 times),and clinical decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model’s dis-crimination and clinical effectiveness.Results A total of 168 hospitalized patients with essential hypertension were selected and di-vided into non-HTH group(n=29)and HTH group(n=139).Compared with non-HTH group,HTH group had a lower body mass index(BMI),and higher proportions of male pa-tients and drinkers(P<0.05).The ventricular wall thickening(VWT)could not be deter-mined.The proportions of left common carotid intima-media wall thickness(LCCIMWT)and serum creatinine(SCR)were higher in HTH group(P<0.05).The pulse diagram parameter As was significantly higher,and H4/H1 and T1/T were lower in HTH group(P<0.05).Gender,al-cohol consumption,serum creatinine,and the pulse diagram parameter H4/H1 were identi-fied as independent risk factors for HTH(P<0.05).The nomogram’s area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.795[95%confidence interval(CI):(0.7066,0.8828)],with a specificity of 0.724 and sensitivity of 0.799.After 200 times repeated bootstrap self-samplings,the calibra-tion curve showed that the simulated curve fits well with the actual curve(x^(2)=9.5002,P=0.3019).The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram’s applicability was optimal when the threshold for predicting HTH was between 0.38 and 1.00.Conclusion The nomogram model could be valuable for predicting the onset risk of HTH and pulse diagram parameters can facilitate early screening and prevention of HTH.展开更多
The complex geometrical features of mechanical components significantly influence contact interactions and system dynamics.However,directly modeling contact forces on surfaces with intricate geometries presents consid...The complex geometrical features of mechanical components significantly influence contact interactions and system dynamics.However,directly modeling contact forces on surfaces with intricate geometries presents considerable challenges.This study focuses on the helically twisted wire rope-sheave contact and proposes a contact force model that incorporates complex geometric features through a parameter identification approach.The model's impact on contact forces and system dynamics is thoroughly investigated.Leveraging a point contact model and an elliptic integral approximation,a loss function is formulated using the finite element(FE)contact model results as the reference data.Geometric parameters are subsequently determined by optimizing this loss function via a genetic algorithm(GA).The findings reveal that the contact stiffness increases with the wire rope pitch length,the radius of principal curvature,and the elliptic eccentricity of the contact zone.The proposed contact force model is integrated into a rigid-flexible coupled dynamics model,developed by the absolute node coordinate formulation,to examine the effects of contact geometry on system dynamics.The results demonstrate that the variations in wire rope geometry alter the contact stiffness,which in turn affects dynamic rope tension through frictional energy dissipation.The enhanced model's predictions exhibit superior alignment with the experimental data,thereby validating the methodology.This approach provides new insights for deducing the contact geometry from kinetic parameters and monitoring the performance degradation of mechanical components.展开更多
Accurate and reliable photovoltaic(PV)modeling is crucial for the performance evaluation,control,and optimization of PV systems.However,existing methods for PV parameter identification often suffer from limitations in...Accurate and reliable photovoltaic(PV)modeling is crucial for the performance evaluation,control,and optimization of PV systems.However,existing methods for PV parameter identification often suffer from limitations in accuracy and efficiency.To address these challenges,we propose an adaptive multi-learning cooperation search algorithm(AMLCSA)for efficient identification of unknown parameters in PV models.AMLCSA is a novel algorithm inspired by teamwork behaviors in modern enterprises.It enhances the original cooperation search algorithm in two key aspects:(i)an adaptive multi-learning strategy that dynamically adjusts search ranges using adaptive weights,allowing better individuals to focus on local exploitation while guiding poorer individuals toward global exploration;and(ii)a chaotic grouping reflection strategy that introduces chaotic sequences to enhance population diversity and improve search performance.The effectiveness of AMLCSA is demonstrated on single-diode,double-diode,and three PV-module models.Simulation results show that AMLCSA offers significant advantages in convergence,accuracy,and stability compared to existing state-of-the-art algorithms.展开更多
Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characterist...Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characteristic,rendering traditional distribution models and parameter estimation methods less effective.To address this,this paper proposes a dual compound-Gaussian model with inverse Gaussian texture(CG-IG)distribution model and combines it with an improved Adam algorithm to introduce a method for parameter correction.This method effectively fits sea clutter with heavy-tailed characteristics.Experiments with real measured sea clutter data show that the dual CGIG distribution model,after parameter correction,accurately describes the heavy-tailed phenomenon in sea clutter amplitude distribution,and the overall mean square error of the distribution is reduced.展开更多
