Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
The objective of the current study is to investigate an adaptive predictive observer-based autopilot for a skid-to-turn(STT)missile model with uncertainties and unknown dynamic equations.A predictive control for the S...The objective of the current study is to investigate an adaptive predictive observer-based autopilot for a skid-to-turn(STT)missile model with uncertainties and unknown dynamic equations.A predictive control for the STT missile is designed based on nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC)using Taylor series expansion,after which,via a neural network(NN),unknown functions are approximated.The present study also evaluates an adaptive optimal observer of a new strategy-based nonlinear system.Specifically,to estimate the missile states such as normal acceleration and its derivatives for the future,originally the Taylor series states expansion was gained to any specified order,based on their receding horizons.To address the problem of prediction error,an analytic solution was prepared that led to a closed form regarding the nonlinear optimal observer.Out of the gains resulting from the analytic solution,as developed for the problem of prediction error,the selection of the proposed observer gain was optimally conducted to meet the stability condition.Thus,combining the adaptive predictive autopilot and the adaptive optimal observer scheme was implemented to secure the performance,which needed only estimated normal acceleration and its derivatives.Meanwhile,no angular velocity measurement or wind angle estimation was required.Ultimately,the proposed technique was found effective,as confirmed by the qualitative simulation results.展开更多
A complementary method to determine the vibration source intensity,defined as the weighted vertical acceleration level at the tunnel wall,is needed urgently when comparable measurements or database predictions are una...A complementary method to determine the vibration source intensity,defined as the weighted vertical acceleration level at the tunnel wall,is needed urgently when comparable measurements or database predictions are unavailable in empirical predictions.In this study,we present an analytical model designed to quickly and accurately estimate the vibration source intensity produced by moving metro trains,considering both regular and floating slab tracks.The improved periodic pipe-in-pipe(PiP)model with regular or floating slabs affixed to the tunnel invert was developed.The train loads are represented in the frequency-wavenumber domain to apply in the model.Measured track irregularities were applied and the proposed model was validated against the measured results and verified by a tunnel-soil coupled model.The proposed approach effectively and accurately assessed the vibration source intensity generated by underground trains in a prediction time of just 58 s.Track irregularities significantly affect the vibration source intensity,making them a key factor in comparable measurements or database predictions.A floating slab track can reduce the vibration source intensity by about 14 dB.The proposed approach can serve as an additional method to complement comparable measurements or database predictions for determining the vibration source intensity in empirical predictions.展开更多
Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of ...Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.展开更多
This study reveals the critical role of multiscale interaction within the westerly wind bursts(WWBs)west of the MJO convection in modulating the prediction skill for the November MJO event during the DYNAMO(Dynamics o...This study reveals the critical role of multiscale interaction within the westerly wind bursts(WWBs)west of the MJO convection in modulating the prediction skill for the November MJO event during the DYNAMO(Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation)field campaign.The characteristics of the MJO convection envelope are obtained by the largescale precipitation tracking method,and a novel metric is introduced to quantify the prediction skill for the MJO convection in the ECMWF reforecast.The ECMWF forecast exhibits approximately 17 days in skillful prediction for the MJO convection—significantly lower than that derived from the global measure.The reforecast ensembles are further classified into high and low skill catalogs based on the mean prediction skill during the observed WWBs period.High-skill ensembles exhibit significantly enhanced low-level westerlies,amplified MJO convection,and reduced spatial separation between the low-level westerlies and MJO convection during the WWBs period,indicating stronger coupling between the large-scale circulation and the convection.Mechanistic analysis reveals that enhanced westerlies in high-skill ensembles can transfer more high-frequency energy to the MJO convection through the flux convergence of interaction energy for MJO convection development,resulting in better prediction skill.展开更多
Thermal power plants are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.The prediction of the emission supports the decision makers and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to enhance the acc...Thermal power plants are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.The prediction of the emission supports the decision makers and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of emission prediction models,supporting more effective real-time monitoring and enabling informed operational decisions that align with environmental compliance efforts.This paper presents a data-driven approach for the accurate prediction of gas emissions,specifically nitrogen oxides(NOx)and carbon monoxide(CO),in natural gas power plants using an optimized hybrid machine learning framework.The proposed model integrates a Feedforward Neural Network(FFNN)trained using Particle Swarm Optimization to capture the nonlinear emission dynamics under varying gas turbine operating conditions.To further enhance predictive performance,the K-Nearest Neighbor(K-NN)algorithm serves as a post-processing method to enhance IPSO-FFNN predictions through adjustment and refinement,improving overall prediction accuracy,while Neighbor Component Analysis is used to identify and rank the most influential operational variables.The study makes a significant contribution through the combination of NCA feature selection with PSO global optimization,FFNN nonlinear modelling,and K-NN error correction into one unified system,which delivers precise emission predictions.The model was developed and tested using a real-world dataset collected from gas-fired turbine operations,with validated results demonstrating robust accuracy,achieving Root Mean Square Error values of 0.355 for CO and 0.368 for NOx.When benchmarked against conventional models such as standard FFNN,Support Vector Regression,and Long Short-Term Memory networks,the hybrid model achieved substantial improvements,up to 97.8%in Mean Squared Error,95%in Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and 85.19%in RMSE for CO;and 97.16%in MSE,93.4%in MAE,and 83.15%in RMSE for NOx.These results underscore the model’s potential for improving emission prediction,thereby supporting enhanced operational efficiency and adherence to environmental standards.展开更多
