The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manua...The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to 'observation' (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by 'on-off' switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.展开更多
The effects of different convective parameterization,explicit moisture schemes and surface heat- ing on the meso-β scale structure of a squall line system are investigated,by using an improved mesoscale model.It is f...The effects of different convective parameterization,explicit moisture schemes and surface heat- ing on the meso-β scale structure of a squall line system are investigated,by using an improved mesoscale model.It is found that the successful prediction of mesoscale convective systems hinges up- on not only the sub-grid scale convection,but also the resolvable scale phase change processes and the diurnal variation in the boundary layer.The simultaneous operation of the Fritsch-Chappell convective scheme with parameterized moist downdrafts and the prognostic equations for cloud water (ice) and rainwater (snow) seems to be essential in simulating realistically MCSs and reducing or eliminating the unrealistic development of the CISK-like instability associated with the squall line system.展开更多
基金NSF grant ATM-9812729NOAA grant NA77WA0571Qiao is also supported by the Chinese National Key Basic Research Project under Contract G1999043809
文摘The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to 'observation' (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by 'on-off' switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.
文摘The effects of different convective parameterization,explicit moisture schemes and surface heat- ing on the meso-β scale structure of a squall line system are investigated,by using an improved mesoscale model.It is found that the successful prediction of mesoscale convective systems hinges up- on not only the sub-grid scale convection,but also the resolvable scale phase change processes and the diurnal variation in the boundary layer.The simultaneous operation of the Fritsch-Chappell convective scheme with parameterized moist downdrafts and the prognostic equations for cloud water (ice) and rainwater (snow) seems to be essential in simulating realistically MCSs and reducing or eliminating the unrealistic development of the CISK-like instability associated with the squall line system.