Recent discovery of high transition temperature superconductivity in La_(3)Ni_(2)O_(7) has sparked renewed theoretical and experimental interests in unconventional superconductivity. It is crucial to understand the in...Recent discovery of high transition temperature superconductivity in La_(3)Ni_(2)O_(7) has sparked renewed theoretical and experimental interests in unconventional superconductivity. It is crucial to understand the influence of various factors on its superconductivity. By refining the determinant quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we characterize the parameter dependence of the superconducting transition temperature within a bilayer Hubbard model, which is sign-problem-free at arbitrary filling. A striking feature of this model is its similarity to the bilayer nickelate-based superconductor La_(3)Ni_(2)O_(7), where superconductivity emerges from the bilayer NiO_(2) planes.We find that interlayer spin-exchange J is critical to interlayer pairing, and that on-site interaction U contributes negatively to superconductivity at low doping levels but positively at high doping levels. Our findings can provide a reference for the next step in theoretical research on nickelate-based superconductors.展开更多
This research investigates the influence of indoor and outdoor factors on photovoltaic(PV)power generation at Utrecht University to accurately predict PV system performance by identifying critical impact factors and i...This research investigates the influence of indoor and outdoor factors on photovoltaic(PV)power generation at Utrecht University to accurately predict PV system performance by identifying critical impact factors and improving renewable energy efficiency.To predict plant efficiency,nineteen variables are analyzed,consisting of nine indoor photovoltaic panel characteristics(Open Circuit Voltage(Voc),Short Circuit Current(Isc),Maximum Power(Pmpp),Maximum Voltage(Umpp),Maximum Current(Impp),Filling Factor(FF),Parallel Resistance(Rp),Series Resistance(Rs),Module Temperature)and ten environmental factors(Air Temperature,Air Humidity,Dew Point,Air Pressure,Irradiation,Irradiation Propagation,Wind Speed,Wind Speed Propagation,Wind Direction,Wind Direction Propagation).This study provides a new perspective not previously addressed in the literature.In this study,different machine learning methods such as Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline(MARS),Multiple Linear Regression(MLR),and Random Forest(RF)models are used to predict power values using data from installed PVpanels.Panel values obtained under real field conditions were used to train the models,and the results were compared.The Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)model was achieved with the highest classification accuracy of 0.990%.The machine learning models used for solar energy forecasting show high performance and produce results close to actual values.Models like Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)and Random Forest(RF)can be used in diverse locations based on load demand.展开更多
The material of nickel aluminum bronze (NAB) presents superior properties such as high strength, excellent wear resistance and stress corrosion resistance and is extensively used for marine propellers. In order to est...The material of nickel aluminum bronze (NAB) presents superior properties such as high strength, excellent wear resistance and stress corrosion resistance and is extensively used for marine propellers. In order to establish the constitutive relation of NAB under high strain rate condition, a new methodology was proposed to accurately identify the constitutive parameters of Johnson?Cook model in machining, combining SHPB tests, predictive cutting force model and orthogonal cutting experiment. Firstly, SHPB tests were carried out to obtain the true stress?strain curves at various temperatures and strain rates. Then, an objective function of the predictive and experimental flow stresses was set up, which put the identified parameters of SHPB tests as the initial value, and utilized the PSO algorithm to identify the constitutive parameters of NAB in machining. Finally, the identified parameters were verified to be sufficiently accurate by comparing the values of cutting forces calculated from the predictive model and FEM simulation.展开更多
Lithium ion batteries are complicated distributed parameter systems that can be described preferably by partial differential equations and a field theory. To reduce the solution difficulty and the calculation amount, ...Lithium ion batteries are complicated distributed parameter systems that can be described preferably by partial differential equations and a field theory. To reduce the solution difficulty and the calculation amount, if a distributed parameter system is described by ordinary differential equations （ODE） during the analysis and the design of distributed parameter system, the reliability of the system description will be reduced, and the systemic errors will be introduced. Studies on working condition real-time monitoring can improve the security because the rechargeable LIBs are widely used in many electronic systems and electromechanical equipment. Single particle model （SPM） is the simplification of LIB under some approximations, and can estimate the working parameters of a LIB at the faster simulation speed. A LIB modelling algorithm based on PDEs and SPM is proposed to monitor the working condition of LIBs in real time. Although the lithium ion concentration is an unmeasurable distributed parameter in the anode of LIB, the working condition monitoring model can track the real time lithium ion concentration in the anode of LIB, and calculate the residual which is the difference between the ideal data and the measured data. A fault alarm can be triggered when the residual is beyond the preset threshold. A simulation example verifies that the effectiveness and the accuracy of the working condition real-time monitoring model of LIB based on PDEs and SPM.展开更多