The viscosity of refining slags plays a critical role in metallurgical processes.However,obtaining accurate viscosity data remains challenging due to the complexities of high-temperature experiments,often relying on e...The viscosity of refining slags plays a critical role in metallurgical processes.However,obtaining accurate viscosity data remains challenging due to the complexities of high-temperature experiments,often relying on empirical models with limited predictive capabilities.This study focuses on the influence of optical basicity on viscosity in CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-based refining slags,leveraging machine learning to address data scarcity and improve prediction accuracy.An automated framework for algorithm integration,parameter tuning,and evaluation ranking framework(Auto-APE)is employed to develop customized data-driven models for various slag systems,including CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2),CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-CaF_(2),CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2)-MgO,and CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2)-MgO-CaF_(2).By incorporating optical basicity as a key feature,the models achieve an average validation error of 8.0%to 15.1%,significantly outperforming traditional empirical models.Additionally,symbolic regression is introduced to rapidly construct domain-specific features,such as optical basicity-like descriptors,offering a potential breakthrough in performance prediction for small datasets.This work highlights the critical role of domain-specific knowledge in understanding and predicting viscosity,providing a robust machine learning-based approach for optimizing refining slag properties.展开更多
Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between...Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).展开更多
Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying ...Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.展开更多
Objective:To investigate the impact of targeted nursing interventions based on frailty prediction models on peri-hospitalization clinical outcomes in middle-aged and elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleedi...Objective:To investigate the impact of targeted nursing interventions based on frailty prediction models on peri-hospitalization clinical outcomes in middle-aged and elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB).Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted,and 126 middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB admitted from August 2024 to August 2025 were selected as the study subjects.The patients were divided into the intervention group(63 cases)and the control group(63 cases)based on whether they received nursing intervention based on frailty prediction models.The control group received routine care,while the intervention group,on the basis of routine care,used the FRAIL scale combined with laboratory indicators(albumin,hemoglobin,etc.)to establish a predictive model to evaluate patients within 24 hours of admission,and implemented multi-dimensional targeted nursing intervention for pre-frailty or frailty patients screened out.The incidence of frailty,rebleeding rate,average length of stay,hospitalization cost,and nursing satisfaction during hospitalization were compared between the two groups.Results:The incidence of frailty during hospitalization in the intervention group was 11.1%(7 cases/63 cases),significantly lower than 31.7%(20 cases/63 cases)in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(p<0.05).The rebleeding rate of 4.8%vs 12.7%,the average length of stay of(7.2±1.5)days vs(9.1±2.2)days,and the average hospitalization cost of(23,000±6,000)yuan vs(28,000±7,000)yuan in the intervention group were all lower than those in the control group(all p<0.05).The nursing satisfaction score of the intervention group(93.5±4.2)points was higher than that of the control group(86.3±5.8)points(p<0.05).Conclusion:The frailty prediction model applied to the peri-hospitalization care of middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB can effectively identify frailty risk.Through early targeted intervention,the incidence of frailty and rebleeding rate can be reduced,the length of hospital stay can be shortened,medical expenses can be reduced,and nursing satisfaction can be improved,which has clinical promotion value.展开更多
To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobje...To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.展开更多
The Leafminers,representing a diverse group of insects from various genera within the Agromyzidae family,pose a significant threat to spinach(Spinacia oleracea L.)production.This study aimed to identify single nucleot...The Leafminers,representing a diverse group of insects from various genera within the Agromyzidae family,pose a significant threat to spinach(Spinacia oleracea L.)production.This study aimed to identify single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP)markers associated with leafminer resistance through a genome-wide association study(GWAS)and to evaluate the prediction accuracy(PA)for selecting resistant spinach using genomic prediction(GP).Using a dataset of 84301 SNPs obtained from whole-genome resequencing,seven GWAS models,including BLINK,FarmCPU,MLM,and MLMM in GAPIT 3,as well as MLM,GLM,and SMR in TASSEL 5,were employed to perform GWAS on a panel of 286 USDA spinach germplasm accessions.Three SNP markers,namely 1_115279256_C_T,3_157082529_C_T,and 4_168510908_T_G on chromosomes 1,3,and 4,respectively,were identified as associated with leafminer resistance.In the 30 kb flanking regions of these markers,four candidate genes(SOV1g031330,SOV1g031340,SOV4g047270,and SOV4g047280),encoding LOB domain-containing protein,KH domain-containing protein,were discovered.Nodulin-like domain-containing protein,and SAM domain-containing protein,were discovered.The PA for leafminer resistance selection was estimated using ten different SNP sets,including two GWAS-derived marker sets(three and 51 SNPs)and eight random marker sets(ranging from 51 to 10 K SNPs)analyzed by seven GP models.The findings emphasized the superior performance of GWAS-derived SNP sets,reaching a PA of up to 0.79 using the cBLUP model.Notably,this research marks the pioneering application of GP in the context of insect resistance,providing a significant advancement in the understanding and management of leafminer resistance in spinach cultivation.展开更多
Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy...Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.展开更多