The retrieval of the biomass parameters from active/passive microwave remote sensing data （10.2 GHz） is performed based on an iterative inversion of BP neural network model with fuzzy optimization. The BP neural net...The retrieval of the biomass parameters from active/passive microwave remote sensing data （10.2 GHz） is performed based on an iterative inversion of BP neural network model with fuzzy optimization. The BP neural network is trained by a set of the measurements of active and passive remote sensing and the ground truth data versus Day of Year during growth. Once the network training is complete, the model can be used to retrieve the temporal variations of the biomass parameters from another set of observation data. The model was used in weights and microware observation data of wheat growth in 1989 to retrieve biomass parameters change of wheat growth this year. The retrieved biomass parameters correspond well with the real data of the growth, which shows that the BP model is scientific and sound.展开更多
Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of severa...Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.展开更多
A novel parameter extraction method with rational functions is presented for the 2-πequivalent circuit model of RF CMOS spiral inductors. The final S-parameters simulated by the circuit model closely match experiment...A novel parameter extraction method with rational functions is presented for the 2-πequivalent circuit model of RF CMOS spiral inductors. The final S-parameters simulated by the circuit model closely match experimental data. The extraction strategy is straightforward and can be easily implemented as a CAD tool to model spiral inductors. The resulting circuit models will be very useful for RF circuit designers.展开更多
Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ＂spring predictability barrier＂ （SPB） for El Nio events. First, sensit...Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ＂spring predictability barrier＂ （SPB） for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode （CNOP-P） of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode （i.e. CNOP error） of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.展开更多
The small-scale drilling technique can be a fast and reliable method to estimate rock strength parameters. It needs to link the operational drilling parameters and strength properties of rock. The parameters such as b...The small-scale drilling technique can be a fast and reliable method to estimate rock strength parameters. It needs to link the operational drilling parameters and strength properties of rock. The parameters such as bit geometry, bit movement, contact frictions and crushed zone affect the estimated parameters.An analytical model considering operational drilling data and effective parameters can be used for these purposes. In this research, an analytical model was developed based on limit equilibrium of forces in a Tshaped drag bit considering the effective parameters such as bit geometry, crushed zone and contact frictions in drilling process. Based on the model, a method was used to estimate rock strength parameters such as cohesion, internal friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength of different rock types from operational drilling data. Some drilling tests were conducted by a portable and powerful drilling machine which was developed for this work. The obtained results for strength properties of different rock types from the drilling experiments based on the proposed model are in good agreement with the results of standard tests. Experimental results show that the contact friction between the cutting face and rock is close to that between bit end wearing face and rock due to the same bit material. In this case,the strength parameters, especially internal friction angle and cohesion, are estimated only by using a blunt bit drilling data and the bit bluntness does not affect the estimated results.展开更多
In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calcula...In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.展开更多
Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes ...Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes which are subjected to stress-induced failure.The probability of failure(POF)depends on many factors,of which the geometry of an open stope is especially important.In this study,a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,using numerical modelling.Different ranges for each input parameter are defined according to previous surveys on open stope geometry in a number of Canadian underground mines.A Monte-Carlo simulation technique is combined with the finite difference code FLAC3D,to generate model realizations containing stopes with different geometrical features.The probability of failure(POF)for different categories of stope geometry,is calculated by considering two modes of failure;relaxation-related gravity driven(tensile)failure and rock mass brittle failure.The individual and interactive effects of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,are analyzed using a general multi-level factorial design.Finally,mathematical optimization techniques are employed to estimate the most stable stope conditions,by determining the optimal ranges for each stope’s geometrical parameter.展开更多
Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder （QAR） data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane....Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder （QAR） data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother （EKF-MBF） method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function （RBF） neural network method for aerodynamic mod- eling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil air- plane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward.展开更多
The on-orbit parameter identification of a space structure can be used for the modification of a system dynamics model and controller coefficients. This study focuses on the estimation of a system state-space model fo...The on-orbit parameter identification of a space structure can be used for the modification of a system dynamics model and controller coefficients. This study focuses on the estimation of a system state-space model for a two-link space manipulator in the procedure of capturing an unknown object, and a recursive tracking approach based on the recursive predictor-based subspace identification(RPBSID) algorithm is proposed to identify the manipulator payload mass parameter. Structural rigid motion and elastic vibration are separated, and the dynamics model of the space manipulator is linearized at an arbitrary working point(i.e., a certain manipulator configuration).The state-space model is determined by using the RPBSID algorithm and matrix transformation. In addition, utilizing the identified system state-space model, the manipulator payload mass parameter is estimated by extracting the corresponding block matrix. In numerical simulations, the presented parameter identification method is implemented and compared with the classical algebraic algorithm and the recursive least squares method for different payload masses and manipulator configurations. Numerical results illustrate that the system state-space model and payload mass parameter of the two-link flexible space manipulator are effectively identified by the recursive subspace tracking method.展开更多
To efficiently and fully utilize aircraft carrier resources,an optimization model is presented to deal with parameter matching between aircraft and carrier in the process of aircraft catapult launch.Based on carrier a...To efficiently and fully utilize aircraft carrier resources,an optimization model is presented to deal with parameter matching between aircraft and carrier in the process of aircraft catapult launch.Based on carrier aircraft longitudinal dynamic equations and theorem of kinetic energy in catapult launch course,the work characteristics of different forces are learned and a theory model of parameter matching is deduced.In view of the uncertainty of the model parameters of the theory model and the low matching accuracy of the approximate model,an optimization model of parameter matching is introduced in line with the structure of theory model and the approximate model and is generated by the proposed immune genetic algorithm.Compared with the original genetic algorithm and immune algorithm,the proposed algorithm has better calculation accuracy and convergence.The calculation results show that the optimization model occupies certain application value of engineering estimation from the comparison with the relevant literature data and has higher precision than the approximate models.The validity of the proposed approach is verified with numerical case study on a carrier based aircraft.展开更多
基金supported via funding from Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University project number(PSAU/2025/R/1446).
文摘Promoting the high penetration of renewable energies like photovoltaic(PV)systems has become an urgent issue for expanding modern power grids and has accomplished several challenges compared to existing distribution grids.This study measures the effectiveness of the Puma optimizer(PO)algorithm in parameter estimation of PSC(perovskite solar cells)dynamic models with hysteresis consideration considering the electric field effects on operation.The models used in this study will incorporate hysteresis effects to capture the time-dependent behavior of PSCs accurately.The PO optimizes the proposed modified triple diode model(TDM)with a variable voltage capacitor and resistances(VVCARs)considering the hysteresis behavior.The suggested PO algorithm contrasts with other wellknown optimizers from the literature to demonstrate its superiority.The results emphasize that the PO realizes a lower RMSE(Root mean square errors),which proves its capability and efficacy in parameter extraction for the models.The statistical results emphasize the efficiency and supremacy of the proposed PO compared to the other well-known competing optimizers.The convergence rates show good,fast,and stable convergence rates with lower RMSE via PO compared to the other five competitive optimizers.Moreover,the lowermean realized via the PO optimizer is illustrated by the box plot for all optimizers.