Deep learning and fatigue life prediction remain focal research areas in rail vehicle engineering.This study addresses the vibration fatigue of wheelset lifting lug in Chengdu Metro Line 1 bogies,aiming to develop a f...Deep learning and fatigue life prediction remain focal research areas in rail vehicle engineering.This study addresses the vibration fatigue of wheelset lifting lug in Chengdu Metro Line 1 bogies,aiming to develop a fatigue life prediction method for critical bogie components using deep learning models and measured track load spectra.Extensive field tests on Chengdu Metro Line 1 were conducted to acquire acceleration and stress response data of the wheelset lifting lug,generating training samples for the neural network system.Component stress responses were calculated via time-domain track acceleration and validated against in-situ stress measurements.Results show that neural network-fitted dynamic stress values exhibit excellent consistency with measured data,with errors constrained within 5%.This study validates the proposed small-sample deep learning approach as an effective and accurate solution for fatigue life prediction of critical bogie components under operational load conditions.展开更多
Soft-tissue motion introduces significant challenges in robotic teleoperation,especially in medical scenarios where precise target tracking is critical.Latency across sensing,computation,and actuation chains leads to ...Soft-tissue motion introduces significant challenges in robotic teleoperation,especially in medical scenarios where precise target tracking is critical.Latency across sensing,computation,and actuation chains leads to degraded tracking performance,particularly around high-acceleration segments and trajectory inflection points.This study investigates machine learning-based predictive compensation for latency mitigation in soft-tissue tracking.Three models—autoregressive(AR),long short-term memory(LSTM),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)—were implemented and evaluated on both synthetic and real datasets.By aligning the prediction horizon with the end-to-end system delay,we demonstrate that prediction-based compensation significantly reduces tracking errors.Among the models,TCN achieved superior robustness and accuracy on complex motion patterns,particularly in multi-step prediction tasks,and exhibited better latency–horizon compatibility.The results suggest that TCN is a promising candidate for real-time latency compensation in teleoperated robotic systems involving dynamic soft-tissue interaction.展开更多
Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)prediction on a subseasonal scale plays an important role in polar navigation.To reduce the high uncertainty of daily forecasts,three time series prediction models are combined with em...Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)prediction on a subseasonal scale plays an important role in polar navigation.To reduce the high uncertainty of daily forecasts,three time series prediction models are combined with empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition to forecast Arctic pentad-mean SIC,where each month is divided into six pentad-means–the first five each span five days,and the last encompasses the remaining days,which may vary in length.The models were trained on SIC data from 1989 to2018 and tested from 2019 to 2023,with lead times ranging from 1 to 12 pentad-means.Model skill was evaluated based on SIC spatial patterns,sea ice area(SIA),and the sea ice edge in September from 2019 to 2023.The moving-averaged 2-m temperature helps reduce the long short-term memory model's error in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.Based on the models'scores for each EOF time series,weighted ensemble prediction results were obtained.These results outperform two benchmark models across all lead times.In addition,the ensemble prediction better reproduces the seasonal cycle of the SIA,with relative errors ranging from 1.04%to 3.85%.The predicted September ice edge closely matches observations,with binary accuracy consistently above 90%.Forecast models show the lowest errors in the central Arctic,while relatively higher errors appear in the Barents and Kara Seas.展开更多
Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiote...Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.展开更多
Waves are important physical phenomena in an ocean,and their accurate prediction is essential for ocean engineering,maritime traffic,and marine early warning systems.This study focuses on the Qinhuangdao Sea area loca...Waves are important physical phenomena in an ocean,and their accurate prediction is essential for ocean engineering,maritime traffic,and marine early warning systems.This study focuses on the Qinhuangdao Sea area located in the Bohai Sea,China.Herein,we use on-site wind data to correct the reanalysis wind data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),improving the accuracy of boundary conditions.Then,we use the Simulating WAves Nearshore(SWAN)model to simulate the regional wave field over time.A regional wave-parameter prediction model is then developed using a limited number of sampled data(covering only 2 years,2020–2021);the model is based on the Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA),convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks.WOA is used to optimize the CNN and LSTM framework;in this framework,CNN extracts spatial features,and the LSTM network captures temporal features,enabling accurate short and long-term predictions of wave height,period,and direction.The experimental results showed that despite the small sample size,the model achieves a goodness of fit of 0.9957 for wave height prediction,0.9973 for period,and 0.9749 for wave direction in short-term forecasting.As the prediction step size increases,the accuracy of the model decreases.When the prediction step size reaches 9 h,the root mean square error for the prediction of wave height,period,and direction increases to 0.2060 m,0.4582 s,and32.5358°,respectively.The reliability and applicability of the model are further validated by the experimental results.Our findings highlighted the potential of the developed model in operational wave forecasting,even with a limited number of sampled data.展开更多
Excessive blasting-induced vibration during drilling-and-blasting excavation of deep tunnels can trigger geological hazards and compromise the stability of both the rock mass and support structures.This study focused ...Excessive blasting-induced vibration during drilling-and-blasting excavation of deep tunnels can trigger geological hazards and compromise the stability of both the rock mass and support structures.This study focused on the deep double-line Sejila Mountain tunnel to systematically analyze the spatial response of blasting-induced vibration and to develop a prediction model through field tests and numerical simulations.The results revealed that the presence of a cross passage significantly altered propagation paths and the spatial distribution of blasting-induced vibration velocity.The peak particle velocity(PPV)at the cross-passage corner was amplified by approximately 1.92 times due to wave reflection and geometric focusing.Blasting-induced vibration waves attenuated non-uniformly across the tunnel cross-section,where PPV on the blast-face side was 1.54–6.56 times higher than that on the opposite side.We propose an improved PPV attenuation model that accounts for the propagation path effect.This model significantly improved fitting accuracy and resolved anomalous parameter(k and a)estimates in traditional equations,thereby improving prediction reliability.Furthermore,based on the observed spatial distribution of blasting-induced vibration,optimal monitoring point placement and targeted vibration control measures for tunnel blasting were discussed.These findings provide a scientific basis for designing blasting schemes and vibration mitigation strategies in deep tunnels.展开更多
To address the issues of insufficient and imbalanced data samples in proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC)performance degradation prediction,this study proposes a data augmentation-based model to predict PEMFC per...To address the issues of insufficient and imbalanced data samples in proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC)performance degradation prediction,this study proposes a data augmentation-based model to predict PEMFC performance degradation.Firstly,an improved generative adversarial network(IGAN)with adaptive gradient penalty coefficient is proposed to address the problems of excessively fast gradient descent and insufficient diversity of generated samples.Then,the IGANis used to generate datawith a distribution analogous to real data,therebymitigating the insufficiency and imbalance of original PEMFC samples and providing the predictionmodel with training data rich in feature information.Finally,a convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-termmemory(CNN-BiLSTM)model is adopted to predict PEMFC performance degradation.Experimental results show that the data generated by the proposed IGAN exhibits higher quality than that generated by the original GAN,and can fully characterize and enrich the original data’s features.Using the augmented data,the prediction accuracy of the CNN-BiLSTM model is significantly improved,rendering it applicable to tasks of predicting PEMFC performance degradation.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
文摘The objective of the current study is to investigate an adaptive predictive observer-based autopilot for a skid-to-turn(STT)missile model with uncertainties and unknown dynamic equations.A predictive control for the STT missile is designed based on nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC)using Taylor series expansion,after which,via a neural network(NN),unknown functions are approximated.The present study also evaluates an adaptive optimal observer of a new strategy-based nonlinear system.Specifically,to estimate the missile states such as normal acceleration and its derivatives for the future,originally the Taylor series states expansion was gained to any specified order,based on their receding horizons.To address the problem of prediction error,an analytic solution was prepared that led to a closed form regarding the nonlinear optimal observer.Out of the gains resulting from the analytic solution,as developed for the problem of prediction error,the selection of the proposed observer gain was optimally conducted to meet the stability condition.Thus,combining the adaptive predictive autopilot and the adaptive optimal observer scheme was implemented to secure the performance,which needed only estimated normal acceleration and its derivatives.Meanwhile,no angular velocity measurement or wind angle estimation was required.Ultimately,the proposed technique was found effective,as confirmed by the qualitative simulation results.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province of China(No.ZR2024QE071).
文摘A complementary method to determine the vibration source intensity,defined as the weighted vertical acceleration level at the tunnel wall,is needed urgently when comparable measurements or database predictions are unavailable in empirical predictions.In this study,we present an analytical model designed to quickly and accurately estimate the vibration source intensity produced by moving metro trains,considering both regular and floating slab tracks.The improved periodic pipe-in-pipe(PiP)model with regular or floating slabs affixed to the tunnel invert was developed.The train loads are represented in the frequency-wavenumber domain to apply in the model.Measured track irregularities were applied and the proposed model was validated against the measured results and verified by a tunnel-soil coupled model.The proposed approach effectively and accurately assessed the vibration source intensity generated by underground trains in a prediction time of just 58 s.Track irregularities significantly affect the vibration source intensity,making them a key factor in comparable measurements or database predictions.A floating slab track can reduce the vibration source intensity by about 14 dB.The proposed approach can serve as an additional method to complement comparable measurements or database predictions for determining the vibration source intensity in empirical predictions.
基金funded by Scion's Strategic Science Investment Fund(SSIF)the Forest Growers Levy Trust(FGLT)through the Resilient Forests Programme(Task No.A89220)。
文摘Pinus radiata(D.Don)dominates New Zealand's forestry industry,constituting 91%of plantations,and is among the world's most important plantation species.Given the socio-economic and environmental importance of this species,it is important to have accurate and precise projections over time to make efficient decisions for forest management and greenfield investments in afforestation projects,especially for permanent carbon forests.Future projections of any natural resource systems rely on modeling;however,the acceleration of climate change makes future projections of yield less certain.These challenges also impact national expectations of the contribution planted forests will provide to address climate change and meet international commitments under the Paris Agreement.Using a large national-scale set of contemporary ground-measured data(2013–2023),this study investigates the performance of two growth models developed over 30 years ago that are widely used by NZ plantation growers:1)the Pumice Plateau Model 1988(PPM88)and 2)the 300-index(including a model variant of regional drift).Model simulations were made using the FORECASTER modeling suite with geographic boundaries to adjust for drift in space and time.Basal area(BA,m^(2)⋅ha^(-1))and volume(m^(3)⋅ha^(-1))were simulated,and standard errors and goodness-of-fit metrics calculated up to a typical rotation age of 30 years.Model residuals were then separated and analysed for the main plantation growing regions.The models overpredicted observed growth by between 6.8%and 16.2%,but model predictions and errors varied significantly between regions.The results of this study provided clear evidence of divergence between the outputs of both models and the measured data.Finally,this study suggests future measures to address challenges posed by these discrepancies that will provide better information for forest management and investment decisions in a changing climate.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U2442206,42205067,and 41922035)the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2024YFC3013100)the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences of CAS(Grant No.QYZDB-SSW-DQC017).