基金supported by the Opening Fund of Key Laboratory of Geological Survey and Evaluation of Ministry of Education(No.GLAB 2024ZR03)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42407248)+2 种基金the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program(Natural Science)(No.QKHJC-[2023]-YB066)the Key Laboratory of Smart Earth(No.KF2023YB04-02)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities。
文摘The constitutive model is essential for predicting the deformation and stability of rocksoil mass.The estimation of constitutive model parameters is a necessary and important task for the reliable characterization of mechanical behaviors.However,constitutive model parameters cannot be evaluated accurately with a limited amount of test data,resulting in uncertainty in the prediction of stress-strain curves.This paper proposes a Bayesian analysis framework to address this issue.It combines the Bayesian updating with the structural reliability and adaptive conditional sampling methods to assess the equation parameter of constitutive models.Based on the triaxial and ring shear tests on shear zone soils from the Huangtupo landslide,a statistical damage constitutive model and a critical state hypoplastic constitutive model were used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework.Moreover,the parameter uncertainty effects of the damage constitutive model on landslide stability were investigated.Results show that reasonable assessments of the constitutive model parameter can be well realized.The variability of stress-strain curves is strongly related to the model prediction performance.The estimation uncertainty of constitutive model parameters should not be ignored for the landslide stability calculation.Our study provides a reference for uncertainty analysis and parameter assessment of the constitutive model.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (81973749 and 8143594)State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine High-level Chinese Medicine Key Discipline Construction Project (zyyzdxk-2023069)。
文摘Objective To develop an onset risk prediction nomogram for patients with homocysteine-type(H-type)hypertension(HTH)based on pulse diagram parameters to assist early clinical prediction and diagnosis of HTH.Methods Patients diagnosed with essential hypertension and admitted to Shanghai Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Shang-hai Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine,and Shanghai Hospital of Integrated Tradition-al Chinese and Western Medicine from July 6th 2020 to June 16th 2021,and from August 11th 2023 to January 22nd 2024,were enrolled in this retrospective research.The baselines and clinical biochemical indicators of patients were collected.The SMART-I TCM pulse instru-ment was applied to gather pulse diagram parameters.Multivariate logistic regression was adopted to analyze the risk factors for HTH.RStudio was employed to construct the nomo-gram model,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,and calibration curve(bootstrap self-sampling 200 times),and clinical decision curve were drawn to evaluate the model’s dis-crimination and clinical effectiveness.Results A total of 168 hospitalized patients with essential hypertension were selected and di-vided into non-HTH group(n=29)and HTH group(n=139).Compared with non-HTH group,HTH group had a lower body mass index(BMI),and higher proportions of male pa-tients and drinkers(P<0.05).The ventricular wall thickening(VWT)could not be deter-mined.The proportions of left common carotid intima-media wall thickness(LCCIMWT)and serum creatinine(SCR)were higher in HTH group(P<0.05).The pulse diagram parameter As was significantly higher,and H4/H1 and T1/T were lower in HTH group(P<0.05).Gender,al-cohol consumption,serum creatinine,and the pulse diagram parameter H4/H1 were identi-fied as independent risk factors for HTH(P<0.05).The nomogram’s area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.795[95%confidence interval(CI):(0.7066,0.8828)],with a specificity of 0.724 and sensitivity of 0.799.After 200 times repeated bootstrap self-samplings,the calibra-tion curve showed that the simulated curve fits well with the actual curve(x^(2)=9.5002,P=0.3019).The clinical decision curve indicated that the nomogram’s applicability was optimal when the threshold for predicting HTH was between 0.38 and 1.00.Conclusion The nomogram model could be valuable for predicting the onset risk of HTH and pulse diagram parameters can facilitate early screening and prevention of HTH.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFC3010400)。
文摘The complex geometrical features of mechanical components significantly influence contact interactions and system dynamics.However,directly modeling contact forces on surfaces with intricate geometries presents considerable challenges.This study focuses on the helically twisted wire rope-sheave contact and proposes a contact force model that incorporates complex geometric features through a parameter identification approach.The model's impact on contact forces and system dynamics is thoroughly investigated.Leveraging a point contact model and an elliptic integral approximation,a loss function is formulated using the finite element(FE)contact model results as the reference data.Geometric parameters are subsequently determined by optimizing this loss function via a genetic algorithm(GA).The findings reveal that the contact stiffness increases with the wire rope pitch length,the radius of principal curvature,and the elliptic eccentricity of the contact zone.The proposed contact force model is integrated into a rigid-flexible coupled dynamics model,developed by the absolute node coordinate formulation,to examine the effects of contact geometry on system dynamics.The results demonstrate that the variations in wire rope geometry alter the contact stiffness,which in turn affects dynamic rope tension through frictional energy dissipation.The enhanced model's predictions exhibit superior alignment with the experimental data,thereby validating the methodology.This approach provides new insights for deducing the contact geometry from kinetic parameters and monitoring the performance degradation of mechanical components.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.62303197,62273214)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2024MFO18).
文摘Accurate and reliable photovoltaic(PV)modeling is crucial for the performance evaluation,control,and optimization of PV systems.However,existing methods for PV parameter identification often suffer from limitations in accuracy and efficiency.To address these challenges,we propose an adaptive multi-learning cooperation search algorithm(AMLCSA)for efficient identification of unknown parameters in PV models.AMLCSA is a novel algorithm inspired by teamwork behaviors in modern enterprises.It enhances the original cooperation search algorithm in two key aspects:(i)an adaptive multi-learning strategy that dynamically adjusts search ranges using adaptive weights,allowing better individuals to focus on local exploitation while guiding poorer individuals toward global exploration;and(ii)a chaotic grouping reflection strategy that introduces chaotic sequences to enhance population diversity and improve search performance.The effectiveness of AMLCSA is demonstrated on single-diode,double-diode,and three PV-module models.Simulation results show that AMLCSA offers significant advantages in convergence,accuracy,and stability compared to existing state-of-the-art algorithms.
文摘Accurate modeling and parameter estimation of sea clutter are fundamental for effective sea surface target detection.With the improvement of radar resolution,sea clutter exhibits a pronounced heavy-tailed characteristic,rendering traditional distribution models and parameter estimation methods less effective.To address this,this paper proposes a dual compound-Gaussian model with inverse Gaussian texture(CG-IG)distribution model and combines it with an improved Adam algorithm to introduce a method for parameter correction.This method effectively fits sea clutter with heavy-tailed characteristics.Experiments with real measured sea clutter data show that the dual CGIG distribution model,after parameter correction,accurately describes the heavy-tailed phenomenon in sea clutter amplitude distribution,and the overall mean square error of the distribution is reduced.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.12234016,12174317 for C.Wu,and 12474218 for R.Ma,Z.Fan,and T.Ma)Beijing Natural Science Foundation (Grant No.1242022 for R.Ma,Z.Fan,and T.Ma)the New Cornerstone Science Foundation。
文摘Recent discovery of high transition temperature superconductivity in La_(3)Ni_(2)O_(7) has sparked renewed theoretical and experimental interests in unconventional superconductivity. It is crucial to understand the influence of various factors on its superconductivity. By refining the determinant quantum Monte Carlo algorithm, we characterize the parameter dependence of the superconducting transition temperature within a bilayer Hubbard model, which is sign-problem-free at arbitrary filling. A striking feature of this model is its similarity to the bilayer nickelate-based superconductor La_(3)Ni_(2)O_(7), where superconductivity emerges from the bilayer NiO_(2) planes.We find that interlayer spin-exchange J is critical to interlayer pairing, and that on-site interaction U contributes negatively to superconductivity at low doping levels but positively at high doping levels. Our findings can provide a reference for the next step in theoretical research on nickelate-based superconductors.
文摘This research investigates the influence of indoor and outdoor factors on photovoltaic(PV)power generation at Utrecht University to accurately predict PV system performance by identifying critical impact factors and improving renewable energy efficiency.To predict plant efficiency,nineteen variables are analyzed,consisting of nine indoor photovoltaic panel characteristics(Open Circuit Voltage(Voc),Short Circuit Current(Isc),Maximum Power(Pmpp),Maximum Voltage(Umpp),Maximum Current(Impp),Filling Factor(FF),Parallel Resistance(Rp),Series Resistance(Rs),Module Temperature)and ten environmental factors(Air Temperature,Air Humidity,Dew Point,Air Pressure,Irradiation,Irradiation Propagation,Wind Speed,Wind Speed Propagation,Wind Direction,Wind Direction Propagation).This study provides a new perspective not previously addressed in the literature.In this study,different machine learning methods such as Multilayer Perceptron(MLP),Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline(MARS),Multiple Linear Regression(MLR),and Random Forest(RF)models are used to predict power values using data from installed PVpanels.Panel values obtained under real field conditions were used to train the models,and the results were compared.The Multilayer Perceptron(MLP)model was achieved with the highest classification accuracy of 0.990%.The machine learning models used for solar energy forecasting show high performance and produce results close to actual values.Models like Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP)and Random Forest(RF)can be used in diverse locations based on load demand.