文摘This study reveals the critical role of multiscale interaction within the westerly wind bursts(WWBs)west of the MJO convection in modulating the prediction skill for the November MJO event during the DYNAMO(Dynamics of the Madden–Julian Oscillation)field campaign.The characteristics of the MJO convection envelope are obtained by the largescale precipitation tracking method,and a novel metric is introduced to quantify the prediction skill for the MJO convection in the ECMWF reforecast.The ECMWF forecast exhibits approximately 17 days in skillful prediction for the MJO convection—significantly lower than that derived from the global measure.The reforecast ensembles are further classified into high and low skill catalogs based on the mean prediction skill during the observed WWBs period.High-skill ensembles exhibit significantly enhanced low-level westerlies,amplified MJO convection,and reduced spatial separation between the low-level westerlies and MJO convection during the WWBs period,indicating stronger coupling between the large-scale circulation and the convection.Mechanistic analysis reveals that enhanced westerlies in high-skill ensembles can transfer more high-frequency energy to the MJO convection through the flux convergence of interaction energy for MJO convection development,resulting in better prediction skill.
文摘Thermal power plants are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions.The prediction of the emission supports the decision makers and environmental sustainability.The objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of emission prediction models,supporting more effective real-time monitoring and enabling informed operational decisions that align with environmental compliance efforts.This paper presents a data-driven approach for the accurate prediction of gas emissions,specifically nitrogen oxides(NOx)and carbon monoxide(CO),in natural gas power plants using an optimized hybrid machine learning framework.The proposed model integrates a Feedforward Neural Network(FFNN)trained using Particle Swarm Optimization to capture the nonlinear emission dynamics under varying gas turbine operating conditions.To further enhance predictive performance,the K-Nearest Neighbor(K-NN)algorithm serves as a post-processing method to enhance IPSO-FFNN predictions through adjustment and refinement,improving overall prediction accuracy,while Neighbor Component Analysis is used to identify and rank the most influential operational variables.The study makes a significant contribution through the combination of NCA feature selection with PSO global optimization,FFNN nonlinear modelling,and K-NN error correction into one unified system,which delivers precise emission predictions.The model was developed and tested using a real-world dataset collected from gas-fired turbine operations,with validated results demonstrating robust accuracy,achieving Root Mean Square Error values of 0.355 for CO and 0.368 for NOx.When benchmarked against conventional models such as standard FFNN,Support Vector Regression,and Long Short-Term Memory networks,the hybrid model achieved substantial improvements,up to 97.8%in Mean Squared Error,95%in Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and 85.19%in RMSE for CO;and 97.16%in MSE,93.4%in MAE,and 83.15%in RMSE for NOx.These results underscore the model’s potential for improving emission prediction,thereby supporting enhanced operational efficiency and adherence to environmental standards.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFB3712401),the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52274301)the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(No.2023Z0530S6005)the Ningbo Yongjiang Talent-Introduction Programme(No.2022A-023-C).
文摘The viscosity of refining slags plays a critical role in metallurgical processes.However,obtaining accurate viscosity data remains challenging due to the complexities of high-temperature experiments,often relying on empirical models with limited predictive capabilities.This study focuses on the influence of optical basicity on viscosity in CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-based refining slags,leveraging machine learning to address data scarcity and improve prediction accuracy.An automated framework for algorithm integration,parameter tuning,and evaluation ranking framework(Auto-APE)is employed to develop customized data-driven models for various slag systems,including CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2),CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-CaF_(2),CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2)-MgO,and CaO-Al_(2)O_(3)-SiO_(2)-MgO-CaF_(2).By incorporating optical basicity as a key feature,the models achieve an average validation error of 8.0%to 15.1%,significantly outperforming traditional empirical models.Additionally,symbolic regression is introduced to rapidly construct domain-specific features,such as optical basicity-like descriptors,offering a potential breakthrough in performance prediction for small datasets.This work highlights the critical role of domain-specific knowledge in understanding and predicting viscosity,providing a robust machine learning-based approach for optimizing refining slag properties.
基金J.YANG was supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42475022,42261144671)the National Key R&D Program of China(Project No.2024YFC3013100)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesM.LU was supported by the Otto Poon Centre of Climate Resilience and Sustainability at HKUST and the Hong Kong Research Grant Committee(Project No.16300424)Data processing and storage were supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).