基金Project(2014CB046704)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProject(2014BAB13B01)supported by the National Science and Technology Pillar Program of China
文摘The material of nickel aluminum bronze (NAB) presents superior properties such as high strength, excellent wear resistance and stress corrosion resistance and is extensively used for marine propellers. In order to establish the constitutive relation of NAB under high strain rate condition, a new methodology was proposed to accurately identify the constitutive parameters of Johnson?Cook model in machining, combining SHPB tests, predictive cutting force model and orthogonal cutting experiment. Firstly, SHPB tests were carried out to obtain the true stress?strain curves at various temperatures and strain rates. Then, an objective function of the predictive and experimental flow stresses was set up, which put the identified parameters of SHPB tests as the initial value, and utilized the PSO algorithm to identify the constitutive parameters of NAB in machining. Finally, the identified parameters were verified to be sufficiently accurate by comparing the values of cutting forces calculated from the predictive model and FEM simulation.
文摘Lithium ion batteries are complicated distributed parameter systems that can be described preferably by partial differential equations and a field theory. To reduce the solution difficulty and the calculation amount, if a distributed parameter system is described by ordinary differential equations （ODE） during the analysis and the design of distributed parameter system, the reliability of the system description will be reduced, and the systemic errors will be introduced. Studies on working condition real-time monitoring can improve the security because the rechargeable LIBs are widely used in many electronic systems and electromechanical equipment. Single particle model （SPM） is the simplification of LIB under some approximations, and can estimate the working parameters of a LIB at the faster simulation speed. A LIB modelling algorithm based on PDEs and SPM is proposed to monitor the working condition of LIBs in real time. Although the lithium ion concentration is an unmeasurable distributed parameter in the anode of LIB, the working condition monitoring model can track the real time lithium ion concentration in the anode of LIB, and calculate the residual which is the difference between the ideal data and the measured data. A fault alarm can be triggered when the residual is beyond the preset threshold. A simulation example verifies that the effectiveness and the accuracy of the working condition real-time monitoring model of LIB based on PDEs and SPM.
文摘The retrieval of the biomass parameters from active/passive microwave remote sensing data （10.2 GHz） is performed based on an iterative inversion of BP neural network model with fuzzy optimization. The BP neural network is trained by a set of the measurements of active and passive remote sensing and the ground truth data versus Day of Year during growth. Once the network training is complete, the model can be used to retrieve the temporal variations of the biomass parameters from another set of observation data. The model was used in weights and microware observation data of wheat growth in 1989 to retrieve biomass parameters change of wheat growth this year. The retrieved biomass parameters correspond well with the real data of the growth, which shows that the BP model is scientific and sound.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (4007401340134010)Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (042002) and the project during the Tenth Five-year Plan.
文摘Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
文摘A novel parameter extraction method with rational functions is presented for the 2-πequivalent circuit model of RF CMOS spiral inductors. The final S-parameters simulated by the circuit model closely match experimental data. The extraction strategy is straightforward and can be easily implemented as a CAD tool to model spiral inductors. The resulting circuit models will be very useful for RF circuit designers.
基金sponsored by the Knowl-edge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-QN203)the National Basic Re-search Program of China (No. 2007CB411800)the GYHY200906009 of the China Meteorological Administra-tion
文摘Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant ＂spring predictability barrier＂ （SPB） for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode （CNOP-P） of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode （i.e. CNOP error） of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.
文摘The small-scale drilling technique can be a fast and reliable method to estimate rock strength parameters. It needs to link the operational drilling parameters and strength properties of rock. The parameters such as bit geometry, bit movement, contact frictions and crushed zone affect the estimated parameters.An analytical model considering operational drilling data and effective parameters can be used for these purposes. In this research, an analytical model was developed based on limit equilibrium of forces in a Tshaped drag bit considering the effective parameters such as bit geometry, crushed zone and contact frictions in drilling process. Based on the model, a method was used to estimate rock strength parameters such as cohesion, internal friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength of different rock types from operational drilling data. Some drilling tests were conducted by a portable and powerful drilling machine which was developed for this work. The obtained results for strength properties of different rock types from the drilling experiments based on the proposed model are in good agreement with the results of standard tests. Experimental results show that the contact friction between the cutting face and rock is close to that between bit end wearing face and rock due to the same bit material. In this case,the strength parameters, especially internal friction angle and cohesion, are estimated only by using a blunt bit drilling data and the bit bluntness does not affect the estimated results.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Education Committee
文摘In this paper, based on the theory of parameter estimation, we give a selection method and, in a sense of a good character of the parameter estimation, we think that it is very reasonable. Moreover, we offer a calculation method of selection statistic and an applied example.