文摘Customer churn is the rate at which customers discontinue doing business with a company over a given time period.It is an essential measure for businesses to monitor high churn rates,as they often indicate underlying issues with services,products,or customer experience,resulting in considerable income loss.Prediction of customer churn is a crucial task aimed at retaining customers and maintaining revenue growth.Traditional machine learning(ML)models often struggle to capture complex temporal dependencies in client behavior data.To address this,an optimized deep learning(DL)approach using a Regularized Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory(RBiLSTM)model is proposed to mitigate overfitting and improve generalization error.The model integrates dropout,L2-regularization,and early stopping to enhance predictive accuracy while preventing over-reliance on specific patterns.Moreover,this study investigates the effect of optimization techniques on boosting the training efficiency of the developed model.Experimental results on a recent public customer churn dataset demonstrate that the trained model outperforms the traditional ML models and some other DL models,such as Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)and Deep Neural Network(DNN),in churn prediction performance and stability.The proposed approach achieves 96.1%accuracy,compared with LSTM and DNN,which attain 94.5%and 94.1%accuracy,respectively.These results confirm that the proposed approach can be used as a valuable tool for businesses to identify at-risk consumers proactively and implement targeted retention strategies.
基金Construction and Application of Frailty Trajectory Prediction Model for Middle-aged and Elderly Patients with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding,Project Source:Sichuan Vocational College of Nursing(Project No.:2024ZRY25)。
文摘Objective:To investigate the impact of targeted nursing interventions based on frailty prediction models on peri-hospitalization clinical outcomes in middle-aged and elderly patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB).Methods:A prospective cohort study was conducted,and 126 middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB admitted from August 2024 to August 2025 were selected as the study subjects.The patients were divided into the intervention group(63 cases)and the control group(63 cases)based on whether they received nursing intervention based on frailty prediction models.The control group received routine care,while the intervention group,on the basis of routine care,used the FRAIL scale combined with laboratory indicators(albumin,hemoglobin,etc.)to establish a predictive model to evaluate patients within 24 hours of admission,and implemented multi-dimensional targeted nursing intervention for pre-frailty or frailty patients screened out.The incidence of frailty,rebleeding rate,average length of stay,hospitalization cost,and nursing satisfaction during hospitalization were compared between the two groups.Results:The incidence of frailty during hospitalization in the intervention group was 11.1%(7 cases/63 cases),significantly lower than 31.7%(20 cases/63 cases)in the control group,and the difference was statistically significant(p<0.05).The rebleeding rate of 4.8%vs 12.7%,the average length of stay of(7.2±1.5)days vs(9.1±2.2)days,and the average hospitalization cost of(23,000±6,000)yuan vs(28,000±7,000)yuan in the intervention group were all lower than those in the control group(all p<0.05).The nursing satisfaction score of the intervention group(93.5±4.2)points was higher than that of the control group(86.3±5.8)points(p<0.05).Conclusion:The frailty prediction model applied to the peri-hospitalization care of middle-aged and elderly patients with UGIB can effectively identify frailty risk.Through early targeted intervention,the incidence of frailty and rebleeding rate can be reduced,the length of hospital stay can be shortened,medical expenses can be reduced,and nursing satisfaction can be improved,which has clinical promotion value.
基金Supported by State Grid Corporation of China Science and Technology Project:Research on Key Technologies for Intelligent Carbon Metrology in Vehicle-to-Grid Interaction(Project Number:B3018524000Q).
文摘To achieve low-carbon regulation of electric vehicle(EV)charging loads under the“dual carbon”goals,this paper proposes a coordinated scheduling strategy that integrates dynamic carbon factor prediction and multiobjective optimization.First,a dual-convolution enhanced improved Crossformer prediction model is constructed,which employs parallel 1×1 global and 3×3 local convolutionmodules(Integrated Convolution Block,ICB)formultiscale feature extraction,combinedwith anAdaptive Spectral Block(ASB)to enhance time-series fluctuationmodeling.Based on high-precision predictions,a carbon-electricity cost joint optimization model is further designed to balance economic,environmental,and grid-friendly objectives.The model’s superiority was validated through a case study using real-world data from a renewable-heavy grid.Simulation results show that the proposed multi-objective strategy demonstrated a superior balance compared to baseline and benchmark models,achieving a 15.8%reduction in carbon emissions and a 5.2%reduction in economic costs,while still providing a substantial 22.2%reduction in the peak-valley difference.Its balanced performance significantly outperformed both a single-objective strategy and a state-of-the-art Model Predictive Control(MPC)benchmark,highlighting the advantage of a global optimization approach.This study provides theoretical and technical pathways for dynamic carbon factor-driven EV charging optimization.
基金supported by USDA-SCRI(Grant Nos.2017-51181-26830 and 2023-51181-41321)USDA-AMS SCMP(Grant No.16SCCMAR0001)+1 种基金Arkansas Department of Agriculture SCBGP(Grant No.AM22SCBGPAR1130-00)USDA NIFA Hatch project ARK0VG2018 and ARK02440.
文摘The Leafminers,representing a diverse group of insects from various genera within the Agromyzidae family,pose a significant threat to spinach(Spinacia oleracea L.)production.This study aimed to identify single nucleotide polymorphism(SNP)markers associated with leafminer resistance through a genome-wide association study(GWAS)and to evaluate the prediction accuracy(PA)for selecting resistant spinach using genomic prediction(GP).Using a dataset of 84301 SNPs obtained from whole-genome resequencing,seven GWAS models,including BLINK,FarmCPU,MLM,and MLMM in GAPIT 3,as well as MLM,GLM,and SMR in TASSEL 5,were employed to perform GWAS on a panel of 286 USDA spinach germplasm accessions.Three SNP markers,namely 1_115279256_C_T,3_157082529_C_T,and 4_168510908_T_G on chromosomes 1,3,and 4,respectively,were identified as associated with leafminer resistance.In the 30 kb flanking regions of these markers,four candidate genes(SOV1g031330,SOV1g031340,SOV4g047270,and SOV4g047280),encoding LOB domain-containing protein,KH domain-containing protein,were discovered.Nodulin-like domain-containing protein,and SAM domain-containing protein,were discovered.The PA for leafminer resistance selection was estimated using ten different SNP sets,including two GWAS-derived marker sets(three and 51 SNPs)and eight random marker sets(ranging from 51 to 10 K SNPs)analyzed by seven GP models.The findings emphasized the superior performance of GWAS-derived SNP sets,reaching a PA of up to 0.79 using the cBLUP model.Notably,this research marks the pioneering application of GP in the context of insect resistance,providing a significant advancement in the understanding and management of leafminer resistance in spinach cultivation.
基金financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2023YFB3812601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51925401)the Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST, China (No. 2022QNRC001)。
文摘Machine learning-assisted methods for rapid and accurate prediction of temperature field,mushy zone,and grain size were proposed for the heating−cooling combined mold(HCCM)horizontal continuous casting of C70250 alloy plates.First,finite element simulations of casting processes were carried out with various parameters to build a dataset.Subsequently,different machine learning algorithms were employed to achieve high precision in predicting temperature fields,mushy zone locations,mushy zone inclination angle,and billet grain size.Finally,the process parameters were quickly optimized using a strategy consisting of random generation,prediction,and screening,allowing the mushy zone to be controlled to the desired target.The optimized parameters are 1234℃for heating mold temperature,47 mm/min for casting speed,and 10 L/min for cooling water flow rate.The optimized mushy zone is located in the middle of the second heat insulation section and has an inclination angle of roughly 7°.
基金supported by the CRRC Original Technology TenYear Cultivation Program(Grant No.2022CYY007)。
文摘Deep learning and fatigue life prediction remain focal research areas in rail vehicle engineering.This study addresses the vibration fatigue of wheelset lifting lug in Chengdu Metro Line 1 bogies,aiming to develop a fatigue life prediction method for critical bogie components using deep learning models and measured track load spectra.Extensive field tests on Chengdu Metro Line 1 were conducted to acquire acceleration and stress response data of the wheelset lifting lug,generating training samples for the neural network system.Component stress responses were calculated via time-domain track acceleration and validated against in-situ stress measurements.Results show that neural network-fitted dynamic stress values exhibit excellent consistency with measured data,with errors constrained within 5%.This study validates the proposed small-sample deep learning approach as an effective and accurate solution for fatigue life prediction of critical bogie components under operational load conditions.
基金Support by Sichuan Science and Technology Program[2023YFSY0026,2023YFH0004]Guangzhou Huashang University[2024HSZD01,HS2023JYSZH01].
文摘Soft-tissue motion introduces significant challenges in robotic teleoperation,especially in medical scenarios where precise target tracking is critical.Latency across sensing,computation,and actuation chains leads to degraded tracking performance,particularly around high-acceleration segments and trajectory inflection points.This study investigates machine learning-based predictive compensation for latency mitigation in soft-tissue tracking.Three models—autoregressive(AR),long short-term memory(LSTM),and temporal convolutional network(TCN)—were implemented and evaluated on both synthetic and real datasets.By aligning the prediction horizon with the end-to-end system delay,we demonstrate that prediction-based compensation significantly reduces tracking errors.Among the models,TCN achieved superior robustness and accuracy on complex motion patterns,particularly in multi-step prediction tasks,and exhibited better latency–horizon compatibility.The results suggest that TCN is a promising candidate for real-time latency compensation in teleoperated robotic systems involving dynamic soft-tissue interaction.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2023YFC2809101)the Laoshan Laboratory Technology Innovation Project(No.LSKJ202202301)。
文摘Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)prediction on a subseasonal scale plays an important role in polar navigation.To reduce the high uncertainty of daily forecasts,three time series prediction models are combined with empirical orthogonal function(EOF)decomposition to forecast Arctic pentad-mean SIC,where each month is divided into six pentad-means–the first five each span five days,and the last encompasses the remaining days,which may vary in length.The models were trained on SIC data from 1989 to2018 and tested from 2019 to 2023,with lead times ranging from 1 to 12 pentad-means.Model skill was evaluated based on SIC spatial patterns,sea ice area(SIA),and the sea ice edge in September from 2019 to 2023.The moving-averaged 2-m temperature helps reduce the long short-term memory model's error in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas.Based on the models'scores for each EOF time series,weighted ensemble prediction results were obtained.These results outperform two benchmark models across all lead times.In addition,the ensemble prediction better reproduces the seasonal cycle of the SIA,with relative errors ranging from 1.04%to 3.85%.The predicted September ice edge closely matches observations,with binary accuracy consistently above 90%.Forecast models show the lowest errors in the central Arctic,while relatively higher errors appear in the Barents and Kara Seas.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0106800]an Innovation Group Project of the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number 311024001]+3 种基金a project supported by the Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)[grant number SML2023SP209]a Research Council of Norway funded project(MAPARC)[grant number 328943]a Nansen Center´s basic institutional funding[grant number 342624]the high-performance computing support from the School of Atmospheric Science at Sun Yat-sen University。