基金funded by a grant from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)the authors would like to acknowledge the Niobec mine (Saint-Honoré, QuébecQuébec)
文摘Stress-induced failure is among the most common causes of instability in Canadian deep underground mines.Open stoping is the most widely practiced underground excavation method in these mines,and creates large stopes which are subjected to stress-induced failure.The probability of failure(POF)depends on many factors,of which the geometry of an open stope is especially important.In this study,a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,using numerical modelling.Different ranges for each input parameter are defined according to previous surveys on open stope geometry in a number of Canadian underground mines.A Monte-Carlo simulation technique is combined with the finite difference code FLAC3D,to generate model realizations containing stopes with different geometrical features.The probability of failure(POF)for different categories of stope geometry,is calculated by considering two modes of failure;relaxation-related gravity driven(tensile)failure and rock mass brittle failure.The individual and interactive effects of stope geometrical parameters on the POF,are analyzed using a general multi-level factorial design.Finally,mathematical optimization techniques are employed to estimate the most stable stope conditions,by determining the optimal ranges for each stope’s geometrical parameter.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(60832012)
文摘Aerodynamic modeling and parameter estimation from quick accesses recorder （QAR） data is an important technical way to analyze the effects of highland weather conditions upon aerodynamic characteristics of airplane. It is also an essential content of flight accident analysis. The related techniques are developed in the present paper, including the geometric method for angle of attack and sideslip angle estimation, the extended Kalman filter associated with modified Bryson-Frazier smoother （EKF-MBF） method for aerodynamic coefficient identification, the radial basis function （RBF） neural network method for aerodynamic mod- eling, and the Delta method for stability/control derivative estimation. As an application example, the QAR data of a civil air- plane approaching a high-altitude airport are processed and the aerodynamic coefficient and derivative estimates are obtained. The estimation results are reasonable, which shows that the developed techniques are feasible. The causes for the distribution of aerodynamic derivative estimates are analyzed. Accordingly, several measures to improve estimation accuracy are put forward.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11572069 and 51775541)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No. 2016M601354)
文摘The on-orbit parameter identification of a space structure can be used for the modification of a system dynamics model and controller coefficients. This study focuses on the estimation of a system state-space model for a two-link space manipulator in the procedure of capturing an unknown object, and a recursive tracking approach based on the recursive predictor-based subspace identification(RPBSID) algorithm is proposed to identify the manipulator payload mass parameter. Structural rigid motion and elastic vibration are separated, and the dynamics model of the space manipulator is linearized at an arbitrary working point(i.e., a certain manipulator configuration).The state-space model is determined by using the RPBSID algorithm and matrix transformation. In addition, utilizing the identified system state-space model, the manipulator payload mass parameter is estimated by extracting the corresponding block matrix. In numerical simulations, the presented parameter identification method is implemented and compared with the classical algebraic algorithm and the recursive least squares method for different payload masses and manipulator configurations. Numerical results illustrate that the system state-space model and payload mass parameter of the two-link flexible space manipulator are effectively identified by the recursive subspace tracking method.
基金supported by the Excellence Foundation of BUAA for Ph D.and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.91641123).
文摘To efficiently and fully utilize aircraft carrier resources,an optimization model is presented to deal with parameter matching between aircraft and carrier in the process of aircraft catapult launch.Based on carrier aircraft longitudinal dynamic equations and theorem of kinetic energy in catapult launch course,the work characteristics of different forces are learned and a theory model of parameter matching is deduced.In view of the uncertainty of the model parameters of the theory model and the low matching accuracy of the approximate model,an optimization model of parameter matching is introduced in line with the structure of theory model and the approximate model and is generated by the proposed immune genetic algorithm.Compared with the original genetic algorithm and immune algorithm,the proposed algorithm has better calculation accuracy and convergence.The calculation results show that the optimization model occupies certain application value of engineering estimation from the comparison with the relevant literature data and has higher precision than the approximate models.The validity of the proposed approach is verified with numerical case study on a carrier based aircraft.