文摘Current shipping,tourism,and resource development requirements call for more accurate predictions of the Arctic sea-ice concentration(SIC).However,due to the complex physical processes involved,predicting the spatiotemporal distribution of Arctic SIC is more challenging than predicting its total extent.In this study,spatiotemporal prediction models for monthly Arctic SIC at 1-to 3-month leads are developed based on U-Net-an effective convolutional deep-learning approach.Based on explicit Arctic sea-ice-atmosphere interactions,11 variables associated with Arctic sea-ice variations are selected as predictors,including observed Arctic SIC,atmospheric,oceanic,and heat flux variables at 1-to 3-month leads.The prediction skills for the monthly Arctic SIC of the test set(from January 2018 to December 2022)are evaluated by examining the mean absolute error(MAE)and binary accuracy(BA).Results showed that the U-Net model had lower MAE and higher BA for Arctic SIC compared to two dynamic climate prediction systems(CFSv2 and NorCPM).By analyzing the relative importance of each predictor,the prediction accuracy relies more on the SIC at the 1-month lead,but on the surface net solar radiation flux at 2-to 3-month leads.However,dynamic models show limited prediction skills for surface net solar radiation flux and other physical processes,especially in autumn.Therefore,the U-Net model can be used to capture the connections among these key physical processes associated with Arctic sea ice and thus offers a significant advantage in predicting Arctic SIC.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52071057,52171247)the Liaoning Youth Elite Talent Program(No.XLYC220309)。
文摘Waves are important physical phenomena in an ocean,and their accurate prediction is essential for ocean engineering,maritime traffic,and marine early warning systems.This study focuses on the Qinhuangdao Sea area located in the Bohai Sea,China.Herein,we use on-site wind data to correct the reanalysis wind data obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),improving the accuracy of boundary conditions.Then,we use the Simulating WAves Nearshore(SWAN)model to simulate the regional wave field over time.A regional wave-parameter prediction model is then developed using a limited number of sampled data(covering only 2 years,2020–2021);the model is based on the Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA),convolutional neural networks(CNNs),and long short-term memory(LSTM)neural networks.WOA is used to optimize the CNN and LSTM framework;in this framework,CNN extracts spatial features,and the LSTM network captures temporal features,enabling accurate short and long-term predictions of wave height,period,and direction.The experimental results showed that despite the small sample size,the model achieves a goodness of fit of 0.9957 for wave height prediction,0.9973 for period,and 0.9749 for wave direction in short-term forecasting.As the prediction step size increases,the accuracy of the model decreases.When the prediction step size reaches 9 h,the root mean square error for the prediction of wave height,period,and direction increases to 0.2060 m,0.4582 s,and32.5358°,respectively.The reliability and applicability of the model are further validated by the experimental results.Our findings highlighted the potential of the developed model in operational wave forecasting,even with a limited number of sampled data.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42577209 and U22A20239)the Key R&D Program of Hunan Province(No.2024WK2004)the Key Technologies for Accurate Diagnosis and Intelligent Prevention and Control of Slope Hazards in Open pit Mines,181 Major R&D projects of Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd。
文摘Excessive blasting-induced vibration during drilling-and-blasting excavation of deep tunnels can trigger geological hazards and compromise the stability of both the rock mass and support structures.This study focused on the deep double-line Sejila Mountain tunnel to systematically analyze the spatial response of blasting-induced vibration and to develop a prediction model through field tests and numerical simulations.The results revealed that the presence of a cross passage significantly altered propagation paths and the spatial distribution of blasting-induced vibration velocity.The peak particle velocity(PPV)at the cross-passage corner was amplified by approximately 1.92 times due to wave reflection and geometric focusing.Blasting-induced vibration waves attenuated non-uniformly across the tunnel cross-section,where PPV on the blast-face side was 1.54–6.56 times higher than that on the opposite side.We propose an improved PPV attenuation model that accounts for the propagation path effect.This model significantly improved fitting accuracy and resolved anomalous parameter(k and a)estimates in traditional equations,thereby improving prediction reliability.Furthermore,based on the observed spatial distribution of blasting-induced vibration,optimal monitoring point placement and targeted vibration control measures for tunnel blasting were discussed.These findings provide a scientific basis for designing blasting schemes and vibration mitigation strategies in deep tunnels.
基金supported by the Jiangsu Engineering Research Center of the Key Technology for Intelligent Manufacturing Equipment and the Suqian Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing(Grant No.M202108).
文摘To address the issues of insufficient and imbalanced data samples in proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC)performance degradation prediction,this study proposes a data augmentation-based model to predict PEMFC performance degradation.Firstly,an improved generative adversarial network(IGAN)with adaptive gradient penalty coefficient is proposed to address the problems of excessively fast gradient descent and insufficient diversity of generated samples.Then,the IGANis used to generate datawith a distribution analogous to real data,therebymitigating the insufficiency and imbalance of original PEMFC samples and providing the predictionmodel with training data rich in feature information.Finally,a convolutional neural network-bidirectional long short-termmemory(CNN-BiLSTM)model is adopted to predict PEMFC performance degradation.Experimental results show that the data generated by the proposed IGAN exhibits higher quality than that generated by the original GAN,and can fully characterize and enrich the original data’s features.Using the augmented data,the prediction accuracy of the CNN-BiLSTM model is significantly improved,rendering it applicable to tasks of predicting PEMFC performance degradation.
